Articles | Volume 18, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jan 2022
Research article |
| 19 Jan 2022
| 19 Jan 2022
Simulating glacial dust changes in the Southern Hemisphere using ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3
Stephan Krätschmer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Michèlle van der Does
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Frank Lamy
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Gerrit Lohmann
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Physics Department, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Christoph Völker
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Martin Werner
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
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Thibaut Caley, Niclas Rieger, Martin Werner, Claire Waelbroeck, Héloïse Barathieu, Tamara Happé, and Didier M. Roche
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2459, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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Density of seawater is a critical property that controls ocean dynamics. We developed the use of the δ18Oc of planktonic foraminifera as a surface paleodensity proxy for the whole ocean using Bayesian regression models calibrated to annual surface density. We reconstructed annual surface density during the last glacial maximum and late Holocene time periods. These results will be used to evaluate numerical climate models in their ability to simulate past ocean surface density.
Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for about 25 % of the poleward ocean heat transport. Currently, the AMOC strength is mostly calculated in depth space (z-AMOC). However, we argue that, in warmer climates, the AMOC should be calculated in density space (ρ-AMOC). We performed simulations with CO2 forcing of 280 ppmv (PI) and 1120 ppmv of (4xCO2) and find that ρ-AMOC provides more physical and meaningful information about the AMOC in warmer climates.
Miriam Seifert, Christopher Danek, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1495, 2025
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Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) can help to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Yet, our study is the first that investigates the link between OAE and phytoplankton in an Earth System Model. We show that OAE can indirectly decrease primary production, and that biological feedbacks can modify the efficiency of OAE. Our study provides hints for ecological risks of OAE and the quantification of carbon drawdown, and can serve as a kick-start for other models to consider OAE-ecosystem interactions.
Ying Ye, Guy Munhoven, Peter Köhler, Martin Butzin, Judith Hauck, Özgür Gürses, and Christoph Völker
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 977–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, 2025
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Many biogeochemistry models assume all material reaching the seafloor is remineralized and returned to solution, which is sufficient for studies on short-term climate change. Under long-term climate change, the carbon storage in sediments slows down carbon cycling and influences feedbacks in the atmosphere–ocean–sediment system. This paper describes the coupling of a sediment model to an ocean biogeochemistry model and presents results under the pre-industrial climate and under CO2 perturbation.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
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We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 419–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, 2025
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Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Wee Wei Khoo, Juliane Müller, Oliver Esper, Wenshen Xiao, Christian Stepanek, Paul Gierz, Gerrit Lohmann, Walter Geibert, Jens Hefter, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 21, 299–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, 2025
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Using a multiproxy approach, we analyzed biomarkers and diatom assemblages from a marine sediment core from the Powell Basin, Weddell Sea. The results reveal the first continuous coastal Antarctic sea ice record since the Last Penultimate Glacial. Our findings contribute valuable insights into past glacial–interglacial sea ice responses to a changing climate and enhance our understanding of ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and dynamics.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Allegra N. LeGrande, Erin L. McClymont, Agatha de Boer, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, 2025
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We used climate models to study how stable water isotopes in ice cores changed in the Arctic and Antarctica during the warm Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Whilst standard simulations underestimate polar warming, when the effects of ice sheet meltwater from the preceding deglaciation are included, there is a much better match with observations. Findings suggest that previous estimates of LIG Arctic warming were too high. Understanding these past polar changes can help improve future predictions.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Luca Alexander Müller-Ißberner, Elisabeth Dietze, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4011, 2025
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Using model simulations, we show that the larger seasonal temperature amplitude during the mid Holocene and last interglaical led to marked surficial thaw during warm summers, while cold winters allowed for permafrost persistence at depth and more active thermal contraction cracking. We argue that past interglacial climates have limited suitability as analogues for future permafrost dynamics, for which a trajectory of unprecedented thaw magnitude since at least 400000 years is anticipated.
Inès Ollivier, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Barbara Stenni, Laurent Arnaud, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giuliano Dreossi, Christophe Genthon, Bénédicte Minster, Ghislain Picard, Martin Werner, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 19, 173–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-173-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-173-2025, 2025
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The role of post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface on the water stable isotope signal measured in polar ice cores is not fully understood. Using field observations and modelling results, we show that the original precipitation isotopic signal at Dome C, East Antarctica, is modified by post-depositional processes and provide the first quantitative estimation of their mean impact on the isotopic signal observed in the snow.
Daniele Zannoni, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Harald Sodemann, Iris Thurnherr, Cyrille Flamant, Patrick Chazette, Julien Totems, Martin Werner, and Myriam Raybaut
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3394, 2025
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High resolution airborne observations reveal that mixing between the free troposphere and surface evapotranspiration flux primarly modulates the water vapor isotopic composition in the lower troposphere. Water vapor isotopes structure variations occur on the scale of 100s of m, underlying the utility of stable isotopes for studying microscale atmospheric dynamics. This study also provides the basis for better validation of water vapor isotopes remote sensing retrievals with surface observations.
Hubert B. Vonhof, Sophie Verheyden, Dominique Bonjean, Stéphane Pirson, Michael Weber, Denis Scholz, John Hellstrom, Hai Cheng, Xue Jia, Kévin Di Modica, Gregory Abrams, Marjan A. P. van Nunen, Joost Ruiter, Michèlle van der Does, Daniel Böhl, and Jeroen H. J. L. van der Lubbe
Clim. Past, 20, 2741–2758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2741-2024, 2024
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The sedimentary sequence in Scladina Cave (Belgium) is well-known for its rich archeological assemblages and its numerous faunal remains. Of particular interest is the presence of a nearly complete jaw bone of a Neanderthal child. In this study, we present new uranium series ages of stalagmites from the archeological sequence that allow more precise dating of the archeological finds. One key result is that the Neanderthal child may be slightly older than previously thought.
Lutz Schirrmeister, Margret C. Fuchs, Thomas Opel, Andrei Andreev, Frank Kienast, Andrea Schneider, Larisa Nazarova, Larisa Frolova, Svetlana Kuzmina, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Vladimir Tumskoy, Heidrun Matthes, Gerit Lohmann, Guido Grosse, Viktor Kunitsky, Hanno Meyer, Heike H. Zimmermann, Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Boehmer, Stuart Umbo, Sevi Modestou, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Anfisa Pismeniuk, Georg Schwamborn, Stephanie Kusch, and Sebastian Wetterich
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-74, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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The strong ecosystem response to the Last Interglacial warming, reflected in the high diversity of proxies, shows the sensitivity of permafrost regions to rising temperatures. In particular, the development of thermokarst landscapes created a mosaic of terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic habitats, fostering an increase in biodiversity. This biodiversity is evident in the rich variety of terrestrial insects, vegetation, and aquatic invertebrates preserved in these deposits.
