Articles | Volume 12, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jul 2016
Research article |
| 13 Jul 2016
Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium
François Klein
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Belgium
Hugues Goosse
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Belgium
Nicholas E. Graham
Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA, USA
Dirk Verschuren
Limnology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University, Belgium
Related authors
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Allix Jean Baxter, Francien Peterse, Dirk Verschuren, Aihemaiti Maitituerdi, Nicolas Waldmann, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2486, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of long-term lake system evolution on the climate signal recorded by GDGTs, a popular biomarker in paleoclimate research. It compares downcore changes in GDGTs in the 250,000-year Lake Chala (Kenya/Tanzania) sediment sequence to independent data for lake mixing and water column chemistry. These factors critically influence the GDGT proxies during the earliest depositional phases (before ~180,000 ka), confounding the climate signal.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-45, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinary low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, the latest of which was the all-time record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Loes G. J. van Bree, Francien Peterse, Allix J. Baxter, Wannes De Crop, Sigrid van Grinsven, Laura Villanueva, Dirk Verschuren, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Biogeosciences, 17, 5443–5463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5443-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5443-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are used as a paleothermometer based on their temperature dependence in global soils, but aquatic production complicates their use in lakes. BrGDGTs in the water column of Lake Chala, East Africa, respond to oxygen conditions and mixing. Changes in their signal can be linked to bacterial community composition rather than membrane adaptation to changing conditions. Their integrated signal in the sediment reflects mean air temperature.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
Lien De Wispelaere, Samuel Bodé, Pedro Hervé-Fernández, Andreas Hemp, Dirk Verschuren, and Pascal Boeckx
Biogeosciences, 14, 73–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-73-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-73-2017, 2017
Laura K. Buckles, Dirk Verschuren, Johan W. H. Weijers, Christine Cocquyt, Maarten Blaauw, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Clim. Past, 12, 1243–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper discusses the underlying mechanisms of a method that uses specific membrane lipids present in the sediments of an African tropical lake to determine past changes in rainfall. With this method, past dry periods in the last 25 000 years can be assessed.
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
I. Ssemmanda, V. Gelorini, and D. Verschuren
Clim. Past, 10, 2067–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2067-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2067-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Using fossil pollen assemblages to trace vegetation response to relatively modest historical climate fluctuations is difficult. In this study, pollen data from a lake-sediment record in Queen Elizabeth National Park (Uganda) show that its landscape has been an open wooded savannah throughout the past 200 years, with known historical moisture-balance variation exerting modest effects on local tree cover (mostly Acacia and Ficus) and the occurrence of damp soil areas (promoting Phoenix palms).
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Using a process-based dendroclimatic proxy system model in a data assimilation framework: a test case in the Southern Hemisphere over the past centuries
Investigating stable oxygen and carbon isotopic variability in speleothem records over the last millennium using multiple isotope-enabled climate models
Comparison of the oxygen isotope signatures in speleothem records and iHadCM3 model simulations for the last millennium
Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations
Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE
Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium
Temperature variability in the Iberian Range since 1602 inferred from tree-ring records
North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories
Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 3: Practical considerations, relaxed assumptions, and using tree-ring data to address the amplitude of solar forcing
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Ernesto Tejedor, Miguel Ángel Saz, José María Cuadrat, Jan Esper, and Martín de Luis
Clim. Past, 13, 93–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-93-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-93-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Through this study, and inferred from 316 series of tree-ring width, we developed a maximum temperature reconstruction that is significant for much of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). This reconstruction will not only help to understand the past climate of the IP but also serve to improve future climate change scenarios particularly affecting the Mediterranean area.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
A. Moberg, R. Sundberg, H. Grudd, and A. Hind
Clim. Past, 11, 425–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-425-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-425-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Experiments with climate models can help to understand causes of past climate changes. We develop a statistical framework for comparing data from simulation experiments with temperature reconstructions for the last millennium. A combination of several external factors is found to explain a significant part of the observed variations, but our selection of data cannot tell which of two alternative choices of past solar forcing gives the best fit between simulations and reconstructions.
