Articles | Volume 13, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Dec 2017
Research article |
| 22 Dec 2017
Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years
Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of
Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and
Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve,
1348, Belgium
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,
and College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information
Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
School of Ocean and Earth Sciences and Technology, University of
Hawaii at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Zhengtang Guo
Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of
Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing,
100101, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Hugues Goosse
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and
Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve,
1348, Belgium
Qiuzhen Yin
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and
Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve,
1348, Belgium
Related authors
Shengnan Feng, Xingqi Liu, Feng Shi, Xin Mao, Yun Li, and Jiaping Wang
Clim. Past, 18, 975–988, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-975-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-975-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a continuous humidity history in arid Central Asia over the past millennium based on the ~1.8-year high-resolution multiproxy record from Lake Dalongchi. Our findings emphasize that the Gleissberg solar cycle and quasi-regular period of ENSO amplitude play critical roles in controlling the effective humidity at century and multidecadal timescales, respectively. Our analysis provides new insights for hydroclimate predictions and climate simulations in arid Central Asia in the future.
Chenxi Xu, Masaki Sano, Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri, Rengaswamy Ramesh, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Feng Shi, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 14, 653–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have constructed a regional tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope record using a total of five chronologies obtained from the Himalaya. Centennial changes in the regional tree ring record indicate a trend of weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820.
Marie Genevieve Paule Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores in East Antarctica show contrasting records of past snowfall. We tested if large-scale weather patterns could explain this by combining ice core data with an atmospheric model and radar-derived errors. However, the reconstruction produced unrealistic wind patterns to fit the ice core records. We suggest that uncertainties are not fully captured and that small-scale local wind effects, not represented in the model, could significantly influence snowfall records in the ice cores.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Dominique Raynaud, Qiuzhen Yin, Emilie Capron, Zhipeng Wu, Frédéric Parrenin, André Berger, and Vladimir Lipenkov
Clim. Past, 20, 1269–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1269-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a lack of reconstructions from Antarctic ice cores of the temperature during the summer, a critical season in terms of solar energy received, preventing a good understanding of the link between Antarctic past climate and astronomically induced insolation changes. Here, the variations in total air content in an Antarctic ice core are found to be correlated to local summer temperatures simulated with a climate model. This tracer can be used to reconstruct past local summer temperatures.
Haoyue Zuo, Yonggang Liu, Gaojun Li, Zhifang Xu, Liang Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, and Yongyun Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3949–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Compared to the silicate weathering fluxes measured at large river basins, the current models tend to systematically overestimate the fluxes over the tropical region, which leads to an overestimation of the global total weathering flux. The most possible cause of such bias is found to be the overestimation of tropical surface erosion, which indicates that the tropical vegetation likely slows down physical erosion significantly. We propose a way of taking this effect into account in models.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Shengnan Feng, Xingqi Liu, Feng Shi, Xin Mao, Yun Li, and Jiaping Wang
Clim. Past, 18, 975–988, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-975-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-975-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a continuous humidity history in arid Central Asia over the past millennium based on the ~1.8-year high-resolution multiproxy record from Lake Dalongchi. Our findings emphasize that the Gleissberg solar cycle and quasi-regular period of ENSO amplitude play critical roles in controlling the effective humidity at century and multidecadal timescales, respectively. Our analysis provides new insights for hydroclimate predictions and climate simulations in arid Central Asia in the future.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Zhongshi Zhang, Qing Yan, Ran Zhang, Florence Colleoni, Gilles Ramstein, Gaowen Dai, Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, Stefan Liess, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Naiqing Wu, Elizabeth J. Farmer, Camille Contoux, Chuncheng Guo, Ning Tan, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-38, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Whether an ice sheet once grew over Northeast Siberia-Beringia has been debated for decades. By comparing climate modelling with paleoclimate and glacial records from around the North Pacific, this study shows that the Laurentide-Eurasia-only ice sheet configuration fails in explaining these records, while a scenario involving the ice sheet over Northeast Siberia-Beringia succeeds. It highlights the complexity in glacial climates and urges new investigations across Northeast Siberia-Beringia.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Yong Sun, Christophe Dumas, Pierre Sepulchre, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 16, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the warm climate during the late Pliocene (~3.205 Ma), modeling experiments with the new boundary conditions are launched and analyzed based on the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM). Our results show that the warming in mid- to high latitudes enhanced due to the modifications of the land–sea mask and land–ice configuration. The pCO2 uncertainties within the records can produce asymmetrical warming patterns.
