Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Niklas Boers
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Related authors
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Clim. Past, 20, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Clim. Past, 20, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, and Niklas Boers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1597, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using the latest climate models, we update the understanding of how the Greenland ice sheet responds to climate changes. We found that precipitation and temperature changes in Greenland vary across different regions. Our findings suggest that using uniform estimates for temperature and precipitation for modelling the response of the ice sheet can overestimate ice loss in Greenland. Therefore, this study highlights the need for spatially resolved data in predicting the ice sheet's future.
Maya Ben-Yami, Lana Blaschke, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Recent work has used observations to find statistical signs that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be approaching a collapse. We find that in complex climate models in which the AMOC does not collapse before 2100, the statistical signs that are present in the observations are not found in the 1850–2014 equivalent model time series. This indicates that the observed statistical signs are not prone to false positives.
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3123–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Differential programming is a technique that enables the automatic computation of derivatives of the output of models with respect to model parameters. Applying these techniques to Earth system modeling leverages the increasing availability of high-quality data to improve the models themselves. This can be done by either using calibration techniques that use gradient-based optimization or incorporating machine learning methods that can learn previously unresolved influences directly from data.
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, and Neli Jordanova
Clim. Past, 16, 713–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
New investigations of European loess records from MIS 6 reveal the occurrence of paleosols and horizon showing slight pedogenesis similar to those from the last climatic cycle. These units are correlated with interstadials described in various marine, continental, and ice Northern Hemisphere records. Therefore, these MIS 6 interstadials can confidently be interpreted as DO-like events of the penultimate climate cycle.
Niklas Boers, Mickael D. Chekroun, Honghu Liu, Dmitri Kondrashov, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, and Michael Ghil
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1171–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern Greenland (NGRIP) oxygen and dust records of subdecadal resolution for the interval 59 to 22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the statistical and dynamical characteristics of the records, including the Dansgaard–Oeschger variability, with no need for external forcing. The crucial ingredients are cubic drift terms, nonlinear coupling terms between the oxygen and dust time series, and non-Markovian contributions.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, Adriana Sima, Jorgen Peder Steffensen, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 13, 1181–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the analysis of δ18O and dust in the Greenland ice cores, and a critical study of their source variations, reconciles these records with those observed on the Eurasian continent. We demonstrate the link between European and Chinese loess sequences, dust records in Greenland, and variations in the North Atlantic sea ice extent. The sources of the emitted and transported dust material are variable and relate to different environments.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
600 years of wine must quality and April to August temperatures in western Europe 1420–2019
A comparison of pre-millennium eruption (946 CE) and modern temperatures from tree rings in Changbai Mountain, Northeast Asia
Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Andres Altwegg, Rudolf Brázdil, Laurent Litzenburger, Daniele Lorusso, and Thomas Pliemon
Clim. Past, 20, 1387–1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This bottle of Riesling from the traditional Bassermann Jordan winery in Deidesheim (Germany) is a relic of the premium wine harvested in 1811. It was named “Comet Wine” after the bright comet that year. The study shows that wine quality can be used to infer summer weather conditions over the past 600 years. After rainy summers with cold winds, wines turned sour, while long periods of high pressure led to excellent qualities. Since 1990, only good wines have been produced due to rapid warming.
Haibo Du, Michael C. Stambaugh, Jesús Julio Camarero, Mai-He Li, Dapao Yu, Shengwei Zong, Hong S. He, and Zhengfang Wu
Clim. Past, 19, 1295–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct, for the first time, high-resolution temperatures prior to the Millennium Eruption (946 CE) using a unique tree-ring proxy dataset in Changbai Mountain and compare them with modern temperatures. The temperatures during the last 1.5 centuries have stronger fluctuations, more frequent abruption, and a weaker periodicity of temperature variance compared to the pre-millennium temperatures. These recent changes correspond to long-term anthropogenic influences on regional climate.
