Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 20 Feb 2023
| 20 Feb 2023
CHELSA-TraCE21k – high-resolution (1 km) downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the Last Glacial Maximum
Dirk Nikolaus Karger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903
Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Michael P. Nobis
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903
Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Signe Normand
Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 116, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark
Catherine H. Graham
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903
Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903
Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Related authors
Florian Zellweger, Eric Sulmoni, Johanna T. Malle, Andri Baltensweiler, Tobias Jonas, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Christian Ginzler, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Pieter De Frenne, David Frey, and Clare Webster
Biogeosciences, 21, 605–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms living close to the ground are not well represented in currently used climate datasets derived from weather stations. Therefore, we measured and mapped ground microclimate temperatures at 10 m spatial resolution across Switzerland using a novel radiation model. Our results reveal a high variability in microclimates across different habitats and will help to better understand climate and land use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Johanna Teresa Malle, Giulia Mazzotti, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Tobias Jonas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1832, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface processes are crucial for the exchange of carbon, nitrogen and energy in the earth system. Using detailed meteorological and land-use data, we found that higher resolution improved not only the model representation of snow cover, but also plant productivity and water returned to the atmosphere. Only by combining high-resolution models with high-quality input data can we accurately represent complex spatially heterogeneous processes and improve our understanding of the earth system.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Stefan Lange, Chantal Hari, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Olaf Conrad, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2445–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first 1 km, daily, global climate dataset for climate impact studies. We show that the high-resolution data have a decreased bias and higher correlation with measurements from meteorological stations than coarser data. The dataset will be of value for a wide range of climate change impact studies both at global and regional level that benefit from using a consistent global dataset.
Tobias Siegfried, Aziz Ul Haq Mujahid, Beatrice Sabine Marti, Peter Molnar, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Andrey Yakovlev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-520, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study investigates climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia's high-mountain regions. Using new data and a stochastic soil moisture model, we found increased precipitation and higher temperatures in the future, leading to higher water discharge despite decreasing glacier melt contributions. These findings are crucial for understanding and preparing for climate change effects on Central Asia's water resources, with further research needed on extreme weather event impacts.
Philipp Brun, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Chantal Hari, Loïc Pellissier, and Dirk Nikolaus Karger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5573–5603, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5573-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5573-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using mechanistic downscaling, we developed CHELSA-BIOCLIM+, a set of 15 biologically relevant, climate-related variables at unprecedented resolution, as a basis for environmental analyses. It includes monthly time series for 38+ years and 30-year averages for three future periods and three emission scenarios. Estimates matched well with station measurements, but few biases existed. The data allow for detailed assessments of climate-change impact on ecosystems and their services to societies.
Ionuț Iosifescu Enescu, David Hanimann, Dominik Haas-Artho, Marius Rüetschi, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Martin Hägeli, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Lucia de Espona, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Loïc Pellissier
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 119, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-119-2021, 2021
Ionuț Iosifescu Enescu, David Hanimann, Dominik Haas-Artho, Marius Rüetschi, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Martin Hägeli, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Lucia de Espona, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Loïc Pellissier
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 120, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-120-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-120-2021, 2021
Florian Zellweger, Eric Sulmoni, Johanna T. Malle, Andri Baltensweiler, Tobias Jonas, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Christian Ginzler, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Pieter De Frenne, David Frey, and Clare Webster
Biogeosciences, 21, 605–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms living close to the ground are not well represented in currently used climate datasets derived from weather stations. Therefore, we measured and mapped ground microclimate temperatures at 10 m spatial resolution across Switzerland using a novel radiation model. Our results reveal a high variability in microclimates across different habitats and will help to better understand climate and land use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Johanna Teresa Malle, Giulia Mazzotti, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Tobias Jonas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1832, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface processes are crucial for the exchange of carbon, nitrogen and energy in the earth system. Using detailed meteorological and land-use data, we found that higher resolution improved not only the model representation of snow cover, but also plant productivity and water returned to the atmosphere. Only by combining high-resolution models with high-quality input data can we accurately represent complex spatially heterogeneous processes and improve our understanding of the earth system.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Stefan Lange, Chantal Hari, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Olaf Conrad, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2445–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first 1 km, daily, global climate dataset for climate impact studies. We show that the high-resolution data have a decreased bias and higher correlation with measurements from meteorological stations than coarser data. The dataset will be of value for a wide range of climate change impact studies both at global and regional level that benefit from using a consistent global dataset.
Tobias Siegfried, Aziz Ul Haq Mujahid, Beatrice Sabine Marti, Peter Molnar, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Andrey Yakovlev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-520, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study investigates climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia's high-mountain regions. Using new data and a stochastic soil moisture model, we found increased precipitation and higher temperatures in the future, leading to higher water discharge despite decreasing glacier melt contributions. These findings are crucial for understanding and preparing for climate change effects on Central Asia's water resources, with further research needed on extreme weather event impacts.
Philipp Brun, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Chantal Hari, Loïc Pellissier, and Dirk Nikolaus Karger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5573–5603, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5573-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5573-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using mechanistic downscaling, we developed CHELSA-BIOCLIM+, a set of 15 biologically relevant, climate-related variables at unprecedented resolution, as a basis for environmental analyses. It includes monthly time series for 38+ years and 30-year averages for three future periods and three emission scenarios. Estimates matched well with station measurements, but few biases existed. The data allow for detailed assessments of climate-change impact on ecosystems and their services to societies.
Jakob J. Assmann, Jesper E. Moeslund, Urs A. Treier, and Signe Normand
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 823–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-823-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-823-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In 2014 and 2015, the Danish government scanned the whole of Denmark using laser scanners on planes. The information can help biologists learn more about Denmark's natural environment. To make it easier to access the outputs from the scan, we divided the country into 10 m x 10 m squares and summed up the information most relevant to biologists for each square. The result is a set of 70 maps describing the three-dimensional architecture of the Danish landscape and vegetation.
Ionuț Iosifescu Enescu, David Hanimann, Dominik Haas-Artho, Marius Rüetschi, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Martin Hägeli, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Lucia de Espona, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Loïc Pellissier
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 119, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-119-2021, 2021
Ionuț Iosifescu Enescu, David Hanimann, Dominik Haas-Artho, Marius Rüetschi, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Martin Hägeli, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Lucia de Espona, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Loïc Pellissier
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 120, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-120-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-120-2021, 2021
Damiano Righetti, Meike Vogt, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Michael D. Guiry, and Nicolas Gruber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 907–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-907-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-907-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton sustain marine life, as they are the principal primary producers in the global ocean. Despite their ecological importance, their distribution and diversity patterns are poorly known, mostly due to data limitations. We present a global dataset that synthesizes over 1.3 million occurrences of phytoplankton from public archives. It is easily extendable. This dataset can be used to characterize phytoplankton distribution and diversity in current and future oceans.
Zhen Zhang, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Jed O. Kaplan, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 13, 1387–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates improvements and uncertainties associated with estimating global inundated area and wetland CH4 emissions using TOPMODEL. Different topographic information and catchment aggregation schemes are evaluated against seasonal and permanently inundated wetland observations. Reducing uncertainty in prognostic wetland dynamics modeling must take into account forcing data as well as topographic scaling schemes.
D. R. Schmatz, J. Luterbacher, N. E. Zimmermann, and P. B. Pearman
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-2585-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-2585-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate model output for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is downscaled to a very high resolution using the change factor method. We develop two new methods to extend current baseline climate to the LGM coastline so that the final data cover all terrestrial area at LGM. Results are gridded data for temperature, precipitation and 19 bioclimatic variables which are often used in studies on climate change impact on biological diversity, glacial refugia or migration during Holocene warming.
