Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1533-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1533-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – an analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change?
Stuart Umbo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 8ST, United Kingdom
Franziska Lechleitner
Department of Chemistry, Biochemistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, 2012, Switzerland
Thomas Opel
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, Potsdam 14473, Germany
Sevasti Modestou
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 8ST, United Kingdom
Tobias Braun
Remote Sensing Centre for Earth System Research, Leipzig University, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Anton Vaks
Geochemistry and Environmental Geology Division, Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, 9692100, Israel
Gideon Henderson
Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University, Oxford, OX1 3AN, United Kingdom
Pete Scott
Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, 6009, Australia
Alexander Osintzev
Speleoclub Arabika, Irkutsk, 664058, Russia
Alexandr Kononov
Irkutsk Nation al Research Technical University, Irkutsk, 664074, Russia
Institute of the Earth's Crust, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Irkutsk, 664033, Russia
Irina Adrian
Lena Delta Wildlife Reserve, Tiksi, Sakha Republic, 678400, Russia
Yuri Dublyansky
Institute of Geology, University of Innsbruck, Innrain 52, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
Alena Giesche
U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
Department of Earth Sciences, Cambridge University, Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, United Kingdom
Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 8ST, United Kingdom
Related authors
Lutz Schirrmeister, Margret C. Fuchs, Thomas Opel, Andrei Andreev, Frank Kienast, Andrea Schneider, Larisa Nazarova, Larisa Frolova, Svetlana Kuzmina, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Vladimir Tumskoy, Heidrun Matthes, Gerrit Lohmann, Guido Grosse, Viktor Kunitsky, Hanno Meyer, Heike H. Zimmermann, Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Stuart Umbo, Sevi Modestou, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Anfisa Pismeniuk, Georg Schwamborn, Stephanie Kusch, and Sebastian Wetterich
Clim. Past, 21, 1143–1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Geochronological, cryolithological, paleoecological, and modeling data reconstruct the Last Interglacial (LIG) climate around the New Siberian Islands and reveal significantly warmer conditions compared to today. The critical challenges in predicting future ecosystem responses lie in the fact that the land–ocean distribution during the LIG was markedly different from today, affecting the degree of continentality, which played a major role in modulating climate and ecosystem dynamics.
Jade Margerum, Julia Homann, Stuart Umbo, Gernot Nehrke, Thorsten Hoffmann, Anton Vaks, Aleksandr Kononov, Alexander Osintsev, Alena Giesche, Andrew Mason, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Gideon M. Henderson, Ola Kwiecien, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach
Clim. Past, 21, 661–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse a southern Siberian stalagmite to reconstruct soil respiration, wildfire, and vegetation trends during the Last Interglacial (LIG) (124.1–118.8 ka) and the Holocene (10–0 ka). Wildfires were more prevalent during the LIG than the Holocene and were supported by fire-prone species, low soil respiration, and a greater difference between summer and winter temperature. We show that vegetation type and summer/winter temperature contrast are strong drivers of Siberian wildfires.
Sina Panitz, Michael Rogerson, Jack Longman, Nick Scroxton, Tim J. Lawson, Tim C. Atkinson, Vasile Ersek, James Baldini, Lisa Baldini, Stuart Umbo, Mahjoor A. Lone, Gideon M. Henderson, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach
Clim. Past, 21, 261–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-261-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-261-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of past glaciations tell us about how ice sheets grow and retreat. In this study, we use speleothems (cave deposits, e.g. stalagmites) in the British Isles to help constrain the extent of past glaciations in both time and space. Speleothems require liquid water to grow, and therefore their presence indicates the absence of ice above the cave. By dating these speleothems, we can improve existing reconstructions of past ice sheets.
Juan Luis Bernal-Wormull, Ana Moreno, Yuri Dublyansky, Christoph Spötl, Reyes Giménez, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Miguel Bartolomé, Martin Arriolabengoa, Eneko Iriarte, Isabel Cacho, Richard Lawrence Edwards, and Hai Cheng
Clim. Past, 21, 1235–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1235-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1235-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present a record of temperature changes during the last deglaciation and the Holocene using isotopes of fluid inclusions in stalagmites from the northeastern region of the Iberian Peninsula. This innovative climate proxy for this study region provides a quantitative understanding of the abrupt temperature changes in southern Europe in the last 16 500 years before present.
Lutz Schirrmeister, Margret C. Fuchs, Thomas Opel, Andrei Andreev, Frank Kienast, Andrea Schneider, Larisa Nazarova, Larisa Frolova, Svetlana Kuzmina, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Vladimir Tumskoy, Heidrun Matthes, Gerrit Lohmann, Guido Grosse, Viktor Kunitsky, Hanno Meyer, Heike H. Zimmermann, Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Stuart Umbo, Sevi Modestou, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Anfisa Pismeniuk, Georg Schwamborn, Stephanie Kusch, and Sebastian Wetterich
Clim. Past, 21, 1143–1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Geochronological, cryolithological, paleoecological, and modeling data reconstruct the Last Interglacial (LIG) climate around the New Siberian Islands and reveal significantly warmer conditions compared to today. The critical challenges in predicting future ecosystem responses lie in the fact that the land–ocean distribution during the LIG was markedly different from today, affecting the degree of continentality, which played a major role in modulating climate and ecosystem dynamics.
Jade Margerum, Julia Homann, Stuart Umbo, Gernot Nehrke, Thorsten Hoffmann, Anton Vaks, Aleksandr Kononov, Alexander Osintsev, Alena Giesche, Andrew Mason, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Gideon M. Henderson, Ola Kwiecien, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach
Clim. Past, 21, 661–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse a southern Siberian stalagmite to reconstruct soil respiration, wildfire, and vegetation trends during the Last Interglacial (LIG) (124.1–118.8 ka) and the Holocene (10–0 ka). Wildfires were more prevalent during the LIG than the Holocene and were supported by fire-prone species, low soil respiration, and a greater difference between summer and winter temperature. We show that vegetation type and summer/winter temperature contrast are strong drivers of Siberian wildfires.
