Articles | Volume 14, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1707-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1707-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Nov 2018
Research article |
| 12 Nov 2018
| 12 Nov 2018
Link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the surface mass balance components of the Greenland Ice Sheet under preindustrial and last interglacial climates: a study with a coupled global circulation model
Silvana Ramos Buarque
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques),
Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS (Centre
National de la Recherche Scientifique), Toulouse, France
David Salas y Melia
CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques),
Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS (Centre
National de la Recherche Scientifique), Toulouse, France
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Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
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Roland Séférian, Christine Delire, Bertrand Decharme, Aurore Voldoire, David Salas y Melia, Matthieu Chevallier, David Saint-Martin, Olivier Aumont, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Dominique Carrer, Hervé Douville, Laurent Franchistéguy, Emilie Joetzjer, and Séphane Sénési
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P. Huszar, H. Teyssèdre, M. Michou, A. Voldoire, D. J. L. Olivié, D. Saint-Martin, D. Cariolle, S. Senesi, D. Salas Y Melia, A. Alias, F. Karcher, P. Ricaud, and T. Halenka
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Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Milankovitch
Antarctic climate response in Last Interglacial simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)
Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model
New estimation of critical insolation–CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception
Toward generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT)
Unraveling the complexities of the Last Glacial Maximum climate: the role of individual boundary conditions and forcings
Do phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models have physical similarity with Nature? Seemingly, not all of them do
Deglacial climate changes as forced by different ice sheet reconstructions
The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations
An energy budget approach to understand the Arctic warming during the Last Interglacial
Milankovitch, the father of paleoclimate modeling
Greenland climate simulations show high Eemian surface melt which could explain reduced total air content in ice cores
The response of tropical precipitation to Earth's precession: the role of energy fluxes and vertical stability
Interhemispheric effect of global geography on Earth's climate response to orbital forcing
Eemian Greenland SMB strongly sensitive to model choice
The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle
Comparison of surface mass balance of ice sheets simulated by positive-degree-day method and energy balance approach
Sea ice led to poleward-shifted winds at the Last Glacial Maximum: the influence of state dependency on CMIP5 and PMIP3 models
The effect of a dynamic soil scheme on the climate of the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum
Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate
Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica
Coupled ice sheet–climate modeling under glacial and pre-industrial boundary conditions
Relative impact of insolation and the Indo-Pacific warm pool surface temperature on the East Asia summer monsoon during the MIS-13 interglacial
Factors controlling the last interglacial climate as simulated by LOVECLIM1.3
Deglacial ice sheet meltdown: orbital pacemaking and CO2 effects
Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe
Impact of precession on the climate, vegetation and fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4
Mending Milankovitch's theory: obliquity amplification by surface feedbacks
Megalake Chad impact on climate and vegetation during the late Pliocene and the mid-Holocene
Modeling the climatic implications and indicative senses of the Guliya δ18O-temperature proxy record to the ocean–atmosphere system during the past 130 ka
Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise
Southern westerlies in LGM and future (RCP4.5) climates
Inferred gas hydrate and permafrost stability history models linked to climate change in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Arctic Canada
The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles
Methane variations on orbital timescales: a transient modeling experiment
Deciphering the spatio-temporal complexity of climate change of the last deglaciation: a model analysis
Effects of orbital forcing on atmosphere and ocean heat transports in Holocene and Eemian climate simulations with a comprehensive Earth system model
Investigating the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle
Individual and combined effects of ice sheets and precession on MIS-13 climate
Mira Berdahl, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Robert A. Tomas, Nathan M. Urban, Ian Miller, Harriet Morgan, and Eric J. Steig
Clim. Past, 20, 2349–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, 2024
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Studying climate conditions near the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during Earth’s past warm periods informs us about how global warming may influence AIS ice loss. Using a global climate model, we investigate climate conditions near the AIS during the Last Interglacial (129 to 116 kyr ago), a period with warmer global temperatures and higher sea level than today. We identify the orbital and freshwater forcings that could cause ice loss and probe the mechanisms that lead to warmer climate conditions.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
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Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, 2024
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To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not give enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 151–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024, 2024
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Despite significant progress in modelling Quaternary climate dynamics, a comprehensive theory of glacial cycles is still lacking. Here, using the results of model simulations and data analysis, I present a framework of the generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT), which further advances the concept proposed by Milutin Milankovitch over a century ago. The theory explains a number of facts which were not known during Milankovitch time's, such as the 100 kyr periodicity of the late Quaternary.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 1793–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, 2023
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Are phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models physically similar to Nature? We demonstrated that though they may be very accurate in reproducing empirical time series, this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with Nature until similarity parameters are considered. We suggest that the diagnostics of physical similarity should become a standard procedure before a phenomenological model can be utilized for interpretations of historical records or future predictions.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
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The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
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We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Marie Sicard, Masa Kageyama, Sylvie Charbit, Pascale Braconnot, and Jean-Baptiste Madeleine
Clim. Past, 18, 607–629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-607-2022, 2022
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The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) is characterised by an increased summer insolation over the Arctic region, which leads to a strong temperature rise. The aim of this study is to identify and quantify the main processes and feedback causing this Arctic warming. Using the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, we investigate changes in the energy budget relative to the pre-industrial period. We highlight the crucial role of Arctic sea ice cover, ocean and clouds on the Last Interglacial Arctic warming.
Andre Berger
Clim. Past, 17, 1727–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1727-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1727-2021, 2021
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This paper stresses the original contributions of Milankovitch related to his caloric seasons and his climate model giving the caloric seasons a climatological meaning.
Andreas Plach, Bo M. Vinther, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sindhu Vudayagiri, and Thomas Blunier
Clim. Past, 17, 317–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-317-2021, 2021
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In light of recent large-scale melting of the Greenland ice sheet
(GrIS), e.g., in the summer of 2012 several days with surface melt
on the entire ice sheet (including elevations above 3000 m), we use
computer simulations to estimate the amount of melt during a
warmer-than-present period of the past. Our simulations show more
extensive melt than today. This is important for the interpretation of
ice cores which are used to reconstruct the evolution of the ice sheet
and the climate.
Chetankumar Jalihal, Joyce Helena Catharina Bosmans, Jayaraman Srinivasan, and Arindam Chakraborty
Clim. Past, 15, 449–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019, 2019
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Insolation is thought to drive monsoons on orbital timescales. We find that insolation can be a trigger for changes in precipitation, but surface energy and vertical stability play an important role too. These feedbacks are found to be dominant over oceans and can even counter the insolation forcing, thus leading to a land–sea differential response in precipitation.
Rajarshi Roychowdhury and Robert DeConto
Clim. Past, 15, 377–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-377-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-377-2019, 2019
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The climate response of the Earth to orbital forcing shows a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, and one of the reasons can be ascribed to the unequal distribution of land in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. We show that a land asymmetry effect (LAE) exists, and that it can be quantified. By using a GCM with a unique geographic setup, we illustrate that there are far-field influences of global geography that moderate or accentuate the Earth's response to orbital forcing.
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sébastien Le clec'h, Andreas Born, Petra M. Langebroek, Chuncheng Guo, Michael Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 14, 1463–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, 2018
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The Greenland ice sheet is a huge frozen water reservoir which is crucial for predictions of sea level in a warming future climate. Therefore, computer models are needed to reliably simulate the melt of ice sheets. In this study, we use climate model simulations of the last period where it was warmer than today in Greenland. We test different melt models under these climatic conditions and show that the melt models show very different results under these warmer conditions.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
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The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
Eva Bauer and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 13, 819–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, 2017
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Transient glacial cycle simulations with an EMIC and the PDD method require smaller melt factors for inception than for termination and larger factors for American than European ice sheets. The PDD online method with standard values simulates a sea level drop of 250 m at the LGM. The PDD online run reproducing the LGM ice volume has deficient ablation for reversing from glacial to interglacial climate, so termination is delayed. The SEB method with dust impact on snow albedo is seen as superior.
Louise C. Sime, Dominic Hodgson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Claire Allen, Bianca Perren, Stephen Roberts, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 12, 2241–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, 2016
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Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could explain large observed changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However there is considerable disagreement in modelled deglacial-warming jet shifts. Here multi-model output is used to show that expansion of sea ice during the glacial period likely caused a slight poleward shift and intensification in the westerly wind jet. Issues with model representation of the winds caused much of the previous disagreement.
M. Stärz, G. Lohmann, and G. Knorr
Clim. Past, 12, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, 2016
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In order to account for coupled climate-soil processes, we developed a soil scheme which is asynchronously coupled to an earth system model. We tested the scheme and found additional warming for a relatively warm climate (mid-Holocene), and extra cooling for a colder (Last Glacial Maximum) than preindustrial climate. These findings indicate a relatively strong positive soil feedback to climate, which may help to reduce model-data discrepancies for the climate of the geological past.
J. H. C. Bosmans, F. J. Hilgen, E. Tuenter, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 11, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1335-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1335-2015, 2015
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Our study shows that the influence of obliquity (the tilt of Earth's rotational axis) can be explained through changes in the insolation gradient across the tropics. This explanation is fundamentally different from high-latitude mechanisms that were previously often inferred to explain obliquity signals in low-latitude paleoclimate records, for instance glacial fluctuations. Our study is based on state-of-the-art climate model experiments.
N. Sudarchikova, U. Mikolajewicz, C. Timmreck, D. O'Donnell, G. Schurgers, D. Sein, and K. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 765–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, 2015
F. A. Ziemen, C. B. Rodehacke, and U. Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 10, 1817–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, 2014
Q. Z. Yin, U. K. Singh, A. Berger, Z. T. Guo, and M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 10, 1645–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, 2014
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
M. Heinemann, A. Timmermann, O. Elison Timm, F. Saito, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 10, 1567–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, 2014
N. Korhonen, A. Venäläinen, H. Seppä, and H. Järvinen
Clim. Past, 10, 1489–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, 2014
M.-N. Woillez, G. Levavasseur, A.-L. Daniau, M. Kageyama, D. H. Urrego, M.-F. Sánchez-Goñi, and V. Hanquiez
Clim. Past, 10, 1165–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1165-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1165-2014, 2014
C. R. Tabor, C. J. Poulsen, and D. Pollard
Clim. Past, 10, 41–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-41-2014, 2014
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Short summary
The link between the surface mass balance components of the Greenland Ice Sheet and both phases of the NAO is examined under preindustrial and warmer and colder climates of the last interglacial from simulations performed with CNRM-CM5.2. Accumulation in south Greenland is correlated with positive (negative) phases of the NAO in a warm (cold) climate. Melting under a warm (cold) climate is correlated with the negative (positive) phase of the NAO in north and northeast Greenland (at the margins).
The link between the surface mass balance components of the Greenland Ice Sheet and both phases...