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Holocene
Simulating dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene Green Sahara period
Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate
Contribution of lakes in sustaining the Sahara greening during the mid-Holocene
Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions
Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project
Investigating hydroclimatic impacts of the 168–158 BCE volcanic quartet and their relevance to the Nile River basin and Egyptian history
Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)
Mid-Holocene climate of the Tibetan Plateau and hydroclimate in three major river basins based on high-resolution regional climate simulations
Comparison of the green-to-desert Sahara transitions between the Holocene and the last interglacial
Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode
Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa
Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY
The long-standing dilemma of European summer temperatures at the mid-Holocene and other considerations on learning from the past for the future using a regional climate model
Mid-Holocene monsoons in South and Southeast Asia: dynamically downscaled simulations and the influence of the Green Sahara
The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Impact of dust in PMIP-CMIP6 mid-Holocene simulations with the IPSL model
Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data
Water isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESM
Effects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman Empire
Strengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation
Physical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: results from TraCE-21ka simulations
Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations
Abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulation
Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene
Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions
Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene – an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations
Modeling precipitation δ18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales
Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations
Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene
The link between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle
Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Reexamining the barrier effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoon
Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations
Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia
A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum
Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3
Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity
The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka
Using data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP
Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison
The East Asian Summer Monsoon at mid-Holocene: results from PMIP3 simulations
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Yibo Kang and Haijun Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the climate difference between the mid-Holocene (MH) and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate difference. We think the insignificant difference in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between the MH and PI periods has resulted from the competing effects of the ORBs and the GHGs on the climate.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 18, 2401–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the mid-Holocene (MH; a period with warmer summers than today) will help us understand expected future changes. This study analyses the hydroclimates over the headwater regions of three major rivers originating on the TP using dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Model–data comparisons show that the dynamic downscaling significantly improves both the present-day and MH regional climate simulations of the TP.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
W. Zheng, B. Wu, J. He, and Y. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-453-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-453-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Adams, J. M. and Faure, H.: Preliminary Vegetation Maps of the World since
the Last Glacial Maximum: An Aid to Archaeological Understanding, J.
Archaeol. Sci., 24, 623–647, https://doi.org/10.1006/jasc.1996.0146, 1997.
Allouche, O., Tsoar, A., and Kadmon, R.: Assessing the accuracy of species
distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS),
J. Appl. Ecol., 43, 1223–1232,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x, 2006.
Alsos, I. G., Ehrich, D., Thuiller, W., Eidesen, P. B., Tribsch, A.,
Schönswetter, P., Lagaye, C., Taberlet, P., and Brochmann, C.: Genetic
consequences of climate change for northern plants, P. R. Soc. B, 279, 2042–2051, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.2363, 2012.
Alsos, I. G., Rijal, D. P., Ehrich, D., Karger, D. N., Yoccoz, N. G.,
Heintzman, P. D., Brown, A. G., Lammers, Y., Pellissier, L., Alm, T.,
Bråthen, K. A., Coissac, E., Merkel, M. K. F., Alberti, A., Denoeud, F.,
Bakke, J., and PHYLONORWAY CONSORTIUM: Postglacial species arrival and
diversity buildup of northern ecosystems took millennia, Sci. Adv., 8,
eabo7434, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo7434, 2022.
Argus, D. F., Peltier, W. R., Drummond, R., and Moore, A. W.: The Antarctica
component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based
on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea
level histories, Geophys. J. Int., 198, 537–563,
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu140, 2014.
Basist, A., Bell, G. D., and Meentemeyer, V.: Statistical Relationships
between Topography and Precipitation Patterns, J. Climate, 7, 1305–1315,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1305:SRBTAP>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Fielding, K., Fuentes, M., Kallberg, P., Kobayashi,
S., and Uppala, S.: The ERA-interim archive, ERA Rep. Ser., 1, 1–16, 2009.
Binney, H., Edwards, M., Macias-Fauria, M., Lozhkin, A., Anderson, P.,
Kaplan, J. O., Andreev, A., Bezrukova, E., Blyakharchuk, T., Jankovska, V.,
Khazina, I., Krivonogov, S., Kremenetski, K., Nield, J., Novenko, E.,
Ryabogina, N., Solovieva, N., Willis, K., and Zernitskaya, V.: Vegetation of
Eurasia from the last glacial maximum to present: Key biogeographic
patterns, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 157, 80–97,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.11.022, 2017.
Böhner, J.: General climatic controls and topoclimatic variations in
Central and High Asia, Boreas, 35, 279–295,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1502-3885.2006.tb01158.x, 2006.
Böhner, J. and Antonic, O.:
Land-Surface Parameters Specific to Topo-Climatology, in: GEOMORPHOMETRY: CONCEPTS, SOFTWARE, APPLICATIONS,
edited by: Hengl, T. and Reuter, H. I.,
Geomorphometry: Concepts, Software, Applications, Elsevier Science,
195–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-2481(08)00008-1, 2009.
Brown, J. L., Hill, D. J., Dolan, A. M., Carnaval, A. C., and Haywood, A.
M.: PaleoClim, high spatial resolution paleoclimate surfaces for global land
areas, Sci. Data, 5, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.254, 2018.
Buizert, C., Gkinis, V., Severinghaus, J. P., He, F., Lecavalier, B. S.,
Kindler, P., Leuenberger, M., Carlson, A. E., Vinther, B., Masson-Delmotte,
V., White, J. W. C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Brook, E. J.: Greenland
temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation,
Science, 345, 1177–1180, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254961, 2014.
Buizert, C., Keisling, B. A., Box, J. E., He, F., Carlson, A. E., Sinclair,
G., and DeConto, R. M.: Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last
Deglaciation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1905–1914,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075601, 2018.
Cannon, A. J., Sobie, S. R., and Murdock, T. Q.: Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?, J. Climate, 28, 6938–6959, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1, 2015.
Carlson, A. E., Ullman, D. J., Anslow, F. S., He, F., Clark, P. U., Liu, Z.,
and Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: Modeling the surface mass-balance response of the
Laurentide Ice Sheet to Bølling warming and its contribution to Meltwater
Pulse 1A, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 315–316, 24–29,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.07.008, 2012.
Cerezer, F. O., Machac, A., Rangel, T. F., and Dambros, C. S.: Exceptions to
the rule: Relative roles of time, diversification rates and regional energy
in shaping the inverse latitudinal diversity gradient, Glob. Ecol.
Biogeogr., 31, 1794–1809, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13559, 2022.
Conrad, O. and Wichmann, V.: SAGA GIS, https://sourceforge.net/projects/saga-gis/ (last access: 16 September 2018), 2015.
Daly, C., Neilson, R. P., and Phillips, D. L.: A Statistical-Topographic Model for Mapping Climatological Precipitation over Mountainous Terrain, J. Appl. Meteorol., 33, 140–158, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Daly, C., Taylor, G. H., and Gibson, W. P.: The PRISM approach to mapping
precipitation and temperature, Proc. 10th AMS Conf Appl. Climatol., 20–23, https://prism.oregonstate.edu/documents/pubs/1997appclim_PRISMapproach_daly.pdf (last access: 29 August 2018),
1997.
Danielson, J. J. and Gesch, D. B.: Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010): U.S. Geo-logical Survey Open-File Report 2011–1073, 26 pp.,
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1073/pdf/of2011-1073.pdf
(last access: 29 August 2018), 2011.
Dering, M., Latałowa, M., Boratyńska, K., Kosiński, P., and Boratyński, A.: Could clonality contribute to the northern survival of grey alder [Alnus incana (L.) Moench] during the Last Glacial Maximum?, Acta Soc. Bot. Pol., 86, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5586/asbp.3523, 2016.
Dyke, A. S.: An outline of North American deglaciation with emphasis on
central and northern Canada, in: Developments in Quaternary Sciences, vol. 2, edited by: Ehlers, J. and Gibbard, P. L., Elsevier, 373–424,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1571-0866(04)80209-4, 2004.
Ehlers, J., Gibbard, P. L., and Hughes, P. D.: Quaternary Glaciations –
Extent and Chronology, Volume 15, 1st Edition, ISBN 9780444534477, 2011.
Engler, R. and Guisan, A.: MigClim: Predicting plant distribution and
dispersal in a changing climate, Divers. Distrib., 15, 590–601,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2009.00566.x, 2009.
Erb, M. P., Jackson, C. S., Broccoli, A. J., Lea, D. W., Valdes, P. J.,
Crucifix, M., and DiNezio, P. N.: Model evidence for a seasonal bias in
Antarctic ice cores, Nat. Commun., 9, 1361,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03800-0, 2018.
Frei, C. and Schär, C.: A precipitation climatology of the Alps from
high-resolution rain-gauge observations, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 873–900,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980630)18:8<873::AID-JOC255>3.0.CO;2-9, 1998.
Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanovic, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., van Vliet, M., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., and Yamagata, Y.: Assessing the impacts of 1.5 ∘C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017.
Fuhrer, O., Chadha, T., Hoefler, T., Kwasniewski, G., Lapillonne, X., Leutwyler, D., Lüthi, D., Osuna, C., Schär, C., Schulthess, T. C., and Vogt, H.: Near-global climate simulation at 1 km resolution: establishing a performance baseline on 4888 GPUs with COSMO 5.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1665–1681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1665-2018, 2018.
Gao, X., Xu, Y., Zhao, Z., Pal, J. S., and Giorgi, F.: On the role of
resolution and topography in the simulation of East Asia precipitation,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 86, 173–185,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0214-4, 2006.
