Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Clim. Past, 12, 911–921, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Clim. Past, 12, 911–921, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
11 Apr 2016
Review article
| 11 Apr 2016
Palaeo-sea-level and palaeo-ice-sheet databases: problems, strategies, and perspectives
André Düsterhus et al.
Related authors
Patrick Pieper, André Düsterhus, and Johanna Baehr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4541–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, 2020
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The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely accepted drought index. SPI normalizes the precipitation distribution via a probability density function (PDF). However, which PDF properly normalizes SPI is still disputed. We suggest using a previously mostly overlooked PDF, namely the exponentiated Weibull distribution. The proposed PDF ensures the normality of the index. We demonstrate this – for the first time – for all common accumulation periods in both observations and simulations.
André Düsterhus
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020, 2020
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Seasonal prediction of the of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been improved in recent years by improving dynamical models and ensemble predictions. One step therein was the so-called sub-sampling, which combines statistical and dynamical predictions. This study generalises this approach and makes it much more accessible. Furthermore, it presents a new verification approach for such predictions.
Alessio Rovere, Deirdre D. Ryan, Matteo Vacchi, Andrea Dutton, Alexander R. Simms, and Colin V. Murray-Wallace
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-198, 2022
Preprint under review for ESSD
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In this work, we describe WALIS, the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines. WALIS is a sea-level database, that includes sea-level proxies and samples dated to Marine Isotope Stage 5 (~80 to 130 ka). The database was built through topical data compilations included in a Special Issue in this journal.
Andrea Dutton, Alexandra Villa, and Peter M. Chutcharavan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2385–2399, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2385-2022, 2022
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This paper includes data that have been compiled to identify the position of sea level during a warm period about 125 000 years ago that is known as the Last Interglacial. Here, we have focused on compiling data for the region of the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the east coast of Florida. These data were compiled and placed within a standardized format prescribed by a new database known as WALIS, which stands for World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines Database.
Nicholas Depsky, Ian Bolliger, Daniel Allen, Jun Ho Choi, Michael Delgado, Michael Greenstone, Ali Hamidi, Trevor Houser, Robert E. Kopp, and Solomon Hsiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-198, 2022
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This work presents a novel, open-source modelling platform and associated input dataset of physical and socioeconomic coastal characteristics for over 9,000 discrete segments of global coastlines for evaluating future sea-level rise (SLR) impacts. We performed an initial evaluation of estimated future costs under 110 different future scenarios of SLR and socioeconomic growth trajectories and estimate global annual costs from SLR to range from roughly $200–500 billion by the year 2100.
Reyko Schachtschneider, Jan Saynisch-Wagner, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Maik Thomas
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 53–75, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-53-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-53-2022, 2022
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Glacial isostatic adjustment is the delayed reaction of the Earth's lithosphere and mantle to changing mass loads of ice sheets or water. The deformation behaviour of the Earth's surface depends on the ability of the Earth's mantle to flow, i.e. its viscosity. It can be estimated from sea level observations, and in our study, we estimate mantle viscosity using sea level observations from the past. This knowledge is essential for understanding current sea level changes due to melting ice.
Erica L. Ashe, Nicole S. Khan, Lauren T. Toth, Andrea Dutton, and Robert E. Kopp
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-1-2022, 2022
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We develop a new technique to integrate realistic uncertainties in probabilistic models of past sea-level change. The new framework performs better than past methods (in precision, accuracy, bias, and model fit) because it enables the incorporation of previously unused data and exploits correlations in the data. This method has the potential to assess the validity of past estimates of extreme sea-level rise and highstands providing better context in which to place current sea-level change.
Marc J. P. Gouw and Marc P. Hijma
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 43–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-43-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-43-2022, 2022
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If you were to navigate an entire delta by boat, you would clearly see that the general characteristics of the channels change throughout the delta. The drivers behind these changes have been studied extensively. Field studies encompassing the entire delta are rare but give important insights into these drivers that can help other researchers. The most important drivers are channel lateral-migration rate, channel-belt longevity, creation of accommodation space and inherited floodplain width.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, 2021
Preprint under review for CP
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This review: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have limited interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out tractable Bayesian inference for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Ryan Love, Heather J. Andres, Alan Condron, and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 17, 2327–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021, 2021
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Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability and climate transitions. We track the routing of glaciologically constrained freshwater volumes in glacial ocean simulations. Our simulations capture important generally not well-represented small-scale features (boundary currents, eddies). We show that the dilution of freshwater as it is transported to key climate regions reduces the freshening to 20 %–60 %.
