Articles | Volume 10, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Mar 2014
Research article |
| 20 Mar 2014
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations
A. Perez-Sanz
Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, (IPE)-CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, 50059 Zaragoza, Spain
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia
P. González-Sampériz
Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, (IPE)-CSIC, Avda Montañana 1005, 50059 Zaragoza, Spain
S. P. Harrison
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia
Centre for Past Climates and Department of Geography & Environmental Sciences, School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Sciences, (SAGES) University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6AB, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Guangqi Li, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-63, 2019
Publication in BG not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Current methods of removing age effect from tree-ring are influenced by sampling biases – older trees are more abundantly sampled for recent decades, when the strongest environmental change happens. New technique of extracting environment-driven signals from tree ring is specifically designed to overcome this bias, drawing on theoretical tree growth. It removes sampling-bias effectively and shows consistent relationships between growth and climates through time and across two conifer species.
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
A. V. Gallego-Sala, D. J. Charman, S. P. Harrison, G. Li, and I. C. Prentice
Clim. Past, 12, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
It has become a well-established paradigm that blanket bog landscapes in the British Isles are a result of forest clearance by early human populations. We provide a novel test of this hypothesis using results from bioclimatic modelling driven by cimate reconstructions compared with a database of peat initiation dates. Both results show similar patterns of peat initiation over time and space. This suggests that climate was the main driver of blanket bog inception and not human disturbance.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
I. Hessler, S. P. Harrison, M. Kucera, C. Waelbroeck, M.-T. Chen, C. Anderson, A. de Vernal, B. Fréchette, A. Cloke-Hayes, G. Leduc, and L. Londeix
Clim. Past, 10, 2237–2252, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, 2014
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and D. Falster
Biogeosciences, 11, 6711–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6711-2014, 2014
M. Martin Calvo, I. C. Prentice, and S. P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 11, 6017–6027, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, 2014
D. I. Kelley, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2411–2433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, 2014
I. Bistinas, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and J. M. C. Pereira
Biogeosciences, 11, 5087–5101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, 2014
E. Journet, Y. Balkanski, and S. P. Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3801–3816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3801-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
D. I. Kelley, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, H. Wang, M. Simard, J. B. Fisher, and K. O. Willis
Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013
F. J. Bragg, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, G. Eglinton, P. N. Foster, F. Rommerskirchen, and J. Rullkötter
Biogeosciences, 10, 2001–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013, 2013
D. J. Charman, D. W. Beilman, M. Blaauw, R. K. Booth, S. Brewer, F. M. Chambers, J. A. Christen, A. Gallego-Sala, S. P. Harrison, P. D. M. Hughes, S. T. Jackson, A. Korhola, D. Mauquoy, F. J. G. Mitchell, I. C. Prentice, M. van der Linden, F. De Vleeschouwer, Z. C. Yu, J. Alm, I. E. Bauer, Y. M. C. Corish, M. Garneau, V. Hohl, Y. Huang, E. Karofeld, G. Le Roux, J. Loisel, R. Moschen, J. E. Nichols, T. M. Nieminen, G. M. MacDonald, N. R. Phadtare, N. Rausch, Ü. Sillasoo, G. T. Swindles, E.-S. Tuittila, L. Ukonmaanaho, M. Väliranta, S. van Bellen, B. van Geel, D. H. Vitt, and Y. Zhao
Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Holocene
Modelling Mediterranean ocean biogeochemistry of the Last Glacial Maximum
Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: assessing the impact of Saharan greening
Dynamic interaction between lakes, climate, and vegetation across northern Africa during the mid-Holocene
Insights into the Australian mid-Holocene climate using downscaled climate models
Simulating dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene Green Sahara period
Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate
Contribution of lakes in sustaining the Sahara greening during the mid-Holocene
Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions
Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project
CHELSA-TraCE21k – high-resolution (1 km) downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the Last Glacial Maximum
Investigating hydroclimatic impacts of the 168–158 BCE volcanic quartet and their relevance to the Nile River basin and Egyptian history
Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)
Mid-Holocene climate of the Tibetan Plateau and hydroclimate in three major river basins based on high-resolution regional climate simulations
Comparison of the green-to-desert Sahara transitions between the Holocene and the last interglacial
Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode
Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa
Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY
The long-standing dilemma of European summer temperatures at the mid-Holocene and other considerations on learning from the past for the future using a regional climate model
Mid-Holocene monsoons in South and Southeast Asia: dynamically downscaled simulations and the influence of the Green Sahara
The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Impact of dust in PMIP-CMIP6 mid-Holocene simulations with the IPSL model
Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data
Water isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESM
Effects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman Empire
Strengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation
Physical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: results from TraCE-21ka simulations
Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations
Abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulation
Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene
Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions
Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene – an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations
Modeling precipitation δ18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales
Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations
Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene
The link between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle
Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Reexamining the barrier effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoon
Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration
Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia
A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum
Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3
Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity
The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
Katharina D. Six, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Gerhard Schmiedl
Clim. Past, 20, 1785–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a physical and biogeochemical ocean model of the Mediterranean Sea to obtain a picture of the Last Glacial Maximum. The shallowing of the Strait of Gibraltar leads to a shallower pycnocline and more efficient nutrient export. Consistent with the sediment data, an increase in organic matter deposition is simulated, although this is based on lower biological production. This unexpected but plausible result resolves the apparent contradiction between planktonic and benthic proxy data.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 20, 1595–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We close the terrestrial water cycle across the Sahara and Sahel by integrating a new endorheic-lake model into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that both dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually contribute to a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is collectively greater than that caused by the interaction between lake and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel.
Andrew L. Lowry and Hamish A. McGowan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1211, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present simulations of the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial climate of Australia using coarse (2°) and finer (0.44°) resolution climate models. These simulations are compared to bioclimatic representation of the palaeoclimate of the mid-Holocene. The finer resolution simulations reduce the bias between the model and the bioclimatic results and highlight the improved value of using finer resolution models to simulate the palaeoclimate.
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Yibo Kang and Haijun Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the climate difference between the mid-Holocene (MH) and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate difference. We think the insignificant difference in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between the MH and PI periods has resulted from the competing effects of the ORBs and the GHGs on the climate.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Michael P. Nobis, Signe Normand, Catherine H. Graham, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 19, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 18, 2401–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the mid-Holocene (MH; a period with warmer summers than today) will help us understand expected future changes. This study analyses the hydroclimates over the headwater regions of three major rivers originating on the TP using dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Model–data comparisons show that the dynamic downscaling significantly improves both the present-day and MH regional climate simulations of the TP.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Amatulli, G., Camia, A., and San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries, Sci. Total Environ., 450–451, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.014, 2013.
Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Brewer, S., Connor, S., Davis, B. A. S., Gajewski, K., Guiot, J., Harrison-Prentice, T. I., Henderson, A., Peyron, O., Prentice, I. C., Scholze, M., Seppä, H., Shuman, B., Sugita, S., Thompson, R. S., Viau, A. E., Williams, J., and Wu, H.: Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis, Clim. Dynam., 37, 775–802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0904-1, 2011.
Bonfils, C., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Guiot, J., and Bartlein, P.: Some mechanisms of mid-Holocene climate change in Europe, inferred from comparing PMIP models to data, Clim. Dynam., 23, 79–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0425-x, 2004.
Bosmans, J. H. C., Drijfhout, S. S., Tuenter, E., Lourens, L. J., Hilgen, F. J., and Weber, S. L.: Monsoonal response to mid-holocene orbital forcing in a high resolution GCM, Clim. Past, 8, 723–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-723-2012, 2012.
Braconnot, P., Joussaume, S., Marti, O., and de Noblet, N.: Synergistic feedbacks from ocean and vegetation on the African monsoon response to mid-Holocene insolation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2481–2484, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL006047, 1999.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417–424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
Braconnot, P., Loutre, M., Dong, B., Joussaume, S., and Valdes, P.: How the simulated change in monsoon at 6 ka BP is related to the simulation of the modern climate: results from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, Clim. Dynam., 19, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0217-5, 2002.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., La\^iné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007a.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high latitudes heat budget, Clim. Past, 3, 279–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-279-2007, 2007b.
Brands, S., Herrera, S., Fernández, J., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: How well do CMIP5 Earth System Models simulate present climate conditions in Europe and Africa?: A performance comparison for the downscaling community, Clim. Dynam., 41, 803–817, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1742-8, 2013.
Brayshaw, D. J., Rambeau, C. M. C., and Smith, S. J.: Changes in Mediterranean climate during the Holocene: Insights from global and regional climate modelling, Holocene, 21, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610377528, 2011.
Brewer, S., Guiot, J., and Torre, F.: Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison, Clim. Past, 3, 499–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-499-2007, 2007.
Broström, A., Coe, M., Harrison, S. P., Gallimore, R., Kutzbach, J. E., Foley, J., Prentice, I. C., and Behling, P.: Land surface feedbacks and palaeomonsoons in northern Africa, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3615–3618, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL02804, 1998.
Camuffo, D., Bertolin, C., Barriendos, M., Dominguez-Castro, F., Cocheo, C., Enzi, S., Sghedoni, M., Valle, A., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M. J., Xoplaki, E., Luterbacher, J., Diodato, N., Maugeri, M. Nunes, M. F., and Rodriguez, R.: 500-years temperatura reconstruction in the Mediterranean Basin by means of documentary data and instrumental observations, Climatic Change, 101, 169–199, 2010.
Carrión, J. S., Fernández, S., González-Sampériz, P., Gil-Romera, G., Badal, E., Carrión-Marco, Y., López-Merino, L., López-Sáez, J. A., Fierro, E., and Burjachs, F.: Expected trends and surprises in the Lateglacial and Holocene vegetation history of the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands, Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol., 162, 458–475, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.revpalbo.2009.12.007, 2010.
Cheddadi, R., Yu, G., Guiot, J., Harrison, S. P., and Prentice, I. C.: The climate of Europe 6000 years ago, Clim. Dynam., 13, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050148, 1997.
Claussen, M. and Gaylor, V.: The greening of the Sahara during the mid-Holocene: results of an interactive atmosphere-biosphere model, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 6, 369–377, 1997.
CLIVAR: Climate in Spain: Past, Present and Future. Regional climate change assessment report, edited by: Pérez, F. F. and Boscolo, R., Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Madrid, 83 pp., 2010.
Coe, M. T. and Bonan, G.: Feedbacks between climate and surface water in northern Africa during the middle Holocene, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 11087–11101, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00343, 1997.
Coe, M. T. and Harrison, S. P.: The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6 ka BP PMIP simulations, Clim. Dynam., 19, 155–166, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0219-3, 2002.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011.
Davis, B. A. S., Brewer, S., Stevenson, A. C., and Guiot, J.: The temperature of Europe during the Holocene reconstructed from pollen data, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 22, 1701–1716, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00173-2, 2003.
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., and Benshila, R.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 9–10, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013.
Dunne, J., Evershed, R. P., Salque, M., Cramp, L., Bruni, S., Ryan, K., Biagetti, S., and di Lernia, S.: First dairying in green Saharan Africa in the fifth millennium bc, Nature, 486, 390–394, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11186, 2012.
European Environment Agency: Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012: an indicator-based report, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 2012.
Forman, S. L., Oglesby, R., Markgraf, V., and Stafford, T.: Paleoclimatic significance of Late Quaternary eolian deposition on the Piedmont and High Plains, Central United States, Global Planet. Change, 11, 35–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(94)00015-6, 1995.
Gaetani, M., Pohl, B., Douville, H., and Fontaine, B.: West African Monsoon influence on the summer Euro-Atlantic circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L09705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047150, 2011.
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C., Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., and Vertenstein, M.: The community climate system model version 4, J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1, 2011.
Giorgi, F.: Climate change hot-spots, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33), L08707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734, 2006.
Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P.: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Global Planet. Change, 63, 90–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005, 2008.
Guiot, J., Boreux, J. J., Braconnot, P., and Torre, F.: Data-model comparison using fuzzy logic in paleoclimatology, Clim. Dynam., 15, 569–581, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050301, 1999.
Haerter, J. O., Hagemann, S., Moseley, C., and Piani, C.: Climate model bias correction and the role of timescales, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1065–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1065-2011, 2011.
Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623–642, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711, 2014.
Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., and Bartlein, P. J.: Influence of insolation and glaciation on atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector: Implications of general circulation model experiments for the Late Quaternary climatology of Europe, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 11, 283–299, https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(92)90002-P, 1992.
Harrison, S. P., Yu, G., and Vassiljev, J.: Climate changes during the Holocene recorded by lakes from Europe, in: Climate Development and History of the North Atlantic Realm, edited by: Wefer, G., Berger, W., Behre, K.-E., and Jansen, E., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 191–204, 2002.
Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Barboni, D., Kohfeld, K. E., Ni, J., and Sutra, J.-P.: Ecophysiological and bioclimatic foundations for a global plant functional classification, J. Veg. Sci., 21, 300–317, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2009.01144.x, 2010.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Brewer, S., Prentice, I. C., Boyd, M., Hessler, I., Holmgren, K., Izumi, K., and Willis, K.: Model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates, Clim. Dynam., 1432–0894, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6, 2013.
Hoelzmann, P., Jolly, D., Harrison, S. P., Laarif, F., Bonnefille, R., and Pachur, H.-J.: Mid-Holocene land-surface conditions in northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula: A data set for the analysis of biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 12, 35–51, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GB02733, 1998.
Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., Perlwitz, J., Quan, X., Zhang, T., and Pegion, P.: On the increased frequency of Mediterranean drought, J. Climate, 25, 2146–2161, 2012.
Ibanez, F.: Sur une nouvelle application de la théorie de l'information à la description des séries chronologiques planctoniques, J. Plankton Res., 4, 619–632, https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/4.3.619, 1982.
Izumi, K., Bartlein, P. J., and Harrison, S. P.: Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1817–1823, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50350, 2013.
Joussaume, S., Taylor, K. E., Braconnot, P., Mitchell, J. F. B., Kutzbach, J. E., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Broccoli, A. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Bonfils, C., Dong, B., Guiot, J., Herterich, K., Hewitt, C. D., Jolly, D., Kim, J. W., Kislov, A., Kitoh, A., Loutre, M. F., Masson, V., McAvaney, B., McFarlane, N., de Noblet, N., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J. Y., Pollard, D., Rind, D., Royer, J. F., Schlesinger, M. E., Syktus, J., Thompson, S., Valdes, P., Vettoretti, G., Webb, R. S., and Wyputta, U.: Monsoon changes for 6000 years ago: Results of 18 simulations from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 859–862, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900126, 1999.
Kelley, C., Ting, M., Seager, R., and Kushnir, Y.: Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053416, 2012.
Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Wang, H., Simard, M., Fisher, J. B., and Willis, K. O.: A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models, Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013.
Kohfeld, K. E. and Harrison, S. P.: How well can we simulate past climates? Evaluating the models using global palaeoenvironmental datasets, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 321–346, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00068-2, 2000.
Kuper, R. and Kröpelin, S.: Climate-Controlled Holocene Occupation in the Sahara: Motor of Africa's Evolution, Science, 313, 803–807, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1130989, 2006.
Kutzbach, J. E., Bonan, G. B., Foley, J. A., and Harrison, S. P.: Vegetation and soils feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon response to orbital forcing in early to middle Holocene, Nature, 384, 623–626, https://doi.org/10.1038/384623a0, 1996.
Levis, S., Bonan, G. B., and Bonfils, C.: Soil feedback drives the mid-Holocene North African monsoon northward in fully coupled CCSM2 simulations with a dynamic vegetation model, Clim. Dynam., 23, 791–802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0477-y, 2004.
Li, G., Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., and Colin Prentice, I.: Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: An analysis of CMIP5 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4018–4024, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50730, 2013.
Lionello, P.: The climate of the Mediterranean Region from the past to the future, Elsevier Science, Burlington, 2012.
Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Casty, C., Wanner, H., Pauling, A., Kuttel, M., Rutishauser, T., Bronnimann, S., Fischer, E., and Fleitmann, D.: Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: a review, in Mediterranean climate variability, Elsevier, Amsterdand, Oxford, 2006.
Magny, M., Miramont, C., and Sivan, O.: Assessment of the impact of climate and anthropogenic factors on Holocene Mediterranean vegetation in Europe on the basis of palaeohydrological records, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 186, 47–59, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-0182(02)00442-X, 2002.
Marzin, C. and Braconnot, P.: Variations of Indian and African monsoons induced by insolation changes at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP, Clim. Dynam., 33, 215–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0538-3, 2009.
