Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Technical Note: Past and future warming – direct comparison on multi-century timescales
Darrell S. Kaufman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University,
Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Nicholas P. McKay
School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University,
Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
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Darrell Kaufman and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Clim. Past, 20, 2587–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024, 2024
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Rather than reverting to a dedicated paleoclimate chapter, knowledge about pre-industrial climate should be further integrated with other lines of evidence throughout the next assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Laura J. Larocca, James M. Lea, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Megan Phillips, Kara A. Lamantia, and Darrell S. Kaufman
The Cryosphere, 18, 3591–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, 2024
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Here we present summer snowline altitude (SLA) time series for 269 Arctic glaciers. Between 1984 and 2022, SLAs rose ∼ 150 m, equating to a ∼ 127 m shift per 1 °C of summer warming. SLA is most strongly correlated with annual temperature variables, highlighting their dual effect on ablation and accumulation processes. We show that SLAs are rising fastest on low-elevation glaciers and that > 50 % of the studied glaciers could have SLAs that exceed the maximum ice elevation by 2100.
Gabriel West, Darrell S. Kaufman, Martin Jakobsson, and Matt O'Regan
Geochronology, 5, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-285-2023, 2023
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We report aspartic and glutamic acid racemization analyses on Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi from the Arctic Ocean (AO). The rates of racemization in the species are compared. Calibrating the rate of racemization in C. wuellerstorfi for the past 400 ka allows the estimation of sample ages from the central AO. Estimated ages are older than existing age assignments (as previously observed for N. pachyderma), confirming that differences are not due to taxonomic effects.
Lauren J. Davies, Britta J. L. Jensen, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology, 4, 121–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-121-2022, 2022
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Subarctic and Arctic lake sediments provide key data to understand natural climate variability and future climate change. However, they can be difficult to date accurately and of limited use without a robust chronology. We use volcanic ash deposits from the last ~4000 BP to identify anomalously old radiocarbon ages at Cascade Lake, Alaska. A provisional ~15 000-year Bayesian age model is produced for the lake, and a new location for ash from five Late Holocene eruptions is reported.
Douglas P. Steen, Joseph S. Stoner, Jason P. Briner, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, 2021
Publication in GChron not foreseen
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Paleomagnetic data from Cascade Lake (Brooks Range, Alaska) extend the radiometric-based age model of the sedimentary sequence extending back 21 kyr. Correlated ages based on prominent features in paleomagnetic secular variations (PSV) diverge from the radiometric ages in the upper 1.6 m, by up to about 2000 years at around 4 ka. Four late Holocene cryptotephra in this section support the PSV chronology and suggest the influence of hard water or aged organic material.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
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We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Alice R. Paine, Joost Frieling, Timothy M. Shanahan, Tamsin A. Mather, Nicholas McKay, Stuart A. Robinson, David M. Pyle, Isabel M. Fendley, Ruth Kiely, and William D. Gosling
Clim. Past, 21, 817–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-817-2025, 2025
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Few tropical mercury (Hg) records extend beyond ~ 12 ka, meaning our current understanding of Hg behaviour may not fully account for the impact of long-term hydroclimate changes on the Hg cycle in these environments. Here, we present an ~ 96 kyr Hg record from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana. A coupled response is observed between Hg flux and shifts in sediment composition reflective of changes in lake level, suggesting that hydroclimate may be a key driver of tropical Hg cycling over millennial timescales.
Christopher L. Hancock, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Sylvia G. Dee, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Clim. Past, 20, 2663–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, 2024
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We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data–model disagreement in east Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns, as well as orbital forcing, are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
Darrell Kaufman and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Clim. Past, 20, 2587–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rather than reverting to a dedicated paleoclimate chapter, knowledge about pre-industrial climate should be further integrated with other lines of evidence throughout the next assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Laura J. Larocca, James M. Lea, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Megan Phillips, Kara A. Lamantia, and Darrell S. Kaufman
The Cryosphere, 18, 3591–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present summer snowline altitude (SLA) time series for 269 Arctic glaciers. Between 1984 and 2022, SLAs rose ∼ 150 m, equating to a ∼ 127 m shift per 1 °C of summer warming. SLA is most strongly correlated with annual temperature variables, highlighting their dual effect on ablation and accumulation processes. We show that SLAs are rising fastest on low-elevation glaciers and that > 50 % of the studied glaciers could have SLAs that exceed the maximum ice elevation by 2100.
Gabriel West, Darrell S. Kaufman, Martin Jakobsson, and Matt O'Regan
Geochronology, 5, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-285-2023, 2023
Short summary
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We report aspartic and glutamic acid racemization analyses on Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi from the Arctic Ocean (AO). The rates of racemization in the species are compared. Calibrating the rate of racemization in C. wuellerstorfi for the past 400 ka allows the estimation of sample ages from the central AO. Estimated ages are older than existing age assignments (as previously observed for N. pachyderma), confirming that differences are not due to taxonomic effects.
Rachel M. Walter, Hussein R. Sayani, Thomas Felis, Kim M. Cobb, Nerilie J. Abram, Ariella K. Arzey, Alyssa R. Atwood, Logan D. Brenner, Émilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Bethany Ellis, Julien Emile-Geay, Matthew J. Fischer, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jessica A. Hargreaves, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Hedwig Krawczyk, Nicholas P. McKay, Andrea L. Moore, Sujata A. Murty, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Riovie D. Ramos, Emma V. Reed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Sara C. Sanchez, Jens Zinke, and the PAGES CoralHydro2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2081–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, 2023
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Accurately quantifying how the global hydrological cycle will change in the future remains challenging due to the limited availability of historical climate data from the tropics. Here we present the CoralHydro2k database – a new compilation of peer-reviewed coral-based climate records from the last 2000 years. This paper details the records included in the database and where the database can be accessed and demonstrates how the database can investigate past tropical climate variability.
Jan Petřík, Katarína Adameková, Sándor Kele, Rastislav Milovský, Libor Petr, Peter Tóth, and Nicholas McKay
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-118, 2023
Preprint archived
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Our analysis of the Santovka sedimentary record in Slovakia uncovered two major climate shifts at 8.2 and 7.4 ka BP. These shifts likely impacted temperature and humidity, and/or air mass circulation, and were caused by the drying of the lake at 7.4 ka BP. The sedimentary infill provides important information on the region's past climate, and future research must focus on its impact on the last hunter gatherers and first farmers in the context of spreading agriculture in Europe.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
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To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Stephanie H. Arcusa, Nicholas P. McKay, Charlotte Wiman, Sela Patterson, Samuel E. Munoz, and Marco A. Aquino-López
Geochronology, 4, 409–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Annually banded lake sediment can track environmental change with high resolution in locations where alternatives are not available. Yet, information about chronology is often affected by poor appearance. Traditional methods struggle with these records. To overcome this obstacle we demonstrate a Bayesian approach that combines information from radiocarbon dating and laminations on cores from Columbine Lake, Colorado, expanding possibilities for producing high-resolution records globally.
Lauren J. Davies, Britta J. L. Jensen, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology, 4, 121–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Subarctic and Arctic lake sediments provide key data to understand natural climate variability and future climate change. However, they can be difficult to date accurately and of limited use without a robust chronology. We use volcanic ash deposits from the last ~4000 BP to identify anomalously old radiocarbon ages at Cascade Lake, Alaska. A provisional ~15 000-year Bayesian age model is produced for the lake, and a new location for ash from five Late Holocene eruptions is reported.
Douglas P. Steen, Joseph S. Stoner, Jason P. Briner, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, 2021
Publication in GChron not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Paleomagnetic data from Cascade Lake (Brooks Range, Alaska) extend the radiometric-based age model of the sedimentary sequence extending back 21 kyr. Correlated ages based on prominent features in paleomagnetic secular variations (PSV) diverge from the radiometric ages in the upper 1.6 m, by up to about 2000 years at around 4 ka. Four late Holocene cryptotephra in this section support the PSV chronology and suggest the influence of hard water or aged organic material.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Nicholas P. McKay, Julien Emile-Geay, and Deborah Khider
Geochronology, 3, 149–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021, 2021
Short summary
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This paper describes geoChronR, an R package that streamlines the process of quantifying age uncertainties, propagating uncertainties through several common analyses, and visualizing the results. In addition to describing the structure and underlying theory of the package, we present five real-world use cases that illustrate common workflows in geoChronR. geoChronR is built on the Linked PaleoData framework, is open and extensible, and we welcome feedback and contributions from the community.
Chris S. M. Turney, Richard T. Jones, Nicholas P. McKay, Erik van Sebille, Zoë A. Thomas, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, 2020
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The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) experienced global temperatures and sea levels higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) are uncertain. We report a global network of sea surface temperatures. We find mean global annual temperature anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1˚C and an early maximum peak of 0.9 ± 0.1˚C. Our reconstruction suggests warmer waters contributed on average 0.08 ± 0.1 m and a peak contribution of 0.39 ± 0.1 m to global sea level.
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Short summary
Global mean surface temperatures are rising to levels unprecedented in over 100 000 years. This conclusion takes into account both recent global warming and likely future warming, which thereby enables a direct comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions on multi-century timescales.
Global mean surface temperatures are rising to levels unprecedented in over 100 000 years. This...