Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-525-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-525-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Feb 2016
Research article |
| 29 Feb 2016
A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: from raw data to rates of change
Niamh Cahill
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Mathematics and Statistics, CASL, Earth Institute, University College Dublin, Ireland
Dept. of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA
Andrew C. Kemp
Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Tufts University, USA
Benjamin P. Horton
Department of Marine & Coastal Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, USA
The Earth Observatory of Singapore and the Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
Andrew C. Parnell
School of Mathematics and Statistics, CASL, Earth Institute, University College Dublin, Ireland
Related authors
No articles found.
Zhi Yang Koh, Benjamin S. Grandey, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Adam D. Switzer, Benjamin P. Horton, Justin Dauwels, and Lock Yue Chew
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-294, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Identifying tide-surge interaction (TSI) can be a complex task. We enhance existing statistical methods with a more robust test that accounts for complex tides, and investigate the influence of tidal phase alteration on TSI using a semi-empirical model. We apply these techniques to tide-gauge records from the east coast of Singapore and Malaysia. We found TSI at all studied locations, and that tidal phase alteration can change the timing of large surges with minimal impact on their height.
Benjamin S. Grandey, Zhi Yang Koh, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Benjamin P. Horton, Justin Dauwels, and Lock Yue Chew
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6593–6608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models are susceptible to spurious trends known as drift. Fortunately, drift can be corrected when analysing data produced by models. To explore the uncertainty associated with drift correction, we develop a new method: Monte Carlo drift correction. For historical simulations of thermosteric sea level rise, drift uncertainty is relatively large. When analysing data susceptible to drift, researchers should consider drift uncertainty.
André Düsterhus, Alessio Rovere, Anders E. Carlson, Benjamin P. Horton, Volker Klemann, Lev Tarasov, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Tom Bradwell, Jorie Clark, Andrea Dutton, W. Roland Gehrels, Fiona D. Hibbert, Marc P. Hijma, Nicole Khan, Robert E. Kopp, Dorit Sivan, and Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Clim. Past, 12, 911–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This review/position paper addresses problems in creating new interdisciplinary databases for palaeo-climatological sea-level and ice-sheet data and gives an overview on new advances to tackle them. The focus therein is to define and explain strategies and highlight their importance to allow further progress in these fields. It also offers important insights into the general problem of designing competitive databases which are also applicable to other communities within the palaeo-environment.
T. K. Doan, J. Haslett, and A. C. Parnell
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 1, 15–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-15-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-15-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
A global compilation of diatom silica oxygen isotope records from lake sediment – trends and implications for climate reconstruction
BrGDGT-based seasonal paleotemperature reconstruction for the last 15 000 years from a shallow lake on the eastern Tibetan Plateau
Reconstructing 15 000 years of southern France temperatures from coupled pollen and molecular (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether) markers (Canroute, Massif Central)
Pollen-based reconstructions of Holocene climate trends in the eastern Mediterranean region
A Holocene history of climate, fire, landscape evolution, and human activity in Northeast Iceland
Spatiotemporal Intertropical Convergence Zone dynamics during the last 3 millennia in northeastern Brazil and related impacts in modern human history
Holocene climates of the Iberian Peninsula: pollen-based reconstructions of changes in the west–east gradient of temperature and moisture
Holocene climate and oceanography of the coastal Western United States and California Current System
Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation
Long-term trends in diatom diversity and palaeoproductivity: a 16 000-year multidecadal record from Lake Baikal, southern Siberia
A 406-year non-growing-season precipitation reconstruction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Climatic variations during the Holocene inferred from radiocarbon and stable carbon isotopes in speleothems from a high-alpine cave
Winter–spring warming in the North Atlantic during the last 2000 years: evidence from southwest Iceland
Climate reconstructions based on GDGT and pollen surface datasets from Mongolia and Baikal area: calibrations and applicability to extremely cold–dry environments over the Late Holocene
Sampling density and date along with species selection influence spatial representation of tree-ring reconstructions
Changes in high-intensity precipitation on the northern Apennines (Italy) as revealed by multidisciplinary data over the last 9000 years
Neoglacial trends in diatom dynamics from a small alpine lake in the Qinling mountains of central China
Centennial- to millennial-scale monsoon changes since the last deglaciation linked to solar activities and North Atlantic cooling
Algal lipids reveal unprecedented warming rates in alpine areas of SW Europe during the industrial period
Reconstructing seasonality through stable-isotope and trace-element analyses of the Proserpine stalagmite, Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium: indications for climate-driven changes during the last 400 years
Two millennia of Main region (southern Germany) hydroclimate variability
Combining a pollen and macrofossil synthesis with climate simulations for spatial reconstructions of European climate using Bayesian filtering
Lignin oxidation products as a potential proxy for vegetation and environmental changes in speleothems and cave drip water – a first record from the Herbstlabyrinth, central Germany
How dry was the Younger Dryas? Evidence from a coupled δ2H–δ18O biomarker paleohygrometer applied to the Gemündener Maar sediments, Western Eifel, Germany
Siberian tree-ring and stable isotope proxies as indicators of temperature and moisture changes after major stratospheric volcanic eruptions
The 4.2 ka BP Event in the Mediterranean region: an overview
Technical note: Optimizing the utility of combined GPR, OSL, and Lidar (GOaL) to extract paleoenvironmental records and decipher shoreline evolution
The onset of neoglaciation in Iceland and the 4.2 ka event
Hydroclimatic variations in southeastern China during the 4.2 ka event reflected by stalagmite records
Fire, vegetation, and Holocene climate in a southeastern Tibetan lake: a multi-biomarker reconstruction from Paru Co
Climate impact on the development of Pre-Classic Maya civilisation
Synchronizing 10Be in two varved lake sediment records to IntCal13 14C during three grand solar minima
Technical note: Open-paleo-data implementation pilot – the PAGES 2k special issue
A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications
Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework
Three distinct Holocene intervals of stalagmite deposition and nondeposition revealed in NW Madagascar, and their paleoclimate implications
Examining bias in pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions induced by human impact on vegetation in China
A dual-biomarker approach for quantification of changes in relative humidity from sedimentary lipid D∕H ratios
Pseudo-proxy tests of the analogue method to reconstruct spatially resolved global temperature during the Common Era
Development and evaluation of a system of proxy data assimilation for paleoclimate reconstruction
A chironomid-based mean July temperature inference model from the south-east margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China
Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world
Quantitative reconstruction of summer precipitation using a mid-Holocene δ13C common millet record from Guanzhong Basin, northern China
North Atlantic Oscillation controls on oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in winter precipitation across Europe; implications for palaeoclimate studies
A 368-year maximum temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring data in the northwestern Sichuan Plateau (NWSP), China
Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model
A high-altitude peatland record of environmental changes in the NW Argentine Andes (24 ° S) over the last 2100 years
Technical note: The Linked Paleo Data framework – a common tongue for paleoclimatology
Inferring climate variability from nonlinear proxies: application to palaeo-ENSO studies
Technical Note: How accurate can stalagmite formation temperatures be determined using vapour bubble radius measurements in fluid inclusions?
Philip Meister, Anne Alexandre, Hannah Bailey, Philip Barker, Boris K. Biskaborn, Ellie Broadman, Rosine Cartier, Bernhard Chapligin, Martine Couapel, Jonathan R. Dean, Bernhard Diekmann, Poppy Harding, Andrew C. G. Henderson, Armand Hernandez, Ulrike Herzschuh, Svetlana S. Kostrova, Jack Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, Andreas Lücke, Anson W. Mackay, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Biljana Narancic, Cécile Porchier, Gunhild Rosqvist, Aldo Shemesh, Corinne Sonzogni, George E. A. Swann, Florence Sylvestre, and Hanno Meyer
Clim. Past, 20, 363–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-363-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first comprehensive compilation of diatom oxygen isotope records in lake sediments (δ18OBSi), supported by lake basin parameters. We infer the spatial and temporal coverage of δ18OBSi records and discuss common hemispheric trends on centennial and millennial timescales. Key results are common patterns for hydrologically open lakes in Northern Hemisphere extratropical regions during the Holocene corresponding to known climatic epochs, i.e. the Holocene Thermal Maximum.
Xiaohuan Hou, Nannan Wang, Zhe Sun, Kan Yuan, Xianyong Cao, and Juzhi Hou
Clim. Past, 20, 335–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-335-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ice-free season temperature based on brGDGTs over last 15 kyr on the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The result shows that Holocene Thermal Maximum occurred during 8–3.5 ka, which lags behind pollen-based temperature recorded in same core, indicating a significant seasonal bias between different proxies. We also investigated previously published brGDGT-based temperatures on the TP to determine the pattern of Holocene temperature changes and possible reasons for the diverse records.
Léa d'Oliveira, Lucas Dugerdil, Guillemette Ménot, Allowen Evin, Serge D. Muller, Salomé Ansanay-Alex, Julien Azuara, Colline Bonnet, Laurent Bremond, Mehmet Shah, and Odile Peyron
Clim. Past, 19, 2127–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In southern Europe, Holocene climate variability is characterized by a strong heterogeneity whose patterns are still poorly understood. Here, a multi-proxy approach (pollen and biomarkers) is applied to the Canroute sequence to reconstruct the climatic variation over the last 15 000 years in southern Massif Central, France. Results reveal that reconstructions of regional climate trends notably differ depending on proxies and sites, notably concerning the presence of a Holocene thermal maximum.
Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Sandy P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, Elena Marinova, Patrick J. Bartlein, Hans Renssen, and Yurui Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 2093–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examined 71 pollen records (12.3 ka to present) in the eastern Mediterranean, reconstructing climate changes. Over 9000 years, winters gradually warmed due to orbital factors. Summer temperatures peaked at 4.5–5 ka, likely declining because of ice sheets. Moisture increased post-11 kyr, remaining high from 10–6 kyr before a slow decrease. Climate models face challenges in replicating moisture transport.
Nicolò Ardenghi, David John Harning, Jonathan Henrik Raberg, Brooke René Holman, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, and Julio Sepúlveda
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-74, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing a sediment record from Stóra Viðarvatn (NE Iceland), we reveal how natural factors and human activities influenced environmental changes (erosion, wildfires) over the last 11,000 years. We found increased fire activity around 3,000 and 1,500 years ago, predating human settlement, likely driven by natural factors like precipitation shifts. Declining summer temperatures increased erosion vulnerability, exacerbated by farming and animal husbandry, which in turn may have reduced wildfires.
Giselle Utida, Francisco W. Cruz, Mathias Vuille, Angela Ampuero, Valdir F. Novello, Jelena Maksic, Gilvan Sampaio, Hai Cheng, Haiwei Zhang, Fabio Ramos Dias de Andrade, and R. Lawrence Edwards
Clim. Past, 19, 1975–1992, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1975-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) behavior during the past 3000 years over northeastern Brazil based on oxygen stable isotopes of stalagmites. Paleoclimate changes were mainly forced by the tropical South Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We describe an ITCZ zonal behavior active around 1100 CE and the period from 1500 to 1750 CE. The dataset also records historical droughts that affected modern human population in this area of Brazil.
Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Penelope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 19, 803–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the Holocene climates in the Iberian Peninsula using a large pollen data set and found that the west–east moisture gradient was much flatter than today. We also found that the winter was much colder, which can be expected from the low winter insolation during the Holocene. However, summer temperature did not follow the trend of summer insolation, instead, it was strongly correlated with moisture.
Hannah M. Palmer, Veronica Padilla Vriesman, Caitlin M. Livsey, Carina R. Fish, and Tessa M. Hill
Clim. Past, 19, 199–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand and contextualize modern climate change, this systematic review synthesizes climate and oceanographic patterns in the Western United States and California Current System through the most recent 11.75 kyr. Through a literature review and coded analysis of past studies, we identify distinct environmental phases through time and linkages between marine and terrestrial systems. We explore climate change impacts on ecosystems and human–environment interactions.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Anson W. Mackay, Vivian A. Felde, David W. Morley, Natalia Piotrowska, Patrick Rioual, Alistair W. R. Seddon, and George E. A. Swann
Clim. Past, 18, 363–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-363-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-363-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the diversity of algae called diatoms in Lake Baikal, the oldest and deepest lake in the world, because algae sit at the base of aquatic foodwebs and provide energy (in the form of primary production) for other organisms to use. Diatom diversity and primary production have been influenced by both long-term and abrupt climate change over the past 16 000 years. The shape of these responses appears to be time-period specific.
