Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
Clim. Past, 14, 413–440, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Clim. Past, 14, 413–440, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 27 Mar 2018
Research article | 27 Mar 2018
A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016)
Conor Murphy et al.
Related authors
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
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We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
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Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Hadush Meresa, Conor Murphy, Rowan Fealy, and Saeed Golian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-606, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-606, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Emanuel Dutra, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Clément Albergel, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Margarita Choulga, Shaun Harrigan, Hans Hersbach, Brecht Martens, Diego G. Miralles, María Piles, Nemesio J. Rodríguez-Fernández, Ervin Zsoter, Carlo Buontempo, and Jean-Noël Thépaut
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4349–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, 2021
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The creation of ERA5-Land responds to a growing number of applications requiring global land datasets at a resolution higher than traditionally reached. ERA5-Land provides operational, global, and hourly key variables of the water and energy cycles over land surfaces, at 9 km resolution, from 1981 until the present. This work provides evidence of an overall improvement of the water cycle compared to previous reanalyses, whereas the energy cycle variables perform as well as those of ERA5.
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
Short summary
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We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
Short summary
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Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Andrew M. W. Newton and Donal J. Mullan
The Cryosphere, 15, 2211–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2211-2021, 2021
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This paper investigates changes in the dates of ice freeze-up and breakup for 678 Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers from 1931–2005. From 3510 time series, the results show that breakup dates have gradually occurred earlier through time, whilst freeze-up trends have tended to be significantly more variable. These data combined show that the number of annual open-water days has increased through time for most sites, with the magnitude of change at its largest in more recent years.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-41, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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The 1921 drought is the most severe European drought since 1900. Its impacts on society and the physical characteristics are described using newly recovered meteorological observations and a survey from newspapers reports. Finally, the drivers of the drought are analysed. While none of the seasons in 1920 and 1921 tops the scale of having the largest precipitation deficit on record, the conservative nature of drought amplifies the lack of rain in late 1920 into the 1921 spring and summer.
Hadush Meresa, Conor Murphy, Rowan Fealy, and Saeed Golian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-606, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-606, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
LingYun Tang, Neil Macdonald, Heather Sangster, Richard Chiverrell, and Rachel Gaulton
Clim. Past, 16, 1917–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1917-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1917-2020, 2020
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A historical drought series (since 1200 CE) for Shenyang, NE China, shows 20th century droughts comparable in magnitude to recent severe droughts. Drought resilience driven by early 20th century societal/cultural changes reduced loss of life compared with the 1887 and 1891 droughts. A longer temporal analysis from integrated precipitation and historical records shows an earlier onset to droughts. Regional standardised precipitation indices could provide early warnings for drought development.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zoster, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-532, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-532, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skilful in over 93 % of catchments in the short- (1- to 3-days) and medium-range (5- to 15-days) and skilful in over 80 % of catchments out to the extended-range (16- to 30-days). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision making.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Lorenzo Alfieri, Christel Prudhomme, Peter Salamon, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, and Florian Pappenberger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2043–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, 2020
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A new river discharge reanalysis dataset is produced operationally by coupling ECMWF's latest global atmospheric reanalysis, ERA5, with the hydrological modelling component of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis is a global gridded dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.1° at a daily time step and is freely available from 1979 until near real time. The evaluation against observations shows that the GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis was skilful in 86 % of catchments.
Fabio Madonna, Emanuele Tramutola, Souleymane Sy, Federico Serva, Monica Proto, Marco Rosoldi, Simone Gagliardi, Francesco Amato, Fabrizio Marra, Alessandro Fassò, Tom Gardiner, and Peter William Thorne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-183, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In situ measurements, including radiosonde observations, are key for the study of climate. However, observations are more often than not influenced by instrumental effects which must be adjusted prior to their usage.
A novel approach, named RHARM (Radiosounding HARMonization), is able to improve quality of global radiosounding profiles of temperature, humidity and wind. RHARM also estimates the measurement uncertainties. This paper discusses the post-2004 radiosounding measurements only.
Ruud J. Dirksen, Greg E. Bodeker, Peter W. Thorne, Andrea Merlone, Tony Reale, Junhong Wang, Dale F. Hurst, Belay B. Demoz, Tom D. Gardiner, Bruce Ingleby, Michael Sommer, Christoph von Rohden, and Thierry Leblanc
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 9, 337–355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-337-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-337-2020, 2020
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This paper describes GRUAN's strategy for a network-wide change of the operational radiosonde from Vaisala RS92 to RS41. GRUAN's main goal is to provide long-term data records that are free of inhomogeneities due to instrumental effects, which requires proper change management. The approach is to fully characterize differences between the two radiosonde types using laboratory tests, twin soundings, and ancillary data, as well as by drawing from the various fields of expertise available in GRUAN.
Fabio Madonna, Rigel Kivi, Jean-Charles Dupont, Bruce Ingleby, Masatomo Fujiwara, Gonzague Romanens, Miguel Hernandez, Xavier Calbet, Marco Rosoldi, Aldo Giunta, Tomi Karppinen, Masami Iwabuchi, Shunsuke Hoshino, Christoph von Rohden, and Peter William Thorne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3621–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3621-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3621-2020, 2020
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Radiosondes are one of the primary sources of upper-air data for weather and climate monitoring. In the last two decades, technological progress made available automated radiosonde launchers (ARLs), which are able to replace measurements typically performed manually. This work presents a comparative analysis of the technical performance of the ARLs currently available on the market and contribute to define a strategy to achieve the full traceability of the ARL products.
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, David Lun, Julia Hall, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, 2020
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We investigate changes that occurred in small vs. big flood events and in small vs. large catchments across Europe over 5 decades. Annual maximum discharge series between 1960 and 2010 from 2370 gauges in Europe are analysed. Distinctive patterns of flood regime change are identified for large regions across Europe, which depend on flood magnitude and catchment size.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
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We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Simon Noone, Alison Brody, Sasha Brown, Niamh Cantwell, Martha Coleman, Louise Sarsfield Collins, Caoilfhionn Darcy, Dick Dee, Seán Donegan, Rowan Fealy, Padraig Flattery, Rhonda McGovern, Caspar Menkman, Michael Murphy, Christopher Phillips, Martina Roche, and Peter Thorne
Geosci. Commun., 2, 157–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-157-2019, 2019
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The Global Land and Marine Observations Database aims to produce a comprehensive land-based meteorological data archive and inventory. Data sources contained stations in incorrect locations; therefore, we developed the Geo-locate project, enlisting the help of undergraduate geography students. The project has resolved 1926 station issues so far. Due to the success of the Geo-locate project, we encourage other organizations to engage university students to help resolve similar data issues.
Satyaban B. Ratna, Timothy J. Osborn, Manoj Joshi, Bao Yang, and Jianglin Wang
Clim. Past, 15, 1825–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1825-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1825-2019, 2019
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We examine the relationships in models and reconstructions between multidecadal variability of East Asian temperature and two extratropical modes of variability. The relationship between East Asian temperature and Pacific multidecadal variability is largely driven by internal variability, whereas with Atlantic multidecadal variability it is more strongly influenced by the presence or absence of external forcing. We discuss the implications for diagnosing teleconnections from reconstructions.
Katie A. Smith, Lucy J. Barker, Maliko Tanguy, Simon Parry, Shaun Harrigan, Tim P. Legg, Christel Prudhomme, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, 2019
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This paper describes the multi-objective calibration approach used to create a consistent dataset of reconstructed daily river flow data for 303 catchments in the UK over 1891–2015. The modelled data perform well when compared to observations, including in the timing and the classification of drought events. This method and data will allow for long-term studies of flow trends and past extreme events that have not been previously possible, enabling water managers to better plan for the future.
Louise J. Slater, Guillaume Thirel, Shaun Harrigan, Olivier Delaigue, Alexander Hurley, Abdou Khouakhi, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Claudia Vitolo, and Katie Smith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2939–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, 2019
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This paper explores the benefits and advantages of R's usage in hydrology. We provide an overview of a typical hydrological workflow based on reproducible principles and packages for retrieval of hydro-meteorological data, spatial analysis, hydrological modelling, statistics, and the design of static and dynamic visualizations and documents. We discuss some of the challenges that arise when using R in hydrology as well as a roadmap for R’s future within the discipline.
John K. Hillier, Geoffrey R. Saville, Mike J. Smith, Alister J. Scott, Emma K. Raven, Jonathon Gascoigne, Louise J. Slater, Nevil Quinn, Andreas Tsanakas, Claire Souch, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Neil Macdonald, Alice M. Milner, Jennifer Loxton, Rebecca Wilebore, Alexandra Collins, Colin MacKechnie, Jaqui Tweddle, Sarah Moller, MacKenzie Dove, Harry Langford, and Jim Craig
Geosci. Commun., 2, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, 2019
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Worldwide there is intense interest in converting research excellence in universities into commercial success, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how individual scientists' workload and incentive structures may be a key barrier to this. Our work reveals the real challenge posed by a time-constrained university culture, better describes how work with business might fit into an academic job, and gives tips on working together in an
user guidefor scientists and (re)insurers.
Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018
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Floods and droughts cause significant damages and pose risks to lives worldwide. In a climate change context this work identifies hotspots across Great Britain, i.e. places expected to be impacted by an increase in floods and droughts. By the 2080s the western coast of England and Wales and northeastern Scotland would experience more floods in winter and droughts in autumn, with a higher increase in drought hazard, showing a need to adapt water management policies in light of climate change.
Julia Hall and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3883–3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018, 2018
Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Katie Smith, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, 2018
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We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.
Peter W. Thorne, Fabio Madonna, Joerg Schulz, Tim Oakley, Bruce Ingleby, Marco Rosoldi, Emanuele Tramutola, Antti Arola, Matthias Buschmann, Anna C. Mikalsen, Richard Davy, Corinne Voces, Karin Kreher, Martine De Maziere, and Gelsomina Pappalardo
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 6, 453–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-453-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-453-2017, 2017
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The term system-of-systems with respect to observational capabilities is frequently used, but what does it mean and how can it be assessed? Here, we define one possible interpretation of a system-of-systems architecture that is based upon demonstrable aspects of observing capabilities. We develop a set of assessment strands and then apply these to a set of atmospheric observational networks to decide which observations may be suitable for characterising satellite platforms in future work.
Neil Macdonald and Heather Sangster
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1631–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1631-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1631-2017, 2017
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We use historical records to extend current understanding of flood risk, examining past spatial and temporal variability and ask
are the perceived high-magnitude flood events witnessed in recent years really unprecedented?We identify that there are statistically significant relationships between the British flood index and climatic drivers, whereby the largest floods often transcend single catchments affecting regions and that the current flood-rich period is not unprecedented.
Daniel Green, Dapeng Yu, Ian Pattison, Robert Wilby, Lee Bosher, Ramila Patel, Philip Thompson, Keith Trowell, Julia Draycon, Martin Halse, Lili Yang, and Tim Ryley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, 2017
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This paper demonstrates a novel method of evaluating emergency responder accessibility at the city scale during fluvial and surface water flood events of varying magnitudes. Results suggest that surface water flood events within the city of Leicester, UK, may cause more disruption to emergency responders when compared to fluvial flood events of the same magnitude. This study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during flood events.
Simon Parry, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, and Paul J. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, 2016
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This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
Colleen M. Lynch, Iestyn D. Barr, Donal Mullan, and Alastair Ruffell
The Cryosphere, 10, 1809–1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1809-2016, 2016
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Early 21st century changes in the extent of glaciers on Kamchatka were manually mapped from satellite imagery. This revealed 673 glaciers, with a total surface area of 775.7 ± 27.9 km2 in 2000, and 738 glaciers, with a total area of 592.9 ± 20.4 km2 in 2014. This ~24 % decline in glacier surface area is considered to reflect variations in climate (particularly rising summer temperatures), though the response of individual glaciers was likely modulated by other (non-climatic) factors.
Hélène Brogniez, Stephen English, Jean-François Mahfouf, Andreas Behrendt, Wesley Berg, Sid Boukabara, Stefan Alexander Buehler, Philippe Chambon, Antonia Gambacorta, Alan Geer, William Ingram, E. Robert Kursinski, Marco Matricardi, Tatyana A. Odintsova, Vivienne H. Payne, Peter W. Thorne, Mikhail Yu. Tretyakov, and Junhong Wang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2207–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2207-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2207-2016, 2016
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Because a systematic difference between measurements of water vapor performed by space-borne observing instruments in the microwave spectral domain and their numerical modeling was recently highlighted, this work discusses and gives an overview of the various errors and uncertainties associated with each element in the comparison process. Indeed, the knowledge of absolute errors in any observation of the climate system is key, more specifically because we need to detect small changes.
E. Frajka-Williams, C. S. Meinen, W. E. Johns, D. A. Smeed, A. Duchez, A. J. Lawrence, D. A. Cuthbertson, G. D. McCarthy, H. L. Bryden, M. O. Baringer, B. I. Moat, and D. Rayner
Ocean Sci., 12, 481–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-481-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-481-2016, 2016
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The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is predicted by climate models to slow down in this century, resulting in reduced transport of heat northward to mid-latitudes. At 26° N, the Atlantic MOC has been measured continuously for the past decade (2004–2014). In this paper, we discuss the 10-year record of variability, identify the origins of the continued weakening of the circulation, and discuss high-frequency (subannual) compensation between transport components.
J. Armstrong, R. Wilby, and R. J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2511–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, 2015
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A criterion to categorise climate change adaptation frameworks is presented denoting characteristics of three key frameworks established in the literature: scenario–led, decision-centric and vulnerability–led. Applying the criterion, the usability of frameworks is examined in coastal Suffolk. Results indicate adaptation frameworks established in the literature are not utilised in isolation in everyday practice. In reality, hybrid approaches are utilised to overcome aspects of framework weakness.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
J. Crossman, M. N. Futter, P. G. Whitehead, E. Stainsby, H. M. Baulch, L. Jin, S. K. Oni, R. L. Wilby, and P. J. Dillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5125–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, 2014
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We projected potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments to a range of future climates. The highly variable responses in streamflow and total phosphorus (TP) were governed by geology and flow pathways, where larger catchment responses were proportional to greater soil clay content. This suggests clay content might be used as an indicator of catchment sensitivity to climate change, and highlights the need for catchment-specific management plans.
K. M. Willett, R. J. H. Dunn, P. W. Thorne, S. Bell, M. de Podesta, D. E. Parker, P. D. Jones, and C. N. Williams Jr.
Clim. Past, 10, 1983–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, 2014
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We have developed HadISDH, a new gridded global land monthly mean climate montitoring product for humidity and temperature from 1973 to then end of 2013 (updated annually) based entirely on in situ observations. Uncertainty estimates are provided. Over the period of record significant warming and increases in water vapour have taken place. The specific humidity trends have slowed since a peak in 1998 concurrent with decreasing relative humidity from 2000 onwards.
N. Macdonald, T. R. Kjeldsen, I. Prosdocimi, and H. Sangster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2817–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2817-2014, 2014
K. Willett, C. Williams, I. T. Jolliffe, R. Lund, L. V. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, L. A. Vincent, S. Easterbrook, V. K. C. Venema, D. Berry, R. E. Warren, G. Lopardo, R. Auchmann, E. Aguilar, M. J. Menne, C. Gallagher, Z. Hausfather, T. Thorarinsdottir, and P. W. Thorne
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 3, 187–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014, 2014
H. L. Bryden, B. A. King, G. D. McCarthy, and E. L. McDonagh
Ocean Sci., 10, 683–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-683-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-683-2014, 2014
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Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Assimilating monthly precipitation data in a paleoclimate data assimilation framework
Historical droughts in the Qing dynasty (1644–1911) of China
Impact of different estimations of the background-error covariance matrix on climate reconstructions based on data assimilation
Causes of increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century
Changes in the strength and width of the Hadley Circulation since 1871
Ecosystem effects of CO2 concentration: evidence from past climates
Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Jörg Franke, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 16, 1309–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1309-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1309-2020, 2020
Short summary
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Data assimilation is becoming more and more important for past climate reconstructions. The assimilation of monthly resolved precipitation information has not been explored much so far. In this study we analyze the impact of assimilating monthly precipitation amounts and the number of wet days within an existing paleoclimate data assimilation framework. We find increased skill in the reconstruction, suggesting that monthly precipitation can constitute valuable input for future reconstructions.
Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Pao K. Wang, Pi-Ling Pai, Yu-Shiuan Lin, and Chih-Wei Wang
Clim. Past, 16, 911–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-911-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-911-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconstructs drought chronologies of the Qing dynasty (1644–1911) based on Chinese documentary records from the REACHES database. In addition to drought records, ecological and societal records are also retrieved. Tests are performed to cross-check data and time series. Six severe drought periods are identified, and spatial patterns are revealed through multivariable analysis. Drought consequence networks are built highlighting human intervention affecting famine and social turmoil.
Veronika Valler, Jörg Franke, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 15, 1427–1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1427-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the data assimilation approach was adapted to the field of paleoclimatology to reconstruct past climate fields by combining model simulations and observations.
To improve the performance of our paleodata assimilation system, we tested various techniques that are well established in weather forecasting and evaluated their impact on assimilating instrumental data and proxy records (tree rings).
Stefan Brönnimann, Luca Frigerio, Mikhaël Schwander, Marco Rohrer, Peter Stucki, and Jörg Franke
Clim. Past, 15, 1395–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019, 2019
Short summary
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During the 19th century flood frequency was high in central Europe, but it was low in the mid-20th century. This paper tracks these decadal changes in flood frequency for the case of Switzerland from peak discharge data back to precipitation data and daily weather reconstructions. We find an increased frequency in flood-prone weather types during large parts of the 19th century and decreased frequency in the mid-20th century. Sea-surface temperature anomalies can only explain a small part of it.
J. Liu, M. Song, Y. Hu, and X. Ren
Clim. Past, 8, 1169–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1169-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1169-2012, 2012
I. C. Prentice and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 5, 297–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-297-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-297-2009, 2009
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Short summary
This work reconstructs a continuous 305-year rainfall record for Ireland. The series reveals remarkable variability in decadal rainfall – far in excess of the typical period of digitised data. Notably, the series sheds light on exceptionally wet winters in the 1730s and wet summers in the 1750s. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate both locally and across Europe.
This work reconstructs a continuous 305-year rainfall record for Ireland. The series reveals...
