Articles | Volume 12, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Aug 2016
Research article |
| 17 Aug 2016
Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations
Emmanuele Russo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology – FU-Berlin, Karl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Ulrich Cubasch
Institute of Meteorology – FU-Berlin, Karl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
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Basil A. S. Davis, Marc Fasel, Jed O. Kaplan, Emmanuele Russo, and Ariane Burke
Clim. Past, 20, 1939–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1939-2024, 2024
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During the last ice age (21 000 yr BP) in Europe, the composition and extent of forest and its associated climate remain unclear, with models indicating more forest north of the Alps and a warmer and somewhat wetter climate than suggested by the data. A new compilation of pollen records with improved dating suggests greater agreement with model climates but still suggests models overestimate forest cover, especially in the west.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
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We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Bijan Fallah, Christoph Menz, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
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We tried to contribute to the local climate change impact study in Central Asia, a water-scarce and vulnerable region to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in Central Asia.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
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Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
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In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
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An atmospheric chemistry model has been implemented in the microscale PALM model system 6.0. This article provides a detailed description of the model, its structure, input requirements, various features and limitations. Several pre-compiled ready-to-use chemical mechanisms are included in the chemistry model code; however, users can also easily implement other mechanisms. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the new chemistry model in the urban environment.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
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The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Björn Maronga, Sabine Banzhaf, Cornelia Burmeister, Thomas Esch, Renate Forkel, Dominik Fröhlich, Vladimir Fuka, Katrin Frieda Gehrke, Jan Geletič, Sebastian Giersch, Tobias Gronemeier, Günter Groß, Wieke Heldens, Antti Hellsten, Fabian Hoffmann, Atsushi Inagaki, Eckhard Kadasch, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Basit Ali Khan, Christoph Knigge, Helge Knoop, Pavel Krč, Mona Kurppa, Halim Maamari, Andreas Matzarakis, Matthias Mauder, Matthias Pallasch, Dirk Pavlik, Jens Pfafferott, Jaroslav Resler, Sascha Rissmann, Emmanuele Russo, Mohamed Salim, Michael Schrempf, Johannes Schwenkel, Gunther Seckmeyer, Sebastian Schubert, Matthias Sühring, Robert von Tils, Lukas Vollmer, Simon Ward, Björn Witha, Hauke Wurps, Julian Zeidler, and Siegfried Raasch
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In this paper, we describe the PALM model system 6.0. PALM is a Fortran-based turbulence-resolving code and has been applied for studying a variety of atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers for about 20 years. The model is optimized for use on massively parallel computer architectures. During the last years, PALM has been significantly improved and now offers a variety of new components that are especially designed to simulate the urban atmosphere at building-resolving resolution.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
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This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
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We try to test and evaluate an approach for using two main sources of information on the climate of the past: climate model simulations and proxies. This is done via data assimilation (DA), a method that blends these two sources of information in an intelligent way. However, DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Here, we tested the ability of a computationally affordable DA to reconstruct high-resolution climate fields.
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During the last ice age (21 000 yr BP) in Europe, the composition and extent of forest and its associated climate remain unclear, with models indicating more forest north of the Alps and a warmer and somewhat wetter climate than suggested by the data. A new compilation of pollen records with improved dating suggests greater agreement with model climates but still suggests models overestimate forest cover, especially in the west.
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Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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We tried to contribute to the local climate change impact study in Central Asia, a water-scarce and vulnerable region to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in Central Asia.
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Clim. Past, 19, 835–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-835-2023, 2023
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Precipitation distribution is uneven in monsoon and westerlies-dominated subregions of Asia. Multi-model data from PMIP3 and CMIP5 show a distinct inverse pattern of climatological conditions after NHVAI, with an intensified aridity in the relatively wettest area but a weakened aridity in the relatively driest area of the AMR. The hydrological impacts relate to the dynamical response of the climate system to the radiative effect of volcanic aerosol and the subsequent local physical feedbacks.
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Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
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In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Ulrich Cubasch
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 70, 225–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-70-225-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-70-225-2021, 2021
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Flohn's publication discusses the state of knowledge of the Pleistocene climate from the perspective of atmospheric sciences, which in 1963 was mainly based on geological and geomorphological evidence. The paper discusses to what extent Flohn's conclusions are still valid and how new findings, methods, and ideas have added to our present-day picture of the Pleistocene climate.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
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The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Basit Khan, Sabine Banzhaf, Edward C. Chan, Renate Forkel, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Mona Kurppa, Björn Maronga, Matthias Mauder, Siegfried Raasch, Emmanuele Russo, Martijn Schaap, and Matthias Sühring
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Short summary
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An atmospheric chemistry model has been implemented in the microscale PALM model system 6.0. This article provides a detailed description of the model, its structure, input requirements, various features and limitations. Several pre-compiled ready-to-use chemical mechanisms are included in the chemistry model code; however, users can also easily implement other mechanisms. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the new chemistry model in the urban environment.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Björn Maronga, Sabine Banzhaf, Cornelia Burmeister, Thomas Esch, Renate Forkel, Dominik Fröhlich, Vladimir Fuka, Katrin Frieda Gehrke, Jan Geletič, Sebastian Giersch, Tobias Gronemeier, Günter Groß, Wieke Heldens, Antti Hellsten, Fabian Hoffmann, Atsushi Inagaki, Eckhard Kadasch, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Basit Ali Khan, Christoph Knigge, Helge Knoop, Pavel Krč, Mona Kurppa, Halim Maamari, Andreas Matzarakis, Matthias Mauder, Matthias Pallasch, Dirk Pavlik, Jens Pfafferott, Jaroslav Resler, Sascha Rissmann, Emmanuele Russo, Mohamed Salim, Michael Schrempf, Johannes Schwenkel, Gunther Seckmeyer, Sebastian Schubert, Matthias Sühring, Robert von Tils, Lukas Vollmer, Simon Ward, Björn Witha, Hauke Wurps, Julian Zeidler, and Siegfried Raasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1335–1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we describe the PALM model system 6.0. PALM is a Fortran-based turbulence-resolving code and has been applied for studying a variety of atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers for about 20 years. The model is optimized for use on massively parallel computer architectures. During the last years, PALM has been significantly improved and now offers a variety of new components that are especially designed to simulate the urban atmosphere at building-resolving resolution.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Bijan Fallah, Emmanuele Russo, Walter Acevedo, Achille Mauri, Nico Becker, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 14, 1345–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We try to test and evaluate an approach for using two main sources of information on the climate of the past: climate model simulations and proxies. This is done via data assimilation (DA), a method that blends these two sources of information in an intelligent way. However, DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Here, we tested the ability of a computationally affordable DA to reconstruct high-resolution climate fields.
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
Stella Babian, Jens Grieger, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6749–6760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most prominent asymmetric features of the southern hemispheric (SH) circulation is the split jet over Australia and New Zealand in austral winter. We propose a new, hemispherical index that is based on the principal components (PCs) of the zonal wind field for the SH winter. The new PC-based index (PSI) suggests that the SH split jet is strongly associated with the AAO. Furthermore, both flavors of ENSO and the PSA-1 pattern produce favorable conditions for a SH split event.
Walter Acevedo, Bijan Fallah, Sebastian Reich, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 13, 545–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-545-2017, 2017
Short summary
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The purpose of this study is to contribute to the present knowledge of paleo data assimilation techniques by addressing the following two questions: (i) Does the off-line regime naturally appear for the assimilation of tree-ring-width records into an AGCM? (ii) Is the fuzzy logic (FL)-based extension of a forward model still useful to improve the performance of a time-averaged ensemble Kalman filter technique when a climate model is used?
B. Fallah and U. Cubasch
Clim. Past, 11, 253–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that state-of-the-art climate model simulations are able to capture historically recorded Asian monsoon failures during the past millennium at the right time and with a comparable spatial distribution. During the Little Ice Age, both model and proxy reconstructions point to fewer monsoon failures. The results suggest an influential impact of volcanic eruptions on the atmosphere-ocean interactions throughout the past millennium.
S. Polanski, B. Fallah, S. Prasad, and U. Cubasch
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-703-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-703-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
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Andrew L. Lowry and Hamish A. McGowan
Clim. Past, 20, 2309–2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2309-2024, 2024
Short summary
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We present simulations of the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial climate of Australia using coarse- (2°) and finer-resolution (0.44°) climate models. These simulations are compared to bioclimatic representations of the palaeoclimate of the mid-Holocene. The finer-resolution simulations reduce the bias between the model and the bioclimatic results and highlight the improved value of using finer-resolution models to simulate the palaeoclimate.
Katharina D. Six, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Gerhard Schmiedl
Clim. Past, 20, 1785–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, 2024
Short summary
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We use a physical and biogeochemical ocean model of the Mediterranean Sea to obtain a picture of the Last Glacial Maximum. The shallowing of the Strait of Gibraltar leads to a shallower pycnocline and more efficient nutrient export. Consistent with the sediment data, an increase in organic matter deposition is simulated, although this is based on lower biological production. This unexpected but plausible result resolves the apparent contradiction between planktonic and benthic proxy data.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 20, 1595–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, 2024
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We close the terrestrial water cycle across the Sahara and Sahel by integrating a new endorheic-lake model into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that both dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually contribute to a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is collectively greater than that caused by the interaction between lake and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel.
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
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A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Yibo Kang and Haijun Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, 2023
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We simulated the climate difference between the mid-Holocene (MH) and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate difference. We think the insignificant difference in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between the MH and PI periods has resulted from the competing effects of the ORBs and the GHGs on the climate.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
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Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
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The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
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Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Michael P. Nobis, Signe Normand, Catherine H. Graham, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 19, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, 2023
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Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
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This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
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This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 18, 2401–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, 2022
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Understanding the hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the mid-Holocene (MH; a period with warmer summers than today) will help us understand expected future changes. This study analyses the hydroclimates over the headwater regions of three major rivers originating on the TP using dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Model–data comparisons show that the dynamic downscaling significantly improves both the present-day and MH regional climate simulations of the TP.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
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In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
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The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
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Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
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In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
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Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
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We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
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The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
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Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
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This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
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Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
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We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
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A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
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The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
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We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
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We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
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We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
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The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, 2013
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Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable...
