Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-265-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-265-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
| 
09 Feb 2012
Review article |
| 09 Feb 2012
Inferences on weather extremes and weather-related disasters: a review of statistical methods
H. Visser
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
A. C. Petersen
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, UK
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Instrumental Period
Air temperature changes in SW Greenland in the second half of the 18th century
Early 20th century Southern Hemisphere cooling
Precipitation reconstructions for Paris based on the observations by Louis Morin, 1665–1713 CE
Earliest meteorological readings in San Fernando (Cádiz, Spain, 1799–1813)
The weather diaries of the Kirch family: Leipzig, Guben, and Berlin (1677–1774)
Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate
A 258-year-long data set of temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland since 1763
Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89
Insights from 20 years of temperature parallel measurements in Mauritius around the turn of the 20th century
Unlocking weather observations from the Societas Meteorologica Palatina (1781–1792)
The 1921 European drought: impacts, reconstruction and drivers
The importance of input data quality and quantity in climate field reconstructions – results from the assimilation of various tree-ring collections
Reconstruction of the track and a simulation of the storm surge associated with the calamitous typhoon affecting the Pearl River Estuary in September 1874
Early instrumental meteorological measurements in Switzerland
The "dirty weather" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839–1851
A collection of sub-daily pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period with a focus on the "year without a summer" 1816
East Asian Monsoon controls on the inter-annual variability in precipitation isotope ratio in Japan
Investigating uncertainties in global gridded datasets of climate extremes
HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring
Pairwise homogeneity assessment of HadISD
Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785
HadISDH: an updateable land surface specific humidity product for climate monitoring
Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe using analog-upscaling
Early Portuguese meteorological measurements (18th century)
Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland
Benchmarking homogenization algorithms for monthly data
The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature
Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis
The influence of the circulation on surface temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe
Rajmund Przybylak, Garima Singh, Przemysław Wyszyński, Andrzej Araźny, and Konrad Chmist
Clim. Past, 20, 1451–1470, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1451-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1451-2024, 2024
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The purpose of this study is to recognise the nature of the climate in historical times (second half of 18th century) in Greenland. Such knowledge is important for validating Greenland temperature reconstructions based on both modelling works and various proxies. The two unique series of old meteorological observations from Greenland we used indicated that temperature in the study period was comparable to that of the early 20th-century Arctic warming but lower than that of the present day.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefan Brönnimann, Yuri Brugnara, and Clive Wilkinson
Clim. Past, 20, 757–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-757-2024, 2024
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The early 20th century warming – the first phase of global warming in the 20th century – started from a peculiar cold state around 1910. We digitised additional ship logbooks for these years to study this specific climate state and found that it is real and likely an overlap of several climatic anomalies, including oceanic variability (La Niña) and volcanic eruptions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Pliemon, Ulrich Foelsche, Christian Rohr, and Christian Pfister
Clim. Past, 19, 2237–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2237-2023, 2023
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Louis Morin consistently recorded precipitation intensity and duration between 1665 and 1713. We use these records to reconstruct precipitation totals. This reconstruction is validated by several methods and then presented using precipitation indexes. What is exceptional about this dataset is the availability of a sub-daily resolution and the low number of missing data points over the entire observation period.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nieves Bravo-Paredes, María Cruz Gallego, Ricardo M. Trigo, and José Manuel Vaquero
Clim. Past, 19, 1397–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023, 2023
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We present the earliest records made in San Fernando, very close to Cádiz (SW Spain). Several previous works have already recovered a significant number of meteorological records of interest in these localities. However, more than 40 000 daily meteorological observations recorded at the Royal Observatory of the Spanish Navy (located in San Fernando) were previously unnoticed and remained neither digitized nor studied. We analyze in detail these newly recovered meteorological readings.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefan Brönnimann and Yuri Brugnara
Clim. Past, 19, 1435–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1435-2023, 2023
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We present the weather diaries of the Kirch family from 1677–1774 containing weather observations made in Leipzig and Guben and, from 1701 onward, instrumental observations made in Berlin. We publish the imaged diaries (10 445 images) and the digitized measurements (from 1720 onward). This is one of the oldest and longest meteorological records from Germany. The digitized pressure data show good agreement with neighbouring stations, highlighting their potential for weather reconstruction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Noemi Imfeld, Lucas Pfister, Yuri Brugnara, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 19, 703–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-703-2023, 2023
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Climate reconstructions give insights into monthly and seasonal climate variability of the past few hundred years. However, to understand past extreme weather events and to relate them to impacts, for example to periods of extreme floods, reconstructions on a daily timescale are needed. Here, we present a reconstruction of 258 years of high-resolution daily temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland covering the period 1763 to 2020, which is based on instrumental measurements.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Duncan Pappert, Mariano Barriendos, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, Sylvie Jourdain, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2545–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2545-2022, 2022
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We present daily temperature and sea level pressure fields for Europe for the severe winter 1788/1789 based on historical meteorological measurements and an analogue reconstruction approach. The resulting reconstruction skilfully reproduces temperature and pressure variations over central and western Europe. We find intense blocking systems over northern Europe and several abrupt, strong cold air outbreaks, demonstrating that quantitative weather reconstruction of past extremes is possible.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Samuel O. Awe, Martin Mahony, Edley Michaud, Conor Murphy, Simon J. Noone, Victor K. C. Venema, Thomas G. Thorne, and Peter W. Thorne
Clim. Past, 18, 793–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, 2022
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We unearth and analyse 2 decades of highly valuable measurements made on Mauritius at the Royal Alfred Observatory, where several distinct thermometer combinations were in use and compared, at the turn of the 20th century. This series provides unique insights into biases in early instrumental temperature records. Differences are substantial and for some instruments exhibit strong seasonality. This reinforces the critical importance of understanding early instrumental series biases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Duncan Pappert, Yuri Brugnara, Sylvie Jourdain, Aleksandra Pospieszyńska, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 17, 2361–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2361-2021, 2021
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This paper presents temperature and pressure measurements from the 37 stations of the late 18th century network of the Societas Meteorologica Palatina, in addition to providing an inventory of the available observations, most of which have been digitised. The quality of the recovered series is relatively good, as demonstrated by two case studies. Early instrumental data such as these will help to explore past climate and weather extremes in Europe in greater detail.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
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The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Stefan Brönnimann, Raphael Neukom, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 16, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, 2020
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This study explores the influence of the input data choice on spatial climate reconstructions. We compare three tree-ring-based data sets which range from small sample size, small spatial coverage and strict screening for temperature sensitivity to the opposite. We achieve the best spatial reconstruction quality by combining all available input data but rejecting records with little and uncertain climatic information and considering moisture availability as an additional growth limitation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hing Yim Mok, Wing Hong Lui, Dick Shum Lau, and Wang Chun Woo
Clim. Past, 16, 51–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-51-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-51-2020, 2020
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Using available information from historical documents, the maximum storm surge and storm tide at Hong Kong during the passage of a typhoon in 1874 were determined by reconstructing the possible typhoon track and found to be higher than all existing records since the 1883 establishment of the Hong Kong Observatory. This reveals that a more detailed frequency analysis of extreme sea levels taking the 1874 typhoon into account is essential for realistic storm surge risk assessments in Hong Kong.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lucas Pfister, Franziska Hupfer, Yuri Brugnara, Lukas Munz, Leonie Villiger, Lukas Meyer, Mikhaël Schwander, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 15, 1345–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1345-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1345-2019, 2019
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The 18th and early 19th centuries saw pronounced climatic variations with impacts on the environment and society. Although instrumental meteorological data for that period exist, only a small fraction has been the subject of research. This study provides an overview of early instrumental meteorological records in Switzerland resulting from an archive survey and demonstrates the great potential of such data. It is accompanied by the online publication of the imaged data series and metadata.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrew M. Lorrey and Petra R. Chappell
Clim. Past, 12, 553–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-553-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-553-2016, 2016
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The meteorological diary of Reverend Richard Davis (1839–1844; 1848–1851) is the earliest continuous daily instrumental weather observation record for New Zealand. It pre-dates James Hector's meteorological network by more than 20 years, and it contains evidence that temperatures for May–August were on average colder than present day in Northland. Some weather extremes Davis also witnessed may have been more frequent in the mid-1800s relative to the modern era, including frost, ice and snow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
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A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
N. Kurita, Y. Fujiyoshi, T. Nakayama, Y. Matsumi, and H. Kitagawa
Clim. Past, 11, 339–353, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-339-2015, 2015
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This study demonstrates that the intensity of the East Asian summer and winter monsoon is the primary driver of variations of summer and winter precipitation isotopes in central Japan. Japan lies in the northeast limits of the East Asian monsoon region. Understanding the past monsoon changes in Japan is important for determining whether the isotopic variability recorded in Chinese stalagmite reflects the East Asian summer monsoon intensity or rainfall variability in the Indian summer monsoon.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
R. J. H. Dunn, M. G. Donat, and L. V. Alexander
Clim. Past, 10, 2171–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2171-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2171-2014, 2014
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Observational data sets contain uncertainties, e.g. from the instrument accuracy, as well as from the fact that usually only a single method is used in processing. We have performed an assessment of the size of the uncertainties associated with choices in the method used. The largest effects come from changes which affect the station network or the gridding method used. However, for the temperature indices in places with many stations, these changes have little effect on the long-term behaviour.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
K. M. Willett, R. J. H. Dunn, P. W. Thorne, S. Bell, M. de Podesta, D. E. Parker, P. D. Jones, and C. N. Williams Jr.
Clim. Past, 10, 1983–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, 2014
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We have developed HadISDH, a new gridded global land monthly mean climate montitoring product for humidity and temperature from 1973 to then end of 2013 (updated annually) based entirely on in situ observations. Uncertainty estimates are provided. Over the period of record significant warming and increases in water vapour have taken place. The specific humidity trends have slowed since a peak in 1998 concurrent with decreasing relative humidity from 2000 onwards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
R. J. H. Dunn, K. M. Willett, C. P. Morice, and D. E. Parker
Clim. Past, 10, 1501–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1501-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1501-2014, 2014
P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut
Clim. Past, 10, 797–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, 2014
K. M. Willett, C. N. Williams Jr., R. J. H. Dunn, P. W. Thorne, S. Bell, M. de Podesta, P. D. Jones, and D. E. Parker
Clim. Past, 9, 657–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-657-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-657-2013, 2013
F. Schenk and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 8, 1681–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1681-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1681-2012, 2012
M. J. Alcoforado, J. M. Vaquero, R. M. Trigo, and J. P. Taborda
Clim. Past, 8, 353–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-353-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-353-2012, 2012
R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, L. Breda, M. Bühler, R. Spadin, and A. Stickler
Clim. Past, 8, 325–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-325-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-325-2012, 2012
V. K. C. Venema, O. Mestre, E. Aguilar, I. Auer, J. A. Guijarro, P. Domonkos, G. Vertacnik, T. Szentimrey, P. Stepanek, P. Zahradnicek, J. Viarre, G. Müller-Westermeier, M. Lakatos, C. N. Williams, M. J. Menne, R. Lindau, D. Rasol, E. Rustemeier, K. Kolokythas, T. Marinova, L. Andresen, F. Acquaotta, S. Fratianni, S. Cheval, M. Klancar, M. Brunetti, C. Gruber, M. Prohom Duran, T. Likso, P. Esteban, and T. Brandsma
Clim. Past, 8, 89–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-89-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-89-2012, 2012
G. van der Schrier, A. van Ulden, and G. J. van Oldenborgh
Clim. Past, 7, 527–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-527-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-527-2011, 2011
S. Brönnimann, G. P. Compo, R. Spadin, R. Allan, and W. Adam
Clim. Past, 7, 265–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-265-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-265-2011, 2011
P. D. Jones and D. H. Lister
Clim. Past, 5, 259–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-259-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-259-2009, 2009
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