Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
18 Jan 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 18 Jan 2024
| 18 Jan 2024
Toward generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT)
Andrey Ganopolski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Invited contribution by Andrey Ganopolski, recipient of the EGU Milutin Milankovic Medal 2011.
Related authors
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard-Oeschger-like events, we show that the conditions under which millenial-scale climate variability occurs is related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North-Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millenial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not tell enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, the knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
Christine Kaufhold and Andrey Ganopolski
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 89–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-89-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-89-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A repository in Germany must be secure for a period of at least 1 million years. We argue that the deep-future climate should be considered in the site selection process. A suite of possible future climates will be provided, using different emission scenarios. In low-emission scenarios, glacial cycles will quickly resume, changing subterranean stress and permafrost. In high-emission scenarios, the sea level will rise. Both regimes should be of interest to those working on nuclear waste disposal.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Reinhard Calov, Sebastian Beyer, Ralf Greve, Johanna Beckmann, Matteo Willeit, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3097–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections for the Greenland glacial system with the new glacial system model IGLOO 1.0, which incorporates the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS 3.3, a model of basal hydrology and a parameterization of submarine melt of outlet glaciers. Surface temperature and mass balance anomalies from the MAR climate model serve as forcing delivering projections for the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise and submarine melt of Helheim and Store outlet glaciers.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 301–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-301-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-301-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland's glaciers that are in contact with the ocean undergo a special ice–ocean melting. To project numerically Greenland's centennial contribution to sea level rise, it is crucial to incorporate this special melting. We demonstrate that a numerically cheap model shows the qualitative same behavior as numerical expensive 2–3-dimensional models and calculates the same melting as empirical data show. Our analytical solution gives some insight in the yet poorly understood melting behavior.
Andrey Ganopolski and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores reveal that atmospheric CO2 concentration varied synchronously with the global ice volume. Explaining the mechanism of glacial–interglacial variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the link between CO2 and ice sheets evolution still remains a challenge. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity we performed for the first time simulations of co-evolution of climate, ice sheets and carbon cycle using the astronomical forcing as the only external forcing.
Eva Bauer and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 13, 819–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Transient glacial cycle simulations with an EMIC and the PDD method require smaller melt factors for inception than for termination and larger factors for American than European ice sheets. The PDD online method with standard values simulates a sea level drop of 250 m at the LGM. The PDD online run reproducing the LGM ice volume has deficient ablation for reversing from glacial to interglacial climate, so termination is delayed. The SEB method with dust impact on snow albedo is seen as superior.
Mario Krapp, Alexander Robinson, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 11, 1519–1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1519-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1519-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the snowpack model SEMIC. It calculates snow height, surface temperature, surface albedo, and the surface mass balance of snow- and ice-covered surfaces while using meteorological data as input. In this paper we describe how SEMIC works and how well it compares with snowpack data of a more sophisticated regional climate model applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Because of its simplicity and efficiency, SEMIC can be used as a coupling interface between atmospheric and ice sheet models.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3817–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
PALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies.
M. Willeit and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 11, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the permafrost–ice-sheet interaction using the fully coupled climate–ice-sheet model CLIMBER-2 with the addition of a newly developed permafrost module. We find that permafrost has a moderate but significant effect on ice sheet dynamics during the last glacial cycle. In particular at the Last Glacial Maximum the inclusion of permafrost leads to a 15m sea level equivalent increase in Northern Hemisphere ice volume when permafrost is included.
R. Calov, A. Robinson, M. Perrette, and A. Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ice discharge into the ocean from outlet glaciers is an important
component of mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. Here, we present a
simple parameterization of ice discharge for coarse resolution ice
sheet models, suitable for large ensembles or long-term palaeo
simulations. This parameterization reproduces in a good approximation
the present-day ice discharge compared with estimates, and the
simulation of the present-day ice sheet elevation is considerably
improved.
E. Bauer and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 10, 1333–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, 2014
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Biogeosciences, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, 2014
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, 2013
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard-Oeschger-like events, we show that the conditions under which millenial-scale climate variability occurs is related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North-Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millenial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not tell enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, the knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
Christine Kaufhold and Andrey Ganopolski
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 89–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-89-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-89-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A repository in Germany must be secure for a period of at least 1 million years. We argue that the deep-future climate should be considered in the site selection process. A suite of possible future climates will be provided, using different emission scenarios. In low-emission scenarios, glacial cycles will quickly resume, changing subterranean stress and permafrost. In high-emission scenarios, the sea level will rise. Both regimes should be of interest to those working on nuclear waste disposal.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Reinhard Calov, Sebastian Beyer, Ralf Greve, Johanna Beckmann, Matteo Willeit, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3097–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections for the Greenland glacial system with the new glacial system model IGLOO 1.0, which incorporates the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS 3.3, a model of basal hydrology and a parameterization of submarine melt of outlet glaciers. Surface temperature and mass balance anomalies from the MAR climate model serve as forcing delivering projections for the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise and submarine melt of Helheim and Store outlet glaciers.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 301–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-301-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-301-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland's glaciers that are in contact with the ocean undergo a special ice–ocean melting. To project numerically Greenland's centennial contribution to sea level rise, it is crucial to incorporate this special melting. We demonstrate that a numerically cheap model shows the qualitative same behavior as numerical expensive 2–3-dimensional models and calculates the same melting as empirical data show. Our analytical solution gives some insight in the yet poorly understood melting behavior.
Andrey Ganopolski and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores reveal that atmospheric CO2 concentration varied synchronously with the global ice volume. Explaining the mechanism of glacial–interglacial variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the link between CO2 and ice sheets evolution still remains a challenge. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity we performed for the first time simulations of co-evolution of climate, ice sheets and carbon cycle using the astronomical forcing as the only external forcing.
