Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Dynamics of the Mediterranean droughts from 850 to 2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Christoph C. Raible
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
Woon Mi Kim and Santos Jose González-Rojí
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how and when droughts begin and end is crucial for improving predictions and developing effective mitigation strategies. This study investigates the onset and termination of soil moisture droughts in Europe, exploring their duration, seasons of occurrence, and related atmospheric circulation factors. The findings reveal noticeable differences between drought onset and termination, as well as variations in the temporal characteristics across datasets.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, Isla R. Simpson, and Daniel Kennedy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates temporal characteristics and typical circulation conditions associated with onsets and terminations of soil moisture droughts in Europe. More understanding of drought onsets and terminations can aid in improving early predictions for devastating intense droughts.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Woon Mi Kim, Richard Blender, Michael Sigl, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 2031–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
Onno Doensen, Martina Messmer, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 21, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are crucial systems in the Mediterranean. While extensively studied, their late Holocene variability is poorly understood. Using a climate model spanning 3350-years, we find Mediterranean cyclones show significant multi-decadal variability. Extreme cyclones tend to be more extreme in the central Mediterranean in terms of wind speed. Our work creates a reference baseline to better understand the impact of climate change on Mediterranean cyclones.
Woon Mi Kim and Santos Jose González-Rojí
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how and when droughts begin and end is crucial for improving predictions and developing effective mitigation strategies. This study investigates the onset and termination of soil moisture droughts in Europe, exploring their duration, seasons of occurrence, and related atmospheric circulation factors. The findings reveal noticeable differences between drought onset and termination, as well as variations in the temporal characteristics across datasets.
Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Christoph C. Raible, Michael Sigl, Johann Jungclaus, and Heinz Wanner
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The temperature in the past 4000 years consisted of warm and cold periods, initiated by external forcing. But, these periods are not consistent through time and space. We use climate models and reconstructions to study to which extent the periods are reflected in the European climate. We find that on local scales, the chaotic nature of the climate system is larger than the external forcing. This study shows that these periods have to be used very carefully when studying a local site.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, Isla R. Simpson, and Daniel Kennedy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates temporal characteristics and typical circulation conditions associated with onsets and terminations of soil moisture droughts in Europe. More understanding of drought onsets and terminations can aid in improving early predictions for devastating intense droughts.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Eric Samakinwa, Christoph C. Raible, Ralf Hand, Andrew R. Friedman, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, 2023
Publication in CP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we nudged a stand-alone ocean model MPI-OM to proxy-reconstructed SST. Based on these model simulations, we introduce new estimates of the AMOC variations during the period 1450–1780 through a 10-member ensemble simulation with a novel nudging technique. Our approach reaffirms the known mechanisms of AMOC variability and also improves existing knowledge of the interplay between the AMOC and the NAO during the AMOC's weak and strong phases.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Woon Mi Kim, Richard Blender, Michael Sigl, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 2031–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Cited articles
Alpert, P., Neeman, B., and Shay-El, Y.: Climatological analysis of
Mediterranean cyclones using ECMWF data, Tellus A, 42, 65–77, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v42i1.11860, 1990. a, b
Babst, F., Bodesheim, P., Charney, N., Friend, A. D., Girardin, M. P., Klesse, S., Moore, D. J. P., Seftigen, K., Björklund, J., Bouriaud, O., Dawson, A., DeRose, R. J., Dietze, M. C., Eckes, A. H., Enquist, B., Frank, D. C., Mahecha, M. D., Poulter, B., Record, S., Trouet, V., Turton, R. H., Zhang, Z., and Evans, M. E. K.: When tree rings go global: challenges and opportunities for retro-and prospective insight, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 197, 1–20,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.07.009, 2018. a
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns,
Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a
Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, É., Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.:
ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam.,
42, 1999–2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1783-z, 2014. a
Berg, A., Sheffield, J., and Milly, P. C.: Divergent surface and total soil
moisture projections under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44,
236–244, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071921, 2017. a, b, c
Brönnimann, S.: Impact of El Niño–southern oscillation on European
climate, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000199, 2007. a, b, c
Brönnimann, S., Xoplaki, E., Casty, C., Pauling, A., and Luterbacher, J.:
ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries, Clim. Dynam., 28,
181–197, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0175-z, 2007. a
Champion, A. J., Hodges, K. I., Bengtsson, L. O., Keenlyside, N. S., and Esch,
M.: Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather
from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones, Tellus A, 63, 893–906,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00538.x, 2011. a, b
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., Cook, B. I., and González-Rouco,
J. F.: Megadroughts in southwestern North America in ECHO-G millennial
simulations and their comparison to proxy drought reconstructions, J.
