Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
Research article
 | 
13 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 13 Jul 2023

Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications

Georgia R. Grant, Jonny H. T. Williams, Sebastian Naeher, Osamu Seki, Erin L. McClymont, Molly O. Patterson, Alan M. Haywood, Erik Behrens, Masanobu Yamamoto, and Katelyn Johnson

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Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/1163, last access: 16 June 2022. 
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Behrens, E., Williams, J., Morgenstern, O., Sutton, P., Rickard, G., and Williams, M. J.: Local grid refinement in New Zealand's earth system model: Tasman Sea ocean circulation improvements and super-gyre circulation implications, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001996, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001996, 2020. 
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Short summary
Regional warming will differ from global warming, and climate models perform poorly in the Southern Ocean. We reconstruct sea surface temperatures in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene, a time 3 million years ago that represents the long-term outcomes of 3 °C warming, which is expected for the future. Comparing these results to climate model simulations, we show that the south-west Pacific region will warm by 1 °C above the global average if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm.