Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 22 Dec 2021
| 22 Dec 2021
Hydroclimatic variability of opposing Late Pleistocene climates in the Levant revealed by deep Dead Sea sediments
Yoav Ben Dor
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel
Geological Survey of Israel, 32 Yesha'ayahu Leibowitz, Jerusalem,
9692100, Israel
Francesco Marra
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research
Council of Italy (CNR-ISAC), Bologna, 40129, Italy
Moshe Armon
The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel
Yehouda Enzel
The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel
Achim Brauer
Section Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, GFZ German Research
Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam,
Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Markus Julius Schwab
Section Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, GFZ German Research
Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Efrat Morin
The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel
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Rashid Akbary, Eleonora Dallan, Paul C. Astagneau, Raul R. Wood, Francesco Marra, Manuela I. Brunner, and Marco Borga
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1079, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Heavy short rain can trigger flash floods and debris flows. In this study we evaluated how well climate models reproduce these events in Switzerland. We compared finer and coarser resolution models with high-quality hourly precipitation observations across small to large areas. The finer models better captured where short, intense precipitation occurs, but their errors changed with area size. Flood risk studies should therefore account for these scale-related errors.
Yair Rinat, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-972, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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In the coming decades Mediterranean floods are expected to change due to increased urbanization and climate change. We simulate floods under different conditions and show that future rainfall will likely reduce flood magnitudes, but increased urbanization will make them higher. Flood intensification is more pronounced at upstream sections and when soil moisture is high. As future flood trends may change between different regions further research is needed to cope with upcoming challenges.
Saran Aadhar, Efrat Morin, and Utkarsh Gupta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-339, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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River basins in India are often affected by flooding during the summer monsoon, putting millions of people and livelihoods at risk. Understanding the processes that cause floods is critical to minimizing flood risk. Our investigations show how rainfall (short and long-duration), surface water flow, and the specific location of the drainage area contribute to flood events in the Godavari River basin using observations and hydrological model data.
Guorong Ling, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, and Moshe Armon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6438, 2026
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This research examines how well storms that bring heavy rain to the Sahara can be predicted. Using satellite observations and ensemble weather forecasts, it shows that predictability varies by season and location, with an upper limit of about ten days. These insights can improve early flood warnings and support better planning for scarce water resources in desert regions.
Ellina Agayar, Moshe Armon, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5942, 2025
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This study examines the hydrometeorological features of the major floods of 2008, 2010, and 2020 in western Ukraine. All cases were linked to upper-level PV anomalies. We also conducted a climatological analysis of PV structure associated with 22 summer heavy precipitation cases (2000–2022), highlighting their key role in determining the location and intensity of flood-inducing rainfall events in the Carpathians.
Francesco Marra, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, Roberto Greco, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5055–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-5055-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-5055-2025, 2025
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We highlight an important conceptual difference between the duration used in intensity-duration thresholds and the duration used in the intensity-duration-frequency curves that has been overlooked by the landslide literature so far.
Ella Thomas, Petr Vohnicky, Marco Borga, Nadav Peleg, and Francesco Marra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4741, 2025
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Extreme rainfall is expected to grow in magnitude with increasing temperature. We assess whether very rare extremes increase with temperature faster than moderate extremes, and we test methods to include this effect into a model to predict future extremes called TENAX. We find that this dependence on temperature is typically observed but including it in the model without prior information on its magnitude may lead to disproportionately large uncertainty.
Nathalia Correa-Sánchez, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Giorgia Fosser, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, and Francesco Marra
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 2551–2561, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2551-2025, 2025
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We examined the power spectra of wind speed in three convection-permitting models in central Europe and found that these models have a better representation of wind variability characteristics than standard wind datasets like the New European Wind Atlas, due to different simulation approaches, providing more reliable extreme wind predictions.
Nathalia Correa-Sánchez, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, and Fracesco Marra
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-172, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for WES
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This research presents the first use of SMEV for wind extremes, extending it to wind energy applications. We use a categories framework combining climate, roughness, and topography for CPM evaluation. We find that model formulation drives inter-model uncertainties, rather than surface conditions. Also, there is a higher model agreement in winter (synoptic) and lower in summer (convective). CPM uncertainty analysis improves the reliability of extreme winds for design parameters.
Rajani Kumar Pradhan, Yannis Markonis, Francesco Marra, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Simon Michael Papalexiou, and Vincenzo Levizzani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 4929–4949, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4929-2025, 2025
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This study compared global satellite and reanalysis precipitation datasets to assess diurnal variability. We found that all datasets capture key diurnal precipitation patterns, with maximum precipitation in the afternoon over land and early morning over the ocean. However, there are differences in the exact timing and amount of precipitation. This suggests that it is better to use a combination of datasets for potential applications rather than relying on a single dataset.
