Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Statistical characteristics of extreme daily precipitation during 1501 BCE–1849 CE in the Community Earth System Model
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Richard Blender
Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Michael Sigl
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Martina Messmer
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Christoph C. Raible
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
Woon Mi Kim and Santos Jose González-Rojí
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how and when droughts begin and end is crucial for improving predictions and developing effective mitigation strategies. This study investigates the onset and termination of soil moisture droughts in Europe, exploring their duration, seasons of occurrence, and related atmospheric circulation factors. The findings reveal noticeable differences between drought onset and termination, as well as variations in the temporal characteristics across datasets.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, Isla R. Simpson, and Daniel Kennedy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates temporal characteristics and typical circulation conditions associated with onsets and terminations of soil moisture droughts in Europe. More understanding of drought onsets and terminations can aid in improving early predictions for devastating intense droughts.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Woon Mi Kim and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.
Onno Doensen, Martina Messmer, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 21, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are crucial systems in the Mediterranean. While extensively studied, their late Holocene variability is poorly understood. Using a climate model spanning 3350-years, we find Mediterranean cyclones show significant multi-decadal variability. Extreme cyclones tend to be more extreme in the central Mediterranean in terms of wind speed. Our work creates a reference baseline to better understand the impact of climate change on Mediterranean cyclones.
Woon Mi Kim and Santos Jose González-Rojí
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how and when droughts begin and end is crucial for improving predictions and developing effective mitigation strategies. This study investigates the onset and termination of soil moisture droughts in Europe, exploring their duration, seasons of occurrence, and related atmospheric circulation factors. The findings reveal noticeable differences between drought onset and termination, as well as variations in the temporal characteristics across datasets.
Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Christoph C. Raible, Michael Sigl, Johann Jungclaus, and Heinz Wanner
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The temperature in the past 4000 years consisted of warm and cold periods, initiated by external forcing. But, these periods are not consistent through time and space. We use climate models and reconstructions to study to which extent the periods are reflected in the European climate. We find that on local scales, the chaotic nature of the climate system is larger than the external forcing. This study shows that these periods have to be used very carefully when studying a local site.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, Isla R. Simpson, and Daniel Kennedy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates temporal characteristics and typical circulation conditions associated with onsets and terminations of soil moisture droughts in Europe. More understanding of drought onsets and terminations can aid in improving early predictions for devastating intense droughts.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Yuan-Bing Zhao, Nedjeljka Žagar, Frank Lunkeit, and Richard Blender
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 833–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled climate models have significant biases in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST). Our study shows that the TIO SST biases can affect the simulated global atmospheric circulation and its spatio-temporal variability on large scales. The response of the spatial variability is related to the amplitude or phase of the circulation bias, depending on the flow regime and spatial scale, while the response of the interannual variability depends on the sign of the SST bias.
Eric Samakinwa, Christoph C. Raible, Ralf Hand, Andrew R. Friedman, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, 2023
Publication in CP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we nudged a stand-alone ocean model MPI-OM to proxy-reconstructed SST. Based on these model simulations, we introduce new estimates of the AMOC variations during the period 1450–1780 through a 10-member ensemble simulation with a novel nudging technique. Our approach reaffirms the known mechanisms of AMOC variability and also improves existing knowledge of the interplay between the AMOC and the NAO during the AMOC's weak and strong phases.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, Joseph R. McConnell, Jihong Cole-Dai, and Mirko Severi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3167–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanism is a key driver of climate. Based on ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, we reconstruct its climate impact potential over the Holocene. By aligning records on a well-dated chronology from Antarctica, we resolve long-standing inconsistencies in the dating of past volcanic eruptions. We reconstruct 850 eruptions (which, in total, injected 7410 Tg of sulfur in the stratosphere) and estimate how they changed the opacity of the atmosphere, a prerequisite for climate model simulations.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Markus Stoffel, Christophe Corona, Francis Ludlow, Michael Sigl, Heli Huhtamaa, Emmanuel Garnier, Samuli Helama, Sébastien Guillet, Arlene Crampsie, Katrin Kleemann, Chantal Camenisch, Joseph McConnell, and Chaochao Gao
Clim. Past, 18, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-17th century saw several volcanic eruptions, deteriorating climate, political instability, and famine in Europe, China, and Japan. We analyze impacts of the eruptions on climate but also study their socio-political context. We show that an unambiguous distinction of volcanic cooling or wetting from natural climate variability is not straightforward. It also shows that political instability, poor harvest, and famine cannot only be attributed to volcanic climatic impacts.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Jiamei Lin, Anders Svensson, Christine S. Hvidberg, Johannes Lohmann, Steffen Kristiansen, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Bo M. Vinther, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas Stocker, Michael Sigl, Matthias Bigler, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, and Robert Mulvaney
Clim. Past, 18, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We employ acidity records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, frequency and climatic forcing for large volcanic eruptions from the last half of the last glacial period. A total of 25 volcanic eruptions are found to be larger than any eruption in the last 2500 years, and we identify more eruptions than obtained from geological evidence. Towards the end of the glacial period, there is a notable increase in volcanic activity observed for Greenland.
Gill Plunkett, Michael Sigl, Hans F. Schwaiger, Emma L. Tomlinson, Matthew Toohey, Joseph R. McConnell, Jonathan R. Pilcher, Takeshi Hasegawa, and Claus Siebe
Clim. Past, 18, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We report the identification of volcanic ash associated with a sulfate layer in Greenland ice cores previously thought to have been from the Vesuvius 79 CE eruption and which had been used to confirm the precise dating of the Greenland ice-core chronology. We find that the tephra was probably produced by an eruption in Alaska. We show the importance of verifying sources of volcanic signals in ice cores through ash analysis to avoid errors in dating ice cores and interpreting volcanic impacts.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the comprehensive Earth system model, MPI-ESM1.2, we explore the global Holocene vegetation changes and interpret them in terms of the Holocene climate change. The model results reveal that most of the Holocene vegetation transitions seen outside the high northern latitudes can be attributed to modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoons.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Woon Mi Kim and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.
Peter M. Abbott, Gill Plunkett, Christophe Corona, Nathan J. Chellman, Joseph R. McConnell, John R. Pilcher, Markus Stoffel, and Michael Sigl
Clim. Past, 17, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-565-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions are a key source of climatic variability, and greater understanding of their past influence will increase the accuracy of future projections. We use volcanic ash from a 1477 CE Icelandic eruption in a Greenlandic ice core as a temporal fix point to constrain the timing of two eruptions in the 1450s CE and their climatic impact. Despite being the most explosive Icelandic eruption in the last 1200 years, the 1477 CE event had a limited impact on Northern Hemisphere climate.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Dimitri Osmont, Sandra Brugger, Anina Gilgen, Helga Weber, Michael Sigl, Robin L. Modini, Christoph Schwörer, Willy Tinner, Stefan Wunderle, and Margit Schwikowski
The Cryosphere, 14, 3731–3745, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this interdisciplinary case study, we were able to link biomass burning emissions from the June 2017 wildfires in Portugal to their deposition in the snowpack at Jungfraujoch, Swiss Alps. We analysed black carbon and charcoal in the snowpack, calculated backward trajectories, and monitored the fire evolution by remote sensing. Such case studies help to understand the representativity of biomass burning records in ice cores and how biomass burning tracers are archived in the snowpack.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Cited articles
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.:
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle,
Nature, 419, 228–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002. a, b, c, d
Asadieh, B. and Krakauer, N. Y.: Global trends in extreme precipitation: climate models versus observations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 877–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-877-2015, 2015. a, b
Berger, A.:
Long-term variations of daily insolation and Quaternary climatic changes,
J. Atmos. Sci.,
35, 2362–2367, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:LTVODI>2.0.CO;2, 1978. a
Boer, G.:
Climate change and the regulation of the surface moisture and energy budgets,
Clim. Dynam.,
8, 225–239, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00198617, 1993. a
Brázdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Benito, G., Demarée, G., Macdonald, N., and Roland, L. A.: Historical floods in Europe in the past millennium,
in: Changes in Flood Risk in Europe,
edited by: Kundzewicz, Z. W.,
IAHS Press, Wallingford, pp. 121–166, 2012. a
Büntgen, U., Tegel, W., Nicolussi, K., McCormick, M., Frank, D., Trouet, V., Kaplan, J. O., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., and Esper, J.:
2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility,
Science,
331, 578–582, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1197175, 2011. a
Byrne, M. P. and O'Gorman, P. A.:
The response of precipitation minus evapotranspiration to climate warming: Why the “wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier” scaling does not hold over land,
J. Climate,
28, 8078–8092, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0369.1, 2015. a
Carn, S., Clarisse, L., and Prata, A. J.:
Multi-decadal satellite measurements of global volcanic degassing,
J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res.,
311, 99–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.01.002, 2016. a, b
Chadwick, R., Boutle, I., and Martin, G.:
Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics,
J. Climate,
26, 3803–3822, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1, 2013. a
Champion, A. J., Hodges, K. I., Bengtsson, L. O., Keenlyside, N. S., and Esch, M.:
Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones,
Tellus A,
63, 893–906, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00538.x, 2011. a, b