Pieter Vermeesch, Noah McLean, Anton Vaks, Tzahi Golan, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, and Randall Parris
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-432, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
U-Pb dating of cave sediments has provided important new time constraints on the evolution of cave-dwelling organisms (including early humans), and of Earth's climate during the past 5 million years. This paper shows that the most common type of U-Pb dating, which uses 238U and 206Pb, can be inaccurate beyond 2 million years ago. It proposes an alternative type of U-Pb dating, using 235U and 207Pb, as a more accurate alternative.
Sina Panitz, Michael Rogerson, Jack Longman, Nick Scroxton, Tim J. Lawson, Tim C. Atkinson, Vasile Ersek, James Baldini, Lisa Baldini, Stuart Umbo, Mahjoor A. Lone, Gideon M. Henderson, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach
Clim. Past, 21, 261–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-261-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-261-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of past glaciations tell us about how ice sheets grow and retreat. In this study, we use speleothems (cave deposits, e.g. stalagmites) in the British Isles to help constrain the extent of past glaciations in both time and space. Speleothems require liquid water to grow, and therefore their presence indicates the absence of ice above the cave. By dating these speleothems, we can improve existing reconstructions of past ice sheets.
Sarah Ann Rowan, Marc Luetscher, Thomas Laemmel, Anna Harrison, Sönke Szidat, and Franziska A. Lechleitner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3775, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explored CO2 from soil to subsurface at Milandre cave, finding very high concentrations at all depths. While forest soils produced modern CO2 year-round, cave and meadow soil CO2 influences varies with temperature controlled cave ventilation, with older CO2 input in winter from old organic matter stored underground. These findings show that CO2 fluxes in karst systems are highly dynamic, and a better understanding of them is important for accurate carbon cycle modelling.
Nikita Kaushal, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Micah Wilhelm, Khalil Azennoud, Janica C. Bühler, Kerstin Braun, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Yuval Burstyn, Laia Comas-Bru, Jens Fohlmeister, Yonaton Goldsmith, Sandy P. Harrison, István G. Hatvani, Kira Rehfeld, Magdalena Ritzau, Vanessa Skiba, Heather M. Stoll, József G. Szűcs, Péter Tanos, Pauline C. Treble, Vitor Azevedo, Jonathan L. Baker, Andrea Borsato, Sakonvan Chawchai, Andrea Columbu, Laura Endres, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Alena Kimbrough, Koray Koç, Monika Markowska, Belen Martrat, Syed Masood Ahmad, Carole Nehme, Valdir Felipe Novello, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Jiaoyang Ruan, Natasha Sekhon, Nitesh Sinha, Carol V. Tadros, Benjamin H. Tiger, Sophie Warken, Annabel Wolf, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1933–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1933-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Speleothems are a popular, multi-proxy climate archive that provide regional to global insights into past hydroclimate trends with precise chronologies. We present an update to the SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes
Synthesis and AnaLysis) database, SISALv3, which, for the first time, contains speleothem trace element records, in addition to an update to the stable isotope records available in previous versions of the database, cumulatively providing data from 365 globally distributed sites.
Synthesis and AnaLysis) database, SISALv3, which, for the first time, contains speleothem trace element records, in addition to an update to the stable isotope records available in previous versions of the database, cumulatively providing data from 365 globally distributed sites.
Heather M. Stoll, Chris Day, Franziska Lechleitner, Oliver Kost, Laura Endres, Jakub Sliwinski, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Hai Cheng, and Denis Scholz
Clim. Past, 19, 2423–2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2423-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2423-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stalagmites formed in caves provide valuable information about past changes in climate and vegetation conditions. In this contribution, we present a new method to better estimate past changes in soil and vegetation productivity using carbon isotopes and trace elements measured in stalagmites. Applying this method to other stalagmites should provide a better indication of past vegetation feedbacks to climate change.
Julia Homann, Niklas Karbach, Stacy A. Carolin, Daniel H. James, David Hodell, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Ola Kwiecien, Mark Brenner, Carlos Peraza Lope, and Thorsten Hoffmann
Biogeosciences, 20, 3249–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cave stalagmites contain substances that can be used to reconstruct past changes in local and regional environmental conditions. We used two classes of biomarkers (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and monosaccharide anhydrides) to detect the presence of fire and to also explore changes in fire regime (e.g. fire frequency, intensity, and fuel source). We tested our new method on a stalagmite from Mayapan, a large Maya city on the Yucatán Peninsula.
Charlotte Honiat, Gabriella Koltai, Yuri Dublyansky, R. Lawrence Edwards, Haiwei Zhang, Hai Cheng, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 19, 1177–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A look at the climate evolution during the last warm period may allow us to test ground for future climate conditions. We quantified the temperature evolution during the Last Interglacial using a tiny amount of water trapped in the crystals of precisely dated stalagmites in caves from the southeastern European Alps. Our record indicates temperatures up to 2 °C warmer than today and an unstable climate during the first half of the Last Interglacial.
Maria-Elena Vorrath, Juliane Müller, Paola Cárdenas, Thomas Opel, Sebastian Mieruch, Oliver Esper, Lester Lembke-Jene, Johan Etourneau, Andrea Vieth-Hillebrand, Niko Lahajnar, Carina B. Lange, Amy Leventer, Dimitris Evangelinos, Carlota Escutia, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 19, 1061–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1061-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is important to stabilize the ice sheet in Antarctica. To understand how the global climate and sea ice were related in the past we looked at ancient molecules (IPSO25) from sea-ice algae and other species whose dead cells accumulated on the ocean floor over time. With chemical analyses we could reconstruct the history of sea ice and ocean temperatures of the past 14 000 years. We found out that sea ice became less as the ocean warmed, and more phytoplankton grew towards today's level.
Paul Töchterle, Simon D. Steidle, R. Lawrence Edwards, Yuri Dublyansky, Christoph Spötl, Xianglei Li, John Gunn, and Gina E. Moseley
Geochronology, 4, 617–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-617-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cryogenic cave carbonates (CCCs) provide a marker for past permafrost conditions. Their formation age is determined by Th / U dating. However, samples can be contaminated with small amounts of Th at formation, which can cause inaccurate ages and require correction. We analysed multiple CCCs and found that varying degrees of contamination can cause an apparent spread of ages, when samples actually formed within distinguishable freezing events. A correction method using isochrons is presented.