Masson, V., Cheddadi, R., Braconnot, P., Joussaume, S., and Texier, D.: Mid-Holocene climate in Europe: what can we infer from PMIP model-data comparisons?, Clim. Dynam., 15, 163–182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050275, 1999.
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Nodas, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z. C.: Global Climate Projections, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Quin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 2007.
Mehta, A. V. and Yang, S.: Precipitation climatology over Mediterranean Basin from ten years of TRMM measurements, Adv. Geosci., 17, 87–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-17-87-2008, 2008.
Monerie, P.-A., Fontaine, B., and Roucou, P.: Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D16111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017510, 2012.
Moreira, F., Viedma, O., Arianoutsou, M., Curt, T., Koutsias, N., Rigolot, E., Barbati, A., Corona, P., Vaz, P., Xanthopoulos, G., Mouillot, F., and Bilgili, E.: Landscape – wildfire interactions in southern Europe: Implications for landscape management, J. Environ. Manage., 92, 2389–2402, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.028, 2011.
Niedermeyer, E. M., Schefuß, E., Sessions, A. L., Mulitza, S., Mollenhauer, G., Schulz, M., and Wefer, G.: Orbital- and millennial-scale changes in the hydrologic cycle and vegetation in the western African Sahel: insights from individual plant wax δD and δ13C, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2996–3005, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.06.039, 2010.
Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G., and Ullerstig, A.: Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations, Tellus, 63, 41–55, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x, 2011.
Phipps, S. J., Rotstayn, L. D., Gordon, H. B., Roberts, J. L., Hirst, A. C., and Budd, W. F.: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-483-2011, 2011.
Prentice, C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D., and Cheddadi, R.: Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka, Clim. Dynam., 12, 185–194, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00211617, 1996.
Prentice, I. C. and Jolly, D.: Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa, J. Biogeogr., 27, 507–519, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00425.x, 2000.
Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Knorr, W., Kattge, J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Schnitzler, K.-G., Wetzel, P., and Jungclaus, J.: Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate–carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?, Clim. Dynam., 29, 565–574, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0247-8, 2007.
Raicich, F., Pinardi, N. and Navarra, A.: Teleconnections between Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall and the Mediterranean, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 173–186, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.862, 2003.
Roberts, N., Stevenson, T., Davis, B., Cheddadi, R., Brewster, S., and Rosen, A.: Holocene climate, environment and cultural change in the circum-Mediterranean region, in: Past Climate Variability through Europe and Africa, vol. 6, edited by: Battarbee, R. W., Gasse, F., and Stickley, C. E., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 343–362, 2004.
Roberts, N., Jones, M. D., Benkaddour, A., Eastwood, W. J., Filippi, M. L., Frogley, M. R., Lamb, H. F., Leng, M. J., Reed, J. M., Stein, M., Stevens, L., Valero-Garcés, B., and Zanchetta, G.: Stable isotope records of Late Quaternary climate and hydrology from Mediterranean lakes: the ISOMED synthesis, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 2426–2441, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.09.005, 2008.
Roberts, N., Eastwood, W. J., Kuzucuoglu, C., Fiorentino, G., and Caracuta, V.: Climatic, vegetation and cultural change in the eastern Mediterranean during the mid-Holocene environmental transition, Holocene, 21, 147–162, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610386819, 2011.
Rodwell, M. J. and Hoskins, B. J.: Subtropical Anticyclones and Summer Monsoons, J. Climate, 14, 3192–3211, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3192:SAASM>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Roehrig, R., Bouniol, D., Guichard, F., Hourdin, F., and Redelsperger, J.-L.: The present and future of the West African monsoon: a process-oriented assessment of CMIP5 simulations along the AMMA transect, J. Climate, 26, 6471–6505, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00505.1, 2013.
Rotstayn, L. D., Collier, M. A., Dix, M. R., Feng, Y., Gordon, H. B., O'Farrell, S. P., Smith, I. N., and Syktus, J.: Improved simulation of Australian climate and ENSO-related rainfall variability in a global climate model with an interactive aerosol treatment, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1067–1088, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1952, 2010.
Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A. N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., and Yiou, P.: Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014a.
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y.-H., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Del Genio, A., de Fainchtein, R., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Matthews, E. E., Menon, S., Miller, R. L., Oinas, V., Oloso, A. O., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Putman, W. M., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Syed, R. A., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M.-S., and Zhang, J.: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 1–44, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014b.
Soler, M., Serra, T., Colomer, J., and Romero, R.: Anomalous rainfall and associated atmospheric circulation in the northeast Spanish Mediterranean area and its relationship to sediment fluidization events in a lake, Water Resour. Res., 43, W01404, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004810, 2007.
Sperber, K. R., Annamalai, H., Kang, I.-S., Kitoh, A., Moise, A., Turner, A., Wang, B., and Zhou, T.: The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century, Clim. Dynam., 41,27–2744, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6, 2013.
Street-Perrot, F. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Marchand, D. S., and Brunner, J. S.: Milankovitch and albedo forcing of the tropical monsoon: a comparison of geological evidence and numerical simulations for 9000 y BP, T. Roy. Soc. Edinb., 81, 407–427, 1990.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Texier, D. de Noblet, N., Harrison, S. P., Haxeltine, A., Joussaume, S., Jolly, D., Laarif, F., Prentice, I. C., and Tarasov, P. E.: Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulation for 6000 years B.P. and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa, Clim. Dynam., 13, 865–882, 1997.
Tierney, J. E., Lewis, S. C., Cook, B. I., LeGrande, A. N., and Schmidt, G. A.: Model, proxy and isotopic perspectives on the East African Humid Period, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 307, 103–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.04.038, 2011.
Vanniere, B., Power, M. J., Roberts, N., Tinner, W., Carrion, J., Magny, M., Bartlein, P., Colombaroli, D., Daniau, A. L., Finsinger, W., Gil-Romera, G., Kaltenrieder, P., Pini, R., Sadori, L., Turner, R., Valsecchi, V., and Vescovi, E.: Circum-Mediterranean fire activity and climate changes during the mid-Holocene environmental transition (8500–2500 cal. BP), Holocene, 21, 53–73, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610384164, 2011.
van Soelen, E., Brooks, G., Larson, R., Sinninghe Damste, J., and Reichart, G.: Mid- to late-Holocene coastal environmental changes in southwest Florida, USA, Holocene, 22, 929–938, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683611434226, 2012.
Vassiljev, J., Harrison, S. P., and Guiot, J.: Simulating the Holocene lake-level record of Lake Bysjön, southern Sweden, Quatern. Res. 49, 62–71, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1997.1942, 1998.
Voldoire, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., y Mélia, D. S., Decharme, B., Cassou, C., Sénési, S., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Alias, A., and Chevallier, M.: The CNRM-CM5, 1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation, Clim. Dynam., 9–10, 2091–2121, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y, 2013.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011.
Watrin, J., Lézine, A.-M., and Hély, C.: Plant migration and plant communities at the time of the "green Sahara", C. R. Geosci., 341, 656–670, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2009.06.007, 2009.
Wohlfahrt, J., Harrison, S. P., and Braconnot, P.: Synergistic feedbacks between ocean and vegetation on mid- and high-latitude climates during the mid-Holocene, Clim. Dynam., 22, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0379-4, 2004.
Wu, H., Guiot, J., Brewer, S., and Guo, Z.: Climatic changes in Eurasia and Africa at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene: reconstruction from pollen data using inverse vegetation modeling, Clim. Dynam., 29, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0231-3, 2007.
Wu, T., Li, W., Ji, J., Xin, X., Li, L., Wang, Z., Zhang, Y., Li, J., Zhang, F., and Wei, M.: Global carbon budgets simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model for the last century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4326–4347, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50320, 2013.
Xoplaki, E., González-Rouco, F., Luter, J., and Wanner, H.: Mediterranean summer air temperature variability and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation and SSTs, Clim. Dynam., 20, 723–739, 2003.
Yukimoto, S., Yoshimura, H,. Hosaka, M., Sakami, T., Tsujino, H., Hirabara, M., Tanaka, T. Y., Deushi, M., Obata, A., Nakano, H., Adachi, Y., Shindo, E., Yabu, S., Ose, T., and Kitoh, A.: Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 1 (MRI-ESM1): Model Description – Technical reports of the meteorological research institute No. 64, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, 88 pp., 2011.
Zhao, Y. and Harrison, S. P.: Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1457–1487, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1193-z, 2011.