Cited articles
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, Tech. rep., NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2009.
Anchukaitis, K. J. and Tierney, J. E.: Identifying coherent spatiotemporal modes in time-uncertain proxy paleoclimate records, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1291–1306, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1483-0, 2012.
Anyah, R. O. and Qiu, W.: Characteristic 20th and 21st century precipitation and temperature patterns and changes over the Greater Horn of Africa, International J. Climatol., 32, 347–363, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2270, 2012.
Becht, R. and Harper, D. M.: Towards an understanding of human impact upon the hydrology of Lake Naivasha , Kenya, Hydrobiologia, 488, 1–11, 2002.
Berger, A.: Long-term variations of daily insolation and Quaternary climatic changes, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 35, 2363–2367, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:LTVODI>2.0.CO;2, 1978.
Brown, E. T. and Johnson, T. C.: Coherence between tropical East African and South American records of the Little Ice Age, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 6, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GC000959, 2005.
Buckles, L. K., Verschuren, D., Weijers, J. W. H., Cocquyt, C., Blaauw, M., and Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.: Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy, Clim. Past, 12, 1243–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, 2016.
Chen, M., Xie, P., Janowiak, J. E., and Arkin, P. A.: Global Land Precipitation: A 50-yr Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, J. Hydrometeorol., 3, 249–266, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003>0249:GLPAYM>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Clark, C., Webster, P., and Cole, J.: Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the Indian Ocean zonal mode and East African coastal rainfall anomalies, J. Climate, 16, 548–554, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0548:IVOTRB>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?*, J. Climate, 28, 124–142, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1, 2015.
Conway, D., Hanson, C. E., Doherty, R., and Persechino, A.: GCM simulations of the Indian Ocean dipole influence on East African rainfall: Present and future, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027597, 2007.
Cook, K. H. and Vizy, E. K.: Projected changes in east african rainy seasons, J. Climate, 26, 5931–5948, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00455.1, 2013.
Crowley, T. J. and Unterman, M. B.: Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 187–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013, 2013.
Dinku, T., Ceccato, P., Grover-Kopec, E., Lemma, M., Connor, S. J., and Ropelewski, C. F.: Validation of satellite rainfall products over East Africa's complex topography, Int. J. Remote Sens., 28, 1503–1526, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160600954688, 2007.
Dufresne, J. L., Foujols, M. A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J. P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J. Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M. P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013.
Fallah, B. and Cubasch, U.: A comparison of model simulations of Asian mega-droughts during the past millennium with proxy reconstructions, Clim. Past, 11, 253–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, 2015.
Flückiger, J., Monnin, E., Stauffer, B., Schwander, J., Stocker, T. F., Chappellaz, J., Raynaud, D., and Barnola, J.-M.: High-resolution Holocene N2O ice core record and its relationship with CH4 and CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 1010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001417, 2002.
Funk, C., Dettinger, M. D., Michaelsen, J. C., Verdin, J. P., Brown, M. E., Barlow, M., and Hoell, A.: Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 11081–11086, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0708196105, 2008.
Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008.
Garcin, Y., Williamson, D., Taieb, M., Vincens, A., Mathé, P. E., and Majule, A.: Centennial to millennial changes in maar-lake deposition during the last 45,000 years in tropical Southern Africa (Lake Masoko, Tanzania), Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 239, 334–354, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.02.002, 2006.
Garcin, Y., Williamson, D., Bergonzini, L., Radakovitch, O., Vincens, A., Buchet, G., Guiot, J., Brewer, S., Mathé, P. E., and Majule, A.: Solar and anthropogenic imprints on Lake Masoko (southern Tanzania) during the last 500 years, J. Paleolimnol., 37, 475–490, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-006-9033-6, 2007.
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C., Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., Vertenstein, M., Worley, P. H., Yang, Z.-L., and Zhang, M.: The Community Climate System Model Version 4, J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1, 2011.
Goddard, L. and Graham, N. E.: Importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19099, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900326, 1999.
Hansen, J. and Sato, M.: Greenhouse gas growth rates, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101, 16109–16114, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0406982101, 2004.
Hastenrath, S., Nicklis, A., and Greischar, L.: Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 20219–20235, 1993.
Hillbruner, C. and Moloney, G.: When early warning is not enough-Lessons learned from the 2011 Somalia Famine, Global Food Security, 1, 20–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2012.08.001, 2012.
Hoell, A., Funk, C., and Barlow, M.: The regional forcing of Northern hemisphere drought during recent warm tropical west Pacific Ocean La Niña events, Clim. Dynam., 42, 3289–3311, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1799-4, 2014.
Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Bolvin, D. T., and Gu, G.: Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040000, 2009.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R. A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J. P., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R. A., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Klein Goldewijk, K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., and Wang, Y. P.: Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands, Climatic Change, 109, 117–161, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2, 2011.
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC): Disaster relief emergency fund (DREF) – Kenya : Floods 2012, Tech. rep., International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2013a.
IFRC: Emergency appeal – Kenya : Floods 2013, Tech. Rep. April 2013, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2013b.
International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI): Emerging La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific: Notes for the Health Community, Tech. rep., The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 2010.
Izumo, T., Lengaigne, M., Vialard, J., Luo, J.-J., Yamagata, T., and Madec, G.: Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on following year's El Nino: interdecadal robustness, Clim. Dynam., 42, 291–310, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1628-1, 2014.
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC): Seasonal Prediction: ENSO forecast, Indian Ocean forecast, Regional forecast, http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1% _announcements_s.html.en, last access: 30 October 2015.
Johnson, T. C. and McCave, I. N.: Transport mechanism and paleoclimatic significance of terrigenous silt deposited in varved sediments of an African rift lake, Limnol. Oceanogr., 53, 1622–1632, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2008.53.4.1622, 2008.
Kelley, C., Ting, M., Seager, R., and Kushnir, Y.: The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th Century winter drying of the Mediterranean region, Clim. Dynam., 38, 2001–2015, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1221-z, 2012.
Kennedy, J. J., A, R. N., Smith, R. O., Parker, D. E., and Saunby, M.: Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 1. Measurement and sampling uncertainties, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015218, 2011a.
Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Smith, R. O., Parker, D. E., and Saunby, M.: Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015220, 2011b.
Kirtman, B., Power, S., Adedoyin, J., Boer, G., Bojariu, R., Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F., Fiore, A., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schär, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G., Vecchi, G., and Wang, H.: Near-term climate change: projections and predictability, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgl, P., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Klein, S., Soden, B., and Lau, N.: Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge, J. Climate, 12, 917–932, 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0917:RSSTVD>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Klein Goldewijk, K. and van Drecht, G.: HYDE3: Current and historical population and land cover, in: Integrated Modelling of Global Environmental Change, An Overview of IMAGE 2.4, edited by: Bouwman, A. F., Kram, T., and Goldewijk, K. K., chap. 6, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, 93–112, 2006.
Laîné, A., Nakamura, H., Nishii, K., and Miyasaka, T.: A diagnostic study of future evaporation changes projected in CMIP5 climate models, Clim. Dynam., 42, 2745–2761, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2087-7, 2014.
Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010.
L'Heureux, M. L., Lee, S., and Lyon, B.: Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific, Nature Climate Change, 3, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1840, 2013.
Lyon, B.: Seasonal Drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and Its Recent Increase during the March-May Long Rains, J. Climate, 27, 7953–7975, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00459.1, 2014.
Lyon, B. and DeWitt, D. G.: A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050337, 2012.
MacFarling Meure, C., Etheridge, D., Trudinger, C., Steele, P., Langenfelds, R., Van Ommen, T., Smith, A., and Elkins, J.: Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 2000–2003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026152, 2006.
McHugh, M. J.: Multi-model trends in East African rainfall associated with increased CO2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021632, 2005.
Merrifield, M. A.: A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s, J. Climate, 24, 4126–4138, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3932.1, 2011.
Mutai, C. and Ward, M.: East African rainfall and the tropical circulation/convection on intraseasonal to interannual timescales, J. Climate, 13, 3915–3939, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3915:EARATT>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Nicholson, S.: A review of climate dynamics and climate variability in Eastern Africa, in: The Limnology, Climatology and Paleoclimatology of the East African Lakes, edited by: Johnson, T. C. and Odada, E. O., Gordon and Breach, 25–56, 1996.
Nicholson, S. and Selato, J.: The influence of La Nina on African rainfall, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1761–1776, https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-0088(20001130)20:14>1761::AID-JOC580>3.0.CO;2-W 2000.
Nicholson, S. E.: Spatial teleconnections in African rainfall: A comparison of 19th and 20th century patterns, Holocene, 24, 1840–1840, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683614551230, 2014.
Nicholson, S. E., Dezfuli, A. K., and Klotter, D.: A Two-Century Precipitation Dataset for the Continent of Africa, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1219–1231, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00212.1, 2012.
OCHA: Eastern Africa Humanitarian Bulletin, Tech. Rep. 6, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2012.
Ogallo, L. J., Janowiak, J. E., and Halpert, M. S.: Teleconnection between Seasonal Rainfall over East Africa and Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 66, 807–822, 1988.
Otieno, V. O. and Anyah, R. O.: CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: contemporary climate, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2081–2097, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1549-z, 2012.
Otieno, V. O. and Anyah, R. O.: CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part II: projected climate, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2099–2113, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1694-z, 2013.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Joussaume, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Modeling and Data Syntheses of Past Climates: Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase II Workshop, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 90, p. 93, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009EO110013, 2009.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L., Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate Variability and Change since 850 C.E.: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735–754, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1, 2016.
Pohl, B. and Camberlin, P.: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. March–May season extremes and interannual variability, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.223, 2006.
Pongratz, J., Reick, C., Raddatz, T., and Claussen, M.: A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003153, 2008.
Pongratz, J., Reick, C. H., Raddatz, T., and Claussen, M.: Effects of anthropogenic land cover change on the carbon cycle of the last millennium, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003488, 2009.
Rowell, D. P.: Simulating SST Teleconnections to Africa: What is the State of the Art?, J. Climate, 26, 5397–5418, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1, 2013.
Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., and Yamagata, T.: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360–363, https://doi.org/10.1038/43854, 1999.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012.
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y.-H., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Genio, A. D., Fainchtein, R. D., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., Legrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Matthews, E. E., Menon, S., Miller, R. L., Oinas, V., Oloso, A. O., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Putman, W. M., Rund, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Syed, R. A., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M.-S., and Zhang, J.: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 6, 141–184, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014.
Schneider, U., Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Ziese, M., and Rudolf, B.: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 115, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x, 2014.
Schreck, C. J. and Semazzi, F. H. M.: Variability of the recent climate of eastern Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1019, 2004.
Seager, R., Naik, N., and Vecchi, G. A.: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming, J. Climate, 23, 4651–4668, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1, 2010.
Shongwe, M. E., van Oldenborgh, G. J., van den Hurk, B., and van Aalst, M.: Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II: East Africa, J. Climate, 24, 3718–3733, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1, 2011.
Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., and Lawrimore, J.: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006), J. Climate, 21, 2283–2296, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1, 2008.
Steinhilber, F., Beer, J., and Fröhlich, C.: Total solar irradiance during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040142, 2009.
Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., Crueger, T., Rast, S., Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Bader, J., Block, K., Brokopf, R., Fast, I., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Lohmann, U., Pincus, R., Reichler, T., and Roeckner, E.: The atmospheric component of the MPI-M earth system model: ECHAM6, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20015, 2013.
Sylla, M. B., Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., and Mariotti, L.: Uncertainties in daily rainfall over Africa: Assessment of gridded observation products and evaluation of a regional climate model simulation, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1805–1817, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3551, 2013.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Thiery, W., Davin, E., Panitz, H.-j., Demuzere, M., Lhermitte, S., and Van Lipzig, N.: The impact of the African Great Lakes on the regional climate, J. Clim., 28, 4061–4085, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00565.1, 2015.
Tierney, J. E., Russell, J. M., Sinninghe Damsté, J. S., Huang, Y., and Verschuren, D.: Late Quaternary behavior of the East African monsoon and the importance of the Congo Air Boundary, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 798–807, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.01.017, 2011.
Tierney, J. E., Smerdon, J. E., Anchukaitis, K. J., and Seager, R.: Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean, Nature, 493, 389–92, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11785, 2013.
Ummenhofer, C. C., Sen Gupta, A., England, M. H., and Reason, C. J. C.: Contributions of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures to Enhanced East African Rainfall, J. Climate, 22, 993–1013, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2493.1, 2009.
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA): Eastern Africa Drought Humanitarian Report No. 3, Tech. Rep. 3, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2011.
Vecchi, G. A. and Soden, B. J.: Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation, J. Climate, 20, 4316–4340, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4258.1, 2007.
Vecchi, G. A., Soden, B. J., Wittenberg, A. T., Held, I. M., Leetmaa, A., and Harrison, M. J.: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing, Nature, 441, 73–76, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04744, 2006.
Verschuren, D.: Reconstructing fluctuations of a shallow East African lake during the past 1800 yrs from sediment stratigraphy in a submerged crater basin, J. Paleolimnol., 25, 297–311, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011150300252, 2001.
Verschuren, D.: Lake-based climate reconstruction in Africa: Progress and challenges, Hydrobiologia, 500, 315–330, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024686229778, 2003.
Verschuren, D.: Decadal and century-scale climate variability in tropical Africa during the past 2000 years, in: Past Climate Variability through Europe and Africa, edited by: Battarbee, R. W., Gasse, F., and Stickley, C. E., chap. 8, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, Springer Edn., 139–158, 2004.
Verschuren, D., Laird, K. R., and Cumming, B. F.: Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years, Nature, 403, 410–414, https://doi.org/10.1038/35000179, 2000.
Verschuren, D., Sinninghe Damsté, J. S., Moernaut, J., Kristen, I., Blaauw, M., Fagot, M., and Haug, G. H.: Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator, Nature, 462, 637–641, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08520, 2009.
Vieira, L. E. A. and Solanki, S.: Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia, 100, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/200913276, 2009.
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011.
Vizy, E. K. and Cook, K. H.: Mid-twenty-first-century changes in extreme events over northern and tropical Africa, J. Climate, 25, 5748–5767, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00693.1, 2012.
Wang, Y., Lean, J. L., and Sheeley, Jr., N. R.: Modeling the Sun's Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713, Astrophys. J., 625, 522–538, https://doi.org/10.1086/429689, 2005.
Webster, P., Moore, A., Loschnigg, J., and Leben, R.: Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98, Nature, 401, 356–360, https://doi.org/10.1038/43848, 1999.
Williams, A. P. and Funk, C.: A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation , drying eastern Africa, Clim. Dynam., 37, 2417–2435, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y, 2011.
Wolff, C., Haug, G. H., Timmermann, A., Sinninghe Damsté, J. S., Brauer, A., Sigman, D. M., Cane, M. A., and Verschuren, D.: Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age, Science (New York, N.Y.), 333, 743–747, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203724, 2011.
Wu, T., Song, L., Li, W., Wang, Z., Zhang, H., Xin, X., Zhang, Y., Zhang, L., Li, J., Wu, F., Liu, Y., Zhang, F., Shi, X., Chu, M., Zhang, J., Fang, Y., Wang, F., Lu, Y., Liu, X., Wei, M., Liu, Q., Zhou, W., Dong, M., Zhao, Q., Ji, J., Li, L., and Zhou, M.: An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies, Journal of Meteorological Research, 28, 34–56, 2014.
Xie, P. and Arkin, P. A.: Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Outputs, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2539–2558, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078>2539:GPAYMA<2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Yang, W., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Lyon, B.: The East African Long Rains in Observations and Models, J. Climate, 27, 7185–7202, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00447.1, 2014.
Yang, W., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Lyon, B.: The Annual Cycle of the East African Precipitation, J. Climate, 28, 2385–2404, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00484.1, 2015.
Short summary
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate...
