Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
18 Jan 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 18 Jan 2024
| 18 Jan 2024
Toward generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT)
Andrey Ganopolski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Invited contribution by Andrey Ganopolski, recipient of the EGU Milutin Milankovic Medal 2011.
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Cited
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Milankovitch Theory Revisited to Explain the Mid-Pleistocene and Early Quaternary Transitions J. Pinault https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060702
- Path-dependence of the Plio–Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles J. Carrillo et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2322926121
- Quantifying resilience in non-autonomous and stochastic Earth system dynamics with application to glacial-interglacial cycles J. Harteg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-673-2026
- 40Ar/39Ar chronology of sea-level change before and during the interglacial maxima of Marine Isotope Stage 13 E. Di Marcantonio et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105206
- Evidence for long-eccentricity pacing in vegetation dynamics on the North China Plain over the past 2.0 Ma J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.113958
- Human Versus Natural Influences on Climate and Biodiversity: The Carbon Dioxide Connection W. Davis https://doi.org/10.3390/sci7040152
- Simulating global ice volume across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition with a ramp-like increase in the deglaciation threshold F. Pollak et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-675-2026
- The Solar System’s passage through the Radcliffe wave during the middle Miocene E. Maconi et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202452061
- Milankovitch theory “as an initial value problem”: Implications of the long memory of ice advection M. Verbitsky & D. Volobuev https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1989-2025
- Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change C. Kaufhold et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02867-0
- Lineages of Fractal Genera Comprise the 88-Million-Year Steel Evolutionary Spine of the Ecosphere R. Zander https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13111559
- 100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problem T. Mitsui et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025
- Distinct roles for precession, obliquity, and eccentricity in Pleistocene 100-kyr glacial cycles S. Barker et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adp3491
- The Impact of Milankovitch Cycles on Coal Accumulation and Its Implications for Carbon Cycling and Carbon Sequestration: A Case Study of the Pinghu Formation, Area A, Xihu Depression Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/app16062831
- Des glaciations du Quaternaire aux théories du climat D. Paillard https://doi.org/10.4000/15udc
- New estimation of critical insolation–CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception S. Talento et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024
- Exploring the Mid-Pleistocene transition with a simple physical model S. Pérez-Montero et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-625-2026
- A simple physical model for glacial cycles S. Pérez-Montero et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025
- Sensitivity of simulations of Plio–Pleistocene climate with the CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model to details of the global carbon cycle J. Carrillo et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2427236122
- A minimal conceptual model for glacial–interglacial cycles J. Ajagun-Brauns & P. Ditlevsen https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0482
- Carbon cycle dynamics in the subtropical South Atlantic: orbital pacing and regional modulation over the last 772 kyr J. Derntl et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2025.105848
- Automated thermo-hydro-mechanical simulations capturing glacial cycle effects on nuclear waste repositories in clay rock C. Silbermann et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40948-025-00960-4
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Milankovitch Theory Revisited to Explain the Mid-Pleistocene and Early Quaternary Transitions J. Pinault https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060702
- Path-dependence of the Plio–Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles J. Carrillo et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2322926121
- Quantifying resilience in non-autonomous and stochastic Earth system dynamics with application to glacial-interglacial cycles J. Harteg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-673-2026
- 40Ar/39Ar chronology of sea-level change before and during the interglacial maxima of Marine Isotope Stage 13 E. Di Marcantonio et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105206
- Evidence for long-eccentricity pacing in vegetation dynamics on the North China Plain over the past 2.0 Ma J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.113958
- Human Versus Natural Influences on Climate and Biodiversity: The Carbon Dioxide Connection W. Davis https://doi.org/10.3390/sci7040152
- Simulating global ice volume across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition with a ramp-like increase in the deglaciation threshold F. Pollak et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-675-2026
- The Solar System’s passage through the Radcliffe wave during the middle Miocene E. Maconi et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202452061
- Milankovitch theory “as an initial value problem”: Implications of the long memory of ice advection M. Verbitsky & D. Volobuev https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1989-2025
- Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change C. Kaufhold et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02867-0
- Lineages of Fractal Genera Comprise the 88-Million-Year Steel Evolutionary Spine of the Ecosphere R. Zander https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13111559
- 100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problem T. Mitsui et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025
- Distinct roles for precession, obliquity, and eccentricity in Pleistocene 100-kyr glacial cycles S. Barker et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adp3491
- The Impact of Milankovitch Cycles on Coal Accumulation and Its Implications for Carbon Cycling and Carbon Sequestration: A Case Study of the Pinghu Formation, Area A, Xihu Depression Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/app16062831
- Des glaciations du Quaternaire aux théories du climat D. Paillard https://doi.org/10.4000/15udc
- New estimation of critical insolation–CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception S. Talento et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024
- Exploring the Mid-Pleistocene transition with a simple physical model S. Pérez-Montero et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-625-2026
- A simple physical model for glacial cycles S. Pérez-Montero et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025
- Sensitivity of simulations of Plio–Pleistocene climate with the CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model to details of the global carbon cycle J. Carrillo et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2427236122
- A minimal conceptual model for glacial–interglacial cycles J. Ajagun-Brauns & P. Ditlevsen https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0482
- Carbon cycle dynamics in the subtropical South Atlantic: orbital pacing and regional modulation over the last 772 kyr J. Derntl et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2025.105848
- Automated thermo-hydro-mechanical simulations capturing glacial cycle effects on nuclear waste repositories in clay rock C. Silbermann et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40948-025-00960-4
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 21 Aug 2026
Editorial statement
The Generalized Milankovitch Theory (GMT) presented and discussed in this paper provides a new view on the long-standing problem raised by the Milankovitch theory of glacial-interglacial cycles. The GMT is based on a deep insight into theory, data, and numerical modeling. It condensates the profound knowledge into a fascinatingly elegant dynamic systems theory.
The Generalized Milankovitch Theory (GMT) presented and discussed in this paper provides a new...
Short summary
Despite significant progress in modelling Quaternary climate dynamics, a comprehensive theory of glacial cycles is still lacking. Here, using the results of model simulations and data analysis, I present a framework of the generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT), which further advances the concept proposed by Milutin Milankovitch over a century ago. The theory explains a number of facts which were not known during Milankovitch time's, such as the 100 kyr periodicity of the late Quaternary.
Despite significant progress in modelling Quaternary climate dynamics, a comprehensive theory of...
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