Loeka L. Jongejans, Kai Mangelsdorf, Cornelia Karger, Thomas Opel, Sebastian Wetterich, Jérémy Courtin, Hanno Meyer, Alexander I. Kizyakov, Guido Grosse, Andrei G. Shepelev, Igor I. Syromyatnikov, Alexander N. Fedorov, and Jens Strauss
The Cryosphere, 16, 3601–3617, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Large parts of Arctic Siberia are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming leads to permafrost thaw. At the Batagay megaslump, permafrost sediments up to ~ 650 kyr old are exposed. We took sediment samples and analysed the organic matter (e.g. plant remains). We found distinct differences in the biomarker distributions between the glacial and interglacial deposits with generally stronger microbial activity during interglacial periods. Further permafrost thaw enhances greenhouse gas emissions.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Cinthya Esther Nava Fernandez, Tobias Braun, Bethany Fox, Adam Hartland, Ola Kwiecien, Chelsea Pederson, Sebastian Hoepker, Stefano Bernasconi, Madalina Jaggi, John Hellstrom, Fernando Gázquez, Amanda French, Norbert Marwan, Adrian Immenhauser, and Sebastian Franz Martin Breitenbach
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-172, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a ca. 1000 year long (6.4–5.4 ka BP) stalagmite-based reconstruction of mid-Holocene rainfall variability in the tropical western Pacific. The annually laminated multi-proxy (δ13C, δ18O, X/Ca, gray values) record comes from Niue island and informs on El Nino-Southern Oscillation and South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics. Our data suggest that ENSO was active and influenced rainfall seasonality over the covered time interval. Rainfall seasonality was subdued during active ENSO phases
Andrew J. Mason, Anton Vaks, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, John N. Hooker, and Gideon M. Henderson
Geochronology, 4, 33–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-33-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-33-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A novel technique for the uranium–lead dating of geologically young carbonates is described and tested. The technique expands our ability to date geological events such as fault movements and past climate records.
Franziska A. Lechleitner, Christopher C. Day, Oliver Kost, Micah Wilhelm, Negar Haghipour, Gideon M. Henderson, and Heather M. Stoll
Clim. Past, 17, 1903–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1903-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1903-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil respiration is a critical but poorly constrained component of the global carbon cycle. We analyse the effect of changing soil respiration rates on the stable carbon isotope ratio of speleothems from northern Spain covering the last deglaciation. Using geochemical analysis and forward modelling we quantify the processes affecting speleothem stable carbon isotope ratios and extract a signature of increasing soil respiration synchronous with deglacial warming.
Inken Heidke, Adam Hartland, Denis Scholz, Andrew Pearson, John Hellstrom, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, and Thorsten Hoffmann
Biogeosciences, 18, 2289–2300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2289-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2289-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in leaf litter and different soil horizons as well as dripwater and flowstone samples from four different cave sites from different vegetation zones in New Zealand using liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. We test whether the original source-dependent LOP signal of the overlying vegetation is preserved and can be recovered from flowstone samples and investigate how the signal is altered by the transport from the soil to the cave.
Yu-Te Hsieh, Walter Geibert, E. Malcolm S. Woodward, Neil J. Wyatt, Maeve C. Lohan, Eric P. Achterberg, and Gideon M. Henderson
Biogeosciences, 18, 1645–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The South Atlantic near 40° S is one of the high-productivity and most dynamic nutrient regions in the oceans, but the sources and fluxes of trace elements (TEs) to this region remain unclear. This study investigates seawater Ra-228 and provides important constraints on ocean mixing and dissolved TE fluxes to this region. Vertical mixing is a more important source than aeolian or shelf inputs in this region, but particulate or winter deep-mixing inputs may be required to balance the TE budgets.
Xianglei Li, Kathleen A. Wendt, Yuri Dublyansky, Gina E. Moseley, Christoph Spötl, and R. Lawrence Edwards
Geochronology, 3, 49–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-49-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-49-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we built a statistical model to determine the initial δ234U in submerged calcite crusts that coat the walls of Devils Hole 2 (DH2) cave (Nevada, USA) and, using a 234U–238U dating method, extended the chronology of the calcite deposition beyond previous well-established 230Th ages and determined the oldest calcite deposited in this cave, a time marker for cave genesis. The novel method presented here may be used in future speleothem studies in similar hydrogeological settings.
Perach Nuriel, Jörn-Frederik Wotzlaw, Maria Ovtcharova, Anton Vaks, Ciprian Stremtan, Martin Šala, Nick M. W. Roberts, and Andrew R. C. Kylander-Clark
Geochronology, 3, 35–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-35-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-35-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution presents a new reference material, ASH-15 flowstone with an age of 2.965 ± 0.011 Ma (95 % CI), to be used for in situ U–Pb dating of carbonate material. The new age analyses include the use of the EARTHTIME isotopic tracers and a large number of sub-samples (n = 37) with small aliquots (1–7 mg) each that are more representative of laser-ablation spot analysis. The new results could improve the propagated uncertainties on the final age with a minimal value of 0.4 %.
Maria-Elena Vorrath, Juliane Müller, Lorena Rebolledo, Paola Cárdenas, Xiaoxu Shi, Oliver Esper, Thomas Opel, Walter Geibert, Práxedes Muñoz, Christian Haas, Gerhard Kuhn, Carina B. Lange, Gerrit Lohmann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 16, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the applicability of the organic biomarker IPSO25 for sea ice reconstructions in the industrial era at the western Antarctic Peninsula. We successfully evaluated our data with satellite sea ice observations. The comparison with marine and ice core records revealed that sea ice interpretations must consider climatic and sea ice dynamics. Sea ice biomarker production is mainly influenced by the Southern Annular Mode, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation seems to have a minor impact.
Sebastian Wetterich, Alexander Kizyakov, Michael Fritz, Juliane Wolter, Gesine Mollenhauer, Hanno Meyer, Matthias Fuchs, Aleksei Aksenov, Heidrun Matthes, Lutz Schirrmeister, and Thomas Opel
The Cryosphere, 14, 4525–4551, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4525-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study, we analysed geochemical and sedimentological properties of relict permafrost and ground ice exposed at the Sobo-Sise Yedoma cliff in the eastern Lena delta in NE Siberia. We obtained insight into permafrost aggradation and degradation over the last approximately 52 000 years and the climatic and morphodynamic controls on regional-scale permafrost dynamics of the central Laptev Sea coastal region.
