Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Investigating similarities and differences of the penultimate and last glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model
Aurélien Quiquet
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Didier M. Roche
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Earth and Climate Cluster, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Related authors
Louise Abot, Aurélien Quiquet, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past, 21, 1123–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1123-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1123-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This modeling study examines how the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets interact with oceans during the last glacial period. Amplified melting beneath the ice shelves results in increased freshwater release, cooling the Northern Hemisphere and slowing ocean circulation. Freshwater release and localized ocean cooling dampen ice discharges, showing complex feedback at the interface. This study emphasizes the need for additional modeling studies to clarify the role of the ocean in past abrupt events.
Maxence Menthon, Pepijn Bakker, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, and Ronja Reese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-777, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ice-ocean interaction is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the Antarctic ice sheet. Here we implement a basal ice shelf melt module (PICO) in a ice sheet model (GRISLI) and test six simple statistical methods to calibrate this module. We show that calculating the mean absolute error of bins best fits the observational datasets under multiple conditions. We also assess the impact of the module implementation and calibration choice on future projections until 2300.
Thi-Khanh-Dieu Hoang, Aurélien Quiquet, Christophe Dumas, Andreas Born, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 21, 27–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the simulation of surface mass balance (SMB) that influences the advance–retreat of ice sheets, we run a snow model, the BErgen Snow SImulator (BESSI), with transient climate forcing obtained from an Earth system model, iLOVECLIM, over Greenland and Antarctica during the Last Interglacial (LIG; 130–116 ka). Compared to the simple existing SMB scheme of iLOVECLIM, BESSI gives more details about SMB processes with higher physics constraints while maintaining a low computational cost.
Victor van Aalderen, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, and Aurélien Quiquet
Clim. Past, 20, 187–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present idealized numerical experiments to test the main mechanisms that triggered the deglaciation of the past Eurasian ice sheet. Simulations were performed with the GRISLI2.0 ice sheet model. The results indicate that the Eurasian ice sheet was primarily driven by surface melting, due to increased atmospheric temperatures. Basal melting below the ice shelves is only a significant driver if ocean temperatures increase by nearly 10 °C, in contrast with the findings of previous studies.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice-sheet–climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events, and rapid warming at high latitudes is here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
The Cryosphere, 15, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Greenland. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. Mass loss is primarily driven by atmospheric warming, while oceanic forcing contributes to a relatively smaller uncertainty in our simulations.
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
The Cryosphere, 15, 1031–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Antarctica. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show that increased precipitation in the future in some cases mitigates this contribution, with positive to negative values in 2100 depending of the climate forcing used. Sub-shelf-basal-melt uncertainties induce large differences in simulated grounding-line retreats.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Louise Abot, Aurélien Quiquet, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past, 21, 1123–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1123-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1123-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This modeling study examines how the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets interact with oceans during the last glacial period. Amplified melting beneath the ice shelves results in increased freshwater release, cooling the Northern Hemisphere and slowing ocean circulation. Freshwater release and localized ocean cooling dampen ice discharges, showing complex feedback at the interface. This study emphasizes the need for additional modeling studies to clarify the role of the ocean in past abrupt events.
Thibaut Caley, Niclas Rieger, Martin Werner, Claire Waelbroeck, Héloïse Barathieu, Tamara Happé, and Didier M. Roche
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2459, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Density of seawater is a critical property that controls ocean dynamics. We developed the use of the δ18Oc of planktonic foraminifera as a surface paleodensity proxy for the whole ocean using Bayesian regression models calibrated to annual surface density. We reconstructed annual surface density during the last glacial maximum and late Holocene time periods. These results will be used to evaluate numerical climate models in their ability to simulate past ocean surface density.
Maxence Menthon, Pepijn Bakker, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, and Ronja Reese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-777, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ice-ocean interaction is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the Antarctic ice sheet. Here we implement a basal ice shelf melt module (PICO) in a ice sheet model (GRISLI) and test six simple statistical methods to calibrate this module. We show that calculating the mean absolute error of bins best fits the observational datasets under multiple conditions. We also assess the impact of the module implementation and calibration choice on future projections until 2300.
