Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jul 2023
Research article |
| 13 Jul 2023
| 13 Jul 2023
Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Jonny H. T. Williams
NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand
Sebastian Naeher
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Osamu Seki
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
Erin L. McClymont
Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
Molly O. Patterson
Environmental Studies, Binghamton University, SUNY, Binghamton, New York, United States of America
Alan M. Haywood
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Erik Behrens
NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand
Masanobu Yamamoto
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
Katelyn Johnson
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Related authors
No articles found.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) cause the Southern Ocean surface to become fresher and warmer, which affects the global ocean circulation. The CO2 concentration and the smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet both have a similar and approximately equal impact on the Southern Ocean. The conditions of the Southern Ocean in the mid-Pliocene could therefore be analogous to those in a future climate with smaller ice sheets.
Tobias Roylands, Robert G. Hilton, Erin L. McClymont, Mark H. Garnett, Guillaume Soulet, Sébastien Klotz, Mathis Degler, Felipe Napoleoni, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 271–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-271-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-271-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical weathering of sedimentary rocks can release carbon dioxide and consume oxygen. We present a new field-based method to measure the exchange of these gases in real time, which allows us to directly compare the amount of reactants and products. By studying two sites with different rock types, we show that the chemical composition is an important factor in driving the weathering reactions. Locally, the carbon dioxide release changes alongside temperature and precipitation.
Yusuf A. Bhatti, Laura E. Revell, Alex J. Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, Alex T. Archibald, Jonny Williams, Abhijith U. Venugopal, Catherine Hardacre, and Erik Behrens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15181–15196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are a large source of uncertainty over the Southern Ocean. A dominant source of sulfate aerosol in this region is dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is poorly simulated by climate models. We show the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric DMS to the choice of oceanic DMS data set and emission scheme. We show that oceanic DMS has twice the influence on atmospheric DMS than the emission scheme. Simulating DMS more accurately in climate models will help to constrain aerosol uncertainty.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Erin L. McClymont, Sze Ling Ho, and Heather L. Ford
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-98, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
The Pliocene (~3 million years ago) is of interest because its warm climate is similar to projections of the future. We explore the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide in forcing patterns of sea surface temperature during the Pliocene by combining climate model outputs with palaeoclimate proxy data. We investigate whether this role changes seasonally, and also use our data to suggest a new estimate of Pliocene climate sensitivity. More data are needed to further explore the results presented.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, Erin McClymont, and Sze Ling Ho
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1941, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, representing the period roughly 3.2 million years before the present day. We estimate that the globally averaged mean temperature was around 3.6 °C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times, but there is significant uncertainty on this value.
Jonny Williams, Erik Behrens, Olaf Morgenstern, Peter Gibson, and Joao Teixeira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use open-source cyclone tracking software and state-of-the-art climate models to characterise present-day tropical cyclones – TCs – in the South Pacific before moving on to estimate how they may change in the future. A robust result of this work is the projection of future intensification of TCs. However, the question of their future occurrence frequency is less clear. Under extreme future warming scenarios, we postulate a possible increase in power dissipation per TC of up to 25 %.
Bjørg Risebrobakken, Mari F. Jensen, Helene R. Langehaug, Tor Eldevik, Anne Britt Sandø, Camille Li, Andreas Born, Erin Louise McClymont, Ulrich Salzmann, and Stijn De Schepper
Clim. Past, 19, 1101–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the observational period, spatially coherent sea surface temperatures characterize the northern North Atlantic at multidecadal timescales. We show that spatially non-coherent temperature patterns are seen both in further projections and a past warm climate period with a CO2 level comparable to the future low-emission scenario. Buoyancy forcing is shown to be important for northern North Atlantic temperature patterns.
Xiaofang Huang, Shiling Yang, Alan Haywood, Julia Tindall, Dabang Jiang, Yongda Wang, Minmin Sun, and Shihao Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 731–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-731-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-731-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The sensitivity of climate to the height changes of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) during the mid-Pliocene has been assessed using the HadCM3 model. The results show that the height reduction of the EAIS leads to a warmer and wetter East Antarctica. However, unintuitively, both the surface air temperature and the sea surface temperature decrease over the rest of the globe. These findings could provide insights into future changes caused by warming-induced decay of the Antarctic ice sheet.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm climates of the Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) are similar to projections of the near future. We find elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide to be the most important forcing for driving changes in Pliocene surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation. However, changes caused by the nature of Pliocene ice sheets and orography are also important, affecting the extent to which we can use the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future.
James A. Smith, Louise Callard, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Maria Luisa Sánchez-Montes, Timothy P. Lane, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Erin L. McClymont, Christopher M. Darvill, Brice R. Rea, Colm O'Cofaigh, Pauline Gulliver, Werner Ehrmann, Richard S. Jones, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1247–1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at an accelerating rate. To understand the significance of these changes we reconstruct the history of one of its fringing ice shelves, known as 79° N ice shelf. We show that the ice shelf disappeared 8500 years ago, following a period of enhanced warming. An important implication of our study is that 79° N ice shelf is susceptible to collapse when atmospheric and ocean temperatures are ~2°C warmer than present, which could occur by the middle of this century.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Ulrich Salzmann, Aisling M. Dolan, and Tamara Fletcher
Clim. Past, 18, 1385–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene (MP; ∼3.0 Ma) had CO2 levels similar to today and average temperatures ∼3°C warmer. At terrestrial high latitudes, MP temperatures from climate models are much lower than those reconstructed from data. This mismatch occurs in the winter but not the summer. The winter model–data mismatch likely has multiple causes. One novel cause is that the MP climate may be outside the modern sample, and errors could occur when using information from the modern era to reconstruct climate.
