Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021

Research article 22 Apr 2021

Research article | 22 Apr 2021

Dynamics of the Mediterranean droughts from 850 to 2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model

Woon Mi Kim and Christoph C. Raible

Data sets

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/19419) E. R. Cook, R. Seager, Y. Kushnir, et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561

NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 5 B. Huang, P. W. Thorne, V. F. Banzon, T. Boyer, G. Chepurin, J. H. Lawrimore, M. J. Menne, T. M. Smith, R. S. Vose, and H.-M. Zhang https://doi.org/10.7289/V5T72FNM

The twentieth century reanalysis project (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2.html) G. P. Compo, J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776

Model code and software

scPDSI: Calculation of the Conventional and Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index R. Zhong, X. Chen, Z. Wang, and C. Lai https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=scPDSI

R package biwavelet: Conduct Univariate and Bivariate Wavelet Analyses (Version 0.20.17) T. C. Gouhier, A. Grinsted, and V. Simko https://github.com/tgouhier/biwavelet

burnr: Fire-History Analysis in R S. Malevich https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=burnr

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Short summary
The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.