Cited articles
Andersen, K. K., Svensson, A., Johnsen, S. J., Rasmussen, S. O., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Ruth, U., Siggaard-Andersen, M. L., Peder Steffensen, J., Dahl-Jensen, D., Vinther, B. M., and Clausen, H. B.: The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005, 15–42 ka. Part 1: constructing the time scale, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 25, 3246–3257, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.08.002, 2006. a
Boers, N., Ghil, M., and Rousseau, D. D.: Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, E11005–E11014, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802573115, 2018. a, b
Bond, G., Broecker, W., Johnsen, S., McManus, J., Labeyrie, L., Jouzel, J., and Bonanl, G.: Correlations between climate records from North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice, Nature, 365, 143–147, 1993. a
Broecker, W. S., Peteet, D. M., and Rind, D.: Does the ocean-atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation?, Nature, 315, 21–26, https://doi.org/10.1038/315021a0, 1985. a
Buizert, C., Adrian, B., Ahn, J., Albert, M., Alley, R. B., Baggenstos, D., Bauska, T. K., Bay, R. C., Bencivengo, B. B., Bentley, C. R., Brook, E. J., Chellman, N. J., Clow, G. D., Cole-Dai, J., Conway, H., Cravens, E., Cuffey, K. M., Dunbar, N. W., Edwards, J. S., Fegyveresi, J. M., Ferris, D. G., Fitzpatrick, J. J., Fudge, T. J., Gibson, C. J., Gkinis, V., Goetz, J. J., Gregory, S., Hargreaves, G. M., Iverson, N., Johnson, J. A., Jones, T. R., Kalk, M. L., Kippenhan, M. J., Koffman, B. G., Kreutz, K., Kuhl, T. W., Lebar, D. A., Lee, J. E., Marcott, S. A., Markle, B. R., Maselli, O. J., McConnell, J. R., McGwire, K. C., Mitchell, L. E., Mortensen, N. B., Neff, P. D., Nishiizumi, K., Nunn, R. M., Orsi, A. J., Pasteris, D. R., Pedro, J. B., Pettit, E. C., Price, P. B., Priscu, J. C., Rhodes, R. H., Rosen, J. L., Schauer, A. J., Schoenemann, S. W., Sendelbach, P. J., Severinghaus, J. P., Shturmakov, A. J., Sigl, M., Slawny, K. R., Souney, J. M., Sowers, T. A., Spencer, M. K., Steig, E. J., Taylor, K. C., Twickler, M. S., Vaughn, B. H., Voigt, D. E., Waddington, E. D., Welten, K. C., Wendricks, A. W., White, J. W., Winstrup, M., Wong, G. J., and Woodruff, T. E.: Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age, Nature, 520, 661–665, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14401, 2015. a
Cheng, H., Sinha, A., Cruz, F. W., Wang, X., Edwards, R. L., D'Horta, F. M., Ribas, C. C., Vuille, M., Stott, L. D., and Auler, A. S.: Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity, Nat. Commun., 4, 1411, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2415, 2013. a
Clark, P. U., Pisias, N. G., Stocker, T. F., and Weaver, A. J.: The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change, Nature, 415, 863–869, https://doi.org/10.1038/415863a, 2002. a
Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N. S., Hammer, C. U., Hvidberg, C. S., Steffensen, J. P., Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. E., Jouzel, J., and Bond, G.: Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record, Nature, 364, 218–220, https://doi.org/10.1038/364218a0, 1993. a
Ditlevsen, P. D., Andersen, K. K., and Svensson, A.: The DO-climate events are probably noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle, Clim. Past, 3, 129–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-129-2007, 2007. a, b
Erhardt, T.: terhardt/DO-progression: First official release (v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2645176, 2019. a
Erhardt, T., Capron, E., Rasmussen, S. O., Schüpbach, S., Bigler, M.,
Adolphi, F., and Fischer, H.: High resolution aerosol, layer thickness and
δ18O data around Greenland warming events (10–60 ka) from
NGRIP and NEEM ice cores, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.896743,
2018. a
Erhardt, T., Capron, E., Rasmussen, S. O., Schüpbach, S., Bigler, M., Adolphi, F., and Fischer, H.: Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events, Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z, aa, ab, ac, ad, ae, af, ag, ah, ai, aj, ak, al, am, an, ao, ap, aq, ar, as, at, au, av, aw, ax
Filzmoser, P. and Viertl, R.: Testing hypotheses with fuzzy data: The fuzzy p-value, Metrika, 59, 21–29, https://doi.org/10.1007/s001840300269, 2004. a
Fleitmann, D., Cheng, H., Badertscher, S., Edwards, R. L., Mudelsee, M., Göktürk, O. M., Fankhauser, A., Pickering, R., Raible, C. C., Matter, A., Kramers, J., and Tüysüz, O.: Timing and climatic impact of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from northern Turkey, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040050, 2009. a
Fuhrer, K., Wolff, E. W., and Johnsen, S. J.: Timescales for dust variability in the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) ice core in the last 100,000 years, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 31043–31052, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900929, 1999. a
Ganopolski, A. and Rahmstorf, S.: Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model, Nature, 409, 153–158, 2001. a
Gkinis, V., Simonsen, S. B., Buchardt, S. L., White, J. W., and Vinther, B. M.: Water isotope diffusion rates from the NorthGRIP ice core for the last 16,000 years – Glaciological and paleoclimatic implications, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 405, 132–141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.08.022, 2014. a, b, c
Goodman, J. and Weare, J.: Communications in Applied Mathematics and Computational Science, Comm. App. Math. Com. Sc., 5, 1–99, 2010. a
Hall, P. and Wilson, S. R.: Two Guidelines for Bootstrap Hypothesis Testing,
Biometrics, 47, 757–762, https://doi.org/10.2307/2532163, 1991. a
Henry, L. G., McManus, J. F., Curry, W. B., Roberts, N. L., Piotrowski, A. M., and Keigwin, L. D.: North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation, Science, 353, 470–474, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf5529, 2016. a
Huber, C., Leuenberger, M., Spahni, R., Flückiger, J., Schwander, J., Stocker, T. F., Johnsen, S., Landais, A., and Jouzel, J.: Isotope calibrated Greenland temperature record over Marine Isotope Stage 3 and its relation to CH4, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 243, 504–519, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2006.01.002, 2006. a
Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dansgaard, W., Fuhrer, K., Gundestrup, N., Hammer, C. U., Iversen, P., Jouzel, J., Stauffer, B., and Steffensen, J.: Irregular glacial interstadials recorded in a new Greenland ice core, Nature, 359, 311–313, 1992. a
Johnsen, S. J., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N., Steffensen, J. P., Clausen, H. B., Miller, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. E., and White, J.: Oxygen isotope and palaeotemperature records from six Greenland ice-core stations: Camp Century, Dye-3, GRIP, GISP2, Renland and NorthGRIP, J. Quaternary Sci., 16, 299–307, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.622, 2001. a
Jouzel, J., Alley, R. B., Cuffey, K. M., Dansgaard, W., Grootes, P., Hoffmann, G., Johnsen, S. J., Koster, R. D., Peel, D., Shuman, C. A., Stievenard, M., Stuiver, M., and White, J.: Validity of the temperature reconstruction from water isotopes in ice cores, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 102, 26471–26487, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01283, 1997. a
Kim, J. H., Romero, O. E., Lohmann, G., Donner, B., Laepple, T., Haam, E., and Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.: Pronounced subsurface cooling of North Atlantic waters off Northwest Africa during Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 339–340, 95–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.05.018, 2012. a
Kindler, P., Guillevic, M., Baumgartner, M., Schwander, J., Landais, A., and Leuenberger, M.: Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core, Clim. Past, 10, 887–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014, 2014. a, b
Kleppin, H., Jochum, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shields, C. A., and Yeager, S.: Stochastic atmospheric forcing as a cause of Greenland climate transitions, J. Climate, 28, 7741–7763, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00728.1, 2015. a
Landais, A., Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Caillon, N.: Large temperature variations over rapid climatic events in Greenland: a method based on air isotopic measurements, C. R. Geosci., 337, 947–956, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2005.04.003, 2005. a
Lenton, T., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 1786–1793, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105, 2008. a, b
Lenton, T. M. and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Tipping the Scales, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 97–98, 2007. a
Lenton, T. M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rahmstorf, S., Richardson, K., Steffen, W., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against, Nature, 575, 592–595, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0, 2019. a
Li, C. and Born, A.: Coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean dynamics in Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 203, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.10.031, 2019. a
Lynch-Stieglitz, J.: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 9, 83–104, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415, 2017. a
Moseley, G. E., Spötl, C.,
Brandstätter, S., Erhardt, T., Luetscher, M., and Edwards, R. L.: NALPS19:
sub-orbital-scale climate variability recorded in northern Alpine speleothems
during the last glacial period, Clim. Past, 16, 29–50,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-29-2020, 2020. a
North Greenland Ice Core Project members: High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 431, 147–151, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02805, 2004. a, b
Rasmussen, S. O., Andersen, K. K., Svensson, A. M., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., Clausen, H. B., Siggaard-Andersen, M. L., Johnsen, S. J., Larsen, L. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M. E., and Ruth, U.: A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006079, 2006. a
Rasmussen, S. O., Abbott, P. M., Blunier, T., Bourne, A. J., Brook, E., Buchardt, S. L., Buizert, C., Chappellaz, J., Clausen, H. B., Cook, E., Dahl-Jensen, D., Davies, S. M., Guillevic, M., Kipfstuhl, S., Laepple, T., Seierstad, I. K., Severinghaus, J. P., Steffensen, J. P., Stowasser, C., Svensson, A., Vallelonga, P., Vinther, B. M., Wilhelms, F., and Winstrup, M.: A first chronology for the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core, Clim. Past, 9, 2713–2730, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2713-2013, 2013. a
Rasmussen, S. O., Bigler, M., Blockley, S. P., Blunier, T., Buchardt, S. L., Clausen, H. B., Cvijanovic, I., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S. J., Fischer, H., Gkinis, V., Guillevic, M., Hoek, W. Z., Lowe, J. J., Pedro, J. B., Popp, T., Seierstad, I. K., Steffensen, J. P., Svensson, A. M., Vallelonga, P., Vinther, B. M., Walker, M. J., Wheatley, J. J., and Winstrup, M.: A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: Refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 106, 14–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.007, 2014. a, b, c, d, e
Rice, J. A.: Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis, 3rd edit edn., Thomson Brooks/Cole, Belmont, USA, 2007. a
Riechers, K.: kriechers/testing_uncertain_DO_time_lags: testing_uncertain_DO_time_lags_publication (v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5217533, 2021. a
Ruth, U., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Siggaard-Andersen, M. L., Kipfstuhl, S., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M. E., Johnsen, S. J., Lu, H., and Steffensen, J. P.: Ice core evidence for a very tight link between North Atlantic and east Asian glacial climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027876, 2007. a, b, c, d
Schüpbach, S., Fischer, H., Bigler, M., Erhardt, T., Gfeller, G., Leuenberger, D., Mini, O., Mulvaney, R., Abram, N. J., Fleet, L., Frey, M. M., Thomas, E., Svensson, A., Dahl-Jensen, D., Kettner, E., Kjaer, H., Seierstad, I., Steffensen, J. P., Rasmussen, S. O., Vallelonga, P., Winstrup, M., Wegner, A., Twarloh, B., Wolff, K., Schmidt, K., Goto-Azuma, K., Kuramoto, T., Hirabayashi, M., Uetake, J., Zheng, J., Bourgeois, J., Fisher, D., Zhiheng, D., Xiao, C., Legrand, M., Spolaor, A., Gabrieli, J., Barbante, C., Kang, J. H., Hur, S. D., Hong, S. B., Hwang, H. J., Hong, S., Hansson, M., Iizuka, Y., Oyabu, I., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Maselli, O., McConnell, J., and Wolff, E. W.: Greenland records of aerosol source and atmospheric lifetime changes from the Eemian to the Holocene, Nat. Commun., 9, 1476, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03924-3, 2018.
a, b
Sime, L. C., Hopcroft, P. O., and Rhodes, R. H.: Impact of abrupt sea ice loss on Greenland water isotopes during the last glacial period, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 4099–4104, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807261116, 2019. a
Steffensen, J. P., Andersen, K. K., Bigler, M., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-jensen, D., Fischer, H., Goto-azuma, K., Hansson, M., Johnsen, S. J., Jouzel, J., Masson-delmotte, V., Popp, T., Rasmussen, S. O., Röthlisberger, R., Ruth, U., Stauffer, B., Sveinbjörnsdóttir, Á. E., Svensson, A., and White, J. W. C.: High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years, Science, 321, 680–684, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1157707, 2008. a, b
Student: The probable error of a mean, Biometrika, 6, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.2307/2331554, 1908. a
Svensson, A., Andersen, K. K., Bigler, M., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Davies, S. M., Johnsen, S. J., Muscheler, R., Parrenin, F., Rasmussen, S. O., Röthlisberger, R., Seierstad, I., Steffensen, J. P., and Vinther, B. M.: A 60 000 year Greenland stratigraphic ice core chronology, Clim. Past, 4, 47–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-47-2008, 2008. a
Thomas, E. R., Wolff, E. W., Mulvaney, R., Johnsen, S. J., Steffensen, J. P., and Arrowsmith, C.: Anatomy of a Dansgaard-Oeschger warming transition: High-resolution analysis of the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011215, 2009. a, b
Vettoretti, G. and Peltier, W. R.: Fast physics and slow physics in the nonlinear Dansgaard-Oeschger relaxation oscillation, J. Climate, 31, 3423–3449, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0559.1, 2018. a
Vinther, B. M., Clausen, H. B., Johnsen, S. J., Rasmussen, S. O., Andersen, K. K., Buchardt, S. L., Dahl-Jensen, D., Seierstad, I. K., Siggaard-Andersen, M. L., Steffensen, J. P., Svensson, A., Olsen, J., and Heinemeier, J.: A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores throughout the Holocene, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006921, 2006. a
Voelker, A. H.: Global distribution of centennial-scale records for Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3: A database, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 1185–1212, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00139-1, 2002. a
Wilcoxon, F.: Individual comparisons of grouped data by ranking methods, Biometrics Bull., 1, 80–83, https://doi.org/10.2307/3001968, 1945. a
Zhang, X., Lohmann, G., Knorr, G., and Purcell, C.: Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes, Nature, 512, 290–294, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13592, 2014. a
Short summary
Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts comprising significant warming over Greenland, retreat of North Atlantic sea ice, and atmospheric reorganization. Statistical analysis of multi-proxy records reveals no systematic lead or lag between the transitions of proxies that represent different climatic subsystems, and hence no evidence for a potential trigger of these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events can be found.
Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt...