Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
03 Jun 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 03 Jun 2025
| 03 Jun 2025
Mean ocean temperature change and decomposition of the benthic δ18O record over the past 4.5 million years
College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Ulster, Coleraine, BT52 1SA, Northern Ireland, UK
Invited contribution by Peter U. Clark, recipient of the EGU Milutin Milanković Medal 2024.
Jeremy D. Shakun
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA
Yair Rosenthal
Department of Marine and Coastal Science, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
Chenyu Zhu
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Patrick J. Bartlein
Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1251, USA
Jonathan M. Gregory
National Center for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Peter Köhler
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
Zhengyu Liu
Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
Daniel P. Schrag
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Ying Ye, Guy Munhoven, Peter Köhler, Martin Butzin, Judith Hauck, Özgür Gürses, and Christoph Völker
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 977–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many biogeochemistry models assume all material reaching the seafloor is remineralized and returned to solution, which is sufficient for studies on short-term climate change. Under long-term climate change, the carbon storage in sediments slows down carbon cycling and influences feedbacks in the atmosphere–ocean–sediment system. This paper describes the coupling of a sediment model to an ocean biogeochemistry model and presents results under the pre-industrial climate and under CO2 perturbation.
Tal Y. Shutkin, Bryan G. Mark, Nathan D. Stansell, Rolando Cruz Encarnación, Henry H. Brecher, Zhengyu Liu, Bidhyananda Yadav, and Forrest S. Schoessow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3194, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Queshque Glacier, a tropical glacier located in central Peru, has lost about 22.5 million cubic meters of water since 2008. Despite a possible increase in recent snowfall, our research shows that ice loss has been caused by steadily warming temperatures. We also see that the formation of a new lake at the base of the glacier has sped up Queshque’s rate of retreat. We find that changes in glacier water storage are increasingly related to conditions in the Pacific Ocean during the austral summer.
Peter Köhler
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-63, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Using a carbon cycle model I here show that the 405-kyr periodicity found in marine δ13C during the last 5 million years and the offset in atmospheric δ13CO2 between the last and the penultimate glacial maximum are probably related to each other. They can be explained by variations in the δ13C signature of weathered carbonate rock or of volcanically degassed CO2 which vary mainly with obliquity (41-kyr) suggesting that northern hemispheric land ice sheets are their ultimate drivers.
Peyton M. Cavnar, Paul R. Bierman, Jeremy D. Shakun, Lee B. Corbett, Danielle LeBlanc, Gillian L. Galford, and Marc Caffee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2233, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate the Laurentide Ice Sheet’s erosivity before and during the Last Glacial Maximum, we sampled sand deposited by ice in eastern Canada before final deglaciation. We also sampled modern river sand. The 26Al and 10Be measured in glacial deposited sediments suggests that ice remained during some Pleistocene warm periods and was an inefficient eroder. Similar concentrations of 26Al and 10Be in modern sand suggests that most modern river sediment is sourced from glacial deposits.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Lingwei Li, Zhengyu Liu, Jinbo Du, Lingfeng Wan, and Jiuyou Lu
Clim. Past, 20, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Radiocarbon proxies suggest that the deep waters are poorly ventilated during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Here we use two transient simulations with tracers of radiocarbon and ideal age to show that the deep-ocean ventilation age is not much older at the LGM compared to the present day because of the strong glacial Antarctic Bottom Water transport. In contrast, the ventilation age is older during deglaciation mainly due to weakening of Antarctic Bottom Water transport.
Peter Köhler and Stefan Mulitza
Clim. Past, 20, 991–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed 160 kyr long mono-specific stacks of δ13C and of δ18O from the wider tropics from the planktic foraminifera G. ruber and/or T. sacculifer and compared them with carbon cycle simulations using the BICYCLE-SE model. In our stacks and our model-based interpretation, we cannot detect a species-specific isotopic fractionation during hard-shell formation as a function of carbonate chemistry in the surrounding seawater, something which is called a carbonate ion effect.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Andrew G. Jones, Shaun A. Marcott, Andrew L. Gorin, Tori M. Kennedy, Jeremy D. Shakun, Brent M. Goehring, Brian Menounos, Douglas H. Clark, Matias Romero, and Marc W. Caffee
The Cryosphere, 17, 5459–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain glaciers today are fractions of their sizes 140 years ago, but how do these sizes compare to the past 11,000 years? We find that four glaciers in the United States and Canada have reversed a long-term trend of growth and retreated to positions last occupied thousands of years ago. Notably, each glacier occupies a unique position relative to its long-term history. We hypothesize that unequal modern retreat has caused the glaciers to be out of sync relative to their Holocene histories.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving southern high latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 changes and AMOC changes are the primary drivers of the major warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The multi-model analysis highlights the model’s sensitivity of CO2, AMOC to meltwater, and the meltwater history on temperature changes in southern high latitudes.
Luke Skinner, Francois Primeau, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Peter Köhler, and Edouard Bard
Clim. Past, 19, 2177–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Radiocarbon is best known as a dating tool, but it also allows us to track CO2 exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. Using decades of data and novel mapping methods, we have charted the ocean’s average radiocarbon ″age” since the last Ice Age. Combined with climate model simulations, these data quantify the ocean’s role in atmospheric CO2 rise since the last Ice Age while also revealing that Earth likely received far more cosmic radiation during the last Ice Age than hitherto believed.
Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Sandy P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, Elena Marinova, Patrick J. Bartlein, Hans Renssen, and Yurui Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 2093–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examined 71 pollen records (12.3 ka to present) in the eastern Mediterranean, reconstructing climate changes. Over 9000 years, winters gradually warmed due to orbital factors. Summer temperatures peaked at 4.5–5 ka, likely declining because of ice sheets. Moisture increased post-11 kyr, remaining high from 10–6 kyr before a slow decrease. Climate models face challenges in replicating moisture transport.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Aaron M. Barth, Elizabeth G. Ceperley, Claire Vavrus, Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, and Marc W. Caffee
Geochronology, 4, 731–743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deposits left behind by past glacial activity provide insight into the previous size and behavior of glaciers and act as another line of evidence for past climate. Here we present new age control for glacial deposits in the mountains of Montana and Wyoming, United States. While some deposits indicate glacial activity within the last 2000 years, others are shown to be older than previously thought, thus redefining the extent of regional Holocene glaciation.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Robin S. Smith, Steve George, and Jonathan M. Gregory
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5769–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many of the complex computer models used to study the physics of the natural world treat ice sheets as fixed and unchanging, capable of only simple interactions with the rest of the climate. This is partly because it is technically very difficult to usefully do anything more realistic. We have adapted a climate model so it can be joined together with a dynamical model of the Greenland ice sheet. This gives us a powerful tool to help us better understand how ice sheets and the climate interact.
Jonathan M. Gregory, Steven E. George, and Robin S. Smith
The Cryosphere, 14, 4299–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a consequence of global warming could raise global-mean sea level by up to 7 m. We have studied this using a newly developed computer model. With recent climate maintained, sea level would rise by 0.5–2.5 m over many millennia due to Greenland ice loss: the warmer the climate, the greater the sea level rise. Beyond about 3.5 m it would become partially irreversible. In order to avoid this outcome, anthropogenic climate change must be reversed soon enough.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Yongyun Hu, Yan Xia, Zhengyu Liu, Yuchen Wang, Zhengyao Lu, and Tao Wang
Clim. Past, 16, 199–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper shows, using climate simulations, that the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection was distorted or completely broken at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results suggest that ENSO would have little direct impact on North American climates at the LGM.