Hu Yang, Xiaoxu Shi, Xulong Wang, Qingsong Liu, Yi Zhong, Xiaodong Liu, Youbin Sun, Yanjun Cai, Fei Liu, Gerrit Lohmann, Martin Werner, Zhimin Jian, Tainã M. L. Pinho, Hai Cheng, Lijuan Lu, Jiping Liu, Chao-Yuan Yang, Qinghua Yang, Yongyun Hu, Xing Cheng, Jingyu Zhang, and Dake Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2778, 2024
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The precession driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by hemispheric summer insolation, but shifting perihelion.
Yugeng Chen, Pengyang Song, Xianyao Chen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 20, 2001–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, 2024
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Our study examines the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a period with higher tidal dissipation. Despite increased tidal mixing, our model simulations show that the AMOC remained relatively shallow, consistent with paleoproxy data and resolving previous inconsistencies between proxy data and model simulations. This research highlights the importance of strong ocean stratification during the LGM and its interaction with tidal mixing.
Giuliano Dreossi, Mauro Masiol, Barbara Stenni, Daniele Zannoni, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Mathieu Casado, Amaëlle Landais, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giampietro Casasanta, Massimo Del Guasta, Vittoria Posocco, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 18, 3911–3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, 2024
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Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes have been extensively used to reconstruct past temperatures, with precipitation representing the input signal of the isotopic records in ice cores. We present a 10-year record of stable isotopes in daily precipitation at Concordia Station: this is the longest record for inland Antarctica and represents a benchmark for quantifying post-depositional processes and improving the paleoclimate interpretation of ice cores.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
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We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Amaelle Landais, Cécile Agosta, Françoise Vimeux, Olivier Magand, Cyrielle Solis, Alexandre Cauquoin, Niels Dutrievoz, Camille Risi, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Olivier Cattani, Olivier Jossoud, Bénédicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Mathieu Casado, Aurélien Dommergue, Yann Bertrand, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4611–4634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, 2024
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We have monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 on Amsterdam Island in the Indian Ocean. We show 11 periods associated with abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18Ο. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury, suggesting subsidence of air from a higher altitude. Accurately representing the water isotopic signal during these cold fronts is a real challenge for the atmospheric components of Earth system models equipped with water isotopes.
Jennifer L. Middleton, Julia Gottschalk, Gisela Winckler, Jean Hanley, Carol Knudson, Jesse R. Farmer, Frank Lamy, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Expedition 383 Scientists
Geochronology, 6, 125–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-125-2024, 2024
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We present oxygen isotope data for a new sediment core from the South Pacific and assign ages to our record by aligning distinct patterns in observed oxygen isotope changes to independently dated target records with the same patterns. We examine the age uncertainties associated with this approach caused by human vs. automated alignment and the sensitivity of outcomes to the choice of alignment target. These efforts help us understand the timing of past climate changes.
Moein Mellat, Amy R. Macfarlane, Camilla F. Brunello, Martin Werner, Martin Schneebeli, Ruzica Dadic, Stefanie Arndt, Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen, Jeffrey M. Welker, and Hanno Meyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, 2024
Preprint archived
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Our research, utilizing data from the Arctic MOSAiC expedition, reveals how snow on Arctic sea ice changes due to weather conditions. By analyzing snow samples collected over a year, we found differences in snow layers that tell us about their origins and how they've been affected by the environment. We discovered variations in snow and vapour that reflect the influence of weather patterns and surface processes like wind and sublimation.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
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The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
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Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Benedicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Leila Petit, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 17, 5241–5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, 2023
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In the face of global warming, understanding the changing water cycle and temperatures in polar regions is crucial. These factors directly impact the balance of ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic. By studying the composition of water vapor, we gain insights into climate variations. Our 2-year study at Dumont d’Urville station, Adélie Land, offers valuable data to refine models. Additionally, we demonstrate how modeling aids in interpreting signals from ice core samples in the region.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 5131–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, 2023
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We compare components of the surface energy balance from two datasets, ERA5 and ERA-Interim, which can be used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). ERA5 differs significantly from ERA-Interim, especially in the melt regions with lower temperatures and stronger shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS SMB from ERA-Interim need to be carefully recalibrated before conversion to ERA5 forcing.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
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We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
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Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Julia Rieke Hagemann, Lester Lembke-Jene, Frank Lamy, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Jérôme Kaiser, Juliane Müller, Helge W. Arz, Jens Hefter, Andrea Jaeschke, Nicoletta Ruggieri, and Ralf Tiedemann
Clim. Past, 19, 1825–1845, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1825-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1825-2023, 2023
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Alkenones and glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids (GDGTs) are common biomarkers for past water temperatures. In high latitudes, determining temperature reliably is challenging. We analyzed 33 Southern Ocean sediment surface samples and evaluated widely used global calibrations for both biomarkers. For GDGT-based temperatures, previously used calibrations best reflect temperatures >5° C; (sub)polar temperature bias necessitates a new calibration which better aligns with modern values.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
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This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
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We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Özgür Gürses, Laurent Oziel, Onur Karakuş, Dmitry Sidorenko, Christoph Völker, Ying Ye, Moritz Zeising, Martin Butzin, and Judith Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4883–4936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, 2023
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This paper assesses the biogeochemical model REcoM3 coupled to the ocean–sea ice model FESOM2.1. The model can be used to simulate the carbon uptake or release of the ocean on timescales of several hundred years. A detailed analysis of the nutrients, ocean productivity, and ecosystem is followed by the carbon cycle. The main conclusion is that the model performs well when simulating the observed mean biogeochemical state and variability and is comparable to other ocean–biogeochemical models.
Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, 2023
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Our study reveals how a decline in autumn sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas leads to severe winters in Europe. Using observational data, we illustrate that Arctic sea ice loss isn't just a local issue – it impacts harsh winter conditions globally. Current climate models struggle to reflect these effects accurately, indicating a need for more research. Gaining a more nuanced understanding of this relationship will enhance our climate predictions and preparation for future extremes.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Wing-Le Chan, André Paul, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 19, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, 2023
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Stable water isotopes are tracers of climate processes occurring in the hydrological cycle. They are widely used to reconstruct the past variations of polar temperature before the instrumental era thanks to their measurements in ice cores. However, the relationship between measured isotopes and temperature has large uncertainties. In our study, we investigate how the sea surface conditions (temperature, sea ice, ocean circulation) impact this relationship for a cold to warm climate change.
Pengyang Song, Dmitry Sidorenko, Patrick Scholz, Maik Thomas, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 383–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, 2023
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Tides have essential effects on the ocean and climate. Most previous research applies parameterised tidal mixing to discuss their effects in models. By comparing the effect of a tidal mixing parameterisation and tidal forcing on the ocean state, we assess the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. Our results show that tidal mixing in the North Pacific Ocean strongly affects the global thermohaline circulation. We also list some effects that are not considered in the parameterisation.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
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We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Jiajia Wang, Hongxi Pang, Shuangye Wu, Spruce W. Schoenemann, Ryu Uemura, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Summer Rupper, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Stable water isotopic observations in surface snow over Antarctica provide a basis for validating isotopic models and interpreting Antarctic ice core records. This study presents a new compilation of Antarctic surface snow isotopic dataset based on published and unpublished sources. The database has a wide range of potential applications in studying spatial distribution of water isotopes, model validation, and reconstruction and interpretation of Antarctic ice core records.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Jan Streffing, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, Patrick Scholz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Nikolay Koldunov, Thomas Rackow, Joakim Kjellsson, Helge Goessling, Marylou Athanase, Qiang Wang, Jan Hegewald, Dmitry V. Sein, Longjiang Mu, Uwe Fladrich, Dirk Barbi, Paul Gierz, Sergey Danilov, Stephan Juricke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6399–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, 2022
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We developed a new atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, AWI-CM3. Our model is significantly more computationally efficient than its predecessors AWI-CM1 and AWI-CM2. We show that the model, although cheaper to run, provides results of similar quality when modeling the historic period from 1850 to 2014. We identify the remaining weaknesses to outline future work. Finally we preview an improved simulation where the reduction in computational cost has to be invested in higher model resolution.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
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We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Stefan Mulitza, Torsten Bickert, Helen C. Bostock, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Barbara Donner, Aline Govin, Naomi Harada, Enqing Huang, Heather Johnstone, Henning Kuhnert, Michael Langner, Frank Lamy, Lester Lembke-Jene, Lorraine Lisiecki, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Lars Max, Mahyar Mohtadi, Gesine Mollenhauer, Juan Muglia, Dirk Nürnberg, André Paul, Carsten Rühlemann, Janne Repschläger, Rajeev Saraswat, Andreas Schmittner, Elisabeth L. Sikes, Robert F. Spielhagen, and Ralf Tiedemann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2553–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2553-2022, 2022
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Stable isotope ratios of foraminiferal shells from deep-sea sediments preserve key information on the variability of ocean circulation and ice volume. We present the first global atlas of harmonized raw downcore oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of various planktonic and benthic foraminiferal species. The atlas is a foundation for the analyses of the history of Earth system components, for finding future coring sites, and for teaching marine stratigraphy and paleoceanography.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Sebastian Hinck, Evan J. Gowan, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022
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Proglacial lakes were pervasive along the retreating continental ice margins after the Last Glacial Maximum. Similarly to the marine ice boundary, interactions at the ice-lake interface impact ice sheet dynamics and mass balance. Previous numerical ice sheet modeling studies did not include a dynamical lake boundary. We describe the implementation of an adaptive lake boundary condition in PISM and apply the model to the glacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Justus Contzen, Thorsten Dickhaus, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1803–1820, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, 2022
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Climate models are of paramount importance to predict future climate changes. Since many severe consequences of climate change are due to extreme events, the accurate behaviour of models in terms of extremes needs to be validated thoroughly. We present a method for model validation in terms of climate extremes and an algorithm to detect regions in which extremes tend to occur at the same time. These methods are applied to data from different climate models and to observational data.
Daniel Balting, Simon Michel, Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, 2022
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Vapor pressure deficit is a key component of vegetation dynamics, soil science, meteorology, and soil science. In this study, we reconstruct the variability of the vapor pressure deficit in the past and examine the changes in future scenarios using climate models. In this way, past, present and future changes of the vapor pressure deficit can be detected locally, regionally, and continentally with higher statistical significance.
María H. Toyos, Gisela Winckler, Helge W. Arz, Lester Lembke-Jene, Carina B. Lange, Gerhard Kuhn, and Frank Lamy
Clim. Past, 18, 147–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-147-2022, 2022
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Past export production in the southeast Pacific and its link to Patagonian ice dynamics is unknown. We reconstruct biological productivity changes at the Pacific entrance to the Drake Passage, covering the past 400 000 years. We show that glacial–interglacial variability in export production responds to glaciogenic Fe supply from Patagonia and silica availability due to shifts in oceanic fronts, whereas dust, as a source of lithogenic material, plays a minor role.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, 2021
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Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
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We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
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Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Nele Lamping, Juliane Müller, Jens Hefter, Gesine Mollenhauer, Christian Haas, Xiaoxu Shi, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Gerrit Lohmann, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 17, 2305–2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, 2021
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We analysed biomarker concentrations on surface sediment samples from the Antarctic continental margin. Highly branched isoprenoids and GDGTs are used for reconstructing recent sea-ice distribution patterns and ocean temperatures respectively. We compared our biomarker-based results with data obtained from satellite observations and estimated from a numerical model and find reasonable agreements. Further, we address caveats and provide recommendations for future investigations.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
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In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
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The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Marcus Breil, Emanuel Christner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Melanie Karremann, and Gerd Schädler
Clim. Past, 17, 1685–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, 2021
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For the first time an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation for Greenland is performed for the mid-Holocene. Simulation results are compared with observed isotope ratios in ice cores. Compared to global climate simulations, a regional downscaling improves the agreement with measured isotope concentrations. Thus, an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation constitutes a useful supplement to reconstruct regional paleo-climate conditions during the mid-Holocene in Greenland.