Eva Bauer and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 13, 819–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Transient glacial cycle simulations with an EMIC and the PDD method require smaller melt factors for inception than for termination and larger factors for American than European ice sheets. The PDD online method with standard values simulates a sea level drop of 250 m at the LGM. The PDD online run reproducing the LGM ice volume has deficient ablation for reversing from glacial to interglacial climate, so termination is delayed. The SEB method with dust impact on snow albedo is seen as superior.
Mario Krapp, Alexander Robinson, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 11, 1519–1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1519-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1519-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the snowpack model SEMIC. It calculates snow height, surface temperature, surface albedo, and the surface mass balance of snow- and ice-covered surfaces while using meteorological data as input. In this paper we describe how SEMIC works and how well it compares with snowpack data of a more sophisticated regional climate model applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Because of its simplicity and efficiency, SEMIC can be used as a coupling interface between atmospheric and ice sheet models.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3817–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
PALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies.
M. Willeit and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 11, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the permafrost–ice-sheet interaction using the fully coupled climate–ice-sheet model CLIMBER-2 with the addition of a newly developed permafrost module. We find that permafrost has a moderate but significant effect on ice sheet dynamics during the last glacial cycle. In particular at the Last Glacial Maximum the inclusion of permafrost leads to a 15m sea level equivalent increase in Northern Hemisphere ice volume when permafrost is included.
R. Calov, A. Robinson, M. Perrette, and A. Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ice discharge into the ocean from outlet glaciers is an important
component of mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. Here, we present a
simple parameterization of ice discharge for coarse resolution ice
sheet models, suitable for large ensembles or long-term palaeo
simulations. This parameterization reproduces in a good approximation
the present-day ice discharge compared with estimates, and the
simulation of the present-day ice sheet elevation is considerably
improved.
E. Bauer and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 10, 1333–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, 2014
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Biogeosciences, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, 2014
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Milankovitch
Unraveling the complexities of the Last Glacial Maximum climate: the role of individual boundary conditions and forcings
New estimation of critical insolation – CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception
Large ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation-ice sheet model
Do phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models have physical similarity with Nature? Seemingly, not all of them do
Deglacial climate changes as forced by different ice sheet reconstructions
The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations
An energy budget approach to understand the Arctic warming during the Last Interglacial
Milankovitch, the father of paleoclimate modeling
Greenland climate simulations show high Eemian surface melt which could explain reduced total air content in ice cores
The response of tropical precipitation to Earth's precession: the role of energy fluxes and vertical stability
Interhemispheric effect of global geography on Earth's climate response to orbital forcing
Link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the surface mass balance components of the Greenland Ice Sheet under preindustrial and last interglacial climates: a study with a coupled global circulation model
Eemian Greenland SMB strongly sensitive to model choice
The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle
Comparison of surface mass balance of ice sheets simulated by positive-degree-day method and energy balance approach
Sea ice led to poleward-shifted winds at the Last Glacial Maximum: the influence of state dependency on CMIP5 and PMIP3 models
The effect of a dynamic soil scheme on the climate of the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum
Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate
Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica
Coupled ice sheet–climate modeling under glacial and pre-industrial boundary conditions
Relative impact of insolation and the Indo-Pacific warm pool surface temperature on the East Asia summer monsoon during the MIS-13 interglacial
Factors controlling the last interglacial climate as simulated by LOVECLIM1.3
Deglacial ice sheet meltdown: orbital pacemaking and CO2 effects
Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe
Impact of precession on the climate, vegetation and fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4
Mending Milankovitch's theory: obliquity amplification by surface feedbacks
Megalake Chad impact on climate and vegetation during the late Pliocene and the mid-Holocene
Modeling the climatic implications and indicative senses of the Guliya δ18O-temperature proxy record to the ocean–atmosphere system during the past 130 ka
Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise
Southern westerlies in LGM and future (RCP4.5) climates
Inferred gas hydrate and permafrost stability history models linked to climate change in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Arctic Canada
The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles
Methane variations on orbital timescales: a transient modeling experiment
Deciphering the spatio-temporal complexity of climate change of the last deglaciation: a model analysis
Effects of orbital forcing on atmosphere and ocean heat transports in Holocene and Eemian climate simulations with a comprehensive Earth system model
Investigating the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle
Individual and combined effects of ice sheets and precession on MIS-13 climate
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not tell enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, the knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2082, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate-ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the global temperature and the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to cloud and basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 1793–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Are phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models physically similar to Nature? We demonstrated that though they may be very accurate in reproducing empirical time series, this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with Nature until similarity parameters are considered. We suggest that the diagnostics of physical similarity should become a standard procedure before a phenomenological model can be utilized for interpretations of historical records or future predictions.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Marie Sicard, Masa Kageyama, Sylvie Charbit, Pascale Braconnot, and Jean-Baptiste Madeleine
Clim. Past, 18, 607–629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-607-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) is characterised by an increased summer insolation over the Arctic region, which leads to a strong temperature rise. The aim of this study is to identify and quantify the main processes and feedback causing this Arctic warming. Using the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, we investigate changes in the energy budget relative to the pre-industrial period. We highlight the crucial role of Arctic sea ice cover, ocean and clouds on the Last Interglacial Arctic warming.
Andre Berger
Clim. Past, 17, 1727–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1727-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1727-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper stresses the original contributions of Milankovitch related to his caloric seasons and his climate model giving the caloric seasons a climatological meaning.
Andreas Plach, Bo M. Vinther, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sindhu Vudayagiri, and Thomas Blunier
Clim. Past, 17, 317–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In light of recent large-scale melting of the Greenland ice sheet
(GrIS), e.g., in the summer of 2012 several days with surface melt
on the entire ice sheet (including elevations above 3000 m), we use
computer simulations to estimate the amount of melt during a
warmer-than-present period of the past. Our simulations show more
extensive melt than today. This is important for the interpretation of
ice cores which are used to reconstruct the evolution of the ice sheet
and the climate.