Yating Lin, Gilles Ramstein, Haibin Wu, Raj Rani, Pascale Braconnot, Masa Kageyama, Qin Li, Yunli Luo, Ran Zhang, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 15, 1223–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Holocene has been an excellent target for comparing models and data. This work shows that, over China, all the ocean–atmosphere general circulation models involved in PMIP3 show a very large discrepancy with pollen data reconstruction when comparing annual and seasonal temperature. It demonstrates that to reconcile models and data and to capture the signature of seasonal thermal response, it is necessary to integrate non-linear processes, particularly those related to vegetation changes.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Chenxi Xu, Masaki Sano, Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri, Rengaswamy Ramesh, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Feng Shi, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 14, 653–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have constructed a regional tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope record using a total of five chronologies obtained from the Himalaya. Centennial changes in the regional tree ring record indicate a trend of weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Wenshou Tian, Yuanpu Li, Fei Xie, Jiankai Zhang, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Yongyun Hu, Sen Zhao, Xin Zhou, Yun Yang, and Xuan Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6705–6722, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6705-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6705-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Although the principal mechanisms responsible for the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole are well understood, the factors or processes that generate interannual variations in ozone levels in the southern high-latitude stratosphere remain under debate. This study finds that the SST variations across the East Asian marginal seas (5° S–35° N, 100–140° E) could modulate the southern high-latitude stratospheric ozone interannual changes.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
P. X. Wang, B. Wang, H. Cheng, J. Fasullo, Z. T. Guo, T. Kiefer, and Z. Y. Liu
Clim. Past, 10, 2007–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2007-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2007-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
All regional monsoons belong to a cohesive global monsoon circulation system, albeit thateach regional subsystem has its own indigenous features. A comprehensive review of global monsoon variability reveals that regional monsoons can vary coherently across a range of timescales, from interannual up to orbital and tectonic. Study of monsoon variability from both global and regional perspectives is imperative and advantageous for integrated understanding of the modern and paleo-monsoon dynamics.
Q. Z. Yin, U. K. Singh, A. Berger, Z. T. Guo, and M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 10, 1645–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, 2014
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
H. Wu, C. Peng, T. R. Moore, D. Hua, C. Li, Q. Zhu, M. Peichl, M. A. Arain, and Z. Guo
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 867–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-867-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-867-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
H. Wu, C. Peng, M. Lucotte, N. Soumis, Y. Gélinas, É. Duchemin, J.-B. Plouhinec, A. Ouellet, and Z. Guo
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-3509-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-3509-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
Y. Y. Yu, P. A. Finke, H. B. Wu, and Z. T. Guo
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 29–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-29-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-29-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Decadal-Seasonal
Process, spatial pattern and impacts of 1743 Extreme heat: From the perspective of historical documents
Weather and climate and their human impacts and responses during the Thirty Years' War in central Europe
Documents, Reanalysis, and Global Circulation Models: A New Method for Reconstructing Historical Climate Focusing on Present-day Inland Tanzania, 1856–1890
A global inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate since the 15th century
The 1600 CE Huaynaputina eruption as a possible trigger for persistent cooling in the North Atlantic region
Analysis of early Japanese meteorological data and historical weather documents to reconstruct the winter climate between the 1840s and the early 1850s
Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions: a global state of the art
Could phenological records from Chinese poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) be reliable evidence of past climate changes?
Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?
“Everything is scorched by the burning sun”: missionary perspectives and experiences of 19th- and early 20th-century droughts in semi-arid central Namibia
Patterns in data of extreme droughts/floods and harvest grades derived from historical documents in eastern China during 801–1910
The extreme drought of 1842 in Europe as described by both documentary data and instrumental measurements
The climate in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, 1803–1830, based on daily weather records kept by the Reverend Šimon Hausner
The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century (1706–1730) according to documentary sources
Extracting weather information from a plantation document
Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years
300 years of hydrological records and societal responses to droughts and floods on the Pacific coast of Central America
Climatic effects and impacts of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Czech Lands
Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence
Observations of a stratospheric aerosol veil from a tropical volcanic eruption in December 1808: is this the Unknown ∼1809 eruption?
Documentary-derived chronologies of rainfall variability in Antigua, Lesser Antilles, 1770–1890
An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003
Snow and weather climatic control on snow avalanche occurrence fluctuations over 50 yr in the French Alps
Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701–1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations
Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970
Le Tao, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Fangyu Tian
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-3, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Our study collected 63 historical documents about 1743 extreme heat from 3 kinds of historical materials. By methods of text analysis such as keywords extraction, grading and classification, the extreme heat in 1743 was recovered. The advances of this study are that: details of the process of heat wave development over time are given, spatially severe regions are identified, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of extreme heat are discerned.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Christian Pfister, Katrin Kleemann, Kateřina Chromá, Péter Szabó, and Piotr Olinski
Clim. Past, 19, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Thirty Years' War (from 1618 to 1648 CE), an armed military conflict in Europe, brought extensive devastation to Europe. The paper analyses annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and drought patterns, as well as severe weather extremes, based particularly on documentary data, during this event in central Europe to demonstrate their broad impacts on human society and human responses in coincidence with weather and climate during this period of hardship.
Philip Gooding, Melissa J. Lazenby, Michael R. Frogley, Cecile Dai, and Wenqi Su
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-992, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article integrates data from historical documents and global climate reconstructions to make a time-series of seasonal rainfall variability in nineteenth-century Tanzania. It both makes a scientifically grounded interpretation of qualitative descriptions written in documents and acknowledges the limits of current climate reconstructions over Africa. The result is a trans-disciplinary methodological breakthrough that incorporates history into the practice of climate reconstruction.