Chen, H., Sun, J., and Li, H.:
Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
15, 034 048, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab751f, publisher: IOP Publishing, 2020. a
Chou, C. and Neelin, J. D.:
Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation,
J. Climate,
17, 2688–2701, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2688:MOGWIO>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Chou, C., Neelin, J. D., Chen, C.-A., and Tu, J.-Y.:
Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming,
J. Climate,
22, 1982–2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2471.1, 2009. a
Contractor, S., Donat, M. G., and Alexander, L. V.:
Changes in Observed Daily Precipitation over Global Land Areas since 1950,
J. Climate,
34, 3–19, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0965.1, 2021. a
Dai, A. and Wigley, T.:
Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
27, 1283–1286, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL011140, 2000. a
Dallmeyer, A., Claussen, M., Lorenz, S. J., Sigl, M., Toohey, M., and Herzschuh, U.: Holocene vegetation transitions and their climatic drivers in MPI-ESM1.2, Clim. Past Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-51, in review, 2021. a
Dee, S. G., Cobb, K. M., Emile-Geay, J., Ault, T. R., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., and Charles, C. D.:
No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium,
Science,
367, 1477–1481, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax2000, 2020. a
Della-Marta, P. M., Mathis, H., Frei, C., Liniger, M. A., Kleinn, J., and Appenzeller, C.:
The return period of wind storms over Europe,
Int. J. Climatol.,
29, 437–459, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1794, 2009. a
DeMenocal, P. B.:
Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene,
Science,
292, 667–673, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1059287, 2001. a
El Adlouni, S., Ouarda, T. B., Zhang, X., Roy, R., and Bobée, B.:
Generalized maximum likelihood estimators for the nonstationary generalized extreme value model, Water Resour. Res.,
43, W03410, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004545, 2007. a
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: ERA5 Reanalysis, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, updated monthly,
https://doi.org/10.5065/D6X34W69, 2017. a
Fasullo, J. T., Phillips, A., and Deser, C.:
Evaluation of leading modes of climate variability in the CMIP archives,
J. Climate,
33, 5527–5545, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1024.1, 2020. a
Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.:
Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models,
Nat. Clim. Change,
6, 986–991, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3110, 2016. a, b
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.:
Evaluation of climate models,
in: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 741–866, 2014. a, b
Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.:
Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
113, D23111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008. a, b, c
Giles, D. E., Feng, H., and Godwin, R. T.:
Bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution,
Commun. Stat. Theory,
45, 2465–2483, https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2014.887104, 2016. a
Gilleland, E. and Katz, R. W.:
extRemes 2.0: An extreme value analysis package in R,
J. Stat. Softw.,
72, 1–39, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v072.i08, 2016. a
Gilleland, E. R.: Extreme Value Analysis, available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=extRemes, last access: 1 May 2021. a
Glaser, R., Riemann, D., Schönbein, J., Barriendos, M., Brázdil, R., Bertolin, C., Camuffo, D., Deutsch, M., Dobrovolný, P., van Engelen, A., Enzi, S., Halíčková, M., Koenig, S. J., Kotyza, O., Limanówka, D., Macková, J., Sghedoni, M., Martin, B., and Himmelsbach, I.:
The variability of European floods since AD 1500,
Climatic Change,
101, 235–256, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9816-7, 2010. a
Heffernan, J. E. and Stephenson, A. G.: ismev: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values [code], available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ismev (last access: 1 May 2021), 2018. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz–Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G. D., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P. d., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.:
The ERA5 global reanalysis,
Q. J.Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,
146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., and Brenner, M.:
Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization,
Nature,
375, 391–394, https://doi.org/10.1038/375391a0, 1995. a
Hofmann, D. J.:
Perturbations to the global atmosphere associated with the El Chichon volcanic eruption of 1982,
Rev. Geophys.,
25, 743–759, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG025i004p00743, 1987. a
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.-M.:
NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 5, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [dataset],