Laia Comas-Bru, Kira Rehfeld, Carla Roesch, Sahar Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi, Sandy P. Harrison, Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Matthew Bosomworth, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Yuval Burstyn, Andrea Columbu, Michael Deininger, Attila Demény, Bronwyn Dixon, Jens Fohlmeister, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Nikita Kaushal, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Belen Martrat, Valdir Felipe Novello, Jessica Oster, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Denis Scholz, Nick Scroxton, Nitesh Sinha, Brittany Marie Ward, Sophie Warken, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2579–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an updated version of the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) database. This new version contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age–depth models, including their uncertainties, for 512 speleothems.
Bronwen L. Konecky, Nicholas P. McKay, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Laia Comas-Bru, Emilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Georgina M. Falster, Matt J. Fischer, Matthew D. Jones, Lukas Jonkers, Darrell S. Kaufman, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, Belen Martrat, Thomas Opel, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Hussein R. Sayani, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Diane M. Thompson, Jonathan J. Tyler, Nerilie J. Abram, Alyssa R. Atwood, Olivier Cartapanis, Jessica L. Conroy, Mark A. Curran, Sylvia G. Dee, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Zoltán Kern, Trevor J. Porter, Samantha L. Stevenson, Lucien von Gunten, and Iso2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2261–2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, 2020
Cited articles
Anderson, N. T., Kelson, J. R., Kele, S., Daëron, M., Bonifacie, M., Horita, J., Mackey, T. J., John, C. M., Kluge, T., Petschnig, P., Jost, A. B., Huntington, K. W., Bernasconi, S. M., and Bergmann, K. D.: A Unified Clumped Isotope Thermometer Calibration (0.5–1,100 °C) Using Carbonate-Based Standardization, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092069, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092069, 2021.
Baker, A., Hartmann, A., Duan, W., Hankin, S., Comas-Bru, L., Cuthbert, M. O., Treble, P. C., Banner, J., Genty, D., Baldini, L. M., Bartolomé, M., Moreno, A., Pérez-Mejías, C., and Werner, M.: Global analysis reveals climatic controls on the oxygen isotope composition of cave drip water, Nat. Commun., 10, 2984, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11027-w, 2019.
Baker, J. L., Lachniet, M. S., Chervyatsova, O., Asmerom, Y., and Polyak, V. J.: Holocene warming in western continental Eurasia driven by glacial retreat and greenhouse forcing, Nat. Geosci., 10, 430–435, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2953, 2017.
Bernasconi, S. M., Müller, I. A., Bergmann, K. D., and Breitenbach, S. F. M.: Reducing Uncertainties in Carbonate Clumped Isotope Analysis Through Consistent Carbonate-Based Standardization, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GC007385, 2018.
Bernasconi, S. M., Daëron, M., Bergmann, K. D., Bonifacie, M., Meckler, A. N., Affek, H. P., Anderson, N., Bajnai, D., Barkan, E., Beverly, E., Blamart, D., Burgener, L., Calmels, D., Chaduteau, C., Clog, M., Davidheiser-Kroll, B., Davies, A., Dux, F., Eiler, J., Elliott, B., Fetrow, A. C., Fiebig, J., Goldberg, S., Hermoso, M., Huntington, K. W., Hyland, E., Ingalls, M., Jaggi, M., John, C. M., Jost, A. B., Katz, S., Kelson, J., Kluge, T., Kocken, I. J., Laskar, A., Leutert, T. J., Liang, D., Lucarelli, J., Mackey, T. J., Mangenot, X., Meinicke, N., Modestou, S. E., Müller, I. A., Murray, S., Neary, A., Packard, N., Passey, B. H., Pelletier, E., Petersen, S., Piasecki, A., Schauer, A., Snell, K. E., Swart, P. K., Tripati, A., Upadhyay, D., Vennemann, T., Winkelstern, I., Yarian, D., Yoshida, N., Zhang, N., and Ziegler, M.: InterCarb: A Community Effort to Improve Interlaboratory Standardization of the Carbonate Clumped Isotope Thermometer Using Carbonate Standards, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 22, e2020GC009588, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC009588, 2021.
Berndt, D. J. and Clifford, J.: Using dynamic time warping to find patterns in time series, in: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (AAAIWS'94), AAAI Press, 359–370, 1994.
Boike, J., Kattenstroth, B., Abramova, K., Bornemann, N., Chetverova, A., Fedorova, I., Fröb, K., Grigoriev, M., Grüber, M., Kutzbach, L., Langer, M., Minke, M., Muster, S., Piel, K., Pfeiffer, E.-M., Stoof, G., Westermann, S., Wischnewski, K., Wille, C., and Hubberten, H.-W.: Baseline characteristics of climate, permafrost and land cover from a new permafrost observatory in the Lena River Delta, Siberia (1998–2011), Biogeosciences, 10, 2105–2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2105-2013, 2013.
Boike, J., Nitzbon, J., Anders, K., Grigoriev, M., Bolshiyanov, D., Langer, M., Lange, S., Bornemann, N., Morgenstern, A., Schreiber, P., Wille, C., Chadburn, S., Gouttevin, I., Burke, E., and Kutzbach, L.: A 16-year record (2002–2017) of permafrost, active-layer, and meteorological conditions at the Samoylov Island Arctic permafrost research site, Lena River delta, northern Siberia: an opportunity to validate remote-sensing data and land surface, snow, and permafrost models, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019.
Bonne, J.-L., Meyer, H., Behrens, M., Boike, J., Kipfstuhl, S., Rabe, B., Schmidt, T., Schönicke, L., Steen-Larsen, H. C., and Werner, M.: Moisture origin as a driver of temporal variabilities of the water vapour isotopic composition in the Lena River Delta, Siberia, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020.
Borsato, A., Frisia, S., Fairchild, I. J., Somogyi, A., and Susini, J.: Trace element distribution in annual stalagmite laminae mapped by micrometer-resolution X-ray fluorescence: Implications for incorporation of environmentally significant species, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 71, 1494–1512, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2006.12.016, 2007.
Bradshaw, C. D., Lunt, D. J., Flecker, R., Salzmann, U., Pound, M. J., Haywood, A. M., and Eronen, J. T.: The relative roles of CO2 and palaeogeography in determining late Miocene climate: results from a terrestrial model–data comparison, Clim. Past, 8, 1257–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1257-2012, 2012.
Brand, W. A., Assonov, S. S., and Coplen, T. B.: Correction for the 17O interference in δ(13C) measurements when analyzing CO2 with stable isotope mass spectrometry (IUPAC Technical Report), Pure Appl. Chem., 82, 1719–1733, https://doi.org/10.1351/PAC-REP-09-01-05, 2010.
Breitenbach, S. F. M. and Marwan, N.: Acquisition and analysis of greyscale data from stalagmites using ImageJ software, Cave and Karst Science, 50, 69–78, https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28523 (last access: 27 August 2025), 2023.
Bruch, A. A., Utescher, T., and Mosbrugger, V.: Precipitation patterns in the Miocene of Central Europe and the development of continentality, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 304, 202–211, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.10.002, 2011.
Buchwal, A., Rachlewicz, G., Heim, B., and Juhls, B.: Trees on the tundra: warmer climate might not favor prostrate Larix tree but Betula nana shrub growth in Siberian tundra (Lena River Delta), Agr. Forest Meteorol., 339, 109543, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109543, 2023.
Burls, N. J., Bradshaw, C. D., De Boer, A. M., Herold, N., Huber, M., Pound, M., Donnadieu, Y., Farnsworth, A., Frigola, A., Gasson, E., von der Heydt, A. S., Hutchinson, D. K., Knorr, G., Lawrence, K. T., Lear, C. H., Li, X., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D. J., Marzocchi, A., Prange, M., Riihimaki, C. A., Sarr, A. C., Siler, N., and Zhang, Z.: Simulating Miocene Warmth: Insights From an Opportunistic Multi-Model Ensemble (MioMIP1), Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 36, e2020PA004054, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004054, 2021.
Chylek, P., Folland, C., Klett, J. D., Wang, M., Hengartner, N., Lesins, G., and Dubey, M. K.: Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099371, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371, 2022.
Coplen, T. B.: Calibration of the calcite–water oxygen-isotope geothermometer at Devils Hole, Nevada, a natural laboratory, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 71, 3948–3957, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2007.05.028, 2007.
Craig, H.: Isotopic variations in meteoric waters, Science, 133, 1702–1703, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.133.3465.1702, 1961.
Daëron, M.: Full Propagation of Analytical Uncertainties in Δ47 Measurements, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 22, e2020GC009592, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC009592, 2021.
Daëron, M. and Gray, W. R.: Revisiting Oxygen-18 and Clumped Isotopes in Planktic and Benthic Foraminifera, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 38, e2023PA004660, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023PA004660, 2023.
Daëron, M., Blamart, D., Peral, M., and Affek, H. P.: Absolute isotopic abundance ratios and the accuracy of Δ47 measurements, Chem. Geol., 442, 83–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2016.08.014, 2016.
Dansgaard, W.: Stable isotopes in precipitation, Tellus, 16, 436–468, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v16i4.8993, 1964.
de Nooijer, W., Zhang, Q., Li, Q., Zhang, Q., Li, X., Zhang, Z., Guo, C., Nisancioglu, K. H., Haywood, A. M., Tindall, J. C., Hunter, S. J., Dowsett, H. J., Stepanek, C., Lohmann, G., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Feng, R., Sohl, L. E., Chandler, M. A., Tan, N., Contoux, C., Ramstein, G., Baatsen, M. L. J., von der Heydt, A. S., Chandan, D., Peltier, W. R., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chan, W.-L., Kamae, Y., and Brierley, C. M.: Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations, Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020.
Dennis, K. J., Affek, H. P., Passey, B. H., Schrag, D. P., and Eiler, J. M.: Defining an absolute reference frame for `clumped' isotope studies of CO2, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 75, 7117–7131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2011.09.025, 2011.
Domínguez-Villar, D., Fairchild, I. J., Baker, A., Carrasco, R. M., and Pedraza, J.: Reconstruction of cave air temperature based on surface atmosphere temperature and vegetation changes: Implications for speleothem palaeoclimate records, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 369–370, 158–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.03.017, 2013.
Dublyansky, Y. V. and Spötl, C.: Hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of water from inclusions in minerals: Design of a new crushing system and on-line continous-flow isotope ratio mass spectrometric analysis, Rapid Commun. Mass Sp., 23, 2605–2613, https://doi.org/10.1002/rcm.4155, 2009.
Eiler, J. M. and Schauble, E.: 18O13C16O in Earth's atmosphere, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 68, 4767–4777, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2004.05.035, 2004.
Fernandez, A., Müller, I. A., Rodríguez-Sanz, L., van Dijk, J., Looser, N., and Bernasconi, S. M.: A Reassessment of the Precision of Carbonate Clumped Isotope Measurements: Implications for Calibrations and Paleoclimate Reconstructions, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 18, 4375–4386, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GC007106, 2017.
Finestone, E. M., Breeze, P. S., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Drake, N., Bergmann, L., Maksudov, F., Muhammadiyev, A., Scott, P., Cai, Y., Khatsenovich, A. M., Rybin, E. P., Nehrke, G., Boivin, N., and Petraglia, M.: Paleolithic occupation of arid Central Asia in the Middle Pleistocene, PLoS ONE, 17, e0273984, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273984, 2022.
Ford, J. D., McDowell, G., and Pearce, T.: The adaptation challenge in the Arctic, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 1046–1053, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2723, 2015.
Gaskell, D. E., Huber, M., O'brien, C. L., Inglis, G. N., Acosta, R. P., Poulsen, C. J., and Hull, P. M.: The latitudinal temperature gradient and its climate dependence as inferred from foraminiferal δ18O over the past 95 million years, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2111332119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111332119, 2022.
Goldner, A., Herold, N., and Huber, M.: The challenge of simulating the warmth of the mid-Miocene climatic optimum in CESM1, Clim. Past, 10, 523–536, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-523-2014, 2014.
Hammar, J.: Drivers of permafrost degradation along the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH), University of Potsdam, https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.0b40007f-099e-413f-b510-6bfb6feafa53 (last access: 28 October 2024), 2022.
Hao, Q., Wang, L., Oldfield, F., and Guo, Z.: Extra-long interglacial in Northern Hemisphere during MISs 15–13 arising from limited extent of Arctic ice sheets in glacial MIS 14, Sci. Rep.-UK, 5, 12103, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12103, 2015.
Hartland, A., Fairchild, I. J., Lead, J. R., Borsato, A., Baker, A., Frisia, S., and Baalousha, M.: From soil to cave: Transport of trace metals by natural organic matter in karst dripwaters, Chem. Geol., 304–305, 68–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2012.01.032, 2012.
Harzhauser, M., Piller, W. E., Müllegger, S., Grunert, P., and Micheels, A.: Changing seasonality patterns in Central Europe from Miocene Climate Optimum to Miocene Climate Transition deduced from the Crassostrea isotope archive, Global Planet. Change, 76, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.12.003, 2011.
Herbert, T. D., Lawrence, K. T., Tzanova, A., Peterson, L. C., Caballero-Gill, R., and Kelly, C. S.: Late Miocene global cooling and the rise of modern ecosystems, Nat. Geosci., 9, 843–847, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2813, 2016.
Hofer, S., Lang, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Delhasse, A., Tedstone, A., and Fettweis, X.: Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6, Nat. Commun., 11, 6289, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8, 2020.
Huntington, K. W., Eiler, J. M., Affek, H. P., Guo, W., Bonifacie, M., Yeung, L. Y., Thiagarajan, N., Passey, B., Tripati, A., Daëron, M., and Came, R.: Methods and limitations of “clumped” CO2 isotope (Δ47) analysis by gas-source isotope ratiomass spectrometry, J. Mass Spectrom., 44, 1318–1329, https://doi.org/10.1002/jms.1614, 2009.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Izokh, N. and Yazikov, A.: Discovery of Early Carboniferous conodonts in Northern Kharaulakh Ranges (lower reaches of the Lena River, northeastern Siberia, Arctic Russia), Revue de Micropaleontologie, 60, 213–232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.revmic.2017.03.001, 2017.
John, C. M. and Bowen, D.: Community software for challenging isotope analysis: First applications of `Easotope' to clumped isotopes, Rapid Commun. Mass Sp., 30, 2285–2300, https://doi.org/10.1002/rcm.7720, 2016.
Johnson, K. R., Hu, C., Belshaw, N. S., and Henderson, G. M.: Seasonal trace-element and stable-isotope variations in a Chinese speleothem: The potential for high-resolution paleomonsoon reconstruction, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 244, 394–407, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2006.01.064, 2006.
Lachniet, M. S.: Climatic and environmental controls on speleothem oxygen-isotope values, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 412–432, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.10.021, 2009.
Lechleitner, F. A., Mason, A. J., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Vaks, A., Haghipour, N., and Henderson, G. M.: Permafrost-related hiatuses in stalagmites: Evaluating the potential for reconstruction of carbon cycle dynamics, Quat. Geochronol., 56, 101037, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quageo.2019.101037, 2020.
Ma, N., Jiang, J. H., Hou, K., Lin, Y., Vu, T., Rosen, P. E., Gu, Y., and Fahy, K. A.: 21st Century Global and Regional Surface Temperature Projections, Earth Space Sci., 9, e2022EA002662, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002662, 2022.
Mason, A. J., Vaks, A., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Hooker, J. N., and Henderson, G. M.: A simplified isotope dilution approach for the U–Pb dating of speleogenic and other low-232Th carbonates by multi-collector ICP-MS, Geochronology, 4, 33–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-33-2022, 2022.
McKay, D. I. A., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022.
Meinicke, N., Ho, S. L., Hannisdal, B., Nürnberg, D., Tripati, A., Schiebel, R., and Meckler, A. N.: A robust calibration of the clumped isotopes to temperature relationship for foraminifers, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 270, 160–183, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2019.11.022, 2020.
Met Office: Heathrow climatic averages 1991–2000, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/gcpsvg3nc (last access: 22 October 2024).
Micheels, A., Bruch, A. A., Uhl, D., Utescher, T., and Mosbrugger, V.: A Late Miocene climate model simulation with ECHAM4/ML and its quantitative validation with terrestrial proxy data, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 253, 251–270, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2007.03.042, 2007.
Mikhaltsov, N., Izokh, N., Sennikov, N., Pudrikov, P., Radevitch, A., Alekseev, I., and Avdeev, D.: Russian-German Cooperation: Expeditions to Siberia in 2017, edited by: Strauss, J., Alfred-Wegener Institute, 725, 90–107, https://doi.org/10.2312/BzPM_0725_2018, 2018.
Miller, K. G., Browning, J. V, Schmelz, W. J., Kopp, R. E., Mountain, G. S., and Wright, J. D.: The Phanerozoic Record of Global Sea-Level Change, Science, 310, 1293–1298, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1116412, 2005.
Miller, K. G., Browning, J. V, Schmelz, W. J., Kopp, R. E., Mountain, G. S., and Wright, J. D.: Cenozoic sea-level and cryospheric evolution from deep-sea geochemical and continental margin records, Sci. Adv., 6, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz1346, 2020.
Milne, C. J., Kinniburgh, D. G., Van Riemsdijk, W. H., and Tipping, E.: Generic NICA – Donnan model parameters for metal-ion binding by humic substances, Environ. Sci. Technol., 37, 958–971, https://doi.org/10.1021/es0258879, 2003.
Moberg, A.: Stockholm Historical Weather Observations – Monthly mean air temperatures since 1756, Dataset version 3, Bolin Centre Database, https://doi.org/10.17043/stockholm-historical-monthly-temperature-3, 2021.
Molnar, P.: Differences between soil and air temperatures: Implications for geological reconstructions of past climate, Geosphere, 18, 800–824, https://doi.org/10.1130/GES02448.1, 2022.
Moseley, G. E., Edwards, R. L., Lord, N. S., Spötl, C., and Cheng, H.: Speleothem record of mild and wet mid-Pleistocene climate in northeast Greenland, Sci. Adv, 2021.
Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Russell, G. L., Rind, D., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., García-Pando, C. P., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M. S.: Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS-E2.1, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002871, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002871, 2022.
Nitzbon, J., Schneider von Deimling, T., Aliyeva, M., Chadburn, S. E., Grosse, G., Laboor, S., Lee, H., Lohmann, G., Steinert, N. J., Stuenzi, S. M., Werner, M., Westermann, S., and Langer, M.: No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 573–585, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4, 2024.
Opel, T., Bertran, P., Grosse, G., Jones, M., Luetscher, M., Schirrmeister, L., Stadelmaier, K. H., and Veremeeva, A.: Ancient permafrost and past permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere, in: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science, 3rd edition, vol. 5, edited by: Elias, S.pp. 16-33, Elsevier, UK, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-99931-1.00258-0, 2025.
Orland, I. J., Burstyn, Y., Bar-Matthews, M., Kozdon, R., Ayalon, A., Matthews, A., and Valley, J. W.: Seasonal climate signals (1990-2008) in a modern Soreq Cave stalagmite as revealed by high-resolution geochemical analysis, Chem. Geol., 363, 322–333, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2013.11.011, 2014.
Oster, J. L., Ronay, E. R., Sharp, W. D., Breitenbach, S. F. M., and Furbish, D. J.: Controls on Speleothem Initial Ratios in a Monsoon Climate, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 24, e2023GC010899, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GC010899, 2023.
Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1633–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007, 2007.
Petersen, S. V., Winkelstern, I. Z., Lohmann, K. C., and Meyer, K. W.: The effects of Porapak(™) trap temperature on δ18O, δ13C, and Δ47 values in preparing samples for clumped isotope analysis, Rapid Commun. Mass Sp., 30, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1002/rcm.7438, 2015.
Pflitsch, A. and Piasecki, J.: Detection of an airflow system in Niedzwiedzia (Bear) Cave, Kletno, Poland, J. Cave Karst Stud., 65, 160–173, 2003.
Pionke, H. B., Gburek, W. J., Sharpley, A. N., and Zollweg, J. A.: Hydrological and chemical controls on phosphorus loss from catchments, in: Phosphorus Loss From Soil to Water, CAB International, Wallingford, 225–242, 1997.
Popova, S., Utescher, T., Gromyko, D., Bruch, A. A., and Mosbrugger, V.: Palaeoclimate evolution in Siberia and the Russian far east from the Oligocene to Pliocene – evidence from fruit and seed floras, Turk. J. Earth Sci., 21, 315–334, https://doi.org/10.3906/yer-1005-6, 2012.
Pound, M. J., Haywood, A. M., Salzmann, U., Riding, J. B., Lunt, D. J., and Hunter, S. J.: A Tortonian (Late Miocene, 11.61–7.25 Ma) global vegetation reconstruction, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 300, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.11.029, 2011.
Pound, M. J., Haywood, A. M., Salzmann, U., and Riding, J. B.: Global vegetation dynamics and latitudinal temperature gradients during the Mid to Late Miocene (15.97–5.33 Ma), Earth-Sci. Rev., 112, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.02.005, 2012.
Rae, J. W. B., Zhang, Y. G., Liu, X., Foster, G. L., Stoll, H. M., and Whiteford, R. D. M.: Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 49, 609–650, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026, 2021.
Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., and Laaksonen, A.: The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 168, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3, 2022.
Rodrigues, T., Voelker, A. H. L., Grimalt, J. O., Abrantes, F., and Naughton, F.: Iberian Margin sea surface temperature during MIS 15 to 9 (580–300 ka): Glacial suborbital variability versus interglacial stability, Paleoceanography, 26, PA1204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010PA001927, 2011.
Schubert, B. A., Jahren, A. H., Davydov, S. P., and Warny, S.: The transitional climate of the late Miocene Arctic: Winter dominated precipitation with high seasonal variability, Geology, 45, 447–450, https://doi.org/10.1130/G38746.1, 2017.
Sherwin, C. M. and Baldini, J. U. L.: Cave air and hydrological controls on prior calcite precipitation and stalagmite growth rates: Implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions using speleothems, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 75, 3915–3929, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2011.04.020, 2011.
Sigmond, M., Fyfe, J. C., and Swart, N. C.: Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 404–408, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y, 2018.
Sliwinski, J. T., Kost, O., Endres, L., Iglesias, M., Haghipour, N., González-Lemos, S., and Stoll, H. M.: Exploring soluble and colloidally transported trace elements in stalagmites: The strontium-yttrium connection, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 343, 64–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2022.12.023, 2023.
Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Eade, R., Athanasiadis, P., Bellucci, A., Bethke, I., Bilbao, R., Borchert, L. F., Caron, L. P., Counillon, F., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dunstone, N. J., Estella-Perez, V., Flavoni, S., Hermanson, L., Keenlyside, N., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mignot, J., Mochizuki, T., Modali, K., Monerie, P. A., Müller, W. A., Nicolí, D., Ortega, P., Pankatz, K., Pohlmann, H., Robson, J., Ruggieri, P., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Swingedouw, D., Wang, Y., Wild, S., Yeager, S., Yang, X., and Zhang, L.: North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply, Nature, 583, 796–800, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0, 2020.
Sosdian, S. M., Greenop, R., Hain, M. P., Foster, G. L., Pearson, P. N., and Lear, C. H.: Constraining the evolution of Neogene ocean carbonate chemistry using the boron isotope pH proxy, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 498, 362–376, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.06.017, 2018.
Spors, S.: Stable Water Isotope Characteristics of Recent Precipitation from Tiksi and Samoylov Island-Calibration of a Geoscientific Proxy for Northern Siberia, Bachelors thesis, Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften, Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49213/ (last access: 31 July 2024), 2018.
Spótl, C. and Vennemann, T. W.: Continuous-flow isotope ratio mass spectrometric analysis of carbonate minerals, Rapid Commun. Mass Sp., 17, 1004–1006, https://doi.org/10.1002/rcm.1010, 2003.
Stein, R., Fahl, K., Schreck, M., Knorr, G., Niessen, F., Forwick, M., Gebhardt, C., Jensen, L., Kaminski, M., Kopf, A., Matthiessen, J., Jokat, W., and Lohmann, G.: Evidence for ice-free summers in the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean, Nat. Commun., 7, 11148, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11148, 2016.
Steinthorsdottir, M., Jardine, P. E., and Rember, W. C.: Near-Future pCO2 During the Hot Miocene Climatic Optimum, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 36, e2020PA003900, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA003900, 2021a.
Steinthorsdottir, M., Coxall, H. K., de Boer, A. M., Huber, M., Barbolini, N., Bradshaw, C. D., Burls, N. J., Feakins, S. J., Gasson, E., Henderiks, J., Holbourn, A. E., Kiel, S., Kohn, M. J., Knorr, G., Kürschner, W. M., Lear, C. H., Liebrand, D., Lunt, D. J., Mörs, T., Pearson, P. N., Pound, M. J., Stoll, H., and Strömberg, C. A. E.: The Miocene: The Future of the Past, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 36, e2020PA004037, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004037, 2021b.
Stoll, H. M., Müller, W., and Prieto, M.: I-STAL, a model for interpretation of , and variations in speleothems and its forward and inverse application on seasonal to millennial scales, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 13, Q09004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GC004183, 2012.
Strauss, J., Fuchs, M., Hugelius, G., Miesner, F., Nitze, I., Opfergelt, S., Schuur, E., Treat, C., Turetsky, M., Yang, Y., and Grosse, G.: Organic matter storage and vulnerability in the permafrost domain, in: Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, Elsevier, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-99931-1.00164-1, 2024.
Super, J. R., Thomas, E., Pagani, M., Huber, M., O'Brien, C., and Hull, P. M.: North Atlantic temperature and pCO2 coupling in the early-middle Miocene, Geology, 46, 519–522, https://doi.org/10.1130/G40228.1, 2018.
Taylor, P. C., Boeke, R. C., Boisvert, L. N., Feldl, N., Henry, M., Huang, Y., Langen, P. L., Liu, W., Pithan, F., Sejas, S. A., and Tan, I.: Process Drivers, Inter-Model Spread, and the Path Forward: A Review of Amplified Arctic Warming, Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 758361, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.758361, 2022.
Töchterle, P., Baldo, A., Murton, J. B., Schenk, F., Edwards, R. L., Koltai, G., and Moseley, G. E.: Reconstructing Younger Dryas ground temperature and snow thickness from cave deposits, Clim. Past, 20, 1521–1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1521-2024, 2024.
Tooth, A. F. and Fairchild, I. J.: Soil and karst aquifer hydrological controls on the geochemical evolution of speleothem-forming drip waters, Crag Cave, southwest Ireland, J. Hydrol., 273, 51–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00349-9, 2003.
Treble, P. C., Fairchild, I. J., Griffiths, A., Baker, A., Meredith, K. T., Wood, A., and McGuire, E.: Impacts of cave air ventilation and in-cave prior calcite precipitation on Golgotha Cave dripwater chemistry, southwest Australia, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 127, 61–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.06.001, 2015.
Tremaine, D. M. and Froelich, P. N.: Speleothem trace element signatures: A hydrologic geochemical study of modern cave dripwaters and farmed calcite, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 121, 522–545, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2013.07.026, 2013.
Tremaine, D. M., Froelich, P. N., and Wang, Y.: Speleothem calcite farmed in situ: Modern calibration of δ18O and δ13C paleoclimate proxies in a continuously-monitored natural cave system, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 75, 4929–4950, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2011.06.005, 2011.
Umbo, S.: Accompanying datasets to Umbo et al., Speleothem evidence for late Micocene extreme Arctic amplification, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16965894, 2025.
Vaks, A., Mason, A. J., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Kononov, A. M., Osinzev, A. V., Rosensaft, M., Borshevsky, A., Gutareva, O. S., and Henderson, G. M.: Palaeoclimate evidence of vulnerable permafrost during times of low sea ice, Nature, 577, 221–225, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1880-1, 2020.
Vaks, A., Mason, A., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Giesche, A., Osinzev, A., Adrian, I., Kononov, A., Umbo, S., Lechleitner, F. A., Rosensaft, M., and Henderson, G. M.: Arctic speleothems reveal nearly permafrost-free Northern Hemisphere in the late Miocene, Nat Commun., 16, 5483, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60381-5, 2025.
Vihma, T.: Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review, Surv. Geophys., 35, 1175–1214, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0, 2014.
Wassenburg, J. A., Riechelmann, S., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., Riechelmann, D. F. C., Richter, D. K., Immenhauser, A., Terente, M., Constantin, S., Hachenberg, A., Hansen, M., and Scholz, D.: Calcite Mg and Sr partition coefficients in cave environments: Implications for interpreting prior calcite precipitation in speleothems, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 269, 581–596, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2019.11.011, 2020.
Westerhold, T., Marwan, N., Drury, A. J., Liebrand, D., Agnini, C., Anagnostou, E., Barnet, J. S. K., Bohaty, S. M., De Vleeschouwer, D., Florindo, F., Frederichs, T., Hodell, D. A., Holbourn, A. E., Kroon, D., Lauretano, V., Littler, K., Lourens, L. J., Lyle, M., Pälike, H., Röhl, U., Tian, J., Wilkens, R. H., Wilson, P. A., and Zachos, J. C.: An astronomically dated record of Earth's climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years, Science (1979), 369, 1383–1388, https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.ABA6853, 2020.
Wigley, T. M. L. and Brown, M. C.: The physics of caves, in: The Science of Speleology, edited by: Ford, T. D. and Cullingford, C. H. D., Academic Press, London, 329–358, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0016756800044873, 1976.
Xie, A., Zhu, J., Kang, S., Qin, X., Xu, B., and Wang, Y.: Polar amplification comparison among Earth's three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature, Sci. Rep.-UK, 12, 16548, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21060-3, 2022.
York, D., Evensen, N. M., Martınez, M. L., and De Basabe Delgado, J.: Unified equations for the slope, intercept, and standard errors of the best straight line, Am. J. Phys., 72, 367–375, https://doi.org/10.1119/1.1632486, 2004.
Short summary
We use cave rocks to reconstruct northern Siberian climate in 8.68 ± 0.09 Ma. We show that when the global average temperature was about 4.5 °C warmer than today (similar to what is expected in the coming decades should carbon emissions continue unabated), the Siberian Arctic temperature increased by more than 18 °C.
We use cave rocks to reconstruct northern Siberian climate in 8.68 ± 0.09 Ma. We show that when...