Climate, 26, 7635–7649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00603.1, 2013. a
Coats, S., Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., and Seager, R.: North American
pancontinental droughts in model simulations of the last millennium, J. Climate, 28, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00634.1, 2015. a
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B., Seager, R., Cook, E. R., and Anchukaitis,
K. J.: Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western
North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9886–9894,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070105, 2016. a
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.:
The twentieth century reanalysis project, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776, 2011 (data available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2.html, last access: 20 April 2021). a, b
Cook, B. I., Anchukaitis, K. J., Touchan, R., Meko, D. M., and Cook, E. R.:
Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900
years, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 2060–2074,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023929, 2016a. a
Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., Williams, A. P., Coats,
S., Stahle, D. W., and Díaz, J. V.: North American megadroughts in the
Common Era: Reconstructions and simulations, WIRES
Clim. Change, 7, 411–432, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.394, 2016b. a
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Frank, D., Krusic, P. J., Tegel, W., van der Schrier, G., Andreu-Hayles, L., Baillie, M., Baittinger, C., Bleicher, N., Bonde, N., Brown, D., Carrer, M., Cooper, R., Čufar, K., Dittmar, C., Esper, J., Griggs, C., Gunnarson, B., Günther, B., Gutierrez, E., Haneca, K., Helama, S., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Hofmann, J., Janda, P., Kontic, R., Köse, N., Kyncl, T., Levanič, T., Linderholm, H., Manning, S., Melvin, T. M., Miles, D., Neuwirth, B., Nicolussi, K., Nola, P., Panayotov, M., Popa, I., Rothe, A., Seftigen, K., Seim, A., Svarva, H., Svoboda, M., Thun, T., Timonen, M., Touchan, R., Trotsiuk, V., Trouet, V., Walder, F., Ważny, T., Wilson, R., and Zang, C.:
Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Sci. Adv.,
1, e1500561, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561, 2015 (data available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/19419, last access: 20 April 2021). a, b, c, d
Dai, A.: Drought under global warming: a review, WIRES Clim. Change, 2, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81, 2011. a, b, c
Deser, C., Hurrell, J. W., and Phillips, A. S.: The role of the North Atlantic
Oscillation in European climate projections, Clim. Dynam., 49,
3141–3157, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z, 2017. a
Dubrovský, M., Hayes, M., Duce, P., Trnka, M., Svoboda, M., and Zara, P.:
Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators
for the Mediterranean region, Reg. Environ. Change, 14,
1907–1919, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0562-z, 2014. a, b, c
Dünkeloh, A. and Jacobeit, J.: Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean
precipitation variability 1948–98, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1843–1866,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.973, 2003. a, b
Fasullo, J. T., Phillips, A., and Deser, C.: Evaluation of Leading Modes of
Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives, J. Climate, 33, 5527–5545,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1024.1, 2020. a, b
Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., and Dahe, Q.: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2012. a
Franke, J., Frank, D., Raible, C. C., Esper, J., and Brönnimann, S.:
Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, Nat. Clim. Change, 3,
360–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1816, 2013. a, b
Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D23111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008. a, b, c, d
García-Herrera, R., Garrido-Perez, J. M., Barriopedro, D.,
Ordóñez, C., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L.,
Sorí, R., and Yiou, P.: The European 2016/17 Drought, J.
Climate, 32, 3169–3187, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0331.1, 2019. a, b
Giorgi, F.: Climate change hot-spots, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08707,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734, 2006. a
Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P.: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Global Planet. Change, 63, 90–104,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005, 2008. a
Grinsted, A., Moore, J. C., and Jevrejeva, S.: Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 11, 561–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-561-2004, 2004. a
Haywood, A. M., Valdes, P. J., Aze, T., Barlow, N., Burke, A., Dolan, A. M.,
von der Heydt, A. S., Hill, D. J., Jamieson, S. S. R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L.,
Salzmann, U., Saupe, E., and Voss, J.: What can Palaeoclimate Modelling
do for you?, Earth Systems and Environment, 3, 1–18,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00093-1, 2019. a
Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., Perlwitz, J., Quan, X., Zhang, T., and Pegion, P.: On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought, J.
Climate, 25, 2146–2161, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1, 2011. a
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore,
J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.-M.: Extended
reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades,
validations, and intercomparisons, J. Climate, 30, 8179–8205,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1, 2017a. a, b
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore,
J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.-M.: NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 5 [data set], NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5T72FNM, 2017b. a
Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional
temperatures and precipitation, Science, 269, 676–679,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5224.676, 1995. a
Krichak, S. O. and Alpert, P.: Decadal trends in the east Atlantic–west Russia pattern and Mediterranean precipitation, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 183–192,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1124, 2005. a
Lehner, F., Coats, S., Stocker, T. F., Pendergrass, A. G., Sanderson, B. M.,
Raible, C. C., and Smerdon, J. E.: Projected drought risk in 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C warmer climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7419–7428,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074117, 2017. a, b
Li, W., Li, L., Ting, M., and Liu, Y.: Intensification of Northern Hemisphere
subtropical highs in a warming climate, Nat. Geosci., 5, 830–834,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1590, 2012. a
Lionello, P., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P., Boscolo, R., Alpert, P., Artale, V., Li,
L., Luterbacher, J., May, W., Trigo, R., Tsimplis, M., Ulbrich, U., and
Xoplaki, E.: The Mediterranean climate: An overview of the main
characteristics and issues, in: Developments in Earth and Environmental
Sciences, edited by: Lionello, P., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P., and Boscolo, R.,
vol. 4 of Mediterranean, Elsevier, 1–26,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1571-9197(06)80003-0, 2006. a, b, c, d
Lionello, P., Trigo, I. F., Gil, V., Liberato, M. L., Nissen, K. M., Pinto,
J. G., Raible, C. C., Reale, M., Tanzarella, A., Trigo, R. M., Ulbrich, S., and Ulbrich, U.:
Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region: a consensus
view among methods with different system identification and tracking
criteria, Tellus A, 68, 29391,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29391, 2016. a
Liu, W., Sun, F., Lim, W. H., Zhang, J., Wang, H., Shiogama, H., and Zhang, Y.: Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 267–283, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018, 2018. a
Ljungqvist, F. C., Seim, A., Krusic, P. J., González-Rouco, J. F., Werner,
J. P., Cook, E. R., Zorita, E., Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Destouni, G.,
García-Bustamante, E., Aguilar, C. A. M., Seftigen, K., Wang, J., Gagen,
M. H., Esper, J., Solomina, O., Fleitmann, D., and Büntgen, U.: European
warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE, Environ.
Res. Lett., 14, 084015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7e, 2019. a
Lloyd-Hughes, B.: The impracticality of a universal drought definition,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 607–611,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1025-7, 2014. a
Mariotti, A., Zeng, N., and Lau, K.-M.: Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and
ENSO – a seasonally varying relationship, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29,
1621, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014248, 2002. a, b
Mariotti, A., Zeng, N., Yoon, J.-H., Artale, V., Navarra, A., Alpert, P., and
Li, L. Z.: Mediterranean water cycle changes: transition to drier 21st
century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations, Environ.
Res. Lett., 3, 044001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044001, 2008. a, b, c, d, e
McConnell, J. R., Sigl, M., Plunkett, G., Burke, A., Kim, W. M., Raible, C. C., Wilson, A. I., Manning, J. G., Ludlow, F., Chellman, N. J., Innes, H. M., Yang, Z., Larsen, J. F., Schaefer, J. R., Kipfstuhl, S., Mojtabavi, S., Wilhelms, F., Opel, T., Meyer, H., and Steffensen, J. P.: Extreme
climate after massive eruption of Alaska's Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and
effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 15443–15449,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002722117, 2020. a, b
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J.
Hydrol., 391, 202–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012, 2010. a, b
Naumann, G., Alfieri, L., Wyser, K., Mentaschi, L., Betts, R., Carrao, H.,
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J., and Feyen, L.: Global changes in drought conditions
under different levels of warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45,
3285–3296, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076521, 2018. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L.,
Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate variability
and change since 850 CE: An ensemble approach with the Community Earth System
Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735–754,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1, 2016. a
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium: Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Parsons, L. A. and Coats, S.: Ocean-atmosphere trajectories of extended drought in Southwestern North America, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
124, 8953–8971, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030424, 2019. a, b
Parsons, L. A., Loope, G. R., Overpeck, J. T., Ault, T. R., Stouffer, R., and
Cole, J. E.: Temperature and precipitation variance in CMIP5 simulations and
paleoclimate records of the last millennium, J. Climate, 30,
8885–8912, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0863.1, 2017. a
Parsons, L. A., Coats, S., and Overpeck, J. T.: The continuum of drought in
Southwestern North America, J. Climate, 31, 8627–8643,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0010.1, 2018. a
Philandras, C. M., Nastos, P. T., Kapsomenakis, J., Douvis, K. C., Tselioudis, G., and Zerefos, C. S.: Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3235–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3235-2011, 2011. a
Previdi, M. and Liepert, B. G.: Annular modes and Hadley cell expansion under
global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031243,
2007. a
Raible, C.: On the relation between extremes of midlatitude cyclones and the
atmospheric circulation using ERA40, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07703,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029084, 2007. a
Raible, C., Luksch, U., Fraedrich, K., and Voss, R.: North Atlantic decadal
regimes in a coupled GCM simulation, Clim. Dynam., 18, 321–330, 2001. a
Raible, C., Yoshimori, M., Stocker, T., and Casty, C.: Extreme midlatitude
cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in
simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions, Clim.
Dynam., 28, 409–423, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0188-7, 2007. a, b
Raible, C. C., Luksch, U., and Fraedrich, K.: Precipitation and northern
hemisphere regimes, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 5, 43–55,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmoscilet.2003.12.001, 2003. a
Raible, C. C., Ziv, B., Saaroni, H., and Wild, M.: Winter synoptic-scale
variability over the Mediterranean Basin under future climate conditions as
simulated by the ECHAM5, Clim. Dynam., 35, 473–488,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0678-5, 2010. a, b
Raible, C. C., Bärenbold, O., and Gómez-Navarro, J. J.: Drought indices
revisited – improving and testing of drought indices in a simulation of the
last two millennia for Europe, Tellus A, 69, 1287492, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1296226, 2017. a, b, c
Rao, M. P., Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Krusic, P. J.,
Anchukaitis, K. J., LeGrande, A. N., Buckley, B. M., Davi, N. K., Leland, C.,
and Griffin, K. L.: European and Mediterranean hydroclimate responses to
tropical volcanic forcing over the last millennium, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 44, 5104–5112, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073057, 2017. a, b, c
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012. a
Seager, R., Liu, H., Henderson, N., Simpson, I., Kelley, C., Shaw, T., Kushnir, Y., and Ting, M.: Causes of Increasing Aridification of the
Mediterranean Region in Response to Rising Greenhouse Gases,
J. Climate, 27, 4655–4676, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00446.1, 2014. a, b
Seager, R., Cane, M., Henderson, N., Lee, D.-E., Abernathey, R., and Zhang, H.: Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient
consistent with rising greenhouse gases, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 517–522,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0505-x, 2019. a, b
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B.,
Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil
moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004,
2010. a, b
Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Aizpurua, P., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L., and Garcia-Herrera, R.: Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the 20th century in the Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 33–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011, 2011. a, b
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Vogt, J. V., and Barbosa, P.: The biggest drought
events in Europe from 1950 to 2012, J. Hydrol.,
3, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.01.001, 2015. a, b
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., and Vogt, J. V.: Pan-European seasonal trends and
recent changes of drought frequency and severity, Global Planet.
Change, 148, 113–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013, 2017. a, b
Stevenson, S., Overpeck, J. T., Fasullo, J., Coats, S., Parsons, L.,
Otto-Bliesner, B., Ault, T., Loope, G., and Cole, J.: Climate variability,
volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes, J.
Climate, 31, 4309–4327, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1, 2018. a, b, c
Swann, A. L.: Plants and drought in a changing climate, Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 192–201, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0097-y, 2018. a
Swann, A. L., Hoffman, F. M., Koven, C. D., and Randerson, J. T.: Plant
responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113,
10019–10024, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604581113, 2016. a, b
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93,
485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Thornthwaite, C. W.: An approach toward a rational classification of
climate, Geogr. Rev., 38, 55–94, https://doi.org/10.2307/210739, 1948. a
Trenberth, K. E.: The Definition of El Niño, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2771–2778,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Trigo, R., Osborn, T., and Corte-Real, J.: The North Atlantic Oscillation
influence on Europe: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms,
Clim. Res., 20, 9–17, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020009, 2002. a
Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G., and Pinto, J. G.: Extra-tropical cyclones in the
present and future climate: a review, Theor. Appl. Climatol.,
96, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8, 2009. a, b
Van Loon, A. F., Gleeson, T., Clark, J., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Stahl, K., Hannaford, J., Di Baldassarre, G., Teuling, A. J., Tallaksen, L. M., Uijlenhoet, R., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B., Wagener, T., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Drought in the Anthropocene, Nat. Geosci., 9, 89–91, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2646, 2016. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: El Niño and La Niña influence on droughts at
different timescales in the Iberian Peninsula, Water Resour. Res., 41, W12415,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003908, 2005. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J. I.: A
Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, J.
Climate, 23, 1696–1718, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1, 2009. a, b, c
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J. I., Angulo, M., and El Kenawy, A.: A new global 0.5 gridded dataset (1901–2006) of a
multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets
based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index, J. Hydrometeorol., 11,
1033–1043, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1224.1, 2010. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J.-I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, García-Ruiz, J. M., Azorin-Molina, C.,
Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Ricardo Trigo, Coelho, F., and Espejo, F.:
Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in
southern Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 044001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001, 2014. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Van der Schrier, G., Beguería, S., Azorin-Molina,
C., and Lopez-Moreno, J.-I.: Contribution of precipitation and reference
evapotranspiration to drought indices under different climates, J.
Hydrol., 526, 42–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.025, 2015. a
Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: Teleconnections in the Geopotential
Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter, Mon. Weather
Rev., 109, 784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2,
1981. a, b
Wang, W., Ertsen, M. W., Svoboda, M. D., and Hafeez, M.: Propagation of
drought: from meteorological drought to agricultural and hydrological
drought, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, e6547209, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/6547209, 2016. a
Watterson, I.: The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: a link to cyclone intensity?, Tellus A, 58, 82–97, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00147.x,
2006. a, b, c
Wells, N., Goddard, S., and Hayes, M. J.: A Self-Calibrating Palmer
Drought Severity Index, J. Climate, 17, 2335–2351,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2335:ASPDSI>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a, b, c
Wilhite, D.: Understanding the Phenomenon of Drought, Drought Mitigation
Center Faculty Publications, available at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtfacpub/50 (last access: 1 April 2020), 1993. a
Willmott, C. J. and Matsuura, K.: Terrestrial air temperature and
precipitation: Monthly and annual time series (1950–1999) Version 1.02,
Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, Newark, USA, 2001 (data available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.UDel_AirT_Precip.html, last access: 20 April 2021). a, b, c
Xoplaki, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Luterbacher, J., and Wanner, H.:
Mediterranean summer air temperature variability and its connection to the
large-scale atmospheric circulation and SSTs, Clim. Dynam., 20,
723–739, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0304-x, 2003. a, b, c
Xoplaki, E., González-Rouco, J., Luterbacher, J., and Wanner, H.: Wet
season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale
dynamics and trends, Clim. Dynam., 23, 63–78, 2004. a
Xoplaki, E., Luterbacher, J., Wagner, S., Zorita, E., Fleitmann, D.,
Preiser-Kapeller, J., Sargent, A. M., White, S., Toreti, A., Haldon, J. F.,
Mordechai, L., Bozkurt, D., Akçer-Ön, S., and Izdebski, A.: Modelling
Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the
Last Millennium, Hum. Ecol., 46, 363–379,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9, 2018. a, b, c
Yin, D., Roderick, M. L., Leech, G., Sun, F., and Huang, Y.: The contribution
of reduction in evaporative cooling to higher surface air temperatures during
drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7891–7897,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062039, 2014. a
Zhu, Y., Liu, Y., Wang, W., Singh, V. P., Ma, X., and Yu, Z.: Three dimensional
characterization of meteorological and hydrological droughts and their
probabilistic links, J. Hydrol., 578, 124016,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124016, 2019. a
Zveryaev, I. I.: Seasonality in precipitation variability over Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D05103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003668, 2004. a
Short summary
The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.
The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the...