https://doi.org/10.7289/V5T72FNM, 2017. a
Hunke, E. C., Lipscomb, W. H., Turner, A. K., Jeffery, N., and Elliott, S.:
Cice: the los alamos sea ice model documentation and software user's manual version 4.1 la-cc-06-012, T-3
Fluid Dynamics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 675, 500, 2010. a
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P., Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J., and Marshall, S.:
The community earth system model: a framework for collaborative research,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
94, 1339–1360, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1, 2013. a
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Kees Klein Goldewijk, Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., and Wang, Y. P.:
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands,
Climatic Change,
109, 117–161, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2, 2011. a
Iles, C. E. and Hegerl, G. C.:
The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
9, 104012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012, 2014. a, b
Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., Schurer, A. P., and Zhang, X.:
The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
118, 8770–8786, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50678, 2013. a, b
Jacobeit, J., Glaser, R., Luterbacher, J., and Wanner, H.:
Links between flood events in central Europe since AD 1500 and large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1172, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016433, 2003. a
Joos, F. and Spahni, R.:
Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
105, 1425–1430, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0707386105, 2008. a, b, c, d
Jungclaus, J. H., Bard, E., Baroni, M., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Chini, L. P., Egorova, T., Evans, M., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Hurtt, G. C., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Khodri, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Krivova, N., LeGrande, A. N., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Man, W., Maycock, A. C., Meinshausen, M., Moberg, A., Muscheler, R., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. I., Phipps, S. J., Pongratz, J., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, G. A., Schmidt, H., Schmutz, W., Schurer, A., Shapiro, A. I., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solanki, S. K., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Usoskin, I. G., Wagner, S., Wu, C.-J., Yeo, K. L., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, Q., and Zorita, E.:
The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Kawai, H., Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Oshima, N., Tanaka, T., Yoshimura, H., and Nagasawa, R.: Significant improvement of cloud representation in the global climate model MRI-ESM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2875–2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2875-2019, 2019. a
Kenyon, J. and Hegerl, G. C.:
Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Precipitation Extremes,
J. Climate,
23, 6248–6262, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3617.1, 2010. a, b
Khaliq, M. N., Ouarda, T. B., Ondo, J.-C., Gachon, P., and Bobée, B.:
Frequency analysis of a sequence of dependent and/or non-stationary hydro-meteorological observations: A review,
J. Hydrol.,
329, 534–552, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.004, 2006. a
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., and Wehner, M.:
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble,
Climatic Change,
119, 345–357, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8, 2013. a, b
Kim, W. M.: wmk21/EVT-D-statistics-comparison: EVT-D-statistics-comparison (EVT-D-statistics), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5553094, 2021. a
Kim, W. M. and Raible, C. C.: Dynamics of the Mediterranean droughts from 850 to 2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model, Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, 2021. a
Kim, W. M., Blender, R., Sigl, M., Messmer, M., and Raible, C. C.: Data for publication “Statistical characteristics of extreme daily precipitation during 1501 BCE–1849 CE in the Community Earth System Model”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5513689, 2021. a
Kjeldsen, T. R., Macdonald, N., Lang, M., Mediero, L., Albuquerque, T., Bogdanowicz, E., Brázdil, R., Castellarin, A., David, V., Fleig, A., Gül, G. O., Kriauciuniene, J., Kohnová, S., Merz, B., Nicholson, O., Roald, L. A., Salinas, J. L., Sarauskiene, D., Šraj, M., Strupczewski, W., Szolgay, J., Toumazis, A., Vanneuville, W., Veijalainen, N., and Wilson, D.:
Documentary evidence of past floods in Europe and their utility in flood frequency estimation,
J. Hydrol.,
517, 963–973, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.038, 2014. a
Kopparla, P., Fischer, E. M., Hannay, C., and Knutti, R.:
Improved simulation of extreme precipitation in a high-resolution atmosphere model,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
40, 5803–5808, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057866, 2013. a, b