Xiaoxu Shi, Dirk Notz, Jiping Liu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4891–4908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, 2021
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The ice–ocean heat flux is one of the key elements controlling sea ice changes. It motivates our study, which aims to examine the responses of modeled climate to three ice–ocean heat flux parameterizations, including two old approaches that assume one-way heat transport and a new one describing a double-diffusive ice–ocean heat exchange. The results show pronounced differences in the modeled sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere states for the latter as compared to the former two parameterizations.
Thomas Münch, Martin Werner, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 17, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, 2021
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We analyse Holocene climate model simulation data to find the locations of Antarctic ice cores which are best suited to reconstruct local- to regional-scale temperatures. We find that the spatial decorrelation scales of the temperature variations and of the noise from precipitation intermittency set an effective sampling length scale. Following this, a single core should be located at the
target site for the temperature reconstruction, and a second one optimally lies more than 500 km away.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
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Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, Christian B. Rodehacke, Shan Xu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, 2021
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The surface mass balance scheme dEBM (diurnal Energy Balance Model) provides a novel, computationally inexpensive interface between the atmosphere and land ice for Earth system modeling. The dEBM is particularly suitable for Earth system modeling on multi-millennial timescales as it accounts for changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.
Daniel F. Balting, Monica Ionita, Martin Wegmann, Gerhard Helle, Gerhard H. Schleser, Norel Rimbu, Mandy B. Freund, Ingo Heinrich, Diana Caldarescu, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 17, 1005–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, 2021
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To extend climate information back in time, we investigate the climate sensitivity of a δ18O network from tree rings, consisting of 26 European sites and covering the last 400 years. Our results suggest that the δ18O variability is associated with large-scale anomaly patterns that resemble those observed for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We conclude that the investigation of large-scale climate signals far beyond instrumental records can be done with a δ18O network derived from tree rings.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
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Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Rüdiger Stein, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021
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Maps and fields of near-sea-surface temperature differences between the past and present can be used to visualize and quantify climate changes and perform simulations with climate models. We used a statistical method to map sparse and scattered data for the Last Glacial Maximum time period (23 000 to 19 000 years before present) to a regular grid. The estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity in the lower to middle part of the currently accepted range.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Tobias R. Vonnahme, Martial Leroy, Silke Thoms, Dick van Oevelen, H. Rodger Harvey, Svein Kristiansen, Rolf Gradinger, Ulrike Dietrich, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 18, 1719–1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1719-2021, 2021
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Diatoms are crucial for Arctic coastal spring blooms, and their growth is controlled by nutrients and light. At the end of the bloom, inorganic nitrogen or silicon can be limiting, but nitrogen can be regenerated by bacteria, extending the algal growth phase. Modeling these multi-nutrient dynamics and the role of bacteria is challenging yet crucial for accurate modeling. We recreated spring bloom dynamics in a cultivation experiment and developed a representative dynamic model.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Maria-Elena Vorrath, Juliane Müller, Lorena Rebolledo, Paola Cárdenas, Xiaoxu Shi, Oliver Esper, Thomas Opel, Walter Geibert, Práxedes Muñoz, Christian Haas, Gerhard Kuhn, Carina B. Lange, Gerrit Lohmann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 16, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, 2020
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We tested the applicability of the organic biomarker IPSO25 for sea ice reconstructions in the industrial era at the western Antarctic Peninsula. We successfully evaluated our data with satellite sea ice observations. The comparison with marine and ice core records revealed that sea ice interpretations must consider climatic and sea ice dynamics. Sea ice biomarker production is mainly influenced by the Southern Annular Mode, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation seems to have a minor impact.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Christian Stepanek, Eric Samakinwa, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 2275–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, 2020
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Future climate is expected to be warmer than today. We study climate based on simulations of the mid-Pliocene (about 3 million years ago), which was a time of elevated temperatures, and discuss implications for the future. Our results are provided towards a comparison to both proxy evidence and output of other climate models. We simulate a mid-Pliocene climate that is both warmer and wetter than today. Some climate characteristics can be more directly transferred to the near future than others.
Florian Fuhrmann, Benedikt Diensberg, Xun Gong, Gerrit Lohmann, and Frank Sirocko
Clim. Past, 16, 2221–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2221-2020, 2020
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Proxy data of sediment cores, speleothem, pollen and isotope data were used to reconstruct past aridity of eight regions of the world over the last 60 000 years. These regions show humid conditions during the early MIS3 (60 to 45 ka). Also the early Holocene (14 to 6 ka) was humid throughout the regions. In contrast, MIS2 and the LGM were arid in Northern Nemisphere records. On- and offsets of aridity/humidity differ between the regions. All this is in good agreement with recent model results.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
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The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
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In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
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Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
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This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
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We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Eric Samakinwa, Christian Stepanek, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1643–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1643-2020, 2020
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Boundary conditions, forcing, and methodology for the two phases of PlioMIP differ considerably. We compare results from PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 simulations. We also carry out sensitivity experiments to infer the relative contribution of different boundary conditions to mid-Pliocene warmth. Our results show dominant effects of mid-Pliocene geography on the climate state and also that prescribing orbital forcing for different time slices within the mid-Pliocene could lead to pronounced variations.
Paul Gierz, Lars Ackermann, Christian B. Rodehacke, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian Stepanek, Dirk Barbi, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-159, 2020
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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In this study, we describe the SCOPE coupler, which is used connect the ECHAM6/JSBACH/FESOM1.4 climate model to the PISM 1.1.4 ice sheet model. This system is used to simulate IPCC scenarios projected for the future, and several warm periods in the past; the mid Holocene and the Last Interglacial. Our new model allows us to simulate the ice sheet’s response to changes in the climatic conditions, providing a new avenue of investigation over the previous models, which keep the cryosphere fixed.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020
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Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Jianjun Zou, Xuefa Shi, Aimei Zhu, Selvaraj Kandasamy, Xun Gong, Lester Lembke-Jene, Min-Te Chen, Yonghua Wu, Shulan Ge, Yanguang Liu, Xinru Xue, Gerrit Lohmann, and Ralf Tiedemann
Clim. Past, 16, 387–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, 2020
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Large-scale reorganization of global ocean circulation has been documented in a variety of marine archives, including the enhanced North Pacific Intermediate Water NPIW. Our data support both the model- and data-based ideas that the enhanced NPIW mainly developed during cold spells, while an expansion of oxygen-poor zones occurred at warming intervals (Bölling-Alleröd).
Xingxing Liu, Youbin Sun, Jef Vandenberghe, Peng Cheng, Xu Zhang, Evan J. Gowan, Gerrit Lohmann, and Zhisheng An
Clim. Past, 16, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, 2020
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The East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon are anticorrelated on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. The centennial monsoon variability is connected to changes of both solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events during the Early Holocene. Then, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of events during the Late Holocene. This work presents the great challenge and potential to understand the response of the monsoon system to global climate changes in the past and the future.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Mariem Saavedra-Pellitero, Karl-Heinz Baumann, Miguel Ángel Fuertes, Hartmut Schulz, Yann Marcon, Nele Manon Vollmar, José-Abel Flores, and Frank Lamy
Biogeosciences, 16, 3679–3702, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3679-2019, 2019
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Open ocean phytoplankton include coccolithophore algae, a key element in carbon cycle regulation with important feedbacks to the climate system. We document latitudinal variability in both coccolithophore assemblage and the mass variation in one particular species, Emiliania huxleyi, for a transect across the Drake Passage (in the Southern Ocean). Coccolithophore abundance, diversity and maximum depth habitat decrease southwards, coinciding with changes in the predominant E. huxleyi morphotypes.
Laia Comas-Bru, Sandy P. Harrison, Martin Werner, Kira Rehfeld, Nick Scroxton, Cristina Veiga-Pires, and SISAL working group members
Clim. Past, 15, 1557–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, 2019
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We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled climate model to provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations and the optimum period for the modern observational baseline. We also illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Suzanne Preunkert, Michel Legrand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 13, 1297–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, 2019
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We report new water stable isotope records from the first highly resolved firn core drilled in Adélie Land and covering 1998–2014. Using an updated database, we show that mean values are in line with the range of coastal values. Statistical analyses show no relationship between our record and local surface air temperature. Atmospheric back trajectories and isotopic simulations suggest that water stable isotopes in Adélie provide a fingerprint of the variability of atmospheric dynamics.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
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Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
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Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Evan J. Gowan, Lu Niu, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, 2019
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The speed of ice sheet flow is largely controlled by the strength of the ice–bed interface. We present three datasets on the geological properties of regions in North America, Greenland and Iceland that were covered by Quaternary ice sheets. These include the grain size of glacial sediments, the continuity of sediment cover and bedrock geology. Simple ice modelling experiments show that altering the basal strength of the ice sheet on the basis of these datasets impacts ice thickness.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 3923–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3923-2018, 2018
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We present a new surface melt scheme for land ice. Derived from the energy balance of melting surfaces, the scheme may be particularly suitable for long ice-sheet simulations of past and future climates. It is computationally inexpensive and can be adapted to changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric composition. The scheme yields a better spatial representation of surface melt than common empirical schemes when applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet under present-day climate conditions.
Friederike Grimmer, Lydie Dupont, Frank Lamy, Gerlinde Jung, Catalina González, and Gerold Wefer
Clim. Past, 14, 1739–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1739-2018, 2018
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We present the first marine pollen record of the early Pliocene from western equatorial South America. Our reconstruction of the vegetation aims to provide insights into hydrological changes related to tectonic events (Central American Seaway closure, uplift of the Northern Andes). We find stable humid conditions, suggesting a southern location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The presence of high montane vegetation indicates an early uplift of the Western Cordillera of the northern Andes.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Axel Wagner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Matthias Prange
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, 2018
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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This study demonstrates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on variations in grid resolution and resolution-dependent orography in simulations of the Mid-Holocene. A set of Mid-Holocene sensitivity experiments is carried out. The simulated Mid-Holocene temperature differences (low versus high resolution) reveal a response that regionally exceeds the Mid-Holocene to preindustrial modelled temperature anomalies, and show partly reversed signs across the same geographical regions.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
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Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Anaïs Orsi, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 14, 923–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes are key tools to explore the links between climate variables and precipitation isotopic composition and thus to quantify past temperature changes using ice core records. Here, we evaluate the skills of ECHAM5-wiso to simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of Antarctic climate and precipitation isotopic composition at the regional scale, thanks to a database of precipitation and ice core records.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
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We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Akil Hossain, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Norel Rimbu, Monica Ionita, Markus Czymzik, Achim Brauer, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Multi-decadal to millennial flood frequency variations in the Mid- to Late Holocene in a flood layer record from Lake Ammersee is strongly related to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperatures in the northeastern Europe.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
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Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Lu Niu, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian Hinck, and Evan J. Gowan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-105, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial-interglacial cycle is investigated by using output from PMIP3 models. The results show large diversity in simulated ice sheets between different models. We found that summer surface air temperature pattern resembles the ice sheet extent pattern at the LGM. This study implies careful constrains on climate output is essential for simulating reliable glacial-interglacial Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.
Vera D. Meyer, Jens Hefter, Gerrit Lohmann, Lars Max, Ralf Tiedemann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 13, 359–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-359-2017, 2017
Matthias Schneider, Christian Borger, Andreas Wiegele, Frank Hase, Omaira E. García, Eliezer Sepúlveda, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 507–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, 2017
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The characteristics of {H2O,δD} pair space-based remote sensing data depend on the atmospheric and surface conditions, which compromises their usage for model evaluation studies. This paper shows how the problem can be overcome by simulating MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} remote sensing products for any given model atmosphere. The remote sensing retrieval simulator is freely provided as a MATLAB and Python routine.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Susanne Preunkert, Michel Fily, Hubert Gallée, Bruno Jourdain, Michel Legrand, Olivier Magand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 11, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, 2017
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Uncertainty of sea level changes is a challenge. As Antarctica is the biggest water reservoir, it is necessary to know how it will contribute. To be able to simulate it, an understanding of past climate is to be achieved, for instance, by studying the ice cores. As climate change is different in different regions, observations are needed all over the continent. Studying an ice core in Adélie Land, we can conclude that there are no changes there at decadal scale over the period 1947–2007.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl
The Cryosphere, 10, 1647–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016
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We present successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.
Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Roland Seferian, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016
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We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
Madlene Pfeiffer and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 12, 1313–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1313-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1313-2016, 2016
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The Last Interglacial was warmer, with a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), compared to the late Holocene. We analyse – through climate model simulations – the impact of a reduced GIS on the global surface air temperature and find a relatively strong warming especially in the Northern Hemisphere. These results are then compared to temperature reconstructions, indicating good agreement with respect to the pattern. However, the simulated temperatures underestimate the proxy-based temperatures.
Anna Dittmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Martin Werner, and Koji Fujita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016
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For a better understanding of the stable water isotope data from ice cores, recent time periods have to be analysed, where both measurements and model simulations are available. This was done for Dome Fuji by combining observations, synoptic analysis, back trajectories, and isotopic modelling. It was found that a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site and thus precipitation more depleted in heavy isotopes.
Norel Rimbu, Markus Czymzik, Monica Ionita, Gerrit Lohmann, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 377–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, 2016
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
M. Stärz, G. Lohmann, and G. Knorr
Clim. Past, 12, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, 2016
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In order to account for coupled climate-soil processes, we developed a soil scheme which is asynchronously coupled to an earth system model. We tested the scheme and found additional warming for a relatively warm climate (mid-Holocene), and extra cooling for a colder (Last Glacial Maximum) than preindustrial climate. These findings indicate a relatively strong positive soil feedback to climate, which may help to reduce model-data discrepancies for the climate of the geological past.
M. Forrest, J. T. Eronen, T. Utescher, G. Knorr, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, and T. Hickler
Clim. Past, 11, 1701–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, 2015
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We simulated Late Miocene (11-7 Million years ago) vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations: 280ppm CO2 and 450ppm CO2. We compared the simulated vegetation to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
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We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
X. Shi and G. Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Our work is to investigate to what degree the open water ice formation affects the ice and ocean properties.
Our results show a positive feedback among the Arctic sea ice, the AMOC, and the surface air temperature in the Arctic.
The sea ice transport affects the freshwater budget in regions of deep water formation.
A link between the climate of Northern Hemisphere continents and the lead closing rate during ice formation period is also shown by the model.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
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In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
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The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
P. R. Halloran, B. B. B. Booth, C. D. Jones, F. H. Lambert, D. J. McNeall, I. J. Totterdell, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 4497–4508, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4497-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4497-2015, 2015
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The oceans currently take up around a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human activity. While stored in the ocean, this CO2 is not causing global warming. Here we explore high latitude North Atlantic CO2 uptake across a set of climate model simulations, and find that the models show a peak in ocean CO2 uptake around the middle of the century after which time CO2 uptake begins to decline. We identify the causes of this long-term change and interannual variability in the models.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
A. Cauquoin, A. Landais, G. M. Raisbeck, J. Jouzel, L. Bazin, M. Kageyama, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, M. Werner, E. Bard, and ASTER Team
Clim. Past, 11, 355–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, 2015
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We present a new 10Be record at EDC between 269 and 355ka. Our 10Be-based accumulation rate is in good agreement with the one associated with the EDC3 timescale except for the warm MIS 9.3 optimum. This suggests that temperature reconstruction from water isotopes may be underestimated by 2.4K for the difference between the MIS 9.3 and present day. The CMIP5-PMIP3 models do not quantitatively reproduce changes in precipitation vs. temperature increase during glacial–interglacial transitions.
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
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Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
H. Kuehn, L. Lembke-Jene, R. Gersonde, O. Esper, F. Lamy, H. Arz, G. Kuhn, and R. Tiedemann
Clim. Past, 10, 2215–2236, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2215-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2215-2014, 2014
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Annually laminated sediments from the NE Bering Sea reveal a decadal-scale correlation to Greenland ice core records during termination I, suggesting an atmospheric teleconnection. Lamination occurrence is tightly coupled to Bølling-Allerød and Preboreal warm phases. Increases in export production, closely coupled to SST and sea ice changes, are hypothesized to be a main cause of deglacial anoxia, rather than changes in overturning/ventilation rates of mid-depth waters entering the Bering Sea.
V. Schourup-Kristensen, D. Sidorenko, D. A. Wolf-Gladrow, and C. Völker
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2769–2802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2769-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2769-2014, 2014
D. Barbi, G. Lohmann, K. Grosfeld, and M. Thoma
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2003–2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, 2014
N. V. Rokotyan, V. I. Zakharov, K. G. Gribanov, M. Schneider, F.-M. Bréon, J. Jouzel, R. Imasu, M. Werner, M. Butzin, C. Petri, T. Warneke, and J. Notholt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2567–2580, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, 2014
T. Goelles, K. Grosfeld, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1395–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1395-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1395-2014, 2014
K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, V. Bastrikov, J.-L. Bonne, F.-M. Breon, M. Butzin, O. Cattani, V. Masson-Delmotte, N. Rokotyan, M. Werner, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5943–5957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, 2014
M. Butzin, M. Werner, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, C. Frankenberg, K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, and V. I. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5853–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, 2014
A. Basu, M. G. Schultz, S. Schröder, L. Francois, X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, and T. Laepple
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1463–1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, 2013
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
C. Giry, T. Felis, M. Kölling, W. Wei, G. Lohmann, and S. Scheffers
Clim. Past, 9, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
G. Lohmann, A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 9, 89–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Pleistocene
Simulated ocean oxygenation during the interglacials MIS 5e and MIS 9e
Rapid communication: Nonlinear sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation across climate states
A stretched polar vortex increased mid-latitude climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum
Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling
Contrasting responses of summer precipitation to orbital forcing in Japan and China over the past 450 kyr
More is not always better: downscaling climate model outputs from 30 to 5-minute resolution has minimal impact on coherence with Late Quaternary proxies
Investigating similarities and differences of the penultimate and last glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model
Last Glacial Maximum climate and atmospheric circulation over the Australian region from climate models
Uncertainties originating from GCM downscaling and bias correction with application to the MIS-11c Greenland Ice Sheet
Surface mass balance and climate of the Last Glacial Maximum Northern Hemisphere ice sheets: simulations with CESM2.1
A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years
Atmosphere–cryosphere interactions during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) in the European Alps
Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka
On the importance of moisture conveyor belts from the tropical eastern Pacific for wetter conditions in the Atacama Desert during the mid-Pliocene
Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial
No changes in overall AMOC strength in interglacial PMIP4 time slices
The role of ice-sheet topography in the Alpine hydro-climate at glacial times
Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model
The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe
Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Simulating Marine Isotope Stage 7 with a coupled climate–ice sheet model
Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations
Hypersensitivity of glacial summer temperatures in Siberia
Distorted Pacific–North American teleconnection at the Last Glacial Maximum
Understanding the Australian Monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum with a multi-model ensemble
Effect of high dust amount on surface temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum: a modelling study using MIROC-ESM
The role of regional feedbacks in glacial inception on Baffin Island: the interaction of ice flow and meteorology
Quantifying the influence of the terrestrial biosphere on glacial–interglacial climate dynamics
Intra-interglacial climate variability: model simulations of Marine Isotope Stages 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15
A GCM comparison of Pleistocene super-interglacial periods in relation to Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Arctic Russia
Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene
Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years
Simulating last interglacial climate with NorESM: role of insolation and greenhouse gases in the timing of peak warmth
Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics
Assessing the impact of Laurentide Ice Sheet topography on glacial climate
Interdependence of the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glaciation: the role of atmospheric circulation
Different ocean states and transient characteristics in Last Glacial Maximum simulations and implications for deglaciation
Why could ice ages be unpredictable?
Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate
The last interglacial (Eemian) climate simulated by LOVECLIM and CCSM3
LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
Tropical vegetation response to Heinrich Event 1 as simulated with the UVic ESCM and CCSM3
Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model
A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum
Modelling snow accumulation on Greenland in Eemian, glacial inception, and modern climates in a GCM
Modelling large-scale ice-sheet–climate interactions following glacial inception
Sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate to Greenland Ice Sheet melting during the Last Interglacial
Bartholomé Duboc, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Babette Hoogakker, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 21, 1093–1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, 2025
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We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–115 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e (∼ 336–321 ka). The global ocean is overall less oxygenated compared to the preindustrial simulation. Large regions in the Mediterranean Sea are oxygen deprived in the Last Interglacial simulation, and to a lesser extent in the MIS 9e simulation, due to an intensification and expansion of the African monsoon and enhanced river runoff.
Gabriel M. Pontes, Pedro L. da Silva Dias, and Laurie Menviel
Clim. Past, 21, 1079–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025, 2025
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El Niño events are the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability. Understanding how El Niño activity is affected by different climate states is of great relevance to agriculture, water, ecosystem, and climate risk management. Through analysis of past and future climate simulations, we show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sensitivity to mean state changes is nonlinear and, to some extent, shaped by atmospheric CO2 levels.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, Heikki Seppä, Zhen Li, and Xingrui Li
Clim. Past, 21, 67–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-67-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-67-2025, 2025
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The upper and lower atmospheres interact. The polar regions, with high-speed, cyclonically rotating winds, provide a window through which upper winds affect surface weather and climate variability. By analysing climate model results, we found that ice sheets induced anomalous upward wave propagation and stretched the rotating winds towards North America, increasing the likelihood of cold-air outbreaks at the mid-latitudes. This accounts for the enhanced winter cooling at these latitudes.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Owen, Robin S. Smith, Oliver G. Pollard, Lachlan C. Astfalck, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2191–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, 2024
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Simulations of the last two glacial periods are run using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The results show that the initial conditions used in the simulations are the primary reason for the difference in simulated North American ice sheet volume between each period. Thus, the climate leading up to the glacial maxima and other factors, such as vegetation, are important contributors to the differences in the ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima.
Taiga Matsushita, Mariko Harada, Hiroaki Ueda, Takeshi Nakagawa, Yoshimi Kubota, Yoshiaki Suzuki, and Youichi Kamae
Clim. Past, 20, 2017–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2017-2024, 2024
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We present a climate simulation using version 2.3 of the Meteorological Research Institute's Coupled General Circulation Model (MRI-CGCM2.3) to examine the impact of insolation changes on East Asian summer monsoon variability over the past 450 kyr. We show that changes in summer insolation over East Asia led to distinct climatic responses in China and Japan, driven by altered atmospheric circulation due to the intensification of the North Pacific subtropical high and the North Pacific High.
Lucy Timbrell, James Blinkhorn, Margherita Colucci, Michela Leonardi, Manuel Chevalier, Matt Grove, Eleanor Scerri, and Andrea Manica
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-53, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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Scientists study past climate change using proxies (e.g. pollen) and models. Proxies offer detailed snapshots but are limited in number, while models provide broad coverage but at low resolution. Typically, models are downscaled to 30 arc-minutes, but it’s unclear if this is sufficient. We found that increasing models to 5 arc-minutes does not improve their coherence with climate reconstructed from pollen data. Optimal model resolution depends on research needs, balancing detail with error.
Aurélien Quiquet and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 20, 1365–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024, 2024
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In this work, we use the same experimental protocol to simulate the last two glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model. Major differences among the two terminations are that the ice sheets retreat earlier and the Atlantic oceanic circulation is more prone to collapse during the penultimate termination. However, for both terminations the pattern of ice retreat is similar, and this retreat is primarily explained by orbital forcing changes and greenhouse gas concentration changes.
Yanxuan Du, Josephine R. Brown, and J. M. Kale Sniderman
Clim. Past, 20, 393–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-393-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-393-2024, 2024
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This study provides insights into regional Australian climate variations (temperature, precipitation, wind, and atmospheric circulation) during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 kyr ago) and the interconnections between climate variables in different seasons from climate model simulations. Model results are evaluated and compared with available palaeoclimate proxy records. Results show model responses diverge widely in both the tropics and mid-latitudes in the Australian region.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
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An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
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To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Costanza Del Gobbo, Renato R. Colucci, Giovanni Monegato, Manja Žebre, and Filippo Giorgi
Clim. Past, 19, 1805–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1805-2023, 2023
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We studied atmosphere–cryosphere interaction during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Alpine region, using a high-resolution regional climate model. We analysed the climate south and north of the Alps, using a detailed map of the Alpine equilibrium line altitude (ELA) to study the mechanism that sustained the Alpine glaciers at 21 ka. The Genoa low and a mild Mediterranean Sea led to frequent snowfall in the southern Alps, thus preserving the glaciers and lowering the ELA.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
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It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
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In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Zhiyi Jiang, Chris Brierley, David Thornalley, and Sophie Sax
Clim. Past, 19, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, 2023
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This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. We show that there are no robust changes in the overall strength of the circulation. We also show that the circulation hardly plays a role in changes in the surface climate across the globe.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
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We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021
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In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice-sheet–climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events, and rapid warming at high latitudes is here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
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This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, 2021
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The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) critically depends on its mean state. We simulate the response of the AMOC to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations under different glacial boundary conditions. We find that a closed Bering Strait greatly increases the AMOC's sensitivity to freshwater hosing. Further, the shift from mono- to bistability strongly depends on the chosen boundary conditions, with weaker circulation states exhibiting more abrupt transitions.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Dipayan Choudhury, Axel Timmermann, Fabian Schloesser, Malte Heinemann, and David Pollard
Clim. Past, 16, 2183–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, 2020
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Our study is the first study to conduct transient simulations over MIS 7, using a 3-D coupled climate–ice sheet model with interactive ice sheets in both hemispheres. We find glacial inceptions to be more sensitive to orbital variations, whereas glacial terminations need the concerted action of both orbital and CO2 forcings. We highlight the issue of multiple equilibria and an instability due to stationary-wave–topography feedback that can trigger unrealistic North American ice sheet growth.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Robert Beyer, Mario Krapp, and Andrea Manica
Clim. Past, 16, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, 2020
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Even the most sophisticated global climate models are known to have significant biases in the way they simulate the climate system. Correcting model biases is therefore essential for creating realistic reconstructions of past climate that can be used, for example, to study long-term ecological dynamics. Here, we evaluated three widely used bias correction methods by means of a global dataset of empirical temperature and precipitation records from the last 125 000 years.
