Climate of the Past
Climate of the Past
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Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
Research article
 | 
05 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 05 Feb 2018

Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Hans Visser, Sönke Dangendorf, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Bram Bregman, and Arthur C. Petersen

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Short summary
In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global temperature well below 2.0 °C. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets, model choices, choices for pre-industrial and warming definitions have been varied. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in global temperature since pre-industrial time.
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