Articles | Volume 11, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jun 2015
Research article |
| 24 Jun 2015
Reconciling reconstructed and simulated features of the winter Pacific/North American pattern in the early 19th century
D. Zanchettin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University of Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta, Dorsoduro 2137, 30123 Venice, Italy
HZG, Helmholtz Center Geesthacht, Max Planck Strasse 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
F. Lehner
Climate and Environmental Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
currently at: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
P. Ortega
LOCEAN-IPSL/UPMC, 4, place Jussieu, Paris, France
C. C. Raible
Climate and Environmental Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
D. Swingedouw
UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC – OASU – Université de Bordeaux, Allee Geoffroy St Hilaire, 33615 Pessac CEDEX, France
Related authors
J. H. Jungclaus, K. Lohmann, and D. Zanchettin
Clim. Past, 10, 2201–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature reconstructions for the Atlantic Water layer in Fram Strait have previously revealed a dramatic warming during the 20th century that is unprecedented in the last 2000 years. Our study presents results from climate model simulations over the last millennium that are able to reproduce such changes and relate them to increased oceanic heat transports to the Arctic and to a re-organization of the North Atlantic ocean circulation caused by global warming.
D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, C. Timmreck, J. Bader, A. Beitsch, H.-F. Graf, D. Notz, and J. H. Jungclaus
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 223–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014, 2014
Onno Doensen, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Woon Mi Kim
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2731, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are crucial systems in the Mediterranean. While extensively studied, their late Holocene variability is poorly understood. Using a climate model spanning 3350-years, we find Mediterranean cyclones show significant multi-decadal variability. Extreme cyclones tend to be more extreme in the central Mediterranean in terms of wind speed. Our work creates a reference baseline to better understand the impact of climate change on Mediterranean cyclones.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Eric Samakinwa, Christoph C. Raible, Ralf Hand, Andrew R. Friedman, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, 2023
Publication in CP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we nudged a stand-alone ocean model MPI-OM to proxy-reconstructed SST. Based on these model simulations, we introduce new estimates of the AMOC variations during the period 1450–1780 through a 10-member ensemble simulation with a novel nudging technique. Our approach reaffirms the known mechanisms of AMOC variability and also improves existing knowledge of the interplay between the AMOC and the NAO during the AMOC's weak and strong phases.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, and Michal Kucera
Clim. Past, 17, 2577–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2577-2021, 2021
Woon Mi Kim, Richard Blender, Michael Sigl, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 2031–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Woon Mi Kim and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 17, 721–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-721-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-721-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The similarity between indirect observations of past climates and information from climate simulations can increase our understanding of past climates. The further we look back, the more uncertain our indirect observations become. Here, we discuss the technical background for such a similarity-based approach to reconstruct past climates for up to the last 15 000 years. We highlight the potential and the problems.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1129–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions try to extract a climate signal from paleo-observations. It is essential to understand their uncertainties. Similarly, comparing climate simulations and paleo-observations requires approaches to address their uncertainties. We describe a simple but flexible noise model for climate proxies for temperature on millennial timescales, which can assist these goals.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Christoph C. Raible, Martina Messmer, Flavio Lehner, Thomas F. Stocker, and Richard Blender
Clim. Past, 14, 1499–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region from 850 to 2100 CE. During the Common Era, cyclone characteristics show pronounced variations mainly caused by internal variability of the coupled climate system. When anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant, a strong increase of extreme cyclone-related precipitation is found due to thermodynamics, though dynamical processes can play an important role during the last millennium.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Climate?
