Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 17 Jun 2021
| 17 Jun 2021
The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Francesco S. R. Pausata
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre ESCER (Étude et la Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle
Régionale) and GEOTOP (Research Center on the dynamics of the Earth
System), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec
in Montreal, Montreal, Canada
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, and Centre of
Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, and Bolin Centre
for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
Jayoung Yun
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Chetankumar A. Jalihal
Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of
Science, Bengaluru, India
DST-Centre of Excellence in Climate Change, Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, India
Massimo A. Bollasina
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Thomas M. Marchitto
Department of Geological Sciences and Institute of Arctic and
Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Related authors
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Iuri Gorenstein, Ilana Wainer, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Luciana F. Prado, Pedro L. S. Dias, Allegra N. LeGrande, Clay R. Tabor, and William R. Peltier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on information theory we study climate variability in the tropical and South Atlantic by examining broad patterns in ocean and rainfall data at decadal scales. Four climate models under mid‐Holocene and pre‐industrial conditions show that shifts in vegetation and dust yield varied weather responses. Our findings indicate that incorporating large-scale patterns provides a framework for understanding long-term climate behavior, offering insights for improved predictions.
Zhihong Zhuo, Xinyue Wang, Yunqian Zhu, Ewa M. Bednarz, Eric Fleming, Peter R. Colarco, Shingo Watanabe, David Plummer, Georgiy Stenchikov, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Valentina Aquila, Takashi Sekiya, Mark R. Schoeberl, Simone Tilmes, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, Paul J. Kushner, and Francesco S. R. Pausata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1505, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 Hunga eruption caused unprecedented stratospheric water injection, triggering unique atmospheric impacts. This study combines observations and model simulations, projecting a stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasting 4–7 years, with significant temperature variations and ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere lasting 7–10 years. These findings offer critical insights into the role of stratospheric water vapor in shaping climate and atmospheric chemistry.
Aude Garin, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Mathieu Boudreault, and Roberto Ingrosso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3435, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As tropical cyclones move poleward, they can transform into extratropical cyclones, a process known as extratropical transition. These storms can pose serious risks to human lives and cause damage to infrastructure along the northeastern coasts of the U.S. & Canada. Our study investigates the impacts of climate change on the frequency, intensity, and location of extratropical transitions, revealing that transitioning storms may become more destructive in the future but may not be more frequent.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Benjamin Ward, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Nicola Maher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 975–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the largest ensemble of a climate model currently available, the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), we investigated the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. By selecting three eruptions with different aerosol distributions, we found that the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the main driver of the ENSO response, while other mechanisms commonly invoked seem less important in our model.
Samuel Dandoy, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Suzana J. Camargo, René Laprise, Katja Winger, and Kerry Emanuel
Clim. Past, 17, 675–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-675-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes the impacts of changing vegetation and atmospheric dust concentrations over an area that is currently desert (the Sahara) to investigate their impacts on tropical cyclone activity during a warm climate state, the mid-Holocene. Our results suggest a significant change in Atlantic TC frequency, intensity and seasonality when considering the effects of a warmer climate in a greener world. They also highlight the importance of considering these factors in future climate studies.
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Wenjun Zhang, and Ying Xiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8805–8820, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using multi-model mean data from regional aerosol perturbation experiments, we find that increased Asian sulfate aerosols strengthen the link between ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and the East Asian winter monsoon. In coupled simulations, aerosol-induced broad cooling increases the ENSO amplitude by affecting the tropical Pacific mean state, contributing to the increase in monsoon interannual variability. These results provide important implications to reduce uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme variability.