Chetankumar Jalihal, Joyce Helena Catharina Bosmans, Jayaraman Srinivasan, and Arindam Chakraborty
Clim. Past, 15, 449–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Insolation is thought to drive monsoons on orbital timescales. We find that insolation can be a trigger for changes in precipitation, but surface energy and vertical stability play an important role too. These feedbacks are found to be dominant over oceans and can even counter the insolation forcing, thus leading to a land–sea differential response in precipitation.
Rajarshi Roychowdhury and Robert DeConto
Clim. Past, 15, 377–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-377-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-377-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The climate response of the Earth to orbital forcing shows a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, and one of the reasons can be ascribed to the unequal distribution of land in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. We show that a land asymmetry effect (LAE) exists, and that it can be quantified. By using a GCM with a unique geographic setup, we illustrate that there are far-field influences of global geography that moderate or accentuate the Earth's response to orbital forcing.
Silvana Ramos Buarque and David Salas y Melia
Clim. Past, 14, 1707–1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1707-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1707-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The link between the surface mass balance components of the Greenland Ice Sheet and both phases of the NAO is examined under preindustrial and warmer and colder climates of the last interglacial from simulations performed with CNRM-CM5.2. Accumulation in south Greenland is correlated with positive (negative) phases of the NAO in a warm (cold) climate. Melting under a warm (cold) climate is correlated with the negative (positive) phase of the NAO in north and northeast Greenland (at the margins).
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sébastien Le clec'h, Andreas Born, Petra M. Langebroek, Chuncheng Guo, Michael Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 14, 1463–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland ice sheet is a huge frozen water reservoir which is crucial for predictions of sea level in a warming future climate. Therefore, computer models are needed to reliably simulate the melt of ice sheets. In this study, we use climate model simulations of the last period where it was warmer than today in Greenland. We test different melt models under these climatic conditions and show that the melt models show very different results under these warmer conditions.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
Eva Bauer and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 13, 819–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Transient glacial cycle simulations with an EMIC and the PDD method require smaller melt factors for inception than for termination and larger factors for American than European ice sheets. The PDD online method with standard values simulates a sea level drop of 250 m at the LGM. The PDD online run reproducing the LGM ice volume has deficient ablation for reversing from glacial to interglacial climate, so termination is delayed. The SEB method with dust impact on snow albedo is seen as superior.
Louise C. Sime, Dominic Hodgson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Claire Allen, Bianca Perren, Stephen Roberts, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 12, 2241–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could explain large observed changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However there is considerable disagreement in modelled deglacial-warming jet shifts. Here multi-model output is used to show that expansion of sea ice during the glacial period likely caused a slight poleward shift and intensification in the westerly wind jet. Issues with model representation of the winds caused much of the previous disagreement.
M. Stärz, G. Lohmann, and G. Knorr
Clim. Past, 12, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In order to account for coupled climate-soil processes, we developed a soil scheme which is asynchronously coupled to an earth system model. We tested the scheme and found additional warming for a relatively warm climate (mid-Holocene), and extra cooling for a colder (Last Glacial Maximum) than preindustrial climate. These findings indicate a relatively strong positive soil feedback to climate, which may help to reduce model-data discrepancies for the climate of the geological past.
J. H. C. Bosmans, F. J. Hilgen, E. Tuenter, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 11, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1335-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1335-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our study shows that the influence of obliquity (the tilt of Earth's rotational axis) can be explained through changes in the insolation gradient across the tropics. This explanation is fundamentally different from high-latitude mechanisms that were previously often inferred to explain obliquity signals in low-latitude paleoclimate records, for instance glacial fluctuations. Our study is based on state-of-the-art climate model experiments.
N. Sudarchikova, U. Mikolajewicz, C. Timmreck, D. O'Donnell, G. Schurgers, D. Sein, and K. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 765–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, 2015
F. A. Ziemen, C. B. Rodehacke, and U. Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 10, 1817–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, 2014
Q. Z. Yin, U. K. Singh, A. Berger, Z. T. Guo, and M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 10, 1645–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, 2014
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
M. Heinemann, A. Timmermann, O. Elison Timm, F. Saito, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 10, 1567–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, 2014
N. Korhonen, A. Venäläinen, H. Seppä, and H. Järvinen
Clim. Past, 10, 1489–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, 2014
M.-N. Woillez, G. Levavasseur, A.-L. Daniau, M. Kageyama, D. H. Urrego, M.-F. Sánchez-Goñi, and V. Hanquiez
Clim. Past, 10, 1165–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1165-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1165-2014, 2014
C. R. Tabor, C. J. Poulsen, and D. Pollard
Clim. Past, 10, 41–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-41-2014, 2014
C. Contoux, A. Jost, G. Ramstein, P. Sepulchre, G. Krinner, and M. Schuster
Clim. Past, 9, 1417–1430, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1417-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1417-2013, 2013
D. Xiao, P. Zhao, Y. Wang, and X. Zhou
Clim. Past, 9, 735–747, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-735-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-735-2013, 2013
E. J. Stone, D. J. Lunt, J. D. Annan, and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 9, 621–639, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-621-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-621-2013, 2013
Y. Chavaillaz, F. Codron, and M. Kageyama
Clim. Past, 9, 517–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-517-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-517-2013, 2013
J. Majorowicz, J. Safanda, and K. Osadetz
Clim. Past, 8, 667–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-667-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-667-2012, 2012
A. Ganopolski and R. Calov
Clim. Past, 7, 1415–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1415-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1415-2011, 2011
T. Y. M. Konijnendijk, S. L. Weber, E. Tuenter, and M. van Weele
Clim. Past, 7, 635–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-635-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-635-2011, 2011
D. M. Roche, H. Renssen, D. Paillard, and G. Levavasseur
Clim. Past, 7, 591–602, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-591-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-591-2011, 2011
N. Fischer and J. H. Jungclaus
Clim. Past, 6, 155–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-155-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-155-2010, 2010
S. Bonelli, S. Charbit, M. Kageyama, M.-N. Woillez, G. Ramstein, C. Dumas, and A. Quiquet
Clim. Past, 5, 329–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-329-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-329-2009, 2009
Q. Z. Yin, A. Berger, and M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 5, 229–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-229-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-229-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–194, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013.
Adhémar, J. A.: Revolutions de la Mer: Deluges Periodiques, Carilian-Goeury et V. Dalmont, Paris, 1842.
Albani, S., Balkanski, Y., Mahowald, N., Winckler, G., Maggi, V., and Delmonte, B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99–114, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0100-7, 2018.
Andrews, J. T.: The Wisconsin Laurentide ice sheet: dispersal centers, problems of rates of retreat, and climatic implications, Arct. Alp. Res., 5, 185–199, https://doi.org/10.1080/00040851.1973.12003700, 1973.
Archer, D. and Ganopolski, A.: A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 6, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gc000891, 2005.
Archer, D., Winguth, A., Lea, D., and Mahowald, N.: What caused the glacial/interglacial atmospheric pCO2 cycles?, Rev. Geophys., 38, 159–189, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999RG000066, 2000.
Arrhenius, S.: On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground, Philos. Mag., 41, 237–275, 1896.
Ashwin, P., Camp, C. D., and von der Heydt, A. S.: Chaotic and non-chaotic response to quasiperiodic forcing: Limits to predictability of ice ages paced by Milankovitch forcing, Dynam. Stat. Clim. Syst., 3, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1093/climsys/dzy002, 2018.
Barker, S., Starr, A., van der Lubbe, J., Doughty, A., Knorr, G., Conn, S., Lordsmith, S., Owen, L., Nederbragt, A., Hemming, S., and Hall, I.: Persistent influence of precession on northern ice sheet variability since the early Pleistocene, Science, 376, 961–967, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abm4033, 2022.
Bauer, E. and Ganopolski, A.: Sensitivity simulations with direct shortwave radiative forcing by aeolian dust during glacial cycles, Clim. Past, 10, 1333–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, 2014.
Benzi, R., Parisi, G., Sutera, A., and Vulpiani, A.: Stochastic resonance in climatic change, Tellus, 34, 10–16, 1982.
Berends, C. J., Köhler, P., Lourens, L. J., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: On the cause of the mid-Pleistocene transition, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000727, 2021.
Berger, A.: Obliquity and general precession for the last 5 000 000 years, Astron. Astrophys., 51, 127–135, 1976.
Berger, A.: Long-term variations of daily insolation and quaternary climatic changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:Ltvodi>2.0.Co;2, 1978.
Berger, A.: Milankovitch theory and climate, Rev. Geophys., 26, 624–657, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG026i004p00624, 1988.
Berger, A.: A Brief History of the Astronomical Theories of Paleoclimates, in: Climate Change, edited by: Berger, A., Mesinger, F., and Šijački, D., Springer-Verlag, Wien, 107–129, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1, 2012.
Berger, A.: Milankovitch, the father of paleoclimate modeling, Clim. Past, 17, 1727–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1727-2021, 2021.
Berger, A. and Loutre, M. F.: Modeling the 100-kyr glacial-interglacial cycles, Global Planet. Change, 72, 275–281, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.003, 2010.
Berger, A., Li, X. S., and Loutre, M. F.: Modelling northern hemisphere ice volume over the last 3 Ma, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 18, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0277-3791(98)00033-x, 1999.
Bouttes, N., Paillard, D., Roche, D. M., Waelbroeck, C., Kageyama, M., Lourantou, A., Michel, E., and Bopp, L.: Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination, Clim. Past, 8, 149–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-149-2012, 2012.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J. Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, T., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laine, A., Loutre, M. F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past., 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007.
Brendryen, J., Haflidason, H., Yokoyama, Y., Haaga, K. A., and Hannisdal, B.: Eurasian Ice Sheet collapse was a major source of Meltwater Pulse 1A 14,600 years ago, Nat. Geosci., 13, 363–368, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0567-4, 2020.
Briggs, R. D., Pollard, D., and Tarasov, L.: A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 103, 91–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.003, 2014.
Broecker, W. S. and Van Donk, J.: Insolation changes, ice volumes, and the O18 record in deep-sea cores, Rev. Geophys., 8, 169–198, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG008i001p00169, 1970.
Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D., and Rahmstorf, S.: Lowering of glacial atmospheric CO2 in response to changes in oceanic circulation and marine biogeochemistry, Paleoceanography, 22, PA4202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006pa001380, 2007.
Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D., and Munhoven, G.: Glacial CO2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes, Clim. Past., 8, 251–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-251-2012, 2012.
Brückner, E., Köppen, W., and Wegener, A.: Über die Klimate der geologischen Vorzeit, Z. Gletscherkd., 14, 149–169, 1925.
Budyko, M. I.: Future climate, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 53, 868–874, https://doi.org/10.1029/EO053i010p00868, 1972.
Calder, N.: Arithmetic of ice ages, Nature, 252, 216–218, https://doi.org/10.1038/252216a0, 1974.
Calov, R. and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and hysteresis in the climate-cryosphere system under orbital forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21717, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024518, 2005.
Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., Claussen, M., Petoukhov, V., and Greve, R.: Transient simulation of the last glacial inception with an atmosphere-ocean-vegetation-ice sheet. Part I: Glacial inception as a bifurcation of the climate system, Clim. Dynam., 24, 545–561, 2005a.
Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., Petoukhov, V., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., and Kubatzki, C.: Transient simulation of the last glacial inception. Part II: sensitivity and feedback analysis, Clim. Dynam., 24, 563–576, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0008-5, 2005b.
Cane, M. A. and Molnar, P.: Closing of the Indonesian seaway as a precursor to east African aridircation around 3–4 million years ago, Nature, 411, 157–162, https://doi.org/10.1038/35075500, 2001.
Chalk, T. B., Hain, M. P., Foster, G. L., Rohling, E. J., Sexton, P. F., Badger, M. P. S., Cherry, S. G., Hasenfratz, A. P., Haug, G. H., Jaccard, S. L., Martinez-Garcia, A., Palike, H., Pancost, R. D., and Wilson, P. A.: Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 13114–13119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1702143114, 2017.
Charbit, S., Ritz, C., Philippon, G., Peyaud, V., and Kageyama, M.: Numerical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial-interglacial cycle, Clim. Past., 3, 15–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-15-2007, 2007.
Choudhury, D., Timmermann, A., Schloesser, F., Heinemann, M., and Pollard, D.: Simulating Marine Isotope Stage 7 with a coupled climate–ice sheet model, Clim. Past, 16, 2183–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, 2020.
Clark, P. U. and Pollard, D.: Origin of the Middle Pleistocene Transition by ice sheet erosion of regolith, Paleoceanography, 13, 1–9, 1998.
Claussen, M., Mysak, L. A., Weaver, A. J., Crucifix, M., Fichefet, T., Loutre, M. F., Weber, S. L., Alcamo, J., Alexeev, V. A., Berger, A., Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., Goosse, H., Lohmann, G., Lunkeit, F., Mokhov, I., Petoukhov, V., Stone, P., and Wang, Z.: Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models, Clim. Dynam., 18, 579–586, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0200-1, 2002.
Claussen, M., Fohlmeister, J., Ganopolski, A., and Brovkin, V.: Vegetation dynamics amplifies precessional forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026111, 2006.
Croll, J.: On the physical cause of the change of climate during geological epochs, Philos. Mag., 28, 121–137, 1864.
Crucifix, M.: Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 370, 1140–1165, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0315, 2012.
Crucifix, M.: Why could ice ages be unpredictable?, Clim. Past., 9, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, 2013.
Crucifix, M. and Hewitt, C. D.: Impact of vegetation changes on the dynamics of the atmosphere at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Dynam., 25, 447–459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0013-8, 2005.
Dang, C., Brandt, R. E., and Warren, S. G.: Parameterizations for narrowband and broadband albedo of pure snow and snow containing mineral dust and black carbon, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 5446–5468, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022646, 2015.
Daradich, A., Huybers, P., Mitrovica, J. X., Chan, N. H., and Austermann, J.: The influence of true polar wander on glacial inception in North America, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 461, 96–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.12.036, 2017.
de Noblet, N. I., Prentice, I. C., Joussaume, S., Texier, D., Botta, A., and Haxeltine, A.: Possible role of atmosphere–biosphere interaction in triggering the last glaciation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3191–3194, 1996.
Dong, B. W. and Valdes, P. J.: Sensitivity studies of northern-hemisphere glaciation using an atmospheric general-circulation model, J. Climate, 8, 2471–2496, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2471:SSONHG>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Elderfield, H., Ferretti, P., Greaves, M., Crowhurst, S., McCave, I. N., Hodell, D., and Piotrowski, A. M.: Evolution of Ocean Temperature and Ice Volume Through the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition, Science, 337, 704–709, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1221294, 2012.
Emiliani, C.: Paleotemperature analysis of Caribbean cores P6304-8 and P6304-9 and a generalized temperature curve for the past 425,000 years, J. Geol., 74, 109–124, 1966.
Farmer, J. R., Honisch, B., Haynes, L. L., Kroon, D., Jung, S., Ford, H. L., Raymo, M. E., Jaume-Segui, M., Bell, D. B., Goldstein, S. L., Pena, L. D., Yehudai, M., and Kim, J.: Deep Atlantic Ocean carbon storage and the rise of 100,000-year glacial cycles, Nat. Geosci., 12, 355–360, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0334-6, 2019.
Ford, H. L. and Raymo, M. E.: Regional and global signals in seawater δ18O records across the mid-Pleistocene transition, Geology, 48, 113–117, https://doi.org/10.1130/g46546.1, 2020.
Galbraith, E. and de Lavergne, C.: Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages, Clim. Dynam., 52, 653–679, 2019.
Ganopolski, A.: Glacial integrative modelling, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 361, 1871–1883, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2003.1246, 2003.
Ganopolski, A. and Brovkin, V.: Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Past., 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017.
Ganopolski, A. and Calov, R.: The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles, Clim. Past., 7, 1415–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1415-2011, 2011.
Ganopolski, A., Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Eliseev, A., and Kubatzki C.: CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part II: Model sensitivity, Clim. Dynam., 17, 735–751, 2001.
Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., and Claussen, M.: Simulation of the last glacial cycle with a coupled climate ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Past, 6, 229–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-229-2010, 2010.
Ganopolski, A., Winkelmann, R., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Critical insolation-CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception, Nature, 529, 200–204, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16494, 2016.
Gregoire, L. J., Valdes, P. J., and Payne, A. J.: The relative contribution of orbital forcing and greenhouse gases to the North American deglaciation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9970–9979, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066005, 2015.
Gregory, J. M., Browne, O. J. H., Payne, A. J., Ridley, J. K., and Rutt, I. C.: Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions following glacial inception, Clim. Past., 8, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, 2012.
Hargreaves, J. C., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Annan, J. D.: Linking glacial and future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations, Clim. Past, 3, 77–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-77-2007, 2007.