Thi-Khanh-Dieu Hoang, Aurélien Quiquet, Christophe Dumas, Andreas Born, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 21, 27–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the simulation of surface mass balance (SMB) that influences the advance–retreat of ice sheets, we run a snow model, the BErgen Snow SImulator (BESSI), with transient climate forcing obtained from an Earth system model, iLOVECLIM, over Greenland and Antarctica during the Last Interglacial (LIG; 130–116 ka). Compared to the simple existing SMB scheme of iLOVECLIM, BESSI gives more details about SMB processes with higher physics constraints while maintaining a low computational cost.
Thomas Extier, Thibaut Caley, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2117–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes are used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle for different time periods in climatic archive and climate models. We present the implementation of the δ2H and δ17O water isotopes in the coupled climate model iLOVECLIM and calculate the d- and 17O-excess. Results of a simulation under preindustrial conditions show that the model correctly reproduces the water isotope distribution in the atmosphere and ocean in comparison to data and other global circulation models.
Victor van Aalderen, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, and Aurélien Quiquet
Clim. Past, 20, 187–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present idealized numerical experiments to test the main mechanisms that triggered the deglaciation of the past Eurasian ice sheet. Simulations were performed with the GRISLI2.0 ice sheet model. The results indicate that the Eurasian ice sheet was primarily driven by surface melting, due to increased atmospheric temperatures. Basal melting below the ice shelves is only a significant driver if ocean temperatures increase by nearly 10 °C, in contrast with the findings of previous studies.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice-sheet–climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events, and rapid warming at high latitudes is here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Fanny Lhardy, Nathaëlle Bouttes, Didier M. Roche, Xavier Crosta, Claire Waelbroeck, and Didier Paillard
Clim. Past, 17, 1139–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models struggle to simulate a LGM ocean circulation in agreement with paleotracer data. Using a set of simulations, we test the impact of boundary conditions and other modelling choices. Model–data comparisons of sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice cover support an overall cold Southern Ocean, with implications on the AMOC strength. Changes in implemented boundary conditions are not sufficient to simulate a shallower AMOC; other mechanisms to better represent convection are required.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
The Cryosphere, 15, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Greenland. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. Mass loss is primarily driven by atmospheric warming, while oceanic forcing contributes to a relatively smaller uncertainty in our simulations.
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
The Cryosphere, 15, 1031–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Antarctica. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show that increased precipitation in the future in some cases mitigates this contribution, with positive to negative values in 2100 depending of the climate forcing used. Sub-shelf-basal-melt uncertainties induce large differences in simulated grounding-line retreats.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013. a
Alley, R. B.: The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00062-1, 2000. a
Andersen, K. K., Azuma, N., Barnola, J.-M., Bigler, M., Biscaye, P., Caillon, N., Chappellaz, J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Flückiger, J., Fritzsche, D., Fujii, Y., Goto-Azuma, K., Grønvold, K., Gundestrup, N. S., Hansson, M., Huber, C., Hvidberg, C. S., Johnsen, S. J., Jonsell, U., Jouzel, J., Kipfstuhl, S., Landais, A., Leuenberger, M., Lorrain, R., Masson-Delmotte, V., Miller, H., Motoyama, H., Narita, H., Popp, T., Rasmussen, S. O., Raynaud, D., Rothlisberger, R., Ruth, U., Samyn, D., Schwander, J., Shoji, H., Siggard-Andersen, M.-L., Steffensen, J. P., Stocker, T., Sveinbjörnsdóttir, A. E., Svensson, A., Takata, M., Tison, J.-L., Thorsteinsson, T., Watanabe, O., Wilhelms, F., White, J. W. C., and North Greenland Ice Core Project members: High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 431, 147–151, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02805, 2004. a, b
Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., and Mauritsen, T.: A new global surface temperature reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 18, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, 2022. a
Batchelor, C. L., Margold, M., Krapp, M., Murton, D. K., Dalton, A. S., Gibbard, P. L., Stokes, C. R., Murton, J. B., and Manica, A.: The configuration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Quaternary, Nat. Commun., 10, 3713, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11601-2, 2019. a, b