Oliver Bothe
Geosci. Commun. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2018-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2018-11, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Everybody experiences weather and has, likely, a grasp on the notion of different climates. There are discussions on how to define climate, since climate is a policy-relevant topic. Here, I try to clarify why the saying
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you getis an appropriate definition that, however, depends on the definition of what may be seen as
weather.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Martina Messmer, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Low-pressure systems of type Vb may trigger heavy rainfall events over central Europe. This study aims at analysing the relative role of their moisture sources. For this, a set of sensitivity experiments encompassing changes in soil moisture and Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea SSTs are carried out with WRF. The latter moisture source stands out as the most relevant one. Furthermore, the regions most affected by Vb events in the future might be shifted from the Alps to the Balkan Peninsula.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Niklaus Merz, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 12, 2011–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The last (Eemian) interglacial is studied with a global climate model focusing on Greenland and the adjacent high latitudes. A set of model experiments demonstrates the crucial role of changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures for the magnitude of Eemian atmospheric warming. Greenland temperatures are found highly sensitive to sea ice changes in the Nordic Seas but rather insensitive to changes in the Labrador Sea. This behavior has important implications for Greenland ice core signals.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Timothé Bolliet, Patrick Brockmann, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Franck Bassinot, Valérie Daux, Dominique Genty, Amaelle Landais, Marlène Lavrieux, Elisabeth Michel, Pablo Ortega, Camille Risi, Didier M. Roche, Françoise Vimeux, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past, 12, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new database of past climate proxies which aims to facilitate the distribution of data by using a user-friendly interface. Available data from the last 40 years are often fragmented, with lots of different formats, and online libraries are sometimes nonintuitive. We thus built a new dynamic web portal for data browsing, visualizing, and batch downloading of hundreds of datasets presenting a homogeneous format.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, C. C. Raible, and S. Dierer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3349–3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, 2015
S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11461–11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
After volcanic eruptions different radiative and chemical processes take place in the stratosphere which perturb the ozone layer and cause pronounced dynamical changes. In idealized chemistry-climate model simulations the importance of these processes and the modulating role of the climate state is analysed. The chemical effect strongly differs between a preindustrial and present-day climate, but the effect on the dynamics is weak. Radiative processes dominate the dynamics in all climate states.
M. Messmer, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and C. C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, 2015
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
J. H. Jungclaus, K. Lohmann, and D. Zanchettin
Clim. Past, 10, 2201–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature reconstructions for the Atlantic Water layer in Fram Strait have previously revealed a dramatic warming during the 20th century that is unprecedented in the last 2000 years. Our study presents results from climate model simulations over the last millennium that are able to reproduce such changes and relate them to increased oceanic heat transports to the Arctic and to a re-organization of the North Atlantic ocean circulation caused by global warming.
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
N. Merz, A. Born, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 1221–1238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, 2014
D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, C. Timmreck, J. Bader, A. Beitsch, H.-F. Graf, D. Notz, and J. H. Jungclaus
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 223–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
C. C. Raible, F. Lehner, J. F. González-Rouco, and L. Fernández-Donado
Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, and D. Zanchettin
Clim. Past, 9, 2471–2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, 2013
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Teleconnections | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
A series of climate oscillations around 8.2 ka revealed through multi-proxy speleothem records from North China
Western Mediterranean hydro-climatic consequences of Holocene ice-rafted debris (Bond) events
ENSO flavors in a tree-ring δ18O record of Tectona grandis from Indonesia
On the low-frequency component of the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationship: a paired proxy perspective
Pengzhen Duan, Hanying Li, Zhibang Ma, Jingyao Zhao, Xiyu Dong, Ashish Sinha, Peng Hu, Haiwei Zhang, Youfeng Ning, Guangyou Zhu, and Hai Cheng
Clim. Past, 20, 1401–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use multi-proxy speleothem records to reveal a two droughts–one pluvial pattern during 8.5–8.0 ka. The different rebounded rainfall quantity after two droughts causes different behavior of δ13C, suggesting the dominant role of rainfall threshold on the ecosystem. A comparison of different records suggests the prolonged 8.2 ka event is a globally common phenomenon rather than a regional signal. The variability of the AMOC strength is mainly responsible for these climate changes.
Christoph Zielhofer, Anne Köhler, Steffen Mischke, Abdelfattah Benkaddour, Abdeslam Mikdad, and William J. Fletcher
Clim. Past, 15, 463–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Based on a Holocene oxygen stable isotope record from Lake Sidi Ali (Morocco) we correlate Western Mediterranean precipitation anomalies with North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (Bond) events to identify a probable teleconnection between Western Mediterranean winter rains and subpolar North Atlantic cooling phases. Our data show a noticeable similarity between Western Mediterranean winter rain minima and Bond events during the Early Holocene and an opposite pattern during the Late Holocene.
K. Schollaen, C. Karamperidou, P. Krusic, E. Cook, and G. Helle
Clim. Past, 11, 1325–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1325-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1325-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Indonesia’s climate has been linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events that often result in extensive droughts and floods over Indonesia. In this study we investigate ENSO-related signals in a tree-ring δ18O record of Javanese teak. Our results reveal a clear influence of Warm Pool El Niño events on Javanese tree-ring δ18O. These results illustrate the importance of considering ENSO flavors when interpreting palaeoclimate proxy records in the tropics.
M. Berkelhammer, A. Sinha, M. Mudelsee, H. Cheng, K. Yoshimura, and J. Biswas
Clim. Past, 10, 733–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-733-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-733-2014, 2014
Cited articles
Ammann, C. M., Joos, F., Schimel, D. S., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Tomas, R. A.: Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 3713–3718, 2007.
Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014.
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, 1987.
Baxter, S. and Nigam, S.: A subseasonal teleconnection analysis: PNA development and its relationship to the NAO, J. Climate, 26, 6733–674, 2013.
Berdahl, M. and Robock, A.: Northern Hemispheric cryosphere response to volcanic eruptions in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project 3 last millennium simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 359–12,370, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD019914, 2013.
Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., and Zanchettin, D.: Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble, Clim. Past, 9, 2471–2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, 2013.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nature Climate Change, 2, 417–424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
Canty, T., Mascioli, N. R., Smarte, M. D., and Salawitch, R. J.: An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3997–4031, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3997-2013, 2013.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim, J., Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., Mc-Daniel, B. A., Polvani, L., Reichler, T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L., Yoden, S., Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S., and Watanabe, S.: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2494–2505, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50125, 2013.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Stationarity of the tropical pacific teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4927–4932, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50938, 2013.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?, J. Climate, 28, 124–142. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1, 2015.
Cole-Dai, J., Ferris, D., Lanciki, A., Savarino, J., Baroni, M., and Thiemens, M. H.: Cold decade (AD 1810–1819) caused by Tambora (1815) and another (1809) stratospheric volcanic eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040882, 2009.
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason Jr., B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Broennimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, O., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28, 2011.
Cook, E. R., Briffa, K. R., and Jones, P. D.: Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology – a review and comparison of 2 techniques, Int. J. Climatol., 14, 379–402, 1994.
Crowley, T. J.: Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, Science, 289, 270–277, 2000.
Crowley, T. J., Zielinski, G., Vinther, B., Udisti, R., Kreutz, K., Cole-Dai, J., and Castellano, E.: Volcanism and the little ice age, Pages News, 16, 22–23, 2008.
D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., Liepert, B., and Cherubini, P.: On the `Divergence Problem' in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes, Global Planet. Change, 60, 289–305, 2008.
Ding, Y., Carton, J. A., Chepurin, G. A., Stenchikov, G., Robock, A., Sentman, L. T., and Krasting, J. P.: Ocean response to volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 5622–5637, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009780, 2014.
Driscoll, S., Bozzo, A., Gray, L. J., Robock, A., and Stenchikov, G.: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D17105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017607, 2012.
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M.-P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., and Viovy, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, 2013.
Evans, M. N., Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., Thompson, D. M., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology, Quaternary. Sci. Rev., 76, 16–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024, 2013.
Froelicher, T. L., Joos, F., Raible, C. C., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Atmospheric CO2 response to volcanic eruptions: the role of ENSO, season, and variability, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 239–251, 2013.
Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: an improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D23111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008.
Ge, Y. and Gong, G.: North American snow depth and climate teleconnection patterns, J. Climate, 22, 217–233, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2124.1, 2009.
Gong, D.-Y., Mao, R., Shi, P.-J., and Fan, Y.-D.: Correlation between east Asian dust storm frequency and PNA, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14710, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029944, 2007.
Gray, L. J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J. D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K., Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl, G. A., Shindell, D., van Geel, B., and White, W.: Solar influence on climate, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000282, 2010.
Guilyardi, E., Bellenger, H., Collins, M., Ferrett, S., Cai, W., and Wittenberg, A.: First look at ENSO in CMIP5, CLIVAR Exchanges No. 58, Vol. 17, No.1, 2012.
Horel, J. D. and Wallace J. M.: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the southern oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 813–829, 1981.
Hubeny, J. B., King, J. W., and Reddin, M.: Northeast US precipitation variability and North American climate teleconnections interpreted from late Holocene varved sediments, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 17895–17900, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1019301108, 2010.
Jones, P. and Mann, M.: Climate over past millennia, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG2002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004.
Jungclaus, J. H., Lohmann, K., and Zanchettin, D.: Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 10, 2201-2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, 2014.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996.
Kistler, R., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Kalnay, E., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., van den Dool, H., Jenne, R., and Fiorino, M.: The NCEP–NCAR 50–Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD–ROM and Documentation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247–267, 2001.
Kodera, K., Chiba, M., Koide, H., Kitoh, A., and Nikaidou, Y.: Interannual variability of the winter stratosphere and troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 74, 365–382, 1996.
Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Conley, A., Lawrence, P. J., Rosenbloom, N., and Teng, H.: Last millennium climate and its variability in CCSM4, J. Climate, 26, 1085–1111, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00326.1, 2011.
Lehner, F., Raible, C. C., and Stocker, T. F.: Testing the robustness of a precipitation proxy-based North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 45, 85–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.04.025, 2012.
Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook, E. R., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Johnson, N. C., Chen, F., D'Arrigo, R., Fowler, A. M., Gou, X., and Fang, K.: El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries, Nature Climate Change, 3, 822–826, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1936, 2013.
Macias-Fauria, M., Grinsted, A., Helama, S., and Holopainen, J.: Persistence matters: Estimation of the statistical significance of paleoclimatic reconstruction statistics from autocorrelated time series, Dendrochronologia, 30, 179–187, 2012.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., and Ni, F.: Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256–1260, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1177303, 2009.
Misios, S. and Schmidt, H.: Mechanisms Involved in the Amplification of the 11-yr solar cycle signal in the tropical Pacific ocean, J. Climate, 25, 5102–5118, 2012.
Moore, G. W. K., Renfrew, I. A., and Pickart, R. S.: Multidecadal mobility of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Climate, 26, 2453–2466, 2013.
Muthers, S., Anet, J. G., Rozanov, E., Raible, C. C., Peter, T., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Broennimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., and Schmutz, W.: Sensitivity of the winter warming pattern following tropical volcanic eruptions to the background ozone climatology, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 1340–1355, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020138, 2014.
Notaro, M., Wang, W.-C., and Gong, W.: Model and Observational Analysis of the Northeast U.S. Regional Climate and Its Relationship to the PNA and NAO Patterns during Early Winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 3479–3505, 2006.
Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Ulbrich, U.: The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations, Clim. Dynam., 36, 337–354, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0770-x, 2011.
Raible, C. C., Luksch, U., Fraedrich, K., and Voss, R.: North Atlantic decadal regimes in a coupled GCM simulation, Clim. Dynam., 18, 321–330, 2001.
Raible, C. C., Casty, C., Luterbacher, J., Pauling, A., Esper, J., Frank, D. C., Büntgens, U., Roesch, A. C., Wild, M., Tschuck, P., Vidale, P.-L., Schär, C., and Wanner, H.: Climate variability – observations, reconstructions and model simulations, Climatic Change, 79, 9–29, 2006.
Raible, C. C., Lehner, F., González-Rouco, J. F., and Fernández-Donado, L.: Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD, Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014.
Shapiro, A. I., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Schoell, M., Haberreiter, M., Shapiro, A. V., and Nyeki, S.: A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing, Astron. Astrophys., 529, A67, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201016173, 2011.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A. N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., and Yiou, P.: Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014.
Smerdon, J. E.: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments. WIREs, Climatic Change, 3, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.149, 2012.
Stahle, D. W. and Cleaveland, M. K.: Tree-ring reconstructed rainfall over the southeastern USA during the medieval warm period and the little ice age, Climatic Change, 26, 199–212, 1994.
St. George, S.: An overview of tree-ring width records across the Northern Hemisphere, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 95, 132–150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.04.029, 2014.
St. George, S. and Ault, T. R.: The imprint of climate within Northern Hemisphere trees, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 89, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.01.007, 2014.
Starheim, C. C. A., Smith, D. J., and Prowse, T. D.: Dendrohydroclimate reconstructions of July-August runoff for two nival-regime rivers in west central British Columbia, Hydrol. Process., 27, 405–420, 2013.
Stephenson, D. B., Pavan, V., Collins, M., Junge, M. M., and Quadrelli, R.: North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment, Clim. Dynam., 27, 401–420, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0140-x, 2006.
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Niemeier, U., and Timmreck, C.: The influence of eruption season on the global aerosol evolution and radiative impact of tropical volcanic eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 12351–12367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12351-2011, 2011.
Trenberth, K. E. and Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific, Clim. Dynam., 9, 303–319, 1994.
Trouet, V. and Taylor, A. H.: Multi-century variability in the Pacific North American circulation pattern reconstructed from tree rings, Clim. Dynam., 35, 953–963, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0605-9, 2010.
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, A6, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011.
von Storch, H., Zorita, E., and Gonzälez-Rouco, F.: Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation, Int. J. Earth. Sci., 98, 67–82, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-008-0349-5, 2009.
Wahl, E. R. and Smerdon, J. E.: Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051086, 2012.
Wahl, E. R., Diaz, H. F., Smerdon, J. E., and Ammann, C. M.: Late winter temperature response to large tropical volcanic eruptions in temperate Western North America: Relationship to ENSO phases, Global Planet. Change, 122, 238–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.005, 2014.
Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Wang, C., Zhang, L., Lee, S.-K., Wu, L., and Mechoso, C. R.: A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases, Nature Climate Change, 4, 201–205, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2118, 2014.
Wang, T., Otterå, O. H., Gao, Y., and Wang, H.: The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2917–2936, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1373-5, 2012.
Woollings, T., Charlton-Perez, A., Ineson, S., Woollings, T., Charlton-Perez, A., Ineson, S., Marshall, A. G., and Masato, G.: Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D06108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012742, 2010.
Younas, W. and Tang, Y.: PNA predictability at various time scales, J. Climate, 26, 9090–9114, 2013.
Yu, B. and Zwiers, F. W.: The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: A 1,000-year climate modeling study, Clim. Dynam., 29, 837–851, 2007.
Yu, B., Shabbar, A., and Zwiers, F. W.: The Enhanced PNA-Like climate response to Pacific interannual and decadal variability, J. Climate, 20, 5285–5300, 2007.
Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Rubino, A., Lorenz, S., Lohmann, K., Krueger, K., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions, Clim. Dynam., 39, 419–444, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1167-1, 2012.
Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Graf, H. F., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Timmreck, C., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4090–4106, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50229, 2013a.
Zanchettin, D., Rubino, A., Matei, D., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium, Clim. Dynam., 40, 1301–1318, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1361-9, 2013b.
Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Timmreck, C., Bader, J., Beitsch, A., Graf, H.-F., Notz, D., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill), Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 223–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014, 2014.
Zhou, T., Li, B., Man, W., Zhang, L., and Zhang, J.: A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model, Chinese Sci. Bull., 56, 3028–3041, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4641-6, 2011.
Zou, Y., Yu, J.-Y., Lee, T., Lu, M.-M., and Kim, S. T.: CMIP5 model simulations of the impacts of the two types of El Niño on the U.S. winter temperature, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 3076–3092, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021064, 2014.
Short summary
A discrepancy exists between reconstructed and simulated Pacific North American pattern (PNA) features during the early 19th century. Pseudo-reconstructions demonstrate that the available PNA reconstruction is potentially skillful but also potentially affected by a number of sources of uncertainty and deficiencies especially at multidecadal and centennial timescales. Simulations and reconstructions can be reconciled by attributing the reconstructed PNA features to internal variability.
A discrepancy exists between reconstructed and simulated Pacific North American pattern (PNA)...
