Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jul 2023
Research article |
| 13 Jul 2023
| 13 Jul 2023
Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Jonny H. T. Williams
NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand
Sebastian Naeher
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Osamu Seki
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
Erin L. McClymont
Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
Molly O. Patterson
Environmental Studies, Binghamton University, SUNY, Binghamton, New York, United States of America
Alan M. Haywood
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Erik Behrens
NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand
Masanobu Yamamoto
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
Katelyn Johnson
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Related authors
No articles found.
Sindia M. Sosdian, Alexandra Auderset, Sevasti Modestou, Ann Holbourn, Flavia Boscolo-Galazzo, Anna Joy Drury, Anya V. Hess, Karlos G. D. Kochhann, Diederik Liebrand, Xiaoqing Liu, Jared Nirenberg, Neeraj S. Shah, Deborah Tangunan, Gerald Auer, Marcus P. S. Badger, Clara Bolton, Alexander Clark, Anya Crocker, David Evans, Sarah Feakins, Timothy Herbert, Emily Judd, Jennifer Kasbohm, David King, Wout Krijgsman, Wolfgang Kuhnt, Kira Lawrence, Caroline H. Lear, Kim Marshall-Mills, Erin McClymont, Nele Meckler, Paul Minton, Katrina Nilsson-Kerr, Diana Ochoa, Marci Robinson, Thamizharasan Sakthivel, Francesca Sangiorgi, Amelia E. Shevenell, Weimin Si, Elizabeth Sibert, Kasia K. Sliwinska, Appy Sluijs, Heather Stoll, Victoria Taylor, Tim van Peer, Bridget Wade, Thomas Westerhold, Evi Wubben, Yige Zhang, and Martin Ziegler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-699, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-699, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The MioOcean database hosts Miocene (23–5.3 million years ago) ocean temperatures, standardised and with updated age information, comprising 22,941 data points from 101 scientific studies. As parts of the Miocene were warmer than present, with estimated CO2 levels similar to those projected for the near future, this database enables assessment of how past oceans responded to climate variations, which may improve predictions of climate responses to anticipated future warming.
Emma M. de Jong, Xavier Crosta, Sebastian Naeher, Bella Duncan, Johan Etourneau, Jae Il Lee, Robert McKay, and V. Holly L. Winton
Biogeosciences, 23, 6979–7008, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6979-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6979-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines chemical and biological traces (biomarkers) of microscopic algae in Antarctic sediments. We show how sea ice conditions and different phytoplankton communities influence the types of biomarkers preserved on the seafloor, and how these records reveal an overall increase in sea ice duration in the Ross Sea over the past 200 years.
Abigail E. C. Buchan, Alan M. Haywood, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, and Julia C. Tindall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4616, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Examining Late Pliocene climate provides an opportunity to understand how the climate system behaves in a warmer state. Using multiple climate models, we look at the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Late Pliocene. These models show that the NAO index is more positive on average, but there is a large spread of responses. We also look at precipitation in Europe and find that there is a shift towards more precipitation in Northern Europe, although this change may not be driven by the NAO.
Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Grenville Lister, Rosalyn Hatcher, Dan Hodson, Bryan Lawrence, Len Shaffrey, Jeff Cole, Andrea Dittus, Jenny Mecking, Jon Robson, Simon Wilson, Yevgeny Aksenov, Adam T. Blaker, Ben Harvey, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Annette Osprey, Stephanie Rynders, Sharar Ahmadi, Jake Aylmer, Laura Baker, David Case, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Steve George, Kevin Hodges, Eliza Karlowska, Charlotte Lang, Hua Lu, Niamh O'Callaghan, Weronika Osmolska, Scott Osprey, Tony Phillips, David Schröder, Robin Smith, Andrew G. Turner, Steve Woolnough, Martin Andrews, Andrew Coward, Steven Hardiman, James Harle, John W. Rostron, David M. H. Sexton, Bablu Sinha, Jonny Williams, and Chris Wilson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2281, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new large ensemble of climate model simulations: The CANARI HadGEM3 Large Ensemble (CANARI LE). The CANARI LE has a comparatively high resolution, provides sub-daily output on atmospheric pressure levels, and boundary conditions for driving regional model simulations. The CANARI LE is thus a community resource that lends itself for the study of physical coupled climate processes, weather systems, and impacts in a changing climate.
Abigail E. C. Buchan, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Aisling M. Dolan, and Daniel J. Hill
Clim. Past, 22, 861–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-861-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-861-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Studying the climate of the Late Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) can help improve our knowledge of the climate system. We investigate how, and why the jet steam changes during this time. Using climate model simulations of the Late Pliocene we find a weaker, more variable and poleward shifted North Pacific jet stream which may impact the occurrence of extreme events. Using new simulations, we find the changes in the jet steam can be attributed to the orography boundary conditions.
Huimin Wang, Lingqiao Cheng, Erik Behrens, Zhuang Chen, Jennifer Devine, and Guoping Zhu
Ocean Sci., 22, 1085–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1085-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1085-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study focused on the cross-frontal eddies (CFEs) in the Pacific sector. By analyzing 23 years of satellite and Argo float data, we found that the behaviors of these CFEs vary according to their polarity and direction. These powerful CFEs play a key role in transporting heat and nutrients meridionally, and helping to counteract the effects of strengthening winds and inhomogeneous warming.
Olga Albot, Joshua Ratcliffe, Richard Levy, Sebastian Naeher, Daniel J. King, Catherine Ginnane, Jocelyn Turnbull, Mary Jill Ira Banta, Christopher Wood, Jenny Dahl, Jannine Cooper, and Andy Phillips
Biogeosciences, 23, 2155–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2155-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2155-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Saltmarshes store carbon in their soils, contributing to climate change mitigation. We analysed five sites across New Zealand and found that carbon storage and accumulation rates vary widely with geomorphic setting, land use history and sediment inputs. Plant material was a major source of carbon in the soil and has been preserved in basal sediments for several centuries. These results improve national blue carbon estimates and highlight the role of saltmarshes as natural climate solutions.
Hana Ishii, Osamu Seki, Masanobu Yamamoto, and Bella Duncan
Clim. Past, 22, 585–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-585-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-585-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the utility of the archaeal-derived lipid biomarker as paleoenvironmental proxies in the Southern Ocean. Based on a reanalysis of the Southern Ocean dataset, we propose a new indicator for reconstructing zonal water mass movements in the Southern Ocean and temperatures in the Antarctic Zone. Applying this method to late Pleistocene sediment cores validates its reliability, confirming a valuable new tool for reconstructing the paleoenvironment of the Southern Ocean.
Mark A. Stevenson, Dominic A. Hodgson, Michael J. Bentley, Darren R. Gröcke, Neil Tunstall, Chris Longley, Alice Graham, and Erin L. McClymont
Clim. Past, 21, 2465–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2465-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2465-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a record of sea ice and climate inferred from novel snow petrel stomach oil deposits from East Antarctica. Snow petrels feed in the sea ice on a mixture of marine organisms and regurgitate these oils close to their nesting sites in nunatak mountains. We use makers of past diet and productivity from within a deposit to show how sea ice and climate has varied over part of the Holocene. Three periods are identified ranging from low to intermediate and increased sea ice cover.
Peter K. Bijl, Kasia K. Śliwińska, Bella Duncan, Arnaud Huguet, Sebastian Naeher, Ronnakrit Rattanasriampaipong, Claudia Sosa-Montes de Oca, Alexandra Auderset, Melissa A. Berke, Bum Soo Kim, Nina Davtian, Tom Dunkley Jones, Desmond D. Eefting, Felix J. Elling, Pierrick Fenies, Gordon N. Inglis, Lauren O'Connor, Richard D. Pancost, Francien Peterse, Addison Rice, Appy Sluijs, Devika Varma, Wenjie Xiao, and Yi Ge Zhang
Biogeosciences, 22, 6465–6508, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6465-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6465-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many academic laboratories worldwide process environmental samples for analysis of membrane lipid molecules of archaea, for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions. However, the sample workup scheme involves many steps, each of which has a risk of contamination or bias, affecting the results. This paper reviews steps involved in sampling, extraction and analysis of lipids, interpretation and archiving of the data. This ensures reproducible, reusable, comparable and consistent data.
Marjolaine Verret, Sebastian Naeher, Denis Lacelle, Catherine Ginnane, Warren Dickinson, Kevin Norton, Jocelyn Turnbull, and Richard Levy
Biogeosciences, 22, 5771–5786, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5771-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5771-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
15 million years ago, the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica were dominated by a tundra environment. In contrast, the modern environment is amongst the coldest and driest on Earth. Using a permafrost core, this paper investigates the shift from a tundra- to a bacteria-dominated landscape. By differentiating between ancient and modern organic material, we further our understanding of preservation of ancient organic material and its response and contribution to future climate change.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Allegra N. LeGrande, Erin L. McClymont, Agatha de Boer, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 1725–1753, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate models to study how stable water isotopes in ice cores changed in the Arctic and Antarctica during the warm Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Whilst standard simulations underestimate polar warming, when the effects of ice sheet meltwater from the preceding deglaciation are included, there is a much better match with observations. Findings suggest that previous estimates of LIG Arctic warming were too high. Understanding these past polar changes can help improve future predictions.
Christian Lewis, Rachel Corran, Sara E. Mikaloff-Fletcher, Erik Behrens, Rowena Moss, Gordon Brailsford, Andrew Lorrey, Margaret Norris, and Jocelyn Turnbull
Biogeosciences, 22, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean carbon sink is a balance between two opposing forces: CO2 absorption at mid-latitudes and CO2 outgassing at high latitudes. Radiocarbon analysis can be used to constrain the latter, as upwelling waters outgas old CO2, diluting atmospheric radiocarbon content. We present tree-ring radiocarbon measurements from Aotearoa / New Zealand and Chile. We show that low radiocarbon in Aotearoa / New Zealand’s Motu Ihupuku / Campbell Island is linked to outgassing in the critical Antarctic Southern Zone.
Christopher J. Roach, Joao Marcos A. C. de Souza, Erik Behrens, and Stephen J. Stuart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1962, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We have used a 5 km regional ocean model for New Zealand forced with a coarser resolution global model to project changes in under medium and high emissions scenarios. This is necessary since the global model is unable to resolve the small scale processes on the continental shelf which determine climate change may influence fisheries and aquaculture. We see the upper ocean warms at similar rates all around New Zealand, but that the deep ocean shows more rapid warming in the west and south.
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, Erin McClymont, and Sze Ling Ho
Clim. Past, 20, 1989–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1989-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, representing the period roughly 3.2 million years before the present day. We estimate that the globally averaged mean temperature was around 3.9 °C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times, but there is significant uncertainty in this value.
Jack T. R. Wilkin, Sev Kender, Rowan Dejardin, Claire S. Allen, Victoria L. Peck, George E. A. Swann, Erin L. McClymont, James D. Scourse, Kate Littler, and Melanie J. Leng
J. Micropalaeontol., 43, 165–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-43-165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-43-165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The sub-Antarctic island of South Georgia has a dynamic glacial history and is sensitive to climate change. Using benthic foraminifera and various geochemical proxies, we reconstruct inner–middle shelf productivity and infer glacial evolution since the late deglacial, identifying new mid–late-Holocene glacial readvances. Fursenkoina fusiformis acts as a good proxy for productivity.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Erin L. McClymont, Sze Ling Ho, and Heather L. Ford
Clim. Past, 20, 1177–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) is of interest because its warm climate is similar to projections of the future. We explore the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide in forcing sea surface temperature during the Pliocene by combining climate model outputs with palaeoclimate proxy data. We investigate whether this role changes seasonally and also use our data to suggest a new estimate of Pliocene climate sensitivity. More data are needed to further explore the results presented.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) cause the Southern Ocean surface to become fresher and warmer, which affects the global ocean circulation. The CO2 concentration and the smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet both have a similar and approximately equal impact on the Southern Ocean. The conditions of the Southern Ocean in the mid-Pliocene could therefore be analogous to those in a future climate with smaller ice sheets.
Tobias Roylands, Robert G. Hilton, Erin L. McClymont, Mark H. Garnett, Guillaume Soulet, Sébastien Klotz, Mathis Degler, Felipe Napoleoni, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 271–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-271-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-271-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical weathering of sedimentary rocks can release carbon dioxide and consume oxygen. We present a new field-based method to measure the exchange of these gases in real time, which allows us to directly compare the amount of reactants and products. By studying two sites with different rock types, we show that the chemical composition is an important factor in driving the weathering reactions. Locally, the carbon dioxide release changes alongside temperature and precipitation.
Yusuf A. Bhatti, Laura E. Revell, Alex J. Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, Alex T. Archibald, Jonny Williams, Abhijith U. Venugopal, Catherine Hardacre, and Erik Behrens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15181–15196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are a large source of uncertainty over the Southern Ocean. A dominant source of sulfate aerosol in this region is dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is poorly simulated by climate models. We show the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric DMS to the choice of oceanic DMS data set and emission scheme. We show that oceanic DMS has twice the influence on atmospheric DMS than the emission scheme. Simulating DMS more accurately in climate models will help to constrain aerosol uncertainty.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Jonny Williams, Erik Behrens, Olaf Morgenstern, Peter Gibson, and Joao Teixeira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We use open-source cyclone tracking software and state-of-the-art climate models to characterise present-day tropical cyclones – TCs – in the South Pacific before moving on to estimate how they may change in the future. A robust result of this work is the projection of future intensification of TCs. However, the question of their future occurrence frequency is less clear. Under extreme future warming scenarios, we postulate a possible increase in power dissipation per TC of up to 25 %.
Bjørg Risebrobakken, Mari F. Jensen, Helene R. Langehaug, Tor Eldevik, Anne Britt Sandø, Camille Li, Andreas Born, Erin Louise McClymont, Ulrich Salzmann, and Stijn De Schepper
Clim. Past, 19, 1101–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the observational period, spatially coherent sea surface temperatures characterize the northern North Atlantic at multidecadal timescales. We show that spatially non-coherent temperature patterns are seen both in further projections and a past warm climate period with a CO2 level comparable to the future low-emission scenario. Buoyancy forcing is shown to be important for northern North Atlantic temperature patterns.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm climates of the Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) are similar to projections of the near future. We find elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide to be the most important forcing for driving changes in Pliocene surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation. However, changes caused by the nature of Pliocene ice sheets and orography are also important, affecting the extent to which we can use the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future.
Xiaofang Huang, Shiling Yang, Alan Haywood, Julia Tindall, Dabang Jiang, Yongda Wang, Minmin Sun, and Shihao Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 731–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-731-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-731-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The sensitivity of climate to the height changes of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) during the mid-Pliocene has been assessed using the HadCM3 model. The results show that the height reduction of the EAIS leads to a warmer and wetter East Antarctica. However, unintuitively, both the surface air temperature and the sea surface temperature decrease over the rest of the globe. These findings could provide insights into future changes caused by warming-induced decay of the Antarctic ice sheet.
James A. Smith, Louise Callard, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Maria Luisa Sánchez-Montes, Timothy P. Lane, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Erin L. McClymont, Christopher M. Darvill, Brice R. Rea, Colm O'Cofaigh, Pauline Gulliver, Werner Ehrmann, Richard S. Jones, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1247–1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at an accelerating rate. To understand the significance of these changes we reconstruct the history of one of its fringing ice shelves, known as 79° N ice shelf. We show that the ice shelf disappeared 8500 years ago, following a period of enhanced warming. An important implication of our study is that 79° N ice shelf is susceptible to collapse when atmospheric and ocean temperatures are ~2°C warmer than present, which could occur by the middle of this century.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Ulrich Salzmann, Aisling M. Dolan, and Tamara Fletcher
Clim. Past, 18, 1385–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene (MP; ∼3.0 Ma) had CO2 levels similar to today and average temperatures ∼3°C warmer. At terrestrial high latitudes, MP temperatures from climate models are much lower than those reconstructed from data. This mismatch occurs in the winter but not the summer. The winter model–data mismatch likely has multiple causes. One novel cause is that the MP climate may be outside the modern sample, and errors could occur when using information from the modern era to reconstruct climate.
Christopher J. Hollis, Sebastian Naeher, Christopher D. Clowes, B. David A. Naafs, Richard D. Pancost, Kyle W. R. Taylor, Jenny Dahl, Xun Li, G. Todd Ventura, and Richard Sykes
Clim. Past, 18, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies of Paleogene greenhouse climates identified short-lived global warming events, termed hyperthermals, that provide insights into global warming scenarios. Within the same time period, we have identified a short-lived cooling event in the late Paleocene, which we term a hypothermal, that has potential to provide novel insights into the feedback mechanisms at work in a greenhouse climate.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Molly O. Patterson, Richard H. Levy, Denise K. Kulhanek, Tina van de Flierdt, Huw Horgan, Gavin B. Dunbar, Timothy R. Naish, Jeanine Ash, Alex Pyne, Darcy Mandeno, Paul Winberry, David M. Harwood, Fabio Florindo, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Andreas Läufer, Kyu-Cheul Yoo, Osamu Seki, Paolo Stocchi, Johann P. Klages, Jae Il Lee, Florence Colleoni, Yusuke Suganuma, Edward Gasson, Christian Ohneiser, José-Abel Flores, David Try, Rachel Kirkman, Daleen Koch, and the SWAIS 2C Science Team
Sci. Dril., 30, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
How much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt and how quickly it will happen when average global temperatures exceed 2 °C is currently unknown. Given the far-reaching and international consequences of Antarctica’s future contribution to global sea level rise, the SWAIS 2C Project was developed in order to better forecast the size and timing of future changes.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Cited articles
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/1163, last access: 16 June 2022.
Batchelor, C. L., Margold, M., Krapp, M., Murton, D. K., Dalton, A. S.,
Gibbard, P. L., Stokes, C. R., Murton, J. B., and Manica, A.: The configuration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Quaternary, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11601-2, 2019.
Behrens, E., Fernandez, D., and Sutton, P.: Meridional oceanic heat transport
influences marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea on interannual to decadal
timescales, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 228, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00228, 2019.
Behrens, E., Williams, J., Morgenstern, O., Sutton, P., Rickard, G., and
Williams, M. J.: Local grid refinement in New Zealand's earth system model:
Tasman Sea ocean circulation improvements and super-gyre circulation
implications, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001996, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001996, 2020.
Behrens, E., Rickard, G., Rosier, S., Williams, J., Morgenstern, O., and
Stone, D.: Projections of Future Marine Heatwaves for the Oceans Around New
Zealand Using New Zealand's Earth System Model, Front. Climate, 4, 798287,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.798287, 2022.
Benaglia, T., Chauveau, D., Hunter, D. R., and Young, D. S.: mixtools: an R package for analyzing mixture models, J. Stat. Softw., 32, 1–29, 2010.
Bertram, R. A., Wilson, D. J., van de Flierdt, T., McKay, R. M., Patterson,
M. O., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., Escutia, C., Duke, G. C., Taylor-Silva, B. I., and Riesselman, C. R.: Pliocene deglacial event timelines and the biogeochemical response offshore Wilkes Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 494, 109–116, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0501-8, 2018.
Bostock, H. C., Hayward, B. W., Neil, H. L., Sabaa, A. T., and Scott, G. H.:
Changes in the position of the Subtropical Front south of New Zealand since
the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 30, 824–844, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014PA002652, 2015.
Burke, K. D., Williams, J. W., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., and Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 13288–13293, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809600115, 2018.
Caballero-Gill, R. P., Herbert, T. D., and Dowsett, H. J.: 100-kyr paced climate change in the Pliocene warm period, Southwest Pacific, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclim., 34, 524–545, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018PA003496, 2019.
Carter, R. M., McCave, I. N., and Carter, L.: Leg 181 synthesis: fronts, flows, drifts, volcanoes, and the evolution of the southwestern gateway to
the Pacific Ocean, eastern New Zealand, in: Proc. ODP, Sci. Results, 181, edited by: Richter, C., Ocean Drilling Program, College Station, TX, 1–111,
https://doi.org/10.2973/odp.proc.sr.181.210.2004, 2004.
Chalk, T. B., Hain, M. P., Foster, G. L., Rohling, E. J., Sexton, P. F., Badger, M. P., Cherry, S. G., Hasenfratz, A. P., Haug, G. H., Jaccard, S. L., and Martínez–García, A.: Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, 13114–13119,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1702143114, 2017.
Chen, L., Cao, L., Zhou, Z., Zhang, D., and Liao, J.: A New Globally Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Dataset since 1900, J. Meteorol. Res., 35, 911–925, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-021-1098-7, 2021.
Chiswell, S. M.: Atmospheric wavenumber-4 driven South Pacific marine heat
waves and marine cool spells, Nat. Commun., 12, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25160-y, 2021.
Chiswell, S. M., Bostock, H. C., Sutton, P. J., and Williams, M. J.: Physical
oceanography of the deep seas around New Zealand: a review, NZ. J. Mar. Freshwater Res., 49, 286–317, https://doi.org/10.1080/00288330.2014.992918, 2015.
Conte, M. H., Sicre, M. A., Rühlemann, C., Weber, J. C., Schulte, S.,
Schulz-Bull, D., and Blanz, T.: Global temperature calibration of the
alkenone unsaturation index (U
Cook, C. P., Van De Flierdt, T., Williams, T., Hemming, S. R., Iwai, M.,
Kobayashi, M., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., Escutia, C., González, J. J., Khim,
B. K., and McKay, R. M.: Dynamic behaviour of the East Antarctic ice sheet
during Pliocene warmth, Nat. Geosci., 6, 765–769, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1889, 2013.
Cortese, G., Dunbar, G. B., Carter, L., Scott, G., Bostock, H., Bowen, M., Crundwell, M., Hayward, B. W., Howard, W., Martínez, J. I., and Moy, A.: Southwest Pacific Ocean response to a warmer world: insights from Marine Isotope Stage 5e, Paleoceanography, 28, 585–598, https://doi.org/10.1002/palo.20052, 2013.
Cortese, G., Dunbar, G. B., Carter, L., Scott, G., Bostock, H., Bowen, M.,
Crundwell, M., Hayward, B. W., Hargreaves, J. C., and Annan, J. D.: Could the
Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity?, Clim. Past, 12, 1591–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016, 2016.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier,
A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., and Hannay, C.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020.
De Bar, M. W., Rampen, S. W., Hopmans, E. C., Damsté, J. S. S., and Schouten, S.: Constraining the applicability of organic paleotemperature proxies for the last 90 Myrs, Org. Geochem., 128, 122–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2018.12.005, 2019.
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future
sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016.
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez,
N., Sadai, S., Condron, A., Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., and Kopp, R. E.: The
Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica, Nature,
593, 83–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0, 2021.
De La Vega, E., Chalk, T. B., Wilson, P. A., Bysani, R. P., and Foster, G. L.: Atmospheric CO2 during the Mid–Piacenzian Warm Period and the M2 glaciation, Sci. Rep., 10, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67154-8, 2020.
Dennison, F., Keeble, J., Morgenstern, O., Zeng, G., Abraham, N. L., and Yang,X.: Improvements to stratospheric chemistry scheme in the UM-UKCA (v10.7) model: solar cycle and heterogeneous reactions, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1227–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019 , 2019.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Sörensson, A. A., Almazroui, M., Dosio, A., Gutowski, W. J., Haarsma, R., Hamdi, R., Hewitson, B., Kwon, W.-T., Lamptey, B. L., Maraun, D., Stephenson, T. S., Takayabu, I., Terray, L., Turner, A., and Zuo, Z.: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1363–1512, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.012, 2021.
Dowsett, H., Dolan, A., Rowley, D., Moucha, R., Forte, A. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Pound, M., Salzmann, U., Robinson, M., Chandler, M., and Foley, K.: The
PRISM4 (mid–Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction, Clim. Past, 12,
1519–1538., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1519-2016, 2016.
Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., Stoll, D. K., Foley, K. M., Johnson, A. L.,
Williams, M., and Riesselman, C. R.: The PRISM (Pliocene palaeoclimate)
reconstruction: time for a paradigm shift, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 371, 20120524, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0524, 2013.
Dunkley Jones, T., Eley, Y. L., Thomson, W., Greene, S. E., Mandel, I., Edgar, K., and Bendle, J. A.: OPTiMAL: A new machine learning approach for
GDGT–based palaeothermometry, Clim. Past, 16, 2599–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2599-2020, 2020.
Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto,
R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349, aaa4019, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4019, 2015.
Elling, F. J., Könneke, M., Lipp, J. S., Becker, K. W., Gagen, E. J., and
Hinrichs, K. U.: Effects of growth phase on the membrane lipid composition
of the thaumarchaeon Nitrosopumilus maritimus and their implications for
archaeal lipid distributions in the marine environment, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 141, 579–597, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2014.07.005, 2014.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E:. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Exon, N. F., Kennett, J. P., Malone, M. J., and the Shipboard Scientific Party: The Tasmanian Gateway: Cenozoic climatic and oceanographic development sites 1168-1172, Proc. ODP, Init. Repts., 189,
Ocean Drilling Program, College Station, TX, https://doi.org/10.2973/odp.proc.ir.189.2001, 2001.
Fischer, H., Meissner, K. J., Mix, A. C., et al.: Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 ∘C anthropogenic warming and beyond, Nat. Geosci., 11, 474–485, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0, 2018.
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame,
D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021.
Golledge, N. R., Keller, E. D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K. A., Bernales, J.,
Trusel, L. D., and Edwards, T. L.: Global environmental consequences of
twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt, Nature, 566, 65–72, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9, 2019.
Grant, G.: 83767IODP, International Ocean Discovery Program core repository at Kochi Core Centre, LIMS Online Report Portal [sample], https://web.iodp.tamu.edu/LORE/ (last access: 11 July 2023), 2020.
Grant, G.: Data tables associated with manuscript “Grant et al., Regional amplified warming in the Southwest Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma)”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7935217, 2022.
Grant, G.: GRG-GNS/Pliocene-SST-Southwest-Pacific: Publication release Grant et al., 2023 Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (v1.0.script), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8125899, 2023.
Grant, G. and Naish, T.: Pliocene sea–level revisited: is there more than
meets the eye?, PAGES Magazine, 29, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.29.1.34, 2021.
Grant, G. R., Naish, T. R., Dunbar, G. B., Stocchi, P., Kominz, M. A., Kamp,
P. J., Tapia, C. A., McKay, R. M., Levy, R. H., and Patterson, M. O.: The
amplitude and origin of sea–level variability during the Pliocene epoch, Nature, 574, 237–241, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1619-z, 2019.
Hargreaves, J. C. and Annan, J. D.: Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity?, Clim. Past, 12, 1591–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016, 2016.
Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., Stoll, D. K., Dolan, A. M., Lunt, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Chandler, M. A.: Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 571–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-571-2011, 2011.
Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Dolan, A. M., Rowley, D., Abe-Ouchi, A.,
Otto-Bliesner, B., Chandler, M. A., Hunter, S. J., Lunt, D. J., Pound, M., and Salzmann, U.: The Pliocene model intercomparison project (PlioMIP) phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design, Clim. Past, 12, 663–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, 2016.
Haywood, A. M., Valdes, P. J., Aze, T., Barlow, N., Burke, A., Dolan, A. M.,
Von Der Heydt, A. S., Hill, D. ., Jamieson, S. S. R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Salzmann, U.: What can Palaeoclimate Modelling do for you?, Earth Syst. Environ., 3, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00093-1 , 2019.
Haywood, A. M., Tindall, J. C., Dowsett, H. J., Dolan, A. M., Foley, K. M.,
Hunter, S. J., Hill, D. J., Chan, W. L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Stepanek, C., and
Lohmann, G.: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2:
large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity, Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020.
Herbert, T. D.: 8.15 Alkenone Paleotemperature Determinations, in: Treatise on Geochemistry, edited by: Holland, H. D. and Turekian, K. K., Elsevier, Oxford, 361–378, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-095975-7.00615-X, 2014.
Herbert, T. D., Peterson, L. C., Lawrence, K. T., and Liu, Z.: Tropical ocean
temperatures over the past 3.5 million years, Science, 328, 1530–1534,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1233137, 2010.
Hill, K. L., Rintoul, S. R., Ridgway, K. R., and Oke, P. R.: Decadal changes in the South Pacific western boundary current system revealed in observations
and ocean state estimates, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C01009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005926, 2011.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jacob, D., Taylor, M., Bindi, M., Brown, S., Camilloni, I., Diedhiou, A., Djalante, R., Ebi, K. L., Engelbrecht, F., Guiot, J., Hijioka, Y., Mehrotra, S., Payne, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Thomas, A., Warren, R., and Zhou, G.: Impacts of 1.5 ∘C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems, in: Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and Waterfield, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 175–312, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.005, 2018.
Hollis, C. J., Dunkley Jones, T., Anagnostou, E., Bijl, P. K., Cramwinckel,
M. J., Cui, Y., Dickens, G. R., Edgar, K. M., Eley, Y., Evans, D., and Foster, G. L.: The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3149–3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3149-2019, 2019.
Hopmans, E. C., Weijers, J. W., Schefuß, E., Herfort, L., Damsté,
J. S. S., and Schouten, S.: A novel proxy for terrestrial organic matter in
sediments based on branched and isoprenoid tetraether lipids, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 224, 107–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.05.012, 2004.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edtited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3–33, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.001, 2022.
Karas, C., Nürnberg, D., Tiedemann, R., and Garbe-Schönberg, D.:
Pliocene climate change of the Southwest Pacific and the impact of ocean
gateways, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 301, 117–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.10.028, 2011.
Kim, J. H., Van der Meer, J., Schouten, S., Helmke, P., Willmott, V.,
Sangiorgi, F., Koç, N., Hopmans, E. C., and Damsté, J. S. S.: New
indices and calibrations derived from the distribution of crenarchaeal
isoprenoid tetraether lipids: Implications for past sea surface temperature
reconstructions, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 74, 4639–4654, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2010.05.027, 2010.
Koenig, S. J., Dolan, A. M., De Boer, B., Stone, E. J., Hill, D. J., DeConto,
R. M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Lunt, D. J., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., and Saito, F.: Ice sheet model dependency of the simulated Greenland Ice Sheet in the
mid-Pliocene, Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and
Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of
the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041335, 2004.
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P.,
Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J. C., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zhou, T.: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, 553–672, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2021.
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally
distributed benthic δ18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001071, 2005.
Lowry, D. P., Krapp, M., Golledge, N. R., and Alevropoulos-Borrill, A.: The
influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to
emerge this century, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2, 2021.
Martínez-Botí, M., Foster, G., Chalk, T., Rohling, E. J., Sexton, P. F., Lunt, D. J., Pancost, R. D., Badger, M. P. S., and Schmidt, D. N.: Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records, Nature, 518, 49–54, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14145, 2015.
Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A.,
Rouco, J.G., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T., and Osborn,
T.: Information from paleoclimate archives, in: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge
University Press, 383–464, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.013, 2013.
Max, L., Lembke–Jene, L., Zou, J., Shi, X., and Tiedemann, R.: Evaluation of
reconstructed sea surface temperatures based on U
McClymont, E. L., Elmore, A. C., Kender, S., Leng, M. J., Greaves, M., and
Elderfield, H.: Pliocene-Pleistocene evolution of sea surface and intermediate water temperatures from the Southwest Pacific, Paleoceanography, 31, 895–913, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016PA002954, 2016.
McClymont, E. L., Ford, H. L., Ho, S. L., Tindall, J. C., Haywood, A. M.,
Alonso-Garcia, M., Bailey, I., Berke, M. A., Littler, K., Patterson, M. O.
and Petrick, B.: Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from ∼3 million years ago, Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020.
McKay, R., Naish, T., Carter, L., Riesselman, C., Dunbar, R., Sjunneskog, C., Winter, D., Sangiorgi, F., Warren, C., Pagani, M., and Schouten, S.: Antarctic and Southern Ocean influences on Late Pliocene global cooling, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 6423–6428, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1112248109, 2012.
Medina-Elizalde, M. and Lea, D. W.: Late Pliocene equatorial Pacific, Paleoceanography, 25, PA001780, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009PA001780, 2010.
Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., McGlade, C., Gütschow, J., Nicholls, Z.,
Burdon, R., Cozzi, L., and Hackmann, B.: Realization of Paris Agreement
pledges may limit warming just below 2 ∘C, Nature, 604, 304–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04553-z, 2022.
Miller, K. G., Wright, J. D., Browning, J. V., Kulpecz, A., Kominz, M., Naish, T. R., Cramer, B. S., Rosenthal, Y., Peltier, W. R., and Sosdian, S.: High tide of the warm Pliocene: Implications of global sea level for Antarctic deglaciation, Geology, 40, 407–410, https://doi.org/10.1130/G32869.1, 2012.
Müller, P.J., Kirst, G., Ruhland, G., Von Storch, I., and
Rosell-Melé, A.: Calibration of the alkenone paleotemperature index
U
Naeher, S., Smittenberg, R. H., Gilli, A., Kirilova, E. P., Lotter, A. F., and Schubert, C. J.: Impact of recent lake eutrophication on microbial community changes as revealed by high resolution lipid biomarkers in Rotsee
(Switzerland), Org. Geochem., 49, 86–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2012.05.014, 2012.
Naeher, S., Niemann, H., Peterse, F., Smittenberg, R. H., Zigah, P. K., and
Schubert, C. J.: Tracing the methane cycle with lipid biomarkers in Lake
Rotsee (Switzerland), Org. Geochem., 66, 174–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2013.11.002, 2014.
Naish, T. and Zwartz, D.: Looking back to the future, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 317–318, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1504, 2012.
Naish, T., Powell, R., Levy, R., Wilson, G., Scherer, R., Talarico, F.,
Krissek, L., Niessen, F., Pompilio, M., Wilson, T., and Carter, L.: Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations, Nature, 458,
322–328, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07867, 2009.
NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds.): The Climate
Data Guide: SST data: HadiSST v1.1, https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/sst-data-hadisst-v11,
(last access: 19 June 2022), 2022.
O'Brien, C. L., Robinson, S. A., Pancost, R. D., Damsté, J. S. S., Schouten, S., Lunt, D. J., Alsenz, H., Bornemann, A., Bottini, C., Brassell, S. C., and Farnsworth, A.: Cretaceous sea-surface temperature evolution: Constraints from TEX86 and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes, Earth-Sci. Rev., 172, 224–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.012, 2017.
Ohkouchi, N., Xu, L., Reddy, C. M., Montluçon, D., and Eglinton, T. I.:
Radiocarbon dating of alkenones from marine sediments: I. Isolation protocol, Radiocarbon, 47, 401–412, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033822200035189, 2005.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J. F., Lowe, J., and Meehl, G. A.: The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for
CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Pancost, R. D., Bouloubassi, I., Aloisi, G., and Damsté, J. S. S.: Three
series of non-isoprenoidal dialkyl glycerol diethers in cold-seep carbonate crusts, Org. Geochem., 32, 695–707, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0146-6380(01)00015-8, 2001.
Patterson, M. O., McKay, R., Naish, T., Escutia, C., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J.,
Raymo, M. E., Meyers, S. R., Tauxe, L., and Brinkhuis, H.: Orbital forcing of
the East Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene, Nat. Geosci., 7, 841–847, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2273, 2014.
Patterson, M. O., McKay, R., Naish, T., Bostock, H. C., Dunbar, R., Ohneiser,
C., Woodard, S. C., Wilson, G., and Caballero-Gill, R.: A Southwest Pacific
perspective on long-term global trends in Pliocene-Pleistocene stable isotope records, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 33, 825–839, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017PA003269, 2018.
Pitcher, A., Rychlik, N., Hopmans, E. C., Spieck, E., Rijpstra, W. I. C.,
Ossebaar, J., Schouten, S., Wagner, M., and Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.:
Crenarchaeol dominates the membrane lipids of Candidatus Nitrososphaera
gargensis, a thermophilic Group I.1b Archaeon, ISME J., 4, 542–552, https://doi.org/10.1038/ismej.2009.138, 2010.
Prahl, F. G. and Wakeham, S. G.: Calibration of unsaturation patterns in
long-chain ketone compositions for palaeotemperature assessment, Nature,
330, 367–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/330367a0, 1987.
Prahl, F.G., Rontani, J. F., Zabeti, N., Walinsky, S. E., and Sparrow, M. A.:
Systematic pattern in U
Qin, W., Carlson, L. T., Armbrust, E. V., Devol, A. H., Moffett, J. W., Stahl, D. A., and Ingalls, A. E.: Confounding effects of oxygen and temperature on the TEX86 signature of marine Thaumarchaeota, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 10979–10984, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1501568112, 2015.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late
nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
Renoult, M., Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Sagoo, N., Flynn, C., Kapsch,
M.-L., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Mikolajewicz, U., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Zhang,
Q., and Mauritsen, T.: A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case
studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP, Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020.
Ridgway, K. R.: Long-term trend and decadal variability of the southward
penetration of the East Australian Current, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L13613, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030393, 2007.
Rosell-Melé, A. and Prahl, F. G.: Seasonality of U
Schouten, S., Hopmans, E. C., Schefuß, E., and Damste, J. S. S.:
Distributional variations in marine crenarchaeotal membrane lipids: a new
tool for reconstructing ancient sea water temperatures?, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 204, 265–274, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00979-2, 2002.
Schouten, S., Forster, A., Panoto, F. E., and Damsté, J. S. S.: Towards calibration of the TEX86 palaeothermometer for tropical sea surface temperatures in ancient greenhouse worlds, Org. Geochem., 38, 1537–1546, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2007.05.014, 2007.
Schouten, S., Hopmans, E. C., and Damsté, J. S. S.: The organic geochemistry of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids: A review, Org. Geochem., 54, 19–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2012.09.006, 2013.
Schuddeboom, A. J. and McDonald, A. J.: The Southern Ocean Radiative Bias,
Cloud Compensating Errors, and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6
Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2021JD035310, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035310, 2021.
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J. P., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire, A., O'connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., and Woodward, S.:
UKESM1: Description and evaluation of the UK Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 4513–4558, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739, 2019.
Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M.,
Hargreaves, J. C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E. J., Watanabe, M., Andrews, T., Branconnot, P., Bretherton, C. S., Foster, G. L., Hausfather, Z., von der Heydt, A. A., Knutti, R., Mauritsen, T., Norris, J. R., Proistosecu, C., Rugensetin, M., Schmidt, G. A., Tokarska, K. B., and Zelinka, M. D.: An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000678, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678, 2020.
Sen Gupta, A., McGregor, S., Van Sebille, E., Ganachaud, A., Brown, J. N., and Santoso, A.: Future changes to the Indonesian Throughflow and Pacific
circulation: The differing role of wind and deep circulation changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1669–1678, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067757, 2016.
Sen Gupta, A., Stellema, A., Pontes, G. M., Taschetto, A. S., Vergés, A.,
and Rossi, V.: Future changes to the upper ocean Western Boundary Currents
across two generations of climate models, Sci. Rep., 11, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88934-w, 2021.
Senior, C. A., Jones, C. G., Wood, R. A., Sellar, A., Belcher, S., Klein-Tank, A., Sutton, R., Walton, J., Lawrence, B., Andrews, T., and Mulcahy, J. P.: UK community Earth system odelling for CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002004, 2020.
Smith, R. S., Mathiot, P., Siahaan, A., Lee, V., Cornford, S. L., Gregory, J. M., Payne, A. J., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: Coupling the UK Earth System Model to dynamic models of the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 13, e2021MS002520, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002520, 2021.
Spezzaferri, S., Kucera, M., Pearson, P. N., Wade, B. S., Rappo, S., Poole, C. R., Morard, R., and Stalder, C.: Fossil and genetic evidence for the
polyphyletic nature of the planktonic foraminifera “Globigerinoides”, and
description of the new genus Trilobatus, PLoS One, 10, e0128108,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259924, 2015.
Strogen, D. P., Seebeck, H., Hines, B. R., Bland, K. J., and Crampton, J. S.:
Palaeogeographic evolution of Zealandia: mid-Cretaceous to present, NZ. J. Geol. Geophys., https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2022.2115520, 2022.
Sutton, P. J. and Bowen, M.: Ocean temperature change around New Zealand over
the last 36 years, NZ. J. Mar. Freshwater Res., 53, 305–326,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00288330.2018.1562945, 2019.
Tierney, J. E. and Tingley, M. P.: A TEX86 surface sediment database and
extended Bayesian calibration, Scient. Data, 2, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.29, 2015.
Tierney, J. E. and Tingley, M. P.: BAYSPLINE: A new calibration for the
alkenone paleothermometer, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 33, 281–301,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017PA003201, 2018.
Vihtakari M.: ggOceanMaps: Plot Data on Oceanographic Maps using `ggplot2',
GitHub [code], https://mikkovihtakari.github.io/ggOceanMaps/ (last access: 16 June 2022), 2022.
Volodin, E. M., Mortikov, E. V., Kostrykin, S. V., Galin, V. Y., Lykossov, V. N., Gritsun, A. S., Diansky, N. A., Gusev, A. V., Iakovlev, N. G., Shestakova, A. A., and Emelina, S. V.: Simulation of the modern climate using the INM-CM48 climate model. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Model., 33, 367–374, https://doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2018-0032, 2018.
Williams, J., Morgenstern, O., Varma, V., Behrens, E., Hayek, W., Oliver, H., Dean, S., Mullan, B., and Frame, D.: Development of the New Zealand Earth
System Model, Weather and Clim., 36, 25–44, 2016.
Williams, J., Behrens, E., Morgenstern, O., Teixeira, J. C., Varma, V., and
Hayek, W.: Regional ocean grid refinement and its effect on simulated
atmospheric climate, ESS Open Archive, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167642236.61101960/v1, 2023.
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M.,
Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020.
Zhang, Y. G., Zhang, C. L., Liu, X. L., Li, L., Hinrichs, K. U., and Noakes,
J. E.: Methane Index: A tetraether archaeal lipid biomarker indicator for
detecting the instability of marine gas hydrates, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 307, 525–534, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.05.031, 2011.
Zhu, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Poulsen, C. J., Tierney, J. E.,
Lofverstrom, M., and DiNezio, P.: Assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model version 2 through simulation
of the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091220, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091220, 2021.
Short summary
Regional warming will differ from global warming, and climate models perform poorly in the Southern Ocean. We reconstruct sea surface temperatures in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene, a time 3 million years ago that represents the long-term outcomes of 3 °C warming, which is expected for the future. Comparing these results to climate model simulations, we show that the south-west Pacific region will warm by 1 °C above the global average if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm.
Regional warming will differ from global warming, and climate models perform poorly in the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint