Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 12 Jan 2023
| 12 Jan 2023
No changes in overall AMOC strength in interglacial PMIP4 time slices
Department of Geography, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Chris Brierley
Department of Geography, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
David Thornalley
Department of Geography, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Sophie Sax
Department of Geography, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Related authors
Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Zhiyi Jiang, Rachel Eyles, Damián Oyarzún, and Jose Gomez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the way that our group have chosen to perform our recent analyses of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ensemble simulations. We document the approach used to obtain and curate the simulations, process those outputs via the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package, and then continue through to compute ensemble-wide statistics and create figures. We also provide interim data from all steps, the codes used and the ability for users to perform their own analyses.
Anni Zhao, Chris Brierley, Venni Arra, Xiaoxu Shi, and Yongyun Hu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3140, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation has large impacts on the European climate, whose future behaviour remains uncertain. We assess the NAO response in three past experiments (midHolocene, lig127k, lgm) and an abrupt quadrupled CO2 scenario (abrupt4xCO2). Our results show that NAO weakens (enhances) in response to cooling (warming), while it is not sensitive to orbital configurations. The associated teleconnections change consistently with the theory and are sensitive to the change in NAO amplitude.
Mara Y. McPartland, Tomas Lovato, Charles D. Koven, Jamie D. Wilson, Briony Turner, Colleen M. Petrik, José Licón-Saláiz, Fang Li, Fanny Lhardy, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Michio Kawamiya, Birgit Hassler, Nathan P. Gillett, Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christopher Danek, Chris M. Brierley, Ana Bastos, and Oliver Andrews
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3246, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international consortium of climate modeling groups that produce coordinated experiments in order to evaluate human influence on the climate and test knowledge of Earth systems. This paper describes the data requested for Earth systems research in CMIP7. We detail the request for model output of the carbon cycle, the flows of energy among the atmosphere, land and the oceans, and interactions between these and the global climate.
Nil Irvalı, Ulysses S. Ninnemann, Are Olsen, Neil L. Rose, David J. R. Thornalley, Tor L. Mjell, and François Counillon
Geochronology, 6, 449–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine sediments are excellent archives for reconstructing past changes in climate and ocean circulation. Yet, dating uncertainties, particularly during the 20th century, pose major challenges. Here we propose a novel chronostratigraphic approach that uses anthropogenic signals, such as the oceanic 13C Suess effect and spheroidal carbonaceous fly-ash particles, to reduce age model uncertainties in high-resolution marine archives over the 20th century.
Anni Zhao, Ran Feng, Chris M. Brierley, Jian Zhang, and Yongyun Hu
Clim. Past, 20, 1195–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse simulations with idealised aerosol scenarios to examine the importance of aerosol forcing on mPWP precipitation and how aerosol uncertainty could explain the data–model mismatch. We find further warming, a narrower and stronger ITCZ, and monsoon domain rainfall change after removal of industrial emissions. Aerosols have more impacts on tropical precipitation than the mPWP boundary conditions. This highlights the importance of prescribed aerosol scenarios in simulating mPWP climate.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Zhiyi Jiang, Rachel Eyles, Damián Oyarzún, and Jose Gomez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the way that our group have chosen to perform our recent analyses of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ensemble simulations. We document the approach used to obtain and curate the simulations, process those outputs via the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package, and then continue through to compute ensemble-wide statistics and create figures. We also provide interim data from all steps, the codes used and the ability for users to perform their own analyses.
Maryam Ilyas, Douglas Nychka, Chris Brierley, and Serge Guillas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7103–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7103-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Instrumental temperature records are fundamental to climate science. There are spatial gaps in the distribution of these measurements across the globe. This lack of spatial coverage introduces coverage error. In this research, a methodology is developed and used to quantify the coverage errors. It results in a data product that, for the first time, provides a full description of both the spatial coverage uncertainties along with the uncertainties in the modeling of these spatial gaps.
Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, and Simon L. Lewis
Biogeosciences, 18, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Cited articles
Ayache, M., Swingedouw, D., Mary, Y., Eynaud, F., and Colin, C.: Multi-centennial variability of the AMOC over the Holocene: A new reconstruction based on multiple proxy-derived SST records, Global Planet. Change, 170, 172–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.08.016, 2018. a, b
Bader, J., Jungclaus, J., Krivova, N., Lorenz, S., Maycock, A., Raddatz, T., Schmidt, H., Toohey, M., Wu, C. J., and Claussen, M.: Global temperature modes shed light on the Holocene temperature conundrum, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18478-6, 2020. a
Bengtson, S. A., Menviel, L. C., Meissner, K. J., Missiaen, L., Peterson, C. D., Lisiecki, L. E., and Joos, F.: Lower oceanic δ13C during the last interglacial period compared to the Holocene, Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021. a
Berger, A. and Loutre, M. F.: Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 297–317, https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(91)90033-Q, 1991. a
Böhm, E., Lippold, J., Gutjahr, M., Frank, M., Blaser, P., Antz, B., Fohlmeister, J., Frank, N., Andersen, M., and Deininger, M.: Strong and deep Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last glacial cycle, Nature, 517, 73–76, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14059, 2015. a
Bonnet, R., Boucher, O., Deshayes, J., Gastineau, G., Hourdin, F., Mignot, J., Servonnat, J., and Swingedouw, D.: Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Ensemble of extended historical simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2021MS002565, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ms002565, 2021. a
Borchert, L. F., Müller, W. A., and Baehr, J.: Atlantic ocean heat transport influences interannual-to-decadal surface temperature predictability in the North Atlantic region, J. Climate, 31, 6763–6782, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0734.1, 2018. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, L., Guilyardi, É., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.:: Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Braconnot, P., Zhu, D., Marti, O., and Servonnat, J.: Strengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation, Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019. a
Brierley, C. M., Zhao, A., Harrison, S. P., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Thornalley, D. J. R., Shi, X., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Ohgaito, R., Kaufman, D. S., Kageyama, M., Hargreaves, J. C., Erb, M. P., Emile-Geay, J., D'Agostino, R., Chandan, D., Carré, M., Bartlein, P. J., Zheng, W., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Q., Yang, H., Volodin, E. M., Tomas, R. A., Routson, C., Peltier, W. R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Morozova, P. A., McKay, N. P., Lohmann, G., Legrande, A. N., Guo, C., Cao, J., Brady, E., Annan, J. D., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations, Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Buckley, M. W. and Marshall, J.: Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review, Rev. Geophys., 54, 5–63, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015rg000493, 2016. a, b
Burke, A., Marchal, O., Bradtmiller, L. I., McManus, J. F., and François, R.: Application of an inverse method to interpret
Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., and Saba, V.: Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature, 556, 191–196, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5, 2018. a
Capron, E., Govin, A., Feng, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Wolff, E. W.: Critical evaluation of climate syntheses to bench40 mark CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka Last Interglacial simulations in the high-latitude regions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 168, 137–150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.04.019, 2017. a, b
Chen, X. and Tung, K.-K.: Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation, Nature, 559, 387–391, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0320-y, 2018. a
Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Kwon, Y. O., Tribbia, J. J., Phillips, A. S., and Hurrell, J. W.: Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CCSM4, J. Climate, 25, 5153–5172, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00463.1, 2012. a, b
Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Bailey, D., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M., Cassou, C., Chassignet, E., Coward, A. C., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Farneti, R., Fernandez, E., Fogli, P. G., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Griffies, S. M., Gusev, A., Heimbach, P., Howard, A., Jung, T., Kelley, M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Lu, J., Madec, G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., Navarra, A., Nurser, A. J. G., Pirani, A., Salas y Mélia, D., Samuels, B. L., Scheinert, M., Sidorenko, D., Treguier, A.-M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valcke, S., Voldoire, A., and Wangi, Q.: North Atlantic simulations in coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part I: mean states, Ocean Model., 73, 76–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.10.005, 2014. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Eyring, V., Gillett, N., Rao, K. A., Barimalala, R., Parrillo, M. B., Bellouin, N., Cassou, C., Durack, P., Kosaka, Y., McGregor, S., Min, S., Morgenstern, O., and Sun, Y.: Human Influence on the Climate System, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 423–552, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.005, 2021. a, b
Fischer, N.: Holocene and Eemian climate variability, PhD thesis, Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung No. 91, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, 106 pp., 2011. a
Frajka-Williams, E., Ansorge, I. J., Baehr, J., Bryden, H. L., Chidichimo, M. P., Cunningham, S. A., Danabasoglu, G., Dong, S., Donohue, K. A., Elipot, S., Heimbach, P., Holliday, N. P., Hummels, R., Jackson, L. C., Karstensen, J., Lankhorst, M., Le Bras, I. A., Susan Lozier, M., McDonagh, E. L., Meinen, C. S., Mercier, H., Moat, B. I., Perez, R. C., Piecuch, C. G., Rhein, M., Srokosz, M. A., Trenberth, K. E., Bacon, S., Forget, G., Goni, G., Kieke, D., Koelling, J., Lamont, T., McCarthy, G. D., Mertens, C., Send, U., Smeed, D. A., Speich, S., van den Berg, M., Volkov, D., and Wilson, C.: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Observed transport and variability, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 260, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00260, 2019. a, b, c
Găinuşă-Bogdan, A., Swingedouw, D., Yiou, P., Cattiaux, J., Codron, F., and Michel, S.: AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-Holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models, Global Planet. Change, 184, 103055, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103055, 2020. a
Gherardi, J.-M., Labeyrie, L., Nave, S., François, R., McManus, J. F., and Cortijo, E.: Glacial-interglacial circulation changes inferred from
Gong, X., Liu, H., Wang, F., and Heuzé, C.: Of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the CMIP6 Project, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 206, 105193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2022.105193, 2022. a
Gruber, N., Keeling, C. D., and Bates, N. R.: Interannual variability in the North Atlantic Ocean carbon sink, Science, 298, 2374–2378, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1077077, 2002. a
Guihou, A., Pichat, S., Nave, S., Govin, A., Labeyrie, L., Michel, E., and Waelbroeck, C.: Late slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial inception: new constraints from sedimentary (
Guihou, A., Pichat, S., Govin, A., Nave, S., Michel, E., Duplessy, J.-C., Telouk, P., and Labeyrie, L.: Enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation supports the Last Glacial inception, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 1576–1582, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.03.017, 2011. a
Hayes, C. T., Anderson, R. F., Fleisher, M. Q., Serno, S., Winckler, G., and Gersonde, R.: Quantifying lithogenic inputs to the North Pacific Ocean using the long-lived thorium isotopes, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 383, 16–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.09.025, 2013. a
Hoffmann, S. S., McManus, J. F., and Swank, E.: Evidence for stable Holocene basin-scale overturning circulation despite variable currents along the deep western boundary of the North Atlantic Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13427–13436, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080187, 2018. a, b
Jackson, L. and Wood, R.: Fingerprints for early detection of changes in the AMOC, J. Climate, 33, 7027–7044, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0034.1, 2020. a
Jiang, Z.: pmip4/AMOC-during-the-interglacials-in-PMIP4-simulations-: v2 (Version v2), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7499247, 2023. a
Jonkers, L., Zahn, R., Thomas, A., Henderson, G., Abouchami, W., François, R., Masque, P., Hall, I. R., and Bickert, T.: Deep circulation changes in the central South Atlantic during the past 145 kyrs reflected in a combined
Joussaume, S. and Braconnot, P.: Sensitivity of paleoclimate simulation results to season definitions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 1943–1956, https://doi.org/10.1029/96jd01989, 1997. a, b