Garcés-Pastor, S., Coissac, E., Lavergne, S., Schwörer, C., Theurillat, J.-P., Heintzman, P. D., Wangensteen, O. S., Tinner, W., Rey, F., Heer, M., Rutzer, A., Walsh, K., Lammers, Y., Brown, A. G., Goslar, T., Rijal, D. P., Karger, D. N., Pellissier, L., Heiri, O., and Alsos, I. G.: High resolution ancient sedimentary DNA shows that alpine plant diversity is associated with human land use and climate change, Nat. Commun., 13, 6559, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34010-4, 2022.
Gherghel, I. and Martin, R. A.: Postglacial recolonization of North America
by spadefoot toads: integrating niche and corridor modeling to study
species' range dynamics over geologic time, Ecography, 43, 1499–1509,
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04942, 2020.
greenmind1980: greenmind1980/CHELSA_TraCE21k: Version 1.0 (V1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4545753, 2021.
Guisan, A. and Thuiller, W.: Predicting species distribution: offering more
than simple habitat models, Ecol. Lett., 8, 993–1009, 2005.
Guisan, A. and Zimmermann, N. E.: Predictive habitat distribution models in
ecology, Ecol. Model., 135, 147–186, 2000.
Hampe, A. and Jump, A. S.: Climate Relicts: Past, Present, Future, Annu.
Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 42, 313–333,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102710-145015, 2011.
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P., and Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU
TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset, Sci. Data,
7, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3, 2020.
He, F.: Simulating Transient Climate Evolution of the Last Deglaciation with
CCSM3, PhD Thesis, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WC, USA, 171 pp., https://www.aos.wisc.edu/aosjournal/Volume15/He_PhD_Thesis.pdf (last access: 2 February 2017), 2011.
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., and Piontek, F.: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013.
Hewitt, G. M.: Post-glacial re-colonization of European biota, Biol. J.
Linn. Soc., 68, 87–112, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8312.1999.tb01160.x,
1999.
Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G., and Jarvis, A.:
Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas,
Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1965–1978, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276, 2005.
Hunter, R. D. and Meentemeyer, R. K.: Climatologically Aided Mapping of
Daily Precipitation and Temperature, J. Appl. Meteorol., 44, 1501–1510,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2295.1, 2005.
Hutchinson, G. E.: Population Studies: Animal Ecology and Demography – Concluding Remarks, Cold Spring Harb. Sym., 22, 415–427,
https://doi.org/10.1101/SQB.1957.022.01.039, 1957.
Jalas, J. and Suominen, J. (Eds.): Atlas Florae Europaeae. Distribution of Vascular Plants in Europe. 3. Salicaceae to Balanophoraceae. – The Committee for Mapping the Flora of Europe & Societas Biologica Fennica Vanamo, Helsinki, 128 pp., ISBN 951-9108-02-5, 1976.
Karger, D. N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H.,
Soria-Auza, R. W., Zimmermann, N. E., Linder, H. P., and Kessler, M.:
Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas, Sci.
Data, 4, 170122, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.122, 2017a.
Karger, D. N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H.,
Soria-Auza, R. W., Zimmermann, N. E., Linder, H. P., and Kessler, M.:
Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas, Dryad
Digital Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.kd1d4, 2017b.
Karger, D. N., Schmatz, D. R., Dettling, G., and Zimmermann, N. E.: High
resolution monthly precipitation and temperature timeseries for the period
2006–2100, Sci. Data, 7, 248, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00587-y, 2020.
Karger, D. N., Nobis, M., Normand, S., Graham, C. H., and Zimmermann, N. E.:
CHELSA-TraCE21k: Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data
since the last glacial maximum – EnviDat, envidat [data set],
https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.211, 2021a.
Karger, D. N., Wilson, A. M., Mahony, C., Zimmermann, N. E., and Jetz, W.:
Global daily 1 km land surface precipitation based on cloud cover-informed
downscaling, Sci. Data, 8, 307, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01084-6,
2021b.
Kobashi, T., Severinghaus, J. P., Brook, E. J., Barnola, J.-M., and Grachev,
A. M.: Precise timing and characterization of abrupt climate change 8200
years ago from air trapped in polar ice, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 1212–1222,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.01.009, 2007.
Körner, C.: The use of “altitude” in ecological research, Trends Ecol.
Evol., 22, 569–574, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2007.09.006, 2007.
Lawrence, M. G.: The Relationship between Relative Humidity and the Dewpoint
Temperature in Moist Air: A Simple Conversion and Applications, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 86, 225–234, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-2-225, 2005.
Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Gleason, B. E., Williams, C. N., Wuertz, D.
B., Vose, R. S., and Rennie, J.: An overview of the Global Historical
Climatology Network monthly mean temperature data set, version 3, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D19121,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016187, 2011.
Leugger, F., Broquet, T., Karger, D. N., Rioux, D., Buzan, E., Corlatti, L.,
Crestanello, B., Curt-Grand-Gaudin, N., Hauffe, H. C., Rolečková,
B., Šprem, N., Tissot, N., Tissot, S., Valterová, R., Yannic, G.,
and Pellissier, L.: Dispersal and habitat dynamics shape the genetic
structure of the Northern chamois in the Alps, J. Biogeogr., 49, 1848–1861,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14363, 2022.
Liu, M., Bárdossy, A., and Zehe, E.: Interaction of valleys and circulation patterns (CPs) on spatial precipitation patterns in southern Germany, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4685–4699, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4685-2013, 2013.
Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., He, F., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R., Clark, P.
U., Carlson, A. E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E., Erickson, D.,
Jacob, R., Kutzbach, J., and Cheng, J.: Transient Simulation of Last
Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bølling-Allerød Warming,
Science, 325, 310–314, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1171041, 2009.
Maraun, D.: Bias correction, quantile mapping, and downscaling: Revisiting
the inflation issue, J. Climate, 26, 2137–2143, 2013.
Maraun, D.: Bias Correcting Climate Change Simulations – a Critical Review,
Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 2, 211–220,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x, 2016.
Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J.,
Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., Venema,
V. K. C., Chun, K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones, R. G., Onof, C., Vrac, M., and
Thiele-Eich, I.: Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent
developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user,
Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000314, 2010.
Marcott, S. A., Clark, P. U., Padman, L., Klinkhammer, G. P., Springer, S.
R., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Carlson, A. E., Ungerer, A., Padman, J.,
He, F., Cheng, J., and Schmittner, A.: Ice-shelf collapse from subsurface
warming as a trigger for Heinrich events, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108,
13415–13419, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1104772108, 2011.
McMaster, G. S. and Wilhelm, W. W.: Growing degree-days: one equation, two interpretations, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 87, 291–300, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00027-0, 1997.
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A.
T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper,
S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global climate
projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, ISBN 978 0521 88009-1, 2007.
Meyer-Christoffer, A., Becker, A., Finger, P., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U.,
and Ziese, M.: GPCC Climatology Version 2015 at 0.25∘: Monthly
Land-Surface Precipitation Climatology for Every Month and the Total Year
from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historic Data., Glob. Precip.
Climatol. Cent. GPCC, https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/CLIM_M_V2015_025, 2015.
Miller, K. G., Kominz, M. A., Browning, J. V., Wright, J. D., Mountain, G.
S., Katz, M. E., Sugarman, P. J., Cramer, B. S., Christie-Blick, N., and
Pekar, S. F.: The Phanerozoic Record of Global Sea-Level Change, Science,
310, 1293–1298, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1116412, 2005.
Nelder, J. A. and Wedderburn, R. W. M.: Generalized Linear Models, J. R.
Stat. Soc. Ser. A-Gen., 135, 370–384, https://doi.org/10.2307/2344614, 1972.
Neumann, P., Düben, P., Adamidis, P., Bauer, P., Brück, M.,
Kornblueh, L., Klocke, D., Stevens, B., Wedi, N., and Biercamp, J.:
Assessing the scales in numerical weather and climate predictions: will
exascale be the rescue?, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 377,
20180148, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.0148, 2019.
Nobis, M. P. and Normand, S.: KISSMig – a simple model for R to account for
limited migration in analyses of species distributions, Ecography, 37,
1282–1287, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00930, 2014.
Normand, S., Ricklefs, R. E., Skov, F., Bladt, J., Tackenberg, O., and
Svenning, J.-C.: Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining
plant species ranges in Europe, Philos. T. R. Soc. B,
278, 3644–3653, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.2769, 2011.
Oke, T. R.: Boundary layer climates, Routledge, 464 pp., ISBN 9780415043199, 2002.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Clauzet, G., Tomas, R., Levis, S., and
Kothavala, Z.: Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene Climate in CCSM3, J. Climate,
19, 2526–2544, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3748.1, 2006.
