the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A multi-ice-core, annual-layer-counted Greenland ice-core chronology for the last 3800 years: GICC21
Mai Winstrup
Tobias Erhardt
Eliza Cook
Camilla Marie Jensen
Anders Svensson
Bo Møllesøe Vinther
Raimund Muscheler
Sune Olander Rasmussen
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- Final revised paper (published on 24 May 2022)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 17 Nov 2021)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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AC1: 'Notification of edit in figure 10', Giulia Sinnl, 19 Nov 2021
We intend to edit fig.10 as shown in the attachment. We kindly ask readers/reviewers to refer to the new figure and the values therein instead of the one shown in the manuscript.
Two changes were made: the isotope stack was altered in response to a data-availability issue (fig 10 b.1) and the duration of the layer thickness minimum was re-measured after fixing a coding issue (fig. 10 c.3). These changes to fig.10 do not affect the conclusions of the rest of the manuscript.
We apologize for the inconvenience.
Giulia Sinnl
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RC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-155', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Dec 2021
General comments:
In this study a new common time scale for the Greenland ice cores called GICC21 for the last ~ 3800 years is presented. In the first part of the paper, the authors discuss their improvements of annual layer counted dating and synchronization of six Greenland ice cores and the uncertainties of the method. The new timescale is subsequently compared to the previous GICC05. In the second part of the paper, the authors investigate impacts of volcanic eruptions on the isotope signal and annual layer thickness and discuss the potential presence of two mediterranean eruptions in the Greenland ice core records.
The development of a new common Greenland ice-core chronology including the two most recent cores NEEM and EastGRIP is an important step forward to better compare ice core records with other climate archives. It is a valuable contribution to Climate of the Past and should be published.
The manuscript is very well written and clearly structured. The argumentation is stringent and easy to follow in most sections. The first part of the manuscript is very detailed and discusses in depth the development and the uncertainty assessment of the new chronology. The authors put a lot of effort into the assessment of the chronology and its uncertainties, which I appreciate. However, the second part of the manuscript, starting with the discussion of the ice core records around volcanic eruptions, is lacking a bit of depth and critical evaluation in some parts. Regarding the overall length of the paper, I would like the authors to consider splitting the manuscript into two: Keeping the first part as a technical and methodological assessment of the new GICC21 chronology and dedicating the second part to the scientific investigations of the volcanic eruptions and the IntCal / 10Be discussions. I think the second part of the manuscript could benefit from some more in-depth analysis.
I have some specific comments and questions especially about sections 3.4, 3.5, 5.2 and 5.3
Specific comments:
L18: Radiocarbon dated evidence. please clarify. What kind of evidence? Evidence for what?
L24: Late Holocene – please give time frame
L33: a short description of the general differences in dating methods, stratigraphic and relative vs. absolute age markers and their pros and cons in terms of error would be helpful.
L47: That is quite a bold statement. We know that isotopes can be used as temperature proxies but only to a very limited extend and under certain circumstances, also keeping in mind all the post-depositional effects. Please weaken this statement and also cite some more recent studies, for example: Laepple, T. et al. On the similarity and apparent cycles of isotopic variations in East Antarctic snow pits, The Cryosphere, 12, 169–187, 2018.
L52: Reference for high and stable snow deposition?
L108: why do nitrate peaks coincide with ammonium peaks? Please explain, give reference.
L110ff: please add the tritium peak as a radiometric marker
L157: what bias do you refer to? Overcounting, undercounting or something else? Please clarify.
L175: Please define WDC
Table 1: Accumulation given in m total or m.w.e.?
L252ff: can you please give depth resolutions for the NEEM and NEEM-2011-S1 data?
L265ff: Depth resolution for GRIP data?
L275ff: Depth resolution for DYE-3 data?
L283-290: Nice overview of the data processing steps
L306f: Please clarify that sentence. What do you mean exactly by pre-processing? What was the control data?
337-340: I don’t really understand the knowledge gain by inverting and log transforming the ECM into pseudo NH4+. In my opinion this does not give any additional information and rather creates apparent alignments which are completely artificial. Either clarify the benefits of the pseudo-ammonium or take it out (also in Fig. 2), because I think it could be misleading.
L341: Clarify reference datum
L345-355: Using both times scales (b2k and CE) can be confusing for the reader. I would recommend to use b2k throughout the manuscript and only additionally refer to CE for some of the historical events where the CE age is well known.
Fig.2: would be good to either use more distinct colors for pseudo NH4+ and NH4+ or take out the pseudo signal completely (see comment above). Please add NH4+ on the y-axis, not just ppb. Why was the big ammonium peak between 214 and 216 m in North GRIP not used for matching? Seems like an unusual gap and as if you could find matching features at least in GRIP and DYE. Contrarily some matchpoints are not very convincing, e.g. nr. 5 in EastGRIP and GRIP.
Table 2: I’m not sure if it is helpful to calculate the total score, because for example for Laki the total score is two, but four out of six cores undercounted it. Seems to be misleading and not necessary for the fine tuning procedure in my opinion.
L424: I can’t find the 17% improvement in Table 3
L420-425 and Table 3: I would recommend to shorted or take out the comparison between DYE-3 and the SWG Greenland temperatures as well as the correlation study between GRIP and DYE-3 isotopes. I would not call the improvement of correlation “substantially”, even if it is 17% and for the SWG temperatures the authors themselves state that there is no significant change. As it is not relevant for the further discussion I would remove this paragraph.
L455: What exactly do you mean by historical evidence? Is that referring to volcanic eruptions?
L461: what kind of local effects do you refer to? Please clarify.
L467-486: That section needs some clarification in my point of view. First, I think it should be emphasized that for the youngest part the uncertainty is ~2 years, that important statement is somehow lost in the text in line 471. Then follows the calculation of the SC uncertainty compared to the fine tuned record using convolution of the individual probability distributions of the cores. Looking at Fig. S3 it seems as if there are systematic offsets towards over- or undercounting for certain cores and the differences can be quite significant (e.g. panel d or k in Fig. S3). I am therefore wondering if the convolution that weights each core equally is the best method to assess this uncertainty or if there should be a more individual assessment for each core similar to section 3.3
L493: This number is the key finding of the section if I understand it correctly and should be emphasized.
L495-508, Fig. 4 and Table 5: I think this section could be shortened and needs some clarification. It is currently a little confusing. I don’t think the fine tuning of the obtained prob-SC and the bias correction are necessary, or maybe the conclusion of that correction should be clarified. Also I think Fig. 4 and Table 5 could be moved to the supplement if not discarded. The consequences of the outcome of 0.24 years of uncertainty after bias correction of the SC counting is left uncommented to some extent. It is also somehow unrelated to the final statement in L505ff where the uncertainty of the fine tuning process is very vaguely defined as “smaller than the bias correction itself” and an overall uncertainty of 1 year every 100 layers is deduced. Please clarify and shorten that paragraph with respect to these issues.
Fig.5: What caused the outlier at about 3500 years?
L535 and equation 1: Please explain a little more how equation 1 was constructed. I assume the 2 denotes the error for ages younger than Samalas? Does absolute uncertainty mean the result of eq. 1 is the +/- range of the referred age?
L556f and Fig.: 6: What causes the common uncertainty excursion in DYE-3 and EastGRIP around 600 b2k? Is that just coincidence? Could be addressed a little more in the main text and not just in the caption of Fig. 7
L607-641 and Fig. 9a: It would be interesting in this discussion to see a direct comparison between GICC21 and IntCal20. The advantages of GICC21 over GICC05 have been discussed in the section before. Why not show something like GICC21-IntCal20 in Fig. 9a? that would help to understand the interpretation of Fig. 9b
L641: Why do you still refer the uncertainty to IntCal 13 here and not IntCal 20? Please clarify.
L651: That is quite a bold statement. I would recommend to weaken it. As was stated, there are some differences in the production signals and the wiggle matching is not always entirely convincing (e.g. at about 3650 b2k). I think the underlying processes and uncertainties of IntCal 20 as as well as the 10Be record are rather complicated, so I would be careful with the conclusion you draw.
L658: I wonder if stacking all of the core signals and trying to find common features of volcanic eruptions is the best way to approach this. Given the geographical and meteorological differences of the core locations, it might be more meaningful to look at the cores separately on the new common time scale. This could also be done additionally to the investigation of the common features. It would be interesting to see to what level the single cores contribute to the stack. This is my main point of criticism for this section.
L678: The finding that NorthGRIP, GRIP and DYE-3 return a minimum in isotope but not in layer thickness, but the full stack (basically only adding NEEM and EastGRIP) does, could hint to a more local feature? A little more discussion of this result would be good.
L681: Again, it would be interesting to see the single core reactions compared to the stack, if only in the supplement. Can you put the retrieved numbers into context? What does a 0.12‰ drop in isotopes compare to? e.g. the last deglaciation or changes in the Holocene? I’m missing a quantitative evaluation here. Same for the layer thickness result.
L683: a change in isotope signal could also mean a change in source or transport, please don’t only refer this to temperature. The change in accumulation rate underpins that there must be more complicated things going on than just a drop in temperature. Please discuss a little more.
L685-689: Can you assume that changes in the NAO will affect all core location in the same way? Is there a difference between the more southern and the more northern ice cores? Once again it would be great not to only look at the stack results but at the single cores separately. I think that would help to interpret the isotope and layer thinning results.
L692-693. Please clarify that sentence. What do you mean exactly by wet/dry depositional effect on the measurement?
Fig. 10: Looks like there are two dips in the stacked ECM data at ~-8 and ~-16 years. Are these significant?
L707: please clarify why a thinning should be a result of cooling. See comment above.
L716: Reference for Vesuvius magnitude?
L725: does ECM refer to the stacked signal here? Please clarify.
Fig. S6: I think there are some minima in the 1700-1900 b2k window relating to the ECM peaks, just with a little delay. Is there a reason why they should be directly on top of each other? These are two completely different processes.
L731-732: Did you just investigate the ECM stack or also look at other indicators for volcanic eruptions (e.g. sulfate data where available, pH and other potential parameters).
L737: also sulfur isotopes could be an option.
L737-741: I think this paragraph is not necessary and could be deleted. The exact date of the Vesuvius eruption is known, so why refer to the less precise radiocarbon dating?
Fig. 11: what about marker nr. 4? Is that way too far out of uncertainty to be considered? Or is that the one that was thought to be Vesuvius in GICC05? Please make a short comment.
L775-785: Seems like a promising candidate for the Thera eruption to me. I would also fall into the wiggle matched age range by Van der Plicht. And also keep in mind the IntCal 20 uncertainty and the GICC21 to IntCal 20 uncertainty. It is briefly addressed in the caption of Fig. 12 but not in the main text. I would not discard it for the lack of layer thinning, without further investigations about the reasons for this thinning in other case (see comments above). Why do you not investigate matchpoint 3 any further? It would also fit into the proposed age range. This section needs a deeper discussion.
Fig. 12: I wonder why nr 1 was picked as a matchpoint and the peak at 3610b2 was not? Seems a little inconsistent to me. Please comment on your choice.
L787: I would not rule it out completely.
L790 I would highly recommend to also investigate the sections around 3610 b2k, not only for tephra, but also for example for sulfate and sulfur isotopes in more cores.
L830ff: That sounds good, I would like to see it!
L843-844: 3300b2k is younger than Thera. I would be careful to still call the offset negligible in that time frame. Please comment.
Technical corrections:
L45: rather “contains” than “is enriched” considering the overall amounts.
L69: Please reformulate. The counting is not done “on the isotopes” but on the signal or the record
L133: Add “ice cores” after Greenland
L357: There are no top and bottom axis, only left and right. Please clarify
L363: change “must be” to “expected to be” or “should be”
L417: change “site” to “vicinity”
Fig. 7: Hard to see the records, maybe broaden the x-axis to improve readability
Fig. 8: Use a different color for Na hat I more distinct from the isotopes
L585: “reason for” not “reason of”
L677: Figure S5, not S4
Fig. 10: The direction of time in plots a, b1 and c1 is counter intuitive. Could you change negative and positive signs of age?
