Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2583-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2583-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A pseudoproxy assessment of why climate field reconstruction methods perform the way they do in time and space
Sooin Yun
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Statistics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, USA
Jason E. Smerdon
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
Bo Li
Department of Statistics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, USA
Xianyang Zhang
Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Jason E. Smerdon, and Félix García-Pereira
Clim. Past, 19, 2361–2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Analyses of reconstructed data suggest that the precipitation and availability of water have evolved in a similar way during the Last Millennium in different regions of the world, including areas of North America, Europe, the Middle East, southern Asia, northern South America, East Africa and the Indo-Pacific. To confirm this link between distant regions and to understand the reasons behind it, the information from different reconstructed and simulated products has been compiled and analyzed.
Rebecca Orrison, Mathias Vuille, Jason E. Smerdon, James Apaéstegui, Vitor Azevedo, Jose Leandro P. S. Campos, Francisco W. Cruz, Marcela Eduarda Della Libera, and Nicolás M. Stríkis
Clim. Past, 18, 2045–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2045-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the South American Summer Monsoon over the last millennium and dynamically interpreted the principal modes of variability. We find the spatial patterns of the monsoon are an intrinsic feature of the climate modulated by external forcings. Multi-centennial mean state departures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age show regionally coherent patterns of hydroclimatic change in both a multi-archive network of oxygen isotope records and isotope-enabled climate models.
Cited articles
Anchukaitis, K., Evans, M., Kaplan, A., Vaganov, E., Hughes, M.,
Grissino-Mayer, H., and Cane, M.: Forward modeling of regional scale
tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence
of summer drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04705,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl025050, 2006. a, b
Anchukaitis, K., Buckley, B., Cook, E., Cook, B., D'Arrigo, R., and Ammann, C.:
Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl044843, 2010. a
Anchukaitis, K. J., Wilson, R., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R.,
D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B. E., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Zhang, P., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., and Zorita, E.: Last
millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II,
spatially resolved reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 163, 1–22,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020, 2017. a, b
Baek, S., Smerdon., J., Coats, S., Williams, A., Cook, B., Cook, E., and
R.Seager: Precipitation, Temperature, and Teleconnection Signals across the
Combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases, J. Climate, 30, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0766.1, 2017. a, b, c
Briffa, K. and Jones, P.: Surface air temperature variations during the 20th
century: Part 2 – Implications for large-scale highfrequency paleoclimate
studies, Holocene, 3, 82–92, 1993. a
Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Schweingruber, F. H., and Osborn, T. J.: Influence
of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past
600 years, Nature, 393, 450–455, https://doi.org/10.1038/30943, 1998. a
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F., and Jones, P. D.:
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A
new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D12106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006548, 2006. a
Christiansen, B. and Ljungqvist, F. C.: Challenges and perspectives for
large‐scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia, Rev.
Geophys., 55, 40–96, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016rg000521, 2017. a
Christiansen, B., Schmith, T., and Thejll, P.: Reply-Comments on “A Surrogate
Ensemble Study of Climate Reconstruction Methods: Stochasticity and
Robustness”, J. Climate, 23, 2839–2844, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3146.1,
2010. a
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Stationarity of the
tropical pacific teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 model
simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4927–4932,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50938, 2013. a, b, c
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B., Seager, R., Cook, E. R., and Anchukaitis,
K. J.: Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western
North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9886–9894,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070105, 2016. a
Coats, S., Smerdon, J., Stevenson, S., Fasullo, J., Otto-Bliesner, B., and
Ault, T.: Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past
and future droughts, J. Climate, 33, 9883–9903,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0004.1, 2020. a
Consortium, P.: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of
the Common Era, S Sci. Data, 4, 170088, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88, 2017. a
Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., Williams, A. P., Coats,
S., Stahle, D. W., and Díaz, J. V.: North American megadroughts in the
Common Era: Reconstructions and simulations, WIRES
Clim. Change, 7, 411–432, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.394, 2016. a, b
Cook, E. R., Woodhouse, C. A., Eakin, C. M., Meko, D. M., and Stahle, D. W.:
Long-term aridity changes in the western United States, Science, 306,
1015–1018, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1102586, 2004. a, b
Cook, E. R., Anchukaitis, K. J., Buckley, B. M., D’Arrigo, R. D., Jacoby,
G. C., and Wright, W. E.: Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the
last millennium, Science, 328, 486–489, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185188, 2010. a
Dannenberg, M. P. and Wise, E. K.: Performance of climate field reconstruction
methods over multiple seasons and climate variables, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 118, 9595–9610, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50765, 2013. a
Erb, M., Emile-Geay, J., Hakim, G., Steiger, N., and Steig, E.: Atmospheric
dynamics drive most interannual US droughts over the last millennium, Science Advances, 6, eaay7268, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay7268, 2020. a
Esper, J., Frank, D. C., Wilson, R. J., and Briffa, K. R.: Effect of scaling
and regression on reconstructed temperature amplitude for the past
millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L07711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl021236,
2005. a
Evans, M. N., Kaplan, A., and Cane, M. A.: Pacific sea surface temperature
field reconstruction from coral δ18O data using reduced space
objective analysis, Paleoceanography, 17, 7–1, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000pa000590,
2002. a
Evans, M. N., Tolwinski-Ward, S., Thompson, D., and Anchukaitis, K. J.:
Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology,
Quaternary Sci. Rev., 76, 16–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.08.069,
2013. a
Evans, M. N., Smerdon, J. E., Kaplan, A., Tolwinski-Ward, S., and
González-Rouco, J. F.: Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising
from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 41, 9127–9134, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062063, 2014. a, b, c, d
Franke, J., Frank, D., Raible, C. C., Esper, J., and Brönnimann, S.:
Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, Nat. Clim. Change, 3,
360–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1816, 2013. a
Golub, G. H., Heath, M., and Wahba, G.: Generalized cross-validation as a
method for choosing a good ridge parameter, Technometrics, 21, 215–223,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1979.10489751, 1979. a
Hansen, J. and Lebedeff, S.: Global trends of measured surface air temperature,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 92, 13345–13372, 1987. a
Harris, R. E., Stinchfield, M. J., Nystrom, S. L., McKay, D. J., and Hariharan,
I. K.: Damage-responsive, maturity-silenced enhancers regulate multiple genes
that direct regeneration in Drosophila, Elife, 9, e58305,
https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.58305, 2020. a
Hoerl, A. E. and Kennard, R. W.: Ridge regression : Biased estimation for
nonorthogonal problems, Technometrics, 12, 55–67,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1970.10488634, 1970. a, b, c
Jacoby, G. C. and D'Arrigo, R. D.: Tree ring width and density evidence of
climatic and potential forest change in Alaska, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
9, 227–234, https://doi.org/10.1029/95gb00321, 1995. a
Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., Osborn, T., Lough, J. M., van Ommen, T. D.,
Vinther, B. M., Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E., Zwiers, F., Mann, M. E., Schmidt, G. A., Ammann, C. M., Buckley, B. M., Cobb, K. M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Kuttel, M., Mosley-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J. T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A. W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, E., and Xoplak, E.:
High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current
status and future prospects, Holocene, 19, 3–49,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683608098952, 2009. a, b
Klein, F., Abram, N. J., Curran, M. A. J., Goosse, H., Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Moy, A., Neukom, R., Orsi, A., Sjolte, J., Steiger, N., Stenni, B., and Werner, M.: Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments, Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019. a
Lee, T. C., Zwiers, F. W., and Tsao, M.: Evaluation of proxy-based millennial
reconstruction methods, Clim. Dynam., 31, 263–281,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0351-9, 2008. a
Li, B. and Smerdon, J. E.: Defining spatial comparison metrics for evaluation
of paleoclimatic field reconstructions of the common era, Environmetrics,
23, 394–406, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2142, 2012. a, b, c, d
Mann, M. E. and Park, J.: Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability
on interannual to century timescales, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 99, 25819–25833, 1994. a
Mann, M. E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., and Ammann, C.: Testing the fidelity of
methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate, J.
