Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1863-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1863-2026
Research article
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07 Oct 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 07 Oct 2026

Historical climate extremes in Europe and the connection between spring precipitation and summer heat

Laura Lipfert, Ralf Hand, Angela-Maria Burgdorf, Christian Pfister, Heinz Wanner, and Stefan Brönnimann

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-2852', Olivier Planchon, 21 Jun 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Stefan Bronnimann, 16 Aug 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-2852', Carla Mateus, 13 Jul 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Stefan Bronnimann, 16 Aug 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (24 Aug 2026) by Shiling Yang
AR by Stefan Bronnimann on behalf of the Authors (31 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (08 Sep 2026) by Shiling Yang
AR by Stefan Bronnimann on behalf of the Authors (21 Sep 2026)
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Editorial statement
This study presents a valuable long-term analysis of the relationship between dry springs and hot European summers. It combines documentary evidence, the 600-year ModE-RA reconstruction, and complementary model simulations and reanalyses. One of its particular strengths is the consistency of the identified relationship across different datasets and approaches. Southeastern Europe emerges as a key region where spring precipitation deficits are associated with subsequent summer warming and more intense heat waves. A detailed analysis of historical extremes, including the exceptional summer of 1473, illustrates the atmospheric and hydroclimatic processes involved. Notably, the regression analysis reveals that late-spring precipitation, especially in April and May, influences summer temperatures independently of atmospheric circulation. Overall, the manuscript offers a useful historical perspective on compound heat-drought hazards and provides relevant insights for understanding past climate extremes and present-day European climate risks.
Short summary
We analyse the link between dry springs and hot summers in Europe over the past 600 years. Starting with a study of the heat summer of 1473, which followed dry spring conditions in Southeastern Europe, we use the ModE-RA data set family to statistically analyse the link. We find that the link is strongest in regions where evaporation is moisture-limited. Hot summers are preceded by increased blocking over north-central Europe and a positive East Atlantic pattern in spring.
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