L711: Figure S5, not S4
L713: “of” not “on”
L727: Figure S6, not S5
L728: “reconstruction” not “reconstructions” and “reaches”, “not reach”
L746: L727: Figure S6, not S5
L732-734: “as an additional… “ that sentence does not make any sense in this context.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-155-RC1 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Giulia Sinnl, 31 Jan 2022
Dear Anonymous Referee #1,
Thank you for a detailed review of our manuscript. Your comments have been very helpful and we hope to have improved our manuscript by addressing your concerns.
The construction of the GICC21 timescale has been a long work and we are glad to see our efforts recognized. We are satisfied to see that all Referees agreed on our uncertainty estimation to be valid.
We agree that the manuscript ended up being quite long, however GICC21 needs thorough explanation and documentation. In response to your comment and to those by An.Ref.#2 and An.Ref.#3, we have concluded that the manuscript will gain more readability by shortening some parts, in order to refocus the manuscript around the GICC21 timescale, i.e. we intend to cut out the discussion of volcanic cooling and Mediterranean volcanic events (sections 5.2 and 5.3, Appendix A and B, and the relevant parts of abstract and conclusion). We will continue the investigation on these topics in our future work. We thank you for the comments about these sections, which we will consider when working onward on these topics.
All ‘technical corrections’ have been included into the revised manuscript.
Our replies to your specific comments:
>>L18: Radiocarbon dated evidence. please clarify. What kind of evidence? Evidence for what?
Reply: The evidence from eruption sites such as the Olive branch from Thera. This sentence as well as most of the last paragraph of the abstract will be removed as a consequence of removing sec 5.2 and 5.3.
>>L24: Late Holocene – please give time frame
Reply: From 4.2 ka b2k to today (Walker et al., 2012).
>>L33: a short description of the general differences in dating methods, stratigraphic and relative vs. absolute age markers and their pros and cons in terms of error would be helpful.
Reply: We agree. We have added a few sentences on the matter in the revised manuscript (MS).
>>L47: That is quite a bold statement. We know that isotopes can be used as temperature proxies but only to a very limited extend and under certain circumstances, also keeping in mind all the post-depositional effects. Please weaken this statement and also cite some more recent studies, for example: Laepple, T. et al. On the similarity and apparent cycles of isotopic variations in East Antarctic snow pits, The Cryosphere, 12, 169–187, 2018.
Reply: We will weaken our statement and include the proposed citation.
>>L52: Reference for high and stable snow deposition?
Reply: The stability of Greenland Holocene climate is demonstrated by the quite constant isotope values (with the exception of the cooling events older than 4.2 ka b2k) (Vinther et al., 2009). The description of “high” accumulation is subjective and we will rephrase it to be about the relative change of layer thickness compared to glacial values (Cuffey & Clow, 1997; Rasmussen et al., 2006).
>>L108: why do nitrate peaks coincide with ammonium peaks? Please explain, give reference.
Reply: We apologize that this sentence was not substantiated with proof and references. This observation was made during the dating work, although it did not provide an additional base for the matching. We will add a figure in the Supplement to illustrate the coincidence of the peaks in the two species. Nitrate is described in Legrand et al. (2016) as a potential proxy for bio-mass burning and the frequent co-occurrence of nitrate and ammonium is documented in this publication, hence we will cite their study in this context. However, the use of NO-3 as a proxy for bio-mass burning is questioned in that same study because of the influence of other sources, so we refrained from using NO-3 peaks as tie-points. We remark, however, that in the absence of NH+4 in one ice core because of a data gap, one could use NO-3 tentatively, if the other cores showed co-registration of NO-3 and NH+4 peaks.
(In Supplement: Figure 1 Example of the co-occurrence of NH+4 and NO3 peaks in the NEEM ice cores.)
>>L110ff: please add the tritium peak as a radiometric marker
Reply: We will add it.
>>L157: what bias do you refer to? Overcounting, undercounting or something else? Please clarify.
Reply: As you say, a dating bias can be caused by several aspects of the dating process. However, it is hardly ever caused by the counting in itself but rather by mistakes in the layer-identification rules. As stated in Vinther06 and in Rasmussen at al., 2006, the MCE accounts for uncertainties because of layers that were hard to interpret, but it does not account for the bias related to the layer-identification criteria used by each observer. Hence, no account of this type of bias is used to quantify the MCE. In our error estimation, on the other hand, we are somewhat trying to estimate the bias the MCE did not account for, by looking at the systematic undercounts/overcounts produced by StratiCounter. We will expand on this in the revised MS.
>>L175: Please define WDC
Reply: Will be added in the revised MS: West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide Ice Core (WDC).
>>Table 1: Accumulation given in m total or m.w.e.?
Reply: The accumulation is given in m ice equivalent.
>>L252ff: can you please give depth resolutions for the NEEM and NEEM-2011-S1 data?
Reply: The resolution of NEEM is 1 mm, and that of NEEM-2011-S1 is 1 cm.
>>L265ff: Depth resolution for GRIP data?
Reply: For the isotopes it’s 2 cm , for ECM 1 cm
>>L275ff: Depth resolution for DYE-3 data?
Reply: For the isotopes it’s 1 cm , for ECM 1 cm
>>L283-290: Nice overview of the data processing steps
Reply: Thank you.
>>L306f: Please clarify that sentence. What do you mean exactly by pre-processing? What was the control data?
Reply: We will explain this better in the revised MS: StratiCounter has an inbuilt pre-processing option that allows the user to select the pre-processing that SC should apply to the data in order to count the layers at the best of its possibilities (e.g. log-transformation of Na and Ca data). By control data we mean the ice-core data between the Laki and Samalas eruptions. The way we selected the appropriate pre-processing steps was by studying which one produced the layer count closest to the true number of years between the two eruptions.
>>L337-340: I don’t really understand the knowledge gain by inverting and log transforming the ECM into pseudo NH4+. In my opinion this does not give any additional information and rather creates apparent alignments which are completely artificial. Either clarify the benefits of the pseudo-ammonium or take it out (also in Fig. 2), because I think it could be misleading.
Reply: We observed in our work that log-transformed and inverted ECM aligns well with NH+4 peaks, which is a consequence of NH+4 neutralizing the acidity of the ice core. The alignments were seen within the same ice core, i.e. between the log-inverted-ECM and NH+4 of EastGRIP, NEEM, and NorthGRIP. The use of log-inverted-ECM is hence extended to those cores for which NH+4 wasn’t measured.
In the revised MS we will rectify that not all ECM dips are caused by NH+4 peaks, since there are other positive ions in ice cores. To explain better, we intend to add an illustrative figure in the supplement, and we will perform a statistical test of correlation.
(In Supplement: Figure 2 Alignment of log-inverted ECM (pseudo-NH+4) peaks and true NH+4 peaks in the NEEM ice core.)
>>L341: Clarify reference datum
Reply: We will explain this more in the revised MS as follows. Dating the ice cores down from the surface is often not practical or not feasible because the very top layers are made of loose firn and have very variable width. Moreover, most deep-ice-core data start after some depth, e.g. the main EastGRIP core was only drilled from 14 m down. Therefore, we chose a reference datum that is both well established and not too far from the surface, but deep enough for the data quality to be sufficient. The Laki eruption of 1783 CE is well documented in all ice cores and was used as reference datum, by which we mean the absolute date to which the rest of the timescale is anchored to.
>>L345-355: Using both timescales (b2k and CE) can be confusing for the reader. I would recommend to use b2k throughout the MS and only additionally refer to CE for some of the historical events where the CE age is well known.
Reply: We agree and we will make the changes.
>>Fig.2: would be good to either use more distinct colors for pseudo NH4+ and NH4+ or take out the pseudo signal completely (see comment above). Please add NH4+ on the y-axis, not just ppb. Why was the big ammonium peak between 214 and 216 m in North GRIP not used for matching? Seems like an unusual gap and as if you could find matching features at least in GRIP and DYE. Contrarily some match points are not very convincing, e.g. nr. 5 in EastGRIP and GRIP.
Reply: Because the peak doesn’t appear in all cores, not even in years close by. Hence, we did not use it as a tie-point. A gap of 20 years between tie-points such as the one between n. 10 and 11 is not unusual in the timescale. The patterns formed by nr 8,9,10 and 11,12,13 provided a match in which we are more confident. We will remove some tie points such as nr.5 for the sake of clarity of our message: it is patterns of ammonium peaks that are matched, not just single isolated peaks.
>>Table 2: I’m not sure if it is helpful to calculate the total score, because for example for Laki the total score is two, but four out of six cores undercounted it. Seems to be misleading and not necessary for the fine tuning procedure in my opinion.
Reply: We agree and we will be removing the total column.
>>L424: I can’t find the 17% improvement in Table 3
Reply: 0.27/ 0.23 = 1.17. We will make an addition to the table to highlight this percentage.
>>L420-425 and Table 3: I would recommend to shorted or take out the comparison between DYE-3 and the SWG Greenland temperatures as well as the correlation study between GRIP and DYE-3 isotopes. I would not call the improvement of correlation “substantially”, even if it is 17% and for the SWG temperatures the authors themselves state that there is no significant change. As it is not relevant for the further discussion I would remove this paragraph.
Reply: We disagree with removing this section as we think it provides additional information to the reader about the timescale. By keeping a high correlation to the SWG temperatures while increasing the correlation between GRIP and DYE-3, we demonstrated that the timescale has improved, since a correlation measurement of a long time-series is unlikely to improve by chance. The SWG temperatures (recorded from 1784 CE) should correlate with the isotope signal, according to the finding by Vinther et al. (2010). Since we are exceeding the uncertainty of GICC05 (MCE~1 year), we have to verify if the correlation with SWG is still valid. Moreover, the correlation between DYE-3 and GRIP could have changed in GICC21, so that this is an independent and objective test of the quality of the timescale.
>>L455: What exactly do you mean by historical evidence? Is that referring to volcanic eruptions?
Reply: Yes, we are referring to historically dated volcanic eruptions.
>>L461: what kind of local effects do you refer to? Please clarify.
Reply: We will explain this more clearly in the revised MS. By local effects we mean the effects that influence the layer identification in one core within neighboring tie points: accumulation fluctuations, uncertain layers across all ice cores, local tie-point uncertainty (e.g. a volcanic marker placed differently across cores), measurement gaps.
>>L467-486: That section needs some clarification in my point of view. First, I think it should be emphasized that for the youngest part the uncertainty is ~2 years, that important statement is somehow lost in the text in line 471. Then follows the calculation of the SC uncertainty compared to the fine-tuned record using convolution of the individual probability distributions of the cores. Looking at Fig. S3 it seems as if there are systematic offsets towards over- or undercounting for certain cores and the differences can be quite significant (e.g. panel d or k in Fig. S3). I am therefore wondering if the convolution that weights each core equally is the best method to assess this uncertainty or if there should be a more individual assessment for each core similar to section 3.3
Reply: We agree with your evaluation of the uncertainty section being very technical and insufficiently explained. Emphasizing the 2-years lower boundary is important and we will do it.
If we didn’t fine-tune the timescale at all, then a convolution of the ice-cores’ StratiCounter probability distributions would have been the natural choice of timescale uncertainty. However, systematic offsets of the SC-count were observed and quantified in Table 2: under-count in the “CFA-cores” and overcount in the “isotope cores”. That is why we do the fine-tuning in the first place. The SC bias is quantified by how much the probability convolution is off with respect to the fine-tuned result: we quantify this as a systematic error of σSC = 0.95 years per century, on average. We could have done a separate treatment of the ice-cores, but the average result would still be close or equal to 0.95.