Maierdang Keyimu, Zongshan Li, Bojie Fu, Guohua Liu, Fanjiang Zeng, Weiliang Chen, Zexin Fan, Keyan Fang, Xiuchen Wu, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 17, 2381–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We created a residual tree-ring width chronology and reconstructed non-growth-season precipitation (NGSP) over the period spanning 1600–2005 in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP), China. Reconstruction model verification as well as similar variations of NGSP reconstruction and Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstructions from the surrounding region indicate the reliability of the present reconstruction. Our reconstruction is representative of NGSP variability of a large region in the SETP.
Caroline Welte, Jens Fohlmeister, Melina Wertnik, Lukas Wacker, Bodo Hattendorf, Timothy I. Eglinton, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 17, 2165–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2165-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2165-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stalagmites are valuable climate archives, but unlike other proxies the use of stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) is still difficult. A stalagmite from the Austrian Alps was analyzed using a new laser ablation method for fast radiocarbon (14C) analysis. This allowed 14C and δ13C to be combined, showing that besides soil and bedrock a third source is contributing during periods of warm, wet climate: old organic matter.
Nora Richter, James M. Russell, Johanna Garfinkel, and Yongsong Huang
Clim. Past, 17, 1363–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1363-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of winter–spring temperatures developed using organic proxies preserved in well-dated lake sediments from southwest Iceland to assess seasonal temperature changes in the North Atlantic region over the last 2000 years. The gradual warming trend observed in our record is likely influenced by sea surface temperatures, which are sensitive to changes in ocean circulation and seasonal insolation, during the winter and spring season.
Lucas Dugerdil, Sébastien Joannin, Odile Peyron, Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot, Boris Vannière, Bazartseren Boldgiv, Julia Unkelbach, Hermann Behling, and Guillemette Ménot
Clim. Past, 17, 1199–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1199-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Since the understanding of Holocene climate change appears to be a relevant issue for future climate change, the paleoclimate calibrations have to be improved. Here, surface samples from Mongolia and Siberia were analyzed to provide new calibrations for pollen and biomarker climate models. These calibrations appear to be more powerful than global calibrations, especially in an arid central Asian context. These calibrations will improve the understanding of monsoon Holocene oscillations.
Justin T. Maxwell, Grant L. Harley, Trevis J. Matheus, Brandon M. Strange, Kayla Van Aken, Tsun Fung Au, and Joshua C. Bregy
Clim. Past, 16, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1901-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1901-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We found that increasing the density of chronologies in the tree-ring network resulted in estimated soil moisture conditions that better matched the spatial variability of the values that were instrumentally recorded for droughts and, to a lesser extent, pluvials. By sampling trees in 2010 compared to 1980, the sensitivity of tree rings to soil moisture decreased in the southern portion of our region, where severe drought conditions have been absent over recent decades.
Stefano Segadelli, Federico Grazzini, Veronica Rossi, Margherita Aguzzi, Silvia Marvelli, Marco Marchesini, Alessandro Chelli, Roberto Francese, Maria Teresa De Nardo, and Sandro Nanni
Clim. Past, 16, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In an attempt to consolidate trends in the hydrological cycle induced by recent warming, we conducted a multidisciplinary study combining meteorological data, climate proxies from the literature, and original coring and pollen data acquired in an area that has been hit by record-breaking precipitation events. A detailed study of recent flash-flood deposits compared with fossil peat bog and lake sediments supports the expected increase in precipitation intensity during warm climatic phases.
Bo Cheng, Jennifer Adams, Jianhui Chen, Aifeng Zhou, Qing Zhang, and Anson W. Mackay
Clim. Past, 16, 543–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-543-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Qinling mountains in China are biodiversity rich. We studied one of the high-latitude lakes on Mount Taibai with a view to looking at how aquatic diversity responded to long-term changes in climate over the past 3500 years. We specifically looked at a group of single-celled algae called diatoms, as they are very sensitive to the environment. We found that these algae changed gradually over time, but they showed abrupt change during the period known as the Little Ice Age, about 400 years ago.
Xingxing Liu, Youbin Sun, Jef Vandenberghe, Peng Cheng, Xu Zhang, Evan J. Gowan, Gerrit Lohmann, and Zhisheng An
Clim. Past, 16, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon are anticorrelated on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. The centennial monsoon variability is connected to changes of both solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events during the Early Holocene. Then, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of events during the Late Holocene. This work presents the great challenge and potential to understand the response of the monsoon system to global climate changes in the past and the future.
Antonio García-Alix, Jaime L. Toney, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Carmen Pérez-Martínez, Laura Jiménez, Marta Rodrigo-Gámiz, R. Scott Anderson, Jon Camuera, Francisco J. Jiménez-Espejo, Dhais Peña-Angulo, and María J. Ramos-Román
Clim. Past, 16, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-245-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we identify warming thresholds, rates, and forcing mechanisms from a novel alpine temperature record of the southern Iberian Peninsula during the Common Era in order to contextualize the modern warming and its potential impact on these vulnerable alpine ecosystems. To do so, we have developed and applied the first lacustrine temperature calibration in alpine lakes for algal compounds, called long-chain alkyl diols, which is a significant advance in biomarker paleothermometry.
Stef Vansteenberge, Niels J. de Winter, Matthias Sinnesael, Sophie Verheyden, Steven Goderis, Stijn J. M. Van Malderen, Frank Vanhaecke, and Philippe Claeys
Clim. Past, 16, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-141-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We measured the chemical composition (trace-element concentrations and stable-isotope ratios) of a Belgian speleothem that deposited annual layers. Our sub-annual resolution dataset allows us to investigate how the chemistry of this speleothem recorded changes in the environment and climate in northwestern Europe. We then use this information to reconstruct climate change during the 16th and 17th century on the seasonal scale and demonstrate that environmental change drives speleothem chemistry.
