Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 17 Jun 2021
| 17 Jun 2021
The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Francesco S. R. Pausata
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre ESCER (Étude et la Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle
Régionale) and GEOTOP (Research Center on the dynamics of the Earth
System), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec
in Montreal, Montreal, Canada
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, and Centre of
Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, and Bolin Centre
for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
Jayoung Yun
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Chetankumar A. Jalihal
Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of
Science, Bengaluru, India
DST-Centre of Excellence in Climate Change, Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, India
Massimo A. Bollasina
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Thomas M. Marchitto
Department of Geological Sciences and Institute of Arctic and
Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Related authors
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-272, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Around 6,000 years ago, paleoclimate reconstructions suggest a greening of the Sahara, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at mid to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. In particular, climate simulations show significant modifications in the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic, affecting climate in North America and Europe.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Benjamin Ward, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Nicola Maher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 975–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the largest ensemble of a climate model currently available, the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), we investigated the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. By selecting three eruptions with different aerosol distributions, we found that the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the main driver of the ENSO response, while other mechanisms commonly invoked seem less important in our model.
Samuel Dandoy, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Suzana J. Camargo, René Laprise, Katja Winger, and Kerry Emanuel
Clim. Past, 17, 675–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-675-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes the impacts of changing vegetation and atmospheric dust concentrations over an area that is currently desert (the Sahara) to investigate their impacts on tropical cyclone activity during a warm climate state, the mid-Holocene. Our results suggest a significant change in Atlantic TC frequency, intensity and seasonality when considering the effects of a warmer climate in a greener world. They also highlight the importance of considering these factors in future climate studies.
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
F. S. R. Pausata, M. Gaetani, G. Messori, S. Kloster, and F. J. Dentener
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1725–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
our study suggests that future aerosol abatement may be the primary driver of increased blocking events over the western Mediterranean. This modification of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector leads to more stagnant weather conditions that favour air pollutant accumulation especially in the western Mediterranean sector. Changes in atmospheric circulation should therefore be included in future air pollution mitigation assessments.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1042, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models at forecasting weather extremes. Here, we evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models, and that the choice of best model mainly depends on region and type of extreme.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-272, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Around 6,000 years ago, paleoclimate reconstructions suggest a greening of the Sahara, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at mid to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. In particular, climate simulations show significant modifications in the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic, affecting climate in North America and Europe.
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-45, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Notwithstanding this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. Here, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells, and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
Zhen Liu, Massimo Bollasina, and Laura Wilcox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3136, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model simulated spatiotemporal variability of the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-38, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker, but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another, older storm that traveled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, and Robert Vautard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2643, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into weather extreme events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analyzed four distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-316, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Axel Kleidon, Gabriele Messori, Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 241–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, 2023
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Benjamin Ward, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Nicola Maher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 975–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the largest ensemble of a climate model currently available, the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), we investigated the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. By selecting three eruptions with different aerosol distributions, we found that the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the main driver of the ENSO response, while other mechanisms commonly invoked seem less important in our model.
Lixia Zhang, Laura J. Wilcox, Nick J. Dunstone, David J. Paynter, Shuai Hu, Massimo Bollasina, Donghuan Li, Jonathan K. P. Shonk, and Liwei Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7499–7514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The projected frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events and global warming increases significantly due to weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol further increases the frequency of circulation patterns, but haze events are less dangerous. We revealed competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to haze intensity and their influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns.
Samuel Dandoy, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Suzana J. Camargo, René Laprise, Katja Winger, and Kerry Emanuel
Clim. Past, 17, 675–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-675-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes the impacts of changing vegetation and atmospheric dust concentrations over an area that is currently desert (the Sahara) to investigate their impacts on tropical cyclone activity during a warm climate state, the mid-Holocene. Our results suggest a significant change in Atlantic TC frequency, intensity and seasonality when considering the effects of a warmer climate in a greener world. They also highlight the importance of considering these factors in future climate studies.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Zhen Liu, Yi Ming, Chun Zhao, Ngar Cheung Lau, Jianping Guo, Massimo Bollasina, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 223–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
OH and HO2 radicals are important trace constituents of the atmosphere that are closely coupled via several types of reaction. This paper describes a new laboratory method to simultaneously determine OH kinetics and HO2 yields from chemical processes. The instrument also provides some time resolution on HO2 detection allowing one to separate HO2 produced from the target reaction from HO2 arising from secondary chemistry. Examples of applications are presented.
Alcide Zhao, Massimo A. Bollasina, Monica Crippa, and David S. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14517–14533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions of aerosols over the recent past have been regulated largely by two policy-relevant drivers: energy-use growth and technology advances. These generate large and competing impacts on global radiation balance and climate, particularly over Asia, Europe, and the Arctic. This may help better assess and interpret future climate projections, and hence inform future climate change impact reduction strategies. Yet, it is pressing to better constrain various uncertainties related to aerosols.
Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 381–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-381-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-381-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Neural networks are a technique that is widely used to predict the time evolution of physical systems. For this the past evolution of the system is shown to the neural network – it is
trained– and then can be used to predict the evolution in the future. We show some limitations in this approach for certain systems that are important to consider when using neural networks for climate- and weather-related applications.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Laura J. Wilcox, Nick Dunstone, Anna Lewinschal, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, and Eleanor J. Highwood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9081–9095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased rapidly since 1980. In winter, this has resulted in warming over China and cooling over India. Using models of different levels of complexity, we show that Asian-aerosol-induced heating anomalies in the western and northern North Pacific establish a circulation pattern that causes cooling in North America and Europe. This connection makes these regions potentially sensitive to any reductions of Asian aerosol emissions in the near future.
Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2797–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Currently, weather forecasts are mainly produced by using computer models based on physical equations. It is an appealing idea to use neural networks and “deep learning” for weather forecasting instead. We successfully test the possibility of using deep learning for weather forecasting by considering climate models as simplified versions of reality. Our work therefore is a step towards potentially using deep learning to replace or accompany current weather forecasting models.
Chetankumar Jalihal, Joyce Helena Catharina Bosmans, Jayaraman Srinivasan, and Arindam Chakraborty
Clim. Past, 15, 449–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Insolation is thought to drive monsoons on orbital timescales. We find that insolation can be a trigger for changes in precipitation, but surface energy and vertical stability play an important role too. These feedbacks are found to be dominant over oceans and can even counter the insolation forcing, thus leading to a land–sea differential response in precipitation.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Pascal Yiou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We study the dynamical properties of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation by analysing the sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency field over the period 1948–2013. The metrics are linked to the predictability and the persistence of the atmospheric flows. We study the dependence on the seasonal cycle and the fields corresponding to maxima and minima of the dynamical indicators.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
F. S. R. Pausata, M. Gaetani, G. Messori, S. Kloster, and F. J. Dentener
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1725–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
our study suggests that future aerosol abatement may be the primary driver of increased blocking events over the western Mediterranean. This modification of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector leads to more stagnant weather conditions that favour air pollutant accumulation especially in the western Mediterranean sector. Changes in atmospheric circulation should therefore be included in future air pollution mitigation assessments.