Jungclaus, J. H., Lohmann, K., and Zanchettin, D.: Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 10, 2201–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, 2014. a
Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M., Jungclaus, J. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Brierley, C., Crucifix, M., Dolan, A., Fernandez-Donado, L., Fischer, H., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Peltier, W. R., Phipps, S. J., Roche, D. M., Schmidt, G. A., Tarasov, L., Valdes, P. J., Zhang, Q., and Zhou, T.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018. a, b
Keil, P., Mauritsen, T., Jungclaus, J., Hedemann, C., Olonscheck, D., and Ghosh, R.: Multiple drivers of the North Atlantic warming hole, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 667–671, 2020. a
Kelley, M., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Bauer, S. E., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Miller, R. L., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., García-Pando, C. P., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M.-S.: GISS-E2.1: Configurations and climatology, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002025, 2020. a, b
Kissel, C., Van Toer, A., Laj, C., Cortijo, E., and Michel, E.: Variations in the strength of the North Atlantic bottom water during Holocene, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 369–370, 248–259, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.03.042, 2013. a
Kuhlbrodt, T., Griesel, A., Montoya, M., Levermann, A., Hofmann, M., and Rahmstorf, S.: On the driving processes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Rev. Geophys., 45, 1–32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000166, 2007. a
Latif, M., Sun, J., Visbeck, M., and Hadi Bordbar, M.: Natural variability has dominated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1900, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 455–460, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01342-4, 2022. a
LeGrande, A. N. and Schmidt, G. A.: Ensemble, water isotope–enabled, coupled general circulation modeling insights into the 8.2 ka event, Paleoceanography, 23, PA3207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001610, 2008. a
Li, L., Yu, Y., Tang, Y., Lin, P., Xie, J., Song, M., Dong, L., Zhou, T., Liu, L., Wang, L., Pu, Y., Chen, X., Chen, L., Xie, Z., Liu, H., Zhang, L., Huang, X., Feng, T., Zheng, W., Xia, K., Liu, H., Liu, J., Wang, Y., Wang, L., Jia, B., Xie, F., Wang, B., Zhao, S., Yu, Z., Zhao, B., and Wei, J.: The flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model grid-point version 3 (FGOALS-g3): description and evaluation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002012, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2140-6, 2020. a, b
Lippold, J., Gutjahr, M., Blaser, P., Christner, E., de Carvalho Ferreira, M. L., Mulitza, S., Christl, M., Wombacher, F., Böhm, E., Antz, B., Cartapanis, O., Vogel, H., and Jaccard, S. L.: Deep water provenance and dynamics of the (de) glacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 445, 68–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.04.013, 2016. a
Lippold, J., Pöppelmeier, F., Süfke, F., Gutjahr, M., Goepfert, T. J., Blaser, P., Friedrich, O., Link, J. M., Wacker, L., Rheinberger, S., and Jaccard, S. L.: Constraining the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11338–11346, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084988, 2019. a, b
Lozier, M. S., Li, F., Bacon, S., Bahr, F., Bower, A. S., Cunningham, S. A., De Jong, M. F., De Steur, L., DeYoung, B., Fischer, J., Gary, S. F., Greenan, B. J., Holliday, N. P., Houk, A., Houpert, L., Inall, M. E., Johns, W. E., Johnson, H. L., Johnson, C., Karstensen, J., Koman, G., Le Bras, I. A., Lin, X., Mackay, N., Marshall, D. P., Mercier, H., Oltmanns, M., Pickart, R. S., Ramsey, A. L., Rayner, D., Straneo, F., Thierry, V., Torres, D. J., Williams, R. G., Wilson, C., Yang, J., Yashayaev, I., and Zhao, J.: A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic, Science, 363, 516–521, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau6592, 2019. a, b, c
Lurton, T., Balkkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Contoux, C., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., Dufresne, J.-L., Ethé, C., Foujols, M.-A., Ghattas, J., Hauglustaine, D., Hu, R.-M., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Marchand, M., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Sima, A. Szopa, S., Thiéblemont, R., Vuichard, N., and Boucher, O.: Implementation of the CMIP6 Forcing Data in the IPSL-CM6A-LR Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001940, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001940, 2020. a, b
Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W. B., and Lund, D. C.: Florida Straits density structure and transport over the last 8000 years, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3209, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001717, 2009. a, b
Marsicek, J., Shuman, B. N., Bartlein, P. J., Shafer, S. L., and Brewer, S.: Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures, Nature, 554, 92–96, 2018. a
McKay, N. P., Kaufman, D. S., Routson, C. C., Erb, M. P., and Zander, P. D.: The onset and rate of Holocene Neoglacial cooling in the Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12487–12496, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079773, 2018. a
McManus, J. F., Francois, R., Gherardl, J. M., Kelgwin, L., and Drown-Leger, S.: Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes, Nature, 428, 834–837, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02494, 2004. a, b
Missiaen, L., Menviel, L. C., Meissner, K. J., Roche, D. M., Dutay, J.-C., Bouttes, N., Lhardy, F., Quiquet, A., Pichat, S., and Waelbroeck, C.: Modelling the impact of biogenic particle flux intensity and composition on sedimentary
Negre, C., Zahn, R., Thomas, A. L., Masqué, P., Henderson, G. M., Martínez-Méndez, G., Hall, I. R., and Mas, J. L.: Reversed flow of Atlantic deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum, Nature, 468, 84–88, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09508, 2010. a
Ng, H. C., Robinson, L. F., McManus, J. F., Mohamed, K. J., Jacobel, A. W., Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., and Chen, T.: Coherent deglacial changes in western Atlantic Ocean circulation, Nat. Commun., 9, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05312-3, 2018. a
Osman, M. B., Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., Tardif, R., Hakim, G. J., King, J., and Poulsen, C. J.: Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum, Nature, 599, 239–244, https://doi.org/10.31223/x5s31z, 2021. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Capron, E., Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Fischer, H., Goelzer, H., Govin, A., Haywood, A., Joos, F., LeGrande, A. N., Lipscomb, W. H., Lohmann, G., Mahowald, N., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Pausata, F. S. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Phipps, S. J., Renssen, H., and Zhang, Q.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R. A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Mahowald, N. M., Shafer, S. L., Kluzek, E., Lawrence, P. J., Leguy, G., Rothstein, M., and Sommers, A.: A comparison of the CMIP6 midHolocene and lig127k simulations in CESM2, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 35, e2020PA003957, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA003957, 2020. a, b, c
Petit, T., Lozier, M. S., Josey, S. A., and Cunningham, S. A.: Role of air–sea fluxes and ocean surface density in the production of deep waters in the eastern subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic, Ocean Sci., 17, 1353–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1353-2021, 2021. a
Phillips, A. S., Deser, C., and Fasullo, J.: Evaluating modes of variability in climate models, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 95, 453–455, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO490002, 2014. a
Rahmstorf, S.: Thermohaline ocean circulation, in: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Sciences, edited by: Elias, S. A., Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1–10, 2006. a
Rayner, D., Hirschi, J. J., Kanzow, T., Johns, W. E., Wright, P. G., Frajka-Williams, E., Bryden, H. L., Meinen, C. S., Baringer, M. O., Marotzke, J., Beal, L. M., and Cunningham, S. A.: Monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 58, 1744–1753, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2010.10.056, 2011. a, b
Rempfer, J., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., Lippold, J., and Jaccard, S. L.: New insights into cycling of 231Pa and 230Th in the Atlantic Ocean, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 468, 27–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.03.027, 2017. a
Sasaki, Y., Kobayashi, H., and Oka, A.: Global simulation of dissolved 231Pa and 230Th in the ocean and the sedimentary
Scussolini, P., Bakker, P., Guo, C. C., Stepanek, C., Zhang, Q., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Guarino, M. V., Coumou, D., Prange, M., Ward, P. J., Renssen, H., Kageyama, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Agreement between reconstructed and modeled boreal precipitation of the Last Interglacial, Science Advances, 5, eaax7047, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax7047, 2019. a, b
Seland, Ø., Bentsen, M., Olivié, D., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y.-C., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020. a, b
Shi, X. and Lohmann, G.: Simulated response of the mid-Holocene Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in ECHAM6-FESOM/MPIOM, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 6444–6469, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jc011584, 2016. a
Solignac, S., De Vernal, A., and Hillaire-Marcel, C.: Holocene sea-surface conditions in the North Atlantic – Contrasted trends and regimes in the western and eastern sectors (Labrador Sea vs. Iceland Basin), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 319–334, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.06.003, 2004. a
Srokosz, M., Baringer, M., Bryden, H., Cunningham, S., Delworth, T., Lozier, S., Marotzke, J., and Sutton, R.: Past, present, and future changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1663–1676, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00151.1, 2012. a
Thornalley, D. J., Oppo, D. W., Ortega, P., Robson, J. I., Brierley, C. M., Davis, R., Hall, I. R., Moffa-Sanchez, P., Rose, N. L., Spooner, P. T., Yashayaev, I., and Keigwin, L. D.: Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years, Nature, 556, 227–230, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0007-4, 2018. a, b
van Hulten, M., Dutay, J.-C., and Roy-Barman, M.: A global scavenging and circulation ocean model of thorium-230 and protactinium-231 with improved particle dynamics (NEMO–ProThorP 0.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3537–3556, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3537-2018, 2018. a
Volodin, E. M., Mortikov, E. V., Kostrykin, S. V., Galin, V. Y., Lykossov, V. N., Gritsun, A. S., Diansky, N. A., Gusev, A. V., Iakovlev, N. G., Shestakova, A. A., and Emelina, S. V.: Simulation of the modern climate using the INM-CM4-8 climate model, Russ. J. Numer. Anal. M., 33, 367–374, https://doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2018-0032, 2018. a, b
Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Garuba, O. A., Hu, A., and Nadiga, B. T.: CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086075, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086075, 2020. a
Williams, C. J. R., Guarino, M.-V., Capron, E., Malmierca-Vallet, I., Singarayer, J. S., Sime, L. C., Lunt, D. J., and Valdes, P. J.: CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data, Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020.
a, b, c, d, e
Xie, M., Moore, J. C., Zhao, L., Wolovick, M., and Muri, H.: Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, 2022. a
Yeung, N. K.-H., Menviel, L., Meissner, K. J., Taschetto, A. S., Ziehn, T., and Chamberlain, M.: Land–sea temperature contrasts at the Last Interglacial and their impact on the hydrological cycle, Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021. a, b
Yu, E.-F., Francois, R., and Bacon, M. P.: Similar rates of modern and Last-Glacial ocean thermohaline circulation inferred from radiochemical data, Nature, 379, 689–694, https://doi.org/10.1038/379689a0, 1996. a
Yukimoto, S., Kawai, H., Koshiro, T., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yabu, S., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Obata, A., Adachi, Y., and Ishii, M.: The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0, MRI-ESM2.0: Description and basic evaluation of the physical component, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 97, 931–965, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-051, 2019. a, b
Zhang, Q., Berntell, E., Axelsson, J., Chen, J., Han, Z., de Nooijer, W., Lu, Z., Li, Q., Zhang, Q., Wyser, K., and Yang, S.: Simulating the mid-Holocene, last interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1147–1169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1147-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Zhao, A., Brierley, C. M., Jiang, Z., Eyles, R., Oyarzún, D., and Gomez-Dans, J.: Analysing the PMIP4-CMIP6 collection: a workflow and tool (pmip_p2fvar_analyzer v1), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022. a, b
Zheng, W., Yu, Y., Luan, Y., Zhao, S., He, B., Dong, L., Song, M., Lin, P., and Liu, H.: CAS-FGOALS Datasets for the Two Interglacial Epochs of the Holocene and the Last Interglacial in PMIP4, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1034–1044, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9290-8, 2020. a, b, c, d
Short summary
This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. We show that there are no robust changes in the overall strength of the circulation. We also show that the circulation hardly plays a role in changes in the surface climate across the globe.
This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep...
