Articles | Volume 11, issue 10
Research article
21 Oct 2015
Research article |  | 21 Oct 2015

Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates

J. H. Koh and C. M. Brierley

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Cited articles

Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lambeck, K., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Tarasov, L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., and Takahashi, K.: Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 4293–4336,, 2015.
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 367–376,, 2013.
Ballinger, A. P., Merlis, T. M., Held, I. M., and Zhao, M.: The Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Activity to Off-Equatorial Thermal Forcing in Aquaplanet Simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 2286–2302, 2015.
Bister, M. and Emanuel, K. A.: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 65, 233–240, 1998.
Bister, M. and Emanuel, K. A.: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. (1984–2012), 107, ACL 26-1–ACL 26-15, 2002.
Short summary
Here we diagnose simulated changes in large-scale climate variables associated with the formation of tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricanes and typhoons). The cumulative potential for storm formation is pretty constant, despite the climate changes between the Last Glacial Maximum and the warm Pliocene. There are, however, coherent shifts in the relative strength of the storm regions. Little connection appears between the past behaviour in the five models studied and their future projections.