Articles | Volume 9, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Dec 2013
Research article |
| 06 Dec 2013
Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study
A. Mairesse
Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Place Louis Pasteur, 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
H. Goosse
Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Place Louis Pasteur, 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
P. Mathiot
British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK
H. Wanner
Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
S. Dubinkina
Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Place Louis Pasteur, 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Related authors
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
Marie Genevieve Paule Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores in East Antarctica show contrasting records of past snowfall. We tested if large-scale weather patterns could explain this by combining ice core data with an atmospheric model and radar-derived errors. However, the reconstruction produced unrealistic wind patterns to fit the ice core records. We suggest that uncertainties are not fully captured and that small-scale local wind effects, not represented in the model, could significantly influence snowfall records in the ice cores.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Sangeetika Ruchi, Svetlana Dubinkina, and Jana de Wiljes
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-23-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-23-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To infer information of an unknown quantity that helps to understand an associated system better and to predict future outcomes, observations and a physical model that connects the data points to the unknown parameter are typically used as information sources. Yet this problem is often very challenging due to the fact that the unknown is generally high dimensional, the data are sparse and the model can be non-linear. We propose a novel approach to address these challenges.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Sangeetika Ruchi and Svetlana Dubinkina
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 731–746, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-731-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-731-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate estimation of subsurface geological parameters is essential for the oil industry. This is done by combining observations with an estimation from a model. Ensemble Kalman filter is a widely used method for inverse modeling, while ensemble transform particle filtering is a recently developed method that has been applied to estimate only a small number of parameters and in fluids. We show that for a high-dimensional inverse problem it is superior to an ensemble Kalman filter.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
P. Michna, W. Eugster, R. V. Hiller, M. J. Zeeman, and H. Wanner
Geogr. Helv., 68, 249–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-68-249-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-68-249-2013, 2013
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
A global Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns from 21 000–0 BP (DAMP-21ka) using lake level proxy records
New probabilistic methods for quantitative climate reconstructions applied to palynological data from Lake Kinneret
Internal climate variability and spatial temperature correlations during the past 2000 years
Mid-Holocene climate change over China: model–data discrepancy
The 4.2 ka BP event in the Levant
Climate change and ecosystems dynamics over the last 6000 years in the Middle Atlas, Morocco
The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene– comparison of different transient climate model simulations
Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation
Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene
Proxy benchmarks for intercomparison of 8.2 ka simulations
Influence of orbital forcing and solar activity on water isotopes in precipitation during the mid- and late Holocene
Simulated oxygen isotopes in cave drip water and speleothem calcite in European caves
Mechanisms for European summer temperature response to solar forcing over the last millennium
Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks
On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change
Christopher L. Hancock, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Sylvia G. Dee, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Clim. Past, 20, 2663–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data–model disagreement in east Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns, as well as orbital forcing, are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
Timon Netzel, Andrea Miebach, Thomas Litt, and Andreas Hense
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1790, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
New probabilistic methods for local quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions are presented in a Bayesian framework and applied to plant proxy data from Lake Kinneret. We use recent climate data and arboreal pollen from the sediment of this lake as predefined boundary conditions. The result shows a climate reconstruction of the mean December–February temperature and annual precipitation with the corresponding uncertainty ranges during the Holocene in this region.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Yating Lin, Gilles Ramstein, Haibin Wu, Raj Rani, Pascale Braconnot, Masa Kageyama, Qin Li, Yunli Luo, Ran Zhang, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 15, 1223–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Holocene has been an excellent target for comparing models and data. This work shows that, over China, all the ocean–atmosphere general circulation models involved in PMIP3 show a very large discrepancy with pollen data reconstruction when comparing annual and seasonal temperature. It demonstrates that to reconcile models and data and to capture the signature of seasonal thermal response, it is necessary to integrate non-linear processes, particularly those related to vegetation changes.