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.:
Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the Community Land Model,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
3, M03001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS00045, 2011. a
Lehner, F., Joos, F., Raible, C. C., Mignot, J., Born, A., Keller, K. M., and Stocker, T. F.: Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015. a
Machado, M. J., Botero, B. A., López, J., Francés, F., Díez-Herrero, A., and Benito, G.: Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2561–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, 2015. a
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica,
13, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945. a
Mann, H. B. and Whitney, D. R.:
On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other, Ann. Math. Stat.,
18, 50–60, https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177730491, 1947. a
Matthes, K., Funke, B., Andersson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau, P., Clilverd, M. A., Dudok de Wit, T., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., Jackman, C. H., Kretzschmar, M., Kruschke, T., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Marsh, D. R., Maycock, A. C., Misios, S., Rodger, C. J., Scaife, A. A., Seppälä, A., Shangguan, M., Sinnhuber, M., Tourpali, K., Usoskin, I., van de Kamp, M., Verronen, P. T., and Versick, S.: Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017. a, b
McConnell, J. R., Sigl, M., Plunkett, G., Burke, A., Kim, W. M., Raible, C. C., Wilson, A. I., Manning J. G., Ludlow F., Chellman N. J., Innes H. M., Yang Z., Larsen J. F., Schaefer J. R., Kipfstuhl S., Mojtabavi S., Wilhelms F., Opel T., Meyer H., and Steffensen J. P.:
Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska's Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
117, 15443–15449, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002722117, 2020. a
McGregor, S. and Timmermann, A.:
The effect of explosive tropical volcanism on ENSO,
J. Climate,
24, 2178–2191, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3990.1, 2011. a, b
McGregor, S., Khodri, M., Maher, N., Ohba, M., Pausata, F. S., and Stevenson, S.:
The effect of strong volcanic eruptions on ENSO,
in: El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate,
edited by: McPhaden, M. J., Santoso, A., and Cai, W.,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA and the American Geophysical Union Washington, D.C., USA, 267–287, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch12, 2020. a, b
Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., Krummel, P. B., Beyerle, U., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., Enting, I. G., Law, R. M., Lunder, C. R., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Reimann, S., Rubino, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., Wang, R. H. J., and Weiss, R.: Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d
Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Stjern, C. W., Hodnebrog, Ø., Marelle, L., Samset, B. H., Sillmann, J., Schaller, N., Fischer, E., Schulz, M., and Stohl, A.:
Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming,
Sci. Rep.-UK,
9, 16063, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52277-4, 2019. a, b, c
Neale, R. B., Chen, C.-C., Gettelman, A., Lauritzen, P. H., Park, S., Williamson, D. L., Conley, A. J., Garcia, R., Kinnison, D., and Lamarque, J.-F.: Description of the NCAR community atmosphere model (CAM 5.0), NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-486+ STR, 1, Technical report, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA, 1–12, 2010. a
Ohba, M., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., and Watanabe, M.:
Impact of strong tropical volcanic eruptions on ENSO simulated in a coupled GCM,
J. Climate,
26, 5169–5182, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00471.1, 2013. a
Oman, L., Robock, A., Stenchikov, G., Schmidt, G. A., and Ruedy, R.:
Climatic response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
110, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005487, 2005. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L., Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.:
Climate variability and change since 850 CE: An ensemble approach with the Community Earth System Model,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
97, 735–754, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1, 2016. a
O'Gorman, P. A.:
Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change,
Nat. Geosci.,
5, 697–700, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1568, 2012. a
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium: Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017. a
Pall, P., Allen, M. R., and Stone, D. A.:
Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming,
Clim. Dynam.,
28, 351–363, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0180-2, 2007. a, b, c, d
Papalexiou, S. M. and Montanari, A.:
Global and regional increase of precipitation extremes under global warming,
Water Resour. Res.,
55, 4901–4914, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024067, 2019. a
