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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 12, issue 1
Clim. Past, 12, 31–50, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-31-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Clim. Past, 12, 31–50, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-31-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 15 Jan 2016

Research article | 15 Jan 2016

Inferring climate variability from nonlinear proxies: application to palaeo-ENSO studies

J. Emile-Geay and M. Tingley

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Anchukaitis, K. J., Evans, M. N., Kaplan, A., Vaganov, E. A., Hughes, M. K., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., and Cane, M. A.: Forward modeling of regional scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025050, 2006.
Baker, A., Bradley, C., Phipps, S. J., Fischer, M., Fairchild, I. J., Fuller, L., Spötl, C., and Azcurra, C.: Millennial-length forward models and pseudoproxies of stalagmite δ18O: an example from NW Scotland, Clim. Past, 8, 1153–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1153-2012, 2012.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and García-Herrera, R.: The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011.
Bickel, P. J. and Doksum, K. A.: An Analysis of Transformations Revisited, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 76, 296–311, https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1981.10477649, 1981.
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Ignoring nonlinearity in palaeoclimate records (e.g. continental run-off proxies) runs the risk of severely overstating changes in climate variability. Even with the correct model and parameters, some information is irretrievably lost by such proxies. However, we find that a simple empirical transform can do much to improve the situation, and makes them amenable to classical analyses. Doing so on two palaeo-ENSO records markedly changes some of the quantitative inferences made from such records.
Ignoring nonlinearity in palaeoclimate records (e.g. continental run-off proxies) runs the risk...
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