Gabriele Messori, Emily Boyd, Joakim Nivre, and Elena Raffetti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3451, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding impacts of climate extremes is very important for society and the economy. We identify three challenges restricting this understanding: limited availability and quality of impact data, difficulties in understanding why given impacts occur and lack of reliable projections of future impacts. We also identify key opportunities, including newly released datasets, recent methodological and technical advances and interdisciplinary collaborations between the social and natural sciences.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Iuri Gorenstein, Ilana Wainer, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Luciana F. Prado, Pedro L. S. Dias, Allegra N. LeGrande, Clay R. Tabor, and William R. Peltier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on information theory we study climate variability in the tropical and South Atlantic by examining broad patterns in ocean and rainfall data at decadal scales. Four climate models under mid‐Holocene and pre‐industrial conditions show that shifts in vegetation and dust yield varied weather responses. Our findings indicate that incorporating large-scale patterns provides a framework for understanding long-term climate behavior, offering insights for improved predictions.
Valerio Lembo, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, and Flavio Emanuele Pons
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2189, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hemispheric heatwaves have fundamental implications for ecosystems and societies. They are studied together with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics, through the lens of the poleward heat transports by planetary-scale waves. Extremely weak transports of heat towards the Poles are found to be associated with hemispheric heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Therefore, we conclude that heat transports are a clear indicator, and possibly a precursor of hemispehric heatwaves.
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 521–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Chetankumar Jalihal and Uwe Mikolajewicz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1734, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Differences in surface albedo and large-scale circulation are often considered to drive the contrasts between monsoons and deserts. However, using a radiation-circulation framework, we find that large-scale circulation serves primarily as a trigger for this contrast. It is the radiative feedbacks from water vapor and clouds, rather than surface albedo, that amplify the contrast between these climates.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Zhihong Zhuo, Xinyue Wang, Yunqian Zhu, Ewa M. Bednarz, Eric Fleming, Peter R. Colarco, Shingo Watanabe, David Plummer, Georgiy Stenchikov, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Valentina Aquila, Takashi Sekiya, Mark R. Schoeberl, Simone Tilmes, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, Paul J. Kushner, and Francesco S. R. Pausata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1505, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 Hunga eruption caused unprecedented stratospheric water injection, triggering unique atmospheric impacts. This study combines observations and model simulations, projecting a stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasting 4–7 years, with significant temperature variations and ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere lasting 7–10 years. These findings offer critical insights into the role of stratospheric water vapor in shaping climate and atmospheric chemistry.
Sara Lindersson and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-128, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The study of past temperature-related disasters requires information on socioeconomic impacts, hazard intensity and human exposure. This is often lacking in current disaster databases. SHEDIS-Temperature fills this gap by integrating impact records with information on disaster locations, high-resolution meteorological data, and population estimates. Covering 382 disasters in 71 countries (1979–2018), this dataset enables deeper analyses of heat-related risk and vulnerabilities.
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers last longer and are deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Aude Garin, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Mathieu Boudreault, and Roberto Ingrosso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3435, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As tropical cyclones move poleward, they can transform into extratropical cyclones, a process known as extratropical transition. These storms can pose serious risks to human lives and cause damage to infrastructure along the northeastern coasts of the U.S. & Canada. Our study investigates the impacts of climate change on the frequency, intensity, and location of extratropical transitions, revealing that transitioning storms may become more destructive in the future but may not be more frequent.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
Clare Marie Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We created a new, publicly available database of the Top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the Top 50 storms for each input to their spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database, where possible.
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Despite this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. In this paper, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Axel Kleidon, Gabriele Messori, Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 241–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, 2023
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Benjamin Ward, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Nicola Maher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 975–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the largest ensemble of a climate model currently available, the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), we investigated the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. By selecting three eruptions with different aerosol distributions, we found that the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the main driver of the ENSO response, while other mechanisms commonly invoked seem less important in our model.
Lixia Zhang, Laura J. Wilcox, Nick J. Dunstone, David J. Paynter, Shuai Hu, Massimo Bollasina, Donghuan Li, Jonathan K. P. Shonk, and Liwei Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7499–7514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The projected frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events and global warming increases significantly due to weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol further increases the frequency of circulation patterns, but haze events are less dangerous. We revealed competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to haze intensity and their influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns.