Alexander Land, Sabine Remmele, Jutta Hofmann, Daniel Reichle, Margaret Eppli, Christian Zang, Allan Buras, Sebastian Hein, and Reiner Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 15, 1677–1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1677-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1677-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
With the use of precipitation sensitive oak ring-width series from the Main River region (southern Germany) a 2000-year long hydroclimate reconstruction has been developed. The ring series are sensitive to the sum of rainfall from 26 February to 6 July. This region suffered from severe, long-lasting droughts in the past two millennia (e.g., AD 500/510s, 940s, 1170s, 1390s and 1160s). In the AD 550s, 1050s, 1310s and 1480s, multi-year periods with high rainfall hit the region.
Nils Weitzel, Andreas Hense, and Christian Ohlwein
Clim. Past, 15, 1275–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new method for probabilistic spatial reconstructions of past climate states is presented, which combines pollen data with a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations in a Bayesian framework. The approach is applied to reconstruct summer and winter temperature in Europe during the mid-Holocene. Our reconstructions account for multiple sources of uncertainty and are well suited for quantitative statistical analyses of the climate under different forcing conditions.
Inken Heidke, Denis Scholz, and Thorsten Hoffmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1025–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1025-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1025-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first quantitative study of lignin biomarkers in stalagmites and cave drip water. Lignin is only produced by higher plants; therefore, its analysis can be used to reconstruct the vegetation of the past. We compared our lignin results with stable isotope and trace element records from the same samples and found correlations or similarities with P, Ba, U and Mg concentrations as well as δ13C values. These results can help to better interpret other vegetation proxies.
Johannes Hepp, Lorenz Wüthrich, Tobias Bromm, Marcel Bliedtner, Imke Kathrin Schäfer, Bruno Glaser, Kazimierz Rozanski, Frank Sirocko, Roland Zech, and Michael Zech
Clim. Past, 15, 713–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-713-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-713-2019, 2019
Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Marina V. Fonti, Matthias Saurer, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Patrick Fonti, Vladimir S. Myglan, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Oksana V. Naumova, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Alexander V. Shashkin, Irina P. Panyushkina, Ulf Büntgen, Malcolm K. Hughes, Eugene A. Vaganov, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 15, 685–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a unique dataset of multiple tree-ring and stable isotope parameters, representing temperature-sensitive Siberian ecotones, to assess climatic impacts after six large stratospheric volcanic eruptions at 535, 540, 1257, 1640, 1815, and 1991 CE. Besides the well-documented effects of temperature derived from tree-ring width and latewood density, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose provide information about moisture and sunshine duration changes after the events.
Monica Bini, Giovanni Zanchetta, Aurel Perşoiu, Rosine Cartier, Albert Català, Isabel Cacho, Jonathan R. Dean, Federico Di Rita, Russell N. Drysdale, Martin Finnè, Ilaria Isola, Bassem Jalali, Fabrizio Lirer, Donatella Magri, Alessia Masi, Leszek Marks, Anna Maria Mercuri, Odile Peyron, Laura Sadori, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Fabian Welc, Christoph Zielhofer, and Elodie Brisset
Clim. Past, 15, 555–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-555-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean region has returned some of the clearest evidence of a climatically dry period occurring approximately 4200 years ago. We reviewed selected proxies to infer regional climate patterns between 4.3 and 3.8 ka. Temperature data suggest a cooling anomaly, even if this is not uniform, whereas winter was drier, along with dry summers. However, some exceptions to this prevail, where wetter condition seems to have persisted, suggesting regional heterogeneity.
Amy J. Dougherty, Jeong-Heon Choi, Chris S. M. Turney, and Anthony Dosseto
Clim. Past, 15, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, 2019
Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, John T. Andrews, David J. Harning, Leif S. Anderson, Christopher Florian, Darren J. Larsen, and Thor Thordarson
Clim. Past, 15, 25–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-25-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-25-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Compositing climate proxies in sediment from seven Iceland lakes documents abrupt summer cooling between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, statistically indistinguishable from 4.2 ka. Although the decline in summer insolation was an important factor, a combination of superposed changes in ocean circulation and explosive Icelandic volcanism were likely responsible for the abrupt perturbation recorded by our proxies. Lake and catchment proxies recovered to a colder equilibrium state following the perturbation.
Haiwei Zhang, Hai Cheng, Yanjun Cai, Christoph Spötl, Gayatri Kathayat, Ashish Sinha, R. Lawrence Edwards, and Liangcheng Tan
Clim. Past, 14, 1805–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1805-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1805-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The collapses of several Neolithic cultures in China are considered to have been associated with abrupt climate change during the 4.2 ka BP event; however, the hydroclimate of this event in China is still poorly known. Based on stalagmite records from monsoonal China, we found that north China was dry but south China was wet during this event. We propose that the rain belt remained longer at its southern position, giving rise to a pronounced humidity gradient between north and south China.
Alice Callegaro, Dario Battistel, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Felipe Matsubara Pereira, Torben Kirchgeorg, Maria del Carmen Villoslada Hidalgo, Broxton W. Bird, and Carlo Barbante
Clim. Past, 14, 1543–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1543-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1543-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Holocene fires and vegetation are reconstructed using different molecular markers with a single analytical method, applied for the first time to lake sediments from Tibet. The early Holocene shows oscillations between grasses and conifers, with smouldering fires represented by levoglucosan peaks, and high-temperature fires represented by PAHs. The lack of human FeSts excludes local human influence on fire and vegetation changes. Late Holocene displays an increase in local to regional combustion.
Kees Nooren, Wim Z. Hoek, Brian J. Dermody, Didier Galop, Sarah Metcalfe, Gerald Islebe, and Hans Middelkoop
Clim. Past, 14, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1253-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1253-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present two new palaeoclimatic records for the central Maya lowlands, adding valuable new insights to the impact of climate change on the development of Maya civilisation. Lake Tuspan's diatom record is indicative of precipitation changes at a local scale, while a beach ridge elevation record from the world's largest late Holocene beach ridge plain provides a regional picture.
Markus Czymzik, Raimund Muscheler, Florian Adolphi, Florian Mekhaldi, Nadine Dräger, Florian Ott, Michał Słowinski, Mirosław Błaszkiewicz, Ala Aldahan, Göran Possnert, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 14, 687–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-687-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our results provide a proof of concept for facilitating 10Be in varved lake sediments as a novel synchronization tool required for investigating leads and lags of proxy responses to climate variability. They also point to some limitations of 10Be in these archives mainly connected to in-lake sediment resuspension processes.
Darrell S. Kaufman and PAGES 2k special-issue editorial team
Clim. Past, 14, 593–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-593-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We explain the procedure used to attain a high and consistent level of data stewardship across a special issue of the journal Climate of the Past. We discuss the challenges related to (1) determining which data are essential for public archival, (2) using data generated by others, and (3) understanding data citations. We anticipate that open-data sharing in paleo sciences will accelerate as the advantages become more evident and as practices that reduce data loss become the accepted convention.
Haipeng Wang, Jianhui Chen, Shengda Zhang, David D. Zhang, Zongli Wang, Qinghai Xu, Shengqian Chen, Shijin Wang, Shichang Kang, and Fahu Chen
Clim. Past, 14, 383–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-383-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The chironomid-inferred temperature record from Gonghai Lake exhibits a stepwise decreasing trend since 4 ka. A cold event in the Era of Disunity, the Sui-Tang Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age can all be recognized in our record, as well as in many other temperature reconstructions in China. Local wars in Shanxi Province, documented in the historical literature during the past 2700 years, are statistically significantly correlated with changes in temperature.
Hansi K. A. Singh, Gregory J. Hakim, Robert Tardif, Julien Emile-Geay, and David C. Noone
Clim. Past, 14, 157–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-157-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is prominent in the climate system. We study the AMO over the last 2000 years using a novel proxy framework, the Last Millennium Reanalysis. We find that the AMO is linked to continental warming, Arctic sea ice retreat, and an Atlantic precipitation shift. Low clouds decrease globally. We find no distinct multidecadal spectral peak in the AMO over the last 2 millennia, suggesting that human activities may have enhanced the AMO in the modern era.
Ny Riavo Gilbertinie Voarintsoa, Loren Bruce Railsback, George Albert Brook, Lixin Wang, Gayatri Kathayat, Hai Cheng, Xianglei Li, Richard Lawrence Edwards, Amos Fety Michel Rakotondrazafy, and Marie Olga Madison Razanatseheno
Clim. Past, 13, 1771–1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1771-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1771-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This research has been an investigation of two stalagmites from two caves in NW Madagascar to reconstruct the region's paleoenvironmental changes, and to understand the linkage of such changes to the dynamics of the ITCZ. Stable isotopes, mineralogy, and petrography suggest wetter climate conditions than today during the early and late Holocene, when the mean ITCZ was south, and drier during the mid-Holocene when the ITCZ was north.
Wei Ding, Qinghai Xu, and Pavel E. Tarasov
Clim. Past, 13, 1285–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1285-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1285-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Pollen-based past climate reconstruction for regions with long-term human occupation is always controversial. We examined the bias induced by the human impact on vegetation in a climate reconstruction for temperate eastern China by comparing the deviations in the reconstructed results for a fossil record based on two pollen–climate calibration sets. Climatic signals in pollen assemblages are indeed obscured by human impact; however, the extent of the bias could be assessed.
Oliver Rach, Ansgar Kahmen, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 13, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-741-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Currently, reconstructions of past changes in the hydrological cycle are usually qualitative, which is a major drawback for testing the accuracy of models in predicting future responses. Here we present a proof of concept of a novel approach to deriving quantitative paleohydrological data, i.e. changes in relative humidity, from lacustrine sediment archives, employing a combination of organic geochemical methods and plant physiological modeling.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Atsushi Okazaki and Kei Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 13, 379–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Data assimilation has been successfully applied in the field of paleoclimatology to reconstruct past climate. However, data reconstructed from proxies have been assimilated, as opposed to the actual proxy values, which prevented full utilization of the information recorded in the proxies. This study propose a new data assimilation system in which actual proxy data are directly assimilated.
Enlou Zhang, Jie Chang, Yanmin Cao, Hongqu Tang, Pete Langdon, James Shulmeister, Rong Wang, Xiangdong Yang, and Ji Shen
Clim. Past, 13, 185–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-185-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-185-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports the first development of sub-fossil chironomid-based mean July temperature transfer functions from China. The transfer functions yield reliable reconstructions that are comparable to the instrumental record. The application of this new tool will provide long-term quantitative palaeoclimate estimates from south-western China which is a critical region for understanding the dynamic and evolution of the Indian Ocean south-west Monsoon system.
Kira Rehfeld, Mathias Trachsel, Richard J. Telford, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 12, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Indirect evidence on past climate comes from the former composition of ecological communities such as plants, preserved as pollen grains in sediments of lakes. Transfer functions convert relative counts of species to a climatologically meaningful scale (e.g. annual mean temperature in degrees C). We show that the fundamental assumptions in the algorithms impact the reconstruction results in he idealized model world, in particular if the reconstructed variables were not ecologically relevant.
Qing Yang, Xiaoqiang Li, Xinying Zhou, Keliang Zhao, and Nan Sun
Clim. Past, 12, 2229–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2229-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2229-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The fossilized seeds of common millet are suited to the production of quantitative Holocene precipitation reconstructions. Our reconstructed results showed that summer precipitation from 7.7–3.4 ka BP was ~ 50 mm, or 17 % higher than present levels. Maximal mean summer precipitation peaked at 414 mm during 6.1–5.5 ka BP, ~ 109 mm, or 36 % higher than today, indicating the EASM peaked at this time. This work can provide a new proxy for further research into continuous paleoprecipitation sequences.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Liangjun Zhu, Yuandong Zhang, Zongshan Li, Binde Guo, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 12, 1485–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1485-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 368-year late summer maximum temperature reconstruction based on spruce tree rings. It touches on the critical topic of climate reconstruction in the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau and represents an extension and enhancement of climate records for this area. The Little Ice Age was well represented and 20th century warming was not obvious in this reconstruction. This temperature variation may be affected by global land–sea atmospheric circulation as well as solar and volcanic forcing.
