Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 05 Nov 2024
| 05 Nov 2024
Estimating biases during detection of leads and lags between climate elements across Dansgaard–Oeschger events
Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, 43 St Andrew's Street, Cambridge, CB2 1DB, United Kingdom
Louise C. Sime
Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Francesco Muschitiello
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, 43 St Andrew's Street, Cambridge, CB2 1DB, United Kingdom
Keno Riechers
Research Domain IV – Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Allegra N. LeGrande, Erin L. McClymont, Agatha de Boer, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 1725–1753, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate models to study how stable water isotopes in ice cores changed in the Arctic and Antarctica during the warm Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Whilst standard simulations underestimate polar warming, when the effects of ice sheet meltwater from the preceding deglaciation are included, there is a much better match with observations. Findings suggest that previous estimates of LIG Arctic warming were too high. Understanding these past polar changes can help improve future predictions.
Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Christian Stepanek, Chris Brierley, David Schroeder, Masa Kageyama, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ed Blockley, Alex West, Danny Feltham, Jeff Ridley, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, Xiaoxu Shi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Sophia I. Macarewich, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Qiong Zhang, Allegra LeGrande, Weipeng Zheng, Dabang Jiang, Polina Morozova, Chuncheng Guo, Zhongshi Zhang, Nicholas Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Olivia Reeves, Matthew Pollock, and Anni Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3531, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic may have lost its summer sea ice 127,000 years ago during a naturally warm period in Earth’s past. Climate models can be tested by recreating those conditions, with similar sunlight and greenhouse gas levels. Analysing the large sea ice changes in these simulations helps us understand how the Arctic might respond in the near future and improves how we test and trust our climate models.
Zanna Chase, Karen E. Kohfeld, Amy Leventer, David Lund, Xavier Crosta, Laurie Menviel, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jacob Jones, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Elisabeth Sikes, Louise C. Sime, and Luke Skinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of recent dramatic declines in Antarctic sea ice on the Earth system are uncertain. We reviewed how sea ice affects ocean circulation, ice sheets, winds, and the carbon cycle by considering theory and modern observations alongside paleo-proxy reconstructions. We found evidence for connections between sea ice and these systems but also conflicting results, which point to missing knowledge. Our work highlights the complex role of sea ice in the Earth system.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 419–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Sentia Goursaud Oger, Louise C. Sime, and Max Holloway
Clim. Past, 20, 2539–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic ice cores provide information about past temperatures. Here, we run new climate model simulations, including stable water isotopes for the historical period. Across one-third of Antarctica, there is no strong connection between isotopes and temperature and a weak connection for most of the rest of Antarctica. This disconnect between isotopes and temperature is largely driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice. Our results are helpful for temperature reconstructions from ice core records.
Francesco Muschitiello and Marco Antonio Aquino-Lopez
Clim. Past, 20, 1415–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland ice-core chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U–Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, abrupt warming episodes followed by a gradual-cooling phase during mid-glacial periods. There is uncertainty whether current climate models can effectively represent the processes that cause D–O events. Here, we propose a Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS3) baseline protocol which is intended to provide modelling groups investigating D–O oscillations with a common framework.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Matthew Chadwick, Claire S. Allen, Louise C. Sime, Xavier Crosta, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 18, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Algae preserved in marine sediments have allowed us to reconstruct how much winter sea ice was present around Antarctica during a past time period (130 000 years ago) when the climate was warmer than today. The patterns of sea-ice increase and decrease vary between different parts of the Southern Ocean. The Pacific sector has a largely stable sea-ice extent, whereas the amount of sea ice in the Atlantic sector is much more variable with bigger decreases and increases than other regions.
Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, and Maria-Vittoria Guarino
The Cryosphere, 15, 5099–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
Francesco Muschitiello
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-116, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U-Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
Keno Riechers and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 17, 1751–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts comprising significant warming over Greenland, retreat of North Atlantic sea ice, and atmospheric reorganization. Statistical analysis of multi-proxy records reveals no systematic lead or lag between the transitions of proxies that represent different climatic subsystems, and hence no evidence for a potential trigger of these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events can be found.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Cited articles
Adolphi, F., Bronk Ramsey, C., Erhardt, T., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Turney, C. S. M., Cooper, A., Svensson, A., Rasmussen, S. O., Fischer, H., and Muscheler, R.: Connecting the Greenland ice-core and U/Th timescales via cosmogenic radionuclides: testing the synchroneity of Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Clim. Past, 14, 1755–1781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1755-2018, 2018. a
Brown, N. and Galbraith, E. D.: Hosed vs. unhosed: interruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a global coupled model, with and without freshwater forcing, Clim. Past, 12, 1663–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1663-2016, 2016. a
Buizert, C., Sigl, M., Severi, M., Markle, B. R., Wettstein, J. J., McConnell, J. R., Pedro, J. B., Sodemann, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Kawamura, K., Fujita, S., Motoyama, H., Hirabayashi, M., Uemura, R., Stenni, B., Parrenin, F., He, F., Fudge, T. J., and Steig, E. J.: Abrupt ice-age shifts in southern westerly winds and Antarctic climate forced from the north, Nature, 563, 681–685, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0727-5, n2018. a
Capron, E., Rasmussen, S. O., Popp, T. J., Erhardt, T., Fischer, H., Landais, A., Pedro, J. B., Vettoretti, G., Grinsted, A., Gkinis, V., Vaughn, B., Svensson, A., Vinther, B. M., and White, J. W. C.: The anatomy of past abrupt warmings recorded in Greenland ice, Nat. Communi., 12, 2106, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22241-w, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q
Cheng, H., Sinha, A., Cruz, F. W., Wang, X., Edwards, R. L., d'Horta, F. M., Ribas, C. C., Vuille, M., Stott, L. D., and Auler, A. S.: Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity, Nat. Commun., 4, 1411, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2415, 2013. a
Corrick, E. C., Drysdale, R. N., Hellstrom, J. C., Capron, E., Rasmussen, S. O., Zhang, X., Fleitmann, D., Couchoud, I., Wolff, E., and Monsoon, S. A.: Synchronous timing of abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period, Science, 369, 963–969, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay5538, 2020. a
Dansgaard, W., Clausen, H. B., Gundestrup, N., Hammer, C. U., Johnsen, S. F., Kristinsdottir, P. M., and Reeh, N.: A New Greenland Deep Ice Core, Science, 218, 1273–1277, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.218.4579.1273, 1982. a
Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N. S., Hammer, C. U., Hvidberg, C. S., Steffensen, J. P., Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. E., Jouzel, J., and Bond, G.: Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record, Nature, 364, 218–220, https://doi.org/10.1038/364218a0, 1993. a
Dokken, T. M., Nisancioglu, K. H., Li, C., Battisti, D. S., and Kissel, C.: Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles: Interactions between ocean and sea ice intrinsic to the Nordic seas, Paleoceanography, 28, 491–502, https://doi.org/10.1002/palo.20042, 2013. a
Drysdale, R. N., Zanchetta, G., Hellstrom, J. C., Fallick, A. E., McDonald, J., and Cartwright, I.: Stalagmite evidence for the precise timing of North Atlantic cold events during the early last glacial, Geology, 35, 77–80, https://doi.org/10.1130/G23161A.1, 2007. a
Erhardt, T., Capron, E., Rasmussen, S. O., Schüpbach, S., Bigler, M., Adolphi, F., and Fischer, H.: Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events, Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z, aa, ab
Erhardt, T., Bigler, M., Federer, U., Gfeller, G., Leuenberger, D., Stowasser, O., Röthlisberger, R., Schüpbach, S., Ruth, U., Twarloh, B., Wegner, A., Goto-Azuma, Kum., Takayuki, K., Kjær, H. As., Vallelonga, P. T., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Hansson, M. E., Benton, A. K., Fleet, L. G., Mulvaney, Ro., Thomas, E. R., Abram, N. J., Stocker, T. F., and Fischer, H.: High resolution aerosol concentration data from the Greenland NorthGRIP and NEEM deep ice cores [dataset bundled publication], PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.935838, 2021. a