Climate, 18, 4097–4107, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3564.1, 2005. a, b, c
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K.,
Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., and Ni, F.: Global signatures and
dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly,
Science, 326, 1256–1260, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1177303,
2009a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K.,
Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., and Ni, F.: Global signatures and
dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly,
Science, 326, 1256–1260, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1177303, 2009b. a, b, c
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium: Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017. a
Palmer, J. G., Cook, E. R., Turney, C. S., Allen, K., Fenwick, P., Cook, B. I.,
O’Donnell, A., Lough, J., Grierson, P., and Baker, P.: Drought variability
in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE
1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Environ.
Res. Lett., 10, 124002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002, 2015. a
Pauling, A., Luterbacher, J., and Wanner, H.: Evaluation of proxies for
European and North Atlantic temperature field reconstructions, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 30, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl017589, 2003. a
Pollack, H. N. and Smerdon, J. E.: Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial
structure and hemispheric averages, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D11106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004163, 2004. a
Rutherford, S., Mann, M., Delworth, T., and Stouffer, R.: Climate field
reconstruction under stationary and nonstationary forcing, J.
Climate, 16, 462–479, 2003. a
Rutherford, S., Mann, M., Osborn, T., Briffa, K., Jones, P. D., Bradley, R.,
and Hughes, M.: Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature
reconstructions: Sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and
target domain, J. Climate, 18, 2308–2329, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3351.1,
2005. a, b
Rutherford, S. D., Mann, M. E., Ammann, C. M., and Wahl, E. R.: Comments on
“A surrogate ensemble study of climate reconstruction methods:
Stochasticity and robustness”, J. Climate, 23, 2832–2838,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3146.1, 2010. a, b
Smerdon, J. E.: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments, WIRES Clim. Change,
3, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.149, 2012. a, b, c
Smerdon, J. E.: What was Earth's climate like before we were measuring it?,
Significance, 14, 24–29, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.00999.x, 2017. a
Smerdon, J. E. and Kaplan, A.: Comments on “Testing the fidelity of methods
used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate”: The role of the
standardization interval, J. Climate, 20, 5666–5670,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1794.1, 2007. a
Smerdon, J. E. and Pollack, H. N.: Reconstructing Earth's surface temperature
over the past 2000 years: the science behind the headlines, WIRES Clim. Change, 7, 746–771, 2016. a
Smerdon, J. E., González-Rouco, J. F., and Zorita, E.: Comments on “Robustness
of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods” by Michael E. Mann et
al., J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, 1984–2012,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jd009542, 2008a. a, b
Smerdon, J. E., Kaplan, A., and Chang, D.: On the origin of the standardization
sensitivity in regem climate field reconstructions, J. Climate,
21, 6710–6723, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2182.1, 2008b. a
Smerdon, J. E., Kaplan, A., and Amrhein, D. E.: Erroneous model field
representation in multiple pseudoproxy studies: Corrections and
implications, J. Climate, 23, 5548–5554,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3742.1, 2010a. a, b
Smerdon, J. E., Kaplan, A., Zorita, E., González-Rouco, J. F., and Evans, M.:
Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting
the common era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11705,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047372, 2011. a, b, c, d
Smerdon, J. E., Coats, S., and Ault, T. R.: Model-dependent spatial skill in
pseudoproxy experiments testing climate field reconstruction methods for the
Common Era, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1921–1942,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2684-0, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u
St. George, S., Meko, D. M., and Cook, E. R.: The seasonality of precipitation
signals embedded within the North American Drought Atlas, Holocene, 20,
983–988, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610365937, 2010. a
Stahle, D. W., Cook, E., Burnette, D., Villanueva, J., Cerano, J., Burns, J., Griffin, D., Cook, B., Acuna, R., Torbenson, M., Szejner, P., and Howard, I.: The
Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-ring reconstructions of the soil moisture balance
during the late pre-Hispanic, colonial, and modern eras, Quaternary Sci.