Samuel Dandoy, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Suzana J. Camargo, René Laprise, Katja Winger, and Kerry Emanuel
Clim. Past, 17, 675–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-675-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes the impacts of changing vegetation and atmospheric dust concentrations over an area that is currently desert (the Sahara) to investigate their impacts on tropical cyclone activity during a warm climate state, the mid-Holocene. Our results suggest a significant change in Atlantic TC frequency, intensity and seasonality when considering the effects of a warmer climate in a greener world. They also highlight the importance of considering these factors in future climate studies.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Cited articles
Adler, R., Sapiano, M., Huffman, G., Wang, J.-J., Gu, G., Bolvin, D., Chiu,
L., Schneider, U., Becker, A., Nelkin, E., Xie, P., Ferraro, R., and Shin,
D.-B.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Analysis
(New Version 2.3) and a Review of 2017 Global Precipitation, Atmosphere-Basel, 9, 138, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138, 2018.
Albani, S. and Mahowald, N. M.: Paleodust Insights into Dust Impacts on
Climate, J. Climate, 32, 7897–7913,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0742.1, 2019.
Albani, S., Mahowald, N. M., Perry, A. T., Scanza, R. A., Zender, C. S.,
Heavens, N. G., Maggi, V., Kok, J. F., and Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: Improved
dust representation in the Community Atmosphere Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth
Syst., 6, 541–570, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000279, 2014.
Albani, S., Mahowald, N. M., Winckler, G., Anderson, R. F., Bradtmiller, L. I., Delmonte, B., François, R., Goman, M., Heavens, N. G., Hesse, P. P., Hovan, S. A., Kang, S. G., Kohfeld, K. E., Lu, H., Maggi, V., Mason, J. A., Mayewski, P. A., McGee, D., Miao, X., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Perry, A. T., Pourmand, A., Roberts, H. M., Rosenbloom, N., Stevens, T., and Sun, J.: Twelve thousand years of dust: the Holocene global dust cycle constrained by natural archives, Clim. Past, 11, 869–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, 2015.
Anand, P., Kroon, D., Singh, A. D., Ganeshram, R. S., Ganssen, G., and
Elderfield, H.: Coupled sea surface temperature-seawater δ18O
reconstructions in the Arabian Sea at the millennial scale for the last 35 ka, Paleoceanography, 23, PA4207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007PA001564, 2008.
Arbuszewski, J. A., deMenocal, P. B., Cléroux, C., Bradtmiller, L., and
Mix, A.: Meridional shifts of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone
since the Last Glacial Maximum, Nat. Geosci., 6, 959–962,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1961, 2013.
Ashok, K., Guan, Z., and Yamagata, T.: Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on
the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 28, 4499–4502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013294, 2001.
Banakar, V. K., Mahesh, B. S., Burr, G., and Chodankar, A. R.: Climatology of
the Eastern Arabian Sea during the last glacial Cycle reconstructed from
paired measurement of foraminiferal δ18 O and
Biasutti, M.: Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 118, 1613–1623, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50206, 2013.
Bird, B. W., Polisar, P. J., Lei, Y., Thompson, L. G., Yao, T., Finney, B.
P., Bain, D. J., Pompeani, D. P., and Steinman, B. A.: A Tibetan lake
sediment record of Holocene Indian summer monsoon variability, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 399, 92–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.05.017, 2014.
Böll, A., Schulz, H., Munz, P., Rixen, T., Gaye, B., and Emeis, K.-C.:
Contrasting sea surface temperature of summer and winter monsoon variability
in the northern Arabian Sea over the last 25 ka, Palaeogeogr.
Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 426, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PALAEO.2015.02.036,
2015.
Dahl, K. A. and Oppo, D. W.: Sea surface temperature pattern reconstructions in the Arabian Sea,
Paleoceanography, 21, PA1014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005PA001162, 2006.
Dallmeyer, A., Claussen, M., Wang, Y., and Herzschuh, U.: Spatial variability
of Holocene changes in the annual precipitation pattern: a model-data
synthesis for the Asian monsoon region, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2919–2936,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1550-6, 2013.
deMenocal, P., Ortiz, J., Guilderson, T., Adkins, J., Sarnthein, M., Baker,
L., and Yarusinsky, M.: Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid
Period:, Quat. Sci. Rev., 19, 347–361,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00081-5, 2000.
Deotare, B. C., Kajale, M. D., Rajaguru, S. N., Kusumgar, S., Jull, A. J. T.,
and Donahue, J. D.: Palaeoenvironmental history of Bap-Malar and Kanod
playas of western Rajasthan, Thar desert, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 113,
403–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02716734, 2004.
Devaraju, N., Bala, G., and Modak, A.: Effects of large-scale deforestation
on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects., P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3257–3262, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1423439112,
2015.
Dykoski, C. A., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Yuan, D., Cai, Y., Zhang, M.,
Lin, Y., Qing, J., An, Z., and Revenaugh, J.: A high-resolution,
absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave,
China, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 233, 71–86,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2005.01.036, 2005.
Egerer, S., Claussen, M., and Reick, C.: Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene, Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018.
Evan, A. T., Flamant, C., Gaetani, M., and Guichard, F.: The past, present
and future of African dust, Nature, 531, 493–495,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17149, 2016.
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S. J., Mudelsee, M., Neff, U., Kramers, J., Mangini,
A., and Matter, A.: Holocene forcing of the Indian monsoon recorded in a
stalagmite from southern Oman, Science, 300, 1737–1739,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1083130, 2003.
Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Zhang, Q., Flamant, C., and Pausata, F. S. R.:
Understanding the mechanisms behind the northward extension of the West
African Monsoon during the mid-Holocene, J. Climate, 30, 7621–7642,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0299.1, 2017.
Gaye, B., Böll, A., Segschneider, J., Burdanowitz, N., Emeis, K.-C., Ramaswamy, V., Lahajnar, N., Lückge, A., and Rixen, T.: Glacial–interglacial changes and Holocene variations in Arabian Sea denitrification, Biogeosciences, 15, 507–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-507-2018, 2018.
Gebregiorgis, D., Hathorne, E. C., Sijinkumar, A. V., Nath, B. N.,
Nürnberg, D., and Frank, M.: South Asian summer monsoon variability
during the last ∼54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity
and river runoff proxies, Quat. Sci. Rev., 138, 6–15,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2016.02.012, 2016.
Giannini, A. and Kaplan, A.: The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in
Sahel drought and recovery, Clim. Change, 152, 449–466,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9, 2019.
Gill, E. C., Rajagopalan, B., and Molnar, P. H.: An assessment of the mean
annual precipitation needed to sustain Lake Sambhar in Rajasthan, India,
during mid-Holocene time, The Holocene, 25, 1923–1934,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683615596817, 2015.
Gill, E. C., Rajagopalan, B., Molnar, P., and Marchitto, T. M.:
Reduced-dimension reconstruction of the equatorial Pacific SST and zonal
wind fields over the past 10,000 years using
Gill, E. C., Rajagopalan, B., Molnar, P. H., Kushnir, Y., and Marchitto, T.
M.: Reconstruction of Indian summer monsoon winds and precipitation over the
past 10,000 years using equatorial pacific SST proxy records,
Paleoceanography, 32, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016PA002971, 2017.
Govil, P. and Naidu, P. D.: Evaporation-precipitation changes in the eastern
Arabian Sea for the last 68 ka: Implications on monsoon variability,
Paleoceanography, 25, PA1210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001687, 2010.
Griffiths, M. L., Johnson, K. R., Pausata, F. S. R., White, J. C.,
Henderson, G. M., Wood, C. T., Yang, H., Ersek, V., Conrad, C., and Sekhon,
N.: End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in
mainland Southeast Asia, Nat. Commun., 11, 4204,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17927-6, 2020.
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P., and Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU TS
monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset, Sci. Data,
7, 109, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3, 2020.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Brewer, S., Prentice, I. C., Boyd, M.,
Hessler, I., Holmgren, K., Izumi, K., and Willis, K.: Climate model
benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates, Clim. Dynam., 43,
671–688, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6, 2014.
Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Ştefanescu, S., Yang, S.,
Wang, X., Wyser, K., Dutra, E., Baldasano, J. M., Bintanja, R., Bougeault,
P., Caballero, R., Ekman, A. M. L., Christensen, J. H., Van Den Hurk, B.,
Jimenez, P., Jones, C., Kållberg, P., Koenigk, T., McGrath, R., Miranda,
P., Van Noije, T., Palmer, T., Parodi, J. A., Schmith, T., Selten, F.,
Storelvmo, T., Sterl, A., Tapamo, H., Vancoppenolle, M., Viterbo, P., and
Willén, U.: EC-Earth: A seamless Earth-system prediction approach in
action, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1357–1363,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1, 2010.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková,
M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hess, M., Koepke, P., and Schult, I.: Optical Properties of Aerosols and
Clouds: The Software Package OPAC, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79,
831–844, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0831:OPOAAC>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Hopcroft, P. O. and Valdes, P. J.: On the Role of Dust-Climate Feedbacks
During the Mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2018GL080483,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080483, 2019.
Huang, X., Zhou, T., Dai, A., Li, H., Li, C., Chen, X., Lu, J., Von storch,
J.-S., and Wu, B.: South Asian summer monsoon projections constrained by the
interdecadal Pacific oscillation, Sci. Adv., 6, eaay6546,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay6546, 2020.
Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Bolvin, D. T., and Nelkin, E. J.: The TRMM
Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), in Satellite Rainfall
Applications for Surface Hydrology, Springer Netherlands,
Dordrecht, pp. 3–22, 2010.
Huguet, C., Kim, J.-H., Sinninghe Damsté, J. S., and Schouten, S.:
Reconstruction of sea surface temperature variations in the Arabian Sea over
the last 23 kyr using organic proxies (TEX86 and U37
Huo, Y. and Peltier, W. R.: Dynamically Downscaled Climate Change
Projections for the South Asian Monsoon: Mean and Extreme Precipitation
Changes and Physics Parameterization Impacts, J. Climate, 33, 2311–2331,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0268.1, 2020.
Jalihal, C., Srinivasan, J., and Chakraborty, A.: Modulation of Indian
monsoon by water vapor and cloud feedback over the past 22,000 years, Nat.
Commun., 10, 5701, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13754-6, 2019a.
Jalihal, C., Bosmans, J. H. C., Srinivasan, J., and Chakraborty, A.: The response of tropical precipitation to Earth's precession: the role of energy fluxes and vertical stability, Clim. Past, 15, 449–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019, 2019b.
Kuhnert, H., Kuhlmann, H., Mohtadi, M., Meggers, H., Baumann, K.-H., and
Pätzold, J.: Holocene tropical western Indian Ocean sea surface
temperatures in covariation with climatic changes in the Indonesian region,
Paleoceanography, 29, 423–437, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013PA002555, 2014.
Lau, K.-M.: East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Climate
Teleconnection, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. Ser. II, 70, 211–242,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.70.1B_211, 1992.
Lau, K. M., Kim, K. M., Sud, Y. C., and Walker, G. K.: A GCM study of the response of the atmospheric water cycle of West Africa and the Atlantic to Saharan dust radiative forcing, Ann. Geophys., 27, 4023–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-4023-2009, 2009.
Lauterbach, S., Andersen, N., Wang, Y. V., Blanz, T., Larsen, T., and
Schneider, R. R.: An ∼130 kyr Record of Surface Water
Temperature and δ18O From the Northern Bay of Bengal:
Investigating the Linkage Between Heinrich Events and Weak Monsoon Intervals
in Asia, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatology, 35, e2019PA003646, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003646,
2020.
Lézine, A.-M., Hély, C., Grenier, C., Braconnot, P., and Krinner, G.:
Sahara and Sahel vulnerability to climate changes, lessons from Holocene
hydrological data, Quat. Sci. Rev., 30, 3001–3012,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.07.006, 2011.