Pepijn Bakker, Irina Rogozhina, Ute Merkel, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, 2020
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Northeastern Siberia is currently known for its harsh cold climate, but remarkably it did not experience large-scale glaciation during the last ice age. We show that the region is also exceptional in climate models. As a result of subtle changes in model setup, climate models show a strong divergence in simulated glacial summer temperatures that is ultimately driven by changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport to northeastern Siberia.
Yongyun Hu, Yan Xia, Zhengyu Liu, Yuchen Wang, Zhengyao Lu, and Tao Wang
Clim. Past, 16, 199–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, 2020
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The paper shows, using climate simulations, that the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection was distorted or completely broken at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results suggest that ENSO would have little direct impact on North American climates at the LGM.
Mi Yan, Bin Wang, Jian Liu, Axing Zhu, Liang Ning, and Jian Cao
Clim. Past, 14, 2037–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, 2018
Rumi Ohgaito, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Toshihiko Takemura, Akinori Ito, Tomohiro Hajima, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 14, 1565–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, 2018
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The behaviour of dust in terms of climate can be investigated using past climate. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21000 years before present) is known to be dustier. We investigated the impact of plausible dust distribution on the climate of the LGM using an Earth system model and found that the higher dust load results in less cooling over the polar regions. The main finding is that radiative perturbation by the high dust loading does not necessarily cool the surface surrounding Antarctica.
Leah Birch, Timothy Cronin, and Eli Tziperman
Clim. Past, 14, 1441–1462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1441-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1441-2018, 2018
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We investigate the regional dynamics at the beginning of the last ice age, using a nested configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a simple ice flow model. We find that ice sheet height causes a negative feedback on continued ice growth by interacting with the atmospheric circulation, causing warming on Baffin Island, and inhibiting the initiation of the last ice age. We conclude that processes at larger scales are needed to overcome the regional warming effect.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Andy Ridgwell, Joy Singarayer, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 13, 1381–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, 2017
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We present the first model analysis using a fully coupled dynamic atmosphere–ocean–vegetation GCM over the last 120 kyr that quantifies the net effect of vegetation on climate. This analysis shows that over the whole period the biogeophysical effect (albedo, evapotranspiration) is dominant, and that the biogeochemical impacts may have a lower possible range than typically estimated. This emphasises the temporal reliance of the balance between biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects.
Rima Rachmayani, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 12, 677–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, 2016
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A set of 13 interglacial time slice experiments was carried out using a CCSM3-DGVM to study global climate variability between and within the Quaternary interglaciations of MIS 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15. Seasonal surface temperature anomalies can be explained by local insolation anomalies induced by the astronomical forcing in most regions and by GHG forcing at high latitudes and early Bruhnes interglacials. However, climate feedbacks may modify the surface temperature response in specific regions.
A. J. Coletti, R. M. DeConto, J. Brigham-Grette, and M. Melles
Clim. Past, 11, 979–989, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, 2015
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Evidence from Pleistocene sediments suggest that the Arctic's climate went through multiple sudden transitions, warming by 2-4 °C (compared to preindustrial times), and stayed warm for hundreds to thousands of years. A climate modelling study of these events suggests that the Arctic's climate and landscape drastically changed, transforming a cold and barren landscape as we know today to a warm, lush, evergreen and boreal forest landscape only seen in the modern midlatitudes.
P. A. Araya-Melo, M. Crucifix, and N. Bounceur
Clim. Past, 11, 45–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, 2015
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By using a statistical tool termed emulator, we study the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon during the the Pleistocene. The originality of the present work is to consider, as inputs, several elements of the climate forcing that have varied in the past, and then use the emulator as a method to quantify the link between forcing variability and climate variability. The methodology described here may naturally be applied to other regions of interest.
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
P.M. Langebroek and K. H. Nisancioglu
Clim. Past, 10, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, 2014
I. Suter, R. Zech, J. G. Anet, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 1183–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, 2014
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 10, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, 2014
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 9, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, 2013
M.-O. Brault, L. A. Mysak, H. D. Matthews, and C. T. Simmons
Clim. Past, 9, 1761–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, 2013
I. Nikolova, Q. Yin, A. Berger, U. K. Singh, and M. P. Karami
Clim. Past, 9, 1789–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1789-2013, 2013
K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa
Clim. Past, 9, 1697–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, 2013
D. Handiani, A. Paul, M. Prange, U. Merkel, L. Dupont, and X. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, 2013
T. Tharammal, A. Paul, U. Merkel, and D. Noone
Clim. Past, 9, 789–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-789-2013, 2013
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013
H. J. Punge, H. Gallée, M. Kageyama, and G. Krinner
Clim. Past, 8, 1801–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1801-2012, 2012
J. M. Gregory, O. J. H. Browne, A. J. Payne, J. K. Ridley, and I. C. Rutt
Clim. Past, 8, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, 2012
P. Bakker, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, and H. Renssen
Clim. Past, 8, 995–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, 2012
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Short summary
We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust...