Beckmann, A. and Goosse, H.: A parameterization of ice shelf–ocean interaction for climate models, Ocean Model., 5, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00019-7, 2003. a
Beghin, P., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., and Ritz, C.: How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate?, Clim. Past, 11, 1467–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1467-2015, 2015. a
Berger, A.: Long-Term Variations of Daily Insolation and Quaternary Climatic Changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:LTVODI>2.0.CO;2, 1978. a, b, c
Böhm, E., Lippold, J., Gutjahr, M., Frank, M., Blaser, P., Antz, B., Fohlmeister, J., Frank, N., Andersen, M. B., and Deininger, M.: Strong and deep Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last glacial cycle, Nature, 517, 73–76, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14059, 2015. a, b, c, d, e, f
Bouttes, N., Lhardy, F., Quiquet, A., Paillard, D., Goosse, H., and Roche, D. M.: Deglacial climate changes as forced by different ice sheet reconstructions, Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023. a, b
Briggs, R. D., Pollard, D., and Tarasov, L.: A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 103, 91–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.003, 2014. a
Buizert, C., Gkinis, V., Severinghaus, J. P., He, F., Lecavalier, B. S., Kindler, P., Leuenberger, M., Carlson, A. E., Vinther, B., Masson-Delmotte, V., White, J. W. C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Brook, E. J.: Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation, Science, 345, 1177–1180, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254961, 2014. a
Buizert, C., Keisling, B. A., Box, J. E., He, F., Carlson, A. E., Sinclair, G., and DeConto, R. M.: Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last Deglaciation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1905–1914, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075601, 2018. a
Buizert, C., Fudge, T. J., Roberts, W. H. G., Steig, E. J., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Ritz, C., Lefebvre, E., Edwards, J., Kawamura, K., Oyabu, I., Motoyama, H., Kahle, E. C., Jones, T. R., Abe-Ouchi, A., Obase, T., Martin, C., Corr, H., Severinghaus, J. P., Beaudette, R., Epifanio, J. A., Brook, E. J., Martin, K., Chappellaz, J., Aoki, S., Nakazawa, T., Sowers, T. A., Alley, R. B., Ahn, J., Sigl, M., Severi, M., Dunbar, N. W., Svensson, A., Fegyveresi, J. M., He, C., Liu, Z., Zhu, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Lipenkov, V. Y., Kageyama, M., and Schwander, J.: Antarctic surface temperature and elevation during the Last Glacial Maximum, Science, 372, 1097–1101, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd2897, 2021. a
Caley, T., Roche, D. M., and Renssen, H.: Orbital Asian summer monsoon dynamics revealed using an isotope-enabled global climate model, Nat. Commun., 5, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6371, 2014. a
Calov, R., Robinson, A., Perrette, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Simulating the Greenland ice sheet under present-day and palaeo constraints including a new discharge parameterization, The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, 2015. a
Capron, E., Govin, A., Feng, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Wolff, E. W.: Critical evaluation of climate syntheses to benchmark CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka Last Interglacial simulations in the high-latitude regions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 168, 137–150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.04.019, 2017. a, b
Carlson, A. E.: Why there was not a Younger Dryas-like event during the Penultimate Deglaciation, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 882–887, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.02.004, 2008. a
Charbit, S., Kageyama, M., Roche, D., Ritz, C., and Ramstein, G.: Investigating the mechanisms leading to the deglaciation of past continental northern hemisphere ice sheets with the CLIMBER–GREMLINS coupled model, Global Planet. Change, 48, 253–273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.01.002, 2005. a
Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Sinha, A., Spötl, C., Yi, L., Chen, S., Kelly, M., Kathayat, G., Wang, X., Li, X., Kong, X., Wang, Y., Ning, Y., and Zhang, H.: The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations, Nature, 534, 640–646, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18591, 2016. a
Clark, P. U., He, F., Golledge, N. R., Mitrovica, J. X., Dutton, A., Hoffman, J. S., and Dendy, S.: Oceanic forcing of penultimate deglacial and last interglacial sea-level rise, Nature, 577, 660–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-1931-7, 2020. a, b
Colleoni, F., Wekerle, C., Näslund, J.-O., Brandefelt, J., and Masina, S.: Constraint on the penultimate glacial maximum Northern Hemisphere ice topography (≈ 140 kyrs BP), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 137, 97–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.01.024, 2016. a, b
Crow, B. R., Tarasov, L., Schulz, M., and Prange, M.: Uncertainties originating from GCM downscaling and bias correction with application to the MIS-11c Greenland Ice Sheet, Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024. a
Deaney, E. L., Barker, S., and van de Flierdt, T.: Timing and nature of AMOC recovery across Termination 2 and magnitude of deglacial CO2 change, Nat. Commun., 8, 14595, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14595, 2017. a, b
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Deschamps, P., Durand, N., Bard, E., Hamelin, B., Camoin, G., Thomas, A. L., Henderson, G. M., Okuno, J., and Yokoyama, Y.: Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago, Nature, 483, 559, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10902, 2012. a
Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349, aaa4019, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4019, 2015. a, b
Dyer, B., Austermann, J., D’Andrea, W. J., Creel, R. C., Sandstrom, M. R., Cashman, M., Rovere, A., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level trends across The Bahamas constrain peak last interglacial ice melt, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2026839118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2026839118, 2021. a
Friedrich, T., Timmermann, A., Menviel, L., Elison Timm, O., Mouchet, A., and Roche, D. M.: The mechanism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-377-2010, 2010. a
Fyke, J. G., Weaver, A. J., Pollard, D., Eby, M., Carter, L., and Mackintosh, A.: A new coupled ice sheet/climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 117–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-117-2011, 2011. a
Ganopolski, A. and Brovkin, V.: Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017. a
Ganopolski, A. and Calov, R.: The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles, Clim. Past, 7, 1415–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1415-2011, 2011. a
Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M.-F., and Fichefet, T.: Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 2195–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, 2016. a, b
Goosse, H., Brovkin, V., Fichefet, T., Haarsma, R., Huybrechts, P., Jongma, J., Mouchet, A., Selten, F., Barriat, P.-Y., Campin, J.-M., Deleersnijder, E., Driesschaert, E., Goelzer, H., Janssens, I., Loutre, M.-F., Morales Maqueda, M. A., Opsteegh, T., Mathieu, P.-P., Munhoven, G., Pettersson, E. J., Renssen, H., Roche, D. M., Schaeffer, M., Tartinville, B., Timmermann, A., and Weber, S. L.: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010, 2010. a
Govin, A., Capron, E., Tzedakis, P. C., Verheyden, S., Ghaleb, B., Hillaire-Marcel, C., St-Onge, G., Stoner, J. S., Bassinot, F., Bazin, L., Blunier, T., Combourieu-Nebout, N., El Ouahabi, A., Genty, D., Gersonde, R., Jimenez-Amat, P., Landais, A., Martrat, B., Masson-Delmotte, V., Parrenin, F., Seidenkrantz, M. S., Veres, D., Waelbroeck, C., and Zahn, R.: Sequence of events from the onset to the demise of the Last Interglacial: Evaluating strengths and limitations of chronologies used in climatic archives, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 129, 1–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.09.018, 2015. a, b
Gowan, E. J., Zhang, X., Khosravi, S., Rovere, A., Stocchi, P., Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J.-I., and Lohmann, G.: A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years, Nat. Commun., 12, 1199, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21469-w, 2021. a
Grant, K. M., Rohling, E. J., Ramsey, C. B., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Florindo, F., Heslop, D., Marra, F., Roberts, A. P., Tamisiea, M. E., and Williams, F.: Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles, Nat. Commun., 5, 5076, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6076, 2014. a
Gregoire, L. J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Valdes, P. J., and Ivanovic, R.: Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2016GL070356, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070356, 2016. a
He, F., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., Carlson, A. E., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Kutzbach, J. E.: Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation, Nature, 494, 81–85, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11822, 2013. a
Heinemann, M., Timmermann, A., Elison Timm, O., Saito, F., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Deglacial ice sheet meltdown: orbital pacemaking and CO2 effects, Clim. Past, 10, 1567–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, 2014. a
Heinrich, H.: Origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean during the past 130,000 years, Quaternary Res., 29, 142–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(88)90057-9, 1988. a
Hemming, S. R.: Heinrich events: Massive late Pleistocene detritus layers of the North Atlantic and their global climate imprint, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG1005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003RG000128, 2004. a
Hughes, P. D. and Gibbard, P. L.: Global glacier dynamics during 100 ka Pleistocene glacial cycles, Quaternary Res., 90, 222–243, https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2018.37, 2018. a