Karla Rubio-Sandoval, Alessio Rovere, Ciro Cerrone, Paolo Stocchi, Thomas Lorscheid, Thomas Felis, Ann-Kathrin Petersen, and Deirdre D. Ryan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4819–4845, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4819-2021, 2021
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The Last Interglacial (LIG) is a warm period characterized by a higher-than-present sea level. For this reason, scientists use it as an analog for future climatic conditions. In this paper, we use the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines database to standardize LIG sea-level data along the coasts of the western Atlantic and mainland Caribbean, identifying 55 unique sea-level indicators.
Tanya J. R. Lippmann, Michiel H. in 't Zandt, Nathalie N. L. Van der Putten, Freek S. Busschers, Marc P. Hijma, Pieter van der Velden, Tim de Groot, Zicarlo van Aalderen, Ove H. Meisel, Caroline P. Slomp, Helge Niemann, Mike S. M. Jetten, Han A. J. Dolman, and Cornelia U. Welte
Biogeosciences, 18, 5491–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5491-2021, 2021
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This paper is a step towards understanding the basal peat ecosystem beneath the North Sea. Plant remains followed parallel sequences. Methane concentrations were low with local exceptions, with the source likely being trapped pockets of millennia-old methane. Microbial community structure indicated the absence of a biofilter and was diverse across sites. Large carbon stores in the presence of methanogens and in the absence of methanotrophs have the potential to be metabolized into methane.
Ciro Cerrone, Matteo Vacchi, Alessandro Fontana, and Alessio Rovere
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4485–4527, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4485-2021, 2021
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The paper is a critical review and standardization of 199 published scientific papers to compile a Last Interglacial sea-level database for the Western Mediterranean sector. In the database, 396 sea-level data points associated with 401 dated samples are included. The relative sea-level data points and associated ages have been ranked on a 0 to 5 scale score.
Kathrine Maxwell, Hildegard Westphal, and Alessio Rovere
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4313–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4313-2021, 2021
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Marine Isotope Stage 5e (MIS 5e; the Last Interglacial, 125 ka) represents a period in the Earth’s geologic history when sea level was higher than present. In this paper, a standardized database was produced after screening and reviewing LIG sea-level data from published papers in Southeast Asia. We identified 43 unique sea-level indicators (42 from coral reef terraces and 1 from a tidal notch) and compiled the data in the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS).
Peter M. Chutcharavan and Andrea Dutton
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3155–3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3155-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3155-2021, 2021
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This paper summarizes a global database of fossil coral U-series ages for the Last Interglacial period and was compiled as a contribution to the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines. Each entry contains relevant age, elevation and sample metadata, and all ages and isotope activity ratios have been normalized and recalculated using the same decay constant values. We also provide two example geochemical screening criteria to help users assess sample age quality.
Patrick Boyden, Jennifer Weil-Accardo, Pierre Deschamps, Davide Oppo, and Alessio Rovere
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1633–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1633-2021, 2021
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Sea levels during the last interglacial (130 to 73 ka) are seen as possible process analogs for future sea-level-rise scenarios as our world warms. To this end we catalog previously published ancient shoreline elevations and chronologies in a standardized data format for East Africa and the Western Indian Ocean region. These entries were then contributed to the greater World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines database.
Taimaz Bahadory, Lev Tarasov, and Heather Andres
Clim. Past, 17, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, 2021
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We present an ensemble of last glacial inception simulations using a fully coupled ice–climate model for the Northern Hemisphere. The ensemble largely captures inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. Notable features include an ice bridge across Davis Strait and between Greenland and Iceland. Via an equilibrium climate response experiment, we also demonstrate the potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.
Evan J. Gowan, Alessio Rovere, Deirdre D. Ryan, Sebastian Richiano, Alejandro Montes, Marta Pappalardo, and Marina L. Aguirre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 171–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-171-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-171-2021, 2021
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During the last interglacial (130 to 115 ka), global sea level was higher than present. The World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS) has been created to document this. In this paper, we have compiled data for southeastern South America. There are landforms that indicate that sea level was 5 to 25 m higher than present during this time period. However, the quality of these data is hampered by limitations on elevation measurements, chronology, and geological descriptions.
Barbara Mauz, Dorit Sivan, and Ehud Galili
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-357, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-357, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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Raised beaches have long been used to infer past sea-level fluctuations. Here we review data associated with such sea-level indicators for the eastern Mediterranean. Our standardised compilation of geological data confirm, albeit with large uncertainties, the position of the last interglacial sea level at around 5 m above modern sea level as predicted by various geophysical models.
Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Mathieu Morlighem, Surendra Adhikari, Thomas Frederikse, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Erik Ivins, Benjamin Hamlington, Robert Kopp, and Sophie Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4925–4941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, 2020
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ISSM-SLPS is a new projection system for future sea level that increases the resolution and accuracy of current projection systems and improves the way uncertainty is treated in such projections. This will pave the way for better inclusion of state-of-the-art results from existing intercomparison efforts carried out by the scientific community, such as GlacierMIP2 or ISMIP6, into sea-level projections.
Patrick Pieper, André Düsterhus, and Johanna Baehr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4541–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, 2020
Short summary
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The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely accepted drought index. SPI normalizes the precipitation distribution via a probability density function (PDF). However, which PDF properly normalizes SPI is still disputed. We suggest using a previously mostly overlooked PDF, namely the exponentiated Weibull distribution. The proposed PDF ensures the normality of the index. We demonstrate this – for the first time – for all common accumulation periods in both observations and simulations.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
T. Ivelja, B. Bechor, O. Hasan, S. Miko, D. Sivan, and A. Brook
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B1-2020, 457–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2020-457-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2020-457-2020, 2020
Maren Bender, Thomas Mann, Paolo Stocchi, Dominik Kneer, Tilo Schöne, Julia Illigner, Jamaluddin Jompa, and Alessio Rovere
Clim. Past, 16, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1187-2020, 2020
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This paper presents 24 new sea-level index points in the Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia, and the reconstruction of the local Holocene relative sea-level history in combination with glacial isostasic adjustment models. We further show the importance of surveying the height of living coral microatolls as modern analogs to the fossil ones. Other interesting aspects are the potential subsidence of one of the densely populated islands, and we present eight samples that are dated to the Common Era.
for subsidence in coastal Louisiana
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, and Gilles Erkens
Proc. IAHS, 382, 333–337, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-333-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-333-2020, 2020
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Decreased distance from the marsh to the marsh edge can lower groundwater tables and increase soil stresses that lead to subsidence. We explore the possibility that the canals that have been dug in the wetlands in coastal Louisiana have decreased marsh edge distances and therefore have contributed to subsidence.
Claudia Zoccarato, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, Pietro Teatini, and Jonathan G. Bridgeman
Proc. IAHS, 382, 565–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-565-2020, 2020
André Düsterhus
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020, 2020
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Seasonal prediction of the of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been improved in recent years by improving dynamical models and ensemble predictions. One step therein was the so-called sub-sampling, which combines statistical and dynamical predictions. This study generalises this approach and makes it much more accessible. Furthermore, it presents a new verification approach for such predictions.
Heather J. Andres and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 15, 1621–1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, 2019
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Abrupt climate shifts of large magnitudes were common during glacial states, with explanations centred on the oceans. However, winds drive ocean surface currents so shifts in mean wind conditions could also have played a critical role. In a small ensemble of transient deglacial simulations, we find abrupt shifts in both jet stream location and variability over the North Atlantic. We show that the eastern North American ice sheet margin strongly constrains regional jet characteristics.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
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As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Molly E. Keogh and Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Ocean Sci., 15, 61–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-61-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-61-2019, 2019
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Relative sea-level rise is traditionally measured with tide gauges, but we question the reliability of tide-gauge data in low-elevation coastal zones. Benchmark data show that tide gauges typically do not record subsidence in the shallow subsurface and thus underestimate rates of relative sea-level rise. We present an alternative method of measuring relative sea-level rise and conclude that low-elevation coastal zones may be at higher risk of flooding than previously assumed.
Niall Gandy, Lauren J. Gregoire, Jeremy C. Ely, Christopher D. Clark, David M. Hodgson, Victoria Lee, Tom Bradwell, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
The Cryosphere, 12, 3635–3651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3635-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3635-2018, 2018
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We use the deglaciation of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet as a valuable case to examine the processes of contemporary ice sheet change, using an ice sheet model to simulate the Minch Ice Stream. We find that ice shelves were a control on retreat and that the Minch Ice Stream was vulnerable to the same marine mechanisms which threaten the future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This demonstrates the importance of marine processes when projecting the future of our contemporary ice sheets.
Taimaz Bahadory and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3883-2018, 2018
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We describe a new coupling between the Glacial Systems Model and the
LOVECLIM intermediate complexity climate model. The coupling is
distinguished from that of previous studies by greater completeness
and accuracy, with the intent of capturing the major feedbacks between
ice sheets and climate on glacial cycle timescales. The fully coupled
model will be used to examine the ice/climate phase space of past
glacial cycles.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Mark Kavanagh and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3497–3513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3497-2018, 2018
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We present and validate BrAHMs (BAsal Hydrology Model): a new
physically based basal hydrology model, which captures the two main
types of subglacial drainage systems (high-pressure distributed systems and
low-pressure channelized systems). BrAHMs is designed for continental
glacial cycle scale contexts, for which computational speed is
essential. This speed is accomplished, in part, by numerical methods
novel to basal hydrology contexts.
Milena Latinović, Volker Klemann, Christopher Irrgang, Meike Bagge, Sebastian Specht, and Maik Thomas
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-50, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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By using geological samples we are trying to validate the models that are reconstructing the sea level in the past 20 000 years. We applied proposed statistical method using 4 types of shells that were found in the area of the Hudson Bay on 140 members of model ensemble. After the comparison of the the results with studies from this area, we concluded that the method is suitable for validation of model ensemble based sea-level change caused by land movement of the Earth due to ice-age burden.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Ingo Sasgen, Alba Martín-Español, Alexander Horvath, Volker Klemann, Elizabeth J. Petrie, Bert Wouters, Martin Horwath, Roland Pail, Jonathan L. Bamber, Peter J. Clarke, Hannes Konrad, Terry Wilson, and Mark R. Drinkwater
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 493–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-493-2018, 2018
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We present a collection of data sets, consisting of surface-elevation rates for Antarctic ice sheet from a combination of Envisat and ICESat, bedrock uplift rates for 118 GPS sites in Antarctica, and optimally filtered GRACE gravity field rates. We provide viscoelastic response functions to a disc load forcing for Earth structures present in East and West Antarctica. This data collection enables a joint inversion for present-day ice-mass changes and glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica.
Mohammad Hizbul Bahar Arif, Lev Tarasov, and Tristan Hauser
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-276, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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This study is a first step answer to the following question: Can you
use emulators (machine learning techniques) to make the output of fast
simple climate models (a 2-D energy balance model in this test case)
indistinguishable from that of a much more computationally expensive
General Circulation climate model (GCM) within the uncertainties of
GCMs? Our preliminary test of this concept for large spatio-temporal
contexts gives a positive answer.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Marc P. Hijma, Zhixiong Shen, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, and Barbara Mauz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 689–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-689-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-689-2017, 2017
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We show that in the last 3 kyr the evolution of the Chenier Plain, >200 km west of the Mississippi Delta, was influenced by changes in the position of the main river mouth, local sediment sources and sea-level rise. This information can be used to constrain future generations of numerical models to obtain more robust predictions of the effects of improved sediment management and accelerated rates of relative sea-level rise on the evolution of mud-dominated coastal environments worldwide.
Christopher R. Esposito, Zhixiong Shen, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, Jonathan Marshak, and Christopher White
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 387–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-387-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-387-2017, 2017
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Our work presents a novel method of measuring the capacity of deltaic landforms to trap and retain river-borne sediments, and we demonstrate that sediment retention is closely connected to sedimentary composition. Our results, supported by a unique high-resolution coring dataset in a major crevasse splay, show that finer sediments are a much larger component of the Mississippi Delta than is often acknowledged and that their abundance indicates exceptionally high rates of sediment retention.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Masa Kageyama, Didier M. Roche, Paul J. Valdes, Andrea Burke, Rosemarie Drummond, W. Richard Peltier, and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016
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This manuscript presents the experiment design for the PMIP4 Last Deglaciation Core experiment: a transient simulation of the last deglaciation, 21–9 ka. Specified model boundary conditions include time-varying orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, ice meltwater fluxes and other geographical changes (provided for 26–0 ka). The context of the experiment and the choices for the boundary conditions are explained, along with the future direction of the working group.
Niamh Cahill, Andrew C. Kemp, Benjamin P. Horton, and Andrew C. Parnell
Clim. Past, 12, 525–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-525-2016, 2016
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We propose a Bayesian model for the reconstruction and analysis of former sea levels. The model provides a single, unifying framework for reconstructing and analyzing sea level through time with fully quantified uncertainty. We illustrate our approach using a case study of Common Era (last 2000 years) sea levels from New Jersey.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
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We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
K. Le Morzadec, L. Tarasov, M. Morlighem, and H. Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3199–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, 2015
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A long-term challenge for any model of complex large-scale processes
is accounting for the impact of unresolved sub-grid (SG) processes.
We quantify the impact of SG mass-balance and ice fluxes on glacial
cycle ensemble results for North America. We find no easy solutions to
accurately capture these impacts. We show that SG process
representation and associated parametric uncertainties can have
significant impact on coarse resolution model results for glacial
cycle ice sheet evolution.
H. Beltrami, G. S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath, and J. E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 10, 1693–1706, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, 2014
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
R. Briggs, D. Pollard, and L. Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 7, 1949–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, 2013
I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann
The Cryosphere, 7, 1499–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Marine Archives | Timescale: Pleistocene
Reorganization of Atlantic Waters at sub-polar latitudes linked to deep-water overflow in both glacial and interglacial climate states
Parallel between the isotopic composition of coccolith calcite and carbon levels across Termination II: developing a new paleo-CO2 probe
A global climatology of the ocean surface during the Last Glacial Maximum mapped on a regular grid (GLOMAP)
Contrasting late-glacial paleoceanographic evolution between the upper and lower continental slope of the western South Atlantic
Modal shift in North Atlantic seasonality during the last deglaciation
Technical note: PaleoDataView – a software toolbox for the collection, homogenization and visualization of marine proxy data
Sensitivity to species selection indicates the effect of nuisance variables on marine microfossil transfer functions
Insensitivity of alkenone carbon isotopes to atmospheric CO2 at low to moderate CO2 levels
Extreme lowering of deglacial seawater radiocarbon recorded by both epifaunal and infaunal benthic foraminifera in a wood-dated sediment core
A Late Quaternary climate record based on long-chain diol proxies from the Chilean margin
Moving beyond the age–depth model paradigm in deep-sea palaeoclimate archives: dual radiocarbon and stable isotope analysis on single foraminifera
Quantifying the effect of seasonal and vertical habitat tracking on planktonic foraminifera proxies
Water and carbon stable isotope records from natural archives: a new database and interactive online platform for data browsing, visualizing and downloading
Multiproxy reconstruction for Kuroshio responses to northern hemispheric oceanic climate and the Asian Monsoon since Marine Isotope Stage 5.1 (∼88 ka)
Hydrographic changes in the Agulhas Recirculation Region during the late Quaternary
Salinity changes in the Agulhas leakage area recorded by stable hydrogen isotopes of C37 alkenones during Termination I and II
Mismatch between the depth habitat of planktonic foraminifera and the calibration depth of SST transfer functions may bias reconstructions
Dakota E. Holmes, Tali L. Babila, Ulysses Ninnemann, Gordon Bromley, Shane Tyrrell, Greig A. Paterson, Michelle J. Curran, and Audrey Morley
Clim. Past, 18, 989–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-989-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-989-2022, 2022
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Our proxy-based observations of the glacial inception following MIS 11 advance our mechanistic understanding of (and elucidates antecedent conditions that can lead to) high-magnitude climate instability during low- and intermediate-ice boundary conditions. We find that irrespective of the magnitude of climate variability or boundary conditions, the reorganization between Polar Water and Atlantic Water at subpolar latitudes appears to influence deep-water flow in the Nordic Seas.
Camille Godbillot, Fabrice Minoletti, Franck Bassinot, and Michaël Hermoso
Clim. Past, 18, 449–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-449-2022, 2022
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We test a new method to reconstruct past atmospheric CO2 levels based on the geochemistry of pelagic algal biominerals (coccoliths), which recent culture and numerical experiments have related to ambient CO2 concentrations. By comparing the isotopic composition of fossil coccoliths to the inferred surface ocean CO2 level at the time they calcified, we outline a transfer function and argue that coccolith vital effects can be used to reconstruct geological pCO2 beyond the ice core record.
André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Rüdiger Stein, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021
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Maps and fields of near-sea-surface temperature differences between the past and present can be used to visualize and quantify climate changes and perform simulations with climate models. We used a statistical method to map sparse and scattered data for the Last Glacial Maximum time period (23 000 to 19 000 years before present) to a regular grid. The estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity in the lower to middle part of the currently accepted range.
Leticia G. Luz, Thiago P. Santos, Timothy I. Eglinton, Daniel Montluçon, Blanca Ausin, Negar Haghipour, Silvia M. Sousa, Renata H. Nagai, and Renato S. Carreira
Clim. Past, 16, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1245-2020, 2020
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Two sediment cores retrieved from the SE Brazilian continental margin were studied using multiple organic (alkenones) and inorganic (oxygen isotopes in carbonate shells and water) proxies to reconstruct the sea surface temperature (SST) over the last 50 000 years. The findings indicate the formation of strong thermal gradients in the region during the last climate transition, a feature that may become more frequent in the future scenario of global water circulation changes.
Geert-Jan A. Brummer, Brett Metcalfe, Wouter Feldmeijer, Maarten A. Prins, Jasmijn van 't Hoff, and Gerald M. Ganssen
Clim. Past, 16, 265–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-265-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-265-2020, 2020
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Here, mid-ocean seasonality is resolved through time, using differences in the oxygen isotope composition between individual shells of the commonly used (sub)polar planktonic foraminifera species in ocean-climate reconstruction, N. pachyderma and G. bulloides. Single-specimen isotope measurements during the deglacial period revealed a surprising bimodality, the cause of which was investigated.
Michael Langner and Stefan Mulitza
Clim. Past, 15, 2067–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-2067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-2067-2019, 2019
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Collections of paleoclimate data provide valuable information on the functioning of the Earth system but are often difficult to manage due to the inconsistency of data formats and reconstruction methods. We present a software toolbox that combines a simple document-based database with functionality for the visualization and management of marine proxy data. The program allows the efficient homogenization of larger paleoceanographic data sets into quality-controlled and transparent data products.
Lukas Jonkers and Michal Kučera
Clim. Past, 15, 881–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-881-2019, 2019
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Fossil plankton assemblages have been widely used to reconstruct SST. In such approaches, full taxonomic resolution is often used. We assess whether this is required for reliable reconstructions as some species may not respond to SST. We find that only a few species are needed for low reconstruction errors but that species selection has a pronounced effect on reconstructions. We suggest that the sensitivity of a reconstruction to species pruning can be used as a measure of its robustness.
Marcus P. S. Badger, Thomas B. Chalk, Gavin L. Foster, Paul R. Bown, Samantha J. Gibbs, Philip F. Sexton, Daniela N. Schmidt, Heiko Pälike, Andreas Mackensen, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 15, 539–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-539-2019, 2019
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Understanding how atmospheric CO2 has affected the climate of the past is an important way of furthering our understanding of how CO2 may affect our climate in the future. There are several ways of determining CO2 in the past; in this paper, we ground-truth one method (based on preserved organic matter from alga) against the record of CO2 preserved as bubbles in ice cores over a glacial–interglacial cycle. We find that there is a discrepancy between the two.
Patrick A. Rafter, Juan-Carlos Herguera, and John R. Southon
Clim. Past, 14, 1977–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1977-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1977-2018, 2018
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Carbon’s radioactive isotope (radiocarbon) is a useful tool for oceanographers investigating carbon cycling in the modern ocean and ice age oceans (using foraminifera microfossils). Here we used sediment cores with excellent age constraints and abundant foraminifera microfossils to examine interspecies radiocarbon differences. All species demonstrate the same extreme radiocarbon depletion, and we argue that these observations represent important changes in seawater carbon chemistry.
Marijke W. de Bar, Dave J. Stolwijk, Jerry F. McManus, Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté, and Stefan Schouten
Clim. Past, 14, 1783–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1783-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1783-2018, 2018
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We present a past sea surface temperature and paleoproductivity record over the last 150 000 years for ODP Site 1234 (Chilean margin). We tested the applicability of long-chain diol proxies for the reconstrucion of SST (LDI), past upwelling conditions (diol index), and nutrient concentrations (NDI). The LDI likely reflects past temperature changes, but the diol index and NDI are perhaps more indicative of Proboscia diatom productivity rather than upwelling and/or nutrient conditions.
Bryan C. Lougheed, Brett Metcalfe, Ulysses S. Ninnemann, and Lukas Wacker
Clim. Past, 14, 515–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-515-2018, 2018
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions from deep-sea sediment archives provide valuable insight into past rapid climate change, but only a small proportion of the ocean is suitable for such reconstructions using the existing state of the art, i.e. the age–depth approach. We use dual radiocarbon (14C) and stable isotope analysis on single foraminifera to bypass the long-standing age–depth approach, thus facilitating past ocean chemistry reconstructions from vast, previously untapped ocean areas.
Lukas Jonkers and Michal Kučera
Clim. Past, 13, 573–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-573-2017, 2017
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Planktonic foraminifera – the most important proxy carriers in palaeoceanography – adjust their seasonal and vertical habitat. They are thought to do so in a way that minimises the change in their environment, implying that proxy records based on these organisms may not capture the full amplitude of past climate change. Here we demonstrate that they indeed track a particular thermal habitat and suggest that this could lead to a 40 % underestimation of reconstructed temperature change.
Timothé Bolliet, Patrick Brockmann, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Franck Bassinot, Valérie Daux, Dominique Genty, Amaelle Landais, Marlène Lavrieux, Elisabeth Michel, Pablo Ortega, Camille Risi, Didier M. Roche, Françoise Vimeux, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past, 12, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a new database of past climate proxies which aims to facilitate the distribution of data by using a user-friendly interface. Available data from the last 40 years are often fragmented, with lots of different formats, and online libraries are sometimes nonintuitive. We thus built a new dynamic web portal for data browsing, visualizing, and batch downloading of hundreds of datasets presenting a homogeneous format.
X. Shi, Y. Wu, J. Zou, Y. Liu, S. Ge, M. Zhao, J. Liu, A. Zhu, X. Meng, Z. Yao, and Y. Han
Clim. Past, 10, 1735–1750, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1735-2014, 2014
D. K. Naik, R. Saraswat, N. Khare, A. C. Pandey, and R. Nigam
Clim. Past, 10, 745–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-745-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-745-2014, 2014
S. Kasper, M. T. J. van der Meer, A. Mets, R. Zahn, J. S. Sinninghe Damsté, and S. Schouten
Clim. Past, 10, 251–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-251-2014, 2014
R. J. Telford, C. Li, and M. Kucera
Clim. Past, 9, 859–870, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-859-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-859-2013, 2013
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Short summary
This review/position paper addresses problems in creating new interdisciplinary databases for palaeo-climatological sea-level and ice-sheet data and gives an overview on new advances to tackle them. The focus therein is to define and explain strategies and highlight their importance to allow further progress in these fields. It also offers important insights into the general problem of designing competitive databases which are also applicable to other communities within the palaeo-environment.
This review/position paper addresses problems in creating new interdisciplinary databases for...
