Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Nov 2021
Research article |
| 02 Nov 2021
| 02 Nov 2021
Freshwater routing in eddy-permitting simulations of the last deglacial: the impact of realistic freshwater discharge
Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
Heather J. Andres
Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
Alan Condron
Geology & Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Lev Tarasov
Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
Related authors
Ryan Love, Glenn A. Milne, Parviz Ajourlou, Soran Parang, Lev Tarasov, and Konstantin Latychev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2491, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A relatively recent advance in glacial isostatic adjustment modelling has been the development of models that include 3D Earth structure, as opposed to 1D structure. However, a major limitation is the computational expense. We have developed a method using artificial neural networks to emulate the influence of 3D Earth models to affordably constrain the viscosity parameter space. Our results indicate that the misfits are of a scale such that useful predictions of relative sea level can be made.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We model the sediment-ice-climate system over North America for the last 2.58 Myr showing that ice sheets are capable of excavating features the size of the Hudson bay. This work provides a basis for reconstructing past landscapes important to climate modelling efforts, helping us to understand past earth system change.
Kevin Hank and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-493, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The ice-rafted debris signature of Heinrich Events in marine sedimentary cores is usually attributed to massive ice discharge from the Laurentide ice sheet. However, the driving mechanism of this pulsed discharge remains unclear. We compare three previously proposed hypotheses and examine the role of relevant system processes. We find ice stream surge cycling is the most likely mechanism, but its character is sensitive to both the geothermal heat flux and the form of the basal drag law.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
Ryan Love, Glenn A. Milne, Parviz Ajourlou, Soran Parang, Lev Tarasov, and Konstantin Latychev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2491, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A relatively recent advance in glacial isostatic adjustment modelling has been the development of models that include 3D Earth structure, as opposed to 1D structure. However, a major limitation is the computational expense. We have developed a method using artificial neural networks to emulate the influence of 3D Earth models to affordably constrain the viscosity parameter space. Our results indicate that the misfits are of a scale such that useful predictions of relative sea level can be made.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Benoit S. Lecavalier, Lev Tarasov, Greg Balco, Perry Spector, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Christo Buizert, Catherine Ritz, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Robert Mulvaney, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Michael J. Bentley, and Jonathan Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3573–3596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution constraint database version 2 (AntICE2) consists of a large variety of observations that constrain the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last glacial cycle. This includes observations of past ice sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. The database is intended to improve our understanding of past Antarctic changes and for ice sheet model calibrations.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This overview: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have little interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out some tractable inferential steps for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This review: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have limited interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out tractable Bayesian inference for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Henry Nye and Alan Condron
Clim. Past, 17, 1409–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyzes the uniqueness of a paleoclimate event entitled the Bølling–Allerød Younger Dryas (BA/YD) through a statistical lens in order to better understand its relation to other events similar to it. Furthermore, we implement a novel statistical method entitled PCOut in order to measure the BA/YD's various elements of uniqueness in existing paleoclimate records. We suggest future use of this method for paleoclimate research that aims to assess uniqueness across multiple criteria.
Taimaz Bahadory, Lev Tarasov, and Heather Andres
Clim. Past, 17, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of last glacial inception simulations using a fully coupled ice–climate model for the Northern Hemisphere. The ensemble largely captures inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. Notable features include an ice bridge across Davis Strait and between Greenland and Iceland. Via an equilibrium climate response experiment, we also demonstrate the potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.
Kate E. Ashley, Robert McKay, Johan Etourneau, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Alan Condron, Anna Albot, Xavier Crosta, Christina Riesselman, Osamu Seki, Guillaume Massé, Nicholas R. Golledge, Edward Gasson, Daniel P. Lowry, Nicholas E. Barrand, Katelyn Johnson, Nancy Bertler, Carlota Escutia, Robert Dunbar, and James A. Bendle
Clim. Past, 17, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability off East Antarctica. Our record shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene (~ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth, which slowed basal ice shelf melting.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Heather J. Andres and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 15, 1621–1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Abrupt climate shifts of large magnitudes were common during glacial states, with explanations centred on the oceans. However, winds drive ocean surface currents so shifts in mean wind conditions could also have played a critical role. In a small ensemble of transient deglacial simulations, we find abrupt shifts in both jet stream location and variability over the North Atlantic. We show that the eastern North American ice sheet margin strongly constrains regional jet characteristics.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Taimaz Bahadory and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3883-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new coupling between the Glacial Systems Model and the
LOVECLIM intermediate complexity climate model. The coupling is
distinguished from that of previous studies by greater completeness
and accuracy, with the intent of capturing the major feedbacks between
ice sheets and climate on glacial cycle timescales. The fully coupled
model will be used to examine the ice/climate phase space of past
glacial cycles.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Mark Kavanagh and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3497–3513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3497-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate BrAHMs (BAsal Hydrology Model): a new
physically based basal hydrology model, which captures the two main
types of subglacial drainage systems (high-pressure distributed systems and
low-pressure channelized systems). BrAHMs is designed for continental
glacial cycle scale contexts, for which computational speed is
essential. This speed is accomplished, in part, by numerical methods
novel to basal hydrology contexts.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Mohammad Hizbul Bahar Arif, Lev Tarasov, and Tristan Hauser
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-276, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This study is a first step answer to the following question: Can you
use emulators (machine learning techniques) to make the output of fast
simple climate models (a 2-D energy balance model in this test case)
indistinguishable from that of a much more computationally expensive
General Circulation climate model (GCM) within the uncertainties of
GCMs? Our preliminary test of this concept for large spatio-temporal
contexts gives a positive answer.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Masa Kageyama, Didier M. Roche, Paul J. Valdes, Andrea Burke, Rosemarie Drummond, W. Richard Peltier, and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript presents the experiment design for the PMIP4 Last Deglaciation Core experiment: a transient simulation of the last deglaciation, 21–9 ka. Specified model boundary conditions include time-varying orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, ice meltwater fluxes and other geographical changes (provided for 26–0 ka). The context of the experiment and the choices for the boundary conditions are explained, along with the future direction of the working group.
André Düsterhus, Alessio Rovere, Anders E. Carlson, Benjamin P. Horton, Volker Klemann, Lev Tarasov, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Tom Bradwell, Jorie Clark, Andrea Dutton, W. Roland Gehrels, Fiona D. Hibbert, Marc P. Hijma, Nicole Khan, Robert E. Kopp, Dorit Sivan, and Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Clim. Past, 12, 911–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This review/position paper addresses problems in creating new interdisciplinary databases for palaeo-climatological sea-level and ice-sheet data and gives an overview on new advances to tackle them. The focus therein is to define and explain strategies and highlight their importance to allow further progress in these fields. It also offers important insights into the general problem of designing competitive databases which are also applicable to other communities within the palaeo-environment.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
K. Le Morzadec, L. Tarasov, M. Morlighem, and H. Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3199–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A long-term challenge for any model of complex large-scale processes
is accounting for the impact of unresolved sub-grid (SG) processes.
We quantify the impact of SG mass-balance and ice fluxes on glacial
cycle ensemble results for North America. We find no easy solutions to
accurately capture these impacts. We show that SG process
representation and associated parametric uncertainties can have
significant impact on coarse resolution model results for glacial
cycle ice sheet evolution.
H. Beltrami, G. S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath, and J. E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 10, 1693–1706, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, 2014
R. Briggs, D. Pollard, and L. Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 7, 1949–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Andres, H. J. and Tarasov, L.: Towards understanding potential atmospheric
contributions to abrupt climate changes: characterizing changes to the North
Atlantic eddy-driven jet over the last deglaciation, Clim. Past, 15,
1621–1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, 2019. a
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007. a
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Abe-Ouchi, A., Jungclaus, J.,
and Peterschmitt, J.-Y.: The Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project
contribution to CMIP5, CLIVAR Exchanges, 56, 15–19, 2011. a
Brendryen, J., Haflidason, H., Yokoyama, Y., Haaga, K. A., and Hannisdal, B.:
Eurasian Ice Sheet collapse was a major source of Meltwater Pulse 1A 14,600
years ago, Nat. Geosci., 13, 363–368, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0567-4,
2020. a, b
Broecker, W. S.: GEOLOGY: Was the Younger Dryas Triggered by a Flood?, Science,
312, 1146–1148, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1123253, 2006. a
Broecker, W. S., Kennett, J. P., Flower, B. P., Teller, J. T., Trumbore, S.,
Bonani, G., and Wolfli, W.: Routing of meltwater from the Laurentide Ice
Sheet during the Younger Dryas cold episode, Nature, 341, 318–321,
https://doi.org/10.1038/341318a0, 1989. a, b
Brown, N. and Galbraith, E. D.: Hosed vs. unhosed: interruptions of the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a global coupled
model, with and without freshwater forcing, Clim. Past, 12,
1663–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1663-2016, 2016. a
Chelton, D. and Xie, S.-P.: Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction at Oceanic
Mesoscales, Oceanography, 23, 52–69, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2010.05, 2010. a
Chelton, D. B., deSzoeke, R. A., Schlax, M. G., El Naggar, K., and Siwertz, N.:
Geographical Variability of the First Baroclinic Rossby Radius of
Deformation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 28, 433–460,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1998)028<0433:gvotfb>2.0.co;2, 1998. a
Condron, A. and Hill, J. C.: Timing of iceberg scours and massive ice-rafting
events in the subtropical North Atlantic, Nat. Commun., 12, 3668,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23924-0, 2021. a, b
Deschamps, P., Durand, N., Bard, E., Hamelin, B., Camoin, G., Thomas, A. L.,
Henderson, G. M., Okuno, J., and Yokoyama, Y.: Ice-sheet collapse and
sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago, Nature, 483,
559–564, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10902, 2012. a, b, c
England, J. H. and Furze, M. F.: New evidence from the western Canadian Arctic
Archipelago for the resubmergence of Bering Strait, Quaternary Res., 70,
60–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2008.03.001, 2008. a
Fairbanks, R. G.: A 17,000-year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of
glacial melting rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep-ocean circulation,
Nature, 342, 637–642, https://doi.org/10.1038/342637a0, 1989. a
Fichot, C. G., Kaiser, K., Hooker, S. B., Amon, R. M. W., Babin, M., Bélanger,
S., Walker, S. A., and Benner, R.: Pan-Arctic distributions of continental
runoff in the Arctic Ocean, Sci. Rep., 3, 1053, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep01053,
2013. a
Gong, X., Knorr, G., Lohmann, G., and Zhang, X.: Dependence of abrupt Atlantic
meridional ocean circulation changes on climate background states,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3698–3704, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50701, 2013. a
Gregoire, L. J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Valdes, P. J., and Ivanovic, R.: Abrupt
Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse
1a rapid sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9130–9137,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070356, 2016. a
Hanebuth, T.: Rapid Flooding of the Sunda Shelf: A Late-Glacial Sea-Level
Record, Science, 288, 1033–1035, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5468.1033, 2000. a
Hirschi, J. J., Barnier, B., Böning, C., Biastoch, A., Blaker, A. T., Coward,
A., Danilov, S., Drijfhout, S., Getzlaff, K., Griffies, S. M., Hasumi, H., Hewitt, H., Iovino, D., Kawasaki, T., Kiss, A. E., Koldunov, N., Marzocchi, A., Mecking, J. V.,, Moat, Molines, J.-M.,, Myers,, Penduff,, Roberts, Treguier, A.-M., Sein, D. V., Sidorenko, D., Small, J., Spence, P., Thompson, L., Weijer, W., and Xu, X.:
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in High-Resolution Models,
J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 125, e2019JC015522, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jc015522,
2020. a, b, c
Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., and Han, W.: Role of the Bering Strait in the
thermohaline circulation and abrupt climate change, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 34, L05704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl028906, 2007. a, b
Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., Han, W., Timmermann, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., Liu, Z.,
Washington, W. M., Large, W., Abe-Ouchi, A., Kimoto, M., Lambeck, K., and Wu, B.: Role of
the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation
and glacial climate stability, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 109, 6417–6422, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116014109, 2012. a, b
Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., Han, W., Otto-Bliestner, B., Abe-Ouchi, A., and
Rosenbloom, N.: Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global
climate under different background climates, Prog. Oceanogr., 132,
174–196, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.02.004, 2015. a, b
Jakobsson, M., Pearce, C., Cronin, T. M., Backman, J., Anderson, L. G., Barrientos, N., Björk, G., Coxall, H., de Boer, A., Mayer, L. A., Mörth, C.-M., Nilsson, J., Rattray, J. E., Stranne, C., Semiletov, I., and O'Regan, M.: Post-glacial flooding of the Bering Land Bridge dated to 11 cal ka BP based on new geophysical and sediment records, Clim. Past, 13, 991–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-991-2017, 2017. a
Kageyama, M., Merkel, U., Otto-Bliesner, B., Prange, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Roche, D. M., Singarayer, J., Swingedouw, D., and X Zhang: Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study, Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Karami, M. P., Myers, P. G., de Vernal, A., Tremblay, L. B., and Hu, X.: The
role of Arctic gateways on sea ice and circulation in the Arctic and North
Atlantic Oceans: a sensitivity study with an ocean-sea-ice model, Clim.
Dynam., 57, 2129–2151, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05798-6, 2021. a
Keigwin, L. D., Klotsko, S., Zhao, N., Reilly, B., Giosan, L., and Driscoll,
N. W.: Deglacial floods in the Beaufort Sea preceded Younger Dryas
cooling, Nat. Geosci., 11, 599–604, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0169-6,
2018. a
Kindler, P., Guillevic, M., Baumgartner, M., Schwander, J., Landais, A., and
Leuenberger, M.: Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the
NGRIP ice core, Clim. Past, 10, 887–902,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014, 2014. a
Kleppin, H., Jochum, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shields, C. A., and Yeager, S.:
Stochastic atmospheric forcing as a cause of Greenland climate transitions,
J. Clim., 28, 7741–7764, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00728.1, 2015. a
Klockmann, M., Mikolajewicz, U., and Marotzke, J.: Two AMOC states in
response to decreasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the coupled climate
model MPI-ESM, J. Clim., 31, 7969–7985,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0859.1, 2018. a
Le Corre, M., Gula, J., and Tréguier, A.-M.: Barotropic vorticity balance of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in an eddy-resolving model, Ocean Sci., 16, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-451-2020, 2020. a
Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., He, F., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R., Clark, P. U.,
Carlson, A. E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E., Erickson, D., Jacob, R., Kutzbachand, J., and Cheng, J.:
Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for
Bolling-Allerod Warming, Science, 325, 310–314,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1171041, 2009. a
Löfverström, M. and Lora, J. M.: Abrupt regime shifts in the North
Atlantic atmospheric circulation over the last deglaciation, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 44, 8047–8055, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl074274, 2017. a
Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: Coupled ocean-atmosphere model response to
freshwater input: Comparison to Younger Dryas Event, Paleoceanography, 12,
321–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/96pa03932, 1997. a, b
Marshall, J., Adcroft, A., Hill, C., Perelman, L., and Heisey, C.: A
finite-volume, incompressible Navier Stokes model for studies of the ocean on
parallel computers, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean. [code], 102,
5753–5766, https://doi.org/10.1029/96jc02775, 1997. a
Milne, G. A. and Mitrovica, J. X.: Postglacial sea-level change on a rotating
Earth, Geophys. J. Int., 133, 1–19,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.1998.1331455.x, 1998. a
Mitrovica, J. X. and Milne, G. A.: On post-glacial sea level: I. General
theory, Geophys. J. Int., 154, 253–267,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.2003.01942.x, 2003. a
Nurser, A. J. G. and Bacon, S.: The Rossby radius in the Arctic Ocean, Ocean
Sci., 10, 967–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-967-2014, 2014. a, b, c
Obbink, E. A., Carlson, A. E., and Klinkhammer, G. P.: Eastern North American
freshwater discharge during the Bølling-Allerød warm periods, Geology,
38, 171–174, https://doi.org/10.1130/g30389.1, 2010. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and Brady, E. C.: The sensitivity of the climate response
to the magnitude and location of freshwater forcing: last glacial maximum
experiments, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 56–73,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.07.004, 2010. a
Parsons, J. D., Bush, J. W. M., and Syvitski, J. P. M.: Hyperpycnal plume
formation from riverine outflows with small sediment concentrations,
Sedimentology, 48, 465–478, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3091.2001.00384.x, 2001. a
Peltier, W. R. and Vettoretti, G.: Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted
in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A ”kicked” salt oscillator in
the Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7306–7313,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061413, 2014. a
Peltier, W. R., Vettoretti, G., and Stastna, M.: Atlantic meridional
overturning and climate response to Arctic Ocean freshening, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 33, L06713, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025251, l06713, 2006. a, b, c
Pendleton, S., Condron, A., and Donnelly, J.: The potential of Hudson Valley
glacial floods to drive abrupt climate change, Commun. Earth
Environ., 2, 152, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00228-1, 2021. a
Seidov, D., Baranova, O. K., Biddle, M., Boyer, T. P., Johnson, D. R.,
Mishonov, A. V., Paver, C., and Zweng, M.: Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas
Regional Climatology (NCEI Accession 0112824), NOAA [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5GT5K30,
2016. a
Song, Q., Chelton, D. B., Esbensen, S. K., Thum, N., and O’Neill, L. W.:
Coupling between Sea Surface Temperature and Low-Level Winds in Mesoscale
Numerical Models, J. Clim., 22, 146–164,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2488.1, 2009. a
Stouffer, R. J., Yin, J., Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Spelman, M. J., Hurlin,
W., Weaver, A. J., Eby, M., Flato, G. M., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W. R., Robitaille, D. Y., Sokolov, A., Vettoretti, G., and Weber, S. L.:
Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to
Past and Future Climate Changes, J. Clim., 19, 1365–1387,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3689.1, 2006. a, b
Tange, O.: GNU Parallel – The Command-Line Power Tool, The USENIX
Magazine, 36, 42–47, 2011. a
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W.: Arctic freshwater forcing of the Younger Dryas
cold reversal, Nature, 435, 662–665, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03617, 2005. a, b, c
Tarasov, L., Dyke, A. S., Neal, R. M., and Peltier, W.: A data-calibrated
distribution of deglacial chronologies for the North American ice complex
from glaciological modeling, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 315–316,
30–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.09.010, 2012. a, b, c
Toucanne, S., Zaragosi, S., Bourillet, J., Cremer, M., Eynaud, F., Van
Vliet-Lanoë, B., Penaud, A., Fontanier, C., Turon, J., and Cortijo, E.:
Timing of massive “Fleuve Manche” discharges over the last 350 kyr:
insights into the European ice-sheet oscillations and the European drainage
network from MIS 10 to 2, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 1238–1256,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.01.006, 2009. a
Treguier, A. M., Theetten, S., Chassignet, E. P., Penduff, T., Smith, R.,
Talley, L., Beismann, J. O., and Böning, C.: The North Atlantic Subpolar
Gyre in Four High-Resolution Models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 35,
757–774, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo2720.1, 2005. a
Ullman, D. J., LeGrande, A. N., Carlson, A. E., Anslow, F. S., and Licciardi,
J. M.: Assessing the impact of Laurentide Ice Sheet topography on glacial
climate, Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014,
2014. a
Uppala, S. M., KÅllberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V.
D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A.,
Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Van De Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., Mcnally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. Roy.
Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005. a
Vettoretti, G. and Peltier, W. R.: Thermohaline instability and the formation
of glacial North Atlantic super polynyas at the onset of
Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,
5336–5344, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068891, 2016. a
Weijer, W., Maltrud, M. E., Hecht, M. W., Dijkstra, H. A., and Kliphuis, M. A.:
Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet melting in
a strongly-eddying ocean model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09606,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051611, 2012. a
Yang, J.: On the importance of resolving the western boundary layer in
wind-driven ocean general circulation models, Ocean Model., 5, 357–379,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s1463-5003(02)00058-6, 2003. a
Zhang, X., Prange, M., Merkel, U., and Schulz, M.: Instability of the Atlantic
overturning circulation during Marine Isotope Stage 3, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 41, 4285–4293, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl060321, 2014. a
Zhang, X., Knorr, G., Lohmann, G., and Barker, S.: Abrupt North Atlantic
circulation changes in response to gradual CO2 forcing in a glacial
climate state, Nat. Geosci., 10, 518–524, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2974, 2017. a
Short summary
Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability and climate transitions. We track the routing of glaciologically constrained freshwater volumes in glacial ocean simulations. Our simulations capture important generally not well-represented small-scale features (boundary currents, eddies). We show that the dilution of freshwater as it is transported to key climate regions reduces the freshening to 20 %–60 %.
Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in...