Rev., 149, 34–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.06.018, 2016. a
Stahle, D. W., Cook, E. R., Burnette, D. J., Torbenson, M. C., Howard, I. M., Griffin, D., Diaz, J. V., Cook, B. I., Williams, P. A., Watson, E., Sauchyn, D. J., Pederson, N., Woodhouse, C. A., Pederson, G. T., Meko, D., Coulthard, B., and Crawford, C. J.:
Dynamics, variability, and change in seasonal precipitation reconstructions
for North America, J. Climate, 33, 3173–3195,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0270.1, 2020. a
Steiger, N. J., Hakim, G. J., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., and Roe, G. H.:
Assimilation of time-averaged pseudoproxies for climate reconstruction,
J. Climate, 27, 426–441, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00693.1,
2014a. a
Steiger, N. J., Hakim, G. J., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., and Roe, G. H.:
Assimilation of time-averaged pseudoproxies for climate reconstruction,
J. Climate, 27, 426–441, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00693.1,
2014b. a
Steiger, N. J., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., Seager, R., Williams, A. P., and
Cook, E. R.: Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the
American Southwest, Science Advances, 5, eaax0087,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax0087, 2019. a
Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J.,
Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P.: IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013. a
Tejedor, E., Steiger, N., Smerdon, J., Serrano-Notivoli, R., and Vuille, M.:
Global temperature responses to large tropical volcanic eruptions in paleo
data assimilation products and climate model simulations over the Last
Millennium, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36, e2020PA004128, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004128,
2021a. a
Tejedor, E., Steiger, N. J., Smerdon, J. E., Serrano-Notivoli, R., and Vuille,
M.: Global hydroclimatic response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the
last millennium, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2019145118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2019145118,
2021b. a
Tingley, M. W., Koo, M. S., Moritz, C., Rush, A. C., and Beissinger, S. R.: The
push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian
elevational ranges, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 3279–3290,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02784.x, 2012. a, b
Von Storch, H. and Stehr, N.: Anthropogenic climate change: a reason for
concern since the 18th century and earlier, Geogr. Ann. A, 88, 107–113, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0435-3676.2006.00288.x,
2006. a
Von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Jones, J. M., Dimitriev, Y., González-Rouco,
F., and Tett, S. F.: Reconstructing past climate from noisy data, Science,
306, 679–682, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1096109, 2004. a
Wahl, E. R., Diaz, H. F., Smerdon, J. E., and Ammann, C. M.: Late winter
temperature response to large tropical volcanic eruptions in temperate
western North America: Relationship to ENSO phases, Global Planet.
Change, 122, 238–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.005, 2014. a
Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E., D’Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., Zhang, P., and Zorita, E.: Last
millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I:
The long term context, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 134, 1–18,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005, 2016. a
Yun, S.: syun0925/CFR: Data_Code_CFRs (CFR_data), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5781013, 2021. a
Yun, S., Zhang, X., and Li, B.: Detection of local differences in spatial
characteristics between two spatiotemporal random fields, J.
Am. Stat. Assoc., 1–39,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2020.1775613, accepted, 2020. a
Zhu, F., Emile-Geay, J., Hakim, G. J., King, J., and Anchukaitis, K. J.:
Resolving the differences in the simulated and reconstructed temperature
response to volcanism, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086908,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086908, 2020. a
Short summary
Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) estimate spatiotemporal climate conditions hundreds to thousands of years into the past. Assessing CFR skills is critical for improving their interpretation and ultimately for deriving better CFR estimates. We apply new methods for assessing spatiotemporal skill using formalized null hypotheses to derive a detailed assessment of why CFR skill varies across multiple methods, with implications for improving future CFR estimates.
Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) estimate spatiotemporal climate conditions hundreds to...