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Holocene
Simulating dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene Green Sahara period
Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate
Contribution of lakes in sustaining the Sahara greening during the mid-Holocene
Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions
Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project
CHELSA-TraCE21k – high-resolution (1 km) downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the Last Glacial Maximum
Investigating hydroclimatic impacts of the 168–158 BCE volcanic quartet and their relevance to the Nile River basin and Egyptian history
Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)
Mid-Holocene climate of the Tibetan Plateau and hydroclimate in three major river basins based on high-resolution regional climate simulations
Comparison of the green-to-desert Sahara transitions between the Holocene and the last interglacial
Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode
Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa
Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY
The long-standing dilemma of European summer temperatures at the mid-Holocene and other considerations on learning from the past for the future using a regional climate model
Mid-Holocene monsoons in South and Southeast Asia: dynamically downscaled simulations and the influence of the Green Sahara
Impact of dust in PMIP-CMIP6 mid-Holocene simulations with the IPSL model
Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data
Water isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESM
Effects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman Empire
Strengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation
Physical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: results from TraCE-21ka simulations
Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations
Abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulation
Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene
Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions
Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene – an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations
Modeling precipitation δ18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales
Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations
Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene
The link between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle
Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Reexamining the barrier effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoon
Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations
Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia
A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum
Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3
Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity
The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka
Using data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP
Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison
The East Asian Summer Monsoon at mid-Holocene: results from PMIP3 simulations
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Yibo Kang and Haijun Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the climate difference between the mid-Holocene (MH) and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate difference. We think the insignificant difference in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between the MH and PI periods has resulted from the competing effects of the ORBs and the GHGs on the climate.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Michael P. Nobis, Signe Normand, Catherine H. Graham, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 19, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 18, 2401–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the mid-Holocene (MH; a period with warmer summers than today) will help us understand expected future changes. This study analyses the hydroclimates over the headwater regions of three major rivers originating on the TP using dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Model–data comparisons show that the dynamic downscaling significantly improves both the present-day and MH regional climate simulations of the TP.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
W. Zheng, B. Wu, J. He, and Y. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-453-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-453-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Adler, R., Sapiano, M., Huffman, G., Wang, J.-J., Gu, G., Bolvin, D., Chiu,
L., Schneider, U., Becker, A., Nelkin, E., Xie, P., Ferraro, R., and Shin,
D.-B.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Analysis
(New Version 2.3) and a Review of 2017 Global Precipitation, Atmosphere-Basel, 9, 138, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138, 2018.
Albani, S. and Mahowald, N. M.: Paleodust Insights into Dust Impacts on
Climate, J. Climate, 32, 7897–7913,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0742.1, 2019.
Albani, S., Mahowald, N. M., Perry, A. T., Scanza, R. A., Zender, C. S.,
Heavens, N. G., Maggi, V., Kok, J. F., and Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: Improved
dust representation in the Community Atmosphere Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth
Syst., 6, 541–570, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000279, 2014.
Albani, S., Mahowald, N. M., Winckler, G., Anderson, R. F., Bradtmiller, L. I., Delmonte, B., François, R., Goman, M., Heavens, N. G., Hesse, P. P., Hovan, S. A., Kang, S. G., Kohfeld, K. E., Lu, H., Maggi, V., Mason, J. A., Mayewski, P. A., McGee, D., Miao, X., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Perry, A. T., Pourmand, A., Roberts, H. M., Rosenbloom, N., Stevens, T., and Sun, J.: Twelve thousand years of dust: the Holocene global dust cycle constrained by natural archives, Clim. Past, 11, 869–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, 2015.
Anand, P., Kroon, D., Singh, A. D., Ganeshram, R. S., Ganssen, G., and
Elderfield, H.: Coupled sea surface temperature-seawater δ18O
reconstructions in the Arabian Sea at the millennial scale for the last 35 ka, Paleoceanography, 23, PA4207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007PA001564, 2008.
Arbuszewski, J. A., deMenocal, P. B., Cléroux, C., Bradtmiller, L., and
Mix, A.: Meridional shifts of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone
since the Last Glacial Maximum, Nat. Geosci., 6, 959–962,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1961, 2013.
Ashok, K., Guan, Z., and Yamagata, T.: Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on
the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 28, 4499–4502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013294, 2001.
Banakar, V. K., Mahesh, B. S., Burr, G., and Chodankar, A. R.: Climatology of
the Eastern Arabian Sea during the last glacial Cycle reconstructed from
paired measurement of foraminiferal δ18 O and
Biasutti, M.: Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 118, 1613–1623, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50206, 2013.
Bird, B. W., Polisar, P. J., Lei, Y., Thompson, L. G., Yao, T., Finney, B.
P., Bain, D. J., Pompeani, D. P., and Steinman, B. A.: A Tibetan lake
sediment record of Holocene Indian summer monsoon variability, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 399, 92–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.05.017, 2014.
Böll, A., Schulz, H., Munz, P., Rixen, T., Gaye, B., and Emeis, K.-C.:
Contrasting sea surface temperature of summer and winter monsoon variability
in the northern Arabian Sea over the last 25 ka, Palaeogeogr.
Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 426, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PALAEO.2015.02.036,
2015.
Dahl, K. A. and Oppo, D. W.: Sea surface temperature pattern reconstructions in the Arabian Sea,
Paleoceanography, 21, PA1014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005PA001162, 2006.
Dallmeyer, A., Claussen, M., Wang, Y., and Herzschuh, U.: Spatial variability
of Holocene changes in the annual precipitation pattern: a model-data
synthesis for the Asian monsoon region, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2919–2936,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1550-6, 2013.
deMenocal, P., Ortiz, J., Guilderson, T., Adkins, J., Sarnthein, M., Baker,
L., and Yarusinsky, M.: Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid
Period:, Quat. Sci. Rev., 19, 347–361,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00081-5, 2000.
Deotare, B. C., Kajale, M. D., Rajaguru, S. N., Kusumgar, S., Jull, A. J. T.,
and Donahue, J. D.: Palaeoenvironmental history of Bap-Malar and Kanod
playas of western Rajasthan, Thar desert, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 113,
403–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02716734, 2004.
Devaraju, N., Bala, G., and Modak, A.: Effects of large-scale deforestation
on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects., P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3257–3262, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1423439112,
2015.
Dykoski, C. A., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Yuan, D., Cai, Y., Zhang, M.,
Lin, Y., Qing, J., An, Z., and Revenaugh, J.: A high-resolution,
absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave,
China, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 233, 71–86,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2005.01.036, 2005.
Egerer, S., Claussen, M., and Reick, C.: Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene, Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018.
Evan, A. T., Flamant, C., Gaetani, M., and Guichard, F.: The past, present
and future of African dust, Nature, 531, 493–495,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17149, 2016.
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S. J., Mudelsee, M., Neff, U., Kramers, J., Mangini,
A., and Matter, A.: Holocene forcing of the Indian monsoon recorded in a
stalagmite from southern Oman, Science, 300, 1737–1739,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1083130, 2003.
Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Zhang, Q., Flamant, C., and Pausata, F. S. R.:
Understanding the mechanisms behind the northward extension of the West
African Monsoon during the mid-Holocene, J. Climate, 30, 7621–7642,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0299.1, 2017.
Gaye, B., Böll, A., Segschneider, J., Burdanowitz, N., Emeis, K.-C., Ramaswamy, V., Lahajnar, N., Lückge, A., and Rixen, T.: Glacial–interglacial changes and Holocene variations in Arabian Sea denitrification, Biogeosciences, 15, 507–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-507-2018, 2018.
Gebregiorgis, D., Hathorne, E. C., Sijinkumar, A. V., Nath, B. N.,
Nürnberg, D., and Frank, M.: South Asian summer monsoon variability
during the last ∼54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity
and river runoff proxies, Quat. Sci. Rev., 138, 6–15,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2016.02.012, 2016.
Giannini, A. and Kaplan, A.: The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in
Sahel drought and recovery, Clim. Change, 152, 449–466,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9, 2019.
Gill, E. C., Rajagopalan, B., and Molnar, P. H.: An assessment of the mean
annual precipitation needed to sustain Lake Sambhar in Rajasthan, India,
during mid-Holocene time, The Holocene, 25, 1923–1934,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683615596817, 2015.
Gill, E. C., Rajagopalan, B., Molnar, P., and Marchitto, T. M.:
Reduced-dimension reconstruction of the equatorial Pacific SST and zonal
wind fields over the past 10,000 years using
Gill, E. C., Rajagopalan, B., Molnar, P. H., Kushnir, Y., and Marchitto, T.
M.: Reconstruction of Indian summer monsoon winds and precipitation over the
past 10,000 years using equatorial pacific SST proxy records,
Paleoceanography, 32, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016PA002971, 2017.
Govil, P. and Naidu, P. D.: Evaporation-precipitation changes in the eastern
Arabian Sea for the last 68 ka: Implications on monsoon variability,
Paleoceanography, 25, PA1210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001687, 2010.