Patrick J. Bartlein and Sarah L. Shafer
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3889–3913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3889-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3889-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
One of the consequences of changes in the shape of Earth's orbit over time (in addition to pacing glacial–interglacial variations) is changes in the length of months or seasons. The well-known
paleo calendar effectthat results can produce patterns in comparisons of present-day and paleoclimate model simulations that could be mistaken for real climate changes. We illustrate the source of those patterns and describe an approach and set of programs for routinely adjusting for the effect.
Lingfeng Wan, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Weiyi Sun, and Bin Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 1411–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1411-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1411-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The linearity of the climate response is strong on orbital and millennial scales throughout the Holocene but poor on the centennial and decadal scale. The regions of strong linear response on the millennial scale are mostly consistent with the orbital scale, notably western Eurasian, North Africa, the subtropical North Pacific, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. This finding can improve our understanding of the regional climate response to various climate forcings.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Sifan Gu and Zhengyu Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4723–4742, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4723-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4723-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Both biotic 231Pa and 230Th and abiotic 231Pa and 230Th have been implemented in the ocean model of CESM. Under present-day climate forcing, our model is able to simulate water column 231Pa and 230Th activity and the sediment 231Pa-to-230Th activity ratio in good agreement with observations. In HOSING experiments, the biotic and abiotic sediment 231Pa-to-230Th activity ratios behave similarly over large areas of low productivity, but can differ substantially in some regions of high productivity.
David Hassell, Jonathan Gregory, Jon Blower, Bryan N. Lawrence, and Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4619–4646, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4619-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4619-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a formal data model for version 1.6 of the CF (Climate and Forecast) metadata conventions that provide a description of the physical meaning of geoscientific data and their spatial and temporal properties. We describe the CF conventions and how they lead to our CF data model, and compare it other data models for storing data and metadata. We present cf-python version 2.1: a software implementation of the CF data model capable of manipulating any CF-compliant dataset.
Yuxin Zhao, Xiong Deng, Shaoqing Zhang, Zhengyu Liu, Chang Liu, Gabriel Vecchi, Guijun Han, and Xinrong Wu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 681–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-681-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-681-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here with a simple coupled model that simulates typical scale interactions in the climate system, we study the optimal OTWs for the coupled media so that climate signals can be most accurately recovered by CDA. Results show that an optimal OTW determined from the de-correlation timescale provides maximal observational information that best fits the characteristic variability of the coupled medium during the data blending process.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Peter Köhler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jochen Schmitt, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 363–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-363-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-363-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We document our best available data compilation of published ice core records of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and recent measurements on firn air and atmospheric samples covering the time window from 156 000 years BP to the beginning of the year 2016 CE. A smoothing spline method is applied to translate the discrete and irregularly spaced data points into continuous time series. The radiative forcing for each greenhouse gas is computed using well-established, simple formulations.
Sifan Gu, Zhengyu Liu, Alexandra Jahn, Johannes Rempfer, Jiaxu Zhang, and Fortunat Joos
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-40, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is the documentation of the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes in the ocean model of CESM. Our model can simulate both Nd concentration and Nd isotope ratio in good agreement with observations. Our Nd-enabled ocean model makes it possible for direct model-data comparison in paleoceanographic studies, which can help to resolve some uncertainties and controversies in our understanding of past ocean evolution. Therefore, our model provides a useful tool for paleoclimate studies.
Zhengyao Lu, Zhengyu Liu, Guangshan Chen, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-128, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We use complex climate model simulations to study how the intensity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) changed for the last 300 thousand years. We consider external climatic forcings like orbital variations, greenhouse gases and ice-sheets. We find that orbital forcing dominates slow ENSO evolution by modulating the change of the coupled ocean-atmosphere instability, while the effects of GHGs and ice-sheet forcing tend to compensate each other.
Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, Heiko Goelzer, William Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Andrew Shepherd
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol designed to quantify and understand the global sea level that arises due to past, present, and future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with investigating ice sheet–climate feedbacks. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) protocol includes targeted experiments, and a set of output diagnostic related to ice sheets, that are part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Peter Good, Timothy Andrews, Robin Chadwick, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Jonathan M. Gregory, Jason A. Lowe, Nathalie Schaller, and Hideo Shiogama
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4019–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The nonlinMIP model intercomparison project is described. nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: 1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g.
change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to
the present day), or 2) to understand state dependence of climate responses.
Jonathan M. Gregory, Nathaelle Bouttes, Stephen M. Griffies, Helmuth Haak, William J. Hurlin, Johann Jungclaus, Maxwell Kelley, Warren G. Lee, John Marshall, Anastasia Romanou, Oleg A. Saenko, Detlef Stammer, and Michael Winton
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3993–4017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
As a consequence of greenhouse gas emissions, changes in ocean temperature, salinity, circulation and sea level are expected in coming decades. Among the models used for climate projections for the 21st century, there is a large spread in projections of these effects. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate and explain this spread by prescribing a common set of changes in the input of heat, water and wind stress to the ocean in the participating models.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Ryan Kelly, Anne-Laure Daniau, Boris Vannière, Mitchell J. Power, Patrick Bartlein, Philip Higuera, Olivier Blarquez, Simon Brewer, Tim Brücher, Angelica Feurdean, Graciela Gil Romera, Virginia Iglesias, S. Yoshi Maezumi, Brian Magi, Colin J. Courtney Mustaphi, and Tonishtan Zhihai
Biogeosciences, 13, 3225–3244, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3225-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3225-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct spatiotemporal variations in biomass burning since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using the Global Charcoal Database version 3 (including 736 records) and a method to grid the data. LGM to late Holocene burning broadly tracks global and regional climate changes over that interval. Human activities increase fire in the 1800s and then reduce it for most of the 20th century. Burning is now rapidly increasing, particularly in western North America and southeastern Australia.
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
A. Jahn, K. Lindsay, X. Giraud, N. Gruber, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, Z. Liu, and E. C. Brady
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2419–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon isotopes have been added to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). This paper describes the details of how the abiotic 14C tracer and the biotic 13C and 14C tracers were added to the existing ocean model of the CESM. In addition, it shows the first results of the new model features compared to observational data for the 1990s.
P. X. Wang, B. Wang, H. Cheng, J. Fasullo, Z. T. Guo, T. Kiefer, and Z. Y. Liu
Clim. Past, 10, 2007–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2007-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2007-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
All regional monsoons belong to a cohesive global monsoon circulation system, albeit thateach regional subsystem has its own indigenous features. A comprehensive review of global monsoon variability reveals that regional monsoons can vary coherently across a range of timescales, from interannual up to orbital and tectonic. Study of monsoon variability from both global and regional perspectives is imperative and advantageous for integrated understanding of the modern and paleo-monsoon dynamics.
J. M. Marson, I. Wainer, M. M. Mata, and Z. Liu
Clim. Past, 10, 1723–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1723-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1723-2014, 2014
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
G.-J. Han, X.-F. Zhang, S. Zhang, X.-R. Wu, and Z. Liu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 357–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-357-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch, and J. M. Gregory
The Cryosphere, 8, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
R. Schneider, J. Schmitt, P. Köhler, F. Joos, and H. Fischer
Clim. Past, 9, 2507–2523, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2507-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2507-2013, 2013
R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 7, 1459–1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, 2011
P. Köhler, G. Knorr, D. Buiron, A. Lourantou, and J. Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 7, 473–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-473-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-473-2011, 2011
P. Köhler and A. Huth
Biogeosciences, 7, 2531–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2531-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2531-2010, 2010
P. Köhler
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-6-1453-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-6-1453-2010, 2010
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
P. Köhler and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 4, 311–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-311-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-311-2008, 2008
P. Köhler, H. Fischer, J. Schmitt, and G. Munhoven
Biogeosciences, 3, 539–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-3-539-2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-3-539-2006, 2006
P. Köhler and H. Fischer
Clim. Past, 2, 57–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-57-2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-57-2006, 2006
Related subject area
Subject: Ocean Dynamics | Archive: Marine Archives | Timescale: Cenozoic
The Eocene-Oligocene Transition in the Paratethys: Boreal Water Ingression and its Paleoceanographic Implications
Impact of the Late Miocene Cooling on the loss of coral reefs in the Central Indo-Pacific
Nonlinear increase in seawater 87Sr ∕ 86Sr in the Oligocene to early Miocene and implications for climate-sensitive weathering
Limited exchange between the deep Pacific and Atlantic oceans during the warm mid-Pliocene and Marine Isotope Stage M2 “glaciation”
Late Cenozoic sea-surface-temperature evolution of the South Atlantic Ocean
Buoyancy forcing: a key driver of northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability across multiple timescales
Lipid-biomarker-based sea surface temperature record offshore Tasmania over the last 23 million years
Late Neogene nannofossil assemblages as tracers of ocean circulation and paleoproductivity over the NW Australian shelf
Plio-Pleistocene Perth Basin water temperatures and Leeuwin Current dynamics (Indian Ocean) derived from oxygen and clumped-isotope paleothermometry
Temperate Oligocene surface ocean conditions offshore of Cape Adare, Ross Sea, Antarctica
A revised mid-Pliocene composite section centered on the M2 glacial event for ODP Site 846
Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from ∼ 3 million years ago
Late Pliocene Cordilleran Ice Sheet development with warm northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures
Understanding the mechanisms behind high glacial productivity in the southern Brazilian margin
Paleoceanography and ice sheet variability offshore Wilkes Land, Antarctica – Part 3: Insights from Oligocene–Miocene TEX86-based sea surface temperature reconstructions
Paleoceanography and ice sheet variability offshore Wilkes Land, Antarctica – Part 2: Insights from Oligocene–Miocene dinoflagellate cyst assemblages
Variations in Mediterranean–Atlantic exchange across the late Pliocene climate transition
Revisiting the Ceara Rise, equatorial Atlantic Ocean: isotope stratigraphy of ODP Leg 154 from 0 to 5 Ma
Constraints on ocean circulation at the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum from neodymium isotopes
Expansion and diversification of high-latitude radiolarian assemblages in the late Eocene linked to a cooling event in the southwest Pacific
Microfossil evidence for trophic changes during the Eocene–Oligocene transition in the South Atlantic (ODP Site 1263, Walvis Ridge)
A major change in North Atlantic deep water circulation 1.6 million years ago
Contribution of changes in opal productivity and nutrient distribution in the coastal upwelling systems to Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene climate cooling
Productivity response of calcareous nannoplankton to Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2)
Technical note: Late Pliocene age control and composite depths at ODP Site 982, revisited
Pliocene three-dimensional global ocean temperature reconstruction
Mustafa Yücel Kaya, Henk Brinkhuis, Chiara Fioroni, Serdar Görkem Atasoy, Alexis Licht, Dirk Nürnberg, and Taylan Vural
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-479, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) marked global cooling and Antarctic glaciation, but its impact on marginal seas is less known. This study analyzes the Karaburun section in the eastern Paratethys, using biostratigraphy and geochemistry to reveal boreal water ingress due to Arctic-Atlantic gateway closure. Findings highlight the interplay of global and regional climate dynamics in shaping marginal marine environments.
Benjamin F. Petrick, Lars Reuning, Miriam Pfeiffer, Gerald Auer, and Lorenz Schwark
Clim. Past, 21, 405–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is known that coral reefs were absent in the central Indo-Pacific during the Early Pliocene. This study uses a new temperature record based on TEX86H biomarkers from the Coral Sea between 11–2 Ma to show a 2 °C cooling in the central Indo-Pacific during the Late Miocene Cooling (7–5.4 Ma). This cooling triggered changes in terrestrial input, ocean circulation, and temperature. These multiple stressors could have caused reef collapses across the central Indo-Pacific.
Heather M. Stoll, Leopoldo D. Pena, Ivan Hernandez-Almeida, José Guitián, Thomas Tanner, and Heiko Pälike
Clim. Past, 20, 25–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-25-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-25-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Oligocene and early Miocene periods featured dynamic glacial cycles on Antarctica. In this paper, we use Sr isotopes in marine carbonate sediments to document a change in the location and intensity of continental weathering during short periods of very intense Antarctic glaciation. Potentially, the weathering intensity of old continental rocks on Antarctica was reduced during glaciation. We also show improved age models for correlation of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic sediments.
Anna Hauge Braaten, Kim A. Jakob, Sze Ling Ho, Oliver Friedrich, Eirik Vinje Galaasen, Stijn De Schepper, Paul A. Wilson, and Anna Nele Meckler
Clim. Past, 19, 2109–2125, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the context of understanding current global warming, the middle Pliocene (3.3–3.0 million years ago) is an important interval in Earth's history because atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were similar to levels today. We have reconstructed deep-sea temperatures at two different locations for this period, and find that a very different mode of ocean circulation or mixing existed, with important implications for how heat was transported in the deep ocean.
Frida S. Hoem, Adrián López-Quirós, Suzanna van de Lagemaat, Johan Etourneau, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Carlota Escutia, Henk Brinkhuis, Francien Peterse, Francesca Sangiorgi, and Peter K. Bijl
Clim. Past, 19, 1931–1949, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1931-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1931-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present two new sea surface temperature (SST) records in comparison with available SST records to reconstruct South Atlantic paleoceanographic evolution. Our results show a low SST gradient in the Eocene–early Oligocene due to the persistent gyral circulation. A higher SST gradient in the Middle–Late Miocene infers a stronger circumpolar current. The southern South Atlantic was the coldest region in the Southern Ocean and likely the main deep-water formation location in the Middle Miocene.
Bjørg Risebrobakken, Mari F. Jensen, Helene R. Langehaug, Tor Eldevik, Anne Britt Sandø, Camille Li, Andreas Born, Erin Louise McClymont, Ulrich Salzmann, and Stijn De Schepper
Clim. Past, 19, 1101–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the observational period, spatially coherent sea surface temperatures characterize the northern North Atlantic at multidecadal timescales. We show that spatially non-coherent temperature patterns are seen both in further projections and a past warm climate period with a CO2 level comparable to the future low-emission scenario. Buoyancy forcing is shown to be important for northern North Atlantic temperature patterns.
Suning Hou, Foteini Lamprou, Frida S. Hoem, Mohammad Rizky Nanda Hadju, Francesca Sangiorgi, Francien Peterse, and Peter K. Bijl
Clim. Past, 19, 787–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Neogene climate cooling is thought to be accompanied by increased Equator-to-pole temperature gradients, but mid-latitudes are poorly represented. We use biomarkers to reconstruct a 23 Myr continuous sea surface temperature record of the mid-latitude Southern Ocean. We note a profound mid-latitude cooling which narrowed the latitudinal temperature gradient with the northward expansion of subpolar conditions. We surmise that this reflects the strengthening of the ACC and the expansion of sea ice.
Boris-Theofanis Karatsolis and Jorijntje Henderiks
Clim. Past, 19, 765–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-765-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-765-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean circulation around NW Australia plays a key role in regulating the climate in the area and is characterised by seasonal variations in the activity of a major boundary current named the Leeuwin Current. By investigating nannofossils found in sediment cores recovered from the NW Australian shelf, we reconstructed ocean circulation in the warmer-than-present world from 6 to 3.5 Ma, as mirrored by long-term changes in stratification and nutrient availability.
David De Vleeschouwer, Marion Peral, Marta Marchegiano, Angelina Füllberg, Niklas Meinicke, Heiko Pälike, Gerald Auer, Benjamin Petrick, Christophe Snoeck, Steven Goderis, and Philippe Claeys
Clim. Past, 18, 1231–1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Leeuwin Current transports warm water along the western coast of Australia: from the tropics to the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Therewith, the current influences climate in two ways: first, as a moisture source for precipitation in southwestern Australia; second, as a vehicle for Equator-to-pole heat transport. In this study, we study sediment cores along the Leeuwin Current pathway to understand its ocean–climate interactions between 4 and 2 Ma.
Frida S. Hoem, Luis Valero, Dimitris Evangelinos, Carlota Escutia, Bella Duncan, Robert M. McKay, Henk Brinkhuis, Francesca Sangiorgi, and Peter K. Bijl
Clim. Past, 17, 1423–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1423-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present new offshore palaeoceanographic reconstructions for the Oligocene (33.7–24.4 Ma) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica. Our study of dinoflagellate cysts and lipid biomarkers indicates warm-temperate sea surface conditions. We posit that warm surface-ocean conditions near the continental shelf during the Oligocene promoted increased precipitation and heat delivery towards Antarctica that led to dynamic terrestrial ice sheet volumes in the warmer climate state of the Oligocene.
Timothy D. Herbert, Rocio Caballero-Gill, and Joseph B. Novak
Clim. Past, 17, 1385–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1385-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1385-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Pliocene represents a geologically warm period with polar ice restricted to the Antarctic. Nevertheless, variability and ice volume persisted in the Pliocene. This work revisits a classic site on which much of our understanding of Pliocene paleoclimate variability is based and corrects errors in data sets related to ice volume and ocean surface temperature. In particular, it generates an improved representation of an enigmatic glacial episode in Pliocene times (circa 3.3 Ma).
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Maria Luisa Sánchez-Montes, Erin L. McClymont, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Juliane Müller, Ellen A. Cowan, and Coralie Zorzi
Clim. Past, 16, 299–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present new climate reconstructions in SW Alaska from recovered marine sediments in the Gulf of Alaska. We find that glaciers reached the Gulf of Alaska during a cooling climate 2.9 million years ago, and after that the Cordilleran Ice Sheet continued growing during a global drop in atmospheric CO2 levels. Cordilleran Ice Sheet growth could have been supported by an increase in heat supply to the SW Alaska and warm ocean evaporation–mountain precipitation mechanisms.
Rodrigo da Costa Portilho-Ramos, Tainã Marcos Lima Pinho, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Clim. Past, 15, 943–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-943-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-943-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Fossil microorganisms from the last glacial found in marine sediments collected off southern Brazil suggest that more productive austral summer upwelling and more frequent austral winter incursions of nutrient-rich waters from the Plata River boosted regional productivity year-round. While upwelling was more productive due to the higher silicon content from the Southern Ocean, more frequent riverine incursions were modulated by stronger alongshore southwesterly winds.
Julian D. Hartman, Francesca Sangiorgi, Ariadna Salabarnada, Francien Peterse, Alexander J. P. Houben, Stefan Schouten, Henk Brinkhuis, Carlota Escutia, and Peter K. Bijl
Clim. Past, 14, 1275–1297, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1275-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1275-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed sea surface temperatures for the Oligocene and Miocene periods (34–11 Ma) based on archaeal lipids from a site close to the Wilkes Land coast, Antarctica. Our record suggests generally warm to temperate surface waters: on average 17 °C. Based on the lithology, glacial and interglacial temperatures could be distinguished, showing an average 3 °C offset. The long-term temperature trend resembles the benthic δ18O stack, which may have implications for ice volume reconstructions.
Peter K. Bijl, Alexander J. P. Houben, Julian D. Hartman, Jörg Pross, Ariadna Salabarnada, Carlota Escutia, and Francesca Sangiorgi
Clim. Past, 14, 1015–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1015-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1015-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We document Southern Ocean surface ocean conditions and changes therein during the Oligocene and Miocene (34–10 Myr ago). We infer profound long-term and short-term changes in ice-proximal oceanographic conditions: sea surface temperature, nutrient conditions and sea ice. Our results point to warm-temperate, oligotrophic, ice-proximal oceanographic conditions. These distinct oceanographic conditions may explain the high amplitude in inferred Oligocene–Miocene Antarctic ice volume changes.
Ángela García-Gallardo, Patrick Grunert, and Werner E. Piller
Clim. Past, 14, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-339-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We study the variability in Mediterranean–Atlantic exchange, focusing on the surface Atlantic inflow across the mid-Pliocene warm period and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation, still unresolved by previous works. Oxygen isotope gradients between both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar reveal weak inflow during warm periods that turns stronger during severe glacials and the start of a negative feedback between exchange at the Strait and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Roy H. Wilkens, Thomas Westerhold, Anna J. Drury, Mitchell Lyle, Thomas Gorgas, and Jun Tian
Clim. Past, 13, 779–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-779-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-779-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here we introduce the Code for Ocean Drilling Data (CODD), a unified and consistent system for integrating disparate data streams such as micropaleontology, physical properties, core images, geochemistry, and borehole logging. As a test case, data from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 154 (Ceara Rise – western equatorial Atlantic) were assembled into a new regional composite benthic stable isotope record covering the last 5 million years.
April N. Abbott, Brian A. Haley, Aradhna K. Tripati, and Martin Frank
Clim. Past, 12, 837–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-837-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-837-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a brief period when the Earth was in an extreme greenhouse state. We use neodymium isotopes to suggest that during this time deep-ocean circulation was distinct in each basin (North and South Atlanic, Southern, Pacific) with little exchange between. Moreover, the Pacific data show the most variability, suggesting this was a critical region possibly involved in both PETM triggering and remediation.
K. M. Pascher, C. J. Hollis, S. M. Bohaty, G. Cortese, R. M. McKay, H. Seebeck, N. Suzuki, and K. Chiba
Clim. Past, 11, 1599–1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1599-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1599-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Radiolarian taxa with high-latitude affinities are present from at least the middle Eocene in the SW Pacific and become very abundant in the late Eocene at all investigated sites. A short incursion of low-latitude taxa is observed during the MECO and late Eocene warming event at Site 277. Radiolarian abundance, diversity and taxa with high-latitude affinities increase at Site 277 in two steps in the latest Eocene due to climatic cooling and expansion of cold water masses.
M. Bordiga, J. Henderiks, F. Tori, S. Monechi, R. Fenero, A. Legarda-Lisarri, and E. Thomas
Clim. Past, 11, 1249–1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1249-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1249-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Deep-sea sediments at ODP Site 1263 (Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic) show that marine calcifying algae decreased in abundance and size at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, when the Earth transitioned from a greenhouse to a more glaciated and cooler climate. This decreased the food supply for benthic foraminifer communities. The plankton rapidly responded to fast-changing conditions, such as seasonal nutrient availability, or to threshold-levels in pCO2, cooling and ocean circulation.