Jongma, J. I., Prange, M., Renssen, H., and Schulz, M.: Amplification of Holocene multicentennial climate forcing by mode transitions in North Atlantic overturning circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030642, 2007. a
Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S., Hoffmann, G., Minster, B., Nouet, J., Barnola, J. M., Chappellaz, J., Fischer, H., Gallet, J. C., Johnsen, S., Leuenberger, M., Loulergue, L., Luethi, D., Oerter, H., Parrenin, F., Raisbeck, G., Raynaud, D., Schilt, A., Schwander, J., Selmo, E., Souchez, R., Spahni, R., Stauffer, B., Steffensen, J. P., Stenni, B., Stocker, T. F., Tison, J. L., Werner, M., and Wolff, E. W.: Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years, Science, 317, 793–796, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1141038, 2007. a
Kageyama, M., Harrison, S. P., Kapsch, M.-L., Lofverstrom, M., Lora, J. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Vadsaria, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bouttes, N., Chandan, D., Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R. F., Izumi, K., LeGrande, A. N., Lhardy, F., Lohmann, G., Morozova, P. A., Ohgaito, R., Paul, A., Peltier, W. R., Poulsen, C. J., Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Shi, X., Tierney, J. E., Valdes, P. J., Volodin, E., and Zhu, J.: The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations, Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021. a
Kapsch, M.-L., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., and Schannwell, C.: Ocean Response in Transient Simulations of the Last Deglaciation Dominated by Underlying Ice-Sheet Reconstruction and Method of Meltwater Distribution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096767, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096767, 2022. a
Kessler, A., Bouttes, N., Roche, D. M., Ninnemann, U. S., and Tjiputra, J.: Dynamics of Spontaneous (Multi) Centennial-Scale Variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength During the Last Interglacial, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 35, e2020PA003913, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA003913, 2020. a
Krebs-Kanzow, U., Gierz, P., Rodehacke, C. B., Xu, S., Yang, H., and Lohmann, G.: The diurnal Energy Balance Model (dEBM): a convenient surface mass balance solution for ice sheets in Earth system modeling, The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, 2021. a
Lambeck, K., Purcell, A., Funder, S., KJæR, K. H., Larsen, E., and Moller, P.: Constraints on the Late Saalian to early Middle Weichselian ice sheet of Eurasia from field data and rebound modelling, Boreas, 35, 539–575, https://doi.org/10.1080/03009480600781875, 2006. a, b
Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y., and Sambridge, M.: Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 15296, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411762111, 2014. a, b
Landais, A., Masson-Delmotte, V., Capron, E., Langebroek, P. M., Bakker, P., Stone, E. J., Merz, N., Raible, C. C., Fischer, H., Orsi, A., Prié, F., Vinther, B., and Dahl-Jensen, D.: How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?, Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016. a, b
Lang, N. and Wolff, E. W.: Interglacial and glacial variability from the last 800 ka in marine, ice and terrestrial archives, Clim. Past, 7, 361–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-361-2011, 2011. a
Lemieux-Dudon, B., Blayo, E., Petit, J.-R., Waelbroeck, C., Svensson, A., Ritz, C., Barnola, J.-M., Narcisi, B. M., and Parrenin, F.: Consistent dating for Antarctic and Greenland ice cores, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 8–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.010, 2010. a, b
Lhardy, F., Bouttes, N., Roche, D. M., Crosta, X., Waelbroeck, C., and Paillard, D.: Impact of Southern Ocean surface conditions on deep ocean circulation during the LGM: a model analysis, Clim. Past, 17, 1139–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1139-2021, 2021. a
Liakka, J., Löfverström, M., and Colleoni, F.: The impact of the North American glacial topography on the evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 12, 1225–1241, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1225-2016, 2016. a
Lofverstrom, M. and Liakka, J.: The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation, The Cryosphere, 12, 1499–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1499-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Lohmann, G., Wagner, A., and Prange, M.: Resolution of the atmospheric model matters for the Northern Hemisphere Mid-Holocene climate, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 93, 101206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101206, 2021. a
Loutre, M. F., Mouchet, A., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Goelzer, H., and Huybrechts, P.: Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past, Clim. Past, 7, 511–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-511-2011, 2011. a
Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.-M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., and Stocker, T. F.: High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present, Nature, 453, 379–382, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06949, 2008. a, b, c
Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Schmidt, M. W., Gene Henry, L., Curry, W. B., Skinner, L. C., Mulitza, S., Zhang, R., and Chang, P.: Muted change in Atlantic overturning circulation over some glacial-aged Heinrich events, Nat. Geosci., 7, 144–150, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2045, 2014. a
Magnusdottir, G. and Haynes, P. H.: Reflection of Planetary Waves in Three-Dimensional Tropospheric Flows, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 652–670, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<0652:ROPWIT>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Martrat, B., Jimenez-Amat, P., Zahn, R., and Grimalt, J. O.: Similarities and dissimilarities between the last two deglaciations and interglaciations in the North Atlantic region, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 99, 122–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.06.016, 2014. a, b
McManus, J. F., Francois, R., Gherardi, J.-M., Keigwin, L. D., and Brown-Leger, S.: Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes, Nature, 428, 834–837, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02494, 2004. a
Menviel, L., Timmermann, A., Timm, O. E., and Mouchet, A.: Deconstructing the Last Glacial termination: the role of millennial and orbital-scale forcings, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 1155–1172, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.02.005, 2011. a
NEEM community members: Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core, Nature, 493, 489–494, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11789, 2013. a
Ng, H. C., Robinson, L. F., McManus, J. F., Mohamed, K. J., Jacobel, A. W., Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., and Chen, T.: Coherent deglacial changes in western Atlantic Ocean circulation, Nat. Commun., 9, 2947, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05312-3, 2018. a
Niu, L., Lohmann, G., Hinck, S., Gowan, E. J., and Krebs-Kanzow, U.: The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial cycle using PMIP3 models, J. Glaciol., 65, 645–661, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.42, 2019. a
Obase, T. and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Abrupt Bølling-Allerød Warming Simulated under Gradual Forcing of the Last Deglaciation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11397–11405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084675, 2019. a
Obase, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Saito, F.: Abrupt climate changes in the last two deglaciations simulated with different Northern ice sheet discharge and insolation, Sci. Rep., 11, 22359, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01651-2, 2021. a
Obrochta, S. P., Crowley, T. J., Channell, J. E. T., Hodell, D. A., Baker, P. A., Seki, A., and Yokoyama, Y.: Climate variability and ice-sheet dynamics during the last three glaciations, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 406, 198–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.09.004, 2014. a, b
Opsteegh, J. D., Haarsma, R. J., Selten, F. M., and Kattenberg, A.: ECBILT: a dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models, Tellus A, 50, 348–367, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1998.t01-1-00007.x, 1998. a
Pollard, D.: A simple parameterization for ice sheet ablation rate, Tellus, 32, 384–388, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1980.tb00965.x, 1980. a
Pollard, O. G., Barlow, N. L. M., Gregoire, L. J., Gomez, N., Cartelle, V., Ely, J. C., and Astfalck, L. C.: Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6), The Cryosphere, 17, 4751–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d
Polvani, L. M., Scott, R. K., and Thomas, S. J.: Numerically Converged Solutions of the Global Primitive Equations for Testing the Dynamical Core of Atmospheric GCMs, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2539–2552, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2788.1, 2004. a
Quiquet, A. and Roche, D. M.: Investigating similarities and differences of the penultimate and last glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet – climate model, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12168800, 2024. a
Quiquet, A., Dumas, C., Ritz, C., Peyaud, V., and Roche, D. M.: The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5003–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, 2018a. a
Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Dumas, C., and Paillard, D.: Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-453-2018, 2018b. a
Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Dumas, C., Bouttes, N., and Lhardy, F.: Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model, Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Rabineau, M., Berné, S., Olivet, J.-L., Aslanian, D., Guillocheau, F., and Joseph, P.: Paleo sea levels reconsidered from direct observation of paleoshoreline position during Glacial Maxima (for the last 500,000 yr), Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 252, 119–137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2006.09.033, 2006. a
Renssen, H., Mairesse, A., Goosse, H., Mathiot, P., Heiri, O., Roche, D. M., Nisancioglu, K. H., and Valdes, P. J.: Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period, Nat. Geosci., 8, 946–949, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2557, 2015. a
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change, The Cryosphere, 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-129-2010, 2010. a, b
Roche, D. M., Dumas, C., Bügelmayer, M., Charbit, S., and Ritz, C.: Adding a dynamical cryosphere to iLOVECLIM (version 1.0): coupling with the GRISLI ice-sheet model, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1377–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1377-2014, 2014. a
Rohling, E. J., Hibbert, F. D., Williams, F. H., Grant, K. M., Marino, G., Foster, G. L., Hennekam, R., de Lange, G. J., Roberts, A. P., Yu, J., Webster, J. M., and Yokoyama, Y.: Differences between the last two glacial maxima and implications for ice-sheet, δ18O, and sea-level reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 176, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.09.009, 2017. a
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. a
Sommers, A. N., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Lipscomb, W. H., Lofverstrom, M., Shafer, S. L., Bartlein, P. J., Brady, E. C., Kluzek, E., Leguy, G., Thayer-Calder, K., and Tomas, R. A.: Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2-CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36, e2021PA004272, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004272, 2021. a, b, c, d
Spratt, R. M. and Lisiecki, L. E.: A Late Pleistocene sea level stack, Clim. Past, 12, 1079–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1079-2016, 2016. a
Stoll, H. M., Cacho, I., Gasson, E., Sliwinski, J., Kost, O., Moreno, A., Iglesias, M., Torner, J., Perez-Mejias, C., Haghipour, N., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L.: Rapid northern hemisphere ice sheet melting during the penultimate deglaciation, Nat. Commun., 13, 3819, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31619-3, 2022. a, b
Stone, E. J., Capron, E., Lunt, D. J., Payne, A. J., Singarayer, J. S., Valdes, P. J., and Wolff, E. W.: Impact of meltwater on high-latitude early Last Interglacial climate, Clim. Past, 12, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, 2016. a
Svendsen, J. I., Alexanderson, H., Astakhov, V. I., Demidov, I., Dowdeswell, J. A., Funder, S., Gataullin, V., Henriksen, M., Hjort, C., Houmark-Nielsen, M., Hubberten, H. W., Ingólfsson, Ó., Jakobsson, M., Kjær, K. H., Larsen, E., Lokrantz, H., Lunkka, J. P., Lyså, A., Mangerud, J., Matiouchkov, A., Murray, A., Möller, P., Niessen, F., Nikolskaya, O., Polyak, L., Saarnisto, M., Siegert, C., Siegert, M. J., Spielhagen, R. F., and Stein, R.: Late Quaternary ice sheet history of northern Eurasia, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 1229–1271, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.12.008, 2004. a, b, c, d
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Greenland glacial history and local geodynamic consequences, Geophys. J. Int., 150, 198–229, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2002.01702.x, 2002. a
Tarasov, L., Dyke, A. S., Neal, R. M., and Peltier, W. R.: A data-calibrated distribution of deglacial chronologies for the North American ice complex from glaciological modeling, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 315–316, 30–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.09.010, 2012. a
van Aalderen, V., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., and Quiquet, A.: Relative importance of the mechanisms triggering the Eurasian ice sheet deglaciation in the GRISLI2.0 ice sheet model, Clim. Past, 20, 187–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024, 2024. a
van den Berg, J., van de Wal, R., and Oerlemans, H.: A mass balance model for the Eurasian Ice Sheet for the last 120,000 years, Global Planet. Change, 61, 194–208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.08.015, 2008. a, b
Waelbroeck, C., Labeyrie, L., Michel, E., Duplessy, J. C., McManus, J. F., Lambeck, K., Balbon, E., and Labracherie, M.: Sea-level and deep water temperature changes derived from benthic foraminifera isotopic records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 295–305, https://doi.org/16/S0277-3791(01)00101-9, 2002. a, b
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A.: The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018. a
Short summary
In this work, we use the same experimental protocol to simulate the last two glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model. Major differences among the two terminations are that the ice sheets retreat earlier and the Atlantic oceanic circulation is more prone to collapse during the penultimate termination. However, for both terminations the pattern of ice retreat is similar, and this retreat is primarily explained by orbital forcing changes and greenhouse gas concentration changes.
In this work, we use the same experimental protocol to simulate the last two glacial...