Angela-Maria Burgdorf
Clim. Past, 18, 1407–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This comprehensive inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate extending back to 1400 CE promotes the first ever global perspective on documentary climate records. It lays the foundation for incorporating documentary evidence from archives of societies into global-scale climate reconstructions, complementing (early) instrumental measurements and natural climate proxies. Documentary records are particularly relevant in seasons and regions poorly covered by natural proxies.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
Junpei Hirano, Takehiko Mikami, and Masumi Zaiki
Clim. Past, 18, 327–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-327-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-327-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The East Asian winter monsoon causes orographic snowfall over the windward side of the Japanese islands (facing the Sea of Japan and the northwesterly winter monsoon flow) and negative temperature anomalies around Japan. In this study, we reconstruct the outbreak of the winter monsoon around Japan for the winter from the 1840s to the early 1850s by using daily weather information recorded in old Japanese diaries and early daily instrumental temperature data.
David J. Nash, George C. D. Adamson, Linden Ashcroft, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Dagomar Degroot, Joelle Gergis, Adrian Jusopović, Thomas Labbé, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Sharon D. Nicholson, Qing Pei, María del Rosario Prieto, Ursula Rack, Facundo Rojas, and Sam White
Clim. Past, 17, 1273–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Qualitative evidence contained within historical sources provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. Before such evidence can be used for climate reconstructions, it needs to be converted to a quantitative format. A common approach is the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. This review, written by members of the PAGES CRIAS working group, provides a global synthesis of the use of the index approach.
Yachen Liu, Xiuqi Fang, Junhu Dai, Huanjiong Wang, and Zexing Tao
Clim. Past, 17, 929–950, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There are controversies about whether poetry can be used as one of the evidence sources for past climate changes. We tried to discuss the reliability and validity of phenological records from poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) by analyzing their certainties and uncertainties. A standardized processing method for phenological records from poems is introduced. We hope that this study can provide a reference for the extraction and application of phenological records from poems.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Piotr Oliński, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies related to historical droughts in the Czech Lands showed that the summers of 1531–1540 could represent the driest summer decade of the past 500 years. To confirm this hypothesis, documentary data from central Europe were collected and presented for individual summers and complemented by maps of precipitation and drought distribution to document corresponding weather patterns and their various impacts. The main droughts occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly in 1540.
Stefan Grab and Tizian Zumthurm
Clim. Past, 16, 679–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe the unique nature of droughts over semi-arid central Namibia (southern Africa) between 1850 and 1920. We establish temporal shifts in the influence and impact that historical droughts had on society and the environment during this period. The paper demonstrates and argues that human experience and the associated reporting of drought events depend strongly on social, environmental, spatial, and societal developmental situations and perspectives.
Zhixin Hao, Maowei Wu, Jingyun Zheng, Jiewei Chen, Xuezhen Zhang, and Shiwei Luo
Clim. Past, 16, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using reconstructed extreme drought/flood chronologies and grain harvest series derived from historical documents, it is found that the frequency of reporting of extreme droughts in any subregion of eastern China was significantly associated with lower reconstructed harvests during 801–1910. The association was weak during the warm epoch of 920–1300 but strong during the cold epoch of 1310–1880, which indicates that a warm climate might weaken the impact of extreme drought on poor harvests.
Rudolf Brázdil, Gaston R. Demarée, Andrea Kiss, Petr Dobrovolný, Kateřina Chromá, Miroslav Trnka, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, Danuta Limanowka, and Sylvie Jourdain
Clim. Past, 15, 1861–1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents analysis of the 1842 drought in Europe (except the Mediterranean) based on documentary data and instrumental records. First the meteorological background of this drought is shown (seasonal distribution of precipitation, annual variation of temperature, precipitation and drought indices, synoptic reasons) and effects of drought on water management, agriculture, and in society are described in detail with particular attention to human responses.
Rudolf Brázdil, Hubert Valášek, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Monika Bělínová, Adam Valík, and Pavel Zahradníček
Clim. Past, 15, 1205–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyses a weather diary of the Reverend Šimon Hausner from Buchlovice in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, in the 1803–1831 period. From daily weather records, series of numbers of precipitation days, cloudiness, strong winds, fogs, and thunderstorms were created. These records were further used to interpret weighted temperature and precipitation indices. Records of Šimon Hausner represent an important contribution to the study of climate fluctuations on the central European scale.
Fernando S. Rodrigo
Clim. Past, 15, 647–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-647-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century is reconstructed. Results suggest that climatic conditions were similar to those of the first decades of the 20th century, when the global warming signal was of less importance than today. In addition, the paper presents the instrumental data taken in Granada in 1729, probably the first instrumental meteorological data recorded in Spain. Some extreme events, such as the cold wave of winter 1729, are studied.
Gregory Burris, Jane Washburn, Omar Lasheen, Sophia Dorribo, James B. Elsner, and Ronald E. Doel
Clim. Past, 15, 477–492, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-477-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Historical documents are full of untapped data on past climate conditions. Our paper sets out a method for extracting this information into a database that is easily utilized by climate scientists. We apply this method to a document from Shirley Plantation covering the years 1816–1842. We then provide two case studies to demonstrate the validity and utility of the new method and database.