N. Khélifi and M. Frank
Clim. Past, 10, 1441–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1441-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1441-2014, 2014
J. Etourneau, C. Ehlert, M. Frank, P. Martinez, and R. Schneider
Clim. Past, 8, 1435–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1435-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1435-2012, 2012
M. Dedert, H. M. Stoll, D. Kroon, N. Shimizu, K. Kanamaru, and P. Ziveri
Clim. Past, 8, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-977-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-977-2012, 2012
N. Khélifi, M. Sarnthein, and B. D. A. Naafs
Clim. Past, 8, 79–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-79-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-79-2012, 2012
H. J. Dowsett, M. M. Robinson, and K. M. Foley
Clim. Past, 5, 769–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-769-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-769-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Ahn, S., Khider, D., Lisiecki, L. E., and Lawrence, C. E.: A probabilistic Pliocene–Pleistocene stack of benthic δ18O using a profile hidden Markov model, Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, 2, 1–16, 2017.
Alder, J. R. and Hostetler, S. W.: Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model, Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015.
Baggenstos, D., Haberli, M., Schmitt, J., Shackleton, S. A., Birner, B., Severinghaus, J. P., Kellerhals, T., and Fischer, H.: Earth's radiative imbalance from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 14881–14886, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905447116, 2019.
Barrientos, N., Lear, C. H., Jakobsson, M., Stranne, C., O'Regan, M., Cronin, T. M., Gukov, A. Y., and Coxall, H. K.: Arctic Ocean benthic foraminifera Mg
Bartlein, P.: pjbartlein/MOTvsSST: MOT vs SST regressions (v0.1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14759006, 2025.
Bates, S. L., Siddall, M., and Waelbroeck, C.: Hydrographic variations in deep ocean temperature over the mid-Pleistocene transition, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 88, 147–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.01.020, 2014.
Bereiter, B., Shackleton, S., Baggenstos, D., Kawamura, K., and Severinghaus, J.: Mean global ocean temperatures during the last glacial transition, Nature, 553, 39–44, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25152, 2018.
Bijma, J., Spero, H. J., and Lea, D. W.: Reassessing foraminiferal stable isotope geochemistry: Impact of the oceanic carbonate system (experimental results), in: Use of Proxies in Paleoceanography: Examples from the South Atlantic, edited by: Fischer, G. and Wefer, G., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 489–512, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58646-0_20, 1999.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417–424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
Bronselaer, B. and Zanna, L.: Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes, Nature, 584, 227–233, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2573-5, 2020.
Cheng, L. J., von Schuckmann, K., Abraham, J. P., Trenberth, K. E., Mann, M. E., Zanna, L., England, M. H., Zika, J. D., Fasullo, J. T., Yu, Y. Q., Pan, Y. Y., Zhu, J., News, E. R., Bronselaer, B., and Lin, X. P.: Past and future ocean warming, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 3, 776–794, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00345-1, 2022.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1137–1216, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2013.
Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., Levermann, A., Milne, G. A., Pfister, P. L., Santer, B. D., Schrag, D. P., Solomon, S., Stocker, T. F., Strauss, B. H., Weaver, A. J., Winkelmann, R., Archer, D., Bard, E., Goldner, A., Lambeck, K., Pierrehumbert, R. T., and Plattner, G. K.: Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 360–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2923, 2016.
Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Rosenthal, Y., Köhler, P., and Bartlein, P. J.: Global and regional temperature change over the last 4.5 million years, Science, 383, 884–890, 2024.
Cleveland, W. S., Grosse, E., and Shyu, W. M.: Local regression models, in: Statistical Models in S, edited by: Chambers, J. M. and Hastie, T. J., Chapman and Hall, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203738535, 1992.
Cramer, B. S., Miller, K. G., Barrett, P. J., and Wright, J. D.: Late Cretaceous-Neogene trends in deep ocean temperature and continental ice volume: Reconciling records of benthic foraminiferal geochemistry (delta O-18 and Mg
de Boer, B., Lourens, L. J., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Persistent 400,000-year variability of Antarctic ice volume and the carbon cycle is revealed throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, Nat. Commun., 5, 2999, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms3999, 2014.
Dumitru, O. A., Austermann, J., Polyak, V. J., Fornos, J. J., Asmerom, Y., Gines, J., Gines, A., and Onac, B. P.: Constraints on global mean sea level during Pliocene warmth, Nature, 574, 233–236, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1543-2, 2019.
Dumitru, O. A., Austermann, J., Polyak, V. J., Fornos, J. J., Asmerom, Y., Gines, J., Gines, A., and Onac, B. P.: Sea-level stands from the Western Mediterranean over the past 6.5 million years, Sci. Rep.-UK, 11, 6681, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80025-6, 2021.
Dwyer, G. S. and Chandler, M. A.: Mid-Pliocene sea level and continental ice volume based on coupled benthic Mg
Elderfield, H., Ferretti, P., Greaves, M., Crowhurst, S., McCave, I. N., Hodell, D., and Piotrowski, A. M.: Evolution of ocean temperature and ice volume through the mid-Pleistocene climate transition, Science, 337, 704–709, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1221294, 2012.
Emiliani, C.: Temperatures of Pacific bottom waters and polar superficial waters during the Tertiary, Science, 119, 853–855, 1954.
Evans, D., Brugger, J., Inglis, G. N., and Valdes, P.: The temperature of the deep ocean Is a robust proxy for global mean surface temperature during the Cenozoic, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 39, e2023PA004788, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023PA004788, 2024.
Farmer, J. R., Honisch, B., Haynes, L. L., Kroon, D., Jung, S., Ford, H. L., Raymo, M. E., Jaume-Segui, M., Bell, D. B., Goldstein, S. L., Pena, L. D., Yehudai, M., and Kim, J.: Deep Atlantic Ocean carbon storage and the rise of 100,000-year glacial cycles, Nat. Geosci., 12, 355–360, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0334-6, 2019.
Ford, H. L. and Raymo, M. E.: Regional and global signals in seawater δ18O records across the mid-Pleistocene transition, Geology, 48, 113–117, https://doi.org/10.1130/g46546.1, 2020.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere, and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, L., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambriidge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021.
Galbraith, E. and de Lavergne, C.: Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages, Clim. Dynam., 52, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4157-8, 2019.
Gasson, E., DeConto, R. M., and Pollard, D.: Modeling the oxygen isotope composition of the Antarctic ice sheet and its significance to Pliocene sea level, Geology, 44, 827–830, https://doi.org/10.1130/g38104.1, 2016.
Goudsmit-Harzevoort, B., Lansu, A., Baatsen, M. L. J., von der Heydt, A. S., de Winter, N. J., Zhang, Y. R., Abe-Ouchi, A., de Boer, A., Chan, W. L., Donnadieu, Y., Hutchinson, D. K., Knorr, G., Ladant, J. B., Morozova, P., Niezgodzki, I., Steinig, S., Tripati, A., Zhang, Z. S., Zhu, J., and Ziegler, M.: The Relationship Between the Global Mean Deep-Sea and Surface Temperature During the Early Eocene, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 38, e2022PA004532, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022pa004532, 2023.
Gray, W. R., de Lavergne, C., Wills, R. J. C., Menviel, L., Spence, P., Holzer, M., Kageyama, M., and Michel, E.: Poleward Shift in the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds Synchronous With the Deglacial Rise in CO2, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 38, e2023PA004666, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023pa004666, 2023.
Gregory, J. M.: Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change, Clim. Dynam., 16, 501–515, 2000.
Gregory, J. M., Stouffer, R. J., Raper, S. C. B., Stott, P. A., and Rayner, N. A.: An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity, J. Climate, 15, 3117–3121, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3117:Aobeot>2.0.Co;2, 2002.
Gregory, J. M., Bouttes, N., Griffies, S. M., Haak, H., Hurlin, W. J., Jungclaus, J., Kelley, M., Lee, W. G., Marshall, J., Romanou, A., Saenko, O. A., Stammer, D., and Winton, M.: The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3993–4017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, 2016.
Gregory, J. M., Bloch-Johnson, J., Couldrey, M. P., Exarchou, E., Griffies, S. M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Newsom, E., Saenko, O. A., Suzuki, T., Wu, Q. R., Urakawa, S., and Zanna, L.: A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake, Clim. Dynam., 62, 1669–1713, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06989-z, 2024.
Gu, S., Liu, Z., Oppo, D. W., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Jahn, A., Zhang, J., and Wu, L.: Assessing the potential capability of reconstructing glacial Atlantic water masses and AMOC using multiple proxies in CESM, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 541, 116294, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116294, 2020.
Haeberli, M., Baggenstos, D., Schmitt, J., Grimmer, M., Michel, A., Kellerhals, T., and Fischer, H.: Snapshots of mean ocean temperature over the last 700 000 years using noble gases in the EPICA Dome C ice core, Clim. Past, 17, 843–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-843-2021, 2021.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Russell, G., and Kharecha, P.: Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 371, 20120294, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0294, 2013.
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Simons, L., Nazarenko, L. S., Sangha, I., Kharecha, P., Zachos, J. C., von Schuckmann, K., Loeb, N. G., Osman, M. B., Jin, Q., Tselioudis, G., Jeong, E., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., Russell, G., Cao, J., and Li, J.: Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change, 3, kgad008, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008, 2023.
Hastie, T. J.: Generalized additive models, in: Statistical Models in S, edited by: Chambers, J. M., and Hastie, T. J., Chapman and Hall, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203738535, 1992.
Haywood, A. M., Tindall, J. C., Dowsett, H. J., Dolan, A. M., Foley, K. M., Hunter, S. J., Hill, D. J., Chan, W.-L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Stepanek, C., Lohmann, G., Chandan, D., Peltier, W. R., Tan, N., Contoux, C., Ramstein, G., Li, X., Zhang, Z., Guo, C., Nisancioglu, K. H., Zhang, Q., Li, Q., Kamae, Y., Chandler, M. A., Sohl, L. E., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Feng, R., Brady, E. C., von der Heydt, A. S., Baatsen, M. L. J., and Lunt, D. J.: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity, Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020.
He, C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Zhu, C., Tomas, R., Clark, P. U., Zhu, J., Jahn, A., Gu, S., Zhang, J., Nusbaumer, J., Noone, D., Cheng, H., Wang, Y., Yan, M., and Bao, Y.: Hydroclimate footprint of pan-Asian monsoon water isotope during the last deglaciation, Science Advances, 7, eabe2611, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe2611, 2021.
He, F.: Simulating transient climate evolution of the last deglaciation with CCSM3, The University of Wisconsin – Madison, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Feng-He-27/publication/263618839_Simulating_transient_climate_ evolution_of_the_last_deglaciation_with_CCSM3/links/ 0c96053b5fc619188f000000/Simulating-transient-climate-evolution-of-the-last-deglaciation-with-CCSM3.pdf (last access: 1 January 2025), 2011.
Heuzé, C., Heywood, K. J., Stevens, D. P., and Ridley, J. K.: Changes in global ocean bottom properties and volume transports in CMIP5 models under climate change scenarios, J. Climate, 28, 2917–2944, 2015.
Hodell, D. A. and Venz-Curtis, K. A.: Late Neogene history of deepwater ventilation in the Southern Ocean, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 7, Q09001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gc001211, 2006.
Jakob, K. A., Wilson, P. A., Pross, J., Ezard, T. H. G., Fiebig, J., Repschlager, J., and Friedrich, O.: A new sea-level record for the Neogene/Quaternary boundary reveals transition to a more stable East Antarctic Ice Sheet, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 30980–30987, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004209117, 2020.
Johnson, G. C.: Quantifying Antarctic Bottom Water and North Atlantic Deep Water volumes, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C05027, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004477, 2008.
Johnson, G. C., Sadman Mahmud, A. K. M., Macdonald, A. M., and Twining, B. S.: Antarctic Bottom Water warming, freshening, and contraction in the eastern Bellingshausen Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL109937, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109937, 2024.
Khatiwala, S., Primeau, F., and Holzer, M.: Ventilation of the deep ocean constrained with tracer observations and implications for radiocarbon estimates of ideal mean age, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 325–326, 116–125, 2012.
Kim, S. T. and O'Neil, J. R.: Equilibrium and nonequilibrium oxygen isotope effects in synthetic carbonates, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 61, 3461–3475, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-7037(97)00169-5, 1997.
Köhler, P.: Atmospheric CO2 concentration based on boron isotopes versus simulations of the global carbon cycle during the Plio-Pleistocene, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 38, e2022PA004439, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004439, 2023.
Köhler, P. and Bintanja, R.: The carbon cycle during the Mid Pleistocene Transition: the Southern Ocean Decoupling Hypothesis, Clim. Past, 4, 311–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-311-2008, 2008.
Köhler, P. and Mulitza, S.: No detectable influence of the carbonate ion effect on changes in stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) of shallow dwelling planktic foraminifera over the past 160 kyr, Clim. Past, 20, 991–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-991-2024, 2024.
Kuhlbrodt, T. and Gregory, J. M.: Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18608, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052952, 2012.
Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y., and Sambridge, M.: Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 15296–15303, 2014.
Lang, D. C., Bailey, I., Wilson, P. A., Chalk, T. B., Foster, G. L., and Gutjahr, M.: Incursions of southern-sourced water into the deep North Atlantic during late Pliocene glacial intensification, Nat. Geosci., 9, 375–379, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2688, 2016.
Lear, C. H., Rosenthal, Y., and Wright, J. D.: The closing of a seaway: ocean water masses and global climate change, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 210, 425–436, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0012-821x(03)00164-x, 2003.
Lear, C. H., Billups, K., Rickaby, R. E. M., Diester-Haass, L., Mawbey, E. M., and Sosdian, S. M.: Breathing more deeply: Deep ocean carbon storage during the mid-Pleistocene climate transition, Geology, 44, 1035–1038, https://doi.org/10.1130/g38636.1, 2016.
Li, C., von Storch, J.-S., and Marotzke, J.: Deep-ocean heat uptake and equilibrium climate response, Clim. Dynam., 40, 1071–1086, 2013.
Li, Q., England, M. H., Hogg, A. M., Rintoul, S. R., and Morrison, A. K.: Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater, Nature, 615, 841–847, 2023.
Lisiecki, L. E.: Atlantic overturning responses to obliquity and precession over the last 3 Myr, Paleoceanography, 29, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013pa002505, 2014.
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, 2004PA001071, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001071, 2005.
Marchitto, T. M., Curry, W. B., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Bryan, S. P., Cobb, K. M., and Lund, D. C.: Improved oxygen isotope temperature calibrations for cosmopolitan benthic foraminifera, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 130, 1–11, 2014.
Martin, P. A., Lea, D. W., Rosenthal, Y., Papenfuss, T. P., and Sarnthein, M.: Late Quaternary Deep-Sea Temperatures Inferred From Benthic Foraminiferal Magnesium, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 198, 193–209, 2002.
Meckler, A. N., Sexton, P. F., Piasecki, A. M., Leutert, T. J., Marquardt, J., Ziegler, M., Agterhuis, T., Lourens, L. J., Rae, J. W. B., Barnet, J., Tripati, A., and Bernasconi, S. M.: Cenozoic evolution of deep ocean temperature from clumped isotope thermometry, Science, 377, 86–90, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abk0604, 2022.
Miller, K. G., Wright, J. D., Browning, J. V., Kulpecz, A., Kominz, M., Naish, T. R., Cramer, B. S., Rosenthal, Y., Peltier, W. R., and Sosdian, S.: High tide of the warm Pliocene: Implications of global sea level for Antarctic deglaciation, Geology, 40, 407–410, https://doi.org/10.1130/g32869.1, 2012.
Miller, K. G., Browning, J. V., Schmelz, W. J., Kopp, R. E., Mountain, G. S., and Wright, J. D.: Cenozoic sea-level and cryospheric evolution from deep-sea geochemical and continental margin records, Science Advances, 6, eaaz1346, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz1346, 2020.
Muggeo, V. M. R.: Estimating regression models with unknown break-points, Stat. Med., 22, 3055–3071, 2003.
Nederbragt, A. J.: The effect of seawater carbonate chemistry on the stable isotope composition of Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi and other Cibicidoides species, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 38, e2023PA004667, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023PA004667, 2023.
Newsom, E., Zanna, L., and Gregory, J.: Background pycnocline depth constrains future ocean heat uptake ffficiency, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105673, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl105673, 2023.
Pena, L. D. and Goldstein, S. L.: Thermohaline circulation crisis and impacts during the mid-Pleistocene transition, Science, 345, 318–322, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249770, 2014.
Pöppelmeier, F., Baggenstos, D., Grimmer, M., Liu, Z. J., Schmitt, J., Fischer, H., and Stocker, T. F.: The Effect of Past Saturation Changes on Noble Gas Reconstructions of Mean Ocean Temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102055, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102055, 2023.
Purkey, S. G., Johnson, G. C., Talley, L. D., Sloyan, B. M., Wijffels, S. E., Smethie, W., Mecking, S., and Katsumata, K.: Unabated bottom water warming and freshening in the South Pacific Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 124, 1778–1794, 2019.
R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, The R Foundation, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 5 January 2025), 2024.
Raymo, M. E., Kozdon, R., Evans, D., Lisiecki, L., and Ford, H. L.: The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ18O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions, Earth-Sci. Rev., 177, 291–302, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022, 2018.
Rohling, E. J., Yu, J. M., Heslop, D., Foster, G. L., Opdyke, B., and Roberts, A. P.: Sea level and deep-sea temperature reconstructions suggest quasi-stable states and critical transitions over the past 40 million years, Science Advances, 7, eabf5326, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf5326, 2021.
Rohling, E. J., Foster, G. L., Gernon, T. M., Grant, K. M., Heslop, D., Hibbert, F. D., Roberts, A. P., and Yu, J.: Comparison and synthesis of sea-level and deep-sea temperature variations over the past 40 million years, Rev. Geophys., 60, e2022RG000775, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022RG000775, 2022.
Rohling, E. J., Gernon, T. M., Heslop, D., Reichart, G. J., Roberts, A. P., and Yu, J.: Reconciling the Apparent Discrepancy Between Cenozoic Deep-Sea Temperatures From Proxies and From Benthic Oxygen Isotope Deconvolution, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 39, e2024PA004872, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024pa004872, 2024.
Rosenthal, Y., Bova, S., and Zhou, X. L.: A user guide for choosing planktic foraminiferal Mg
Rugenstein, M., Bloch-Johnson, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Andrews, T., Beyerle, U., Cao, L., Chadha, T., Danabasoglu, G., Dufresne, J. L., Duan, L., Foujols, M. A., Frolicher, T., Geoffroy, O., Gregory, J., Knutti, R., Li, C., Marzocchi, A., Mauritsen, T., Menary, M., Moyer, E., Nazarenko, L., Paynter, D., Saint-Martin, D., Schmidt, G. A., Yamamoto, A., and Yang, S. T.: LongRunMIP: Motivation and Design for a Large Collection of Millennial-Length AOGCM Simulations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 2551–2570, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-19-0068.1, 2019.
Rugenstein, M. A. A., Sedlácek, J., and Knutti, R.: Nonlinearities in patterns of long-term ocean warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3380–3388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068041, 2016.
Saenko, O., Gregory, J. M., Griffies, S. M., Couldrey, M. P., and Dias, F. B.: Contribution of ocean physics and dynamics at different scales to heat uptaken in low-resolution AOGCMs, J. Climate, 34, 2017–2035, 2021.
Schrag, D. P.: Effects of diagenesis on the isotopic record of late Paleogene tropical sea surface temperatures, Chem. Geol., 161, 215–224, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0009-2541(99)00088-1, 1999.
Schrag, D. P., Hampt, G., and Murray, D. W.: Pore fluid constraints on the temperature and oxygen isotopic composition of the glacial ocean, Science, 272, 1930–1932, 1996.
Schrag, D. P., Adkins, J. F., McIntyre, K., Alexander, J. L., Hodell, D. A., Charles, C. D., and McManus, J. F.: The oxygen isotopic composition of seawater during the Last Glacial Maximum, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 331–342, 2002.
Seltzer, A. M., Davidson, P. W., Shackleton, S. A., Nicholson, D. P., and Khatiwala, S.: Global ocean cooling of 2.3 °C during the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL108866, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108866, 2024.
Shackleton, S., Bereiter, B., Baggenstos, D., Bauska, T. K., Brook, E. J., Marcott, S. A., and Severinghaus, J. P.: Is the noble gas-based rate of ocean warming during the Younger Dryas overestimated?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 5928–5936, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082971, 2019.
Shackleton, S., Baggenstos, D., Menking, J. A., Dyonisius, M. N., Bereiter, B., Bauska, T. K., Rhodes, R. H., Brook, E. J., Petrenko, V. V., McConnell, J. R., Kellerhals, T., Haberli, M., Schmitt, J., Fischer, H., and Severinghaus, J. P.: Global ocean heat content in the Last Interglacial, Nat. Geosci., 13, 77–81, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0498-0, 2020.
Shackleton, S., Menking, J. A., Brook, E., Buizert, C., Dyonisius, M. N., Petrenko, V. V., Baggenstos, D., and Severinghaus, J. P.: Evolution of mean ocean temperature in Marine Isotope Stage 4, Clim. Past, 17, 2273–2289, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2273-2021, 2021.
Shackleton, S., Seltzer, A., Baggenstos, D., and Lisiecki, L.: Benthic δ18O records Earth's energy imbalance, Nat. Geosci., 16, 797–802, 2023.
Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., He, F., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Liu, Z. Y., Otto-Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A., and Bard, E.: Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation, Nature, 484, 49–55, 2012.
Shakun, J. D., Lea, D. W., Lisiecki, L. E., and Raymo, M. E.: An 800 kyr record of global surface ocean delta O-18 and implications for ice volume-temperature coupling, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 426, 58–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.05.042, 2015.
Siddall, M., Honisch, B., Waelbroeck, C., and Huybers, P.: Changes in deep Pacific temperature during the mid-Pleistocene transition and Quaternary, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 170–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.05.011, 2010.
Sosdian, S. and Rosenthal, Y.: Deep-sea temperature and ice volume changes across the Pliocene-Pleistocene climate transitions, Science, 325, 306–310, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1169938, 2009.
Sosdian, S. M., Rosenthal, Y., and Toggweiler, J. R.: Deep Atlantic carbonate ion and CaCO3 compensation during the Ice Ages, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 33, 546–562, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017pa003312, 2018.
Spero, H. J., Bijma, J., Lea, D. W., and Bemis, B. E.: Effect of seawater carbonate concentration on foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotopes, Nature, 390, 497–500, 1997.
Spratt, R. M. and Lisiecki, L. E.: A Late Pleistocene sea level stack, Clim. Past, 12, 1079–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1079-2016, 2016.
Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., King, J., Malevich, S. B., Hakim, G. J., and Poulsen, C. J.: Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited, Nature, 584, 569–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2617-x, 2020.
Uemura, R., Motoyama, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Jouzel, J., Kawamura, K., Goto-Azuma, K., Fujita, S., Kuramoto, T., Hirabayashi, M., Miyake, T., Ohno, H., Fujita, K., Abe-Ouchi, A., Iizuka, Y., Horikawa, S., Igarashi, M., Suzuki, K., Suzuki, T., and Fujii, Y.: Asynchrony between Antarctic temperature and CO2 associated with obliquity over the past 720,000 years, Nat. Commun., 9, 961, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03328-3, 2018.
von Schuckmann, K., Minière, A., Gues, F., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Kirchengast, G., Adusumilli, S., Straneo, F., Ablain, M., Allan, R. P., Barker, P. M., Beltrami, H., Blazquez, A., Boyer, T., Cheng, L., Church, J., Desbruyeres, D., Dolman, H., Domingues, C. M., García-García, A., Giglio, D., Gilson, J. E., Gorfer, M., Haimberger, L., Hakuba, M. Z., Hendricks, S., Hosoda, S., Johnson, G. C., Killick, R., King, B., Kolodziejczyk, N., Korosov, A., Krinner, G., Kuusela, M., Landerer, F. W., Langer, M., Lavergne, T., Lawrence, I., Li, Y., Lyman, J., Marti, F., Marzeion, B., Mayer, M., MacDougall, A. H., McDougall, T., Monselesan, D. P., Nitzbon, J., Otosaka, I., Peng, J., Purkey, S., Roemmich, D., Sato, K., Sato, K., Savita, A., Schweiger, A., Shepherd, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Simons, L., Slater, D. A., Slater, T., Steiner, A. K., Suga, T., Szekely, T., Thiery, W., Timmermans, M.-L., Vanderkelen, I., Wjiffels, S. E., Wu, T., and Zemp, M.: Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023.
Waelbroeck, C., Labeyrie, L., Michel, E., Duplessy, J. C., McManus, J. F., Lambeck, K., Balbon, E., and Labracherie, M.: Sea-level and deep water temperature changes derived from benthic foraminifera isotopic records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 295–305, 2002.
Weiffenbach, J. E., Dijkstra, H. A., von der Heydt, A. S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chan, W.-L., Chandan, D., Feng, R., Haywood, A. M., Hunter, S. J., Li, X., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Stepanek, C., Tan, N., Tindall, J. C., and Zhang, Z.: Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2, Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024.
Westerhold, T., Marwan, N., Drury, A. J., Liebrand, D., Agnini, C., Anagnostou, E., Barnet, J. S. K., Bohaty, S. M., De Vleeschouwer, D., Florindo, F., Frederichs, T., Hodell, D. A., Holbourn, A. E., Kroon, D., Lauretano, V., Littler, K., Lourens, L. J., Lyle, M., Palike, H., Rohl, U., Tian, J., Wilkens, R. H., Wilson, P. A., and Zachos, J. C.: An astronomically dated record of Earth's climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years, Science, 369, 1383–1387, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba6853, 2020.
Winnick, M. J. and Caves, J. K.: Oxygen isotope mass-balance constraints on Pliocene sea level and East Antarctic Ice Sheet stability, Geology, 43, 879–882, https://doi.org/10.1130/g36999.1, 2015.
Woodard, S. C., Rosenthal, Y., Miller, K. G., Wright, J. D., Chiu, B. K., and Lawrence, K. T.: Antarctic role in Northern Hemisphere glaciation, Science, 346, 847–851, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1255586, 2014.
Zachos, J., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E., and Billups, K.: Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present, Science, 292, 686–693, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1059412, 2001.
Zanna, L., Khatiwala, S., Gregory, J. M., Ison, J., and Heimbach, P.: Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1126–1131, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808838115, 2019.
Zeebe, R. E.: An explanation of the effect of seawater carbonate concentration on foraminiferal oxygen isotopes, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 63, 2001–2007, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-7037(99)00091-5, 1999.
Zhou, S., Meijers, A. J. S., Meredith, M. P., Abrahamsen, E. P., Holland, P. R., Silvano, A., Sallée, J. B., and Østerhus, S.: Slowdown of Antarctic bottom water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice change, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 701–709, 2023.
Zhu, C., Sanchez, S., Liu, Z., Clark, P. U., He, C., Wan, L., Lu, J., Zhu, C., Li, L., Zhang, S., and Cheng, L.: Enhanced ocean heat storage efficiency during the last deglaciation, Science Advances, 10, eadp55156, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2b2b, 2024.
Zhu, C. Y., Liu, Z. Y., Zhang, S. Q., and Wu, L. X.: Global oceanic overturning circulation forced by the competition between greenhouse gases and continental ice Sheets during the last deglaciation, J. Climate, 34, 7555–7570, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0125.1, 2021.
Download
- Article
(14559 KB) - Full-text XML
Co-editor-in-chief
This Milankovic Medalist paper represents a tour de force, addressing a complex yet crucial question: the evolution of global climate over the past 4.5 million years. This paper makes a significant contribution to the geoscience community by providing a self-consistent decomposition of global mean benthic δ18O into its temperature and seawater (ice volume) components.
This approach is consistent with independent estimates of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) and sea level constraints.The analysis incorporates numerous high-resolution records spanning this period and highlights two distinct climatic regimes:
• Before 1.5 million years ago, a warm period characterized by smaller-amplitude ice sheet and sea level cycles, primarily driven by obliquity timescales.
• Following the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), i.e. after 1 million years, a well-documented increase in the amplitude of glacial cycles became evident.
The central finding of the study is that, during the MPT, there was a shift in ocean heat storage efficiency (HSE). Prior to this transition, HSE remained low and constant, whereas after the MPT, it doubled and stabilized at a higher value. This finding is supported by the observation of subtle differential changes in global mean SST and mean ocean temperature (MOT), which appear to be time-dependent. These observations suggest a potential fundamental shift in oceanic heat storage dynamics.
This Milankovic Medalist paper represents a tour de force, addressing a complex yet crucial...
Short summary
We reconstruct changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) over the last 4.5 Myr. We find that the ratio of ΔMOT to changes in global mean sea surface temperature was around 0.5 before the Middle Pleistocene transition but was 1 thereafter. We subtract our ΔMOT reconstruction from the global δ18O record to derive the δ18O of seawater. Finally, we develop a theoretical understanding of why the ratio of ΔMOT / ΔGMSST changed over the Plio-Pleistocene.
We reconstruct changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) over the last 4.5 Myr. We find that the...
Special issue