Hasenfratz, A. P., Jaccard, S. L., Martinez-Garcia, A., Sigman, D. M., Hodell, D. A., Vance, D., Bernasconi, S. M., Kleiven, H. F., Haumann, F. A., and Haug, G. H.: The residence time of Southern Ocean surface waters and the 100,000-year ice age cycle, Science, 363, 1080–1084, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat7067, 2019.
Haug, G. H. and Tiedemann, R.: Effect of the formation of the Isthmus of Panama on Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation, Nature, 393, 673–676, https://doi.org/10.1038/31447, 1998.
Haug, G. H., Ganopolski, A., Sigman, D. M., Rosell-Mele, A., Swann, G. E. A., Tiedemann, R., Jaccard, S. L., Bollmann, J., Maslin, M. A., Leng, M. J., and Eglinton, G.: North Pacific seasonality and the glaciation of North America 2.7 million years ago, Nature, 433, 821–825, 2005.
Hays, J., Imbrie, J., and Shackleton, N.: Variations in the earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the ice ages, Science, 194, 1121–1132, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.194.4270.1121, 1976.
Heinemann, M., Timmermann, A., Timm, O. E., Saito, F., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Deglacial ice sheet meltdown: orbital pacemaking and CO2 effects, Clim. Past., 10, 1567–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, 2014.
Hinck, S., Gowan, E. J., Zhang, X., and Lohmann, G.: PISM-LakeCC: Implementing an adaptive proglacial lake boundary in an ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022.
Hodell, D. A., Channell, J. E. T., Curtis, J. H., Romero, O. E., and Rohl, U.: Onset of ”Hudson Strait” Heinrich events in the eastern North Atlantic at the end of the middle Pleistocene transition (similar to 640 ka)?, Paleoceanography, 23, 16 PA4218, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008pa001591, 2008.
Hönisch, B., Hemming, N. G., Archer, D., Siddall, M., and McManus, J. F.: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, Science, 324, 1551–1554, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1171477, 2009.
Huybers, P.: Early Pleistocene glacial cycles and the integrated summer insolation forcing, Science, 313, 508–511, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1125249, 2006.
Huybers, P.: Pleistocene glacial variability as a chaotic response to obliquity forcing, Clim. Past., 5, 481–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-481-2009, 2009.
Huybers, P.: Combined obliquity and precession pacing of late Pleistocene deglaciations, Nature, 480, 229–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10626, 2011.
Huybers, P. and Wunsch, C.: Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations, Nature, 434, 491–494, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03401, 2005.
Imbrie, J. and Imbrie, J.: Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations, Science, 207, 943–953, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.207.4434.943, 1980.
Imbrie, J., Boyle, E. A., Clemens, S. C., Duffy, A., Howard, W. R., Kukla, G., Kutzbach, J., Martinson, D. G., McIntyre, A., Mix, A. C., Molfino, B., Morley, J. J., Peterson, L. C., Pisias, N. G., Prell, W. L., Raymo, M. E., Shackleton, N. J., and Toggweiler, J. R.: On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles 1. linear responses to milankovitch forcing, Paleoceanography, 7, 701–738, https://doi.org/10.1029/92pa02253, 1992.
Imbrie, J., Berger, A., Boyle, E. A., Clemens, S. C., Duffy, A., Howard, W. R., Kukla, G., Kutzbach, J., Martinson, D. G., McIntyre, A., Mix, A. C., Molfino, B., Morley, J. J., Peterson, L. C., Pisias, N. G., Prell, W. L., Raymo, M. E., Shackleton, N. J., and Toggweiler, J. R.: On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles. 2. the 100,000-year cycle, Paleoceanography, 8, 699–735, https://doi.org/10.1029/93pa02751, 1993.
Jeltsch-Thommes, A., Battaglia, G., Cartapanis, O., Jaccard, S. L., and Joos, F.: Low terrestrial carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum: constraints from multi-proxy data, Clim. Past., 15, 849–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-849-2019, 2019.
Kohfeld, K. E. and Harrison S. P.: DIRTMAP: The geological record of dust, Earth Sci. Rev., 54, 81–114, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-8252(01)00042-3, 2001.
Kohfeld, K. E., and Ridgwell, A.: Glacial-interglacial variability in atmospheric CO2, in: Surface ocean-lower atmosphere processes, edited by: Le Quéré, C. and Saltzman, E. S., American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GM000845, 2009.
Konijnendijk, T. Y. M., Ziegler, M., and Lourens, L. J.: On the timing and forcing mechanisms of late Pleistocene glacial terminations: Insights from a new high-resolution benthic stable oxygen isotope record of the eastern Mediterranean, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 129, 308–320, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.005, 2015.
Krinner, G., Boucher, O., and Balkanski, Y.: Ice-free glacial northern Asia due to dust deposition on snow, Clim. Dynam., 27, 613–625, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0159-z, 2006.
Kutzbach, J. E.: Monsoon climate of the early holocene – climate experiment with the earths orbital parameters for 9000 years ago, Science, 214, 59–61, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.214.4516.59, 1981.
Kutzbach, J. E. and Gallimore, R. G.: Sensitivity of a coupled atmosphere/mixed layer ocean model to changes in orbital forcing at 9000 years B.P., J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 93, 803–821, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD093iD01p00803, 1988.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041335, 2004.
Legrain, E., Parrenin, F., and Capron, E.: A gradual change is more likely to have caused the Mid-Pleistocene Transition than an abrupt event, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 90, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00754-0, 2023.
Leloup, G. and Paillard, D.: Influence of the choice of insolation forcing on the results of a conceptual glacial cycle model, Clim. Past, 18, 547–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-547-2022, 2022.
Liakka, J. and Lofverstrom, M.: Arctic warming induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet topography, Clim. Past., 14, 887–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-887-2018, 2018.
Liautaud, P. R., Hodell, D. A., and Huybers, P. J.: Detection of significant climatic precession variability in early Pleistocene glacial cycles, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 536, 116137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116137, 2020.
Licciardi, J. M., Clark, P. U., Jenson, J. W., and Macayeal, D. R.: Deglaciation of a soft-bedded Laurentide Ice Sheet, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 17, 427–448, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0277-3791(97)00044-9, 1998.
Lisiecki, L. E.: Links between eccentricity forcing and the 100,000-year glacial cycle, Nat. Geosci., 3, 349–352, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo828, 2010.
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004pa001071, 2005.
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: Plio-Pleistocene climate evolution: trends and transitions in glacial cycle dynamics, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 56–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.09.005, 2007.
Lofverstrom, M., Thompson, D. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Brady, E. C.: The importance of Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateways for glacial expansion in Scandinavia, Nat. Geosci., 15, 482–488, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00956-9, 2022.
Loutre, M. F. and Berger, A.: Future climatic changes: Are we entering an exceptionally long interglacial?, Climatic Change, 46, 61–90, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005559827189, 2000.
Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J. M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., and Stocker, T. F.: High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present, Nature, 453, 379–382, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06949, 2008.
MacAyeal, D. R.: A catastrophe model of the paleoclimate, J. Glaciol., 24, 245–257, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000014775, 1979.
Mahowald, N. M., Muhs, D. R., Levis, S., Rasch, P. J., Yoshioka, M., Zender, C. S., and Luo, C.: Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D10202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006653, 2006.
Marshall, S. J. and Clarke, G. K. C.: Ice sheet inception: subgrid hypsometric parameterization of mass balance in an ice sheet model, Clim. Dynam., 15, 533–550, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050298, 1999.
Martin, J. H.: Glacial-interglacial CO2 change: the iron hypothesis, Paleoceanography, 5, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/PA005i001p00001, 1990.
Martínez-Botí, M. A., Foster, G. L., Chalk, T. B., Rohling, E. J., Sexton, P. F., Lunt, D. J., Pancost, R. D., Badger, M. P. S., and Schmidt, D. N.: Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records, Nature, 518, 49–54, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14145, 2015.
Maslin, M. A. and Brierley, C. M.: The role of orbital forcing in the Early Middle Pleistocene Transition, Quatern. Int., 389, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.01.047, 2015.
Milankovitch, M.: Theorie Mathematique des Phenomenes Thermiques Produits par la Radiation Solaire. Academie Yougoslave des Sciences et des Arts de Zagreb, Gauthier Villars, Paris, 1920.
Milankovitch, M.: Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und Seine Andwendung auf das Eiszeitenproblem, in: vol. 33, Spec. Publ. 132, R. Serbian Acad., Belgrade, 633 pp., 1941.
Muller, R. A. and MacDonald, G. J.: Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 94, 8329–8334, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.94.16.8329, 1997.
Murphy, J. J.: The glacial climate and the polar ice-cap, Q. J. Geol. Soc., 32, 400–406, 1876.
Oerlemans, J.: Model experiments on the 100,000-yr glacial cycle, Nature, 287, 430–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/287430a0, 1980.
O'ishi, R. and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013.
Paillard, D.: The timing of Pleistocene glaciations from a simple multiple-state climate model, Nature, 391, 378–381, https://doi.org/10.1038/34891, 1998.
Paillard, D.: Glacial cycles: Toward a new paradigm, Rev. Geophys., 39, 325–346, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000RG000091, 2001.
Paillard, D.: Quaternary glaciations: from observations to theories, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 107, 11–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.10.002, 2015.
Paillard, D. and Parrenin, F.: The Antarctic ice sheet and the triggering of deglaciations, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 227, 263–271, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.08.023, 2004.
Penck, A. and Brückner, E.: Die Alpen im Eiszeitalter, CH Tauchnitz, 1909.
Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J. M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V. M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V. Y., Lorius, C., Pepin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M.: Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, Nature, 399, 429–436, https://doi.org/10.1038/20859, 1999.
Petoukhov, V., Ganopolski, A., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Eliseev, A., Kubatzki, C., and Rahmstorf, S.: CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part I: model description and performance for present climate, Clim. Dynam., 16, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/pl00007919, 2000.
Pollard, D.: A coupled climate-ice sheet model applied to the quaternary ice ages, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 88, 7705–7718, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC088iC12p07705, 1983.
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R .M.: Hysteresis in Cenozoic Antarctic Ice-Sheet variations, Global Planet. Change, 45, 9–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.09.011, 2005.
Quiquet, A., Dumas, C., Paillard, D., Ramstein, G., Ritz, C., and Roche, D. M.: Deglacial Ice Sheet Instabilities Induced by Proglacial Lakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092141, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092141, 2021.
Raymo, M. E.: The timing of major climate terminations, Paleoceanography, 12, 577–585, https://doi.org/10.1029/97PA01169, 1997.
Raymo, M. E, and Nisancioglu, K.: The 41 kyr world: Milankovitch's other unsolved mystery, Paleoceanography, 18, 1011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002PA000791, 2003.
Raymo, M. E. and Ruddiman, W. F.: Tectonic forcing of late cenozoic climate, Nature, 359, 117–122, https://doi.org/10.1038/359117a0, 1992.
Raymo, M. E., Lisiecki, L. E., and Nisancioglu, K. H.: Plio-pleistocene ice volume, Antarctic climate, and the global δ18O record, Science, 313, 492–495, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1123296, 2006.
Ridgwell, A. J., Watson, A. J., and Raymo, M. E.: Is the spectral signature of the 100 kyr glacial cycle consistent with a Milankovitch origin?, Paleoceanography, 14, 437–440, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999PA900018, 1999.
