Articles | Volume 8, issue 5
Clim. Past, 8, 1599–1620, 2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: Climate variations in South America over the last 2000 years
Research article 16 Oct 2012
Research article | 16 Oct 2012
Comparison of 20th century and pre-industrial climate over South America in regional model simulations
S. Wagner et al.
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: HoloceneLarge-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulationsTechnical Note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theoryCMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy dataWater isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESMEffects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman EmpireStrengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetationPhysical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: results from TraCE-21ka simulationsComparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulationsAbrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulationRapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the HoloceneEvaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regionsBiome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene – an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulationsModeling precipitation δ18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescalesMid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulationsEffects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern HemisphereThe biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the HoloceneThe link between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycleStability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last MillenniumEarly-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changesThe impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the HoloceneGlobal climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean modelReexamining the barrier effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoonModel–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentrationEvaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulationsMid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East AsiaA regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validationInfluence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial MaximumCan an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexityThe sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulationsModel sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 kaUsing data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BPLast interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparisonThe East Asian Summer Monsoon at mid-Holocene: results from PMIP3 simulationsLarge-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millenniumEarly and mid-Holocene climate in the tropical Pacific: seasonal cycle and interannual variability induced by insolation changesMonsoonal response to mid-holocene orbital forcing in a high resolution GCMHolocene evolution of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds in transient simulations with global climate modelsUsing synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-HoloceneEvolution of the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient Holocene simulation: orbital forcing and sea-iceUpper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model studyStrength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulationsA regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millenniumSolar-forced shifts of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies during the HoloceneThe effect of a dynamic background albedo scheme on Sahel/Sahara precipitation during the mid-HoloceneVariations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millenniumClimate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisonsThe Southern Hemisphere semiannual oscillation and circulation variability during the Mid-HoloceneInvestigating the impact of Lake Agassiz drainage routes on the 8.2 ka cold event with a climate modelSources of Holocene variability of oxygen isotopes in paleoclimate archives
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872,Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for CPShort summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be easily applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics, and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450,Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937,Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911,Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024,Short summary
This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277,
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52,
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178,Short summary
Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066,Short summary
We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and 4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684,Short summary
A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134,Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085,Short summary
In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662,Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals. Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene. Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135,Short summary
We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941,Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027,Short summary
We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360,
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222,Short summary
The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586,
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471,
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275,
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163,
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568,
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171,
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682,
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587,
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542,
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140,
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982,
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968,
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901,
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619,
W. Zheng, B. Wu, J. He, and Y. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 453–466,
L. Fernández-Donado, J. F. González-Rouco, C. C. Raible, C. M. Ammann, D. Barriopedro, E. García-Bustamante, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, S. J. Phipps, J. Servonnat, D. Swingedouw, S. F. B. Tett, S. Wagner, P. Yiou, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 393–421,
Y. Luan, P. Braconnot, Y. Yu, W. Zheng, and O. Marti
Clim. Past, 8, 1093–1108,
J. H. C. Bosmans, S. S. Drijfhout, E. Tuenter, L. J. Lourens, F. J. Hilgen, and S. L. Weber
Clim. Past, 8, 723–740,
V. Varma, M. Prange, U. Merkel, T. Kleinen, G. Lohmann, M. Pfeiffer, H. Renssen, A. Wagner, S. Wagner, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 8, 391–402,
D. Ackerley, A. Lorrey, J. A. Renwick, S. J. Phipps, S. Wagner, S. Dean, J. Singarayer, P. Valdes, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. Ohgaito, and J. M. Jones
Clim. Past, 7, 1189–1207,
N. Fischer and J. H. Jungclaus
Clim. Past, 7, 1139–1148,
F. Adloff, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Kučera, R. Grimm, E. Maier-Reimer, G. Schmiedl, and K.-C. Emeis
Clim. Past, 7, 1103–1122,
J. Otto, T. Raddatz, and M. Claussen
Clim. Past, 7, 1027–1039,
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Jerez, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, R. Lorente-Plazas, J. F. González-Rouco, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 7, 451–472,
V. Varma, M. Prange, F. Lamy, U. Merkel, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 7, 339–347,
F. S. E. Vamborg, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen
Clim. Past, 7, 117–131,
D. Hofer, C. C. Raible, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 7, 133–150,
Q. Zhang, H. S. Sundqvist, A. Moberg, H. Körnich, J. Nilsson, and K. Holmgren
Clim. Past, 6, 609–626,
D. Ackerley and J. A. Renwick
Clim. Past, 6, 415–430,
Y.-X. Li, H. Renssen, A. P. Wiersma, and T. E. Törnqvist
Clim. Past, 5, 471–480,
A. N. LeGrande and G. A. Schmidt
Clim. Past, 5, 441–455,
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