Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 05 Nov 2024
| 05 Nov 2024
Estimating biases during detection of leads and lags between climate elements across Dansgaard–Oeschger events
Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, 43 St Andrew's Street, Cambridge, CB2 1DB, United Kingdom
Louise C. Sime
Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Francesco Muschitiello
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, 43 St Andrew's Street, Cambridge, CB2 1DB, United Kingdom
Keno Riechers
Research Domain IV – Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany
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Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 419–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, 2025
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Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Allegra N. LeGrande, Erin L. McClymont, Agatha de Boer, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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We used climate models to study how stable water isotopes in ice cores changed in the Arctic and Antarctica during the warm Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Whilst standard simulations underestimate polar warming, when the effects of ice sheet meltwater from the preceding deglaciation are included, there is a much better match with observations. Findings suggest that previous estimates of LIG Arctic warming were too high. Understanding these past polar changes can help improve future predictions.
Sentia Goursaud Oger, Louise C. Sime, and Max Holloway
Clim. Past, 20, 2539–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, 2024
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Antarctic ice cores provide information about past temperatures. Here, we run new climate model simulations, including stable water isotopes for the historical period. Across one-third of Antarctica, there is no strong connection between isotopes and temperature and a weak connection for most of the rest of Antarctica. This disconnect between isotopes and temperature is largely driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice. Our results are helpful for temperature reconstructions from ice core records.
Francesco Muschitiello and Marco Antonio Aquino-Lopez
Clim. Past, 20, 1415–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024, 2024
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The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland ice-core chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U–Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
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Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
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Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023
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Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, abrupt warming episodes followed by a gradual-cooling phase during mid-glacial periods. There is uncertainty whether current climate models can effectively represent the processes that cause D–O events. Here, we propose a Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS3) baseline protocol which is intended to provide modelling groups investigating D–O oscillations with a common framework.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
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It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
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We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
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Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
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In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
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Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
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Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Matthew Chadwick, Claire S. Allen, Louise C. Sime, Xavier Crosta, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 18, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, 2022
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Algae preserved in marine sediments have allowed us to reconstruct how much winter sea ice was present around Antarctica during a past time period (130 000 years ago) when the climate was warmer than today. The patterns of sea-ice increase and decrease vary between different parts of the Southern Ocean. The Pacific sector has a largely stable sea-ice extent, whereas the amount of sea ice in the Atlantic sector is much more variable with bigger decreases and increases than other regions.
Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, and Maria-Vittoria Guarino
The Cryosphere, 15, 5099–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, 2021
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The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
Francesco Muschitiello
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-116, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U-Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
Keno Riechers and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 17, 1751–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, 2021
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Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts comprising significant warming over Greenland, retreat of North Atlantic sea ice, and atmospheric reorganization. Statistical analysis of multi-proxy records reveals no systematic lead or lag between the transitions of proxies that represent different climatic subsystems, and hence no evidence for a potential trigger of these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events can be found.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
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We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Francesco Muschitiello, Matt O'Regan, Jannik Martens, Gabriel West, Örjan Gustafsson, and Martin Jakobsson
Geochronology, 2, 81–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-81-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-81-2020, 2020
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In this study we present a new marine chronology of the last ~30 000 years for a sediment core retrieved from the central Arctic Ocean. Our new chronology reveals substantially faster sedimentation rates during the end of the last glacial cycle, the Last Glacial Maximum, and deglaciation than previously reported, thus implying a substantial re-interpretation of paleoceanographic reconstructions from this sector of the Arctic Ocean.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Rosalyn Hatcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, 2020
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When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. Here, we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial.
Gabriel West, Darrell S. Kaufman, Francesco Muschitiello, Matthias Forwick, Jens Matthiessen, Jutta Wollenburg, and Matt O'Regan
Geochronology, 1, 53–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-53-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-53-2019, 2019
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We report amino acid racemization analyses of foraminifera from well-dated sediment cores from the Yermak Plateau, Arctic Ocean. Sample ages are compared with model predictions, revealing that the rates of racemization generally conform to a global compilation of racemization rates at deep-sea sites. These results highlight the need for further studies to test and explain the origin of the purportedly high rate of racemization indicated by previous analyses of central Arctic sediments.
Clint M. Miller, Gerald R. Dickens, Martin Jakobsson, Carina Johansson, Andrey Koshurnikov, Matt O'Regan, Francesco Muschitiello, Christian Stranne, and Carl-Magnus Mörth
Biogeosciences, 14, 2929–2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2929-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2929-2017, 2017
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Continental slopes north of the East Siberian Sea are assumed to hold large amounts of methane. We present pore water chemistry from the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. These are among the first results generated from this vast climatically sensitive region, and they imply that abundant methane, including gas hydrates, do not characterize the East Siberian Sea slope or rise. This contradicts previous modeling and discussions, which due to the lack of data are almost entirely based assumption.
Christof Pearce, Aron Varhelyi, Stefan Wastegård, Francesco Muschitiello, Natalia Barrientos, Matt O'Regan, Thomas M. Cronin, Laura Gemery, Igor Semiletov, Jan Backman, and Martin Jakobsson
Clim. Past, 13, 303–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-303-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-303-2017, 2017
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The eruption of the Alaskan Aniakchak volcano of 3.6 thousand years ago was one of the largest Holocene eruptions worldwide. The resulting ash is found in several Alaskan sites and as far as Newfoundland and Greenland. In this study, we found ash from the Aniakchak eruption in a marine sediment core from the western Chukchi Sea in the Arctic Ocean. Combined with radiocarbon dates on mollusks, the volcanic age marker is used to calculate the marine radiocarbon reservoir age at that time.
Louise C. Sime, Dominic Hodgson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Claire Allen, Bianca Perren, Stephen Roberts, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 12, 2241–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, 2016
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Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could explain large observed changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However there is considerable disagreement in modelled deglacial-warming jet shifts. Here multi-model output is used to show that expansion of sea ice during the glacial period likely caused a slight poleward shift and intensification in the westerly wind jet. Issues with model representation of the winds caused much of the previous disagreement.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Continuous synchronization of the Greenland ice-core and U–Th timescales using probabilistic inversion
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions
Synchronizing ice-core and U ∕ Th timescales in the Last Glacial Maximum using Hulu Cave 14C and new 10Be measurements from Greenland and Antarctica
Assessing the statistical uniqueness of the Younger Dryas: a robust multivariate analysis
The SP19 chronology for the South Pole Ice Core – Part 2: gas chronology, Δage, and smoothing of atmospheric records
Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives
Climatic and insolation control on the high-resolution total air content in the NGRIP ice core
Variability of sulfate signal in ice core records based on five replicate cores
Simulating ice core 10Be on the glacial–interglacial timescale
Evidence for a three-phase sequence during Heinrich Stadial 4 using a multiproxy approach based on Greenland ice core records
Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system
An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores
Duration of Greenland Stadial 22 and ice-gas Δage from counting of annual layers in Greenland NGRIP ice core
Past surface temperatures at the NorthGRIP drill site from the difference in firn diffusion of water isotopes
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data
Francesco Muschitiello and Marco Antonio Aquino-Lopez
Clim. Past, 20, 1415–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024, 2024
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The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland ice-core chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U–Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
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In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
Giulia Sinnl, Florian Adolphi, Marcus Christl, Kees C. Welten, Thomas Woodruff, Marc Caffee, Anders Svensson, Raimund Muscheler, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Clim. Past, 19, 1153–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1153-2023, 2023
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The record of past climate is preserved by several archives from different regions, such as ice cores from Greenland or Antarctica or speleothems from caves such as the Hulu Cave in China. In this study, these archives are aligned by taking advantage of the globally synchronous production of cosmogenic radionuclides. This produces a new perspective on the global climate in the period between 20 000 and 25 000 years ago.
Henry Nye and Alan Condron
Clim. Past, 17, 1409–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, 2021
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This paper analyzes the uniqueness of a paleoclimate event entitled the Bølling–Allerød Younger Dryas (BA/YD) through a statistical lens in order to better understand its relation to other events similar to it. Furthermore, we implement a novel statistical method entitled PCOut in order to measure the BA/YD's various elements of uniqueness in existing paleoclimate records. We suggest future use of this method for paleoclimate research that aims to assess uniqueness across multiple criteria.
Jenna A. Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Jon S. Edwards, Todd A. Sowers, Emma C. Kahle, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Eric J. Steig, Dominic A. Winski, Erich C. Osterberg, Tyler J. Fudge, Murat Aydin, Ekaterina Hood, Michael Kalk, Karl J. Kreutz, David G. Ferris, and Joshua A. Kennedy
Clim. Past, 16, 2431–2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, 2020
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A new ice core drilled at the South Pole provides a 54 000-year paleo-environmental record including the composition of the past atmosphere. This paper describes the gas chronology for the South Pole ice core, based on a high-resolution methane record. The new gas chronology, in combination with the existing ice age scale from Winski et al. (2019), allows a model-independent reconstruction of the delta age record.
Tobias Erhardt, Emilie Capron, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Simon Schüpbach, Matthias Bigler, Florian Adolphi, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019
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The cause of the rapid warming events documented in proxy records across the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial has been a long-standing puzzle in paleo-climate research. Here, we use high-resolution ice-core data from to cores in Greenland to investigate the progression during the onset of these events on multi-annual timescales to test their plausible triggers. We show that atmospheric circulation changes preceded the warming in Greenland and the collapse of the sea ice by a decade.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017
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We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Olivier Eicher, Matthias Baumgartner, Adrian Schilt, Jochen Schmitt, Jakob Schwander, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 12, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, 2016
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A new high-resolution total air content record over the NGRIP ice core, spanning 0.3–120 kyr is presented. In agreement with Antarctic ice cores, we find a strong local insolation signature but also 3–5 % decreases in total air content as a local response to Dansgaard–Oeschger events, which can only partly be explained by changes in surface pressure and temperature. Accordingly, a dynamic response of firnification to rapid climate changes on the Greenland ice sheet must have occurred.
E. Gautier, J. Savarino, J. Erbland, A. Lanciki, and P. Possenti
Clim. Past, 12, 103–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, 2016
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We evaluate the local-scale variability of a sulfate profile at a low-accumulation site (Dome C, Antarctica) to assess the representativeness of one ice core for volcanic reconstructions. Peak statistical occurrence, depth and flux variability are evaluated from five cores. Due to local-scale variability, 64 volcanic peaks can be identified by a five-cores analysis, while only half of them can be assessed from two cores. Using five cores, the uncertainty of the mean flux is reduced to 29 %.
C. Elsässer, D. Wagenbach, I. Levin, A. Stanzick, M. Christl, A. Wallner, S. Kipfstuhl, I. K. Seierstad, H. Wershofen, and J. Dibb
Clim. Past, 11, 115–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-115-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-115-2015, 2015
M. Guillevic, L. Bazin, A. Landais, C. Stowasser, V. Masson-Delmotte, T. Blunier, F. Eynaud, S. Falourd, E. Michel, B. Minster, T. Popp, F. Prié, and B. M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 10, 2115–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, 2014
A. A. Cimatoribus, S. S. Drijfhout, V. Livina, and G. van der Schrier
Clim. Past, 9, 323–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, 2013
M. Winstrup, A. M. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, O. Winther, E. J. Steig, and A. E. Axelrod
Clim. Past, 8, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1881-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1881-2012, 2012
P. Vallelonga, G. Bertagna, T. Blunier, H. A. Kjær, T. J. Popp, S. O. Rasmussen, J. P. Steffensen, C. Stowasser, A. S. Svensson, E. Warming, M. Winstrup, M. Bigler, and S. Kipfstuhl
Clim. Past, 8, 1839–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1839-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1839-2012, 2012
S. B. Simonsen, S. J. Johnsen, T. J. Popp, B. M. Vinther, V. Gkinis, and H. C. Steen-Larsen
Clim. Past, 7, 1327–1335, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1327-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1327-2011, 2011
D. Peavoy and C. Franzke
Clim. Past, 6, 787–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010, 2010
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Short summary
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the...
