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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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CP | Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
Clim. Past, 14, 139–155, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Clim. Past, 14, 139–155, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 05 Feb 2018

Research article | 05 Feb 2018

Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Hans Visser et al.

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Cited articles

Cahill, N., Rahmstorf, S., and Parnell, A. C.: Change points of global temperature, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 084002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002, 2015. 
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Chandler, R. E. and Scott, E. M.: Statistical Methods for Trend Detection and Analysis, Wiley & Sons Statistics in Practice, West Sussex, UK, 2011. 
Cowtan, K. and Way, R. G.: Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1935–1944, 2014. 
Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Hawkins, E., Jacobs, P., Mann, M. E., Miller, S. K., Steinman, B. A., Stolpe, M. B., and Way, R. G.: Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6527–6534, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064888, 2015. 
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In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global temperature well below 2.0 °C. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets, model choices, choices for pre-industrial and warming definitions have been varied. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in global temperature since pre-industrial time.
In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global temperature well...
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