Frazer Matthews-Bird, Stephen J. Brooks, Philip B. Holden, Encarni Montoya, and William D. Gosling
Clim. Past, 12, 1263–1280, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1263-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1263-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Chironomidae are a family of two-winged aquatic fly of the order Diptera. The family is species rich (> 5000 described species) and extremely sensitive to environmental change, particualy temperature. Across the Northern Hemisphere, chironomids have been widely used as paleotemperature proxies as the chitinous remains of the insect are readily preserved in lake sediments. This is the first study using chironomids as paleotemperature proxies in tropical South America.
Karsten Schittek, Sebastian T. Kock, Andreas Lücke, Jonathan Hense, Christian Ohlendorf, Julio J. Kulemeyer, Liliana C. Lupo, and Frank Schäbitz
Clim. Past, 12, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1165-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1165-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Cushion peatlands are versatile climate archives for the study of past environmental changes. We present the environmental history for the last 2100 years of Cerro Tuzgle peatland, which is located in the NW Argentine Puna. The results reflect prominent late Holocene climate anomalies and provide evidence that Northern Hemisphere climate oscillations were extensive. Volcanic forcing at the beginning of the 19th century seems to have had an impact on climatic settings in the Central Andes
Nicholas P. McKay and Julien Emile-Geay
Clim. Past, 12, 1093–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1093-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The lack of accepted data formats and data standards in paleoclimatology is a growing problem that slows progress in the field. Here, we propose a preliminary data standard for paleoclimate data, general enough to accommodate all the proxy and measurement types encountered in a large international collaboration (PAGES 2k). We also introduce a data format for such structured data (Linked Paleo Data, or LiPD), leveraging recent advances in knowledge representation (Linked Open Data).
J. Emile-Geay and M. Tingley
Clim. Past, 12, 31–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-31-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-31-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Ignoring nonlinearity in palaeoclimate records (e.g. continental run-off proxies) runs the risk of severely overstating changes in climate variability. Even with the correct model and parameters, some information is irretrievably lost by such proxies. However, we find that a simple empirical transform can do much to improve the situation, and makes them amenable to classical analyses. Doing so on two palaeo-ENSO records markedly changes some of the quantitative inferences made from such records.
F. Spadin, D. Marti, R. Hidalgo-Staub, J. Rička, D. Fleitmann, and M. Frenz
Clim. Past, 11, 905–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-905-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Fluid inclusions inside stalagmites retain information on the cave temperature at the time they formed and thus can be used to reconstruct the continental climate of the past. A method for extracting this information based on a thermodynamic model and size measurements of femtosecond-laser-induced vapour bubbles is presented. Applying our method to stalagmites taken from the Milandre cave in the Swiss Jura Mountains demonstrate that palaeotemperatures can be determined with an accuracy of ±1°C.
Cited articles
Barlow, N. L. M., Long, A. J., Saher, M. H., Gehrels, W. R., Garnett, M. H.,
and Scaife, R. G.: Salt-marsh reconstructions of relative sea-level change in
the North Atlantic during the last 2000 years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 99, 1–16, 2014.
Birks, H. J.: Overview of numerical methods in palaeolimnology, in:
Tracking
Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments: Data Handling and
Numerical Techniques, edited by: Birks, H., Lotter, A., Juggins, S., and
Smol, J., vol. 5 of Tracking environmental change using lake
sediments, book section 2, Springer, 2012.
Birks, H. J. B.: Quantitative Palaeoenvironmental Reconstructions, in:
Statistical Modelling of Quaternary Science Data, edited by: Maddy,
D. and Brew, J. S., vol. Technical Guide 5 of Technical Guide,
161–254, Quaternary Research Association, Cambridge, 1995.
Birks, H. J. B., Line, J. M., Juggins, S., Stevenson, A. C., and ter Braak,
C.
J. F.: Diatoms and pH Reconstruction, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 327, 263–278, 1990.
Birks, J.: Calibration, Transfer Functions and Environmental
Reconstructions, in: PAGES, 2010.
Blaauw, M. and Christen, J. A.: Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using
an
autoregressive gamma process, Bayesian Anal., 457–474, 2011.
Bradley, R. S.: Chapter 1 – Paleoclimatic Reconstruction, in:
Paleoclimatology (Third Edition), edited by: Bradley, R. S., 1–11,
Academic Press, San Diego, third edition edn., 2015.
Bronk Ramsey, C.: Radiocarbon Dating: Revolutions in Understanding,
Archaeometry, 50, 249–275, 2008.
Cahill, N., Kemp, A. C., Horton, B. P., and Parnell, A. C.: Modeling
Sea-Level
Change using Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Processes, Ann. Appl. Stat., 9, 547–571, 2015.
Charman, D. J., Gehrels, W. R., Manning, C., and Sharma, C.: Reconstruction
of
recent sea-level change using testate amoebae, Quaternary Res., 73,
208–219, 2010.
De Boor, C.: A Practical Guide to Splines, Springer, 1978.
de Rijk, S.: Salinity control on the distribution of salt marsh foraminifera
(Great Marshes, Massachusetts), J. Foramin. Res.,
25, 156–166, 1995.
Dey, D. K., Ghosh, S. K., and Mallick, B. K.: Generalized Linear Models
A Bayesian Perspective, Marcel Dekker, Inc, 2000.
Dierckx, P.: Curve and Surface Fitting with Splines, Clarendon Press,
Oxford,
1993.
Douglas, B. C.: Global sea level rise, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
96, 6981–6992, 1991.
Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto,
R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise due to
polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349,
4019, 2015.
Edwards, R. and Wright, A. J.: Foraminifera, in: Handbook of Sea-Level
Research, edited by: Shennan, I., Long, A. J., and Horton, B. P., book
section 13, 191–217, John Wiley & Sons, 2015.