David Kaniewski, Nick Marriner, Rachid Cheddadi, Joël Guiot, and Elise Van Campo
Clim. Past, 14, 1529–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1529-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1529-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Studies have long suggested that a protracted drought phase, termed the 4.2 ka BP event, directly impacted subsistence systems (dry farming agro-production, pastoral nomadism, and fishing) and outlying nomad habitats, forcing rain-fed cereal agriculturalists into habitat-tracking when agro-innovations were not available. Here, we focus on this crucial period to examine whether drought was active in the eastern Mediterranean Old World, especially in the Levant.
Majda Nourelbait, Ali Rhoujjati, Abdelfattah Benkaddour, Matthieu Carré, Frederique Eynaud, Philippe Martinez, and Rachid Cheddadi
Clim. Past, 12, 1029–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1029-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1029-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The present study is related the climate changes and their environmental impacts during the last 6 ky from a fossil record collected in the Middle Atlas, Morocco. We used the reconstruction of three climate variables and geo-chemical elements to evaluate the relationships between all the environmental variables. In summary, this present study confirms the overall climate stability over the last 6 ky and highlights the presence of a short and abrupt climate event at about 5.2 ka cal BP.
A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, N. Fischer, K. Haberkorn, S. Wagner, M. Pfeiffer, L. Jin, V. Khon, Y. Wang, and U. Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 11, 305–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, 2015
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, D. M. Anderson, B. A. Bauer, R. Buckner, E. P. Gille, W. S. Gross, M. Hartman, and A. Shah
Clim. Past, 9, 423–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-423-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, G. Lohmann, S. Riechelmann, A. Borsato, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 8, 1781–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1781-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1781-2012, 2012
D. Swingedouw, L. Terray, J. Servonnat, and J. Guiot
Clim. Past, 8, 1487–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1487-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1487-2012, 2012
M.-J. Gaillard, S. Sugita, F. Mazier, A.-K. Trondman, A. Broström, T. Hickler, J. O. Kaplan, E. Kjellström, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, C. Lemmen, P. Miller, J. Olofsson, A. Poska, M. Rundgren, B. Smith, G. Strandberg, R. Fyfe, A. B. Nielsen, T. Alenius, L. Balakauskas, L. Barnekow, H. J. B. Birks, A. Bjune, L. Björkman, T. Giesecke, K. Hjelle, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, T. Koff, P. Lagerås, M. Latałowa, M. Leydet, J. Lechterbeck, M. Lindbladh, B. Odgaard, S. Peglar, U. Segerström, H. von Stedingk, and H. Seppä
Clim. Past, 6, 483–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-483-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-483-2010, 2010
J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan
Clim. Past, 5, 803–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-803-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-803-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Andreev, A. A., Tarasov, P. E., Siegert, C., Ebel, T., Klimanov, V. A., Melles, M., Bobrov, A. A., Dereviagin, A. Y., Lubinski, D. J., and Hubberten, H.-W.: Late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation and climate on the northern Taymyr Peninsula, Arctic Russia, Boreas, 32, 484–505, 2003.
Antonsson, K., Brooks, S. J., Seppä, H., Telford, R. J., and Birks, H. J. B.: Quantitative palaeotemperature records inferred from fossil pollen and chironomid assemblages from Lake Gilltjärnen, northern central Sweden, J. Quaternary Sci., 21, 831–841, 2006.
Barron, J. A., Heusser, L., Herbert, T., and Lyle, M.: High-resolution climatic evolution of coastal northern California during the past 16,000 years, Paleoceanography, 18, 1020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002PA000768, 2003.
Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Brewer, S., Connor, S., Davis, B. A. S., Gajewski, K., Guiot, J., Harrison-Prentice, T. I., Henderson, A., Peyron, O., Prentice, I. C., Scholze, M., Seppä, H., Shuman, B., Sugita, S., Thompson, R. S., Viau, A. E., Williams, J., and Wu, H.: Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis, Clim. Dynam., 37, 775–802, 2011.
Bendle, J. and Rosell-Melé, A.: High-resolution alkenone sea surface temperature variability on the North Icelandic Shelf: implications for Nordic Seas palaeoclimatic development during the Holocene, The Holocene, 17, 9–24, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683607073269, 2007.
Berger, A.: Long-term variations of daily insolation and quaternary climatic changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367, 1978.
Birks, H., Heiri, O., Seppä, H., and Bjune, A.: Strengths and weaknesses of quantitative climate reconstructions based on late-Quaternary biological proxies, Open Ecol. J., 3, 68–110, 2010.
Boer, G.: The ratio of land to ocean temperature change under global warming, Clim. Dynam., 37, 2253–2270, 2011.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007a.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high latitudes heat budget, Clim. Past, 3, 279–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-279-2007, 2007b.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417–424, 2012.
Brewer, S., Guiot, J., and Barboni, D.: Pollen methods and studies: use of pollen as climate proxies, in: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science, edited by: Elias, S. A., Elsevier, Oxford, 2497–2508, 2007a.
Brewer, S., Guiot, J., and Torre, F.: Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison, Clim. Past, 3, 499–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-499-2007, 2007b.
Brook, E. J.: Ice core methods: overview, in: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science, edited by: Elias, S. A., Elsevier, Oxford, 2497–2508, 2007.
Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., and Svirezhev, Y.: A continuous climate-vegetation classification for use in climate-biosphere studies, Ecol. Model., 101, 251–261, 1997.
Calvo, E., Grimalt, J., and Jansen, E.: High resolution U^K37 sea surface temperature reconstruction in the Norwegian Sea during the Holocene, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 1385–1394, 2002.
Claussen, M., Kubatzki, C., Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Hoelzmann, P., and Pachur, H.: Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation in the mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2037–2040, 1999.
Clegg, B. F., Clarke, G. H., Chipman, M. L., Chou, M., Walker, I. R., Tinner, W., and Hu, F. S.: Six millennia of summer temperature variation based on midge analysis of lake sediments from Alaska, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 3308–3316, 2010.
Crespin, E., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., Mairesse, A., and Sallaz-Damaz, Y.: Arctic climate over the past millennium: annual and seasonal responses to external forcings, The Holocene, 23, 321–329, 2013.
Crucifix, M.: Modelling the climate of the Holocene, in: Natural Climate variability and Global Warming: a Holocene Perspective, edited by: Battarbee, R. W. and Binney, H., Wiley-Blackwell, 98–122, Oxford, UK, 2008.
Davis, B. A. S., Brewer, S., Stevenson, A. C., and Guiot, J.: The temperature of Europe during the Holocene reconstructed from pollen data, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 22, 1701–1716, 2003.
deMenocal, P., Ortiz, J., Guilderson, T., and Sarnthein, M.: Coherent high- and low-latitude climate variability during the Holocene warm period, Science, 288, 2198–2202, 2000.
Dubinkina, S., Goosse, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Crespin, E., and Crucifix, M.: Testing a particle filter to reconstruct climate changes over past centuries, Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos, 21, 3611–3618, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127411030763, 2011.
Esparza, M.: E}studi de la variabilitat climàtica de l'oceà Atlàntic nord durant l'holocè mitjan{\c cant biomarcadors moleculars, Master's thesis, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Faculty of Sciences, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Barcelona, Spain, 2005.
Flückiger, J., Monnin, E., Stauffer, B., Schwander, J., Stocker, T. F., Chappellaz, J., Raynaud, D., and Barnola, J.-M.: High-resolution Holocene N2O ice core record and its relationship with CH4 and CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 10-1–10-8, 2002.
Gladstone, R., Ross, I., Valdes, P., Abe-Ouchi, A., Braconnot, P., Brewer, S., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Legrande, A., Marti, O., Otto-Bliesner, B., Peltier, W. R., and Vettoretti, G.: Mid-Holocene NAO: a PMIP2 model intercomparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023596, 2005.
Goosse, H. and Fichefet, T.: Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: a model study, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 23337–23355, 1999.
Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Bradley, R. S., and Mann, M. E.: Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, Clim. Dynam., 27, 165–184, 2006.
Goosse, H., Brovkin, V., Fichefet, T., Haarsma, R., Huybrechts, P., Jongma, J., Mouchet, A., Selten, F., Barriat, P.-Y., Campin, J.-M., Deleersnijder, E., Driesschaert, E., Goelzer, H., Janssens, I., Loutre, M.-F., Morales Maqueda, M. A., Opsteegh, T., Mathieu, P.-P., Munhoven, G., Pettersson, E. J., Renssen, H., Roche, D. M., Schaeffer, M., Tartinville, B., Timmermann, A., and Weber, S. L.: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010, 2010.
Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M.-F., Mann, M. E., Renssen, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., and Shindell, D.: The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the "Medieval Climate Anomaly", Clim. Dynam., 39, 2847–2866, 2012.
Grimalt, J. and Lopez, J.: Paleoceanography, biological proxies: alkenone paleothermometry from coccoliths, in: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science, edited by: Elias, S. A., Elsevier, Oxford, 1610–1618, 2007.
Guiot, J., Boreux, J.-J., Braconnot, P., and Torre, F.: Data-model comparison using fuzzy logic in paleoclimatology, Clim. Dynam., 15, 569–581, 1999.
Harada, N., Ahagon, N., Sakamoto, T., Uchida, M., Ikehara, M., and Shibata, Y.: Rapid fluctuation of alkenone temperature in the southwestern Okhotsk Sea during the past 120 ky, Global Planet. Change, 53, 29–46, 2006.
Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D., Ohgaito, R., Paul, A., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene, Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, 2013.
Heikkilä, M. and Seppä, H.: A 11,000 yr palaeotemperature reconstruction from the southern boreal zone in Finland, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 22, 541–554, 2003.
Herbert, T.: Alkenone paleotemperature determinations, in: Treatise on Geochemistry, edited by: Holland, H. D. and Turekian, K. K., Pergamon, Oxford, 391–432, 2003.
Isono, D., Yamamoto, M., Irino, T., Oba, T., Murayama, M., Nakamura, T., and Kawahata, H.: The 1500-year climate oscillation in the midlatitude North Pacific during the Holocene, Geology, 37, 591, https://doi.org/10.1130/G25667A.1, 2009.
Jian, Z., Wang, P., Saito, Y., Wang, J., Pflaumann, U., Oba, T., and Cheng, X.: Holocene variability of the Kuroshio Current in the Okinawa Trough, northwestern Pacific Ocean, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 184, 305–319, 2000.
Joshi, M. M., Lambert, F.H., and Webb, M. J.: An explanation for the difference between twentieth and twenty-first century land–sea warming ratio in climate models, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1853–1869, 2013.
Juggins, S.: Quantitative reconstructions in palaeolimnology: new paradigm or sick science?, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 64, 20–32, 2013.
Kim, J., Meggers, H., Rimbu, N., Lohmann, G., Freudenthal, T., Müller, P., and Schneider, R.: Impacts of the North Atlantic gyre circulation on Holocene climate off northwest Africa, Geology, 35, 387, https://doi.org/10.1130/G23251A.1, 2007.
Lauritzen, S. and Lundberg, J.: Calibration of the speleothem delta function: an absolute temperature record for the Holocene in northern Norway, The Holocene, 9, 659, https://doi.org/10.1191/095968399667823929, 1999.
Leduc, G., Schneider, R., Kim, J.-H., and Lohmann, G.: Holocene and Eemian sea surface temperature trends as revealed by alkenone and Mg/Ca paleothermometry, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 989–1004, 2010.
Lohmann, G., Pfeiffer, M., Laepple, T., Leduc, G., and Kim, J.-H.: A model-data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution, Clim. Past, 9, 1807–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1807-2013, 2013.
Lorenz, S. J., Kim, J.-H., Rimbu, N., Schneider, R. R., and Lohmann, G: Orbitally driven insolation forcing on Holocene climate trends: Evidence from alkenone data and climate modeling, Paleoceanography, 21, PA1002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005PA001152, 2006.
Marcott, S. A., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., and Mix, A. C.: A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, 339, 1198–1201, 2013.
Marsland, S., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Latif, M., and Röske, F.: The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates, Ocean Model., 5, 91–127, 2003.
Martrat, B.: Studies of sedimentary organic matter to infer rapid climatic changes at the Barents and Iberian continental margins on centennial time resolution over the past four climate cycles of the Quaternary (ca. 420,000 years), Ph. D. thesis, UPC, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain, 2007.
Martrat, B., Grimalt, J., Shackleton, N., de Abreu, L., Hutterli, M., and Stocker, T.: Four climate cycles of recurring deep and surface water destabilizations on the Iberian margin, Science, 317, 502–507, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139994, 2007.
Mathiot, P., Goosse, H., Crosta, X., Stenni, B., Braida, M., Renssen, H., Van Meerbeeck, C. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mairesse, A., and Dubinkina, S.: Using data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP, Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013.
Mock, C. J.: Paleoclimate: introduction, why study paleoclimatology ?, in: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science, edited: by Elias, S. A., Elsevier, 1867–1872, Oxford, UK, 2007.
Müller, P. J., Kirst, G., Ruhland, G., von Storch, I., and Rosell-Melé, A.: Calibration of the alkenone paleotemperature index U$^37_K$ based on core-tops from the eastern South Atlantic and the global ocean (60° N–60° S), Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 62, 1757–1772, 1998.
Ohlwein, C. and Wahl, E.: Review of probabilistic pollen-climate transfer methods, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 31, 17–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.11.002, 2011.
Opsteegh, J. D., Haarsma, R. J., Selten, F. M., and Kattenberg, A.: ECBILT: a dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models, Tellus A, 50, 348–367, 1998.
Ortiz, J. D.: Paleoceanography, biological proxies: temperature proxies, census counts, in: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science, edited by: Elias, S. A., Elsevier, Oxford, 1692–1699, 2007.
Pelejero, C., Grimalt, J., Heilig, S., Kienast, M., and Wang, L.: High-resolution UK37 temperature reconstructions in the South China Sea over the past 220 kyr, Paleoceanography, 14, 224–231, 1999.
Peltier, W.: Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth: the ICE}-5G ({VM2) model and GRACE, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 32, 111–149, 2004.
Peros, M. and Gajewski, K.: Holocene climate and vegetation change on Victoria Island, western Canadian Arctic, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 235–249, 2008.
Phipps, S. J., Rotstayn, L. D., Gordon, H. B., Roberts, J. L., Hirst, A. C., and Budd, W. F.: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-483-2011, 2011.
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R.: Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years, Nature, 458, 329–332, 2009.
Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Knorr, W., Kattge, J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Schnitzler, K.-G., Wetzel, P., and Jungclaus, J.: Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate-carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century ?, Clim. Dynam., 29, 565–574, 2007.
Renssen, H., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., Brovkin, V., Driesschaert, E., and Wolk, F.: Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model, Clim. Dynam., 24, 23–43, 2005.
Renssen, H., Seppä, H., Heiri, O., Roche, D., Goosse, H., and Fichefet, T.: The spatial and temporal complexity of the Holocene thermal maximum, Nat. Geosci., 2, 411–414, 2009.
Renssen, H., Seppä, H., Crosta, X., Goosse, H., and Roche, D.: Global characterization of the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 48, 7–19, 2012.
Rimbu, N., Lohmann, G., Kim, J.-H., Arz, H. W., and Schneider, R.: Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation signature in Holocene sea surface temperature trends as obtained from alkenone data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1280, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016570, 2003.
Risebrobakken, B., Jansen, E., Andersson, C., Mjelde, E., and Hevrøy, K.: A high-resolution study of Holocene paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic changes in the Nordic Seas, Paleoceanography, 18, 1017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002PA000764, 2003.
Rodrigues, T., Grimalt, J., Abrantes, F., Flores, J., and Lebreiro, S.: Holocene interdependences of changes in sea surface temperature, productivity, and fluvial inputs in the Iberian continental shelf (Tagus mud patch), Geochem. Geophys. Geosys., 10, Q07U06, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GC002367, 2009.
Sachs, J. P.: Cooling of Northwest Atlantic slope waters during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03609, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028495, 2007.
Samtleben, C. and Bickert, T.: Coccoliths in sediment traps from the Norwegian Sea, Mar. Micropaleontol., 16, 39–64, 1990.
Sarmaja-Korjonen, K. and Seppä, H.: Abrupt and consistent responses of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems to the 8200 cal. yr cold event: a lacustrine record from Lake Arapisto, Finland, The Holocene, 17, 457–467, 2007.
Schneider, B., Leduc, G., and Park, W.: Disentangling seasonal signals in Holocene climate trends by satellite-model-proxy integration, Paleoceanography, 25, PA4217, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009PA001893, 2010.
Seppä, H. and Birks, H.: July mean temperature and annual precipitation trends during the Holocene in the Fennoscandian tree-line area: pollen-based climate reconstructions, The Holocene, 11, 527–539, 2001.
Seppä, H. and Birks, H.: Holocene climate reconstructions from the Fennoscandian tree-line area based on pollen data from Toskaijavri, Quaternary Res., 57, 191–199, 2002.
Seppä, H. and Poska, A.: Holocene annual mean temperature changes in Estonia and their relationship to solar insolation and atmospheric circulation patterns, Quaternary Res., 61, 22–31, 2004.
Seppä, H., Hammarlund, D., and Antonsson, K.: Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate, Clim. Dynam., 25, 285–297, 2005.
Tarasov, P. E., Bezrukova, E. V., and Krivonogov, S. K.: Late Glacial and Holocene changes in vegetation cover and climate in southern Siberia derived from a 15 kyr long pollen record from Lake Kotokel, Clim. Past, 5, 285–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-285-2009, 2009.
Telford, R. and Birks, H.: The secret assumption of transfer functions: problems with spatial autocorrelation in evaluating model performance, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 24, 2173–2179, 2005.
Thomsen, C., Schulz-Bull, D., Petrick, G., and Duinker, J.: Seasonal variability of the long-chain alkenone flux and the effect on the U$_k^37$-index in the Norwegian Sea, Org. Geochem., 28, 311–323, 1998.
Thornalley, D., Elderfield, H., and McCave, I.: Holocene oscillations in temperature and salinity of the surface subpolar North Atlantic, Nature, 457, 711–714, 2009.
Viau, A. E. and Gajewski, K.: Reconstructing millennial-scale, regional paleoclimates of Boreal Canada during the Holocene., J. Climate, 22, 316–330, 2009.
Vinther, B., Buchardt, S., Clausen, H., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S., Fisher, D., Koerner, R., Raynaud, D., Lipenkov, V., and Andersen, K.: Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet, Nature, 461, 385–388, 2009.
Wanner, H., Beer, J., Bütikofer, J., Crowley, T., Cubasch, U., Flückiger, J., Goosse, H., Grosjean, M., Joos, F., Kaplan, J., Küttel, M., Müller, S., Prentice, I., Solomina, O., Stocker, T., Tarasov, P., Wagner, M., and Widmann, M.: Mid-to Late Holocene climate change: an overview, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 1791–1828, 2008.
Zhao, Y., Braconnot, P., Marti, O., Harrison, S., Hewitt, C., Kitoh, A., Liu, Z., Mikolajewicz, U., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Weber, S.: A multi-model analysis of the role of the ocean on the African and Indian monsoon during the mid-Holocene, Clim. Dynam., 25, 777–800, 2005.