Parducci, L., Jørgensen, T., Tollefsrud, M. M., Elverland, E., Alm, T., Fontana, S. L., Bennett, K. D., Haile, J., Matetovici, I., Suyama, Y., Edwards, M. E., Andersen, K., Rasmussen, M., Boessenkool, S., Coissac, E., Brochmann, C., Taberlet, P., Houmark-Nielsen, M., Larsen, N. K., Orlando, L., Gilbert, M. T. P., Kjær, K. H., Alsos, I. G., and Willerslev, E.: Glacial Survival of Boreal Trees in Northern Scandinavia, Science, 335, 1083–1086, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1216043, 2012.
Pellissier, L., Eidesen, P. B., Ehrich, D., Descombes, P., Schönswetter,
P., Tribsch, A., Westergaard, K. B., Alvarez, N., Guisan, A., Zimmermann, N.
E., Normand, S., Vittoz, P., Luoto, M., Damgaard, C., Brochmann, C., Wisz,
M. S., and Alsos, I. G.: Past climate-driven range shifts and population
genetic diversity in arctic plants, J. Biogeogr., 43, 461–470,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12657, 2015.
Peltier, W. R.: Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age
earth: The ICE-5G (CM2) Model and GRACE, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 32,
111–149, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.32.082503.144359, 2004.
Peltier, W. R., Argus, D. F., and Drummond, R.: Space geodesy constrains ice
age terminal deglaciation: The global ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model,
J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 120, 450–487,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011176, 2015.
Prentice, I. C., Bartlein, P. J., and Webb, T.: Vegetation and Climate
Change in Eastern North America Since the Last Glacial Maximum, Ecology, 72,
2038–2056, https://doi.org/10.2307/1941558, 1991.
Raup, B., Racoviteanu, A., Khalsa, S. J. S., Helm, C., Armstrong, R., and
Arnaud, Y.: The GLIMS geospatial glacier database: A new tool for studying
glacier change, Global Planet. Change, 56, 101–110,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.018, 2007.
Rotunno, R. and Houze, R. A.: Lessons on orographic precipitation from the
Mesoscale Alpine Programme, Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 133, 811–830,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.67, 2007.
Schär, C., Fuhrer, O., Arteaga, A., Ban, N., Charpilloz, C., Di
Girolamo, S., Hentgen, L., Hoefler, T., Lapillonne, X., Leutwyler, D.,
Osterried, K., Panosetti, D., Rüdisühli, S., Schlemmer, L.,
Schulthess, T., Sprenger, M., Ubbiali, S., and Wernli, H.: Kilometer-scale
climate models: Prospects and challenges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0167.1, 2019.
Schmidli, J., Frei, C., and Vidale, P. L.: Downscaling from GCM
precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling
methods, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 679–689, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1287,
2006.
Schulthess, T. C., Bauer, P., Wedi, N., Fuhrer, O., Hoefler, T., and
Schär, C.: Reflecting on the goal and baseline for exascale computing: a
roadmap based on weather and climate simulations, Comput. Sci. Eng., 21,
30–41, 2018.
Scotese, C. R.: Atlas of earth history, PALEOMAP project, http://www.scotese.com/earth.htm (last access: 16 September 2018), 2001.
Seo, C., Thorne, J. H., Hannah, L., and Thuiller, W.: Scale effects in
species distribution models: implications for conservation planning under
climate change, Biol. Lett., 5, 39–43,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0476, 2009.
Sepulchre, P., Caubel, A., Ladant, J.-B., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cozic, A., Donnadieu, Y., Dufresne, J.-L., Estella-Perez, V., Ethé, C., Fluteau, F., Foujols, M.-A., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Marti, O., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Sarr, A.-C., Servonnat, J., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., and Tardif, D.: IPSL-CM5A2 – an Earth system model designed for multi-millennial climate simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3011–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, 2020.
Sevruk, B.: Regional Dependency of Precipitation-Altitude Relationship in
the Swiss Alps, in: Climatic Change at High Elevation Sites, edited by:
Diaz, H. F., Beniston, M., and Bradley, R. S., Springer, the Netherlands,
123–137, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8905-5_7, 1997.
Skamarock, C., Klemp, B., Dudhia, J., Gill, O., Liu, Z., Berner, J., Wang, W., Powers, G., Duda, G., Barker, D., and Huang, X.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Model Version 4.3, No. NCAR/TN-556+STR, https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97, 2021.