Christopher J. Hollis, Sebastian Naeher, Christopher D. Clowes, B. David A. Naafs, Richard D. Pancost, Kyle W. R. Taylor, Jenny Dahl, Xun Li, G. Todd Ventura, and Richard Sykes
Clim. Past, 18, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies of Paleogene greenhouse climates identified short-lived global warming events, termed hyperthermals, that provide insights into global warming scenarios. Within the same time period, we have identified a short-lived cooling event in the late Paleocene, which we term a hypothermal, that has potential to provide novel insights into the feedback mechanisms at work in a greenhouse climate.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Molly O. Patterson, Richard H. Levy, Denise K. Kulhanek, Tina van de Flierdt, Huw Horgan, Gavin B. Dunbar, Timothy R. Naish, Jeanine Ash, Alex Pyne, Darcy Mandeno, Paul Winberry, David M. Harwood, Fabio Florindo, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Andreas Läufer, Kyu-Cheul Yoo, Osamu Seki, Paolo Stocchi, Johann P. Klages, Jae Il Lee, Florence Colleoni, Yusuke Suganuma, Edward Gasson, Christian Ohneiser, José-Abel Flores, David Try, Rachel Kirkman, Daleen Koch, and the SWAIS 2C Science Team
Sci. Dril., 30, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
How much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt and how quickly it will happen when average global temperatures exceed 2 °C is currently unknown. Given the far-reaching and international consequences of Antarctica’s future contribution to global sea level rise, the SWAIS 2C Project was developed in order to better forecast the size and timing of future changes.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Charles J. R. Williams, Alistair A. Sellar, Xin Ren, Alan M. Haywood, Peter Hopcroft, Stephen J. Hunter, William H. G. Roberts, Robin S. Smith, Emma J. Stone, Julia C. Tindall, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 2139–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from a simulation of the mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) using the latest version of the UK’s climate model. The simulation reproduces temperatures as expected and shows some improvement relative to previous versions of the same model. The simulation is, however, arguably too warm when compared to other models and available observations.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Daniel J. Lunt, Deepak Chandan, Alan M. Haywood, George M. Lunt, Jonathan C. Rougier, Ulrich Salzmann, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4307–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Often in science we carry out experiments with computers in which several factors are explored, for example, in the field of climate science, how the factors of greenhouse gases, ice, and vegetation affect temperature. We can explore the relative importance of these factors by
swapping in and outdifferent values of these factors, and can also carry out experiments with many different combinations of these factors. This paper discusses how best to analyse the results from such experiments.
Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Erin L. McClymont, Nicole J. Bale, Ellen C. Hopmans, Stefan Schouten, Juliane Müller, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Claire Allen, Torsten Bickert, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Elaine Mawbey, Victoria Peck, Aleksandra Svalova, and James A. Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 3485–3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3485-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ocean temperature records are needed to fully understand the impact of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are powerful tools for reconstructing ocean temperature but can be difficult to apply to the Southern Ocean. Our results show active GDGT synthesis in relatively warm depths of the ocean. This research improves the application of GDGT palaeoceanographic proxies in the Southern Ocean.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Kalli Furtado, Paul Field, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a simple parametrisation whereby the immersion freezing temperature in the model is linked to the mineral dust distribution through a diagnostic function, thus invoking regional differences in the nucleation temperatures instead of the global default value of −10 °C. This provides a functionality to mimic the role of Ice Nucleating Particles in the atmosphere on influencing the short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean region by impacting the cloud phase.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Kate E. Ashley, Robert McKay, Johan Etourneau, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Alan Condron, Anna Albot, Xavier Crosta, Christina Riesselman, Osamu Seki, Guillaume Massé, Nicholas R. Golledge, Edward Gasson, Daniel P. Lowry, Nicholas E. Barrand, Katelyn Johnson, Nancy Bertler, Carlota Escutia, Robert Dunbar, and James A. Bendle
Clim. Past, 17, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability off East Antarctica. Our record shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene (~ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth, which slowed basal ice shelf melting.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Field, Kalli Furtado, Jonny Williams, and Patrick Hyder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7741–7751, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The present generation of global climate models has an insufficiently reflected short-wave radiation, especially over the Southern Ocean. This leads to an excessive heating of the ocean surface in the model, creating sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. Misrepresentation of clouds could be attributed to this radiation bias; we try to address this issue by slowing the growth rate of ice crystals and improving the supercooled liquid clouds in the model.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Richard Betts, Ben Booth, Peter Challenor, Peter Good, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2487–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the climate model FAMOUS, matching the modelled Amazon rainforest to observations required different land surface parameter settings than for other forests. It was unclear if this discrepancy was due to a bias in the modelled climate or an error in the land surface component of the model. Correcting the climate of the model with a statistical model corrects the simulation of the Amazon forest, suggesting that the land surface component of the model is not the source of the discrepancy.
Maria Luisa Sánchez-Montes, Erin L. McClymont, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Juliane Müller, Ellen A. Cowan, and Coralie Zorzi
Clim. Past, 16, 299–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present new climate reconstructions in SW Alaska from recovered marine sediments in the Gulf of Alaska. We find that glaciers reached the Gulf of Alaska during a cooling climate 2.9 million years ago, and after that the Cordilleran Ice Sheet continued growing during a global drop in atmospheric CO2 levels. Cordilleran Ice Sheet growth could have been supported by an increase in heat supply to the SW Alaska and warm ocean evaporation–mountain precipitation mechanisms.
Ambarish Pokhrel, Kimitaka Kawamura, Bhagawati Kunwar, Kaori Ono, Akane Tsushima, Osamu Seki, Sumio Matoba, and Takayuki Shiraiwa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 597–612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-597-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A 180 m long (ca. 274 year) ice core was drilled in the saddle of the Aurora Peak in Alaska (63.52° N, 146.54° W; elevation: 2,825 m). The ice core samples were derived with O-bis-(trimethylsilyl)trifluoroacetamide with 1 % trimethylsilyl chloride and pyridine followed by gas-chromatography–mass-spectrometry analyses. Levoglucosan, dehydroabietic acid and vanillic acid are reported for the first time from the alpine glacier to better understand historical biomass burning.
Laura E. Revell, Stefanie Kremser, Sean Hartery, Mike Harvey, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, Olaf Morgenstern, Adrian J. McDonald, Vidya Varma, Leroy Bird, and Alex Schuddeboom
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15447–15466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols over the Southern Ocean consist primarily of sea salt and sulfate, yet are seasonally biased in our model. We test three sulfate chemistry schemes to investigate DMS oxidation, which forms sulfate aerosol. Simulated cloud droplet number concentrations improve using more complex sulfate chemistry. We also show that a new sea spray aerosol source function, developed from measurements made on a recent Southern Ocean research voyage, improves the model's simulation of aerosol optical depth.
Stephen J. Hunter, Alan M. Haywood, Aisling M. Dolan, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 15, 1691–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1691-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1691-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we model climate of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; ~3 million years ago), a geological analogue for contemporary climate. Using the HadCM3 climate model, we show how changes in CO2 and geography contributed to mPWP climate. We find mPWP warmth focussed in the high latitudes, geography-driven precipitation changes, complex changes in sea surface temperature and intensified overturning in the North Atlantic (AMOC).
Nancy A. N. Bertler, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Daniel B. Emanuelsson, Mai Winstrup, Paul T. Vallelonga, James E. Lee, Ed J. Brook, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Taylor J. Fudge, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Peter D. Neff, Thomas Blunier, Ross Edwards, Paul A. Mayewski, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Christo Buizert, Silvia Canessa, Ruzica Dadic, Helle A. Kjær, Andrei Kurbatov, Dongqi Zhang, Edwin D. Waddington, Giovanni Baccolo, Thomas Beers, Hannah J. Brightley, Lionel Carter, David Clemens-Sewall, Viorela G. Ciobanu, Barbara Delmonte, Lukas Eling, Aja Ellis, Shruthi Ganesh, Nicholas R. Golledge, Skylar Haines, Michael Handley, Robert L. Hawley, Chad M. Hogan, Katelyn M. Johnson, Elena Korotkikh, Daniel P. Lowry, Darcy Mandeno, Robert M. McKay, James A. Menking, Timothy R. Naish, Caroline Noerling, Agathe Ollive, Anaïs Orsi, Bernadette C. Proemse, Alexander R. Pyne, Rebecca L. Pyne, James Renwick, Reed P. Scherer, Stefanie Semper, Marius Simonsen, Sharon B. Sneed, Eric J. Steig, Andrea Tuohy, Abhijith Ulayottil Venugopal, Fernando Valero-Delgado, Janani Venkatesh, Feitang Wang, Shimeng Wang, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Arran Whiteford, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, and Xin Zhang
Clim. Past, 14, 193–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature and snow accumulation records from the annually dated Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core show that for the past 2 700 years, the eastern Ross Sea warmed, while the western Ross Sea showed no trend and West Antarctica cooled. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. Now all three regions show concurrent warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Paul J. Valdes, Edward Armstrong, Marcus P. S. Badger, Catherine D. Bradshaw, Fran Bragg, Michel Crucifix, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Jonathan J. Day, Alex Farnsworth, Chris Gordon, Peter O. Hopcroft, Alan T. Kennedy, Natalie S. Lord, Dan J. Lunt, Alice Marzocchi, Louise M. Parry, Vicky Pope, William H. G. Roberts, Emma J. Stone, Gregory J. L. Tourte, and Jonny H. T. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3715–3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the family of climate models used by the BRIDGE research group at the University of Bristol as well as by various other institutions. These models are based on the UK Met Office HadCM3 models and here we describe the various modifications which have been made as well as the key features of a number of configurations in use.
Paul E. Bachem, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, and Erin L. McClymont
Clim. Past, 13, 1153–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1153-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1153-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a high-resolution multi-proxy study of the Norwegian Sea, covering the 5.33 to 3.14 Ma time window within the Pliocene. We show that large-scale climate transitions took place during this warmer than modern time, most likely in response to ocean gateway transformations. Strong warming at 4.0 Ma in the Norwegian Sea, when regions closer to Greenland cooled, indicate that increased northward ocean heat transport may be compatible with expanding glaciation and Arctic sea ice growth.
María Fernanda Sánchez Goñi, Stéphanie Desprat, Anne-Laure Daniau, Frank C. Bassinot, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Sandy P. Harrison, Judy R. M. Allen, R. Scott Anderson, Hermann Behling, Raymonde Bonnefille, Francesc Burjachs, José S. Carrión, Rachid Cheddadi, James S. Clark, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Colin. J. Courtney Mustaphi, Georg H. Debusk, Lydie M. Dupont, Jemma M. Finch, William J. Fletcher, Marco Giardini, Catalina González, William D. Gosling, Laurie D. Grigg, Eric C. Grimm, Ryoma Hayashi, Karin Helmens, Linda E. Heusser, Trevor Hill, Geoffrey Hope, Brian Huntley, Yaeko Igarashi, Tomohisa Irino, Bonnie Jacobs, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Sayuri Kawai, A. Peter Kershaw, Fujio Kumon, Ian T. Lawson, Marie-Pierre Ledru, Anne-Marie Lézine, Ping Mei Liew, Donatella Magri, Robert Marchant, Vasiliki Margari, Francis E. Mayle, G. Merna McKenzie, Patrick Moss, Stefanie Müller, Ulrich C. Müller, Filipa Naughton, Rewi M. Newnham, Tadamichi Oba, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Roberta Pini, Cesare Ravazzi, Katy H. Roucoux, Stephen M. Rucina, Louis Scott, Hikaru Takahara, Polichronis C. Tzedakis, Dunia H. Urrego, Bas van Geel, B. Guido Valencia, Marcus J. Vandergoes, Annie Vincens, Cathy L. Whitlock, Debra A. Willard, and Masanobu Yamamoto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 679–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) plotted against a common chronology; 32 also provide charcoal records. The database allows for the reconstruction of the regional expression, vegetation and fire of past abrupt climate changes that are comparable to those expected in the 21st century. This work is a major contribution to understanding the processes behind rapid climate change.
Masanobu Yamamoto, Seung-Il Nam, Leonid Polyak, Daisuke Kobayashi, Kenta Suzuki, Tomohisa Irino, and Koji Shimada
Clim. Past, 13, 1111–1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1111-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Based on mineral records from the northern Chukchi Sea, we report a long-term decline in the Beaufort Gyre (BG) strength during the Holocene, consistent with a decrease in summer insolation. Multi-centennial variability in BG circulation is consistent with fluctuations in solar irradiance. The Bering Strait inflow shows intensification during the middle Holocene, associated with sea-ice retreat and an increase in marine production in the Chukchi Sea, which is attributed to a weaker Aleutian Low.
Yu-Hyeon Park, Masanobu Yamamoto, Leonid Polyak, and Seung-Il Nam
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-529, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-529, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of microbial lipid (GDGTs) in three sediment cores from the northern Chukchi Sea margin provides insights into GDGTs production, sources and SST in this region of the Arctic during the Holocene. Different patterns in GDGTs distribution between cores may indicate spatial differences in the pathways of Pacific waters and sea-ice extent. TEX86 and TEX86L indices potentially useful for SST reconstruction show millennial-scale variability, but the controls are not well understood.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model.
We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon.
We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
Masanobu Yamamoto, Seung Il Nam, Leonid Polyak, Daisuke Kobayashi, Kenta Suzuki, Tomohisa Irino, and Koji Shimada
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-105, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We report mineral records in two sediment cores from the northern Chukchi Sea providing insights into the long-term dynamics of the Arctic currents during the Holocene. We found a long-term decline in the BG strength, consistent with decrease in summer insolation. The millennial to multi-centennial variability is consistent with fluctuations in solar irradiance. The BSI shows intensification during the middle Holocene, which is attributed to a weak Aleutian Low.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
T. Ajioka, M. Yamamoto, K. Takemura, A. Hayashida, and H. Kitagawa
Clim. Past, 10, 1843–1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1843-2014, 2014
L.-J. Shiau, S. C. Clemens, M.-T. Chen, M. Yamamoto, and Y. Yokoyama
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-10-1857-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-10-1857-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
J. Friedrich, F. Janssen, D. Aleynik, H. W. Bange, N. Boltacheva, M. N. Çagatay, A. W. Dale, G. Etiope, Z. Erdem, M. Geraga, A. Gilli, M. T. Gomoiu, P. O. J. Hall, D. Hansson, Y. He, M. Holtappels, M. K. Kirf, M. Kononets, S. Konovalov, A. Lichtschlag, D. M. Livingstone, G. Marinaro, S. Mazlumyan, S. Naeher, R. P. North, G. Papatheodorou, O. Pfannkuche, R. Prien, G. Rehder, C. J. Schubert, T. Soltwedel, S. Sommer, H. Stahl, E. V. Stanev, A. Teaca, A. Tengberg, C. Waldmann, B. Wehrli, and F. Wenzhöfer
Biogeosciences, 11, 1215–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1215-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1215-2014, 2014
M. J. Pound, J. Tindall, S. J. Pickering, A. M. Haywood, H. J. Dowsett, and U. Salzmann
Clim. Past, 10, 167–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-167-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-167-2014, 2014
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
M. Yamamoto, H. Sai, M.-T. Chen, and M. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 2777–2788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2777-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2777-2013, 2013
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
S. Naeher, M. Geraga, G. Papatheodorou, G. Ferentinos, H. Kaberi, and C. J. Schubert
Biogeosciences, 9, 5081–5094, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5081-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5081-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Marine Archives | Timescale: Cenozoic
Bayesian multi-proxy reconstruction of early Eocene latitudinal temperature gradients
Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene
The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling patterns of sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene
Sea surface temperature evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean across the Eocene–Oligocene transition
The Eocene–Oligocene transition: a review of marine and terrestrial proxy data, models and model–data comparisons
DeepMIP: model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data
The middle to late Eocene greenhouse climate modelled using the CESM 1.0.5
Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions
Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity?
Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation
On the effect of orbital forcing on mid-Pliocene climate, vegetation and ice sheets
Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project
A model–data comparison for a multi-model ensemble of early Eocene atmosphere–ocean simulations: EoMIP
Kilian Eichenseer and Lewis A. Jones
Clim. Past, 20, 349–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale palaeoclimate reconstructions are often based on sparse and unevenly sampled records, inviting potential biases. Here, we present a Bayesian hierarchical model that combines geochemical with ecological proxy data to model the latitudinal sea surface temperature gradient. Applying this model to the early Eocene climatic optimum highlights how our integrated approach can improve palaeoclimate reconstructions from datasets with limited sampling.
Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 20, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-77-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-77-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces the possibility and consequences of monsoons on Antarctica in the warm Eocene climate. We suggest that such a monsoonal climate can be important to understand conditions in Antarctica prior to large-scale glaciation. We can explain seemingly contradictory indications of ice and vegetation on the continent through regional variability. In addition, we provide a new mechanism through which most of Antarctica remained ice-free through a wide range of global climatic changes.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Erin L. McClymont, Sze Ling Ho, and Heather L. Ford
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-98, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
The Pliocene (~3 million years ago) is of interest because its warm climate is similar to projections of the future. We explore the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide in forcing patterns of sea surface temperature during the Pliocene by combining climate model outputs with palaeoclimate proxy data. We investigate whether this role changes seasonally, and also use our data to suggest a new estimate of Pliocene climate sensitivity. More data are needed to further explore the results presented.
Kasia K. Śliwińska, Helen K. Coxall, David K. Hutchinson, Diederik Liebrand, Stefan Schouten, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 19, 123–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a sea surface temperature record from the Labrador Sea (ODP Site 647) based on organic geochemical proxies across the late Eocene and early Oligocene. Our study reveals heterogenic cooling of the Atlantic. The cooling of the North Atlantic is difficult to reconcile with the active Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We discuss possible explanations like uncertainty in the data, paleogeography and atmospheric CO2 boundary conditions, model weaknesses, and AMOC activity.
David K. Hutchinson, Helen K. Coxall, Daniel J. Lunt, Margret Steinthorsdottir, Agatha M. de Boer, Michiel Baatsen, Anna von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Lutz Kunzmann, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Caroline H. Lear, Karolin Moraweck, Paul N. Pearson, Emanuela Piga, Matthew J. Pound, Ulrich Salzmann, Howie D. Scher, Willem P. Sijp, Kasia K. Śliwińska, Paul A. Wilson, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 269–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Eocene–Oligocene transition was a major climate cooling event from a largely ice-free world to the first major glaciation of Antarctica, approximately 34 million years ago. This paper reviews observed changes in temperature, CO2 and ice sheets from marine and land-based records at this time. We present a new model–data comparison of this transition and find that CO2-forced cooling provides the best explanation of the observed global temperature changes.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Michiel Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Michael A. Kliphuis, Peter K. Bijl, Appy Sluijs, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 16, 2573–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2573-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2573-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Warm climates of the deep past have proven to be challenging to reconstruct with the same numerical models used for future predictions. We present results of CESM simulations for the middle to late Eocene (∼ 38 Ma), in which we managed to match the available indications of temperature well. With these results we can now look into regional features and the response to external changes to ultimately better understand the climate when it is in such a warm state.
Youichi Kamae, Kohei Yoshida, and Hiroaki Ueda
Clim. Past, 12, 1619–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1619-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations conducted in previous studies tended to underestimate the late-Pliocene higher-latitude warming suggested by proxy evidences. We explore how prescribed trace gases, ice sheets, vegetation, lakes and orography affect the Pliocene climate simulation based on a protocol of the PlioMIP Phase 2. The revised boundary forcing data lead to amplified higher-latitude warming that is qualitatively consistent with the paleoenvironment reconstructions.
J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan
Clim. Past, 12, 1591–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3 million years ago, was the most recent interval with high greenhouse gases. By modelling the period with the same models used for future projections, we can link the past and future climates. Here we use data from the mid-Pliocene to produce a tentative result for equilibrium climate sensitivity. We show that there are considerable uncertainties that strongly influence the result, but we are optimistic that these may be reduced in the next few years.
Daniel J. Lunt, Alex Farnsworth, Claire Loptson, Gavin L. Foster, Paul Markwick, Charlotte L. O'Brien, Richard D. Pancost, Stuart A. Robinson, and Neil Wrobel
Clim. Past, 12, 1181–1198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the influence of changing geography from the period ~ 150 million years ago to ~ 35 million years ago, using a set of 19 climate model simulations. We find that without any CO2 change, the global mean temperature is remarkably constant, but that regionally there are significant changes in temperature which we link back to changes in ocean circulation. Finally, we explore the implications of our findings for the interpretation of geological indicators of past temperatures.
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
D. J. Lunt, T. Dunkley Jones, M. Heinemann, M. Huber, A. LeGrande, A. Winguth, C. Loptson, J. Marotzke, C. D. Roberts, J. Tindall, P. Valdes, and C. Winguth
Clim. Past, 8, 1717–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1717-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1717-2012, 2012
Cited articles
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/1163, last access: 16 June 2022.
Batchelor, C. L., Margold, M., Krapp, M., Murton, D. K., Dalton, A. S.,
Gibbard, P. L., Stokes, C. R., Murton, J. B., and Manica, A.: The configuration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Quaternary, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11601-2, 2019.
Behrens, E., Fernandez, D., and Sutton, P.: Meridional oceanic heat transport
influences marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea on interannual to decadal
timescales, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 228, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00228, 2019.
Behrens, E., Williams, J., Morgenstern, O., Sutton, P., Rickard, G., and
Williams, M. J.: Local grid refinement in New Zealand's earth system model:
Tasman Sea ocean circulation improvements and super-gyre circulation
implications, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001996, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001996, 2020.
Behrens, E., Rickard, G., Rosier, S., Williams, J., Morgenstern, O., and
Stone, D.: Projections of Future Marine Heatwaves for the Oceans Around New
Zealand Using New Zealand's Earth System Model, Front. Climate, 4, 798287,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.798287, 2022.
Benaglia, T., Chauveau, D., Hunter, D. R., and Young, D. S.: mixtools: an R package for analyzing mixture models, J. Stat. Softw., 32, 1–29, 2010.
Bertram, R. A., Wilson, D. J., van de Flierdt, T., McKay, R. M., Patterson,
M. O., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., Escutia, C., Duke, G. C., Taylor-Silva, B. I., and Riesselman, C. R.: Pliocene deglacial event timelines and the biogeochemical response offshore Wilkes Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 494, 109–116, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0501-8, 2018.
Bostock, H. C., Hayward, B. W., Neil, H. L., Sabaa, A. T., and Scott, G. H.:
Changes in the position of the Subtropical Front south of New Zealand since
the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 30, 824–844, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014PA002652, 2015.
Burke, K. D., Williams, J. W., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., and Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 13288–13293, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809600115, 2018.
Caballero-Gill, R. P., Herbert, T. D., and Dowsett, H. J.: 100-kyr paced climate change in the Pliocene warm period, Southwest Pacific, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclim., 34, 524–545, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018PA003496, 2019.
Carter, R. M., McCave, I. N., and Carter, L.: Leg 181 synthesis: fronts, flows, drifts, volcanoes, and the evolution of the southwestern gateway to
the Pacific Ocean, eastern New Zealand, in: Proc. ODP, Sci. Results, 181, edited by: Richter, C., Ocean Drilling Program, College Station, TX, 1–111,
https://doi.org/10.2973/odp.proc.sr.181.210.2004, 2004.
Chalk, T. B., Hain, M. P., Foster, G. L., Rohling, E. J., Sexton, P. F., Badger, M. P., Cherry, S. G., Hasenfratz, A. P., Haug, G. H., Jaccard, S. L., and Martínez–García, A.: Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, 13114–13119,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1702143114, 2017.
Chen, L., Cao, L., Zhou, Z., Zhang, D., and Liao, J.: A New Globally Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Dataset since 1900, J. Meteorol. Res., 35, 911–925, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-021-1098-7, 2021.
Chiswell, S. M.: Atmospheric wavenumber-4 driven South Pacific marine heat
waves and marine cool spells, Nat. Commun., 12, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25160-y, 2021.
Chiswell, S. M., Bostock, H. C., Sutton, P. J., and Williams, M. J.: Physical
oceanography of the deep seas around New Zealand: a review, NZ. J. Mar. Freshwater Res., 49, 286–317, https://doi.org/10.1080/00288330.2014.992918, 2015.
Conte, M. H., Sicre, M. A., Rühlemann, C., Weber, J. C., Schulte, S.,
Schulz-Bull, D., and Blanz, T.: Global temperature calibration of the
alkenone unsaturation index (U
Cook, C. P., Van De Flierdt, T., Williams, T., Hemming, S. R., Iwai, M.,
Kobayashi, M., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., Escutia, C., González, J. J., Khim,
B. K., and McKay, R. M.: Dynamic behaviour of the East Antarctic ice sheet
during Pliocene warmth, Nat. Geosci., 6, 765–769, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1889, 2013.
Cortese, G., Dunbar, G. B., Carter, L., Scott, G., Bostock, H., Bowen, M., Crundwell, M., Hayward, B. W., Howard, W., Martínez, J. I., and Moy, A.: Southwest Pacific Ocean response to a warmer world: insights from Marine Isotope Stage 5e, Paleoceanography, 28, 585–598, https://doi.org/10.1002/palo.20052, 2013.
Cortese, G., Dunbar, G. B., Carter, L., Scott, G., Bostock, H., Bowen, M.,
Crundwell, M., Hayward, B. W., Hargreaves, J. C., and Annan, J. D.: Could the
Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity?, Clim. Past, 12, 1591–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016, 2016.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier,
A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., and Hannay, C.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020.
De Bar, M. W., Rampen, S. W., Hopmans, E. C., Damsté, J. S. S., and Schouten, S.: Constraining the applicability of organic paleotemperature proxies for the last 90 Myrs, Org. Geochem., 128, 122–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2018.12.005, 2019.
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future
sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016.
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez,
N., Sadai, S., Condron, A., Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., and Kopp, R. E.: The
Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica, Nature,
593, 83–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0, 2021.
De La Vega, E., Chalk, T. B., Wilson, P. A., Bysani, R. P., and Foster, G. L.: Atmospheric CO2 during the Mid–Piacenzian Warm Period and the M2 glaciation, Sci. Rep., 10, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67154-8, 2020.
Dennison, F., Keeble, J., Morgenstern, O., Zeng, G., Abraham, N. L., and Yang,X.: Improvements to stratospheric chemistry scheme in the UM-UKCA (v10.7) model: solar cycle and heterogeneous reactions, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1227–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019 , 2019.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Sörensson, A. A., Almazroui, M., Dosio, A., Gutowski, W. J., Haarsma, R., Hamdi, R., Hewitson, B., Kwon, W.-T., Lamptey, B. L., Maraun, D., Stephenson, T. S., Takayabu, I., Terray, L., Turner, A., and Zuo, Z.: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1363–1512, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.012, 2021.