Edwards, R. J. and Horton, B. P.: Developing detailed records of relative
sea-level change using a foraminiferal transfer function: an example from
North Norfolk, UK, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 364, 973–991, 2006.
Edwards, R. J., Wright, A. J., and van de Plassche, O.: Surface distributions
of salt-marsh foraminifera from Connecticut, USA: modern analogues for
high-resolution sea level studies, Mar. Micropaleontol., 51, 1–21, 2004.
Fritz, S. C., Juggins, S., Battarbee, R. W., and Engstrom, D.: Reconstruction
of past changes in salinity and climate using a diatom-based transfer
function, Nature, 352, 706–708, 1991.
Gehrels, W. R.: Determining Relative Sea-Level Change from Salt-Marsh
Foraminifera and Plant Zones on the Coast of Maine, USA, J. Coast. Res., 10, 990–1009, 1994.
Gehrels, W. R.: Using foraminiferal transfer functions to produce
high-resolution sea-level records from salt-marsh deposits, Maine, USA,
Holocene, 10, 367–376, 2000.
Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A. E.: Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction,
and
Estimation, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 102, 359–378,
2007.
Greig-Smith, P.: Correlation with Habitat Factors, in: Quantitative Plant
Ecology, edited by: Anderson, D. J., Greig-Smith, P., and Pitelka, F. A.,
book section 5, 129–145, University of California Press, Berkeley and
Los Angeles, 1983.
Haslett, J. and Parnell, A. C.: A simple monotone process with application to
radiocarbon-dated depth chronologies, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-App., 57, 399–418, 2008.
Haslett, J., Whiley, M., Bhattacharya, S., Salter-Townshend, M., Wilson,
S. P.,
Allen, J. R. M., Huntley, B., and Mitchell, F. J. G.: Bayesian palaeoclimate
reconstruction, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. A-Sta., 169, 395–438, 2006.
Holsclaw, T., Sanso, B., Lee, H. K. H., Heitmann, K., Habib, S., Higdon, D.,
and Alam, U.: Gaussian Process Modeling of Derivative Curves, Technometrics,
55, 57–67, 2013.
Horton, B. P. and Edwards, R. J.: The application of local and regional
transfer functions to the reconstruction of Holocene sea levels, north
Norfolk, England, Holocene, 15, 216–228, 2005.
Horton, B. P. and Edwards, R. J.: Quantifying Holocene sea-level change
using
intertidal foraminifera: lessons from the British Isles, Cushman
Foundation for Foraminiferal Research, Special Publication, 40, 97, 2006.
Horton, B. P., Edwards, R. J., and Lloyd, J. M.: UK intertidal
foraminiferal
distributions: implications for sea-level studies, Mar. Micropaleontol.,
36, 205–223, 1999.
Imbrie, J. and Kipp, N. G.: A new micropalaeontological method for
quantitative
paleoclimatology: application to a late Pleistocene Caribbean core, in:
The Late Cenozoic Glacial Ages, edited by: Turekian, K. K.,
71–181, Yale University Press, New Haven and London, 1971.
Jackson, S. T. and Williams, J. W.: Modern analogs in Quaternary
paleoecology: Here today, gone yesterday, gone tomorrow?, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 32, 495–537, 2004.
Juggins, S. and Birks, H. J.: Quantiative Environmental Reconstructions
From Biological Data, in: Tracking Environmental Change Using
Lake Sediments: Data Handling and Numerical Techniques, edited
by:
Birks, H., Lotter, A., Juggins, S., and Smol, J., vol. 5 of Tracking
environmental change using lake sediments, 431–494, Springer, 2012.
Kemp, A. C., Horton, B. P., Corbett, D. R., Culver, S. J., Edwards, R. J.,
and
van de Plassche, O.: The relative utility of foraminifera and diatoms for
reconstructing late Holocene sea-level change in North Carolina, USA,
Quaternary Res., 71, 9–21, 2009a.
Kemp, A. C., Horton, B. P., Culver, S. J., Corbett, D. R., van de Plassche,
O.,
Gehrels, W. R., Douglas, B. C., and Parnell, A. C.: Timing and magnitude of
recent accelerated sea-level rise (North Carolina, United States),
Geology, 37, 1035–1038, 2009b.
Kemp, A. C., Horton, B. P., Donnelly, J. P., Mann, M. E., Vermeer, M., and
Rahmstorf, S.: Climate related sea-level variations over the past two
millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108,
11017–11022, 2011.
Kemp, A. C., Vane, C. H., Horton, B. P., Engelhart, S. E., and Nikitina, D.:
Application of stable carbon isotopes for reconstructing salt-marsh floral
zones and relative sea level, New Jersey, USA, J. Quaternary Sci., 27, 404–414, 2012.
Kemp, A. C., Horton, B. P., Vane, C. H., Corbett, D. R., Bernhardt, C. E.,
Engelhart, S. E., Anisfeld, S. C., Parnell, A. C., and Cahill, N.: Sea-level
change during the last 2500 years in New Jersey, USA, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 81, 90–104, 2013a.
Kemp, A. C., Telford, R. J., Horton, B. P., Anisfeld, S. C., and Sommerfield,
C. K.: Reconstructing Holocene sea-level using salt-marsh foraminifera and
transfer functions: lessons from New Jersey, USA, J. Quaternary Sci., 28, 617–629, 2013b.
Korsman, T. and Birks, H. J.: Diatom-based water chemistry reconstructions
from
northern Sweden: a comparison of reconstruction techniques, J. Paleolimnol., 15, 65–77, 1996.
Leorri, E., Horton, B. P., and Cearreta, A.: Development of a
foraminifera-based transfer function in the Basque marshes, N. Spain:
Implications for sea-level studies in the Bay of Biscay, Mar. Geol.,
251, 60–74, 2008.
Li, B., Nychka, D. W., and Ammann, C. M.: The value of multiproxy
reconstruction of past climate, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 105, 883–895, 2010.