Soria-Auza, R. W., Kessler, M., Bach, K., Barajas-Barbosa, P. M., Lehnert,
M., Herzog, S. K., and Bohner, J.: Impact of the quality of climate models
for modelling species occurrences in countries with poor climatic
documentation: a case study from Bolivia, Ecol. Model., 221, 1221–1229,
2010.
Spreen, W. C.: A determination of the effect of topography upon
precipitation, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 28, 285–290,
https://doi.org/10.1029/TR028i002p00285, 1947.
Staples, T. L., Kiessling, W., and Pandolfi, J. M.: Emergence patterns of
locally novel plant communities driven by past climate change and modern
anthropogenic impacts, Ecol. Lett., 25, 1497–1509,
https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14016, 2022.
Stroeven, A. P., Hättestrand, C., Kleman, J., Heyman, J., Fabel, D.,
Fredin, O., Goodfellow, B. W., Harbor, J. M., Jansen, J. D., Olsen, L.,
Caffee, M. W., Fink, D., Lundqvist, J., Rosqvist, G. C., Strömberg, B.,
and Jansson, K. N.: Deglaciation of Fennoscandia, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 147,
91–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.09.016, 2016.
Stull, R. B. (Ed.): An Introduction to Boundary Layer Meteorology, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3027-8, 1988.
Svenning, J.-C. and Skov, F.: Limited filling of the potential range in
European tree species, Ecol. Lett., 7, 565–573,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00614.x, 2004.
Velichko, A. A., Andreev, A. A., and Klimanov, V. A.: Climate and vegetation
dynamics in the tundra and forest zone during the late glacial and holocene,
Quatern. Int., 41–42, 71–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(96)00039-0,
1997.
Weatherall, P., Marks, K. M., Jakobsson, M., Schmitt, T., Tani, S., Arndt,
J. E., Rovere, M., Chayes, D., Ferrini, V., and Wigley, R.: A new digital
bathymetric model of the world's oceans, Earth Space Sci., 2, 331–345,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EA000107, 2015.
Weischet, W. and Endlicher, W.: Einführung in die Allgemeine
Klimatologie, Schweizerbart Science Publishers, Stuttgart, Germany, 342 pp., ISBN 978-3-443-07155-4,
2008.
Wilby, R. L., Wigley, T. M. L., Conway, D., Jones, P. D., Hewitson, B. C.,
Main, J., and Wilks, D. S.: Statistical downscaling of general circulation
model output: A comparison of methods, Water Resour. Res., 34, 2995–3008,
https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR02577, 1998.
Williams, J. W. and Jackson, S. T.: Novel climates, no-analog communities,
and ecological surprises, Front. Ecol. Environ., 5, 475–482, 2007.
Williams, J. W., Shuman, B. N., III, T. W., Bartlein, P. J., and Leduc, P.
L.: Late-Quaternary Vegetation Dynamics in North America: Scaling from Taxa
to Biomes, Ecol. Monogr., 74, 309–334, 2004.
Willmott, C. J. and Robeson, S. M.: Climatologically aided interpolation
(CAI) of terrestrial air temperature, Int. J. Climatol., 15, 221–229,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370150207, 1995.
Wood, A. W., Leung, L. R., Sridhar, V., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic
Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate
Model Outputs, Clim. Change, 62, 189–216,
https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e, 2004.
Woodward, F. I., Fogg, G. E., Heber, U., Laws, R. M., and Franks, F.: The
impact of low temperatures in controlling the geographical distribution of
plants, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 326, 585–593,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1990.0033, 1990.
Yannic, G., Pellissier, L., Ortego, J., Lecomte, N., Couturier, S., Cuyler,
C., Dussault, C., Hundertmark, K. J., Irvine, R. J., Jenkins, D. A.,
Kolpashikov, L., Mager, K., Musiani, M., Parker, K. L., Røed, K. H.,
Sipko, T., Þórisson, S. G., Weckworth, B. V., Guisan, A.,
Bernatchez, L., and Côté, S. D.: Genetic diversity in caribou linked
to past and future climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 132–137,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2074, 2014.
Yannic, G., Hagen, O., Leugger, F., Karger, D. N., and Pellissier, L.:
Harnessing paleo-environmental modeling and genetic data to predict
intraspecific genetic structure, Evol. Appl., 13, 1526–1542,
https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12986, 2020.
Yu, Z., Loisel, J., Brosseau, D. P., Beilman, D. W., and Hunt, S. J.: Global
peatland dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L13402,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043584, 2010.
Short summary
Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km...
