Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2031-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2031-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
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06 Nov 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 06 Nov 2025
| 06 Nov 2025
Holocene land cover change in North America: continental trends, regional drivers, and implications for vegetation–atmosphere feedbacks
Andria Dawson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Computing, Calgary, AB, T3E6K6, Canada
Department of Biology, Mount Royal University, Calgary, AB, T3E6K6, Canada
John W. Williams
Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
Marie-José Gaillard
Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, E 39231 Kalmar, Sweden
Simon J. Goring
Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
Behnaz Pirzamanbein
Department of Statistics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, 220 07 Lund, Sweden
Johan Lindstrom
Division of Mathematical Statistics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University, 221 00 Lund, Sweden
R. Scott Anderson
School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Andrea Brunelle
Geography Department, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
David Foster
Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA 01366, USA
Konrad Gajewski
Département de Géographie, Environnement et Géomatique, Université d'Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N50, Canada
Daniel G. Gavin
Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA
Terri Lacourse
Department of Biology and Centre for Forest Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
Thomas A. Minckley
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
Wyatt Oswald
Marlboro Institute for Liberal Arts and Interdisciplinary Studies, Emerson College, Boston, MA 02116 , USA
Bryan Shuman
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
Cathy Whitlock
Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
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Erica Jaakkola, Johan Lindström, Julia Kelly, Natascha Kljun, and Thomas Holst
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5083, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Wildfires are increasing in boreal forests, but little is known about how they affect natural emissions of volatile compounds from forest soils. We measured these emissions during the first four years after a major wildfire in Sweden. Emission recovery depended strongly on fire severity, stand age, and post-fire management. Early emissions were largely driven by litter from damaged trees, highlighting how wildfire and forest management can influence atmospheric chemistry and climate feedbacks.
Jalisha Theanutti Kallingal, Marko Scholze, Paul Anthony Miller, Johan Lindström, Janne Rinne, Mika Aurela, Patrik Vestin, and Per Weslien
Biogeosciences, 22, 4061–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4061-2025, 2025
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We explored the possibilities of a Bayesian-based data assimilation algorithm to improve the wetland CH4 flux estimates by a dynamic vegetation model. By assimilating CH4 observations from 14 wetland sites, we calibrated model parameters and estimated large-scale annual emissions from northern wetlands. Our findings indicate that this approach leads to more reliable estimates of CH4 dynamics, which will improve our understanding of the climate change feedback from wetland CH4 emissions.
Ann E. Morey, Mark D. Shapley, Daniel G. Gavin, Alan R. Nelson, and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4523–4561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, 2024
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Disturbance events from historical sediments from a small lake in Oregon were evaluated to determine if Cascadia megathrust earthquakes are uniquely identifiable. Geochemical provenance data identify two likely Cascadia earthquakes, one from 1700 CE and the other from 1873 CE. A crustal earthquake deposit and flood deposits were also uniquely identified, suggesting that small Cascadia lakes are good recorders of megathrust earthquakes and other disturbances.
Annika V. Herbert, Simon G. Haberle, Suzette G. A. Flantua, Ondrej Mottl, Jessica L. Blois, John W. Williams, Adrian George, and Geoff S. Hope
Clim. Past, 20, 2473–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2473-2024, 2024
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The Indo-Pacific Pollen Database is a large collection of pollen samples from across the Indo-Pacific region, with most samples coming from Australia. This is a valuable collection that can be used to analyse vegetation dynamics going back thousands of years. It is now being fully shared via Neotoma for the first time, opening up many exciting new avenues of research. This paper presents key aspects of this database, including geographical distribution, age control and deposition times.
Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 20, 1703–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1703-2024, 2024
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A gap in understanding climate variation exists at centennial to millennial scales, particularly for warm climates. Such variations challenge detection. They exceed direct observation but are geologically short. Centennial to millennial variations that may have influenced North America were examined over the past 7 kyr. Significant patterns were detected from fossil pollen and sedimentary lake level changes, indicating ecological, hydrological, and likely human significance.
Jalisha T. Kallingal, Johan Lindström, Paul A. Miller, Janne Rinne, Maarit Raivonen, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2299–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, 2024
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By unlocking the mysteries of CH4 emissions from wetlands, our work improved the accuracy of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model using Bayesian statistics. Via assimilation of long-term real data from a wetland, we significantly enhanced CH4 emission predictions. This advancement helps us better understand wetland contributions to atmospheric CH4, which are crucial for addressing climate change. Our method offers a promising tool for refining global climate models and guiding conservation efforts
Jalisha Theanutti Kallingal, Marko Scholze, Paul Anthony Miller, Johan Lindström, Janne Rinne, Mika Aurela, Patrik Vestin, and Per Weslien
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-373, 2024
Preprint archived
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Our study employs an Adaptive MCMC algorithm (GRaB-AM) to constrain process parameters in the wetlands emission module of the LPJ-GUESS model, using CH4 EC flux observations from 14 diverse wetlands. We aim to derive a single set of parameters capable of representing the diversity of northern wetlands. By reducing uncertainties in model parameters and improving simulation accuracy, our research contributes to more reliable projections of future wetland CH4 emissions and their climate impact.
Anne Dallmeyer, Anneli Poska, Laurent Marquer, Andrea Seim, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1531–1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1531-2023, 2023
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We compare past tree cover changes in Europe during the last 8000 years simulated with two dynamic global vegetation models and inferred from pollen data. The major model–data mismatch is related to the much earlier onset of anthropogenic deforestation in the data compared to the prescribed land use in the models. We show that land use, and not climate, is the main driver of the Holocene forest decline. The model–data agreement depends on the model tuning, challenging model–data comparisons.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
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The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Furong Li, Marie-José Gaillard, Xianyong Cao, Ulrike Herzschuh, Shinya Sugita, Jian Ni, Yan Zhao, Chengbang An, Xiaozhong Huang, Yu Li, Hongyan Liu, Aizhi Sun, and Yifeng Yao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 95–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-95-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study is present the first gridded and temporally continuous quantitative plant-cover reconstruction for temperate and northern subtropical China over the last 12 millennia. The reconstructions are based on 94 pollen records and include estimates for 27 plant taxa, 10 plant functional types, and 3 land-cover types. The dataset is suitable for palaeoclimate modelling and the evaluation of simulated past vegetation cover and anthropogenic land-cover change from models.
David T. Liefert and Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 18, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, 2022
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A large drought potentially occurred roughly 4200 years ago, but its impacts and significance are unclear. We find new evidence in carbonate oxygen isotopes from a mountain lake in southeastern Wyoming, southern Rocky Mountains, of an abrupt reduction in effective moisture (precipitation–evaporation) or snowpack from approximately 4200–4000 years ago. The drought's prominence among a growing number of sites in the North American interior suggests it was a regionally substantial climate event.
Esther Githumbi, Ralph Fyfe, Marie-Jose Gaillard, Anna-Kari Trondman, Florence Mazier, Anne-Birgitte Nielsen, Anneli Poska, Shinya Sugita, Jessie Woodbridge, Julien Azuara, Angelica Feurdean, Roxana Grindean, Vincent Lebreton, Laurent Marquer, Nathalie Nebout-Combourieu, Miglė Stančikaitė, Ioan Tanţău, Spassimir Tonkov, Lyudmila Shumilovskikh, and LandClimII data contributors
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1581–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1581-2022, 2022
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Reconstruction of past land cover is necessary for the study of past climate–land cover interactions and the evaluation of climate models and land-use scenarios. We used 1128 available pollen records from across Europe covering the last 11 700 years in the REVEALS model to calculate percentage cover and associated standard errors for 31 taxa, 12 plant functional types and 3 land-cover types. REVEALS results are reliant on the quality of the input datasets.
Sandy P. Harrison, Roberto Villegas-Diaz, Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Daniel Gallagher, David Kesner, Paul Lincoln, Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Daniele Colombaroli, Adam Ali, Chéïma Barhoumi, Yves Bergeron, Tatiana Blyakharchuk, Přemysl Bobek, Richard Bradshaw, Jennifer L. Clear, Sambor Czerwiński, Anne-Laure Daniau, John Dodson, Kevin J. Edwards, Mary E. Edwards, Angelica Feurdean, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Mariusz Gałka, Michelle Garneau, Thomas Giesecke, Graciela Gil Romera, Martin P. Girardin, Dana Hoefer, Kangyou Huang, Jun Inoue, Eva Jamrichová, Nauris Jasiunas, Wenying Jiang, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Niina Kuosmanen, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Martin Lavoie, Fang Li, Jianyong Li, Olga Lisitsyna, José Antonio López-Sáez, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Gabriel Magnan, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Alekss Maksims, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Jenn Marlon, Scott Mensing, Joanna Miroslaw-Grabowska, Wyatt Oswald, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Sanna Piilo, Anneli Poska, Xiaoguang Qin, Cécile C. Remy, Pierre J. H. Richard, Sakari Salonen, Naoko Sasaki, Hieke Schneider, William Shotyk, Migle Stancikaite, Dace Šteinberga, Normunds Stivrins, Hikaru Takahara, Zhihai Tan, Liva Trasune, Charles E. Umbanhowar, Minna Väliranta, Jüri Vassiljev, Xiayun Xiao, Qinghai Xu, Xin Xu, Edyta Zawisza, Yan Zhao, Zheng Zhou, and Jordan Paillard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, 2022
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We provide a new global data set of charcoal preserved in sediments that can be used to examine how fire regimes have changed during past millennia and to investigate what caused these changes. The individual records have been standardised, and new age models have been constructed to allow better comparison across sites. The data set contains 1681 records from 1477 sites worldwide.
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Editorial statement
The paper presents a state-of-the-are Holocene reconstruction of North American vegetation shifts, including a discussion of drivers and potential feedbacks on climate.
The paper presents a state-of-the-are Holocene reconstruction of North American vegetation...
Short summary
Holocene vegetation–atmosphere interactions provide insight into intensifying land use impacts and the Holocene Conundrum: a mismatch between data- and model-inferred temperature. Using pollen records and statistical modeling, we reconstruct Holocene land cover for North America. We determine patterns and magnitudes of land cover changes across scales. We attribute land cover changes to ecological, climatic, and human drivers. These reconstructions provide benchmarks for Earth system models.
Holocene vegetation–atmosphere interactions provide insight into intensifying land use impacts...