Pendergrass, A. G., Lehner, F., Sanderson, B. M., and Xu, Y.:
Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
42, 8767–8774, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065854, 2015. a
Pfahl, S.: Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1461–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, 2014. a
Pfahl, S. and Wernli, H.:
Quantifying the relevance of cyclones for precipitation extremes,
J. Climate,
25, 6770–6780, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00705.1, 2012. a
Pfahl, S., O'Gorman, P. A., and Fischer, E. M.:
Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation,
Nat. Clim. Change,
7, 423–427, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287, 2017. a
Pongratz, J., Reick, C., Raddatz, T., and Claussen, M.:
A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium,
Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
22, GB3018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003153, 2008. a, b, c
Robock, A.:
Volcanic eruptions and climate,
Rev. Geophys.,
38, 191–219, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998RG000054, 2000. a
Roderick, M. L., Sun, F., Lim, W. H., and Farquhar, G. D.: A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1575–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1575-2014, 2014. a
Scher, S., Haarsma, R. J., Vries, H. d., Drijfhout, S. S., and Delden, A. J. v.:
Resolution dependence of extreme precipitation and deep convection over the Gulf Stream,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
9, 1186–1194, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000903, 2017. a, b
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011. a, b
Schneider, D. P., Ammann, C. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Kaufman, D. S.:
Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
114, D15101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011222, 2009. a
Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Mann, M. E., Tett, S. F., and Phipps, S. J.:
Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium,
J. Climate,
26, 6954–6973, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00826.1, 2013. a
Scoccimarro, E., Gualdi, S., Bellucci, A., Zampieri, M., and Navarra, A.:
Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Results from CMIP5 Models,
J. Climate,
26, 7902–7911, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00850.1, 2013. a, b
Shields, C. A., Kiehl, J. T., and Meehl, G. A.:
Future changes in regional precipitation simulated by a half-degree coupled climate model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
8, 863–884, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000584, 2016. a
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Büntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., and Fischer, H.:
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years,
Nature,
523, 543–549, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015. a, b
Sigl, M., Toohey, M., McConnell, J. R., Cole-Dai, J., and Severi, M.:
HolVol: Reconstructed volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth for the Holocene (9500 BCE to 1900 CE),
PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.928646, 2021. a, b, c, d
Sillmann, J., Stjern, C. W., Myhre, G., and Forster, P. M.:
Slow and fast responses of mean and extreme precipitation to different forcing in CMIP5 simulations,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
44, 6383–6390, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073229, 2017. a
Silva, A. T., Naghettini, M., and Portela, M. M.:
On some aspects of peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods under nonstationarity using climate covariates,
Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A.,
30, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1072-y, 2016. a
Smith, R., Jones, P., Briegleb, B., Bryan, F., Danabasoglu, G., Dennis, J., Dukowicz, J., Eden, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Gent, P., Hecht, M., Jayne, S., Jochum, M., Large, W., Lindsay, K., Maltrud, M., Norton, N., Peacock, S., Vertenstein, M., and Yeager, S.:
The parallel ocean program (POP) reference manual ocean component of the community climate system model (CCSM) and community earth system model (CESM), LAUR-01853, 141, Technical report, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), USA, 1–140, 2010. a
Steinschneider, S., Ho, M., Cook, E. R., and Lall, U.:
Can PDSI inform extreme precipitation?: An exploration with a 500 year long paleoclimate reconstruction over the U.S.,
Water Resour. Res.,
52, 3866–3880, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR018712, 2016. a, b
Stephens, G. L., L'Ecuyer, T., Forbes, R., Gettelmen, A., Golaz, J.-C., Bodas–Salcedo, A., Suzuki, K., Gabriel, P., and Haynes, J.:
Dreary state of precipitation in global models,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D24211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014532, 2010. a, b
Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Fasullo, J., and Brady, E.:
“El Niño like” hydroclimate responses to last millennium volcanic eruptions,
J. Climate,
29, 2907–2921, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0239.1, 2016. a, b, c
