Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1863-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-1863-2026
Research article
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07 Oct 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 07 Oct 2026

Historical climate extremes in Europe and the connection between spring precipitation and summer heat

Laura Lipfert, Ralf Hand, Angela-Maria Burgdorf, Christian Pfister, Heinz Wanner, and Stefan Brönnimann

Data sets

Blocking Frequency 1728-2020 S. Brönnimann https://doi.org/10.48620/36384

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Editorial statement
This study presents a valuable long-term analysis of the relationship between dry springs and hot European summers. It combines documentary evidence, the 600-year ModE-RA reconstruction, and complementary model simulations and reanalyses. One of its particular strengths is the consistency of the identified relationship across different datasets and approaches. Southeastern Europe emerges as a key region where spring precipitation deficits are associated with subsequent summer warming and more intense heat waves. A detailed analysis of historical extremes, including the exceptional summer of 1473, illustrates the atmospheric and hydroclimatic processes involved. Notably, the regression analysis reveals that late-spring precipitation, especially in April and May, influences summer temperatures independently of atmospheric circulation. Overall, the manuscript offers a useful historical perspective on compound heat-drought hazards and provides relevant insights for understanding past climate extremes and present-day European climate risks.
Short summary
We analyse the link between dry springs and hot summers in Europe over the past 600 years. Starting with a study of the heat summer of 1473, which followed dry spring conditions in Southeastern Europe, we use the ModE-RA data set family to statistically analyse the link. We find that the link is strongest in regions where evaporation is moisture-limited. Hot summers are preceded by increased blocking over north-central Europe and a positive East Atlantic pattern in spring.
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