>>L493: This number is the key finding of the section if I understand it correctly and should be emphasized.
Reply: Yes, we stand by this value. We will give more weight to it in the revised text.
>>L495-508, Fig. 4 and Table 5: I think this section could be shortened and needs some clarification. It is currently a little confusing. I don’t think the fine tuning of the obtained prob-SC and the bias correction are necessary, or maybe the conclusion of that correction should be clarified. Also I think Fig. 4 and Table 5 could be moved to the supplement if not discarded. The consequences of the outcome of 0.24 years of uncertainty after bias correction of the SC counting is left uncommented to some extent. It is also somehow unrelated to the final statement in L505ff where the uncertainty of the fine tuning process is very vaguely defined as “smaller than the bias correction itself” and an overall uncertainty of 1 year every 100 layers is deduced. Please clarify and shorten that paragraph with respect to these issues.
Reply: We will try to explain this better in the revised MS. In general, we believe there are two main sources to our local error: a StratiCounter error and a random error given by the statistical fluctuations of the ice core data. These should be uncorrelated sources of error and we assume they can be added in quadrature (σ2tot=σ2SC+σ2rand). We empirically deduce σSC from the SC bias evaluation and we find 0.95 years/century. Having performed the fine-tuning, the ice cores’ distributions of the likely layer count become centered around the fine-tuned value; we then presume that they can be multiplied together to derive σrand , which we find to be 0.24 years/century. The fine-tuning we perform resolves issues that could not be solved in a single-core analysis. Therefore, we ask ourselves how much uncertainty there is in our own fine-tuning, which, by account of the high volume of ice-core data compared and the numerous iterations of fine-tuning applied, we speculate is negligible compared to the σSC. What we mean by this is that if we repeated the whole process of fine-tuning again in a year from now, having forgotten our interpretation of the data, we would very likely reach the same timescale because we would again aim to make the number of annual layers agree in the different data sets. So, we argue that there is low uncertainty in the fine-tuning (which in itself tells us little about the accuracy of the timescale, as there is still a risk that GICC21 is wrong). In conclusion, σtot = 0.96 years per century, which we round to 1 year.
In conclusion, the entire section L467-508 (i.e. sec 3.5) will be rephrased to make our reasoning clearer to the reader. Following comments by An.Ref. #2, we will also perform a more continuous evaluation of the uncertainty (instead of using only 4 test sections). As a consequence, the exact values presented until now might change slightly.
>>Fig.5: What caused the outlier at about 3500 years?
We will consider this datapoint during the re-writing of this section. However, we are not sure we can classify this datapoint as an outlier, since it lies less than 3σ away from the average.
>>L535 and equation 1: Please explain a little more how equation 1 was constructed. I assume the 2 denotes the error for ages younger than Samalas? Does absolute uncertainty mean the result of eq. 1 is the +/- range of the referred age?
Reply: We will expand on this in the revised MS. When considering the time-dependent uncertainty of the timescale, we linearly add the time-dependent part to the (conservative) 2-year contribution given by the delay of volcanic signals and possible mistakes in tie-point placing. The time-dependent contribution is derived from the 1-year per century estimation we have stated previously. Since we’ve argued that the century-errors are uncorrelated, we apply a quadrature sum: . For convenience, we then hypothesize that the formula can be made continuous, i.e. .
>>L556f and Fig.: 6: What causes the common uncertainty excursion in DYE-3 and EastGRIP around 600 b2k? Is that just coincidence? Could be addressed a little more in the main text and not just in the caption of Fig. 7
Reply: The main excursion is at 400 b2k, and we assume the comment is about this excursion. We think it’s a coincidence: EastGRIP has a tie-point on a broad-shaped eruption that was mismatched previously (Mojtabavi et al., 2020), and since layers of EastGRIP are relatively thin, already 4 layers had been misplaced. For DYE-3 we observe a layer thickness fluctuation that was already seen in Vinther06. The revision of the tie-points in this region caused the excursion of the timescale offset at 400 b2k.
>>L607-641 and Fig. 9a: It would be interesting in this discussion to see a direct comparison between GICC21 and IntCal20. The advantages of GICC21 over GICC05 have been discussed in the section before. Why not show something like GICC21-IntCal20 in Fig. 9a? that would help to understand the interpretation of Fig. 9b
Reply: Repeating the study by Adolphi et al. (2016) was considered beyond the scope of this work . To do that we would have to repeat the wiggle-matching of GRIP 10Be data, dated on GICC21, to the IntCal20 14C production rate. In alternative, we produced Fig 9b, where we show that the datasets for the wiggle-matching are promising in reducing the offset. The results are very likely to be similar to what we already know, i.e. that the wiggle-matched and our independent timescale compare well within uncertainties. The offsets visible in fig. 9b would probably be less than what Adolphi predicted, thanks to a better alignment between the purple and the green curve.
>>L641: Why do you still refer the uncertainty to IntCal 13 here and not IntCal 20? Please clarify.
Reply: Because it’s essentially the same, but we will rectify this in the revised MS. The datasets underlying IntCal20 in this timeframe have not produced substantial changes in the Late Holocene (Muscheler et al., 2020).
>>L651: That is quite a bold statement. I would recommend to weaken it. As was stated, there are some differences in the production signals and the wiggle matching is not always entirely convincing (e.g. at about 3650 b2k). I think the underlying processes and uncertainties of IntCal 20 as well as the 10Be record are rather complicated, so I would be careful with the conclusion you draw.
Reply: We agree and we will weaken our statement.
(Comments about sections 5.2 and 5.3 have not been answered but will be considered for future work)
>>L843-844: 3300b2k is younger than Thera. I would be careful to still call the offset negligible in that time frame. Please comment.
Reply: This sentence will be removed.
Kind regards,
Sinnl et al.
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AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Giulia Sinnl, 31 Jan 2022
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RC2: 'Review of Sinnl et al.: GICC21', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Jan 2022
Review of Sinnl et al. A multi-ice-core annual timescale…GICC21
Sinnl et al present a timescale revision to the first 3800 years of the GICC – creating a new start to the timescale termed GICC21. The work presented is painstaking and involves revisions of only a handful of years per millennium. Having a timescale accurate to 2 years, rather than 5, allows much stronger conclusions and the effort is worthwhile. The manuscript is well written and organized. It is also long, but I found everything relevant. The analysis of the water isotope and accumulation signals after volcanic events and the discussion of Mediterranean volcanic events are not necessary but are worthwhile.
I am particularly happy to see the Maximum Counting Error (MCE) no longer form the basis for the uncertainty. The new method of calculating and describing the uncertainty, which utilizes the objective uncertainties of straticounter while acknowledging the inherent difficulty in assigning rigorous quantitative uncertainty, is itself a major step forward.
I have three primary questions/concerns. The first is about the improved match to IntCal. It seems like the reason for developing a new chronology was the disagreement with IntCal identified by previous work (e.g. Adolphi and Mueschler, 2016). I worry that statements like GICC21 is “found to be in alignment with IntCal20” make it seem like GICC21 is an independent check of IntCal. Instead, I think GICC21 is more accurately described as an updated chronology seeking improved agreement with IntCal that respects the annual layer interpretation and uncertainty. Improving the agreement of GICC with IntCal is a reasonable and useful thing to do – and the presented methodology an effective way to do it.
The second question/concern is the underlying data. Specifically, where is the EastGRIP and NEEM data? Substantial improvements in multi-parameter CFA have occurred and both of these cores should be providing fantastic multiparameter CFA data, but only Figure 7 shows any CFA data, and it’s only Na and a snapshot from a relatively unimportant section of the timescale which has not been significantly revised. I see in the data availability section that there is a vague plan for publishing the data – which lists 3 papers, two of which are only in preparation. It is important that other researchers can assess the data that underlie the timescales, and therefore can make their own arguments about the validity. This is something GICC05 has lacked. GICC21 should not be published until the data used is available. While publishing the EastGRIP data could be complicated since the core is not yet completed, all of the other cores are quite mature. If the data are not already published, then they should be normalized (to prevent scooping with quantitative values since only the cycles are important for annual layer identification) and given their own DOI.
The third question/concern is about the ammonium (or -ECM log transform) matches. These seem to be used extensively, but are not well justified. Looking closely at Figure 2, many of the ammonium matches are little more than mini blips in most of the cores, with many substantially more prominent peaks being skipped. Further, two pairs of the 6 cores are from the same locations, so that the figure makes it look like there is better agreement than if only the geographicly separate cores were shown. I also don’t understand the major vs. minor distinction and how it is applied in the alignment of cores. More support for why the ammonium matches add value isneeded. Is ammonium deposited consistently enough across a large enough portion of the ice sheet to be a chronological marker? and are the measurements are sufficient to resolve ammonium? ECM is susceptible to apparent low conductivity due to weak electrode contact such that it’s possible the ammonium peaks may be misidentified.
Specific comments:
L69 – add sulfate, black carbon, as well as electrical conductivity measurements, and insoluble particles (i.e. dust). This seems too focused on water isotopes.
L69 – change “heavy” to something that does not imply weight, like “significant”
Section 1.3 – The first paragraph focuses on sulfate for volcanic event identification, then the second paragraph switches to acidity. I think you are likely referring to ECM rather than a direct measure of acidity. Please add more discussion around how the sulfate (and sulfur), ECM, and acidity measurements are interrelated and used together.
L98 – I understand what you are going for with a volcanic event being recorded differently as various sites, but GRIP and DYE-3 are both about the same distance from an Alaska volcano. Seems like Iceland might be a better example.
L105 – There is no reference for the matching of ammonium records among cores. As indicated above, this portion of the timescale development needs to be better supported. I’m not aware of this being widely used before. If it has been, please add a paragraph with references here. If it has not, please dedicate a section of the paper to the ammonium matches.
L107 – add a reference to Taylor et al., 1996: Biomass burning recorded in the GISP2 ice core: a record from eastern Canada?, The Holocene unless there is an even earlier reference for the ECM/ammonium/biomass burning relationship
L130 – This paragraph provides a nice description.
L157 – “bias in the counting process” should be changed to “bias in the interpretation process”. The counting has never been the issue – the identification of annual layers is the issue. If you can identify each year, the counting is easy ð
L182 – “includes all available data from Greenland deep ice cores” is not true – GISP2 is excluded. An explanation for why GISP2 is excluded, despite having publicly available data that allows annual layer identification, should be added. There should also be a transfer function for GISP2 to GICC21.
L335 – “major and minor” – I don’t see any distinction in the ammonium matches in the remainder of the manuscript. I also think this is a suspect approach. Since there are lots of wiggles in the ammonium and ECM records, it seems like a lot of “matches” could just be of noise. Figures 2 and 3 do not convince me that the ammonium matches are anything more than non-unique wiggles that happen to fall at about the right age. As mentioned above, more analysis needs to be provided to support these matches.
L480 – I don’t understand why the uncertainty estimates are based on just 4 sections. The straticounter probabilities are available for all sections, as is the manually fine-tuned timescale. This process should be done for all of the timescale.
L485 – convolved not convoluted
L543 – Figure 6 – This figure is the most important in the paper. But it is hard to interpret, particularly the uncertainties. If the primary point of the paper is that a multi-core analysis yields a better timescale, then why plot each of the individual timescales, some of which don’t really exist – i.e. is there really an independent EastGRIP timescale? I think you should make this into a two panel plot. The top panel should have a comparison of only published timescales – GICC05, NS1-2011 (this is the Sigl15 timescale, right?) GICC21, and GISP2 (an oldie but a goodie). This should allow the uncertainties to be better visible, but importantly, the GICC05 uncertainty should be plotted clearly. It is an important point that the GICC21 timescale is a revision that is outside the GICC05 timescale.
Then in a lower plot, you can make a plot that uses the individual timescales as you’ve done.
L615 – Of course GICC21 is in better alignment with IntCal; the disagreement, as pointed about by previous work, is why you went to all the effort to update GICC05 in the first place! I think you can rephrase this section to be clear you have developed an annual timescale that reconciles the previous offset within uncertainty. This is an important thing to do!
L642 – I don’t understand this paragraph. I think the main point of Figure 9b is that the purple (Be10 on GICC21) and the black (Be10 on Adolphi-Mueschler16) are very similar. But the main visual is the difference between the green (IntCal production) and the purple/black. The wording in the paragraph is hard to follow. Is the green important? Or could you just plot the purple and black?
L655 – How is the averaging done? Do you perform an initial average for the geographically similar cores, and average those together? I don’t see this in Appendix B either.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-155-RC2 -
AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Giulia Sinnl, 31 Jan 2022
Dear Anonymous Referee #2,
Thank you for your positive and comprehensive review of our manuscript. We hope to have improved our manuscript by addressing your concerns.
As we replied to An.Ref.#1, the construction of the GICC21 timescale has been a long work and we are glad to see our efforts recognized. The new uncertainty formula is the result of long discussions in our group and we are satisfied to see that all Referees agreed on its validity.
We agree that the manuscript ended up being quite long, however GICC21 needs thorough explaining and documentation. In response to your comment and to those by An.Ref.#1 and An.Ref.#3 we have concluded that the manuscript will gain more readability by shortening some parts, in order to refocus the manuscript around the GICC21 timescale, i.e. we intend to cut out the discussion of volcanic cooling and Mediterranean volcanic events (sections 5.2 and 5.3, Appendix A and B, and the relevant parts of abstract and conclusion). However, we feel encouraged to continue our future work on these topics thanks to your positive evaluation of the sections we now intend to remove.
Regarding your primary questions/concerns:
- ‘The first is about the improved match to IntCal.’ It was not our intention to send the message that GICC21 was born as an independent check of IntCal, or to be forced in alignment with IntCal, and we apologize if our phrasing implied otherwise. This section is meant to be a discussion of what GICC21 can be used for in a broader sense, hence we think it is important to keep it and to rephrase it better. In the revised manuscript we have made sure to clarify that GICC21 is an independent result that applies for Greenland only. The comparison to IntCal is intended as to solidify the link between the Greenlandic climate and the broader Northern Hemisphere region.
- ‘The second question/concern is the underlying data.’ We understand your concern and we will make sure that in the revised manuscript we explain more clearly where data can be found. We emphasize that all data will be available to the reader on Pangaea, but as Pangaea currently has a rather long processing time, not all data sets may get a doi in time for inclusion in this manuscript. For NEEM and NorthGRIP CFA data, the Pangaea repository listed (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.935838) already contains data of all the species we have used in our work (ECM, Na, Ca, NH+4, NO3), and the moratorium will be lifted as soon as the corresponding ESSD paper is published.
As for EastGRIP data, the ECM has since been made available at https://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/data/. For the EastGRIP CFA, Erhardt will make a Pangaea repository, but preliminary data can be obtained by Erhardt.
The two other ice-cores (DYE-3 and GRIP), for which we only used ECM and isotopes, already have published ECM and decadal-resolution isotopes, and we will make sure to refer to those publications in the revised manuscript. As for the full-resolution isotopes from GRIP and DYE-3, they will be published separately by Rasmussen in a paper that makes data from GICC05 and GICC21 available. The files have already been submitted to Pangaea.
Authors who want to access data sets which are not published when this manuscript is published, will be able to get the datafiles from the author team (with preliminary metadata, as the metadata is subject to review by Pangea editors).
- ‘The third question/concern is about the ammonium (or -ECM log transform) matches.’
In the revised manuscript we have added more explanation about the NH+4 matches and the log-inverted ECM (pseudo-NH+4). We believe that matching of NH+4 is useful for our construction method. We do not use NH+4-matching (including matching NH+4 peaks to ECM dips) for matching up the cores in the first place, but we use it as a way of matching ice-core data across sections that don’t have any clear volcanic signals. NH+4 has showed high potential for ice-core matching from the beginning of our work, as opposed to Na and Ca, who show very low agreement across ice cores since they are more strongly influenced by local climate. That said, by no means we believe NH+4 to be better than volcanic matching and the use of ammonium spikes as a matching tool is secondary and dependent on the coherence of the volcanic match. Moreover, we have made use of patterns of ammonium matches, rather than of single peaks, in order to tie the ice cores together. This is because we believe that by matching NH4 patterns we can obtain better results than just by interpolation between eruptions. As for the pseudo-NH+4, we will reconsider the nomenclature in order not to imply a closer correlation with NH+4 than there actually is. The agreement with ammonium can be seen visually and can possibly be quantified by a statistical test of correlation, which we aim at providing in the Supplementary Information of the revised manuscript.
Our reply to your specific comments:
>>L69 – add sulfate, black carbon, as well as electrical conductivity measurements, and insoluble particles (i.e. dust). This seems too focused on water isotopes.
Reply: Thank you for the remark, we will do that.
>>L69 – change “heavy” to something that does not imply weight, like “significant”
Reply: We will.
>>Section 1.3 – The first paragraph focuses on sulfate for volcanic event identification, then the second paragraph switches to acidity. I think you are likely referring to ECM rather than a direct measure of acidity. Please add more discussion around how the sulfate (and sulfur), ECM, and acidity measurements are interrelated and used together.
Reply: We will make sure to add more information on the matter.
>>L98 – I understand what you are going for with a volcanic event being recorded differently as various sites, but GRIP and DYE-3 are both about the same distance from an Alaska volcano. Seems like Iceland might be a better example.
Reply: Clausen et al. (1997) explicitly talk about the Katmai eruption (Alaska) of 1912 CE being recorded in GRIP but not in DYE-3, which we also observed. That is why we cited Alaska as an example. We will rephrase the sentence to remove the argument of distance from the source, limiting ourselves to the meteorological factors that can alter the shape of the eruption signals across the ice sheet.
>>L105 – There is no reference for the matching of ammonium records among cores. As indicated above, this portion of the timescale development needs to be better supported. I’m not aware of this being widely used before. If it has been, please add a paragraph with references here. If it has not, please dedicate a section of the paper to the ammonium matches.
Reply: Ammonium events are excellently described by Legrand et al. (2016) as peaks that significantly exceed the background levels, and the importance of NH+4 for reconstructing past forest fire activity is well documented in their review. We were not the first to use NH+4 for ice core matching, since Legrand et al. also provide a match of NH+4 across NEEM and Summit for the recent 2 centuries, admitting that “peak to peak comparison is rarely perfect”. However, they note that similar events happen within 1-2 years, which is explained as being caused by timescale inaccuracies. Furthermore, they provide clear indication that the ice-core peaks occurred within dating uncertainties of record-years of Canadian forest burning.
In conclusion, we agree with your criticism of our explanation being insufficient and we will add more details about why NH+4-matching is a reliable addition to the volcanic matching and that is has to be considered a secondary tool.
>>L107 – add a reference to Taylor et al., 1996: Biomass burning recorded in the GISP2 ice core: a record from eastern Canada?, The Holocene unless there is an even earlier reference for the ECM/ammonium/biomass burning relationship
Reply: Thank you, we will add this reference.
>>L130 – This paragraph provides a nice description.
Reply: Thank you.
>>L157 – “bias in the counting process” should be changed to “bias in the interpretation process”. The counting has never been the issue – the identification of annual layers is the issue. If you can identify each year, the counting is easy
Reply: We agree on this distinction. We will make the change.
>>L182 – “includes all available data from Greenland deep ice cores” is not true – GISP2 is excluded. An explanation for why GISP2 is excluded, despite having publicly available data that allows annual layer identification, should be added. There should also be a transfer function for GISP2 to GICC21.
Reply: We will weaken our statement, also in view of the comments by Michael Sigl. The GISP2 ice core was not included in the timescale, that is true, and we will rectify this. However, including GISP2 in the timescale at this stage is not feasible because of the lengthy fine-tuning process. When planning the timescale construction, we noted that GISP2 ECM data is degrading in quality (many data gaps after 300 m) and that many ECM peaks cannot be matched easily, hence we desisted from including it in our dataset. Since GISP2 is anyway very close to GRIP it would not have represented an important addition to the geographical coverage of GICC21. We will aim at matching GISP2 in the revised manuscript because we agree that this will complete our discussion of Greenlandic ice cores in the frame of a new chronology.
>>L335 – “major and minor” – I don’t see any distinction in the ammonium matches in the remainder of the manuscript. I also think this is a suspect approach. Since there are lots of wiggles in the ammonium and ECM records, it seems like a lot of “matches” could just be of noise. Figures 2 and 3 do not convince me that the ammonium matches are anything more than non-unique wiggles that happen to fall at about the right age. As mentioned above, more analysis needs to be provided to support these matches.
Reply: the distinction between major and minor tie-points was removed from the manuscript in an earlier version. We will edit it out completely and apologize for the confusion. We will aim at making Fig 2 and Fig 3 more credible and expand on NH+4.
>>L480 – I don’t understand why the uncertainty estimates are based on just 4 sections. The straticounter probabilities are available for all sections, as is the manually fine-tuned timescale. This process should be done for all of the timescale.
Reply: It was certainly possible to retrieve a continuous record of the uncertainty data, but we started by only analyzing the 4 test sections since we believed that 4 sections of 300 years (i.e. 1200 years in total) would be representative of the ~3000 years of the timescale before Samalas. Since your review, we have conducted a continuous analysis of the uncertainty and we will add it to the revised MS. As expected, it did not drastically alter the values we have proposed.
>>L485 – convolved not convoluted
Reply: Thank you, we will make this change.
>>L543 – Figure 6 – This figure is the most important in the paper. But it is hard to interpret, particularly the uncertainties. If the primary point of the paper is that a multi- core analysis yields a better timescale, then why plot each of the individual timescales, some of which don’t really exist – i.e. is there really an independent EastGRIP timescale? I think you should make this into a two panel plot. The top panel should have a comparison of only published timescales – GICC05, NS1-2011 (this is the Sigl15 timescale, right?) GICC21, and GISP2 (an oldie but a goodie). This should allow the uncertainties to be better visible, but importantly, the GICC05 uncertainty should be plotted clearly. It is an important point that the GICC21 timescale is a revision that is outside the GICC05 timescale.
Then in a lower plot, you can make a plot that uses the individual timescales as you’ve done.
Reply: We will certainly evaluate if Fig.6 can be improved by dividing it into two panels. We kept the cores separate because they each react differently to the timescale revision, since both tie-points and layers were changed from GICC05. We will highlight the MCE boundaries and the GISP2 timescale will be included.
>>L615 – Of course GICC21 is in better alignment with IntCal; the disagreement, as pointed about by previous work, is why you went to all the effort to update GICC05 in the first place! I think you can rephrase this section to be clear you have developed an annual timescale that reconciles the previous offset within uncertainty. This is an important thing to do!
Reply: Thank you, we will rephrase this section.
>>L642 – I don’t understand this paragraph. I think the main point of Figure 9b is that the purple (Be10 on GICC21) and the black (Be10 on Adolphi-Mueschler16) are very similar. But the main visual is the difference between the green (IntCal production) and the purple/black. The wording in the paragraph is hard to follow. Is the green important? Or could you just plot the purple and black?
Reply: We wanted to show that the wiggle-matching of GICC21 to IntCal (i.e. purple to green) is slightly better than the black-green one, especially in the last 300 years of our timescale. We will rephrase the section to explain this better.
>>L655 – How is the averaging done? Do you perform an initial average for the geographically similar cores, and average those together? I don’t see this in Appendix B either.
Reply: This part will be removed. The data was averaged without considering geographical location.
Kind regards,
Sinnl et al.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-155-AC3
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AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Giulia Sinnl, 31 Jan 2022
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RC3: 'Comment on cp-2021-155', Anonymous Referee #3, 12 Jan 2022
This is a fascinating and important account of the updating and synchronising the Greenland ice core time-scale over the most recent millennia. A few sections will have to be clarified. I agree with one of the other reviewers that it is important to give other researchers access to the underlying data. I also agree with the suggestion to stick to the b2k age-scale for nearly all ages mentioned in the text, instead of mixing them with BP and AD. Given the length and cover of the manuscript, a division into two papers (e.g., chapters 1-3 and chapters 4-5) is again an idea I would endorse.
Section 1.3 is important - however please describe more clearly that there is a hierarchy of uniqueness of these tie-points. If a tephra layer in the ice can be geochemically connected to a unique historical eruption (and/or to other dated sites), and if this layer is found and securely uniquely identified in the multiple ice cores, then this tephra layer forms a much more unique signal (and thus securly synchronous tiepoint) than if the volcanic eruptions are recorded as peaks in SO4, ECM or DEP; the latter peaks are replicated over the core and thus do NOT have unique IDs attached to them. When looked at in isolation, the latter peaks cannot be used as dates, but geochemically ID-ed tephra layers can. Are the shapes of peaks used in tying peaks, and if so, how?
In the same section, add some more references to tephra layers in ice cores, e.g. Abbott et al. 2021 CP doi:10.5194/cp-17-565-2021. It couldn't hurt to mention in this section already that tephra layer studies have thrown up surprises, in that some acid peaks were previously attributed to the wrong volcanic eruptions (e.g., Plunkett et al. 2021). For a wider context, please also cite Baillie 2008 (doi:10.1029/2008GL034755).
Lines 29/36, "synchronization/synchronized", please reword to "comparison/compared", as the current wording strongly implies adapting site chronologies by aligning/tuning their supposedly simultaneous peaks. Such tuning removes any independence between chronologies, and thus precludes the subsequent investigation of lead-lag dynamics (perhaps for wider context cite Blaauw 2012 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.11.012).
Such potential problems about the reliability of different peak identifications and alingments are make it more difficult me to properly evaluate the important Figure 2.
In Table 2, please outline which tephras have been positively and securely geochemically IDd in which core, and which matches instead rely on e.g. matching ECM peaks. For example, were Laki or Oraefajokull tephras geochemically identified in all of the used ice cores?
Has the the manual fine-tuning, including each decision been documented, quantified and motivated? Will the data be made available, including all high-res raw data and decisions? Could it be an idea to put the data on github, with version control and with information on decisions taken?
Details
44, processes which have occurred
48, drill sites
section 1.1, please reorder such that the current third paragraph goes between the current first and second one.
69, before diffusion becomes too large?
92, and thus for those tephra-free sections matching of the cores relies...
136-7, "attributed the massive Hekla 1104 CE eruption to a prominent ECM peak in GICC05", instead this should be: attributed a prominent ECM peak in GICC05 to the massive Hekla 1104 CE eruption
165, 15 volcanic
170, the results were not significant? Reword
174, The ages of volcanic eruptions are
202, 204, please also report the BCE ranges here as b2k
203, Bronk Ramsey et al. 2004
417, Owing to the close distance between the three ice cores, ...
646, but IntCal20 has more annual data during the Holocene than does IntCal13
853, droughts?Fig 1b, remove comma at end description GRIP. In the caption also explain what CFA means (as this is only explained after Fig. 1 is first mentioned).
Beside Fig. 6, could you also show a Figure of the accumulation rates for each core based on the adapted time-scales? Are all resulting accumulation rates and their variability considered to be realistic?
Fig. 12b, for consistency, reword in-figure citations to, e.g., 'van der Plicht et al., 2020'
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-155-RC3 -
AC4: 'Reply on RC3', Giulia Sinnl, 31 Jan 2022
Dear Anonymous Referee #3,
Thank you for your positive and detailed review of our manuscript. We hope to have addressed all your comments in the revised manuscript.
We agree that the manuscript ended up being quite long, however GICC21 needs thorough explaining and documentation. In response to your comment and to those by An.Ref.#1 and An.Ref.#2 we have concluded that the manuscript will gain more readability by shortening some parts, in order to refocus the manuscript around the GICC21 timescale, i.e. we intend to cut out the discussion of volcanic cooling and Mediterranean volcanic events (sections 5.2 and 5.3, Appendix A and B, and the relevant parts of abstract and conclusion). We will continue the investigation on these topics in our future work.
In response to your comments:
>>Section 1.3 is important - however please describe more clearly that there is a hierarchy of uniqueness of these tie-points. If a tephra layer in the ice can be geochemically connected to a unique historical eruption (and/or to other dated sites), and if this layer is found and securely uniquely identified in the multiple ice cores, then this tephra layer forms a much more unique signal (and thus securely synchronous tie point) than if the volcanic eruptions are recorded as peaks in SO4, ECM or DEP; the latter peaks are replicated over the core and thus do NOT have unique IDs attached to them. When looked at in isolation, the latter peaks cannot be used as dates, but geochemically ID-ed tephra layers can. Are the shapes of peaks used in tying peaks, and if so, how?
Reply: Thank you for the information, we will clarify this section. The shape of the peaks was certainly used as a matching criterion, we will add that to our description.
>>In the same section, add some more references to tephra layers in ice cores, e.g. Abbott et al. 2021 CP doi:10.5194/cp-17-565-2021. It couldn't hurt to mention in this section already that tephra layer studies have thrown up surprises, in that some acid peaks were previously attributed to the wrong volcanic eruptions (e.g., Plunkett et al. 2021). For a wider context, please also cite Baillie 2008 (doi:10.1029/2008GL034755).
Reply: Thank you for the information. We already acknowledge the erroneous assignment of peaks in GICC05 later in the MS, however we will add more details here and include more references such as the ones suggested.
>>Lines 29/36, "synchronization/synchronized", please reword to "comparison/compared", as the current wording strongly implies adapting site chronologies by aligning/tuning their supposedly simultaneous peaks. Such tuning removes any independence between chronologies, and thus precludes the subsequent investigation of lead-lag dynamics (perhaps for wider context cite Blaauw 2012 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.11.012).
Such potential problems about the reliability of different peak identifications and alignments are make it more difficult to properly evaluate the important Figure 2.
Reply: We agree with your rephrasing. Thank you for the suggested citation. Our intention throughout the work has always been to obtain an independent Greenland timescale that can later be used to compare Greenlandic climate to other regions.
>> In Table 2, please outline which tephras have been positively and securely geochemically IDd in which core, and which matches instead rely on e.g. matching ECM peaks. For example, were Laki or Oraefajokull tephras geochemically identified in all of the used ice cores?
Reply: We will review the tephra availability for the cited eruptions. For this work we did not present new tephra data, so our identification of ECM peaks relies on published work. To our knowledge, tephra from Öræfajökull for example was reported only in GRIP (Coulter et al., 2012), not in NorthGRIP or other ice cores.
>>Has the manual fine-tuning, including each decision been documented, quantified and motivated? Will the data be made available, including all high-res raw data and decisions? Could it be an idea to put the data on github, with version control and with information on decisions taken?
Reply: Yes, we did keep track of the fine-tuning details, such as the motivation for each intervention on the layer count. We will evaluate if a GitHub repository would be the best option for storing the manual fine-tuning iterations. As we have replied to An.Ref#2, the ice-core data is for the most part already available, but some records (e.g. EastGRIP CFA) have pending publication processes, for which we refer readers to directly contact the reference authors listed in the Data section. We are evaluating if the normalized and preprocessed data we have used as an input to StratiCounter could be published with a separate DOI in the meantime.
In reply to your more technical comments, we have accepted all of them in our revised manuscript. Comments are only relevant for one of these:
>>Beside Fig. 6, could you also show a Figure of the accumulation rates for each core based on the adapted time-scales? Are all resulting accumulation rates and their variability considered to be realistic?
Reply: We have a figure in the supplement about layer thicknesses that provides a first indication of the accumulation rate history of the ice cores. Accumulation rates require thinning models, which are not in the scope of this work. We will refer readers to the most recent publications about thinning models, in the cores where they are available.
Kind regards,
Sinnl et al.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-155-AC4
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AC4: 'Reply on RC3', Giulia Sinnl, 31 Jan 2022
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CC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-155', Michael Sigl, 13 Jan 2022
Attached is a comprehensive review of the manuscript combined into a single pdf for your consideration.
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AC5: 'Reply on CC1', Giulia Sinnl, 31 Jan 2022
Dear Prof. Michael Sigl,
Thank you very much for a helpful and detailed comment to our manuscript. We are very pleased to see our work recognized by you and by the Anonymous Referees. Your Nature paper of 2015 has been of great inspiration throughout our work and we are thankful for the comments about the sections of our manuscript that report on your results. We are sorry for any misinterpretations and will make modifications where you have found inaccuracies. We wanted to keep the GICC21 timescale as unbiased as possible, and having the NS1-2011 timescale as an independent reference has been a key element in our work.
We hope that our revised manuscript and the following comments address your concerns satisfactorily.
>>The authors provide a revision of the previous GICC05 age-scale for Greenland ice cores for the past 3,800 years. They combine automated layer recognition approaches with synchronization techniques to develop a dating framework which is both consistent between ice cores and annually dated. This tedious work is of great importance not only for ice-core science but also welcomed in paleoclimatology. Overall, I think the GICC21 timescale is a great improvement of the GICC05 and the previous long standing dating bias has been corrected for this time period. The stacked records of ECM, layer thickness and d18O are very useful paleo-climate proxies with much increased signal-to-noise properties as accessible from individual ice cores. They are used to discuss two time windows suspected to contain the volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius 79 CE and the Minoan eruption of Thera.
Reply: Thank you for recognizing all the key aspects of this work. As we have replied to the Anonymous Referees, we will cut the sections about the stacks and the Mediterranean eruptions for the manuscript to gain more readability and more focus on GICC21. We are grateful for the comments on these sections and we will certainly remember them for the upcoming work that is going to be necessary.
>> Below I provide a list of detailed comments to clarify some uncertainties which are aimed to improve the quality of the presentation of the results. It has been 16 years after GICC05 was constructed for this revision so I assume no additional revision is planned anytime soon for this time period. Thus the documentation of this timescale should be as comprehensive, clear and accurate as possible.
Reply: We agree and we will make sure we do our best at providing all the necessary information for the reproducibility of this work.
>>Before that I would like to summarize four more general points:
A) Input data for annual-layer countingIdeally, such an effort would include all available suitable ice cores. As presented, it appears to me that you have incorporated only the CFA data from NEEM analyses done in the field, but you have not incorporated the CFA-ICPMS data from the same core analyzed in the trace chemistry lab at the Desert Research Institute on the NEEM Steering Committee piece (abbreviated with NEEM-SC in the SOM file of Sigl et al., 2015). This dataset is published for the time period 500 BCE to 146 CE. Since you here use SC as an abbreviation for StratiCounter I wonder if you may have assumed that the file NEEM-SC describes the StratiCounter results of the traditional NEEM-CFA analyses. It is instead a completely independent analysis on a parallel NEEM ice-core section with state-of-the-art analytical instrumentation. The NS1- 2011 timescale is solely based on manual layer counting using the two NEEM aerosol datasets (see Figure 2 for a comparison of the calcium data) as reported by Sigl et al. (2015), though the co-author M. Winstrup may have done some StratiCounter analyses on the data. Clarification is thus needed what the NEEM-SC COUNT (Figure 6) actually represents. It is probably too late now to include the NEEM data from DRI into an already existing dating framework, but please point out that you haven’t considered all available ice-core analyses, and that there are differences in the input data used between GICC21 and NS1-2011.
Reply: We have aimed at gathering data that is representative for Greenland and suited for layer counting. It will be necessary to weaken all statements that imply that “all” data was used, because we recognized it is not so. We did in fact not use the NEEM-SC data from 500 BCE to 146 CE as input for StratiCounter. We will make the necessary remark in the revised manuscript and underline the differences in input data for NEEM. We will review the fine-tuning of NEEM in the section of NEEM-SC data and keep track of any differences we will find in the process.
B) Absolute age markersAbsolute age markers -- when correctly identified and well dated -- have the potential to improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of an annual-layer dated chronology. However, if they are ambiguous and in cases erroneous, they may also contribute to manifest in a dating bias (e.g., as was demonstrated on the examples of Vesuvius 79 and Hekla 1104; or the infamous 1453 Kuwae eruption to which ice-core chronologies from Antarctica had been tuned for many years). Finding the best balance is difficult and can be subjective. For NS1-2011, I have been trying to use minimal age constraints (1258, 939, 775, 626, 536) and let StratiCounter define the annual layers in between. I noted that key volcanic age markers discussed in the literature are exactly reproduced by GICC21, such as 536, 626 and 939 CE (Sigl et al., 2015); Okmok II in 43 BCE (McConnell et al., 2020) and Aniakchak II in 1629 BCE (Cole-Dai et
al., 2021). Since overall, there are quite some age differences between the different ice cores, I wonder if these ages have been prescribed when constructing the chronology?
On the other side, it appears that the 10Be anomalies identified by Sigl et al., (2015) which anchor the NS1-2011 chronology (see Figure 1) have not been used to constrain GICC21 for those ice cores for which this data exist (NEEM-2011-S1, NGRIP). Specifically, if I transfer the GICC21 ages to the only available annually dated 10Be data (i.e. cutting the samples along the annual-layer boundaries) from NEEM-2011- S1, it appears that the 10Be rise had started in 773 (see Figure 1), a year before the SPE event was supposed to have occurred in boreal summer 774 (Buntgen et al., 2018). A shift of GICC21 +1 year (consistent with NS1-2011) would also bring inline a sharp and short-lived sulfate spike in 800 CE with a short-lived cooling recorded by tree-rings in 800 CE (Sigl et al., 2015).
Another potential and frequently used age marker is radioactive fallout from nuclear weapon testing (peaking 1954-1963) which has been identified for some of the ice cores used in GICC21 (Arienzo et al., 2016). Have such age markers been considered for GICC21? This might also be used to validate the potential to use NH4 for age synchronization, because there are prominent biomass burning signals in Greenland ice cores in 1961 and 1964 (Legrand et al., 2016; McConnell et al., 2007). A precise and accurate chronology is in particular valuable for the most recent period due to the overlap with observations, reanalysis and remote sensing.
Reply: We did not prescribe the age of any age markers during the construction of our chronology, except for the Laki eruption, 1783 CE, and the Öræfajökull eruption, 1362 CE (but only for DYE-3, since the other cores have a very low ECM signal at this age). StratiCounter and the fine-tuning were operated as to independently assess the age of each and every layer, disregarding any information about the historical age of the markers. We thereby prove that a close comparison of a high volume of ice core data contains all the necessary information to date the tie-points, but that single ice cores sometimes fail to do so. This is true for Greenland but might not be relevant for Antarctica. As for 10Be tie-points, we aim at keeping the Greenland ice core timescale as independent as possible from tree rings. We argue that 1 year inaccuracy can be explained by our uncertainty. Of course, we will again verify if NGRIP and NEEM-2011-S1 are well matched with regards to the 10Be tie point, which we believe is already the case. But, similarly for what we do for the 2610 years BP 10Be peak (O’Hare et al., 2019), we consider these tie points to be an independent evaluation of the ice-core timescale agreement to tree-rings.
For the alignment of the ice-cores in between the constraints of the 105 major volcanic eruptions you make extensive use of NH4 (some 240 major tie-points according to the SOM) which is among other sources often emitted during biomass burning. The low number of widely accepted volcanic tie-points and the high number of NH4 tie-points, which to my knowledge hasn’t been used before to align ice cores across the Greenland ice sheet, are the biggest surprises in the manuscript. I wouldn’t go so far to reject the idea that many or even the majority of the NH4 tie-points are correctly tying together the corresponding biomass burning episodes, at least for ice cores located closely to each other, e.g. NGRIP and EastGRIP. But I don’t find the rational and supporting data convincingly laid out in this manuscript. If biomass burning events indeed left a unique fingerprint in the NH4 throughout Antarctica, you should be
able to validate this using independent biomass burning tracers (such as black carbon) not used for synchronization. There is a continuous 2,500 year record of black carbon available from the NEEM-2011- S1 and NEEM ice cores (Sigl et al., 2013; Sigl et al., 2015) cited by (Zennaro et al., 2014). Can you confirm in the NEEM ice cores the biomass burning source for your major NH4 tie-points by co-registration of BC peaks, considering that black carbon is in the pre-industrial atmosphere a unique fire tracer?
Whereas black carbon records are numerous in Antarctica they have never been used for chronological synchronization purposes owing to the large spatial and temporal variability of black carbon over Antarctica (Liu et al., 2021; McConnell et al., 2021). This doesn’t mean per se that it couldn’t be possible in Greenland but the burden of proof lies on the side of the authors.
Reply: We agree with you and the Anonymous Referees when you say our proof and reference list about NH+4 is incomplete and that we need to expand more on the topic. We remark that the method of NH+4 -matching has been used before (by Rasmussen et al., 2008 and by Legrand et al., 2016). In the revised manuscript we will provide a more exhaustive description of why we believe NH+4 peaks to be a supportive matching tool for Greenlandic ice cores, secondary to volcanic tie points but still better than basic interpolation across eruption signals. The black carbon record of NEEM-2011-S1 confirms our take about NH+4 peaks in Greenland ice being closely related to burning events, as can be seen in the figure below, but we cannot exclude some NH+4 peaks to come from other sources, i.e. there are some NH+4 peaks that don’t correspond to BC peaks. We will aim to review our NH+4 tie-points to verify if the co-occurrence with other species such as BC can better validate them as a tie-point between distant ice cores. As a preliminary test, we saw that most of our NH+4 tie points also correspond to BC peaks in NEEM-2011-S1.
(In Supplement: Figure 1 NEEM-2011-S1 Black Carbon and NH+4 comparison. The blue bars are not GICC21 tie-points but merely indicate the co-occurrence of NH+4 peaks with BC peaks.)
D) Thera eruptionIn advent of ongoing developments in the radiocarbon community and with the revised dating and stacking of relevant proxy records at hand, new insights may indeed be forthcoming; however, we need to be careful to not over-interpret the results. A minimum in stable isotope values in Greenland may have many explanations, including that of a major volcanic eruption. But in the absence of evidence of a clear stratospheric eruption signal in the ice cores (i.e. increased sulfuric acidity deposition over several years uniformly over Greenland) a volcanic source is the least likely explanation for the assumed cooling, let alone that is was specifically the Thera eruption. The Thera eruption has already previously been tied to a major cooling event in 1627 BCE, which subsequently was revised. This period interesting and worth reporting but I would try to emphasize the speculative nature of the current appraisal of the evidence.
Reply: If we were to include this paragraph in the revision, we would consider a rephrasing of our claim. Our effort in proposing a valid alternative to the 1627 BCE will be continued in our future work, unless of course someone finds Thera in an ice core before we do so. We will investigate more if the cooling event at 3600 b2k (1600 BCE) can be explained by other means.
Abstract:
>>L. 4 & l.10: Please be specific which ice-core chronology was revised (i.e. GICC05); there are several annual-layer counted chronologies for ice cores from Greenland notably from GISP2 (Meese-Sowers), NEEM-2011-S1 (NS1-2011) and NGRIP2 (DRI_NGRIP2). The latter two do not have a dating bias, and the one from GISP2 has not been assessed in your paper.
Reply: Thank you, we will edit that.
>>L. 16: The statement that “cooling lasted for up to a decade, longer than reported in previous studies of volcanic forcing” is incorrect. There is a large body of literature reporting that volcanic cooling may have lasted for up to a decade (Büntgen et al., 2020; Büntgen et al., 2016; Sigl et al., 2015; Tejedor et al., 2021), some of which you are citing in l.37-38.
Reply: Thank you for the information, our statement would have to be limited to Greenlandic ice cores.
>>L. 20-21: This is speculation. There is no evidence of a major stratospheric volcanic eruption at the time in any ice core so this stable isotope anomaly is most likely not related to volcanic activity. If at all this speculation belongs into the discussion rather than in the abstract.
Reply: We agree.
Main text:
>>L. 25-26: I would believe this statement is controversially discussed in the field of human history and difficult to prove either wrong or possible.
Reply: We will consider rephrasing our opening statement.
>>L. 59: Na+ instead of Na2+ (happened a few times throughout the paper)
Reply: Thank you, it will be corrected.
>>L. 59-63: How are the seasons of the impurity peaks inferred?
Reply: In our description, they are inferred relatively to the Na+ peak.
>>L. 68-68: Counting can also be done on insoluble parameters.
Reply: That is noted and will be added to the introduction.
>>L. 80-81: Whereas the use of sulfate for age synchronization is common in the field, the use of biomass burning events has to my knowledge never been used for this purpose, unless for ice cores drilled a few meters apart. Maybe this could be better highlighted by citing relevant literature.
Reply: We will report our method in more detail.
>>L. 80-87: the wording is a bit imprecise in this section: with sulfate you can’t “locate individual eruptions” but rather identify eruption signals in the ice strata; the duration of volcanic sulfate deposition is highly variable and depends on many factors, there are numerous sulfate depositions lasting less than a year, though these signals are usually not used for volcanic synchronization purposes, because they are not equally widespread and uniformly deposited over the Greenland ice sheet. I would suggest replacing “event” with “deposition signal” to make clear that you don’t refer to the start and end of the eruptions which you also called events in l.80.
Reply: Thank you for your correction, we will edit that.
>>L. 89-90: Consider adding the relevant tephra papers which overlap with the age range of GICC21, the
last 3,800 years. I haven’t found any mention of tephra in the methods and results sections, except a link to the Laki 1783 eruption. Have you been using the available tephra evidence to constrain the absolute dating (e.g. Veiðivötn Feb. 1477; Tianchi, Nov. 946) or relative dating (e.g., Churchill 853; Okmok II 43 BCE) of the ice cores in GICC21? If none of the tephra has been used to constrain or evaluate the GICC21 timescale, why mention it in the introduction of the paper?
Reply: Except for a few deposits that constitute the reference datum of the chronology (Laki and Öræfajökull), we did not make use of any other tephra tie-points with a constrained age. However, tephra knowledge has been useful in recognizing some tie-points that were sure to be the same across Greenlandic ice cores and as a validation of the timescale at a later stage. Hence, we will make this remark in the paper and reference the tephra-data that were most useful for establishing the ice-core match.
>>L. 105-107: the literature research on the ability of ammonium or other biomass burning proxies in ice core for synchronizing ice cores across the Greenland ice sheet is incomprehensive. There is a vast body of literature analyzing the extent to which biomass burning left unambiguous, reproducible signals between different proxies (e.g. ammonium, black carbon, vanillic acid) and/or between different ice core locations in Greenland or Antarctica (Keegan et al., 2014; Legrand et al., 2016; Liu et al., 2021; McConnell et al., 2007; Zdanowicz et al., 2018). Legrand et al. (2016) for example only identified 9 biomass burning events with synchronous NH4 deposition in a 200 year-window using three precisely dated high- accumulation ice cores.
Reply: Thank you for the information, we will deepen the description of this part of our methodology. We are aware of the review by Legrand et al., and we will add more proof that NH+4 can be used for ice-core matching. As we replied to An.Ref.#2, we by no means think that NH+4 is better than volcanic matching, but we think it is a valid candidate for a secondary matching tool. We will add a figure in the Supplement to show more examples of the NH+4 peak patterns we have used in our work.
>>L. 110-115: Have these events been used for the GICC21 chronology? If so, it would be valuable to provide a table with the ages and corresponding depths for each of the ice cores in which 10Be anomalies have been identified. I have been plotting the only available annual 10Be data from the NEEM-2011-S1 ice core (Sigl et al., 2015) on the GICC21 chronology and note that the 10Be rise occurred in 773 CE a year before the solar proton event has occurred.
Reply: Thank you for verifying the 774 CE event. We will investigate why the 10Be in GICC21 has occurred 1 year before the tree-ring expected date, even though this can be explained by uncertainties. We will not make any changes to the timescale unless we find a very clear layer incongruence that caused 775 CE to be anticipated in our chronology. Again, we would like to be as independent from tree-rings as possible.
>>L. 131: Incorrect ice core stated here: “we identify tephra particles and determine that volcanic shards extracted from a depth of 429.3m in the GRIP ice core are likely due to the 79AD Vesuvius eruption”. (Barbante et al., 2013)
Reply: Thank you, we will edit that.
>>L. 132: Very vague statement. Recent geochemical analyses of tephra shards from the NEEM-2011-S1 directly associated with the large acidity peak demonstrate that the peak is not linked to the Vesuvius eruption but points to other potential sources including from Alaska. The tephra from NEEM-2011-S1 is geochemically distinct from the shards described by Barbante at al. (2013) which have no direct stratigraphic context with the acid peak, but appear a year earlier. Note that the cited Discussions paper is now in press.
Reply: We will add more details to our statement.
>>L. 133: I think the synchronization has never been an issue here. The sulfate peak is large and clear. It is the association of the peak with a historic event and the subsequent transfer of its supposed age and uncertainty into the GICC05 framework which were causing an issue.
Reply: Thank you, we will clarify that there is no issue of synchronizing ice cores, but the attribution of Vesuvius is what caused the problem.
>>L. 134: The issue of a potential age bias in the GICC05 chronology has also been raised by e.g. (Baillie, 2008, 2010; Lohne et al., 2014, 2013; Torbenson et al., 2015).
Reply: Thank you for the information, we will add the suggested references.
>>L. 137-138: This is incorrect and needs to be corrected. Coulter et al. (2012) was targeting the supposed Hekla 1104 period in three ice cores (Dye-3, GRIP, NGRIP). No tephra was found in Dye-3, and GRIP but four shards were identified in NGRIP (QUB-1186). However, these are situated c. four years before the onset of the massive sulfate peak which had been previously attributed to Hekla 1104 eruption in GICC05. We have also targeted this sulfur peak in the NEEM-2011-S1 and TUNU2013 ice cores (using large cross sections) and have not found any tephra, as summarized by Plunkett et al., (in press). Consequently, the NS1-2011 (Sigl et al., 2015) and DRI_NGRIP2 (McConnell et al., 2018) annual-layer counted chronologies have not been constrained by this erroneous match to the historic Hekla 1104 eruption. Moreover, no sulfur isotope measurements have been reported from any Greenland ice core in the literature. A recent study focusing on this eruption signals in ice cores has suggested that multiple eruptions, including an eruption of Asama in 1108 may have contributed to the distinctive signal in the Greenland ice cores (Guillet et al., 2020).
Reply: Thank you for the clarification, we will edit our statement to include this information.
>>L. 161-163: To clarify, the new NS1-2011 chronology (Sigl et al., 2015) constructed for the NEEM-2011-S1 ice core is between 1258 CE and 2013 CE identical with the previous age model for this ice core which was constrained by volcanic eruption dates taken from GICC05 and annual-layer counting in between these marker years. Before 1258 CE, the NS1-2011 chronology was no longer constrained by GICC05 including the previous matches to Vesuvius 79 CE and Hekla 1104 CE, but was instead constrained by three well-dated observations of volcanic dust veils from documentary sources (i.e. 536, 626 and 939 CE) and the solar proton events of 774 and 993 CE. Between these marker events, StratiCounter was used to identify annual-layer boundaries in the multi-parameter impurity records. Other than Samalas, no bipolar tie-point is employed to constrain NS1-2011 before 1258 CE.
Reply: We will rephrase the introduction to this paragraph to be more precise.
>>L. 161-163: Sigl et al., (2013) manually interpreted annual layers in NEEM-2011-S1 in between the prescribed GICC05 dated volcanic markers. Sigl et al. (2015) used StratiCounter on the same NEEM-2011- S1 dataset after replacing the GICC05 dated volcanic markers with the new tie-points as described above.
Reply: Thank you for the information.
>>L. 164-165: To clarify, the 15 volcanic match-points between NGRIP and NEEM referred to here are only for the time period 88 CE until 500 BCE. For the time period for which NGRIP sulfate data was available (190-1999 CE) we synchronized the NGRIP sulfate data to the NS1-2011 chronology using 123 volcanic tie-points identified in NGRIP and NEEM-2011-S1.
Reply: We will report this in the revised manuscript.
>>L. 166: The number of years counted in the aerosol records from the two independent NEEM core analyses was c. 590 years. How about “were conducted until 500 BCE”?
Reply: Thank you, we will rephrase our sentence.
>>L. 182/83: Are you sure you used all available data from Greenland deep ice cores? Based on section 2.3, you used only the measurements done on the main NEEM core in the field by traditional CFA, but you omitted the data from the trace element analyses done on NEEM between 500 BCE and 146 CE at the Desert Research Institute, which is the data mainly used for the NS1-2011 chronology before 88 CE. Analyzed with two high-res. mass spectrometers in a class 100 clean room, this data is ideally suited to resolve intra-annual variations in multiple impurities records (e.g. Sigl et al., 2016; McConnell et al., 2018) and less likely to be contaminated during data acquisition compared to the CFA field analyses (see
Figure 2, which I want to emphasize is not representative for the entire NEEM CFA analyses). Also the
deep GISP2 ice core has been dated by annual-layer counting.
Reply: We did not, and we will weaken our statement. We will verify the agreement of the NEEM-SC data with the field-CFA data, in order to check once more that the fine tuning in the relevant timeframe is consistent, and include this in our revised manuscript. We also intend to compare the GISP2 with GICC21, but we did not include it in our timescale because of the proximity to GRIP and the lower quality of the ECM after 300 m.
>>L. 214-215: In which ice cores was tephra found? The Coulter et al. (2012) reference is missing here describing the tephra results from NGRIP. Trace elements confirming the link to Thera are presented in Plunkett et al. (2017).
Reply: This sentence is going to be removed.
>>L. 233-251: Your description of the datasets is a bit imbalanced. You could elaborate a little on the NorthGRIP2 dataset, which just like EastGRIP include a vast range of species measured continuously at high resolution, but at a site with almost twice the accumulation rate of EastGRIP. Since GICC21 closely follows the independent annual-layer counted DRI_NGRIP2 chronology (McConnell et al., 2018) for most part, it seems reasonable to assume that this new record is the cornerstone of the new chronology.
Reply: Yes, this dataset was important to have a continuous dataset of the NorthGRIP site. We describe NGRIP2 a few lines on, we will make sure to highlight its importance.
>>L. 333-340: I am still missing when you lay out your arguments (ideally backed up with data and/or relevant publications) why you assume that NH4 peaks are synchronous across Greenland with a frequency of 0.1 years-1. Are these NH4 peaks thought to be from individual biomass burning plumes? Is there observational evidence for such widespread deposition? For volcanic eruptions the long atmospheric lifetime (especially following stratospheric eruptions) provides very distinctive sulfate signals regarding duration, magnitude and shape. Therefore, their use is well established in the ice-core dating community. For NH4, a similar framework is still missing, and the data as presented in the paper doesn’t yet convince me that the additional use of NH4 will be better than a tight volcanic alignment with annual-layer counting in between. In the past 2,500 years, the frequency of volcanic eruptions detectable in Greenland ice cores is 0.09 years-1 (Sigl et al., 2015).
Reply: We don’t go as far as speculating on the origin of the NH+4 spikes, for which we will gather more literature in the revised manuscript. We simply noted that between volcanic tie-points that are widely spaced (there are some parts of the timescale where the frequency of adequate volcanic tie-points drops to around 1 in every 100 years) one could clearly see distinctive NH+4 patterns that were used as supportive evidence for the layer fine-tuning. We agree with you that sufficient proof of this observation was lacking and we will prepare example figures.
>>L. 380-381: Necessarily, if you aim for a unified, synchronized chronology for several cores, subjective decisions need to be made. And these subjective decisions can become influenced by prior knowledge that we have. For example, on what we know about the dating bias towards too old ages in GICC05 throughout the Holocene. The age offsets between ice-core 10Be and tree-ring 14C are well established. Frost-ring events potentially linked to volcanic eruptions have been proposed in the last years. Can you comment on steps taken to ensure such prior information has not influenced the manual fine tuning?
Reply: Yes, subjective bias is indeed an issue and we have taken multiple precautions to minimize the problem, which will be reported in more detail in the revised manuscript.
Firstly, we think one important aspect has been that we completed multiple iterations of our fine-tuning in separate sessions, often targeting non-subsequent sections of the timescale. Only some of the co-authors were directly involved in the fine-tuning process. Giulia was the one keeping the overview, and did one whole fine-tuning iteration of the timescale by herself. Then Sune and Mai became observers and they repeated the fine-tuning together with Giulia in many meetings, either with one or both of them. We (as the fine-tuning team) often went over the same depth intervals multiple times, especially when having doubts. But we always started from the original StratiCounter layer count, recording the results of our fine-tuning iterations in a logbook, from which we could see that the same fine-tuning results were being reported over and over, thus reducing the uncertainty of the fine-tuning in itself. The two additional observers, Sune and Mai, would be exposed to a quite random problem of ice-core fine tuning every time. By this we tried to minimize the bias of the two more experienced observers, who might have had some personal bias about the topic.
Secondly, for ages older than Samalas, we only checked on the expected or reported ages of e.g. volcanic eruptions in the very last stages of the project.
Thirdly, we did not constrain any of the ages of the timescale except for the reference datum. We were only influenced by some very known eruptions younger than Samalas (e.g. we knew Katmai could only be in 1912 and not in, say, 1915 CE), but otherwise all ages older than Samalas were estimated as independently as possible from known ages. That is why the uncertainty estimation is so important to us, because as much as we would like our timescale to be accurate, we cannot be sure we did not misinterpret a layer or a volcanic tie-point somewhere in the timescale.
>>L. 383-84: I would have limited this exercise to volcanic eruptions for which tephra was clearly identified in ice cores, therefore to my knowledge excluding Hekla 1510. Typo for the 1362 eruption. How did you identify the Oræfajökull 1362 eruption in the EastGRIP, NorthGRIP, NEEM and NEEM-2011-S1 ice cores? There is hardly any sulfate peak in many ice cores, nor was the tephra identified in the GRIP ice core (Coulter et al. 2012) associated with an ECM peak.
Reply: Öræfajökull is not clearly identifiable in many ice cores, as you say, but it was nonetheless an important eruption for the timescale because of the presence of tephra in DYE-3. We will consider editing the table to include better resolved eruptions.
>>L. 471: Do you argue that the uncertainty in GICC21 is never below 2 years?
Reply: Yes, since depositional dynamics might delay volcanic signals we need to accommodate for some minor stretching of the timescale. We state 2 years as a conservative general rule, even though one could argue for a smaller uncertainty close to a small number of eruptions characterized by sharp ECM peaks e.g. from Iceland. Similarly, one could use solar events to constrain the timescale down to one year or less, assuming that the tree-ring chronologies are accurate. We have chosen the conservative 2-year estimate.
>>L. 519: Why is your frequency of volcanic tie-points so low compared to the frequency of eruptions in Sigl et al. (2015), 1 every 11 years?
Reply: Because not all eruptions make good inter-ice-core tie-points (e.g. Öræfajökull ). In this paper we don’t attempt to make an exhaustive record of all eruptions ever recorded in ice cores, we focus on the synchronization problem.
>>L. 544: Figure 6: It seems that the comparison of GICC05 and NS1-2011 has been omitted between 87 CE and 187 CE creating an apparent gap in the data, which doesn’t exist. Is this correct? GICC05 ages of NEEM-2011-S1 are available by Sigl et al., (2013) and the corresponding NS1-2011 ages are published in Sigl et al., 2015 together with a transfer function between NS1-2011 and GICC05. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14565#Sec24
Reply: Thank you for pointing this out, we agree with you that the gap of the NS1-2011 chronology is apparent. We have figured out a way to solve the issue, which depends on NEEM-2011-S1 not being plotted in this figure. In the supplement to Sigl15, we found the NorthGRIP 1 match to NEEM (down to 190 CE), and the new NEEM data (from 146 CE to -505 BCE). The transfer function to GICC05 is reported until 190 CE, and a set of tie-points between NorthGRIP and NEEM is reported from 146 CE to -505 BCE. Hence the gap of 50 years.
We will use the NEEM-2011-S1 dated on GICC05 (from the Sigl et al., 2013, supplement) and compare it to NS1-2011 and GICC21 ages. This should close the gap in the figure.
>>L. 548: Please add reference for the NS1-2011 chronology (Sigl et al., 2015).
Reply: Yes.
>>L. 553: Wouldn’t a potentially wrong NH4 tie-point also produce a drift between the ice cores?
Reply: Yes, we will rephrase ‘volcanic match is different’ to ‘ice-core match is different’.
>>L. 591: There are no 130-year long periods without any volcanic eruption. To clarify: Do you mean you don’t see a volcanic eruption in any of the cores or a volcanic eruption signal which can be detected in all of the cores? Using established methods and the NGRIP2 chemistry data (McConnell et al., 2018), volcanic eruptions can be detected on average every 13 years, with the longest repose period lasting less
<60 years.
Reply: Thank you we will rephrase this sentence. We meant the spacing between adequate multi-core tie-points, not a lack of eruptions.
>>L. 598-99: This may be true, but it doesn’t mean per se that several ice cores are always better than a single ice core (as the previous age bias in the GICC05 ice cores has shown). Note, there is no offset between the GICC21 and DRI_NGRIP2 chronology for almost 1,500 years (i.e. between 200 BCE and 1270 CE, Figure 3) despite the latter being based on a single ice core (NGRIP2), and only four of the annual- layer decisions in GICC21 deviate from those from the previous annual-layer-counting age model (McConnell et al., 2018). The observed offset is more likely attributable to the reduced core quality of NEEM-2011-S1 is some sections around 300 CE.
Reply: Thank you for this remark, the reduced core quality is also a valid explanation and we will add it to our sentence.
>>L. 661: better to write following all selected (or all 105) eruptions. The number of eruptions detectable in Greenland is much larger (i.e. Sigl et al., 2015 detected 221 eruptions in Greenland in only 2,500 years).
Reply: Yes.
>>L. 674: Have you accounted in your stacked analyses for the fact that volcanic eruptions often formed temporal clusters (e.g. 536/540, 1453/1459, 1809/1815), and that an apparent persistency (i.e. your secondary dip) may be an artifact caused by secondary major eruptions? In tree-ring research on the volcanic climate response, this has been taken into account (Büntgen et al., 2020). In Plunkett et al., (in press) we demonstrate that a decadal scale reduction of d18O from Dye-3, GRIP and NGRIP is explained by the cooling response following a cluster of eruptions dated 536, 540 and 547 CE.
Reply: We have checked that close eruptions did not affect our results significantly, by separating clustered eruptions and only averaging the signal of the latest one in the cluster. In the end we chose to compute all eruptions in the stack, but this topic will be of course be addressed in our future work on this matter.
>>L. 717: I am not sure one can cite a personal communication from a co-author. The most comprehensive and recent review article of tephra deposits in the Holocene in Greenland is (Plunkett and Pilcher, 2018) which also addresses the situation for tephra from the Mediterranean.
Reply: We will refrain from citing pers. comm. from co-authors in the future.
>>L. 724: In 2015, no annually dated Northern Hemispheric temperature reconstruction was available, thus we created the N-Tree composite. In the meantime, more comprehensive reconstructions have become available and have already been used to demonstrate the accuracy of the NS1-2011 chronology in the Common Era (Büntgen et al., 2020). Since NS1-2011 and GICC21 are close to each other, I would assume that these results would look the same for GICC21.
>>L. 726: eruptions identified in Greenland ice cores.
Reply: We will edit this.
>>L. 731: Have you analyzed relevant sections from any of the ice cores encompassing 79 CE for the presence of tephra?
Reply: No, we did not.
>>L. 737: I miss the relevance of the radiocarbon dating of material in context with the exactly dated 79 CE Vesuvius eruption for the problem of identifying volcanic fallout from this eruption in Greenland. I suggest that the point would be better removed, to bring the focus more back to the ice core chronology.
Reply: We agree that this paragraph can be removed. The intention was to compare Greenland with evidence close to the eruption site, as a proof of concept for the following Thera paragraph.
>>L. 762: Please provide relevant references here.
>>L. 767: Here and again later (e.g. l. 854) you refer to the 3560 year b2k ice-core anomaly. In the supplementary data the rise of the ECM signal is in 3562 year b2k, and the peak in 3561 year b2k. Can you please clarify the age of the eruption signal in GICC21?
Reply: The exact age we found for the rise is 3561.4 years b2k (-1562.4 BCE). We think that for most cores the signal is contained within one year, but it is appears that EastGRIP has a smeared peak that lasts into the next year.
>>L. 773: I think it would be appropriate to cite in this section the pioneering work of (Baillie, 2010) who noted a number of the mismatches between tree-ring anomalies and ice-core acidity peaks which now appear to have been corrected.
Reply: We will keep this in mind.
>>L. 785: If the assumed 10-year cooling would have been caused by a volcanic eruption it would have been through the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The sharp and short-lived (1 year only) ECM spike characterized by strong spatial variations in Greenland is more likely the result of a tropospheric eruption rather than a major stratospheric eruption. There is no credible evidence in the ECM data and available sulfate records from Greenland (GISP2, (Zielinski et al., 1996)) around 1610 BCE of any significant stratospheric sulfur injection. Linking the drop in d18O to a volcanic eruption is thus only speculation. Internal variability, changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture sources and/or solar activity are just as likely candidates to explain the d18O feature.
Reply: Thank you for checking this, we will investigate further on the isotope drop in the future.
>>L. 788: It would be helpful for future research if you provided (if possible) metadata on which ice cores and which cross sections (cm2) have been sampled continuously in this time window. To my understanding, NGRIP ice core has been fairly extensively studied by Coulter et al., (2012); GRIP was studied by Hammer et al (1987). NEEM, EastGRIP may have been studied by Eliza Cook, cited before as
personal communications and this paper would greatly benefit from more specific detail about the nature of any tephra work contributing to GICC21. The new timescale revision will certainly stimulate new studies around this time period, and it would be helpful to know the state-of-the-art regarding tephra investigations in this critical period.
Reply: We will consider making such a file for future studies on the matter.
>>L. 818: This additional ±2 year uncertainty could be reduced for a number of events for which (1) atmospheric transport times are short (<weeks), (2) the timing of tephra arrival is well documented by high-time resolution particle records and (3) independent age constraints (e.g. dendrochronological, documentary or tree-ring evidence) can provide sub-seasonal information. I would argue that Veiðivötn (Feb. 1477 (Abbott et al., 2021)), Tianchi (November 946 (Oppenheimer et al., 2017) whose tephra in Greenland is reported by Sun et al. 2014) and the solar proton events in 993 CE, 774 CE and 660 BCE can all be dated with uncertainties less than ±2 years, and the list could be expanded including Eldgjá 939, unidentified volcanic eruptions in 626, 536 CE (Sigl et al., 2015) and the eruption of Okmok II in winter 44/43 BCE (McConnell et al., 2020). I have, however, no objections if you are leaning towards a more conservative approach regarding the uncertainties for these events.
Reply: Thank you for this comment, we will consider this in our revision.
>>L. 823: A multi-ice core comparison is favorable rather than essential (see Figure 3). I would further argue that the single ice-core WD2014 chronology is more accurate than the multi ice-core GICC05 chronology over the Holocene (Sigl et al., 2016). It is the quality of the expression of the intra-annual variations that matters most, not the number of ice cores.
Reply: Yes, the quality of the annual signal is a key ingredient for the ice core timescale. We will rephrase ourselves to include your point. We produced our timescale despite ice core data quality of single ice-cores preventing us to make a single-ice core timescale such as WDC2014. Hence, the number of ice cores is an important feature for the Greenlandic timescale, especially because we continued beyond the 2500 b2k age limit of the NS1-2011 chronology and therefore had much less historical evidence to rely on. For the future of the GICC21 revision, we need to use as much as possible of the existing data.
>>L. 853: Typo: Droughts.
Reply: Yes.
>>L. 911: All datasets used for the timescale should be made publicly available at high depth resolution to allow for independent validation of the timescale. This was not possible for GICC05, but is now mandatory under FAIR open data principles.
Reply: We understand your concern and we will make sure that in the revised manuscript we explain more clearly where data can be found. We emphasize that all data will be available to the reader on Pangaea, but as Pangaea currently has a rather long processing time, not all data sets may get a doi in time for inclusion in this manuscript. For NEEM and NorthGRIP CFA data, the Pangaea repository listed (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.935838) already contains data of all the species we have used in our work (ECM, Na, Ca, NH+4, NO3), and the moratorium will be lifted as soon as the corresponding ESSD paper is published.
As for EastGRIP data, the ECM has since been made available at https://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/data/. For the EastGRIP CFA, Erhardt will make a Pangaea repository, but preliminary data can be obtained by Erhardt.
The two other ice-cores (DYE-3 and GRIP), for which we only used ECM and isotopes, already have published ECM and decadal-resolution isotopes, and we will make sure to refer to those publications in the revised manuscript. As for the full-resolution isotopes and ECM data from GRIP and DYE-3, they will be published separately by Rasmussen in a paper that makes data from GICC05 and GICC21 available. The files have been submitted to Pangaea.
Authors who want to access data sets which are not published when this manuscript is published, will be able to get the datafiles from the author team (with preliminary metadata, as the metadata is subject to review by Pangaea editors).
Kind regards,
Sinnl et al.
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AC5: 'Reply on CC1', Giulia Sinnl, 31 Jan 2022
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EC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-155', Eric Wolff, 17 Jan 2022
You will see that you have 3 anonymous reviews and a community comment from Michael Sigl. You now need to respond to all the comments (including those of Sigl). I will give a formal guidance about producing a new version after you have posted your comments. However just to give you some context, I can see that all reviewers think this is a valuable contribution and improvement. However I note the point that since this version of the age scale is likely to persist for many years, it should be as good as possible, so please do pay attention to the detailed comments including the questions from Michael Sigl about whether you included his CFA data and the 10Be spike dates from his paper (plus the more recent 660 BCE date).
It may be helpful if I comment on two other issues.
a) Two reviewers have suggested that it might be beneficial to separate out the sections on the climate response to volcanoes and the identification of Mediterranean eruptions from the rest of the paper. While you are welcome to consider this, I am in principle happy to have them included in this paper as examples of how the new timescale can be used. In commenting on this proposals, you should justfify your decision to include them, but I am not insisting on a separation.
b) I am concerned about data availability. We have far too many examples where data are promised but never appear, and for this kind of work it is mandatory that the data be available. In your response please elaborate on the papers in prep and submitted that would release the data, so that I can assess whether the timescale for their release is appropriate wrt this paper.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-155-EC1
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