Dowsett, H., Dolan, A., Rowley, D., Moucha, R., Forte, A. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Pound, M., Salzmann, U., Robinson, M., Chandler, M., and Foley, K.: The
PRISM4 (mid–Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction, Clim. Past, 12,
1519–1538., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1519-2016, 2016.
Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., Stoll, D. K., Foley, K. M., Johnson, A. L.,
Williams, M., and Riesselman, C. R.: The PRISM (Pliocene palaeoclimate)
reconstruction: time for a paradigm shift, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 371, 20120524, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0524, 2013.
Dunkley Jones, T., Eley, Y. L., Thomson, W., Greene, S. E., Mandel, I., Edgar, K., and Bendle, J. A.: OPTiMAL: A new machine learning approach for
GDGT–based palaeothermometry, Clim. Past, 16, 2599–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2599-2020, 2020.
Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto,
R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349, aaa4019, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4019, 2015.
Elling, F. J., Könneke, M., Lipp, J. S., Becker, K. W., Gagen, E. J., and
Hinrichs, K. U.: Effects of growth phase on the membrane lipid composition
of the thaumarchaeon Nitrosopumilus maritimus and their implications for
archaeal lipid distributions in the marine environment, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 141, 579–597, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2014.07.005, 2014.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E:. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Exon, N. F., Kennett, J. P., Malone, M. J., and the Shipboard Scientific Party: The Tasmanian Gateway: Cenozoic climatic and oceanographic development sites 1168-1172, Proc. ODP, Init. Repts., 189,
Ocean Drilling Program, College Station, TX, https://doi.org/10.2973/odp.proc.ir.189.2001, 2001.
Fischer, H., Meissner, K. J., Mix, A. C., et al.: Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 ∘C anthropogenic warming and beyond, Nat. Geosci., 11, 474–485, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0, 2018.
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame,
D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021.
Golledge, N. R., Keller, E. D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K. A., Bernales, J.,
Trusel, L. D., and Edwards, T. L.: Global environmental consequences of
twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt, Nature, 566, 65–72, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9, 2019.
Grant, G.: 83767IODP, International Ocean Discovery Program core repository at Kochi Core Centre, LIMS Online Report Portal [sample], https://web.iodp.tamu.edu/LORE/ (last access: 11 July 2023), 2020.
Grant, G.: Data tables associated with manuscript “Grant et al., Regional amplified warming in the Southwest Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma)”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7935217, 2022.
Grant, G.: GRG-GNS/Pliocene-SST-Southwest-Pacific: Publication release Grant et al., 2023 Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (v1.0.script), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8125899, 2023.
Grant, G. and Naish, T.: Pliocene sea–level revisited: is there more than
meets the eye?, PAGES Magazine, 29, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.29.1.34, 2021.
Grant, G. R., Naish, T. R., Dunbar, G. B., Stocchi, P., Kominz, M. A., Kamp,
P. J., Tapia, C. A., McKay, R. M., Levy, R. H., and Patterson, M. O.: The
amplitude and origin of sea–level variability during the Pliocene epoch, Nature, 574, 237–241, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1619-z, 2019.
Hargreaves, J. C. and Annan, J. D.: Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity?, Clim. Past, 12, 1591–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016, 2016.
Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., Stoll, D. K., Dolan, A. M., Lunt, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Chandler, M. A.: Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 571–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-571-2011, 2011.
Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Dolan, A. M., Rowley, D., Abe-Ouchi, A.,
Otto-Bliesner, B., Chandler, M. A., Hunter, S. J., Lunt, D. J., Pound, M., and Salzmann, U.: The Pliocene model intercomparison project (PlioMIP) phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design, Clim. Past, 12, 663–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, 2016.
Haywood, A. M., Valdes, P. J., Aze, T., Barlow, N., Burke, A., Dolan, A. M.,
Von Der Heydt, A. S., Hill, D. ., Jamieson, S. S. R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Salzmann, U.: What can Palaeoclimate Modelling do for you?, Earth Syst. Environ., 3, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00093-1 , 2019.
Haywood, A. M., Tindall, J. C., Dowsett, H. J., Dolan, A. M., Foley, K. M.,
Hunter, S. J., Hill, D. J., Chan, W. L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Stepanek, C., and
Lohmann, G.: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2:
large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity, Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020.
Herbert, T. D.: 8.15 Alkenone Paleotemperature Determinations, in: Treatise on Geochemistry, edited by: Holland, H. D. and Turekian, K. K., Elsevier, Oxford, 361–378, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-095975-7.00615-X, 2014.
Herbert, T. D., Peterson, L. C., Lawrence, K. T., and Liu, Z.: Tropical ocean
temperatures over the past 3.5 million years, Science, 328, 1530–1534,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1233137, 2010.
Hill, K. L., Rintoul, S. R., Ridgway, K. R., and Oke, P. R.: Decadal changes in the South Pacific western boundary current system revealed in observations
and ocean state estimates, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C01009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005926, 2011.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jacob, D., Taylor, M., Bindi, M., Brown, S., Camilloni, I., Diedhiou, A., Djalante, R., Ebi, K. L., Engelbrecht, F., Guiot, J., Hijioka, Y., Mehrotra, S., Payne, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Thomas, A., Warren, R., and Zhou, G.: Impacts of 1.5 ∘C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems, in: Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and Waterfield, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 175–312, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.005, 2018.
Hollis, C. J., Dunkley Jones, T., Anagnostou, E., Bijl, P. K., Cramwinckel,
M. J., Cui, Y., Dickens, G. R., Edgar, K. M., Eley, Y., Evans, D., and Foster, G. L.: The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3149–3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3149-2019, 2019.
Hopmans, E. C., Weijers, J. W., Schefuß, E., Herfort, L., Damsté,
J. S. S., and Schouten, S.: A novel proxy for terrestrial organic matter in
sediments based on branched and isoprenoid tetraether lipids, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 224, 107–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.05.012, 2004.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edtited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3–33, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.001, 2022.
Karas, C., Nürnberg, D., Tiedemann, R., and Garbe-Schönberg, D.:
Pliocene climate change of the Southwest Pacific and the impact of ocean
gateways, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 301, 117–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.10.028, 2011.
Kim, J. H., Van der Meer, J., Schouten, S., Helmke, P., Willmott, V.,
Sangiorgi, F., Koç, N., Hopmans, E. C., and Damsté, J. S. S.: New
indices and calibrations derived from the distribution of crenarchaeal
isoprenoid tetraether lipids: Implications for past sea surface temperature
reconstructions, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 74, 4639–4654, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2010.05.027, 2010.
Koenig, S. J., Dolan, A. M., De Boer, B., Stone, E. J., Hill, D. J., DeConto,
R. M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Lunt, D. J., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., and Saito, F.: Ice sheet model dependency of the simulated Greenland Ice Sheet in the
mid-Pliocene, Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and
Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of
the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041335, 2004.
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P.,
Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J. C., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zhou, T.: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, 553–672, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2021.
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally
distributed benthic δ18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001071, 2005.
Lowry, D. P., Krapp, M., Golledge, N. R., and Alevropoulos-Borrill, A.: The
influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to
emerge this century, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2, 2021.
Martínez-Botí, M., Foster, G., Chalk, T., Rohling, E. J., Sexton, P. F., Lunt, D. J., Pancost, R. D., Badger, M. P. S., and Schmidt, D. N.: Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records, Nature, 518, 49–54, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14145, 2015.
Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A.,
Rouco, J.G., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T., and Osborn,
T.: Information from paleoclimate archives, in: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge
University Press, 383–464, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.013, 2013.
Max, L., Lembke–Jene, L., Zou, J., Shi, X., and Tiedemann, R.: Evaluation of
reconstructed sea surface temperatures based on U
McClymont, E. L., Elmore, A. C., Kender, S., Leng, M. J., Greaves, M., and
Elderfield, H.: Pliocene-Pleistocene evolution of sea surface and intermediate water temperatures from the Southwest Pacific, Paleoceanography, 31, 895–913, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016PA002954, 2016.
McClymont, E. L., Ford, H. L., Ho, S. L., Tindall, J. C., Haywood, A. M.,
Alonso-Garcia, M., Bailey, I., Berke, M. A., Littler, K., Patterson, M. O.
and Petrick, B.: Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from ∼3 million years ago, Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020.
McKay, R., Naish, T., Carter, L., Riesselman, C., Dunbar, R., Sjunneskog, C., Winter, D., Sangiorgi, F., Warren, C., Pagani, M., and Schouten, S.: Antarctic and Southern Ocean influences on Late Pliocene global cooling, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 6423–6428, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1112248109, 2012.
Medina-Elizalde, M. and Lea, D. W.: Late Pliocene equatorial Pacific, Paleoceanography, 25, PA001780, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009PA001780, 2010.
Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., McGlade, C., Gütschow, J., Nicholls, Z.,
Burdon, R., Cozzi, L., and Hackmann, B.: Realization of Paris Agreement
pledges may limit warming just below 2 ∘C, Nature, 604, 304–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04553-z, 2022.
Miller, K. G., Wright, J. D., Browning, J. V., Kulpecz, A., Kominz, M., Naish, T. R., Cramer, B. S., Rosenthal, Y., Peltier, W. R., and Sosdian, S.: High tide of the warm Pliocene: Implications of global sea level for Antarctic deglaciation, Geology, 40, 407–410, https://doi.org/10.1130/G32869.1, 2012.
Müller, P.J., Kirst, G., Ruhland, G., Von Storch, I., and
Rosell-Melé, A.: Calibration of the alkenone paleotemperature index
U
Naeher, S., Smittenberg, R. H., Gilli, A., Kirilova, E. P., Lotter, A. F., and Schubert, C. J.: Impact of recent lake eutrophication on microbial community changes as revealed by high resolution lipid biomarkers in Rotsee
(Switzerland), Org. Geochem., 49, 86–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2012.05.014, 2012.
Naeher, S., Niemann, H., Peterse, F., Smittenberg, R. H., Zigah, P. K., and
Schubert, C. J.: Tracing the methane cycle with lipid biomarkers in Lake
Rotsee (Switzerland), Org. Geochem., 66, 174–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2013.11.002, 2014.
Naish, T. and Zwartz, D.: Looking back to the future, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 317–318, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1504, 2012.
Naish, T., Powell, R., Levy, R., Wilson, G., Scherer, R., Talarico, F.,
Krissek, L., Niessen, F., Pompilio, M., Wilson, T., and Carter, L.: Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations, Nature, 458,
322–328, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07867, 2009.
NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds.): The Climate
Data Guide: SST data: HadiSST v1.1, https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/sst-data-hadisst-v11,
(last access: 19 June 2022), 2022.
O'Brien, C. L., Robinson, S. A., Pancost, R. D., Damsté, J. S. S., Schouten, S., Lunt, D. J., Alsenz, H., Bornemann, A., Bottini, C., Brassell, S. C., and Farnsworth, A.: Cretaceous sea-surface temperature evolution: Constraints from TEX86 and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes, Earth-Sci. Rev., 172, 224–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.012, 2017.
Ohkouchi, N., Xu, L., Reddy, C. M., Montluçon, D., and Eglinton, T. I.:
Radiocarbon dating of alkenones from marine sediments: I. Isolation protocol, Radiocarbon, 47, 401–412, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033822200035189, 2005.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J. F., Lowe, J., and Meehl, G. A.: The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for
CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Pancost, R. D., Bouloubassi, I., Aloisi, G., and Damsté, J. S. S.: Three
series of non-isoprenoidal dialkyl glycerol diethers in cold-seep carbonate crusts, Org. Geochem., 32, 695–707, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0146-6380(01)00015-8, 2001.
Patterson, M. O., McKay, R., Naish, T., Escutia, C., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J.,
Raymo, M. E., Meyers, S. R., Tauxe, L., and Brinkhuis, H.: Orbital forcing of
the East Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene, Nat. Geosci., 7, 841–847, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2273, 2014.
Patterson, M. O., McKay, R., Naish, T., Bostock, H. C., Dunbar, R., Ohneiser,
C., Woodard, S. C., Wilson, G., and Caballero-Gill, R.: A Southwest Pacific
perspective on long-term global trends in Pliocene-Pleistocene stable isotope records, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 33, 825–839, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017PA003269, 2018.
Pitcher, A., Rychlik, N., Hopmans, E. C., Spieck, E., Rijpstra, W. I. C.,
Ossebaar, J., Schouten, S., Wagner, M., and Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.:
Crenarchaeol dominates the membrane lipids of Candidatus Nitrososphaera
gargensis, a thermophilic Group I.1b Archaeon, ISME J., 4, 542–552, https://doi.org/10.1038/ismej.2009.138, 2010.
Prahl, F. G. and Wakeham, S. G.: Calibration of unsaturation patterns in
long-chain ketone compositions for palaeotemperature assessment, Nature,
330, 367–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/330367a0, 1987.
Prahl, F.G., Rontani, J. F., Zabeti, N., Walinsky, S. E., and Sparrow, M. A.:
Systematic pattern in U
Qin, W., Carlson, L. T., Armbrust, E. V., Devol, A. H., Moffett, J. W., Stahl, D. A., and Ingalls, A. E.: Confounding effects of oxygen and temperature on the TEX86 signature of marine Thaumarchaeota, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 10979–10984, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1501568112, 2015.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late
nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
Renoult, M., Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Sagoo, N., Flynn, C., Kapsch,
M.-L., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Mikolajewicz, U., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Zhang,
Q., and Mauritsen, T.: A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case
studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP, Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020.
Ridgway, K. R.: Long-term trend and decadal variability of the southward
penetration of the East Australian Current, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L13613, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030393, 2007.
Rosell-Melé, A. and Prahl, F. G.: Seasonality of U
Schouten, S., Hopmans, E. C., Schefuß, E., and Damste, J. S. S.:
Distributional variations in marine crenarchaeotal membrane lipids: a new
tool for reconstructing ancient sea water temperatures?, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 204, 265–274, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00979-2, 2002.
Schouten, S., Forster, A., Panoto, F. E., and Damsté, J. S. S.: Towards calibration of the TEX86 palaeothermometer for tropical sea surface temperatures in ancient greenhouse worlds, Org. Geochem., 38, 1537–1546, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2007.05.014, 2007.
Schouten, S., Hopmans, E. C., and Damsté, J. S. S.: The organic geochemistry of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids: A review, Org. Geochem., 54, 19–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2012.09.006, 2013.
Schuddeboom, A. J. and McDonald, A. J.: The Southern Ocean Radiative Bias,
Cloud Compensating Errors, and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6
Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2021JD035310, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035310, 2021.
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J. P., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire, A., O'connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., and Woodward, S.:
UKESM1: Description and evaluation of the UK Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 4513–4558, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739, 2019.
Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M.,
Hargreaves, J. C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E. J., Watanabe, M., Andrews, T., Branconnot, P., Bretherton, C. S., Foster, G. L., Hausfather, Z., von der Heydt, A. A., Knutti, R., Mauritsen, T., Norris, J. R., Proistosecu, C., Rugensetin, M., Schmidt, G. A., Tokarska, K. B., and Zelinka, M. D.: An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000678, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678, 2020.
Sen Gupta, A., McGregor, S., Van Sebille, E., Ganachaud, A., Brown, J. N., and Santoso, A.: Future changes to the Indonesian Throughflow and Pacific
circulation: The differing role of wind and deep circulation changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1669–1678, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067757, 2016.
Sen Gupta, A., Stellema, A., Pontes, G. M., Taschetto, A. S., Vergés, A.,
and Rossi, V.: Future changes to the upper ocean Western Boundary Currents
across two generations of climate models, Sci. Rep., 11, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88934-w, 2021.
Senior, C. A., Jones, C. G., Wood, R. A., Sellar, A., Belcher, S., Klein-Tank, A., Sutton, R., Walton, J., Lawrence, B., Andrews, T., and Mulcahy, J. P.: UK community Earth system odelling for CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002004, 2020.
Smith, R. S., Mathiot, P., Siahaan, A., Lee, V., Cornford, S. L., Gregory, J. M., Payne, A. J., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: Coupling the UK Earth System Model to dynamic models of the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 13, e2021MS002520, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002520, 2021.
Spezzaferri, S., Kucera, M., Pearson, P. N., Wade, B. S., Rappo, S., Poole, C. R., Morard, R., and Stalder, C.: Fossil and genetic evidence for the
polyphyletic nature of the planktonic foraminifera “Globigerinoides”, and
description of the new genus Trilobatus, PLoS One, 10, e0128108,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259924, 2015.
Strogen, D. P., Seebeck, H., Hines, B. R., Bland, K. J., and Crampton, J. S.:
Palaeogeographic evolution of Zealandia: mid-Cretaceous to present, NZ. J. Geol. Geophys., https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2022.2115520, 2022.
Sutton, P. J. and Bowen, M.: Ocean temperature change around New Zealand over
the last 36 years, NZ. J. Mar. Freshwater Res., 53, 305–326,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00288330.2018.1562945, 2019.
Tierney, J. E. and Tingley, M. P.: A TEX86 surface sediment database and
extended Bayesian calibration, Scient. Data, 2, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.29, 2015.
Tierney, J. E. and Tingley, M. P.: BAYSPLINE: A new calibration for the
alkenone paleothermometer, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 33, 281–301,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017PA003201, 2018.
Vihtakari M.: ggOceanMaps: Plot Data on Oceanographic Maps using `ggplot2',
GitHub [code], https://mikkovihtakari.github.io/ggOceanMaps/ (last access: 16 June 2022), 2022.
Volodin, E. M., Mortikov, E. V., Kostrykin, S. V., Galin, V. Y., Lykossov, V. N., Gritsun, A. S., Diansky, N. A., Gusev, A. V., Iakovlev, N. G., Shestakova, A. A., and Emelina, S. V.: Simulation of the modern climate using the INM-CM48 climate model. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Model., 33, 367–374, https://doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2018-0032, 2018.
Williams, J., Morgenstern, O., Varma, V., Behrens, E., Hayek, W., Oliver, H., Dean, S., Mullan, B., and Frame, D.: Development of the New Zealand Earth
System Model, Weather and Clim., 36, 25–44, 2016.
Williams, J., Behrens, E., Morgenstern, O., Teixeira, J. C., Varma, V., and
Hayek, W.: Regional ocean grid refinement and its effect on simulated
atmospheric climate, ESS Open Archive, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167642236.61101960/v1, 2023.
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M.,
Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020.
Zhang, Y. G., Zhang, C. L., Liu, X. L., Li, L., Hinrichs, K. U., and Noakes,
J. E.: Methane Index: A tetraether archaeal lipid biomarker indicator for
detecting the instability of marine gas hydrates, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 307, 525–534, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.05.031, 2011.
Zhu, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Poulsen, C. J., Tierney, J. E.,
Lofverstrom, M., and DiNezio, P.: Assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model version 2 through simulation
of the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091220, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091220, 2021.
Short summary
Regional warming will differ from global warming, and climate models perform poorly in the Southern Ocean. We reconstruct sea surface temperatures in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene, a time 3 million years ago that represents the long-term outcomes of 3 °C warming, which is expected for the future. Comparing these results to climate model simulations, we show that the south-west Pacific region will warm by 1 °C above the global average if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm.
Regional warming will differ from global warming, and climate models perform poorly in the...
