Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations
Svenja E. Bierstedt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht,
Geesthacht, Germany
Birgit Hünicke
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht,
Geesthacht, Germany
Eduardo Zorita
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht,
Geesthacht, Germany
Sebastian Wagner
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht,
Geesthacht, Germany
Juan José Gómez-Navarro
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics
Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research,
University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, and Juliane Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 639–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We statistically analyse the relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern Baltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the long-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at an interannual resolution.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2222, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with a satisfactorily predictability (70 % correct predictions) using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 to 20 %. We could identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time the method can be used as a pre-warning system triggering the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Nele Tim, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-147, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Our study analyses extreme precipitation over southern Africa in regional high-resolution atmospheric simulations of the past and future. We investigated heavy precipitation over Southern Africa, coastal South Africa, Cape Town, and the KwaZulu-Natal province in eastern South Africa. Coastal precipitation extremes are projected to intensify, double in intensity in KwaZulu-Natal, and weaken in Cape Town. Extremes are not projected to occur more often in the 21st century than in the last decades.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-21, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The prediction of extreme coastal sea level, e.g. caused by a storm surge, is operationally carried out with dynamical computer models. These models are expensive to run and still display some limitations in predicting the height of extremes. We present a successful purely data-driven machine learning model to predict extreme sea levels along the Baltic Sea coast a few days in advance. The method is also able to identify the critical predictors for the different Baltic Sea regions.
Zeguo Zhang, Sebastian Wagner, Marlene Klockmann, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 18, 2643–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network was employed for the first time for past temperature field reconstructions. The LSTM method tested in our experiments using a limited calibration and validation dataset shows worse reconstruction skills compared to traditional reconstruction methods. However, a certain degree of reconstruction performance achieved by the nonlinear LSTM method shows that skill can be achieved even when using small samples with limited datasets.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13353–13368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13353-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Given the hazardous nature of medicanes, studies focused on understanding and quantifying the processes governing their formation have become paramount for present and future disaster risk reduction. Therefore, enhancing the modeling and forecasting capabilities of such events is of crucial importance. In this sense, the authors find that the microphysical processes, and specifically the wind--sea salt aerosol feedback, play a key role in their development and thus should not be neglected.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
Aleix Cortina-Guerra, Juan José Gomez-Navarro, Belen Martrat, Juan Pedro Montávez, Alessandro Incarbona, Joan O. Grimalt, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, and P. Graham Mortyn
Clim. Past, 17, 1523–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1523-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
During late 20th century a singular Mediterranean circulation episode called the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) event occurred. It involved changes on the seawater physical and biogeochemical properties, which can impact areas broadly. Here, using paleosimulations for the last 1000 years we found that the East Atlantic/Western Russian atmospheric mode was the main driver of the EMT-type events in the past, and enhancement of this mode was coetaneous with low solar insolation.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 17, 721–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-721-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-721-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The similarity between indirect observations of past climates and information from climate simulations can increase our understanding of past climates. The further we look back, the more uncertain our indirect observations become. Here, we discuss the technical background for such a similarity-based approach to reconstruct past climates for up to the last 15 000 years. We highlight the potential and the problems.
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6051–6075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6051-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows TITAM, a time-independent tracking algorithm specifically suited for Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, often referred to as medicanes. The methodology developed has the capacity to track multiple simultaneous cyclones, the ability to track a medicane in the presence of intense extratropical lows, and the potential to separate the medicane from other similar structures by handling the intermittent loss of structure and managing the tilting of the axis.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Sergio Cohuo, Laura Macario-González, Sebastian Wagner, Katrin Naumann, Paula Echeverría-Galindo, Liseth Pérez, Jason Curtis, Mark Brenner, and Antje Schwalb
Biogeosciences, 17, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-145-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-145-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated how freshwater ostracode species responded to long-term and abrupt climate fluctuations during the last 155 kyr in the northern Neotropical region. We used fossil records and species distribution modelling. Fossil evidence suggests negligible effects of long-term climate variations on aquatic niche stability. Models suggest that abrupt climate fluctuation forced species to migrate south to Central America. Micro-refugia and meta-populations can explain survival of endemic species.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Maria Pyrina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1129–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions try to extract a climate signal from paleo-observations. It is essential to understand their uncertainties. Similarly, comparing climate simulations and paleo-observations requires approaches to address their uncertainties. We describe a simple but flexible noise model for climate proxies for temperature on millennial timescales, which can assist these goals.
Salvador Gil-Guirado, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Clim. Past, 15, 1303–1325, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1303-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1303-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The historical climatology has remarkable research potentialities. However, historical climatology has some methodological limitations. This study presents a new methodology (COST) that allows us to perform climate reconstructions with monthly resolution. The variability of the climatic series obtained are coherent with previous studies. The new proposed method is objective and is not affected by social changes, which allows us to perform studies in regions with different languages and cultures.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Xing Yi, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-63, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the outputs of Earth System Models to investigate the Arabian Sea upwelling for the last 1000 years and in the 21st century. Due to the orbital forcing of the models, the upwelling in the past is found to reveal a negative long-term trend, which matches the observed sediment records. In the future under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and thus interrupts the upwelling.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 69–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the contribution of atmospheric factors to interannual off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea region. We identified a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely linked to sea-level variability than the NAO. The inverse barometer effect contributes to that link in the winter and summer seasons. Freshwater flux is connected to the link in summer and net heat flux in winter.The new atmospheric-pattern-related wind forcing plays an important role in summer.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1031–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We statistically analysed the mechanisms of the variability in decadal sea-level trends for the whole Baltic Sea basin over the last century. We used two different sea-level data sets and several climatic data sets. The results of this study showed that precipitation has a lagged effect on decadal sea-level trend variations from which the signature of atmospheric effect is removed. This detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Maria Pyrina, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 13, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017, 2017
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, and Juliane Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 639–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We statistically analyse the relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern Baltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the long-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at an interannual resolution.
Martina Messmer, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Low-pressure systems of type Vb may trigger heavy rainfall events over central Europe. This study aims at analysing the relative role of their moisture sources. For this, a set of sensitivity experiments encompassing changes in soil moisture and Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea SSTs are carried out with WRF. The latter moisture source stands out as the most relevant one. Furthermore, the regions most affected by Vb events in the future might be shifted from the Alps to the Balkan Peninsula.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xing Yi and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-124, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we study the upwelling in the Arabian Sea simulated in two Earth System Models for the last millennium and for the 21st century. Revealing a negative long-term trend due to the model orbital forcing, the upwelling over the last millennium is strongly correlated with the SST, the Indian summer Monsoon and the G.bulloides abundance observed in the sediment records. In the future scenarios the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and hinder the upwelling.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, Xing Yi, and Kay-Christian Emeis
Ocean Sci., 12, 807–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-807-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of external climate forcing on the four eastern boundary upwelling systems is investigated for the recent past and future. Under increased radiative forcing, upwelling-favourable winds should strengthen due to unequal heating of land and oceans. However, coastal upwelling simulated in ensembles of climate simulations do not show any imprint of external forcing neither for the past millennium nor for the future, with the exception of the strongest future scenario.
X. Yi, B. Hünicke, N. Tim, and E. Zorita
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-12-2683-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-12-2683-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use the vertical water mass transport data provided by a high-resolution global ocean simulation to study the western Arabian Sea coastal upwelling system. Our results show that: 1). no significant long-term trend is detected in the upwelling time series. 2). the impact of Indian summer monsoon on the simulated upwelling is weak. 3). the upwelling is strongly affected by the sea level pressure gradient and the air temperature gradient.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, C. C. Raible, and S. Dierer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3349–3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, 2015
J. A. García-Valero, J. P. Montávez, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and P. Jiménez-Guerrero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2143–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2143-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2143-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a study of extremely hot days (EHDs) in Spain and their connection with atmospheric dynamics. In addition, this work proposes a method that allows the detection of trends in the frequency of extreme events and their attribution to changes in atmospheric dynamics characterized through circulation types (CTs). The main CT-driven EHDs are identified. The increase in the EHD appearance is linked to the increase of the extreme CTs; however this only partially explains the trends.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
N. Tim, E. Zorita, and B. Hünicke
Ocean Sci., 11, 483–502, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-483-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-483-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric drivers of the Benguela upwelling systems and its variability are statistically analysed with an ocean-only simulation over the last decades. Atmospheric upwelling-favourable conditions are southerly wind/wind stress, a strong subtropical anticyclone, and an ocean-land sea level pressure gradient as well as a negative ENSO and a positive AAO phase. No long-term trends of upwelling and of ocean-minus-land air pressure gradients, as supposed by Bakun, can be seen in our analysis.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, N. Fischer, K. Haberkorn, S. Wagner, M. Pfeiffer, L. Jin, V. Khon, Y. Wang, and U. Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 11, 305–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, 2015
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, E. Zorita, A. Fontán, V. Valencia, and P. Lazure
Ocean Sci., 9, 655–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations of the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation
High-resolution LGM climate of Europe and the Alpine region using the regional climate model WRF
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum
Does a difference in ice sheets between Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 5a affect the duration of stadials? Implications from hosing experiments
Impact of mid-glacial ice sheets on deep ocean circulation and global climate
A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP
Equilibrium simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 climate
Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations
Hosed vs. unhosed: interruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a global coupled model, with and without freshwater forcing
The climate reconstruction in Shandong Peninsula, northern China, during the last millennium based on stalagmite laminae together with a comparison to δ18O
Last interglacial model–data mismatch of thermal maximum temperatures partially explained
Hindcasting the continuum of Dansgaard–Oeschger variability: mechanisms, patterns and timing
Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study
A mechanism for dust-induced destabilization of glacial climates
The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model
Role of CO2 and Southern Ocean winds in glacial abrupt climate change
Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes
Weakened atmospheric energy transport feedback in cold glacial climates
Water vapour source impacts on oxygen isotope variability in tropical precipitation during Heinrich events
Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard-Oeschger-like events, we show that the conditions under which millenial-scale climate variability occurs is related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North-Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millenial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 19, 323–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum and the sensitivity of climate models to a doubling of CO2 can be used to estimate the true sensitivity of the Earth. However, this relationship has varied in successive model generations. In this study, we assess multiple processes at the Last Glacial Maximum which weaken this relationship. For example, how models respond to the presence of ice sheets is a large contributor of uncertainty.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Akira Oka
Clim. Past, 17, 95–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-95-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-95-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We perform simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 and 5a with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to explore the effect of the southward expansion of mid-glacial ice sheets on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and climate. We find that the southward expansion of the mid-glacial ice sheet causes a surface cooling over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, but it exerts a small impact on the AMOC due to the competing effects of surface wind and surface cooling.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 15, 1133–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1133-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present an equilibrium simulation of the climate of Marine Isotope Stage 3, with an IPCC-class model with a relatively high model resolution and a long integration. The simulated climate resembles a warm interstadial state, as indicated by reconstructions of Greenland temperature, sea ice extent, and AMOC. Sensitivity experiments to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels and ice sheet size show that the model is in a relatively stable climate state without multiple equilibria.
Florian Andreas Ziemen, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Marlene Klockmann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. They are caused by massive ice discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet into the North Atlantic. In previous studies, the climate changes were either seen as resulting from freshwater released from the melt of the discharged icebergs or by ice sheet elevation changes. With a coupled ice sheet–climate model, we show that both effects are relevant with the freshwater effects preceding the ice sheet elevation effects.
Nicolas Brown and Eric D. Galbraith
Clim. Past, 12, 1663–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1663-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1663-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An Earth system model is used to explore variability in the global impacts of AMOC disruptions. The model exhibits spontaneous AMOC oscillations under particular boundary conditions, which we compare with freshwater-forced disruptions. We find that the global impacts are similar whether the AMOC disruptions are spontaneous or forced. Freshwater forcing generally amplifies the global impacts, with tropical precipitation and the stability of polar haloclines showing particular sensitivity.
Qing Wang, Houyun Zhou, Ke Cheng, Hong Chi, Chuan-Chou Shen, Changshan Wang, and Qianqian Ma
Clim. Past, 12, 871–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-871-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-871-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The upper part of stalagmite ky1 (from top to 42.769 mm depth), consisting of 678 laminae, was collected from a cave in northern China, located in the East Asia monsoon area. The time of deposition ranges from AD 1217±20 to 1894±20. The analysis shows that both the variations in the thickness of the laminae themselves and the fluctuating degree of variation in the thickness of the laminae of stalagmite ky1 have obviously staged characteristics and synchronized with climate.
P. Bakker and H. Renssen
Clim. Past, 10, 1633–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1633-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1633-2014, 2014
L. Menviel, A. Timmermann, T. Friedrich, and M. H. England
Clim. Past, 10, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, 2014
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
B. F. Farrell and D. S. Abbot
Clim. Past, 8, 2061–2067, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2061-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2061-2012, 2012
S. Schimanke, H. E. M. Meier, E. Kjellström, G. Strandberg, and R. Hordoir
Clim. Past, 8, 1419–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1419-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1419-2012, 2012
R. Banderas, J. Álvarez-Solas, and M. Montoya
Clim. Past, 8, 1011–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1011-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1011-2012, 2012
J. Álvarez-Solas, M. Montoya, C. Ritz, G. Ramstein, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, K. Nisancioglu, T. Dokken, and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 7, 1297–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1297-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1297-2011, 2011
I. Cvijanovic, P. L. Langen, and E. Kaas
Clim. Past, 7, 1061–1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1061-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1061-2011, 2011
S. C. Lewis, A. N. LeGrande, M. Kelley, and G. A. Schmidt
Clim. Past, 6, 325–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-325-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-325-2010, 2010
M. Kageyama, J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, C. Marzin, R. Alkama, and O. Marti
Clim. Past, 5, 551–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-551-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-551-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Bard, E., Raisbeck, G., Yiou, F., and Jouzel, J.:
Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic
nuclides, Tellus B, 52, 985–992, 2000.
Bretagnon, P. and Francou, G.:
Planetary theories in rectangular and spherical variables – vsop87
solutions.
Astron. Astrophys., 202, 309–315, 1988.
Brönnimann, S., Martius, O., von Waldow, H., Welker, C., Luterbacher, J.,
Compo, G., Sardeshmukh, P., and Usbeck, T.:
Extreme winds at northern mid-latitudes since 1871,
Meteor. Z., 21, 13–27, 2012.
Cattiaux, J. and Cassou, C.:
Opposite cmip3/cmip5 trends in the wintertime northern annular mode
explained by combined local sea ice and remote tropical influences,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3682–3687, 2013.
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J.,
Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P.,
Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman,
P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri,
M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, O., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff,
S. D., and Worley, S. J.:
The twentieth century reanalysis project.
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
137, 1–28, 2011.
Costas, I.:
Climate Archive Dune,
PhD thesis, Hamburg University, 7–8, 2013.
Crowley, T. J., Zielinski, G., Vinther, B., Udisti, R., Kreutz, K., Cole-Dai,
J., and Castellano, J.:
Volcanism and the little ice age.
PAGES Newsletter, 16, 22–23, 2008.
Crueger, T., Stevens, B., and Brokopf, R.:
The madden-julian oscillation in echam6 and the introduction of an
objective mjo metric.
J. Climate, 26, 3241–3257, 2013.
Doms, G., J. F., Heise, E., Herzog, H.-J., Mrionow, D., Raschendorfer, M.,
Reinhart, T., Ritter, B., Schrodin, R., Schulz, J.-P., and Vogel, G.:
A description of the nonhydrostatic regional cosmo model. part ii:
Physical parameterization.
Technical report, Deutscher Wetterdienst, 161 pp., available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org (last access: 17 February 2016),
2011.
Donnelly, J. P. and Woodruff, J. D.:
Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by el
niño and the west african monsoon.
Nature, 447, 465–468, 2007.
Esper, J., Düthorn, E., Krusic, P., Timonen, M., and Büntgen, U.:
Northern european summer temperature variations over the common era
from integrated tree-ring density records.
J. Quaternary Sci., 29, 487–494, 2014.
Etheridge, D., Steele, L., Langenfelds, R., Francey, R., Barnola, J., and
Morgan, V.:
Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last
1000 years from air in antarctic ice and firn.
J. Geophys. Res., 101, 4115–4128, 1996.
Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, J. F., Raible, C. C., Ammann, C. M.,
Barriopedro, D., García-Bustamante, E., Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J.,
Luterbacher, J., Phipps, S. J., Servonnat, J., Swingedouw, D., Tett, S. F.
B., Wagner, S., Yiou, P., and Zorita, E.: Large-scale temperature response to
external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium,
Clim. Past, 9, 393–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-393-2013, 2013.
Feser, F., Rockel, B., von Storch, H., Winterfeldt, J., and Zahn, M.:
Regional climate models add value to global model data: A review and
selected examples,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1181–1192, 2011.
Feser, F., Barcikowska, M., Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Weisse, R., and Xia, L.
L:
Storminess over the north atlantic and northwestern europe – a
review.
Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 350–382, 2015.
Fischer-Bruns, I., von Storch, H., Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., and Zorita, E.:
Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to
century time scales,
Clim. Dyn., 25, 461–476, 2005.
Geyer, B.: High-resolution atmospheric reconstruction for Europe 1948–2012: coastDat2,
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 147–164, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-147-2014, 2014.
Gillett, N. P. and Fyfe, J. C.:
Annular mode changes in the cmip5 simulations.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1189–1193, 2013.
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J.,
Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K.,
Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L.,
Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D., Pithan,
F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R.,
Segschneider, J., Six, K. D., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J.,
Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and Stevens, B.:
Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in mpi-esm
simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5.
J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 572–597, 2013.
Gómez-Navarro, J. J. and Zorita, E.:
Atmospheric annular modes in simulation over the past millennium: No
long-term response to external forcing.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3232–3236, 2013.
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Montávez, J. P., Wagner, S., and Zorita, E.: A
regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part
1: Model validation, Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013,
2013.
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Bothe, O., Wagner, S., Zorita, E., Werner, J. P.,
Luterbacher, J., Raible, C. C., and Montávez, J. P: A regional climate
palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings
and strengths of models and reconstructions, Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015a.
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Raible, C. C., and Dierer, S.: Sensitivity of the
WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind
storms over complex terrain, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3349–3363,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, 2015b.
Hall, A.:
Projecting regional change,
Science, 346, 1461, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0629, 2014.
Hall, A. and Qu, X.:
Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in
future climate change,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025127, 2006.
Hong, S.-Y. and Pan, H.-L.:
Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast
model,
Mon. Weather Rev., 124, 2322–2339, 1996.
Hunt, B.:
The medieval warm period, the little ice age and simulated climatic
variability,
Clim. Dyn., 27, 677–694, 2006.
Hünicke, B., Zorita, E., and Haeseler, S.:
Holocene climate simulations for the baltic sea region – application
for sea level and verification of proxy data.
Berichte der RGK, 92, 211–249, 2011.
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Timmreck, C., Reick, C. H., Brovkin, V.,
Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M. A., Crowley, T. J., Pongratz, J.,
Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E., Solanki, S. K., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch,
M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T. J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann,
H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: Climate and carbon-cycle
variability over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 723–737,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-723-2010, 2010.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L.,
Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A.,
Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.,
Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.:
The ncep/ncar 40-year reanalysis project.
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996.
Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Woolen, J.,
Chelliah, M., Ebiszusaki, W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., van den Dool, H.,
Jenne, R., , and Fiorino, M.:
The ncep/ncar 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means cd-rom and
documentation,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247–267, 2001.
Krivova, N. and Solanki, S.:
Models of solar irradiance variations: Current status.
J. Astrophys. Astron., 29, 151–158, 2008.
Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Feser, F., and Weisse, R.:
Inconsistencies between long-term trends in storminess derived from
the 20cr reanalysis and observations.
J. Clim., 26, 868–874, 2013.
Legutke, S. and Voss, R.:
The hamburg atmosphere – ocean coupled circulation model echo-g.
Technical Report 18, DKRZ, Hamburg, 70 pp., available at: www.dkrz.de (last access: 17 February 2016), 1999.
Li, M. and Woollings, T.:
Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent
atlantic analogue.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8594–8601, 2014.
Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Dietrich, D., Rickli, R., Jacobeit, J., Beck,
C.,
Gyalistras, D., Schmutz, C., and Wanner, H.:
Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the eastern north
atlantic and europe back to 1500,
Clim. Dyn., 18, 545–561, 2002.
Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M., and Wanner, H.:
European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and
extremes since 1500,
Science, 303, 1499–1503, 2004.
Marland, G., Boden, T., and Andres, R.:
Global, regional, and national emissions, trends: a compendium of
data on global change.
Technical report, Carbon Dioxide Information Center, Oak Ridge
National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN,
2003.
Marsland, S. J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Latif, M., and Roeske, F.:
The max planck institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal
curvilinear coordinates,
Ocean Modell., 5, 91–127, 2003.
PAGES 2k Consortium:
Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two
millennia.
Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, 2013.
Pessacg, N. L. and Solman, S.:
Effects of land-use changes on climate in southern south america,
Clim. Res., 55, 33–51, 2013.
Pithan, F. and Mauritsen, T.:
Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in
contemporary climate models,
Nat. Geosci., 7, 181–184, 2014.
Pongratz, J., Reick, C., Raddatz, T., and Claussen, M.:
A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the
last millennium,
Global Biogeochem. Cycles,, 22, GB3018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003153, 2008.
Rockel, B. W. and Hense, A.:
The regional climate model cosmo-clm (cclm),
Meteorol. Z., 12, 347–348, 2008.
Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M.,
Dümenil,
L., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.:
The atmospheric general circulation model echam4: model description
and simulation of present-day climate.
Technical Report 218, MPI-M, Hamburg, 1996.
Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M.,
Giorgetta,
M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L. ., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A.,
Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.:
The atmospheric general circulation model echam5. part i: Model
description,
Technical Report 349, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 2003.
Rutgersson, A., Jaagus, J., Schenk, F., Stendel, M., Bärring, L., Briede,
A.,
Claremar, B., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Holopainen, J., Moberg, A., Nordli, O.,
Rimkus, E., and Wibig, J.:
Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin,
chapter Recent Change – Atmosphere, 69–97,
Springer International Publishing, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_4, 2015.
Schimanke, S., Meier, H. E. M., Kjellström, E., Strandberg, G., and
Hordoir, R.: The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium
simulated with a regional climate model, Clim. Past, 8, 1419–1433,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1419-2012, 2012.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P.,
Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R.,
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K.,
Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for
use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4,
33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
Schreiber, T. and Schmitz, A.:
Improved surrogate data for nonlinearity tests.
Phys. Rev. Lett., 77, 635–638, 1996.
Seneviratne, S.,
Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C., Kanae, S., Kossin, J.,
Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M.,
Sorteberg, A., Vera, C., and Zhang, X.: Changes in climate extremes
and their impacts on the natural physical environment, in: Managing
the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F.,
Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J.,
Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M.,
a special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Technical report, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 109–230,
2012.
Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., Crueger, T., Rast, S., M.,
S., Schmidt, H., Bader, J., Block, K., Brokopf, R., Fast, I., Kinne, S.,
Kornblueh, L., Lohmann, U., Pincus, R., Reichler, T., and Roeckner, E.:
Atmospheric component of the mpi-m earth system model: Echam6.
J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst, 5, 146–172, 2013.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.:
An overview of cmip5 and the experiment design.
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, 2012.
von Storch, H., Langenberg, H., and Feser, F.:
A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes,
Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 3664–3673, 2000.
von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Jones, J., Dimitriev, Y., González-Rouco, F.,
and
Tett, S.:
Reconstructing past climate from noisy data,
Science, 306, 679–682, 2004.
Wang, X., Wan, H., Zwiers, F., Swail, V., Compo, G., Allan, R., Vose, R.,
Jourdain, S., and Yin, X.:
Trends and low-frequency variability of storminess over western
europe, 1878–2007,
Clim. Dyn., 37, 2355–2371, 2011.
Wang, X. L., Feng, Y.,
Compo, G. P., Zwiers, F. W., Allan, R. J., Swail, V. R., and
Sardeshmukh, R. D.: Is the storminess in the twentieth century
reanalysis really inconsistent with observations? A reply to the
comment by Krueger et al. (2013), Clim. Dynam., 42, 1113–1125,
2013.
Wolff, J., Maier-Reimer, E., and Legutke, S.:
The hamburg primitive equation model hope.
Technical Report 18, DKRZ, Hamburg,
113 pp., 1997.
Yin, J. H.:
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of
21st century climate,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684, 2005.
Zorita, E., von Storch, H., Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., Cubasch, U., Luterbacher,
J., Legutke, S., Fischer-Bruns, I., and Schlese, U.:
Climate evolution in the last five centuries simulated by an
atmosphere-ocean model: global temperatures, the north atlantic oscillation
and the late maunder minimum,
Meteorol. Z, 13, 271–289, 2004.