Stevenson, S., Fasullo, J. T., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Tomas, R. A., and Gao, C.:
Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
114, 1822–1826, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612505114, 2017. a
Stevenson, S., Overpeck, J. T., Fasullo, J., Coats, S., Parsons, L., Otto-Bliesner, B., Ault, T., Loope, G., and Cole, J.:
Climate variability, volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes,
J. Climate,
31, 4309–4327, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1, 2018. a
Sun, Q., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F., Westra, S., and Alexander, L. V.:
A global, continental, and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation,
J. Climate,
34, 243–258, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0892.1, 2021. a
Sun, X., Renard, B., Thyer, M., Westra, S., and Lang, M.:
A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation,
J. Hydrol.,
530, 51–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.016, 2015. a
Thiombiano, A. N., El Adlouni, S., St-Hilaire, A., Ouarda, T. B., and El-Jabi, N.:
Nonstationary frequency analysis of extreme daily precipitation amounts in Southeastern Canada using a peaks-over-threshold approach,
Theor. Appl. Climatol.,
129, 413–426, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1789-7, 2017. a, b
Toohey, M., Stevens, B., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4049–4070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, 2016. a
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., and Parsons, D. B.:
The Changing Character of Precipitation,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
84, 1205–1218, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205, 2003. a, b, c, d
Usoskin, I., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov, G., Thébault, E., and Khokhlov, A.:
Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity,
Astron. Astrophys.,
562, L10, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423391, 2014. a, b, c
Usoskin, I., Gallet, Y., Lopes, F., Kovaltsov, G., and Hulot, G.:
Solar activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxima,
Astron. Astrophys.,
587, A150, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201527295, 2016. a
Van Haren, R., Haarsma, R. J., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Hazeleger, W.:
Resolution dependence of European precipitation in a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model,
J. Climate,
28, 5134–5149, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00279.1, 2015. a, b
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.:
Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene,
Astron. Astrophys.,
531, A6, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011. a, b, c
Wang, T., Guo, D., Gao, Y., Wang, H., Zheng, F., Zhu, Y., Miao, J., and Hu, Y.:
Modulation of ENSO evolution by strong tropical volcanic eruptions,
Clim. Dynam.,
51, 2433–2453, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4021-2, 2018. a, b
Wang, X., Jiang, D., and Lang, X.:
Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity,
Sci. Bull.,
62, 1673–1680, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2017.11.004, 2017. a, b, c, d
Wanner, H., Beer, J., Bütikofer, J., Crowley, T. J., Cubasch, U., Flückiger, J., Goosse, H., Grosjean, M., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Küttel, M., Müller, S. A., Prentice, I. C., Solomina, O., Stocker, T. F., Tarasov, P., Wagner, M., and Widmann, M.:
Mid- to Late Holocene climate change: an overview,
Quaternary Sci. Rev.,
27, 1791–1828, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.06.013, 2008. a
Westra, S., Alexander, L. V., and Zwiers, F. W.:
Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation,
J. Climate,
26, 3904–3918, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1, 2013. a
Wilhelm, B., Arnaud, F., Sabatier, P., Crouzet, C., Brisset, E., Chaumillon, E., Disnar, J.-R., Guiter, F., Malet, E., Reyss, J.-L., Tachikawa, K., Bard, E., and Delannoy, J.-J.:
1400 years of extreme precipitation patterns over the Mediterranean French Alps and possible forcing mechanisms,
Quaternary Res.,
78, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2012.03.003, 2012. a
Yang, F., Kumar, A., Schlesinger, M. E., and Wang, W.:
Intensity of hydrological cycles in warmer climates,
J. Climate,
16, 2419–2423, https://doi.org/10.1175/2779.1, 2003. a
Yang, T., Li, H., Wang, W., Xu, C.-Y., and Yu, Z.:
Statistical downscaling of extreme daily precipitation, evaporation, and temperature and construction of future scenarios,
Hydrol. Process.,
26, 3510–3523, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8427, 2012. a
Zheng, J., Yu, Y., Zhang, X., and Hao, Z.: Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years, Clim. Past, 14, 1135–1145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018, 2018.
a
Zhong, Y., Jahn, A., Miller, G., and Geirsdottir, A.:
Asymmetric Cooling of the Atlantic and Pacific Arctic During the Past Two Millennia: A Dual Observation-Modeling Study,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
45, 12–497, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079447, 2018. a
Short summary
To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily...