Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 12 Jul 2022
| 12 Jul 2022
Was there a volcanic-induced long-lasting cooling over the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-6th–7th century?
Evelien van Dijk
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Johann Jungclaus
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Stephan Lorenz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Claudia Timmreck
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Related authors
Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2651, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude, effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size with a special focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response with Arctic surface warming in winter and cooling in summer. Also, as eruptions become larger in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in the emission strength.
Swantje Bastin, Aleksei Koldunov, Florian Schütte, Oliver Gutjahr, Marta Agnieszka Mrozowska, Tim Fischer, Radomyra Shevchenko, Arjun Kumar, Nikolay Koldunov, Helmuth Haak, Nils Brüggemann, Rebecca Hummels, Mia Sophie Specht, Johann Jungclaus, Sergey Danilov, Marcus Dengler, and Markus Jochum
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2281, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical mixing is an important process e.g. for tropical sea surface temperature, but cannot be resolved by ocean models. Comparisons of mixing schemes and settings have usually been done with a single model, sometimes yielding conflicting results. We systematically compare two widely used schemes, TKE and KPP, with different parameter settings, in two different ocean models, and show that most effects from mixing scheme parameter changes are model dependent.
Moritz Günther, Hauke Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, and Matthew Toohey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7203–7225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol has been shown to cause pronounced cooling in the tropical Indian and western Pacific oceans. Using a climate model, we show that this arises from enhanced meridional energy export via the stratosphere. The aerosol causes stratospheric heating and thus an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation that accomplishes this transport. Our findings highlight the importance of circulation adjustments and surface perspectives on forcing for understanding temperature responses.
Dennis Booge, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Birgit Quack, and Kirstin Krüger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic bromoform, produced by algae, is an important precursor of atmospheric bromine, highlighting the importance of implementing these emissions in climate models. The simulated mean oceanic concentrations align well with observations, while the mean atmospheric values are lower than the observed ones. Modelled annual mean emissions mostly occur from the sea to the air and are driven by oceanic concentrations, sea surface temperature, and wind speed, which depend on season and location.
Zhihong Zhuo, Herman F. Fuglestvedt, Matthew Toohey, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6233–6249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work simulated volcanic eruptions with varied eruption source parameters under different initial conditions with a fully coupled Earth system model. We show that initial atmospheric conditions control the meridional distribution of volcanic volatiles and modulate volcanic forcing and subsequent climate and environmental impacts of tropical and Northern Hemisphere extratropical eruptions. This highlights the potential for predicting these impacts as early as the first post-eruption month.
Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas J. Aubry, Claudia Timmreck, Anja Schmidt, Lieven Clarisse, Fred Prata, Nicolas Theys, Andrew T. Prata, Graham Mann, Hyundeok Choi, Simon Carn, Richard Rigby, Susan C. Loughlin, and John A. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5765–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2019 Raikoke eruption (Kamchatka, Russia) generated one of the largest emissions of particles and gases into the stratosphere since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The Volcano Response (VolRes) initiative, an international effort, provided a platform for the community to share information about this eruption and assess its climate impact. The eruption led to a minor global surface cooling of 0.02 °C in 2020 which is negligible relative to warming induced by human greenhouse gas emissions.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Elena García-Bustamante, Philip de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, and Hugo Beltrami
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using land components that are too shallow to constrain land heat uptake. Deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has an important impact on the climate. There are theories that freshening of the ocean might cause the AMOC to cross a tipping point (TP) beyond which recovery is difficult; however, it is unclear whether TPs exist in global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC tipping points and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP).
Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Guangyu Liu, Toshihiko Hirooka, Nawo Eguchi, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3493–3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3493-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3493-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurred in September 2019 in the Southern Hemisphere was analyzed. A large warming and decelerated westerly winds were observed in the southern polar region. Since a reversal from westerly to easterly winds did not take place SSW2019 was classified as a minor SSW. The total wave forcing and the contribution from PW1 were larger in 2019. The strong and long-lasting planetary-scale waves with zonal wavenumber 1 played a role in SSW2019.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the comprehensive Earth system model, MPI-ESM1.2, we explore the global Holocene vegetation changes and interpret them in terms of the Holocene climate change. The model results reveal that most of the Holocene vegetation transitions seen outside the high northern latitudes can be attributed to modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoons.
Paul D. Hamer, Virginie Marécal, Ryan Hossaini, Michel Pirre, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Franziska Ziska, Andreas Engel, Stephan Sala, Timo Keber, Harald Bönisch, Elliot Atlas, Kirstin Krüger, Martyn Chipperfield, Valery Catoire, Azizan A. Samah, Marcel Dorf, Phang Siew Moi, Hans Schlager, and Klaus Pfeilsticker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16955–16984, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16955-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Bromoform is a stratospheric ozone-depleting gas released by seaweed and plankton transported to the stratosphere via convection in the tropics. We study the chemical interactions of bromoform and its derivatives within convective clouds using a cloud-scale model and observations. Our findings are that soluble bromine gases are efficiently washed out and removed within the convective clouds and that most bromine is transported vertically to the upper troposphere in the form of bromoform.
Elizaveta Malinina, Alexei Rozanov, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandra Wallis, Carlo Arosio, Felix Wrana, Claudia Timmreck, Christian von Savigny, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14871–14891, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the paper, changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption were analyzed using OMPS-LP observations. The eruption was also simulated with the MAECHAM5-HAM global climate model. Generally, the model and observations agree very well. We attribute the good consistency of the results to a precisely determined altitude and mass of the volcanic injection, as well as nudging of the meteorological data. The radiative forcing from the eruption was estimated to be −0.13 W m−2.
Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Davide Zanchettin, Stefan Brönnimann, Elin Lundstad, and Rob Wilson
Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1809 eruption is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. We demonstrate that climate model simulations of the 1809 eruption show generally good agreement with many large-scale temperature reconstructions and early instrumental records for a range of radiative forcing estimates. In terms of explaining the spatially heterogeneous and temporally delayed Northern Hemisphere cooling suggested by tree-ring networks, the investigation remains open.
Oliver Gutjahr, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Johann H. Jungclaus, Dian A. Putrasahan, Katja Lohmann, and Jin-Song von Storch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2317–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare four ocean vertical mixing schemes in 100-year coupled simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) and analyse their model biases. Overall, the mixing schemes modify biases in the ocean interior that vary with region and variable but produce a similar global bias pattern. We therefore cannot classify any scheme as superior but conclude that the chosen mixing scheme may be important for regional biases.
Clarissa Alicia Kroll, Sally Dacie, Alon Azoulay, Hauke Schmidt, and Claudia Timmreck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6565–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic forcing is counteracted by stratospheric water vapor (SWV) entering the stratosphere as a consequence of aerosol-induced cold-point warming. We find that depending on the emission strength, aerosol profile height and season of the eruption, up to 4 % of the tropical aerosol forcing can be counterbalanced. A power function relationship between cold-point warming/SWV forcing and AOD in the yearly average is found, allowing us to estimate the SWV forcing for comparable eruptions.
Ulrike Niemeier, Felix Riede, and Claudia Timmreck
Clim. Past, 17, 633–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 13 kyr BP Laacher See eruption impacted local environments, human communities and climate. We have simulated the evolution of its fine ash and sulfur cloud such that it reflects the empirically known ash distribution. In our models, the heating of the ash causes a mesocyclone which changes the dispersion of the cloud itself, resulting in enhanced transport to low latitudes. This may partially explain why no Laacher See ash has yet been found in Greenlandic ice cores.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Jonathon S. Wright, Xiaoyi Sun, Paul Konopka, Kirstin Krüger, Bernard Legras, Andrea M. Molod, Susann Tegtmeier, Guang J. Zhang, and Xi Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8989–9030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8989-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8989-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
High clouds are influential in tropical climate. Although reanalysis cloud fields are essentially model products, they are indirectly constrained by observations and offer global coverage with direct links to advanced water and energy cycle metrics, giving them many useful applications. We describe how high cloud fields are generated in reanalyses, assess their realism and reliability in the tropics, and evaluate how differences in these fields affect other aspects of the reanalysis state.
Susann Tegtmeier, Elliot Atlas, Birgit Quack, Franziska Ziska, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7103–7123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7103-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate emissions of brominated gases from the ocean and their contribution to stratospheric ozone depletion. Once in the atmosphere, these gases usually break down in less than 6 months. Their impact on the ozone layer depends on the prevailing atmospheric circulation, since transport to the stratosphere requires uplift. We combine aircraft and ship observations with atmospheric modelling to analyse how, where, and when these gases are transported from the ocean into the stratosphere.
Hans Brenna, Steffen Kutterolf, Michael J. Mills, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6521–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Los Chocoyos supereruption (84 000 years ago) in Guatemala was one of the largest volcanic events of the last 100 000 years. This eruption released enormous amounts of sulfur, which cooled the climate, as well as chlorine and bromine, which destroyed the ozone in the stratosphere. We have simulated this eruption by using an advanced chemistry–climate model. We found a collapse in the ozone layer lasting more than 10 years, increased surface–UV radiation, and a 30-year climate-cooling period.
Camilo Melo-Aguilar, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, Norman Steinert, Johann H. Jungclaus, Jorge Navarro, and Pedro J. Roldán-Gómez
Clim. Past, 16, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-453-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores potential sources of bias on borehole-based temperature reconstruction from both methodological and physical factors using pseudo-proxy experiments that consider ensembles of simulations from the Community Earth System Model. The results indicate that both methodological and physical factors may have an impact on the estimation of the recent temperature trends at different spatial scales. Internal variability arises also as an important issue influencing pseudo-proxy results.
Susann Tegtmeier, James Anstey, Sean Davis, Rossana Dragani, Yayoi Harada, Ioana Ivanciu, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Kirstin Krüger, Bernard Legras, Craig Long, James S. Wang, Krzysztof Wargan, and Jonathon S. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 753–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical tropopause layer is an important atmospheric region right in between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We evaluate the representation of this layer in reanalyses data sets, which create a complete picture of the state of Earth's atmosphere using atmospheric modeling and available observations. The recent reanalyses show realistic temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer. However, where the temperature is lowest, the so-called cold point, the reanalyses are too cold.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, and Timothy Shanahan
Clim. Past, 16, 117–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-117-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-117-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the end of the African humid period (AHP) in a transient Holocene simulation performed with the comprehensive Earth system model MPI-ESM1.2. The model reproduces the time-transgressive end of the AHP evident in proxy data and indicates that changes in moisture can be attributed to the retreat of the summer monsoon and to changes in the extratropical troughs. The spatially varying impact of these systems imposes regionally different responses to the Holocene insolation change.
Tine Nilsen, Dmitry V. Divine, Annika Hofgaard, Andreas Born, Johann Jungclaus, and Igor Drobyshev
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-123, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Using a set of three climate model simulations we cannot find a consistent relationship between atmospheric conditions favorable for forest fire activity in northern Scandinavia and weaker ocean circulation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre on seasonal timescales. In the literature there is support of such a relationship for longer timescales. With the motivation to improve seasonal prediction systems, we conclude that the gyre circulation alone does not indicate forthcoming model drought.
Ulrike Niemeier, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10379–10390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In 1963 Mt. Agung, Indonesia, showed unrest for several months. During this period,
two medium-sized eruptions injected SO2 into the stratosphere. Recent volcanic emission datasets include only one large eruption phase. Therefore, we compared model experiments, with (a) one larger eruption and (b) two eruptions as observed. The evolution of the volcanic cloud differs significantly between the two experiments. Both climatic eruptions should be taken into account.
Oliver Gutjahr, Dian Putrasahan, Katja Lohmann, Johann H. Jungclaus, Jin-Song von Storch, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, and Achim Stössel
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3241–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse how climatic mean states of the atmosphere and ocean change with increasing the horizontal model resolution of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) and how they are affected by the representation of vertical mixing in the ocean. It is in particular a high-resolution ocean that reduces biases not only in the ocean but also in the atmosphere. The vertical mixing scheme affects the strength and stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Hanna Paulsen, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Katharina D. Six, and Irene Stemmler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1283–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use an Earth system model to study the effects of light absorption by marine cyanobacteria on climate. We find that cyanobacteria have a considerable cooling effect on tropical SST with implications for ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns as well as for climate variability. The results indicate the importance of considering phytoplankton light absorption in climate models, and specifically highlight the role of cyanobacteria due to their regulative effect on tropical SST and climate.
Alina Fiehn, Birgit Quack, Irene Stemmler, Franziska Ziska, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11973–11990, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11973-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11973-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic very short-lived substances, VSLS, contribute to stratospheric halogen loading and ozone depletion. We created bromoform emission inventories with monthly resolution for the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific and modeled the atmospheric transport of bromoform with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART/ERA-Interim. Results underline that the seasonal and regional stratospheric bromine entrainment critically depends on the seasonality and spatial distribution of the VSLS emissions.
Claudia Timmreck, Graham W. Mann, Valentina Aquila, Rene Hommel, Lindsay A. Lee, Anja Schmidt, Christoph Brühl, Simon Carn, Mian Chin, Sandip S. Dhomse, Thomas Diehl, Jason M. English, Michael J. Mills, Ryan Neely, Jianxiong Sheng, Matthew Toohey, and Debra Weisenstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2581–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes the experimental design of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). ISA-MIP will improve understanding of stratospheric aerosol processes, chemistry, and dynamics and constrain climate impacts of background aerosol variability and small and large volcanic eruptions. It will help to asses the stratospheric aerosol contribution to the early 21st century global warming hiatus period and the effects from hypothetical geoengineering schemes.
Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, 2018
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Cathleen Schlundt, Susann Tegtmeier, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Astrid Bracher, Wee Cheah, Kirstin Krüger, Birgit Quack, and Christa A. Marandino
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10837–10854, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10837-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10837-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, oxygenated volatile organic carbon (OVOC) in the ocean and overlaying atmosphere in the western Pacific Ocean has been measured. OVOCs are important for atmospheric chemistry. They are involved in ozone production in the upper troposphere (UT), and they have a climate cooling effect. We showed that phytoplankton was an important source for OVOCs in the surface ocean, and when OVOCs are emitted into the atmosphere, they could reach the UT and might influence ozone formation.
Alina Fiehn, Birgit Quack, Helmke Hepach, Steffen Fuhlbrügge, Susann Tegtmeier, Matthew Toohey, Elliot Atlas, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6723–6741, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6723-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6723-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs) are naturally produced in the ocean and emitted to the atmosphere. In the stratosphere, these compounds can have a significant influence on the ozone layer and climate. During a research cruise in the west Indian Ocean, we found an important source region of halogenated VSLSs during the Asian summer monsoon. Modeling the transport from the ocean to the stratosphere we found two main pathways, one over the Indian Ocean and one over northern India.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Jonathon S. Wright, Gloria L. Manney, Lesley J. Gray, James Anstey, Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, Edwin P. Gerber, V. Lynn Harvey, Michaela I. Hegglin, Cameron R. Homeyer, John A. Knox, Kirstin Krüger, Alyn Lambert, Craig S. Long, Patrick Martineau, Andrea Molod, Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Michelle L. Santee, Susann Tegtmeier, Simon Chabrillat, David G. H. Tan, David R. Jackson, Saroja Polavarapu, Gilbert P. Compo, Rossana Dragani, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Yayoi Harada, Chiaki Kobayashi, Will McCarty, Kazutoshi Onogi, Steven Pawson, Adrian Simmons, Krzysztof Wargan, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, and Cheng-Zhi Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1417–1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), review key concepts and elements of atmospheric reanalysis systems, and summarize the technical details of and differences among 11 of these systems. This work supports scientific studies and intercomparisons of reanalysis products by collecting these background materials and technical details into a single reference. We also address several common misunderstandings and points of confusion regarding reanalyses.
Sinikka T. Lennartz, Christa A. Marandino, Marc von Hobe, Pau Cortes, Birgit Quack, Rafel Simo, Dennis Booge, Andrea Pozzer, Tobias Steinhoff, Damian L. Arevalo-Martinez, Corinna Kloss, Astrid Bracher, Rüdiger Röttgers, Elliot Atlas, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 385–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-385-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-385-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present new sea surface and marine boundary layer measurements of carbonyl sulfide, the most abundant sulfur gas in the atmosphere, and calculate an oceanic emission estimate. Our results imply that oceanic emissions are very unlikely to account for the missing source in the atmospheric budget that is currently discussed for OCS.
Matthew Toohey, Bjorn Stevens, Hauke Schmidt, and Claudia Timmreck
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4049–4070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on the Earth's climate. The Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) volcanic forcing generator provides a tool whereby the optical properties of volcanic aerosols can be included in climate model simulations in a self-consistent, complete, and flexible manner. EVA is based on satellite observations of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption but can be applied to any real or hypothetical eruption of interest.
Jonathan M. Gregory, Nathaelle Bouttes, Stephen M. Griffies, Helmuth Haak, William J. Hurlin, Johann Jungclaus, Maxwell Kelley, Warren G. Lee, John Marshall, Anastasia Romanou, Oleg A. Saenko, Detlef Stammer, and Michael Winton
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3993–4017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
As a consequence of greenhouse gas emissions, changes in ocean temperature, salinity, circulation and sea level are expected in coming decades. Among the models used for climate projections for the 21st century, there is a large spread in projections of these effects. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate and explain this spread by prescribing a common set of changes in the input of heat, water and wind stress to the ocean in the participating models.
Steffen Fuhlbrügge, Birgit Quack, Elliot Atlas, Alina Fiehn, Helmke Hepach, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12205–12217, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12205-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12205-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents novel observations of the very short lived substances (VSLSs) bromoform, dibromomethane and methyl iodide with high-resolution meteorological measurements and Lagrangian transport in the Peruvian upwelling. With a simple source–loss estimate we identified VSLS abundances below the trade inversion to be significantly influenced by advection of regional sources, underscoring the importance of oceanic upwelling and trade winds on the atmospheric distribution of VSLS emission.
Helmke Hepach, Birgit Quack, Susann Tegtmeier, Anja Engel, Astrid Bracher, Steffen Fuhlbrügge, Luisa Galgani, Elliot L. Atlas, Johannes Lampel, Udo Frieß, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12219–12237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12219-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12219-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present surface seawater measurements of bromo- and iodocarbons, which are involved in numerous atmospheric processes such as tropospheric and stratospheric ozone chemistry, from the highly productive Peruvian upwelling. By combining trace gas measurements, characterization of organic matter and phytoplankton species, and tropospheric modelling, we show that large amounts of iodocarbons produced from the pool of organic matter may contribute strongly to local tropospheric iodine loading.
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
R. Hossaini, P. K. Patra, A. A. Leeson, G. Krysztofiak, N. L. Abraham, S. J. Andrews, A. T. Archibald, J. Aschmann, E. L. Atlas, D. A. Belikov, H. Bönisch, L. J. Carpenter, S. Dhomse, M. Dorf, A. Engel, W. Feng, S. Fuhlbrügge, P. T. Griffiths, N. R. P. Harris, R. Hommel, T. Keber, K. Krüger, S. T. Lennartz, S. Maksyutov, H. Mantle, G. P. Mills, B. Miller, S. A. Montzka, F. Moore, M. A. Navarro, D. E. Oram, K. Pfeilsticker, J. A. Pyle, B. Quack, A. D. Robinson, E. Saikawa, A. Saiz-Lopez, S. Sala, B.-M. Sinnhuber, S. Taguchi, S. Tegtmeier, R. T. Lidster, C. Wilson, and F. Ziska
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9163–9187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, 2016
Anastasios Matsikaris, Martin Widmann, and Johann Jungclaus
Clim. Past, 12, 1555–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1555-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1555-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have assimilated proxy-based (PAGES 2K) and instrumental (HadCRUT3v) observations into a General Circulation Model (MPI-ESM-CR). Assimilating instrumental data improves the performance of Data Assimilation. No skill on small spatial scales is however found for either of the two schemes. Errors in the assimilated data are therefore not the main reason for this lack of skill; continental mean temperatures cannot provide skill on small spatial scales in palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Steffen Fuhlbrügge, Birgit Quack, Susann Tegtmeier, Elliot Atlas, Helmke Hepach, Qiang Shi, Stefan Raimund, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7569–7585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7569-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7569-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel estimate for the contribution of oceanic VSLS emissions to the atmospheric boundary layer and free troposphere during the SHIVA-Sonne cruise in the South China and Sulu seas in 2011. While oceanic emissions of CHBr3 and CH3I showed a significant contribution to their atmospheric abundances, atmospheric CH2Br2 appeared to be largely advected. Convective activity in the region can furthermore lead to low VSLS boundary layer mixing ratios despite high oceanic emissions.
A. Laakso, H. Kokkola, A.-I. Partanen, U. Niemeier, C. Timmreck, K. E. J. Lehtinen, H. Hakkarainen, and H. Korhonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 305–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-305-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-305-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have studied the impacts of a volcanic eruption during solar radiation management (SRM) using an aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM-SALSA and an Earth system model MPI-ESM. A volcanic eruption during stratospheric sulfur geoengineering would lead to larger particles and smaller amount of new particles than if an volcano erupts in normal atmospheric conditions. Thus, volcanic eruption during SRM would lead to only a small additional cooling which would last for a significantly shorter period.
S. Tegtmeier, F. Ziska, I. Pisso, B. Quack, G. J. M. Velders, X. Yang, and K. Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13647–13663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13647-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13647-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
At present, man-made halogens and natural oceanic substances both contribute to the observed ozone depletion. Emissions of the anthropogenic halogens have been reduced, whereas emissions of the natural substances are expected to increase in future climate due to anthropogenic activities affecting oceanic processes. We assess the impact of these oceanic substances on ozone by weighting their emissions with their potential to destroy ozone for current conditions and future projections.
S. T. Lennartz, G. Krysztofiak, C. A. Marandino, B.-M. Sinnhuber, S. Tegtmeier, F. Ziska, R. Hossaini, K. Krüger, S. A. Montzka, E. Atlas, D. E. Oram, T. Keber, H. Bönisch, and B. Quack
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11753–11772, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11753-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11753-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Marine-produced short-lived trace gases such as halocarbons and DMS significantly impact atmospheric chemistry. To assess this impact on ozone depletion and the radiative budget, it is critical that their marine emissions in atmospheric chemistry models are quantified as accurately as possible. We show that calculating emissions online with an interactive atmosphere improves the agreement with current observations and should be employed regularly in models where marine sources are important.
U. Niemeier and C. Timmreck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9129–9141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of sulfur dioxide is considered as an option for solar radiation management. We have calculated the effects of SO2 injections up to 100 Tg(S)/y. Our calculations show that the forcing efficiency of the injection decays exponentially. This result implies that SO2 injections in the order of 6 times Mt. Pinatubo eruptions per year are required to keep temperatures constant at that anticipated for 2020, whilst maintaining business as usual emission conditions.
R. Hommel, C. Timmreck, M. A. Giorgetta, and H. F. Graf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5557–5584, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5557-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5557-2015, 2015
N. Sudarchikova, U. Mikolajewicz, C. Timmreck, D. O'Donnell, G. Schurgers, D. Sein, and K. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 765–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, 2015
K. Lohmann, J. Mignot, H. R. Langehaug, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Matei, O. H. Otterå, Y. Q. Gao, T. L. Mjell, U. S. Ninnemann, and H. F. Kleiven
Clim. Past, 11, 203–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-203-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We use model simulations to investigate mechanisms of similar Iceland--Scotland overflow (outflow from the Nordic seas) and North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, suggested from palaeo-reconstructions (Mjell et al., 2015). Our results indicate the influence of Nordic Seas surface temperature on the pressure gradient across the Iceland--Scotland ridge, not a large-scale link through the meridional overturning circulation, is responsible for the (simulated) co-variability.
A. Matsikaris, M. Widmann, and J. Jungclaus
Clim. Past, 11, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We compare an off-line and an on-line ensemble-based data assimilation method, for the climate of the 17th century. Both schemes perform better than the simulations without DA, and similar skill on the continental and hemispheric scales is found. This indicates either a lack of control of the slow components in our setup or a lack of skill in the information propagation on decadal timescales. The temporal consistency of the analysis in the on-line method makes it generally more preferable.
M. Toohey, K. Krüger, M. Bittner, C. Timmreck, and H. Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13063–13079, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13063-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system model simulations are used to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, e.g. the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex. We find that mechanisms linking aerosol heating and high-latitude dynamics are not as direct as often assumed; high-latitude effects result from changes in stratospheric circulation and related vertical motions. The simulated responses also show evidence of being sensitive to the structure of the volcanic forcing used.
D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, C. Timmreck, J. Bader, A. Beitsch, H.-F. Graf, D. Notz, and J. H. Jungclaus
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 223–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014, 2014
M. Rex, I. Wohltmann, T. Ridder, R. Lehmann, K. Rosenlof, P. Wennberg, D. Weisenstein, J. Notholt, K. Krüger, V. Mohr, and S. Tegtmeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4827–4841, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4827-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4827-2014, 2014
K. Lohmann, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Matei, J. Mignot, M. Menary, H. R. Langehaug, J. Ba, Y. Gao, O. H. Otterå, W. Park, and S. Lorenz
Ocean Sci., 10, 227–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-227-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-227-2014, 2014
H. Hepach, B. Quack, F. Ziska, S. Fuhlbrügge, E. L. Atlas, K. Krüger, I. Peeken, and D. W. R. Wallace
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1255–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1255-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1255-2014, 2014
S. Tegtmeier, K. Krüger, B. Quack, E. Atlas, D. R. Blake, H. Boenisch, A. Engel, H. Hepach, R. Hossaini, M. A. Navarro, S. Raimund, S. Sala, Q. Shi, and F. Ziska
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11869–11886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11869-2013, 2013
R. Hossaini, H. Mantle, M. P. Chipperfield, S. A. Montzka, P. Hamer, F. Ziska, B. Quack, K. Krüger, S. Tegtmeier, E. Atlas, S. Sala, A. Engel, H. Bönisch, T. Keber, D. Oram, G. Mills, C. Ordóñez, A. Saiz-Lopez, N. Warwick, Q. Liang, W. Feng, F. Moore, B. R. Miller, V. Marécal, N. A. D. Richards, M. Dorf, and K. Pfeilsticker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11819–11838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11819-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11819-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, and D. Zanchettin
Clim. Past, 9, 2471–2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, 2013
F. Ziska, B. Quack, K. Abrahamsson, S. D. Archer, E. Atlas, T. Bell, J. H. Butler, L. J. Carpenter, C. E. Jones, N. R. P. Harris, H. Hepach, K. G. Heumann, C. Hughes, J. Kuss, K. Krüger, P. Liss, R. M. Moore, A. Orlikowska, S. Raimund, C. E. Reeves, W. Reifenhäuser, A. D. Robinson, C. Schall, T. Tanhua, S. Tegtmeier, S. Turner, L. Wang, D. Wallace, J. Williams, H. Yamamoto, S. Yvon-Lewis, and Y. Yokouchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8915–8934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8915-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8915-2013, 2013
C. A. Marandino, S. Tegtmeier, K. Krüger, C. Zindler, E. L. Atlas, F. Moore, and H. W. Bange
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8427–8437, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8427-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8427-2013, 2013
P. D. Hamer, V. Marécal, R. Hossaini, M. Pirre, N. Warwick, M. Chipperfield, A. A. Samah, N. Harris, A. Robinson, B. Quack, A. Engel, K. Krüger, E. Atlas, K. Subramaniam, D. Oram, Emma C. Leedham Elvidge, G. Mills, K. Pfeilsticker, S. Sala, T. Keber, H. Bönisch, L. K. Peng, M. S. M. Nadzir, P. T. Lim, A. Mujahid, A. Anton, H. Schlager, V. Catoire, G. Krysztofiak, S. Fühlbrügge, M. Dorf, and W. T. Sturges
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-20611-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-20611-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
S. Fuhlbrügge, K. Krüger, B. Quack, E. Atlas, H. Hepach, and F. Ziska
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6345–6357, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6345-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6345-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013
K. Großmann, U. Frieß, E. Peters, F. Wittrock, J. Lampel, S. Yilmaz, J. Tschritter, R. Sommariva, R. von Glasow, B. Quack, K. Krüger, K. Pfeilsticker, and U. Platt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3363–3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3363-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3363-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
S. Tietsche, D. Notz, J. H. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke
Ocean Sci., 9, 19–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-19-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-19-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Documentary evidence of urban droughts and their impact in the eastern Netherlands: the cases of Deventer and Zutphen, 1500–1795
The climate in Poland (central Europe) in the first half of the last millennium, revisited
Climatic and societal impacts in Scandinavia following the 536 and 540 CE volcanic double event
A Bayesian approach to historical climatology for the Burgundian Low Countries in the 15th century
A pseudoproxy assessment of why climate field reconstruction methods perform the way they do in time and space
China's historical record when searching for tropical cyclones corresponding to Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts over the past 2 kyr
On-line and off-line data assimilation in palaeoclimatology: a case study
Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium
Dániel Johannes Moerman
Clim. Past, 20, 1721–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article provides a first look into the impact of drought in two cities in the eastern Netherlands from 1500 to 1795 on the basis of municipal records. It concludes that the impact of drought was sometimes similar but also different for both cities when focusing on specific aspects, such as water shortage and navigation. This strengthens the view that the impact of droughts could differ highly on a local level, which necessitates more emphasis on regional and local drought reconstructions.
Rajmund Przybylak, Piotr Oliński, Marcin Koprowski, Elżbieta Szychowska-Krąpiec, Marek Krąpiec, Aleksandra Pospieszyńska, and Radosław Puchałka
Clim. Past, 19, 2389–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2389-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2389-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The present paper upgrades our knowledge of Poland’s climate in the period 1001–1500 using multiproxy data. Four new climate reconstructions have been constructed – three based on dendrochronological data (since the 12th century) and one on documentary evidence (since the 15th century). The results should help improve the knowledge of climate change in Europe, particularly in central Europe.
Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Chantal Camenisch, Fernando Jaume-Santero, Sam White, Qing Pei, Ralf Hand, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2449–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate climate reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.
Sooin Yun, Jason E. Smerdon, Bo Li, and Xianyang Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 2583–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2583-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) estimate spatiotemporal climate conditions hundreds to thousands of years into the past. Assessing CFR skills is critical for improving their interpretation and ultimately for deriving better CFR estimates. We apply new methods for assessing spatiotemporal skill using formalized null hypotheses to derive a detailed assessment of why CFR skill varies across multiple methods, with implications for improving future CFR estimates.
Huei-Fen Chen, Yen-Chu Liu, Chih-Wen Chiang, Xingqi Liu, Yu-Min Chou, and Hui-Juan Pan
Clim. Past, 15, 279–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
China’s historical typhoon data show that (1) the tracks of typhoons correspond to the north–southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which show a nearly 30-year and a 60-year cycle during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and (2) paleotyphoons made landfall in mainland China 1 month earlier during the Medieval Warm Period than during the LIA.
A. Matsikaris, M. Widmann, and J. Jungclaus
Clim. Past, 11, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We compare an off-line and an on-line ensemble-based data assimilation method, for the climate of the 17th century. Both schemes perform better than the simulations without DA, and similar skill on the continental and hemispheric scales is found. This indicates either a lack of control of the slow components in our setup or a lack of skill in the information propagation on decadal timescales. The temporal consistency of the analysis in the on-line method makes it generally more preferable.
Y. Peng, C. Shen, H. Cheng, and Y. Xu
Clim. Past, 10, 1079–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1079-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1079-2014, 2014
Cited articles
Anchukaitis, K. J., Breitenmoser, P., Briffa, K. R., Buchwal, A., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R., D'arrigo, R. D., Esper, J., Evans, M. N., Frank, D., Grudd, H., Gunnarson, B. E., Hughes, M. K., Kirdyanov, A. V., Körner, C., Krusic, P. J., Luckman, B., Melvin, T. M., Salzer, M. W., Shashkin, A. V., Timmreck, C., Vaganov, E. A., and Wilson, R. J. S.: Tree rings and volcanic cooling, Nat. Geosci., 5, 836–837, 2012. a
Baillie, M. G.: Proposed re-dating of the European ice core chronology by seven years prior to the 7th century AD, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L15813, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034755, 2008. a
Bala, G., Duffy, P., and Taylor, K.: Impact of geoengineering schemes on the
global hydrological cycle, P. Natl. Acad. Sci.,
105, 7664–7669, 2008. a
Bassett, J. R.: Tree growth as affected by soil moisture availability, Soil
Sci. Soc. Am. J., 28, 436–438, 1964. a
Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., and Sienz, F.: Using a large ensemble
of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical
response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 43, 9324–9332, 2016a. a
Bittner, M., Timmreck, C., Schmidt, H., Toohey, M., and Krüger, K.: The
impact of wave-mean flow interaction on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex
after tropical volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 5281–5297, 2016b. a
Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Schweingruber, F. H., and Osborn, T. J.: Influence
of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past
600 years, Nature, 393, 450–455, 1998. a
Büntgen, U.: Northern Hemisphere 2,000 year tree-ring ensemble temperature reconstructions, NOAA/World Data Service for Paleoclimatology archive [data set], https://doi.org/10.25921/9986-r929, 2021. a
Büntgen, U., Tegel, W., Nicolussi, K., McCormick, M., Frank, D., Trouet, V., Kaplan, J. O., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., and Esper, J.: 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility, Science, 331, 578–582, 2011. a
Büntgen, U., Myglan, V. S., Ljungqvist, F. C., McCormick, M., Di Cosmo, N., Sigl, M., Jungclaus, J., Wagner, S., Krusic, P. J., Esper, J., Kaplan, J. O.,
de Vaan, M. A. C., Luterbacher, J., Wacker, L., Tegel, W., and Kirdyanov, A. V.: Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD, Nat. Geosci., 9, 231–236, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Büntgen, U., Arseneault, D., Boucher, É., Churakova, O. V., Gennaretti,
F., Crivellaro, A., Hughes, M. K., Kirdyanov, A. V., Klippel, L., Krusic,
P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Ljungqvist, F. C., Ludescher, J., McCormick, M.,
Myglan, V. S., Nicolussi, K., Piermattei, A., Oppenheimer, C., Reinig, F., Sigl, M., Vaganov, E. A., and Esper, J.: Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history, Dendrochronologia, 64, 125757, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757, 2020. a
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim, J., Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., McDaniel, B. A., Polvani, L.,
Reichler, T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L., Yoden, S.,
Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S., and Watanabe, S.: On
the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the
CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2494–2505,
2013. a
Coupe, J. and Robock, A.: The Influence of Stratospheric Soot and Sulfate Aerosols on the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034513, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034513, 2021. a
Crowley, T. J. and Unterman, M. B.: Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 187–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013, 2013. a
Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmbH (DKRZ): ESGF database portal, last update, https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/ (last access: 13 June 2022), 2015. a
Driscoll, S., Bozzo, A., Gray, L. J., Robock, A., and Stenchikov, G.: Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following
volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D17105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017607, 2012. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Zorita, E., Tett, S., Casty, C., and Wanner, H.: European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027992, 2007. a, b
Gao, C., Oman, L., Robock, A., and Stenchikov, G. L.: Atmospheric volcanic
loading derived from bipolar ice cores: Accounting for the spatial
distribution of volcanic deposition, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D09109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007461, 2007. a
Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past
1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D23111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008. a
Gleckler, P., AchutaRao, K., Gregory, J., Santer, B., Taylor, K., and Wigley,
T.: Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content
and thermal expansion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026771, 2006. a
Halloran, P. R., Hall, I. R., Menary, M., Reynolds, D. J., Scourse, J. D.,
Screen, J. A., Bozzo, A., Dunstone, N., Phipps, S., Schurer, A. P., Sueyoshi, T., Zhou, T., and Garry, F.:
Natural drivers of multidecadal Arctic sea ice variability over the last
millennium, Sci. Rep., 10, 1–9, 2020. a
Hegerl, G. C., Crowley, T. J., Hyde, W. T., and Frame, D. J.: Climate
sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven
centuries, Nature, 440, 1029–1032, 2006. a
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J. O., Kennedy, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020. a
Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., Schurer, A. P., and Zhang, X.: The effect of
volcanic eruptions on global precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 8770–8786, 2013. a
Jungclaus, J., Fischer, N., Haak, H., Lohmann, K., Marotzke, J., Matei, D.,
Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., and Von Storch, J.: Characteristics of the ocean
simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean
component of the MPI-Earth system model, J. Adv. Model.
Earth Syst., 5, 422–446, 2013. a
Jungclaus, J. H., Bard, E., Baroni, M., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Chini, L. P., Egorova, T., Evans, M., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Hurtt, G. C., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Khodri, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Krivova, N., LeGrande, A. N., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Man, W., Maycock, A. C., Meinshausen, M., Moberg, A., Muscheler, R., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. I., Phipps, S. J., Pongratz, J., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, G. A., Schmidt, H., Schmutz, W., Schurer, A., Shapiro, A. I., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solanki, S. K., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Usoskin, I. G., Wagner, S., Wu, C.-J., Yeo, K. L., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, Q., and Zorita, E.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f
Jungclaus, J. H., Lohmann, K., and Zanchettin, D.: Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 10, 2201–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, 2014. a
Kageyama, M., Albani, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Marti, O., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Roche, D. M., Tarasov, L., Zhang, X., Brady, E. C., Haywood, A. M., LeGrande, A. N., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Renssen, H., Tomas, R. A., Zhang, Q., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Cao, J., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Volodin, E., Yoshida, K., Zhang, X., and Zheng, W.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017. a
Klein Goldewijk, K.: A historical land use data set for the Holocene, HYDE 3.2,
EGUGA, pp. EPSC2016–1574, 2016. a
Larsen, L. B., Vinther, B. M., Briffa, K. R., Melvin, T. M., Clausen, H. B., Jones, P. D., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Hammer, C. U., Eronen, M., Grudd, H., Gunnarson, B. E., Hantemirov, R. M., Naurzbaev, M. M., and Nicolussi, K.: New ice core evidence for a volcanic cause of the AD 536 dust veil, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032450, 2008. a, b
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., et al.: Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information, IPCC report, Chap. 4, 2021. a
Liu, B., Liu, J., Ning, L., Sun, W., Yan, M., Zhao, C., Chen, K., and Wang, X.:
The Role of Samalas Mega Volcanic Eruption in European Summer Hydroclimate
Change, Atmosphere, 11, 1182, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111182, 2020. a
Lorenz, S.: MPI-ESM 521-680 CE ensemble, Norstore [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2022.00029, 2022. a
Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Büntgen, U., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Setting the
tree-ring record straight, Clim. Dynam., 55, 3017–3024, 2020. a
Mann, M. E.: Little ice age, Enc. Glob. Environ. Change, 1,
504–509, 2002. a
Martrat, B., Eggleston, S., Abram, N., Bothe, O., Linderholm, H., McGregor, H., Neukom, R., Phipps, S., and St George, S.: The PAGES 2k Network:
Understanding the climate of the Common Era (past 2000 years), EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 7–12 April 2019, EGU2019-16976, 2019. a
Matskovsky, V. V. and Helama, S.: Testing long-term summer temperature reconstruction based on maximum density chronologies obtained by reanalysis of tree-ring data sets from northernmost Sweden and Finland, Clim. Past, 10, 1473–1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1473-2014, 2014. a, b
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., et al.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 998–1038, 2019. a
McGregor, H. V., Evans, M. N., Goosse, H., Leduc, G., Martrat, B., Addison, J. A., Mortyn, P. G., Oppo, D. W., Seidenkrantz, M.-S., Sicre, M.-A., Phipps, S. J., Selvaraj, K., Thirumalai, K., Filipsson, H. L., and Ersek, V.: Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era, Nat. Geosci., 8, 671–677, 2015. a
Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., Krummel, P. B., Beyerle, U., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., Enting, I. G., Law, R. M., Lunder, C. R., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Reimann, S., Rubino, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., Wang, R. H. J., and Weiss, R.: Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017. a
Miller, G. H., Geirsdóttir, Á., Zhong, Y., Larsen, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Holland, M. M., Bailey, D. A., Refsnider, K. A., Lehman, S. J., Southon, J. R., Anderson, C., Björnsson, H., and Thordarson, T.: Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02708,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050168, 2012. a, b
Moreno-Chamarro, E.: Climate and ocean variability during the last millennium
in paleo-observations and Earth system model simulations, PhD thesis,
Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, 2016. a
Müller, M., Schwab, N., Schickhoff, U., Böhner, J., and Scholten, T.:
Soil temperature and soil moisture patterns in a Himalayan alpine treeline
ecotone, Arc. Antarc. Alpine Res., 48, 501–521, 2016. a
Neukom, R., Barboza, L. A., Erb, Michael P., Shi, Feng, Emile-Geay, Julien, Evans, Michael N., Franke, J., Kaufman, Darrell S., Lücke, Lucie, Rehfeld, K., Schurer, A., Zhu, F., Brönnimann, S., Hakim, G. J., Henley, B. J., Charpentier Ljungqvist, F., McKay, N., Valler, V., and von Gunten, L.: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Sci. Data, 4, 170088, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88, 2017. a
Neukom, R., Barboza, L. A., Erb, M. P., Shi, F., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Franke, J., Kaufman, D. S., Lücke, L., Rehfeld, K., Schurer, A., Zhu, F., Brönnimann, S., Hakim, G. J., Henley, B. J., Ljungqvist, F. C., McKay, N., Valler, V., and von Gunten, L.: Consistent
multi-decadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and
simulations over the Common Era, Nat. Geosci., 12, 643–649, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Plunkett, G., Sigl, M., Schwaiger, H. F., Tomlinson, E. L., Toohey, M., McConnell, J. R., Pilcher, J. R., Hasegawa, T., and Siebe, C.: No evidence for tephra in Greenland from the historic eruption of Vesuvius in 79 CE: implications for geochronology and paleoclimatology, Clim. Past, 18, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, 2022. a
Pohlmann, H., Botzet, M., Latif, M., Roesch, A., Wild, M., and Tschuck, P.:
Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM, J. Climate,
17, 4463–4472, 2004. a
Polvani, L. M., Banerjee, A., and Schmidt, A.: Northern Hemisphere continental winter warming following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption: reconciling models and observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6351–6366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019, 2019. a
Rampino, M. R., Self, S., and Stothers, R. B.: Volcanic winters, Annu. Rev.
Earth Planet. Sci., 16, 73–99, 1988. a
Rao, M. P., Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Krusic, P. J., Anchukaitis, K. J., LeGrande, A. N., Buckley, B. M., Davi, N. K., Leland, C., and Griffinand, K. L.: European and Mediterranean hydroclimate responses to tropical
volcanic forcing over the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44,
5104–5112, 2017. a
Robock, A.: Volcanic eruptions and climate, Rev. Geophys., 38,
191–219, 2000. a
Robock, A., MacMartin, D. G., Duren, R., and Christensen, M. W.: Studying
geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs, Clim. Change, 121,
445–458, 2013. a
Schneider, D. P., Ammann, C. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Kaufman, D. S.:
Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions
in the Community Climate System Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D15101
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011222, 2009. a, b, c
Schurer, A. P., Tett, S. F., and Hegerl, G. C.: Small influence of solar
variability on climate over the past millennium, Nat. Geosci., 7,
104–108, 2014. a
Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., Layman, L., Maselli, O., McGwire, K., Pasteris, D.,
Dahl-Jensen, D., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B., Edwards, R., Mulvaney, R., and Kipfstuhl, S.: A new
bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and
implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1151–1169, 2013. a
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow,
F., Büntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M., Schüpbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years,
Nature, 523, 543–549, 2015. a, b, c, d
Solomina, O. N., Bradley, R. S., Jomelli, V., Geirsdottir, A., Kaufman, D. S., Koch, J., McKay, N. P., Masiokas, M., Miller, G., Nesje, A., Nicolussi, K., Owen, L. A., Putnam, A. E., Wanner, H., Wiles, G., and Yang, B.: Glacier fluctuations during the past 2000 years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 149, 61–90, 2016. a
Stenchikov, G., Robock, A., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Hamilton, K.,
and Ramachandran, S.: Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo
eruption: Effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, ACL 28-1–ACL 28-16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002090, 2002. a
Stenchikov, G., Hamilton, K., Stouffer, R. J., Robock, A., Ramaswamy, V.,
Santer, B., and Graf, H.-F.: Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic
eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D07107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006286, 2006. a
Stenchikov, G., Delworth, T. L., Ramaswamy, V., Stouffer, R. J., Wittenberg,
A., and Zeng, F.: Volcanic signals in oceans, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 114, D16104,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011673, 2009. a
Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., Crueger, T., Rast, S.,
Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Bader, J., Block, K., Brokopf, R., Fast, I., Stefan Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Lohmann, U., Pincus, R., Reichler, T.,
and Roeckner, E.: Atmospheric
component of the MPI-M Earth system model: ECHAM6, J. Adv.
Model. Earth Syst., 5, 146–172, 2013. a
Stevenson, S., Fasullo, J. T., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Tomas, R. A., and Gao, C.:
Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical
volcanism, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, 1822–1826,
2017. a
Stevenson, S., Overpeck, J. T., Fasullo, J., Coats, S., Parsons, L.,
Otto-Bliesner, B., Ault, T., Loope, G., and Cole, J.: Climate variability,
volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes, J.
Climate, 31, 4309–4327, 2018. a
Stoffel, M., Khodri, M., Corona, C., Guillet, S., Poulain, V., Bekki, S.,
Guiot, J., Luckman, B. H., Oppenheimer, C., Lebas, N., Beniston, M., and Masson-Delmotte, V.: Estimates of
volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500
years, Nat. Geosci., 8, 784–788, 2015. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o
Stothers, R. B.: Mystery cloud of AD 536, Nature, 307, 344–345, 1984. a
Thompson, D. W. and Wallace, J. M.: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the
wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 25, 1297–1300, 1998. a
Timmreck, C., Lorenz, S. J., Crowley, T. J., Kinne, S., Raddatz, T. J., Thomas,
M. A., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Limited temperature response to the very large
AD 1258 volcanic eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21708,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040083, 2009. a
Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Zanchettin, D., Brönnimann, S., Lundstad, E., and Wilson, R.: The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case, Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021. a
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Niemeier, U., and Timmreck, C.: The influence of eruption season on the global aerosol evolution and radiative impact of tropical volcanic eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 12351–12367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12351-2011, 2011. a, b
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Bittner, M., Timmreck, C., and Schmidt, H.: The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13063–13079, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13063-2014, 2014. a
Toohey, M., Stevens, B., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4049–4070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, 2016b. a, b
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M.,
and Wilson, R.: Disproportionately strong climate forcing from extratropical
explosive volcanic eruptions, Nat. Geosci., 12, 100–107, 2019. a
Usoskin, I., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov,
G., Thébault, E., and Khokhlov, A.: Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity, Astro. Astrophys., 562, L10, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423391, 2014. a
van Dijk, E., Mørkestøl Gundersen, I., de Bode, A., Høeg, H., Loftsgarden, K., Iversen, F., Timmreck, C., Jungclaus, J., and Krüger, K.: Climate and society impacts in Scandinavia following the 536/540 CE volcanic double event, Clim. Past Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-23, in review, 2022a. a
van Dijk, E., Timmreck, C., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., and Krüger, K.: MPI-ESM 521-680 CE ensemble, NIRD [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2022.00029, 2022.
Van Loon, H. and Rogers, J. C.: The seesaw in winter temperatures between
Greenland and northern Europe. Part I: General description, Mon. Weather
Rev., 106, 296–310, 1978. a
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of
the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astro. Astrophys., 531, A6, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011. a
Wegmann, M., Brönnimann, S., Bhend, J., Franke, J., Folini, D., Wild, M.,
and Luterbacher, J.: Volcanic influence on European summer precipitation
through monsoons: possible cause for “Years without Summer”, J.
Climate, 27, 3683–3691, 2014. a
Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E.,
D'arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., Zhang, P., and Zorita, E.: Last
millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I:
The long term context, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 134, 1–18, 2016. a
Xoplaki, E., Luterbacher, J., Luther, N., Behr, L., Wagner, S., Jungclaus, J., Zorita, E., Toreti, A., Fleitmann, D., Izdebski, A., and Bloomfield, K.: Hydrological Changes in Late Antiquity: Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Socio-Economic Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean, in: Climate Change and Ancient Societies in Europe and the Near East, Springer, 533–560, 2021. a
Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Graf, H. F., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J.,
Timmreck, C., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Background conditions influence the
decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 118, 4090–4106, 2013. a
Zanchettin, D., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Schmidt, A., Gerber, E. P., Hegerl, G., Robock, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Ball, W. T., Bauer, S. E., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Mills, M., Marchand, M., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Rozanov, E., Rubino, A., Stenke, A., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016. a, b
Zhang, H., Yuan, N., Esper, J., Werner, J. P., Xoplaki, E., Büntgen, U.,
Treydte, K., and Luterbacher, J.: Modified climate with long term memory in
tree ring proxies, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 084020, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084020, 2015. a
Zhu, F., Emile-Geay, J., Hakim, G. J., King, J., and Anchukaitis, K. J.:
Resolving the differences in the simulated and reconstructed temperature
response to volcanism, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086908 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086908, 2020. a, b
Short summary
A double volcanic eruption in 536 and 540 CE caused one of the coldest decades during the last 2000 years. We analyzed new climate model simulations from that period and found a cooling of up to 2°C and a sea-ice extent up to 200 km further south. Complex interactions between sea ice and ocean circulation lead to a reduction in the northward ocean heat transport, which makes the sea ice extend further south; this in turn leads to a surface cooling up to 20 years after the eruptions.
A double volcanic eruption in 536 and 540 CE caused one of the coldest decades during the last...