Griffiths, M. L., Johnson, K. R., Pausata, F. S. R., White, J. C.,
Henderson, G. M., Wood, C. T., Yang, H., Ersek, V., Conrad, C., and Sekhon,
N.: End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in
mainland Southeast Asia, Nat. Commun., 11, 4204,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17927-6, 2020.
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P., and Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU TS
monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset, Sci. Data,
7, 109, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3, 2020.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Brewer, S., Prentice, I. C., Boyd, M.,
Hessler, I., Holmgren, K., Izumi, K., and Willis, K.: Climate model
benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates, Clim. Dynam., 43,
671–688, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6, 2014.
Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Ştefanescu, S., Yang, S.,
Wang, X., Wyser, K., Dutra, E., Baldasano, J. M., Bintanja, R., Bougeault,
P., Caballero, R., Ekman, A. M. L., Christensen, J. H., Van Den Hurk, B.,
Jimenez, P., Jones, C., Kållberg, P., Koenigk, T., McGrath, R., Miranda,
P., Van Noije, T., Palmer, T., Parodi, J. A., Schmith, T., Selten, F.,
Storelvmo, T., Sterl, A., Tapamo, H., Vancoppenolle, M., Viterbo, P., and
Willén, U.: EC-Earth: A seamless Earth-system prediction approach in
action, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1357–1363,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1, 2010.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková,
M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hess, M., Koepke, P., and Schult, I.: Optical Properties of Aerosols and
Clouds: The Software Package OPAC, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79,
831–844, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0831:OPOAAC>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Hopcroft, P. O. and Valdes, P. J.: On the Role of Dust-Climate Feedbacks
During the Mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2018GL080483,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080483, 2019.
Huang, X., Zhou, T., Dai, A., Li, H., Li, C., Chen, X., Lu, J., Von storch,
J.-S., and Wu, B.: South Asian summer monsoon projections constrained by the
interdecadal Pacific oscillation, Sci. Adv., 6, eaay6546,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay6546, 2020.
Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Bolvin, D. T., and Nelkin, E. J.: The TRMM
Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), in Satellite Rainfall
Applications for Surface Hydrology, Springer Netherlands,
Dordrecht, pp. 3–22, 2010.
Huguet, C., Kim, J.-H., Sinninghe Damsté, J. S., and Schouten, S.:
Reconstruction of sea surface temperature variations in the Arabian Sea over
the last 23 kyr using organic proxies (TEX86 and U37
Huo, Y. and Peltier, W. R.: Dynamically Downscaled Climate Change
Projections for the South Asian Monsoon: Mean and Extreme Precipitation
Changes and Physics Parameterization Impacts, J. Climate, 33, 2311–2331,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0268.1, 2020.
Jalihal, C., Srinivasan, J., and Chakraborty, A.: Modulation of Indian
monsoon by water vapor and cloud feedback over the past 22,000 years, Nat.
Commun., 10, 5701, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13754-6, 2019a.
Jalihal, C., Bosmans, J. H. C., Srinivasan, J., and Chakraborty, A.: The response of tropical precipitation to Earth's precession: the role of energy fluxes and vertical stability, Clim. Past, 15, 449–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019, 2019b.
Kuhnert, H., Kuhlmann, H., Mohtadi, M., Meggers, H., Baumann, K.-H., and
Pätzold, J.: Holocene tropical western Indian Ocean sea surface
temperatures in covariation with climatic changes in the Indonesian region,
Paleoceanography, 29, 423–437, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013PA002555, 2014.
Lau, K.-M.: East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Climate
Teleconnection, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. Ser. II, 70, 211–242,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.70.1B_211, 1992.
Lau, K. M., Kim, K. M., Sud, Y. C., and Walker, G. K.: A GCM study of the response of the atmospheric water cycle of West Africa and the Atlantic to Saharan dust radiative forcing, Ann. Geophys., 27, 4023–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-4023-2009, 2009.
Lauterbach, S., Andersen, N., Wang, Y. V., Blanz, T., Larsen, T., and
Schneider, R. R.: An ∼130 kyr Record of Surface Water
Temperature and δ18O From the Northern Bay of Bengal:
Investigating the Linkage Between Heinrich Events and Weak Monsoon Intervals
in Asia, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatology, 35, e2019PA003646, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003646,
2020.
Lézine, A.-M., Hély, C., Grenier, C., Braconnot, P., and Krinner, G.:
Sahara and Sahel vulnerability to climate changes, lessons from Holocene
hydrological data, Quat. Sci. Rev., 30, 3001–3012,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.07.006, 2011.
Li, Z., Shi, X., Chen, M.-T., Wang, H., Liu, S., Xu, J., Long, H., Troa, R.
A., Zuraida, R., and Triarso, E.: Late Quaternary fingerprints of precession
and sea level variation over the past 35 kyr as revealed by sea surface
temperature and upwelling records from the Indian Ocean near southernmost
Sumatra, Quat. Int., 425, 282–291, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUAINT.2016.07.013, 2016.
Liu, Z., Harrison, S. P., Kutzbach, J., and Otto-Bliesner, B.: Global
monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback, Clim. Dynam., 22,
157–182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0372-y, 2004.
Lückge, A., Mohtadi, M., Rühlemann, C., Scheeder, G., Vink, A.,
Reinhardt, L., and Wiedicke, M.: Monsoon versus ocean circulation controls on
paleoenvironmental conditions off southern Sumatra during the past 300,000
years, Paleoceanography, 24, PA1208, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001627, 2009.
McGee, D., deMenocal, P. B., Winckler, G., Stuut, J. B. W., and Bradtmiller,
L. I.: The magnitude, timing and abruptness of changes in North African dust
deposition over the last 20,000 yr, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 371–372,
163–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.03.054, 2013.
Messori, G., Gaetani, M., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Q., and Pausata, F. S. R.: The
water cycle of the mid-Holocene West African monsoon: The role of vegetation
and dust emission changes, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1927–1939,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5924, 2019.
Mishra, S. K., Sahany, S., Salunke, P., Kang, I.-S., and Jain, S.: Fidelity
of CMIP5 multi-model mean in assessing Indian monsoon simulations, npj Clim.
Atmos. Sci., 1, 39, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0049-1, 2018.
Mohtadi, M., Steinke, S., Lückge, A., Groeneveld, J., and Hathorne, E.
C.: Glacial to Holocene surface hydrography of the tropical eastern Indian
Ocean, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 292, 89–97,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2010.01.024, 2010.
Muschitiello, F., Zhang, Q., Sundqvist, H. S., Davies, F. J., and Renssen,
H.: Arctic climate response to the termination of the African Humid Period,
Quat. Sci. Rev., 125, 91–97, 2015.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Capron, E., Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Fischer, H., Goelzer, H., Govin, A., Haywood, A., Joos, F., LeGrande, A. N., Lipscomb, W. H., Lohmann, G., Mahowald, N., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Pausata, F. S. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Phipps, S. J., Renssen, H., and Zhang, Q.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017.
Pausata, F. S. R., Messori, G., and Zhang, Q.: Impacts of dust reduction on
the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara
period, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 434, 298–307,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.049, 2016.
Pausata, F. S. R., Zhang, Q., Muschitiello, F., Lu, Z., Chafik, L.,
Niedermeyer, E. M., Stager, J. C., Cobb, K. M., and Liu, Z.: Greening of the
Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene, Nat. Commun., 8, 16020,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16020, 2017a.
Pausata, F. S. R., Emanuel, K. A., Chiacchio, M., Diro, G. T., Zhang, Q.,
Sushama, L., Stager, J. C., and Donnelly, J. P.: Tropical cyclone activity
enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African
Humid Period, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 6221–6226,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619111114, 2017b.
Pausata, F. S. R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Berg, A., Maia de Souza, D.,
Sage, R. F., and deMenocal, P. B.: The Greening of the Sahara: Past Changes
and Future Implications, One Earth, 2, 235–250,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.002, 2020.
Piao, J., Chen, W., Wang, L., Pausata, F. S. R., and Zhang, Q.: Northward
extension of the East Asian summer monsoon during the mid-Holocene, Glob.
Planet. Change, 184, 103046, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2019.103046, 2020.
Prasad, S., Kusumgar, S., and Gupta, S. K.: A mid to late Holocene record of
palaeoclimatic changes from Nal Sarovar: a palaeodesert margin lake in
western India, J. Quat. Sci., 12, 153–159,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(199703/04)12:2<153::AID-JQS300>3.0.CO;2-X, 1997.
Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Jolly, D., and Guiot, J.: The climate and
biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and
pollen-based reconstructions, Quat. Sci. Rev., 17, 659–668,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X, 1998.
Rashid, H., Flower, B. P., Poore, R. Z., and Quinn, T. M.: A ∼25 ka Indian Ocean monsoon variability record from the Andaman Sea, Quat.
Sci. Rev., 26, 2586–2597, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2007.07.002,
2007.
Raza, T., Ahmad, S. M., Steinke, S., Raza, W., Lone, M. A., Beja, S. K., and
Suseela, G.: Glacial to Holocene changes in sea surface temperature and
seawater δ18O in the northern Indian Ocean, Palaeogeogr.
Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 485, 697–705,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PALAEO.2017.07.026, 2017.
Rostek, F., Bard, E., Beaufort, L., Sonzogni, C., and Ganssen, G.: Sea
surface temperature and productivity records for the past 240 kyr in the
Arabian Sea, Deep Sea Res. Part II Top. Stud. Oceanogr., 44,
1461–1480, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(97)00008-8, 1997.
Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., and Yamagata, T.: A
dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360–363,
https://doi.org/10.1038/43854, 1999.
Saraswat, R., Lea, D. W., Nigam, R., Mackensen, A., and Naik, D. K.:
Deglaciation in the tropical Indian Ocean driven by interplay between the
regional monsoon and global teleconnections, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett.,
375, 166–175, 2013.
Schulte, S. and Müller, P.: Variations of sea surface temperature and
primary productivity during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the
northeastern Arabian Sea, Geo-Mar. Lett., 21, 168–175,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s003670100080, 2001.
Shi, Z., Xie, X., Li, X., Yang, L., Xie, X., Lei, J., Sha, Y., and Liu, X.: Snow-darkening versus direct radiative effects of mineral dust aerosol on the Indian summer monsoon onset: role of temperature change over dust sources, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1605–1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1605-2019, 2019.
Sonzogni, C., Bard, E., and Rostek, F.: Tropical sea-surface temperatures
during the last glacial period: A view based on alkenones in Indian Ocean
sediments, Quat. Sci. Rev., 17, 1185–1201,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(97)00099-1, 1998.
Sterl, A., Bintanja, R., Brodeau, L., Gleeson, E., Koenigk, T., Schmith, T.,
Semmler, T., Severijns, C., Wyser, K., and Yang, S.: A look at the ocean in
the EC-Earth climate model, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2631–2657,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1239-2, 2012.
Sukumar, R., Ramesh, R., Pant, R. K., and Rajagopalan, G.: A δ13C
record of late Quaternary climate change from tropical peats in southern
India, Nature, 364, 703–706, https://doi.org/10.1038/364703a0, 1993.
Sun, W., Wang, B., Zhang, Q., Pausata, F. S. R., Chen, D., Lu, G., Yan, M.,
Ning, L., and Liu, J.: Northern Hemisphere Land Monsoon Precipitation
Increased by the Green Sahara During Middle Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
46, 9870–9879, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082116, 2019.
Swann, A. L. S., Fung, I. Y., and Chiang, J. C. H.: Mid-latitude
afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation., P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 712–716, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116706108,
2012.
Swann, A. L. S., Fung, I. Y., Liu, Y., and Chiang, J. C. H.: Remote
Vegetation Feedbacks and the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara, J. Climate, 27,
4857–4870, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00690.1, 2014.
Swapna, P., Krishnan, R., Sandeep, N., Prajeesh, A. G., Ayantika, D. C.,
Manmeet, S., and Vellore, R.: Long-Term Climate Simulations Using the IITM
Earth System Model (IITM-ESMv2) With Focus on the South Asian Monsoon, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 1127–1149, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001262, 2018.
Tarasov, P. E., Webb III, T., Andreev, A. A., Afanas'eva, N. B., Berezina,
N. A., Bezusko, L. G., Blyakharchuk, T. A., Bolikhovskaya, N. S., Cheddadi,
R., Chernavskaya, M. M., Chernova, G. M., Dorofeyuk, N. I., Dirksen, V. G.,
Elina, G. A., Filimonova, L. V., Glebov, F. Z., Guiot, J., Gunova, V. S.,
Harrison, S. P., Jolly, D., Khomutova, V. I., Kvavadze, E. V., Osipova, I.
M., Panova, N. K., Prentice, I. C., Saarse, L., Sevastyanov, D. V., Volkova,
V. S., and Zernitskaya, V. P.: Present-day and mid-Holocene biomes
reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data from the former Soviet
Union and Mongolia, J. Biogeogr., 25, 1029–1053,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.1998.00236.x, 1998.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: A Summary of the CMIP5
Experiment Design, available at:
https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/ (last access: 1 June 2021), 2009.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Tegen, I., Hollrig, P., Chin, M., Fung, I., Jacob, D., and Penner, J.:
Contribution of different aerosol species to the global aerosol extinction
optical thickness: Estimates from model results, J. Geophys. Res., 102,
23895, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01864, 1997.
Texier, D., de Noblet, N., and Braconnot, P.: Sensitivity of the African and
Asian Monsoons to Mid-Holocene Insolation and Data-Inferred Surface Changes,
J. Climate, 13, 164–181, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0164:SOTAAA>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Thompson, A. J., Skinner, C. B., Poulsen, C. J., and Zhu, J.: Modulation of
Mid-Holocene African Rainfall by Dust Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3917–3926, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081225, 2019.
Thompson, L. G., Yao, T., Davis, M. E., Henderson, K. A., Mosley-Thompson,
E., Lin, P. N., Beer, J., Synal, H. A., Cole-Dai, J., and Bolzan, J. F.:
Tropical climate instability: The last glacial cycle from a Qinghai-Tibetan
ice core, Science, 276, 1821–1825,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.276.5320.1821, 1997.
Tierney, J. E., Pausata, F. S. R., and De Menocal, P. B.: Rainfall regimes of
the Green Sahara, Sci. Adv., 3, e1601503, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601503, 2017.
Timmermann, A., Sachs, J., and Timm, O. E.: Assessing divergent SST behavior
during the last 21 ka derived from alkenones and G. ruber-
Van Campo, E., Duplessy, J. C., and Rossignol-Strick, M.: Climatic conditions
deduced from a 150-kyr oxygen isotope–pollen record from the Arabian Sea,
Nature, 296, 56–59, https://doi.org/10.1038/296056a0, 1982.
Wang, Y., Shen, J., Wang, Y., Liu, X., Cao, X., and Herzschuh, U.: Abrupt
mid-Holocene decline in the Indian Summer Monsoon caused by tropical Indian
Ocean cooling, Clim. Dynam., 55, 1961–1977,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05363-7, 2020.
Webster, P. J., Moore, A. M., Loschnigg, J. P., and Leben, R. R.: Coupled
ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98, Nature,
401, 356–360, https://doi.org/10.1038/43848, 1999.
Yepes-Arbós, X., Acosta, M. C., Serradell, K., Mula-Valls, O., and
Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: SCALABILITY AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF EC-EARTH 3.2.0
USING A NEW METRIC APPROACH (PART I), available at: https://earth.bsc.es/wiki/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=library:external:technical_memoranda:bsc-ces-2016-001-scalability_ec-earth.pdf (last access: 15 January 2018), 2016.
Zhang, W., Ming, Q., Shi, Z., Chen, G., Niu, J., Lei, G., Chang, F., and
Zhang, H.: Lake Sediment Records on Climate Change and Human Activities in
the Xingyun Lake Catchment, SW China, edited by: Kumaran, N. K., PLoS One,
9, e102167, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0102167, 2014.
Zhao, Y. and Harrison, S. P.: Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis
of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and
ocean feedbacks, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1457–1487,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1193-z, 2012.
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle...