Li, Z., Shi, X., Chen, M.-T., Wang, H., Liu, S., Xu, J., Long, H., Troa, R.
A., Zuraida, R., and Triarso, E.: Late Quaternary fingerprints of precession
and sea level variation over the past 35 kyr as revealed by sea surface
temperature and upwelling records from the Indian Ocean near southernmost
Sumatra, Quat. Int., 425, 282–291, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUAINT.2016.07.013, 2016.
Liu, Z., Harrison, S. P., Kutzbach, J., and Otto-Bliesner, B.: Global
monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback, Clim. Dynam., 22,
157–182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0372-y, 2004.
Lückge, A., Mohtadi, M., Rühlemann, C., Scheeder, G., Vink, A.,
Reinhardt, L., and Wiedicke, M.: Monsoon versus ocean circulation controls on
paleoenvironmental conditions off southern Sumatra during the past 300,000
years, Paleoceanography, 24, PA1208, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001627, 2009.
McGee, D., deMenocal, P. B., Winckler, G., Stuut, J. B. W., and Bradtmiller,
L. I.: The magnitude, timing and abruptness of changes in North African dust
deposition over the last 20,000 yr, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 371–372,
163–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.03.054, 2013.
Messori, G., Gaetani, M., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Q., and Pausata, F. S. R.: The
water cycle of the mid-Holocene West African monsoon: The role of vegetation
and dust emission changes, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1927–1939,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5924, 2019.
Mishra, S. K., Sahany, S., Salunke, P., Kang, I.-S., and Jain, S.: Fidelity
of CMIP5 multi-model mean in assessing Indian monsoon simulations, npj Clim.
Atmos. Sci., 1, 39, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0049-1, 2018.
Mohtadi, M., Steinke, S., Lückge, A., Groeneveld, J., and Hathorne, E.
C.: Glacial to Holocene surface hydrography of the tropical eastern Indian
Ocean, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 292, 89–97,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2010.01.024, 2010.
Muschitiello, F., Zhang, Q., Sundqvist, H. S., Davies, F. J., and Renssen,
H.: Arctic climate response to the termination of the African Humid Period,
Quat. Sci. Rev., 125, 91–97, 2015.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Capron, E., Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Fischer, H., Goelzer, H., Govin, A., Haywood, A., Joos, F., LeGrande, A. N., Lipscomb, W. H., Lohmann, G., Mahowald, N., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Pausata, F. S. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Phipps, S. J., Renssen, H., and Zhang, Q.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017.
Pausata, F. S. R., Messori, G., and Zhang, Q.: Impacts of dust reduction on
the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara
period, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 434, 298–307,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.049, 2016.
Pausata, F. S. R., Zhang, Q., Muschitiello, F., Lu, Z., Chafik, L.,
Niedermeyer, E. M., Stager, J. C., Cobb, K. M., and Liu, Z.: Greening of the
Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene, Nat. Commun., 8, 16020,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16020, 2017a.
Pausata, F. S. R., Emanuel, K. A., Chiacchio, M., Diro, G. T., Zhang, Q.,
Sushama, L., Stager, J. C., and Donnelly, J. P.: Tropical cyclone activity
enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African
Humid Period, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 6221–6226,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619111114, 2017b.
Pausata, F. S. R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Berg, A., Maia de Souza, D.,
Sage, R. F., and deMenocal, P. B.: The Greening of the Sahara: Past Changes
and Future Implications, One Earth, 2, 235–250,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.002, 2020.
Piao, J., Chen, W., Wang, L., Pausata, F. S. R., and Zhang, Q.: Northward
extension of the East Asian summer monsoon during the mid-Holocene, Glob.
Planet. Change, 184, 103046, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2019.103046, 2020.
Prasad, S., Kusumgar, S., and Gupta, S. K.: A mid to late Holocene record of
palaeoclimatic changes from Nal Sarovar: a palaeodesert margin lake in
western India, J. Quat. Sci., 12, 153–159,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(199703/04)12:2<153::AID-JQS300>3.0.CO;2-X, 1997.
Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Jolly, D., and Guiot, J.: The climate and
biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and
pollen-based reconstructions, Quat. Sci. Rev., 17, 659–668,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X, 1998.
Rashid, H., Flower, B. P., Poore, R. Z., and Quinn, T. M.: A ∼25 ka Indian Ocean monsoon variability record from the Andaman Sea, Quat.
Sci. Rev., 26, 2586–2597, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2007.07.002,
2007.
Raza, T., Ahmad, S. M., Steinke, S., Raza, W., Lone, M. A., Beja, S. K., and
Suseela, G.: Glacial to Holocene changes in sea surface temperature and
seawater δ18O in the northern Indian Ocean, Palaeogeogr.
Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 485, 697–705,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PALAEO.2017.07.026, 2017.
Rostek, F., Bard, E., Beaufort, L., Sonzogni, C., and Ganssen, G.: Sea
surface temperature and productivity records for the past 240 kyr in the
Arabian Sea, Deep Sea Res. Part II Top. Stud. Oceanogr., 44,
1461–1480, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(97)00008-8, 1997.
Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., and Yamagata, T.: A
dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360–363,
https://doi.org/10.1038/43854, 1999.
Saraswat, R., Lea, D. W., Nigam, R., Mackensen, A., and Naik, D. K.:
Deglaciation in the tropical Indian Ocean driven by interplay between the
regional monsoon and global teleconnections, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett.,
375, 166–175, 2013.
Schulte, S. and Müller, P.: Variations of sea surface temperature and
primary productivity during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the
northeastern Arabian Sea, Geo-Mar. Lett., 21, 168–175,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s003670100080, 2001.
Shi, Z., Xie, X., Li, X., Yang, L., Xie, X., Lei, J., Sha, Y., and Liu, X.: Snow-darkening versus direct radiative effects of mineral dust aerosol on the Indian summer monsoon onset: role of temperature change over dust sources, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1605–1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1605-2019, 2019.
Sonzogni, C., Bard, E., and Rostek, F.: Tropical sea-surface temperatures
during the last glacial period: A view based on alkenones in Indian Ocean
sediments, Quat. Sci. Rev., 17, 1185–1201,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(97)00099-1, 1998.
Sterl, A., Bintanja, R., Brodeau, L., Gleeson, E., Koenigk, T., Schmith, T.,
Semmler, T., Severijns, C., Wyser, K., and Yang, S.: A look at the ocean in
the EC-Earth climate model, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2631–2657,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1239-2, 2012.
Sukumar, R., Ramesh, R., Pant, R. K., and Rajagopalan, G.: A δ13C
record of late Quaternary climate change from tropical peats in southern
India, Nature, 364, 703–706, https://doi.org/10.1038/364703a0, 1993.
Sun, W., Wang, B., Zhang, Q., Pausata, F. S. R., Chen, D., Lu, G., Yan, M.,
Ning, L., and Liu, J.: Northern Hemisphere Land Monsoon Precipitation
Increased by the Green Sahara During Middle Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
46, 9870–9879, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082116, 2019.
Swann, A. L. S., Fung, I. Y., and Chiang, J. C. H.: Mid-latitude
afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation., P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 712–716, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116706108,
2012.
Swann, A. L. S., Fung, I. Y., Liu, Y., and Chiang, J. C. H.: Remote
Vegetation Feedbacks and the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara, J. Climate, 27,
4857–4870, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00690.1, 2014.
Swapna, P., Krishnan, R., Sandeep, N., Prajeesh, A. G., Ayantika, D. C.,
Manmeet, S., and Vellore, R.: Long-Term Climate Simulations Using the IITM
Earth System Model (IITM-ESMv2) With Focus on the South Asian Monsoon, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 1127–1149, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001262, 2018.
Tarasov, P. E., Webb III, T., Andreev, A. A., Afanas'eva, N. B., Berezina,
N. A., Bezusko, L. G., Blyakharchuk, T. A., Bolikhovskaya, N. S., Cheddadi,
R., Chernavskaya, M. M., Chernova, G. M., Dorofeyuk, N. I., Dirksen, V. G.,
Elina, G. A., Filimonova, L. V., Glebov, F. Z., Guiot, J., Gunova, V. S.,
Harrison, S. P., Jolly, D., Khomutova, V. I., Kvavadze, E. V., Osipova, I.
M., Panova, N. K., Prentice, I. C., Saarse, L., Sevastyanov, D. V., Volkova,
V. S., and Zernitskaya, V. P.: Present-day and mid-Holocene biomes
reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data from the former Soviet
Union and Mongolia, J. Biogeogr., 25, 1029–1053,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.1998.00236.x, 1998.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: A Summary of the CMIP5
Experiment Design, available at:
https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/ (last access: 1 June 2021), 2009.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Tegen, I., Hollrig, P., Chin, M., Fung, I., Jacob, D., and Penner, J.:
Contribution of different aerosol species to the global aerosol extinction
optical thickness: Estimates from model results, J. Geophys. Res., 102,
23895, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01864, 1997.
Texier, D., de Noblet, N., and Braconnot, P.: Sensitivity of the African and
Asian Monsoons to Mid-Holocene Insolation and Data-Inferred Surface Changes,
J. Climate, 13, 164–181, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0164:SOTAAA>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Thompson, A. J., Skinner, C. B., Poulsen, C. J., and Zhu, J.: Modulation of
Mid-Holocene African Rainfall by Dust Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3917–3926, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081225, 2019.
Thompson, L. G., Yao, T., Davis, M. E., Henderson, K. A., Mosley-Thompson,
E., Lin, P. N., Beer, J., Synal, H. A., Cole-Dai, J., and Bolzan, J. F.:
Tropical climate instability: The last glacial cycle from a Qinghai-Tibetan
ice core, Science, 276, 1821–1825,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.276.5320.1821, 1997.
Tierney, J. E., Pausata, F. S. R., and De Menocal, P. B.: Rainfall regimes of
the Green Sahara, Sci. Adv., 3, e1601503, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601503, 2017.
Timmermann, A., Sachs, J., and Timm, O. E.: Assessing divergent SST behavior
during the last 21 ka derived from alkenones and G. ruber-
Van Campo, E., Duplessy, J. C., and Rossignol-Strick, M.: Climatic conditions
deduced from a 150-kyr oxygen isotope–pollen record from the Arabian Sea,
Nature, 296, 56–59, https://doi.org/10.1038/296056a0, 1982.
Wang, Y., Shen, J., Wang, Y., Liu, X., Cao, X., and Herzschuh, U.: Abrupt
mid-Holocene decline in the Indian Summer Monsoon caused by tropical Indian
Ocean cooling, Clim. Dynam., 55, 1961–1977,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05363-7, 2020.
Webster, P. J., Moore, A. M., Loschnigg, J. P., and Leben, R. R.: Coupled
ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98, Nature,
401, 356–360, https://doi.org/10.1038/43848, 1999.
Yepes-Arbós, X., Acosta, M. C., Serradell, K., Mula-Valls, O., and
Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: SCALABILITY AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF EC-EARTH 3.2.0
USING A NEW METRIC APPROACH (PART I), available at: https://earth.bsc.es/wiki/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=library:external:technical_memoranda:bsc-ces-2016-001-scalability_ec-earth.pdf (last access: 15 January 2018), 2016.
Zhang, W., Ming, Q., Shi, Z., Chen, G., Niu, J., Lei, G., Chang, F., and
Zhang, H.: Lake Sediment Records on Climate Change and Human Activities in
the Xingyun Lake Catchment, SW China, edited by: Kumaran, N. K., PLoS One,
9, e102167, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0102167, 2014.
Zhao, Y. and Harrison, S. P.: Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis
of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and
ocean feedbacks, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1457–1487,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1193-z, 2012.
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle...