Fleitmann, D., Cheng, H., Badertscher, S., Edwards, R. L., Mudelsee, M., Göktürk, O. M., Fankhauser, A., Pickering, R., Raible, C. C., Matter, A., Kramers, J., and Tüysüz, O.: Timing and climatic impact of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from northern Turkey, Geophy. Res. Lett., 36, L19707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040050, 2009. a
Fohlmeister, J., Sekhon, N., Columbu, A., Vettoretti, G., Weitzel, N., Rehfeld, K., Veiga-Pires, C., Ben-Yami, M., Marwan, N., and Boers, N.: Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2302283120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2302283120, 2023. a
Gottschalk, J., Skinner, L. C., Misra, S., Waelbroeck, C., Menviel, L., and Timmermann, A.: Abrupt changes in the southern extent of North Atlantic Deep Water during Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Nat. Geosci., 8, 950–954, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2558, 2015. a
Henry, L. G., McManus, J. F., Curry, W. B., Roberts, N. L., Piotrowski, A. M., and Keigwin, L. D.: North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation, Science, 353, 470–474, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf5529, 2016. a
Hoff, U., Rasmussen, T. L., Stein, R., Ezat, M. M., and Fahl, K.: Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to Nat. Commun., 7, 12247, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12247, 2016. a
Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dansgaard, W., Fuhrer, K., Gundestrup, N., Hammer, C. U., Iversen, P., Jouzel, J., Stauffer, B., and Steffensen, J. P.: Irregular glacial interstadials recorded in a new Greenland ice core, Nature, 359, 311–313, https://doi.org/10.1038/359311a0, 1992. a
Kanner, L. C., Burns, S. J., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L.: High-Latitude Forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon During the Last Glacial, Science, 335, 570–573, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1213397, 2012. a
Kindler, P., Guillevic, M., Baumgartner, M., Schwander, J., Landais, A., and Leuenberger, M.: Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core, Clim. Past, 10, 887–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014, 2014. a
Klockmann, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Kleppin, H., and Marotzke, J.: Coupling of the Subpolar Gyre and the Overturning Circulation During Abrupt Glacial Climate Transitions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090361, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090361, 2020. a
Kuniyoshi, Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Chan, W.-L., and Saito, F.: Effect of Climatic Precession on Dansgaard-Oeschger-Like Oscillations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL095695, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095695, 2022. a
Li, C. and Born, A.: Coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean dynamics in Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 203, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.10.031, 2019. a
Li, C., Battisti, D. S., Schrag, D. P., and Tziperman, E.: Abrupt climate shifts in Greenland due to displacements of the sea ice edge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023492, 2005. a
Li, C., Battisti, D. S., and Bitz, C. M.: Can North Atlantic Sea Ice Anomalies Account for Dansgaard–Oeschger Climate Signals?, J. Climate, 23, 5457–5475, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3409.1, 2010. a
Li, T.-Y., Han, L.-Y., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Shen, C.-C., Li, H.-C., Li, J.-Y., Huang, C.-X., Zhang, T.-T., and Zhao, X.: Evolution of the Asian summer monsoon during Dansgaard/Oeschger events 13–17 recorded in a stalagmite constrained by high-precision chronology from southwest China, Quatern. Res., 88, 121–128, https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2017.22, 2017. a
Lohmann, J. and Ditlevsen, P. D.: Objective extraction and analysis of statistical features of Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Clim. Past, 15, 1771–1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1771-2019, 2019. a
Lynch-Stieglitz, J.: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 9, 83–104, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415, 2017. a, b
Maffezzoli, N., Vallelonga, P., Edwards, R., Saiz-Lopez, A., Turetta, C., Kjær, H. A., Barbante, C., Vinther, B., and Spolaor, A.: A 120 000-year record of sea ice in the North Atlantic?, Clim. Past, 15, 2031–2051, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-2031-2019, 2019. a
Malmierca-Vallet, I. and Sime, L. C.: Spontaneous Dansgaard–Oeschger type Oscillations in climate models (SDOO), British Antarctic Survey [data set], https://www.bas.ac.uk/project/sdoo/#data (last access: 30 October 2024), 2024. a
Malmierca-Vallet, I., Sime, L. C., and the D–O community members: Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol, Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023. a, b, c
Markle, B. R., Steig, E. J., Buizert, C., Schoenemann, S. W., Bitz, C. M., Fudge, T. J., Pedro, J. B., Ding, Q., Jones, T. R., White, J. W. C., and Sowers, T.: Global atmospheric teleconnections during Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Nat. Geosci., 10, 36–40, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2848, 2017. a
Moseley, G. E., Spötl, C., Svensson, A., Cheng, H., Brandstätter, S., and Edwards, R. L.: Multi-speleothem record reveals tightly coupled climate between central Europe and Greenland during Marine Isotope Stage 3, Geology, 42, 1043–1046, https://doi.org/10.1130/G36063.1, 2014. a
NGRIP members: High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 431, 147–151, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02805, 2004. a, b, c
Sadatzki, H., Maffezzoli, N., Dokken, T. M., Simon, M. H., Berben, S. M. P., Fahl, K., Kjær, H. A., Spolaor, A., Stein, R., Vallelonga, P., Vinther, B. M., and Jansen, E.: Rapid reductions and millennial-scale variability in Nordic Seas sea ice cover during abrupt glacial climate changes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 29478–29486, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2005849117, 2020. a
Schneider, T., Bischoff, T., and Haug, G. H.: Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone, Nature, 513, 45–53, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13636, 2014. a
Schüpbach, S., Fischer, H., Bigler, M., Erhardt, T., Gfeller, G., Leuenberger, D., Mini, O., Mulvaney, R., Abram, N. J., Fleet, L., Frey, M. M., Thomas, E., Svensson, A., Dahl-Jensen, D., Kettner, E., Kjaer, H., Seierstad, I., Steffensen, J. P., Rasmussen, S. O., Vallelonga, P., Winstrup, M., Wegner, A., Twarloh, B., Wolff, K., Schmidt, K., Goto-Azuma, K., Kuramoto, T., Hirabayashi, M., Uetake, J., Zheng, J., Bourgeois, J., Fisher, D., Zhiheng, D., Xiao, C., Legrand, M., Spolaor, A., Gabrieli, J., Barbante, C., Kang, J.-H., Hur, S. D., Hong, S. B., Hwang, H. J., Hong, S., Hansson, M., Iizuka, Y., Oyabu, I., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Maselli, O., McConnell, J., and Wolff, E. W.: Greenland records of aerosol source and atmospheric lifetime changes from the Eemian to the Holocene, Nat. Commun., 9, 1476, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03924-3, 2018. a
Sime, L. C., Hopcroft, P. O., and Rhodes, R. H.: Impact of abrupt sea ice loss on Greenland water isotopes during the last glacial period, P. Natl. Acac. Sci. USA, 116, 4099–4104, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807261116, 2019. a
Slattery, J.: DO Temporal Phasing Code, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14013564, 2024. a
Steffensen, J. P., Andersen, K. K., Bigler, M., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M., Johnsen, S. J., Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Popp, T., Rasmussen, S. O., Röthlisberger, R., Ruth, U., Stauffer, B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Sveinbjörnsdóttir, A. E., Svensson, A., and White, J. W. C.: High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years, Science, 321, 680–684, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1157707, 2008. a, b
Vettoretti, G. and Peltier, W. R.: Thermohaline instability and the formation of glacial North Atlantic super polynyas at the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 5336–5344, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068891, 2016. a
Wang, X., Auler, A. S., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Cristalli, P. S., Smart, P. L., Richards, D. A., and Shen, C.-C.: Wet periods in northeastern Brazil over the past 210 kyr linked to distant climate anomalies, Nature, 432, 740–743, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03067, 2004. a
Wang, Y., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Kong, X., Shao, X., Chen, S., Wu, J., Jiang, X., Wang, X., and An, Z.: Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years, Nature, 451, 1090–1093, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06692, 2008. a
Wang, Y. J., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., An, Z. S., Wu, J. Y., Shen, C.-C., and Dorale, J. A.: A High-Resolution Absolute-Dated Late Pleistocene Monsoon Record from Hulu Cave, China, Science, 294, 2345–2348, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064618, 2001. a
Zhang, X., Barker, S., Knorr, G., Lohmann, G., Drysdale, R., Sun, Y., Hodell, D., and Chen, F.: Direct astronomical influence on abrupt climate variability, Nat. Geosci., 14, 819–826, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00846-6, 2021. a
Short summary
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the...