Jingyun Zheng, Yingzhuo Yu, Xuezhen Zhang, and Zhixin Hao
Clim. Past, 14, 1135–1145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods in North China using a 17-site seasonal precipitation reconstruction from a unique historical archive. Then, the link of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO episodes and large volcanic eruptions was discussed. This study helps us understand whether the recent extreme events observed by instruments exceed the natural variability at a regional scale, which may be useful for adaptation to extremes and disasters in the future.
Alvaro Guevara-Murua, Caroline A. Williams, Erica J. Hendy, and Pablo Imbach
Clim. Past, 14, 175–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-175-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconstructs a new semi-quantitative rainfall index for the Pacific coast of Central America using documentary sources for the period 1640 to 1945. In addition, we explore the various mechanisms and processes that may explain inter-annual and inter-decadal rainfall variability over the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Hubert Valášek, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 12, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with climatic and human impacts of the strong Tambora (Indonesia) volcanic eruption in April 1815 over the Czech Lands territory based on analysis of documentary data and instrumental records. While climatic effects were related particularly to summers 1815 and 1816 (1816 is known as "a Year Without Summer"), quite important were societal impacts represented after bad harvest by steep increase in prices and shortages of food.
C. Camenisch
Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices of temperature and precipitation.
A. Guevara-Murua, C. A. Williams, E. J. Hendy, A. C. Rust, and K. V. Cashman
Clim. Past, 10, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, 2014
A. J. Berland, S. E. Metcalfe, and G. H. Endfield
Clim. Past, 9, 1331–1343, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1331-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1331-2013, 2013
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 9, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, 2013
H. Castebrunet, N. Eckert, and G. Giraud
Clim. Past, 8, 855–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-855-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-855-2012, 2012
F. S. Rodrigo, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and J. P. Montávez Gómez
Clim. Past, 8, 117–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-117-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-117-2012, 2012
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 7, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1307-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1307-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Blarquez, O. and Carcaillet, C.: Fire, fuel composition and resilience threshold in subalpine ecosystem, PLoS One, 5, e12480, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0012480, 2010.
Bradley, R. S.: The explosive volcanic eruption signal in Northern Hemisphere continental temperature records, Climatic Change, 12, 221–243, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139431, 1988.
Casty, C., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., Esper, J., and Bohm, R.: Temperature and precipitation variability in the european Alps since 1500, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1855–1880, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1216, 2005.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science: China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period, Cartological Press, Beijing, China, 1981 (in Chinese).
Christiansen, B.: Reconstructing the NH mean temperature: Can underestimation of trends and variability be avoided?, J. Climate, 24, 674–692, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3646.1, 2011.
Christiansen, B. and Ljungqvist, F. C.: Reconstruction of the extratropical NH Mean temperature over the last millennium with a method that preserves low-frequency variability, J. Climate, 24, 6013–6034, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4145.1, 2011.
Christiansen, B. and Ljungqvist, F. C.: Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia, Rev. Geophys., 55, 40–96, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000521, 2017.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Are simulated megadroughts in the North American southwest forced?, J. Climate, 28, 124–142, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1, 2015.
Cook, B. I., Ault, T. R., and Smerdon, J. E.: Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains, Sci. Adv., 1, e1400082, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082, 2015.
Cook, E. R., Meko, D. M., Stahle, D. W., and Cleaveland, M. K.: Drought reconstructions for the continental United States, J. Climate, 12, 1145–1162, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1145:DRFTCU>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Cook, E. R., Woodhouse, C. A., Eakin, C. M., Meko, D. M., and Stahle, D. W.: Long-term aridity changes in the western United States, Science, 306, 1015–1018, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1102586, 2004.
Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Anchukaitis, K. J., and Diaz, H. F.: 700 Year Tree-Ring ENSO Index Reconstructions, available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/8704 (last access: 19 December 2017), 2008.
Cook, E. R., Anchukaitis, K. J., Buckley, B. M., D'Arrigo, R. D., Jacoby, G. C., and Wright, W. E.: Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium, Science, 328, 486–489, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185188, 2010.
Cook, E. R., Krusic, P. J., Anchukaitis, K. J., Buckley, B. M., Nakatsuka, T., Sano, M., and PAGES Asia2k Members: Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 CE, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2957–2972, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1611-x, 2013.
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Frank, D., Krusic, P. J., Tegel, W., van der Schrier, G., Andreu-Hayles, L., Baillie, M., Baittinger, C., Bleicher, N., Bonde, N., Brown, D., Carrer, M., Cooper, R., Čufar, K., Dittmar, C., Esper, J., Griggs, C., Gunnarson, B., Günther, B., Gutierrez, E., Haneca, K., Helama, S., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Hofmann, J., Janda, P., Kontic, R., Köse, N., Kyncl, T., Levanič, T., Linderholm, H., Manning, S., Melvin, T. M., Miles, D., Neuwirth, B., Nicolussi, K., Nola, P., Panayotov, M., Popa, I., Rothe, A., Seftigen, K., Seim, A., Svarva, H., Svoboda, M., Thun, T., Timonen, M., Touchan, R., Trotsiuk, V., Trouet, V., Walder, F., Ważny, T., Wilson, R., and Zang, C.: Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Sci. Adv., 1, e1500561, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561, 2015.
D'Arrigo, R. D. and Wilson, R.: On the Asian expression of the PDO, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1607–1617, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1326, 2006.
D'Arrigo, R. D., Villalba, R., and Wiles, G.: Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability, Clim. Dynam., 18, 219–224, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100177, 2001.
Day, J. A., Fung, I. Y., and Risi, C.: Coupling of South and East Asian Monsoon Precipitation in July–August, J. Climate, 28, 4330–4356, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00393.1, 2015.
Ding, Y., Wang, Z., and Sun, Y.: Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1139–1161, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1615, 2008.
Ding, Y., Sun, Y., Wang, Z., Zhu, Y., and Song, Y.: Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon Part II: Possible causes, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1926–1944, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1759, 2009.
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., and Benshila, R.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013.
Evans, M., Kaplan, A., Cane, M., and Villalba, R.: Chapter 4 – Globality and optimality in climate field reconstructions from proxy data, in: Interhemispheric climate linkages, ed. Vera Markgraf, Academic Press, San Diego, 53–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-012472670-3/50007-0, 2001.
Feng, J., Li, J. P., Zheng, F., and Sun, C.: Contrasting impacts of developing phases of two types of El Niño on southern China rainfall, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 94, 359–370, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2016-019, 2016.
Feng, S., Hu, Q., Wu, Q., and Mann, M. E.: A gridded reconstruction of warm season precipitation for Asia spanning the past half millennium, J. Climate, 26, 2192–2204, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00099.1, 2013.
Fritts, H. C.: Tree rings and climate, Academic Press, London, 1976.
Ge, Q.: The climate change in China during the past dynasties, Science Press, Beijing, 2011 (in Chinese).
Ge, Q., Zheng, J., Hao, Z., Liu, Y., and Li, M.: Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years, J. Geogr. Sci., 26, 827–854, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-016-1301-4, 2016.
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Werner, J., Wagner, S., Luterbacher, J., and Zorita, E.: Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments, Clim. Dynam., 45, 1395–1413, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2388-x, 2015.
Guo, Y., Li, J., and Li, Y.: A time-scale decomposition approach to statistically downscale summer rainfall over North China, J. Climate, 25, 572–591, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00014.1, 2012.
Hakim, G. J., Emile-Geay, J., Steig, E. J., Noone, D., Anderson, D. M., Tardif, R., Steiger, N., and Perkins, W. A.: The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 6745–6764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751, 2016.
Hanhijärvi, S., Tingley, M., and Korhola, A.: Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2039–2060, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1701-4, 2013.
Hao, Z., Zheng, J., Zhang, X., Liu, H., Li, M., and Ge, Q.: Spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies in eastern China during centennial cold and warm periods of the past 2000 years, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 467–475, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4367, 2016.
Hirota, N. and Takahashi, M.: A tripolar pattern as an internal mode of the East Asian summer monsoon, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2219–2238, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1416-y, 2012.
Huang, R. and Li, W.: Influence of heat source anomaly over the western tropical Pacific on the subtropical high over East Asia during summer and its physical mechanism, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 107–117, 1988 (in Chinese).
Huang, R. and Wu, Y.: The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 6, 21–32, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02656915, 1989.
Huang, N. and Wu, Z.: A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: method and its applications to geophysical studies, Rev. Geophys., 46, RG2006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000228, 2008.
Huang, R., Xu, Y., and Zhou, L.: The interdecadal variation of summer precipitations in China and the drought trend in North China, Plateau Meteor., 18, 465–476, 1999 (in Chinese).
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Timmreck, C., Reick, C. H., Brovkin, V., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M. A., Crowley, T. J., Pongratz, J., Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E., Solanki, S. K., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T. J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann, H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 723–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-723-2010, 2010.
Kang, S., Bräuning, A., and Ge, H.: Tree-ring based evidence of the multi-decadal climatic oscillation during the past 200 years in north-central China, J. Arid Environ., 110, 53–59, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.06.003, 2014.
Karori, M. A., Li, J., and Jin, F.: The asymmetric influence of the two types of El Niño and La Niña on summer rainfall over Southeast China, J. Climate, 26, 4567–4582, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00324.1, 2013.
Klein, F., Goosse, H., Graham, N. E., and Verschuren, D.: Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016.
Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Conley, A., Lawrence, P. J., Rosenbloom, N., and Teng, H.: Last millennium climate and its variability in CCSM4, J. Climate, 26, 1085–1111, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00326.1, 2012.
Li, J., Xie, S., Cook, E. R., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Johnson, N. C., Chen, F., D'Arrigo, R. D., Fowler, A. M., Gou, X., and Fang, K.: El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 822–826, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1936, 2013a.
Li, J., Ren, R., Qi, Y., Wang, F., Lu, R., Zhang, P., Jiang, Z., Duan, W., Yu, F., and Yang, Y.: Progress in air-land-sea interactions in Asia and their role in global and Asian climate change, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 518–538, 2013b (in Chinese).
Li, Q., Peng, J., and Shen, Y.: Development of China homogenized monthly precipitation dataset during 1900–2009, J. Geogr. Sci., 22, 579–593, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0948-8, 2012.
Li, Z., Lau, W. K. M., Ramanathan, V., Wu, G., Ding, Y., Manoj, M. G., Liu, J., Qian, Y., Li, J., Zhou, T., Fan, J., Rosenfeld, D., Ming, Y., Wang, Y., Huang, J., Wang, B., Xu, X., Lee, S. S., Cribb, M., Zhang, F., Yang, X., Zhao, C., Takemura, T., Wang, K., Xia, X., Yin, Y., Zhang, H., Guo, J., Zhai, P. M., Sugimoto, N., Babu, S. S., and Brasseur, G. P.: Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia, Rev. Geophys., 54, 866–929, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000500, 2016.
Liu, F., Chai, J., Wang, B., Liu, J., Zhang, X., and Wang, Z.: Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions, Sci. Rep., 6, 24331, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24331, 2016.
Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M., and Wanner, H.: European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500, Science, 303, 1499–1503, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1093877, 2004.
Ma, Z.: The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Chinese Sci. Bull., 52, 2130–2139, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-007-0284-z, 2007.
Man, W., Zhou, T., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Effects of large volcanic eruptions on global summer climate and East Asian monsoon changes during the Last millennium: Analysis of MPI-ESM simulations, J. Climate, 27, 7394–7409, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00739.1, 2014.
Man, Z.: Climatic change historical period of China, Shandong Education Press, Jinan, 2009 (in Chinese).
Mann, M. E., Park, J., and Bradley, R.: Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries, Nature, 378, 266–270, https://doi.org/10.1038/378266a0, 1995.
Mann, M. E., Bradley, R. S., and Hughes, M. K.: Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 759–762, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900070, 1999.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M. K., Bradley, R. S., Miller, S. K., Rutherford, S., and Ni, F.: Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 13252–13257, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805721105, 2008.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z. H., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., and Ni, F. B.: Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256–1260, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1177303, 2009.
McGregor, S., Timmermann, A., and Timm, O.: A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650, Clim. Past, 6, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-1-2010, 2010.
McShane, B. B. and Wyner, A. J.: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?, Ann. Appl. Stat., 5, 5–44, https://doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS398, 2011.
Neukom, R., Luterbacher, J., Villalba, R., Kuttel, M., Frank, D., Jones, P. D., Grosjean, M., Wanner, H., Aravena, J. C., Black, D. E., Christie, D. A., D'Arrigo, R. D., Lara, A., Morales, M., Soliz-Gamboa, C., Srur, A., Urrutia, R., and von Gunten, L.: Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries, Clim. Dynam., 37, 35–51, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0793-3, 2011.
Neukom, R., Nash, D. J., Endfield, G. H., Grab, S. W., Grove, C. A., Kelso, C., Vogel, C. H., and Zinke, J.: Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years, Clim. Dynam., 42, 2713–2726, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1886-6, 2013.
Newman, M., Alexander, M. A., Ault, T. R., Cobb, K. M., Deser, C., Di Lorenzo, E., Mantua, N. J., Miller, A. J., Minobe, S., and Nakamura, H.: The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited, J. Climate, 29, 4399–4427, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1, 2016.
Nitta, T.: Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 65, 373-390, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.65.3_373, 1987.
North, G. R., Bell, T. L., Cahalan, R. F., and Moeng, F. J.: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 699–706, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2, 1982.
PAGES 2k Consortium: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797, 2013.
PAGES 2k Consortium: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Sci. Data, 4, 170088, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88, 2017.
Palmer, J. G., Cook, E. R., Turney, C. S., Allen, K., Fenwick, P., Cook, B. I., O'Donnell, A., Lough, J., Grierson, P., and Baker, P.: Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 124002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002, 2015.
Pei, L., Yan, Z., and Hui, Y.: Multidecadal variability of dry/wet patterns in eastern China and their relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the last 413 years, Chinese Sci. Bull., 60, 97–108, https://doi.org/10.1360/n972014-00790, 2015.
Qian, C. and Zhou, T.: Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900–2010, J. Climate, 27, 1210–1222, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00235.1, 2014.
Qian, W., Hu, Q., Zhu, Y., and Lee, D.: Centennial-scale dry-wet variations in East Asia, Clim. Dynam., 21, 77–89, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0319-3, 2003a.
Qian, W., Chen, D., Zhu, Y., and Shen, H.: Temporal and spatial variability of dryness/wetness in China during the last 530 years, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 76, 13–29, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-003-0009-4, 2003b.
Ruan, C. and Li, J.: An improvement in a time-scale decomposition statistical downscaling prediction model for summer rainfall over North China, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 215–226, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1503.14317, 2016 (in Chinese).
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., and Bleck, R.: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 6, 141–184, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014.
Schneider, T.: Analysis of incomplete climate data: Estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values, J. Climate, 14, 853–871, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0853:AOICDE>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Schubert, S. D., Stewart, R. E., Wang, H., Barlow, M., Berbery, E. H., Cai, W., Hoerling, M. P., Kanikicharla, K. K., Koster, R. D., and Lyon, B.: Global meteorological drought: A synthesis of current understanding with a focus on SST drivers of precipitation deficits, J. Climate, 29, 3989–4019, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0452.1, 2016.
Seftigen, K., Björklund, J., Cook, E., and Linderholm, H.: A tree-ring field reconstruction of Fennoscandian summer hydroclimate variability for the last millennium, Clim. Dynam., 44, 3141–3154, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2191-8, 2015.
Shao, X., Huang, L., Liu, H., Liang, E., Fang, X., and Wang, L.: Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha, Qinghai, Sci. China Ser. D, 48, 939–949, https://doi.org/10.1360/03yd0146, 2005.
Shen, C., Wang, W. C., Gong, W., and Hao, Z.: A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024804, 2006.
Shi, F., Yang, B., Ljungqvist, F. C., and Yang F.: Multi-proxy reconstruction of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 1400 years, Clim. Res., 54, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01112, 2012.
Shi, F., Li, J., and Wilson, R.: A tree-ring reconstruction of the South Asian summer monsoon index over the past millennium, Sci. Rep.-UK, 4, 6739, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep06739, 2014.
Shi, F., Ge, Q., Yang, B., Li, J., Yang, F., Ljungqvist, F. C., Solomina, O., Nakatsuka, T., Wang, N., Zhao, S., Xu, C., Fang, K., Sano, M., Chu, G., Fan, Z., Gaire, N. P., and Zafar, M. U.: A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium, Climatic Change, 131, 663–676, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1413-3, 2015a.
Shi, F., Yang, B., Feng, J., Li, J., Yang, F., and Guo, Z.: Reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere annual temperature change over the common era derived from tree rings, Quaternary Sci., 35, 1051–1063, https://doi.org/10.11928/j.issn.1001-7410.2015.05.01, 2015b (in Chinese).
Shi, F., Fang, K., Xu, C., Guo, Z., and Borgaonkar, H. P.: Interannual to centennial variability of the South Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium, Clim. Dynam., 49, 2803–2814, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3493-9, 2017.
Shi, Z., Xu, T., and Wang, H.: Sensitivity of Asian climate change to radiative forcing during the last millennium in a multi-model analysis, Global Planet. Change, 139, 195–210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.02.007, 2016.
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Buntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M., Schupbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years, Nature, 523, 543–549, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015.
Song, F. and Zhou, T.: The crucial role of internal variability in modulating the decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon – ENSO relationship during the twentieth century, J. Climate, 28, 7093–7107, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00783.1, 2015.
Stuecker, M. F., Timmermann, A., Jin, F., McGregor, S., and Ren, H.-L.: A combination mode of the annual cycle and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Nat. Geosci., 6, 540–544, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1826, 2013.
Tingley, M. P. and Huybers, P.: A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part I: Development and Applications to Paleoclimate Reconstruction Problems, J. Climate, 23, 2759–2781, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3015.1, 2010.
Wan, H., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., and Shiogama, H.: Effect of data coverage on the estimation of mean and variability of precipitation at global and regional scales, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 534–546, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50118, 2013.
Wang, B., Wu, R., and Fu, X.: Pacific–east Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect east Asian climate?, J. Climate, 13, 1517–1536, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Wang, S. and Zhao, Z.: An analyses of historical data of droughts and floods in last 500 years in China, Acta Geol. Sin., 34, 329–341, 1979 (in Chinese).
Wang, S., Gong, D., and Zhu, J.: Twentieth-century climatic warming in China in the context of the Holocene, Holocene, 11, 313–321, https://doi.org/10.1191/095968301673172698, 2001.
Wang, S., Cai, J., Mu, Q., Xie, Z., and Dong, W.: Climate change of annual precipitation in western China, J. Nat. Resour., 17, 415–422, 2002 (in Chinese).
Wang, Y., Lean, J. L., and Sheeley, N. R.: Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713, Astrophys. J., 625, 522–538, https://doi.org/10.1086/429689, 2005.
Widmann, M., Goosse, H., van der Schrier, G., Schnur, R., and Barkmeijer, J.: Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 627–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-627-2010, 2010.
Wu, B., Li, T., and Zhou, T.: Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Niño decaying summer, J. Climate, 23, 2974–2986, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3300.1, 2010.
Wu, R. and Wang, B.: A Contrast of the East Asian Summer Monsoon–ENSO Relationship between 1962–77 and 1978–93, J. Climate, 15, 3266–3279, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3266:ACOTEA>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Wu, T., Yu, R., Zhang, F., Wang, Z., Dong, M., Wang, L., Jin, X., Chen, D., and Li, L.: The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: description and its performance for the present-day climate, Clim. Dynam., 34, 123–147, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0487-2, 2010.
Wu, Z. and Huang, N.: Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise assisted data analysis method, Adv. Adapt. Data Anal., 1, 1–41, https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793536909000047, 2009.
Wu, Z., Wang, B., Li, J., and Jin, F.: An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D18120, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011733, 2009.
Wu, Z., Li, J., Jiang, Z., and Ma, T.: Modulation of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the ENSO teleconnections: From the East Asian summer monsoon perspective, J. Climate, 25, 2481–2489, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00135.1, 2012.
Xie, S., Hu, K., Hafner, J., Tokinaga, H., Du, Y., Huang, G., and Sampe, T.: Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño, J. Climate, 22, 730–747, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1, 2009.
Yang, B., Kang, S., Ljungqvist, F. C., He, M., Zhao, Y., and Qin, C.: Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia, Clim. Dynam., 43, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1962-y, 2014a.
Yang, B., Qin, C., Wang, J., He, M., Melvin, T. M., Osborn, T. J., and Briffa, K. R.: A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 2903–2908, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1319238111, 2014b.
Yang, F., Shi, F., Kang, S., Wang, S., Xiao, Z., Nakatsuka, T., and Shi, J.: Comparison of the dryness/wetness index in China with the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 114, 553–566, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0858-4, 2013a.
Yang, F., Wang, N., Shi, F., Ljungqvist, F. C., Wang, S., Fan, Z., and Lu, J.: Multi-proxy temperature reconstruction from the West Qinling Mountains, China, for the past 500 years, PLoS ONE, 8, e57638, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0057638, 2013b.
Yang, F., Wang, N., Shi, F., Ljungqvist, F. C., Zhao, S., and Liu, T.: The spatial distribution of precipitation over the West Qinling region, China, AD 1470–2000, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 443, 278–285, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.003, 2016.
Yu, R. and Zhou, T.: Seasonality and three-dimensional structure of interdecadal change in the East Asian monsoon, J. Climate, 20, 5344–5355, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1559.1, 2007.
Zhang, D.: Method to reconstruct climatic series for the past 500 years and its reliability, Collected Papers of Meteorological Science and Technology, 4, 17–26, 1983 (in Chinese).
Zhang, D.: The method for reconstruction of the dryness/wetness series in China for the last 500 years and its reliability, in: The reconstruction of climate in China for historical times, edited by: Zhang, J., Science Press, Beijing, China, 18–30, 1988.
Zhang, D.: Historical records of climate change in China, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 551–554, https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(91)90049-Z, 1991.
Zhang, D.: A compendium of Chinese meteorological records of the last 3000 years, Jiangsu Education Publishing House, Nanjing, 2004 (in Chinese).
Zhang, D.: Test of calibration on the paleoclimatic proxy data by using Chinese historical records, Adv. Climate Change Res., 6, 70–72, https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00038, 2010.
Zhang, D. and Liu, C.: Continuation (1980–1992) of the yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500 years period, Meter. Mon., 19, 41–45, 1993 (in Chinese).
Zhang, D., Li, X., and Liang, Y.: Continuation (1992–2000) of the yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500 years period, J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci., 14, 379–384, 2003a (in Chinese).
Zhang, D., Wang, L., and Sun, X.: Reconstruction of grid precipitation anomaly in Eastern China from historical documents: New study on Chinese historical climate records, Quaternary Sci., 23, 177–184, 2003b (in Chinese).
Zhang, L. and Zhou, T.: Drought over East Asia: A Review, J. Climate, 28, 3375–3399, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00259.1, 2015.
Zhang, Q., Cheng, G., Yao, T., Kang, X., and Huang, J.: A 2,326-year tree-ring record of climate variability on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1739–1742, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl017425, 2003.
Zhang, W., Jin, F., Li, J., and Ren, H.: Contrasting impacts of two-type El Niño over the western North Pacific during boreal autumn, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 89, 563–569, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2011-510, 2011.
Zhang, W., Jin, F., Stuecker, M. F., Wittenberg, A. T., Timmermann, A., Ren, H. L., Kug, J. S., Cai, W., and Cane, M.: Unraveling El Niño's impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11,375–11,382, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071190, 2016.
Zhao, S., Li, J., and Sun, C.: Decadal variability in the occurrence of wintertime haze in central eastern China tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6, 27424, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep27424, 2016.
Zhao, Y. and Zhu, J.: Assessing quality of grid daily precipitation datasets in China in recent 50 years, Plateau Meteor., 34, 50–58, 2015 (in Chinese).
Zheng, F., Li, J., Li, Y., Zhao, S., and Deng, D.: Influence of the summer NAO on the spring-NAO-based predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 55, 1459–1476, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0199.1, 2016.
Zheng, J., Wang, W., Ge, Q., Man, Z., and Zhang, P.: Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years, Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 17, 579–592, https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2006.17.3.579(A), 2006.
Zheng, J., Ge, Q., Hao, Z., Liu, H., Man, Z., Hou, Y., and Fang, X.: Paleoclimatology proxy recorded in historical documents and method for reconstruction on climate change, Quaternary Sci., 34, 1186–1196, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2014.06.07, 2014a (in Chinese).
Zheng, J., Hao, Z., Fang, X., and Ge, Q.: Changing characteristics of extreme climate events during past 2000 years in China, Prog. Geogr., 33, 3–12, https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.01.001, 2014b (in Chinese).
Zhou, T., Gong, D., Li, J., and Li, B.: Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon recent progress and state of affairs, Meteorol. Z., 18, 455–467, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0396, 2009.
Zhuo, Z., Gao, C., and Pan, Y.: Proxy evidence for China's monsoon precipitation response to volcanic aerosols over the past seven centuries, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 6638–6652, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021061, 2014.
Short summary
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which...