Francesco Marra, Nadav Peleg, Elena Cristiano, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Federica Remondi, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2565–2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, 2025
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Climate change is escalating the risks related to hydro-meteorological extremes. This preface introduces a special issue originating from a European Geosciences Union (EGU) session. It highlights the challenges posed by these extremes, ranging from hazard assessment to mitigation strategies, and covers both water excess events like floods, landslides, and coastal hazards and water deficit events such as droughts and fire weather. The collection aims to advance understanding, improve resilience, and inform policy-making.
Joëlle C. Rieder, Franziska Aemisegger, Elad Dente, and Moshe Armon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1395–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1395-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1395-2025, 2025
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The Sahara was wetter in the past and may become wetter in the future. Lake remnants are evidence of the desert’s wetter past. If the Sahara gets wetter in the future, these lakes may serve as a water resource. However, it is unclear how these lakes get filled and how moisture is carried into the desert and converted into rain in the first place. Therefore, we examine processes currently leading to the filling of a dry lake in the Sahara, which can help assess future water availability.
Kevin Kenfack, Francesco Marra, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Lucie Angennes Djiotang Tchotchou, Alain Tchio Tamoffo, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1457–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, 2024
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The results of this study show that moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies and vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies were crucial mechanisms behind the anomalous October 2019 exceptional rainfall increase over western central Africa. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment and management in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change.
Ido Sirota, Rik Tjallingii, Sylvia Pinkerneil, Birgit Schroeder, Marlen Albert, Rebecca Kearney, Oliver Heiri, Simona Breu, and Achim Brauer
Biogeosciences, 21, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4317-2024, 2024
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Hypoxia has spread in Tiefer See (NE Germany) due to increased human activity. The onset of hypoxia indicated by varve preservation is dated to ~1920 at the lake’s depocenter, which responds faster and more severely to the reduction in oxygen level. The spread of hypoxic conditions is a gradual process that has lasted nearly 100 years, and the chemistry of the sediments shows that the depletion of oxygen in the lake started several decades before the onset of varve preservation.
Talia Rosin, Francesco Marra, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3549–3566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, 2024
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Knowledge of extreme precipitation probability at various spatial–temporal scales is crucial. We estimate extreme precipitation return levels at multiple scales (10 min–24 h, 0.25–500 km2) in the eastern Mediterranean using radar data. We show our estimates are comparable to those derived from averaged daily rain gauges. We then explore multi-scale extreme precipitation across coastal, mountainous, and desert regions.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
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This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Shai Abir, Hamish A. McGowan, Yonatan Shaked, Hezi Gildor, Efrat Morin, and Nadav G. Lensky
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024, 2024
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Understanding air–sea heat exchange is vital for studying ocean dynamics. Eddy covariance measurements over the Gulf of Eilat revealed a 3.22 m yr-1 evaporation rate, which is inconsistent with bulk formulae estimations in stable atmospheric conditions, requiring bulk formulae to be revisited in these environments. The surface fluxes have a net cooling effect on the gulf water on an annual mean (-79 W m-2), balanced by a strong exchange flux between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Eilat.
Marcel Ortler, Achim Brauer, Stefano C. Fabbri, Jean Nicolas Haas, Irka Hajdas, Kerstin Kowarik, Jochem Kueck, Hans Reschreiter, and Michael Strasser
Sci. Dril., 33, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-1-2024, 2024
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The lake drilling project at Lake Hallstatt (Austria) successfully cored 51 m of lake sediments. This was achieved through the novel drilling platform Hipercorig. A core-log seismic correlation was created for the first time of an inner Alpine lake of the Eastern Alps. The sediments cover over 12 000 years before present with 10 (up to 5.1 m thick) instantaneous deposits. Lake Hallstatt is located within an UNESCO World Heritage area which has a rich history of human salt mining.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
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We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Anna Beckett, Cecile Blanchet, Alexander Brauser, Rebecca Kearney, Celia Martin-Puertas, Ian Matthews, Konstantin Mittelbach, Adrian Palmer, Arne Ramisch, and Achim Brauer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 595–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-595-2024, 2024
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This paper focuses on volcanic ash (tephra) in European annually laminated (varve) lake records from the period 25 to 8 ka. Tephra enables the synchronisation of these lake records and their proxy reconstructions to absolute timescales. The data incorporate geochemical data from tephra layers across 19 varve lake records. We highlight the potential for synchronising multiple records using tephra layers across continental scales whilst supporting reproducibility through accessible data.
Paula A. Vignoni, Francisco E. Córdoba, Rik Tjallingii, Carla Santamans, Liliana C. Lupo, and Achim Brauer
Geochronology, 5, 333–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-333-2023, 2023
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Radiocarbon dating is a widely used tool to establish chronologies for sediment records. We show that modern aquatic plants in the Laguna del Peinado lake system (Altiplano–Puna Plateau) give overestimated ages due to reservoir effects from the input of old groundwater and volcanic CO2. Our results reveal a spatial variability in the modern reservoir effect within the lake basin, which has implications for radiocarbon-based chronologies in paleoclimate studies in this (and similar) regions.
Haggai Eyal, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, and Nadav G. Lensky
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 547–574, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-547-2023, 2023
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Extracting paleoenvironmets from sedimentologic and geomorphic records is a main goal in Earth sciences. We study a chain of processes connecting causative Mediterranean cyclones, coeval floods, storm waves generated by mesoscale funneled wind, and coastal gravel transport. This causes northward dispersion of gravel along the modern Dead Sea coast, which has also persisted since the late Pleistocene, resulting in beach berms and fan deltas always being deposited north of channel mouths.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
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We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
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Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
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Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Markus Czymzik, Rik Tjallingii, Birgit Plessen, Peter Feldens, Martin Theuerkauf, Matthias Moros, Markus J. Schwab, Carla K. M. Nantke, Silvia Pinkerneil, Achim Brauer, and Helge W. Arz
Clim. Past, 19, 233–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-233-2023, 2023
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Productivity increases in Lake Kälksjön sediments during the last 9600 years are likely driven by the progressive millennial-scale winter warming in northwestern Europe, following the increasing Northern Hemisphere winter insolation and decadal to centennial periods of a more positive NAO polarity. Strengthened productivity variability since ∼5450 cal yr BP is hypothesized to reflect a reinforcement of NAO-like atmospheric circulation.
Bernhard Diekmann, Werner Stackebrandt, Roland Weiße, Margot Böse, Udo Rothe, Boris Biskaborn, and Achim Brauer
DEUQUA Spec. Pub., 4, 5–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-5-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-5-2022, 2022
Achim Brauer, Ingo Heinrich, Markus J. Schwab, Birgit Plessen, Brian Brademann, Matthias Köppl, Sylvia Pinkerneil, Daniel Balanzategui, Gerhard Helle, and Theresa Blume
DEUQUA Spec. Pub., 4, 41–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-41-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-41-2022, 2022
Achim Brauer and Markus J. Schwab
DEUQUA Spec. Pub., 4, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/deuquasp-4-1-2022, 2022
Sella Nevo, Efrat Morin, Adi Gerzi Rosenthal, Asher Metzger, Chen Barshai, Dana Weitzner, Dafi Voloshin, Frederik Kratzert, Gal Elidan, Gideon Dror, Gregory Begelman, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Hila Noga, Ira Shavitt, Liora Yuklea, Moriah Royz, Niv Giladi, Nofar Peled Levi, Ofir Reich, Oren Gilon, Ronnie Maor, Shahar Timnat, Tal Shechter, Vladimir Anisimov, Yotam Gigi, Yuval Levin, Zach Moshe, Zvika Ben-Haim, Avinatan Hassidim, and Yossi Matias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4013–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4013-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4013-2022, 2022
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Early flood warnings are one of the most effective tools to save lives and goods. Machine learning (ML) models can improve flood prediction accuracy but their use in operational frameworks is limited. The paper presents a flood warning system, operational in India and Bangladesh, that uses ML models for forecasting river stage and flood inundation maps and discusses the models' performances. In 2021, more than 100 million flood alerts were sent to people near rivers over an area of 470 000 km2.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, 2022
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We present a new method for quantifying the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall using radar data, and we use it to examine coastal and orographic effects on extremes. We identify three regimes, directly related to precipitation physical processes, which respond differently to these forcings. The methods and results are of interest for researchers and practitioners using radar for the analysis of extremes, risk managers, water resources managers, and climate change impact studies.
Cécile L. Blanchet, Rik Tjallingii, Anja M. Schleicher, Stefan Schouten, Martin Frank, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 17, 1025–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1025-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1025-2021, 2021
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The Mediterranean Sea turned repeatedly into an oxygen-deprived basin during the geological past, as evidenced by distinct sediment layers called sapropels. We use here records of the last sapropel S1 retrieved in front of the Nile River to explore the relationships between riverine input and seawater oxygenation. We decipher the seasonal cycle of fluvial input and seawater chemistry as well as the decisive influence of primary productivity on deoxygenation at millennial timescales.
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Short summary
Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of...