Long, A. J., Barlow, N. L. M., Gehrels, W. R., Saher, M. H., Woodworth,
P. L.,
Scaife, R. G., Brain, M. J., and Cahill, N.: Contrasting records of sea-level
change in the eastern and western North Atlantic during the last 300
years, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 388, 110–122, 2014.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K.,
Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., and Ni, F.: Global Signatures and
Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate
Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256–1260, 2009.
Murray, J. W.: Ecology and Palaeoecology of Benthic Foraminifera,
Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1991.
Nelson, A. R.: Coastal sediments, in: Handbook of Sea-Level Research,
edited by: Shennan, I., Long, A. J., and Horton, B. P., 47–65, John Wiley
& Sons, 2015.
Nelson, A. R., Jennings, A. E., and Kashima, K.: An earthquake history
derived
from stratigraphic and microfossil evidence of relative sea-level change at
Coos Bay, southern coastal Oregon, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 108, 141–154, 1996.
Nelson, A. R., Sawai, Y., Jennings, A. E., Bradley, L., Gerson, L., Sherrod,
B. L., Sabean, J., and Horton, B. P.: Great-earthquake paleogeodesy and
tsunamis of the past 2000 years at Alsea Bay, central Oregon coast,
USA, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 747–768, 2008.
Parnell, A. C. and Gehrels, W. R.: Using chronological models in late
Holocene sea-level reconstructions from salt marsh sediments, in:
Handbook of Sea-Level Research, edited by: Shennan, I., Long, A. J., and
Horton, B. P., book section 32, 500–513, John Wiley & Sons, 2015.
Parnell, A. C., Buck, C. E., and Doan, T. K.: A review of statistical
chronology models for high-resolution, proxy-based Holocene
palaeoenvironmental reconstruction, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30,
2948–2960, 2011.
Parnell, A. C., Sweeney, J., Doan, T. K., Salter-Townshend, M., Allen, J.
R. M., Huntley, B., and Haslett, J.: Bayesian inference for palaeoclimate
with time uncertainty and stochastic volatility, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-App., 64, 115–138, 2015.
Plater, A. J., Kirby, J. R., Boyle, J. F., Shaw, T., and Mills, H.: Loss on
ignition and organic content, in: Handbook of Sea-Level Research,
edited by: Shennan, I., Long, A. J., and Horton, B. P., 312–330, John
Wiley & Sons, 2015.
Plummer, M.: JAGS: A program for analysis of Bayesian graphical models
using Gibbs sampling, in: Proceedings of the 3rd International
Workshop on Distributed Statistical Computing, 2003.
Rasmussen, C. E.: Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning, MIT Press,
2006.
Roe, H. M., Charman, D. J., and Gehrels, R. W.: Fossil testate amoebae in
coastal deposits in the UK: implications for studies of sea-level change,
J. Quaternary Sci., 17, 411–429, 2002.
Rymer, L.: The use of uniformitarianism and analogy in palaeoecology,
particularly pollen analysis, in: Biology and Quaternary Environments, edited
by: Walker, D. and Guppy, J. C., 245–257, Australian Academy of Sciences,
Canberra, 1978.
Scott, D. B. and Medioli, F. S.: Vertical zonations of marsh foraminifera as
accurate indicators of former sea levels, Nature, 272, 528–531, 1978.
Shennan, I., Innes, J. B., Long, A. J., and Zong, Y.: Late Devensian and
Holocene relative sealevel changes at Loch nan Eala, near Arisaig,
northwest Scotland, J. Quaternary Sci., 9, 261–283, 1994.
Shennan, I., Rutherford, M. M., Innes, J. B., and Walker, K. J.: Late glacial
sea level and ocean margin environmental changes interpreted from
biostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic studies of isolation basins in
northwest Scotland, Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 111,
229–244, 1996.
Steno, N.: Nicolai Stenonis De solido intra solidum naturaliter contento
dissertationis prodromus, Ex typographia sub signo stellae, Florentiae,
1669.
ter Braak, C. J. and Juggins, S.: Weighted averaging partial least squares
regression (WA-PLS): an improved method for reconstructing environmental
variables from species assemblages, Hydrobiologia, 269–270, 485–502, 1993.
Tingley, M. P., Craigmile, P. F., Haran, M., Li, B., Mannshardt, E., and
Rajaratnam, B.: Piecing together the past: statistical insights into
paleoclimatic reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 35, 1–22, 2012.
Toivonen, H. T. T., Mannila, H., Korhola, A., and Olander, H.: Applying
bayesian statistics to organism-based environmental reconstruction,
Ecol. Appl., 11, 618–630, 2000.
Tolwinski-Ward, S., Tingley, M., Evans, M., Hughes, M., and Nychka, D.:
Probabilistic reconstructions of local temperature and soil moisture from
tree-ring data with potentially time-varying climatic response, Climate
Dynamics, 44, 791–806, 2015.
Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.: Uncertainty quantification for a climatology of the
frequency and spatial distribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclone
landfalls, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 7, 305–319, 2015.
Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., Anchukaitis, K. J., and Evans, M. N.: Bayesian parameter estimation
and interpretation for an intermediate model of tree-ring width, Clim. Past, 9, 1481–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1481-2013, 2013.
Vasko, K., Toivonen, H. T., and Korhola, A.: A Bayesian multinomial
Gaussian response model for organism-based environmental reconstruction,
J. Paleolimnol., 24, 243–250, 2000.
Wright, A. J., Edwards, R. J., and van de Plassche, O.: Reassessing
transfer-function performance in sea-level reconstruction based on benthic
salt-marsh foraminifera from the Atlantic coast of NE North America,
Mar. Micropaleontol., 81, 43–62, 2011.
Zong, Y. and Horton, B. P.: Diatom-based tidal-level transfer functions as an
aid in reconstructing Quaternary history of sea-level movements in the
UK, J. Quaternary Sci., 14, 153–167, 1999.
Short summary
We propose a Bayesian model for the reconstruction and analysis of former sea levels. The model provides a single, unifying framework for reconstructing and analyzing sea level through time with fully quantified uncertainty. We illustrate our approach using a case study of Common Era (last 2000 years) sea levels from New Jersey.
We propose a Bayesian model for the reconstruction and analysis of former sea levels. The model...