Ridgwell, A. J., Watson, A. J., Maslin, M. A., and Kaplan, J. O.: Implications of coral reef buildup for the controls on atmospheric CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum, Paleoceanography, 18, 1083, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003PA000893, 2003.
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 429–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1449, 2012.
Roe, G. and Allen, M.: A comparison of competing explanations for the 100,000-yr ice age cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2259–2262, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900509, 1999.
Royer, J. F., Deque, M., and Pestiaux, P.: Orbital forcing of the inception of the laurentide ice-sheet, Nature, 304, 43–46, https://doi.org/10.1038/304043a0, 1983.
Ruddiman, W. F.: Oribital insolation, ice volume, and greenhouse gases, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 22, 1597–1629, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00087-8, 2003.
Ruddiman, W. F. and Raymo, M. E.: Northern hemisphere climate regimes during the past 3-ma – possible tectonic connections, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. B, 318, 411–430, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1988.0017, 1988.
Saltzman, B.: Dynamical paleoclimatology: generalized theory of global climate change, in: Vol. 80, Academic Press, ISBN 0-12-617331-1, 2002.
Saltzman, B. and Verbitsky, M. Y.: Multiple instabilities and modes of glacial rhythmicity in the plio-Pleistocene: a general theory of late Cenozoic climatic change, Clim. Dynam., 9, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00208010, 1993.
Shakun, J. D., Raymo, M. E., and Lea, D. W.: An early Pleistocene Mg/Ca-δ18O record from the Gulf of Mexico: Evaluating ice sheet size and pacing in the 41-kyr world, Paleoceanography, 31, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016pa002956, 2016.
Spratt, R. M. and Lisiecki, L. E.: A Late Pleistocene sea level stack, Clim. Past., 12, 1079–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1079-2016, 2016.
Sutter, J., Fischer, H., Grosfeld, K., Karlsson, N. B., Kleiner, T., Van Liefferinge, B., and Eisen, O.: Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet across the mid-Pleistocene transition – implications for Oldest Ice, The Cryosphere, 13, 2023–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2023-2019, 2019.
Tabor, C. R. and Poulsen, C. J.: Simulating the mid-Pleistocene transition through regolith removal, Earth Planet. Sc. Let., 434, 231–240, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.034, 2016.
Talento, S. and Ganopolski, A.: Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, 2021.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Terminating the 100 kyr ice age cycle, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 21665–21693, https://doi.org/10.1029/97jd01766, 1997.
Tzedakis, P. C., Crucifix, M., Mitsui, T., and Wolff, E. W.: A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials, Nature, 542, 427–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21364, 2017.
Tziperman, E. and Gildor, H.: On the mid-Pleistocene transition to 100-kyr glacial cycles and the asymmetry between glaciation and deglaciation times, Paleoceanography, 18, 1001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001PA000627, 2003.
Vavrus, S., Ruddiman, W. F., and Kutzbach, J. E.: Climate model tests of the anthropogenic influence on greenhouse-induced climate change: the role of early human agriculture, industrialization, and vegetation feedbacks, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 1410–1425, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.04.011, 2008.
Verbitsky, M. Y., Crucifix, M., and Volobuev, D. M.: A theory of Pleistocene glacial rhythmicity, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1025–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018, 2018.
Warren, S. G. and Wiscombe, W. J.: A Model for the Spectral Albedo of Snow. II: Snow Containing Atmospheric Aerosols, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2734–2745, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<2734:AMFTSA>2.0.CO;2, 1980.
Watson, A. J., Bakker, D. C. E., Ridgwell, A. J., Boyd, P. W., and Law, C. S.: Effect of iron supply on Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and implications for glacial atmospheric CO2, Nature, 407, 730–733, https://doi.org/10.1038/35037561, 2000.
Weertman, J.: Stability of the Junction of an Ice Sheet and an Ice Shelf, J. Glaciol., 13, 3–11, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000023327, 1974.
Weertman, J.: Milankovitch solar radiation variations and ice age ice sheet sizes, Nature, 261, 17–20, https://doi.org/10.1038/261017a0, 1976.
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A.: The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past., 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018.
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., Robinson, A., and Maslin, M.: The role of CO2 decline for the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 119, 22–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.015, 2015.
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., and Brovkin, V.: Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav7337, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337, 2019.
Yamamoto, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., and Oka, A.: Glacial CO2 decrease and deep-water deoxygenation by iron fertilization from glaciogenic dust, Clim. Past, 15, 981–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-981-2019, 2019.
Yamamoto, M., Clemens, S. C., Seki, O., Tsuchiya, Y., Huang, Y., O'ishi, R., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Increased interglacial atmospheric CO2 levels followed the mid-Pleistocene Transition, Nat. Geosci., 15, 307–313, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00918-1 2022.
Zweck, C. and Huybrechts, P.: Modeling the marine extent of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial cycle, Ann. Glaciol., 37, 173–180, 2003.
Co-editor-in-chief
The Generalized Milankovitch Theory (GMT) presented and discussed in this paper provides a new view on the long-standing problem raised by the Milankovitch theory of glacial-interglacial cycles. The GMT is based on a deep insight into theory, data, and numerical modeling. It condensates the profound knowledge into a fascinatingly elegant dynamic systems theory.
The Generalized Milankovitch Theory (GMT) presented and discussed in this paper provides a new...
Short summary
Despite significant progress in modelling Quaternary climate dynamics, a comprehensive theory of glacial cycles is still lacking. Here, using the results of model simulations and data analysis, I present a framework of the generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT), which further advances the concept proposed by Milutin Milankovitch over a century ago. The theory explains a number of facts which were not known during Milankovitch time's, such as the 100 kyr periodicity of the late Quaternary.
Despite significant progress in modelling Quaternary climate dynamics, a comprehensive theory of...
Special issue