Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jun 2019
Research article |
| 19 Jun 2019
| 19 Jun 2019
Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero
Environmental Sciences Program, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
Climate & Atmospheric Sciences Institute, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada
Almudena García-García
Environmental Sciences Program, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
Climate & Atmospheric Sciences Institute, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada
Climate & Atmospheric Sciences Institute, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada
Eduardo Zorita
Institute of Coastal Research, Hemlholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
Fernando Jaume-Santero
Climate & Atmospheric Sciences Institute, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada
Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid,
28040, Madrid, Spain
Related authors
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Elena García-Bustamante, Philip de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, and Hugo Beltrami
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using land components that are too shallow to constrain land heat uptake. Deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the sensitivity of a regional climate model to resolution and soil scheme changes. Our results show that the use of finer resolutions mainly affects precipitation outputs, particularly in summer due to changes in convective processes. Finer resolutions are associated with larger biases compared with observations. Changing the land surface model scheme affects the simulation of near-surface temperatures, yielding the lowest biases in mean temperature with the most complex soil scheme.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The current radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is increasing the heat stored in the oceans, atmosphere, continental subsurface and cryosphere, with consequences for societies and ecosystems (e.g. sea level rise). We performed the first assessment of the ability of global climate models to represent such heat storage in the climate subsystems. Models are able to reproduce the observed atmosphere heat content, with biases in the simulation of heat content in the rest of components.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Clim. Past, 17, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide new global estimates of changes in surface temperature, surface heat flux, and continental heat storage since preindustrial times from geothermal data. Our analysis includes new measurements and a more comprehensive description of uncertainties than previous studies. Results show higher continental heat storage than previously reported, with global land mean temperature changes of 1 K and subsurface heat gains of 12 ZJ during the last half of the 20th century.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, and Joel Finnis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5345–5366, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, 2020
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2222, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with a satisfactorily predictability (70 % correct predictions) using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 to 20 %. We could identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time the method can be used as a pre-warning system triggering the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Elena García-Bustamante, Philip de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, and Hugo Beltrami
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using land components that are too shallow to constrain land heat uptake. Deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
Nele Tim, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-147, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Our study analyses extreme precipitation over southern Africa in regional high-resolution atmospheric simulations of the past and future. We investigated heavy precipitation over Southern Africa, coastal South Africa, Cape Town, and the KwaZulu-Natal province in eastern South Africa. Coastal precipitation extremes are projected to intensify, double in intensity in KwaZulu-Natal, and weaken in Cape Town. Extremes are not projected to occur more often in the 21st century than in the last decades.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-21, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The prediction of extreme coastal sea level, e.g. caused by a storm surge, is operationally carried out with dynamical computer models. These models are expensive to run and still display some limitations in predicting the height of extremes. We present a successful purely data-driven machine learning model to predict extreme sea levels along the Baltic Sea coast a few days in advance. The method is also able to identify the critical predictors for the different Baltic Sea regions.
Zeguo Zhang, Sebastian Wagner, Marlene Klockmann, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 18, 2643–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network was employed for the first time for past temperature field reconstructions. The LSTM method tested in our experiments using a limited calibration and validation dataset shows worse reconstruction skills compared to traditional reconstruction methods. However, a certain degree of reconstruction performance achieved by the nonlinear LSTM method shows that skill can be achieved even when using small samples with limited datasets.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the sensitivity of a regional climate model to resolution and soil scheme changes. Our results show that the use of finer resolutions mainly affects precipitation outputs, particularly in summer due to changes in convective processes. Finer resolutions are associated with larger biases compared with observations. Changing the land surface model scheme affects the simulation of near-surface temperatures, yielding the lowest biases in mean temperature with the most complex soil scheme.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The current radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is increasing the heat stored in the oceans, atmosphere, continental subsurface and cryosphere, with consequences for societies and ecosystems (e.g. sea level rise). We performed the first assessment of the ability of global climate models to represent such heat storage in the climate subsystems. Models are able to reproduce the observed atmosphere heat content, with biases in the simulation of heat content in the rest of components.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 17, 721–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-721-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-721-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The similarity between indirect observations of past climates and information from climate simulations can increase our understanding of past climates. The further we look back, the more uncertain our indirect observations become. Here, we discuss the technical background for such a similarity-based approach to reconstruct past climates for up to the last 15 000 years. We highlight the potential and the problems.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Clim. Past, 17, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide new global estimates of changes in surface temperature, surface heat flux, and continental heat storage since preindustrial times from geothermal data. Our analysis includes new measurements and a more comprehensive description of uncertainties than previous studies. Results show higher continental heat storage than previously reported, with global land mean temperature changes of 1 K and subsurface heat gains of 12 ZJ during the last half of the 20th century.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, and Joel Finnis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5345–5366, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, 2020
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Stefan Brönnimann, Raphael Neukom, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 16, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the influence of the input data choice on spatial climate reconstructions. We compare three tree-ring-based data sets which range from small sample size, small spatial coverage and strict screening for temperature sensitivity to the opposite. We achieve the best spatial reconstruction quality by combining all available input data but rejecting records with little and uncertain climatic information and considering moisture availability as an additional growth limitation.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Hugo Beltrami, Andrew H. MacDougall, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact that the thickness of the subsurface and the geothermal gradient have in land models for climate simulations. To do this, we modify the Community Land Model version 4.5. In a scenario of rising atmospheric temperatures, the temperature of an insufficiently deep subsurface rises faster than it would in the real land. For the model, this produces faster permafrost thawing and increased emissions of land carbon to the atmosphere.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Maria Pyrina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1129–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions try to extract a climate signal from paleo-observations. It is essential to understand their uncertainties. Similarly, comparing climate simulations and paleo-observations requires approaches to address their uncertainties. We describe a simple but flexible noise model for climate proxies for temperature on millennial timescales, which can assist these goals.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Xing Yi, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-63, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the outputs of Earth System Models to investigate the Arabian Sea upwelling for the last 1000 years and in the 21st century. Due to the orbital forcing of the models, the upwelling in the past is found to reveal a negative long-term trend, which matches the observed sediment records. In the future under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and thus interrupts the upwelling.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 69–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the contribution of atmospheric factors to interannual off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea region. We identified a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely linked to sea-level variability than the NAO. The inverse barometer effect contributes to that link in the winter and summer seasons. Freshwater flux is connected to the link in summer and net heat flux in winter.The new atmospheric-pattern-related wind forcing plays an important role in summer.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1031–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We statistically analysed the mechanisms of the variability in decadal sea-level trends for the whole Baltic Sea basin over the last century. We used two different sea-level data sets and several climatic data sets. The results of this study showed that precipitation has a lagged effect on decadal sea-level trend variations from which the signature of atmospheric effect is removed. This detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Maria Pyrina, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 13, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017, 2017
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, and Juliane Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 639–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We statistically analyse the relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern Baltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the long-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at an interannual resolution.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2215–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ground surface temperature histories of the past 500 years were reconstructed at 10 sites in northern Ontario and Quebec. The regions experienced a warming of ~1–2 K for the past 150 years, agreeing with borehole reconstructions for southern Ontario and Quebec and proxy data. Permafrost maps locate the sites in a region of discontinuous permafrost but our reconstructions suggest that the potential for permafrost was minimal to absent over the past 500 years.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
Xing Yi and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-124, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we study the upwelling in the Arabian Sea simulated in two Earth System Models for the last millennium and for the 21st century. Revealing a negative long-term trend due to the model orbital forcing, the upwelling over the last millennium is strongly correlated with the SST, the Indian summer Monsoon and the G.bulloides abundance observed in the sediment records. In the future scenarios the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and hinder the upwelling.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Jean-Claude Mareschal, and Hugo Beltrami
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, 2016
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated ice flow and heat conduction at the Dome C site in Antarctica with a 1D numerical model, using as inputs past conditions at the site over the past 800Ky. Several model parameters (basal heat flux, flux function parameter, ice surface velocity and air-ice temperature offset) are set as free parameters whose values yield different temperature profiles that we can compare to that at Dome C. Using this criteria, we estimate these free parameters through Montecarlo methods.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, Xing Yi, and Kay-Christian Emeis
Ocean Sci., 12, 807–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-807-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of external climate forcing on the four eastern boundary upwelling systems is investigated for the recent past and future. Under increased radiative forcing, upwelling-favourable winds should strengthen due to unequal heating of land and oceans. However, coastal upwelling simulated in ensembles of climate simulations do not show any imprint of external forcing neither for the past millennium nor for the future, with the exception of the strongest future scenario.
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, Sebastian Wagner, and Juan José Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 12, 317–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016, 2016
C. Pickler, H. Beltrami, and J.-C. Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, 2016
X. Yi, B. Hünicke, N. Tim, and E. Zorita
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-12-2683-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-12-2683-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use the vertical water mass transport data provided by a high-resolution global ocean simulation to study the western Arabian Sea coastal upwelling system. Our results show that: 1). no significant long-term trend is detected in the upwelling time series. 2). the impact of Indian summer monsoon on the simulated upwelling is weak. 3). the upwelling is strongly affected by the sea level pressure gradient and the air temperature gradient.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
N. Tim, E. Zorita, and B. Hünicke
Ocean Sci., 11, 483–502, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-483-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-483-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric drivers of the Benguela upwelling systems and its variability are statistically analysed with an ocean-only simulation over the last decades. Atmospheric upwelling-favourable conditions are southerly wind/wind stress, a strong subtropical anticyclone, and an ocean-land sea level pressure gradient as well as a negative ENSO and a positive AAO phase. No long-term trends of upwelling and of ocean-minus-land air pressure gradients, as supposed by Bakun, can be seen in our analysis.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
H. Beltrami, G. S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath, and J. E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 10, 1693–1706, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, 2014
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, E. Zorita, A. Fontán, V. Valencia, and P. Lazure
Ocean Sci., 9, 655–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013
P. Ortega, M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Using a process-based dendroclimatic proxy system model in a data assimilation framework: a test case in the Southern Hemisphere over the past centuries
Investigating stable oxygen and carbon isotopic variability in speleothem records over the last millennium using multiple isotope-enabled climate models
Comparison of the oxygen isotope signatures in speleothem records and iHadCM3 model simulations for the last millennium
Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE
Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium
Temperature variability in the Iberian Range since 1602 inferred from tree-ring records
North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories
Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium
Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 3: Practical considerations, relaxed assumptions, and using tree-ring data to address the amplitude of solar forcing
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Ernesto Tejedor, Miguel Ángel Saz, José María Cuadrat, Jan Esper, and Martín de Luis
Clim. Past, 13, 93–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-93-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-93-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Through this study, and inferred from 316 series of tree-ring width, we developed a maximum temperature reconstruction that is significant for much of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). This reconstruction will not only help to understand the past climate of the IP but also serve to improve future climate change scenarios particularly affecting the Mediterranean area.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
A. Moberg, R. Sundberg, H. Grudd, and A. Hind
Clim. Past, 11, 425–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-425-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-425-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Experiments with climate models can help to understand causes of past climate changes. We develop a statistical framework for comparing data from simulation experiments with temperature reconstructions for the last millennium. A combination of several external factors is found to explain a significant part of the observed variations, but our selection of data cannot tell which of two alternative choices of past solar forcing gives the best fit between simulations and reconstructions.
Cited articles
Alexeev, V. A., Nicolsky, D. J., Romanovsky, V. E., and Lawrence, D. M.: An
evaluation of deep soil configurations in the CLM3 for improved
representation of permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, l09502,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029536, 2007. a
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks
and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, l09712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607, 2012. a
Beltrami, H.: Climate from borehole data: Energy fluxes and temperatures since
1500, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 26-1–26-4,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015702, 2002. a, b, c, d
Beltrami, H. and Bourlon, E.: Ground warming patterns in the Northern
Hemisphere during the last five centuries, Earth Planet. Sc.
Lett., 227, 169–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.09.014, 2004. a
Beltrami, H. and Kellman, L.: An examination of short- and long-term
air–ground temperature coupling, Global Planet. Change, 38, 291–303, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00112-7, 2003. a, b
Beltrami, H. and Mareschal, J.-C.: Ground temperature histories for central and
eastern Canada from geothermal measurements: Little Ice Age signature,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 689–692, https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL00671, 1992. a
Beltrami, H. and Mareschal, J.-C.: Resolution of ground temperature histories
inverted from borehole temperature data, Global Planet. Change, 11,
57–70, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00002-9, 1995. a
Beltrami, H. and Taylor, A. E.: Records of climatic change in the Canadian
Arctic: towards calibrating oxygen isotope data with geothermal data, Global
Planet. Change, 11, 127–138,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00006-2,
1995. a
Beltrami, H., Smerdon, J. E., Pollack, H. N., and Huang, S.: Continental heat
gain in the global climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29,
8-1–8-3, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014310, 2002. a
Beltrami, H., Bourlon, E., Kellman, L., and González-Rouco, J. F.: Spatial
patterns of ground heat gain in the Northern Hemisphere, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 33, l06717, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025676, 2006. a
Beltrami, H., Matharoo, G. S., and Smerdon, J. E.: Impact of borehole depths on
reconstructed estimates of ground surface temperature histories and energy
storage, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 120, 763–778,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JF003382, 2015. a
Bodri, L. and Cermak, V.: Borehole Climatology, Elsevier Science Ltd, Oxford,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-008045320-0/50001-6,
2007. a
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte,
V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate
models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417–424,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012. a
Bullard, E. C. and Schonland, B. F. J.: Heat flow in South Africa, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A Mat.,
173, 474–502, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1939.0159,
1939. a
Carslaw, H. and Jaeger, J.: Conduction of Heat in Solids, Clarendon Press,
Oxford, 1959. a
Cermak, V. and Rybach, L.: Thermal conductivity and specific heat of minerals
and rocks, in: Landolt Börnstein: Physical Properties of Rocks, Group V,
Geophysics, Volume 1a, edited by: Angenheister, G., Springer-Verlag Berlin
Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/10201894_62, 1982. a, b
Chouinard, C., Fortier, R., and Mareschal, J.-C.: Recent climate variations in
the subarctic inferred from three borehole temperature profiles in northern
Quebec, Canada, Earth Planetary Sc. Lett., 263, 355–369,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2007.09.017,
2007. a
Cook, B. I., Ault, T. R., and Smerdon, J. E.: Unprecedented 21st century
drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains, Sci. Adv.,
1, e1400082, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082, 2015. a
Cuesta-Valero, F. J., García-García, A., Beltrami, H., and Smerdon,
J. E.: First assessment of continental energy storage in CMIP5 simulations,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 5326–5335, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068496, 2016. a
Cuesta-Valero, F. J., García-García, A., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E., and Jaume-Santero, F.: Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) Database, Figshare, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8124887.v1, 2019. a
Demezhko, D. Y. and Gornostaeva, A. A.: Late Pleistocene–Holocene ground surface heat flux changes reconstructed from borehole temperature data (the Urals, Russia), Clim. Past, 11, 647–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-647-2015, 2015a. a
Demezhko, D. Y. and Gornostaeva, A. A.: Reconstructions of ground surface heat
flux variations in the urals from geothermal and meteorological data,
Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phy., 51, 723–736,
https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433815070026,
2015b. a
Dommenget, D.: A simple model perturbed physics study of the simulated climate
sensitivity uncertainty and its relation to control climate biases, Clim.
Dynam., 46, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2591-4, 2016. a, b, c
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S., Collins, W.,
Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P.,
Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.:
Evaluation of Climate Models, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D.,
Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y.,
Bex, V., and Midgley, P., Sect. 9, 741–866, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020, 2013. a, b, c
Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Jackson, L. S., and
Zelinka, M.: Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and
future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1139–1150, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50174,
2013. a
García-García, A., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Beltrami, H., and Smerdon,
J. E.: Simulation of air and ground temperatures in PMIP3/CMIP5 last
millennium simulations: implications for climate reconstructions from
borehole temperature profiles, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 044022, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044022, 2016. a, b, c
García-García, A., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Beltrami, H., and
Smerdon, J. E.: Characterization of air and ground temperature relationships within the
CMIP5 historical and future climate simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
124, 3903–3929, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030117, 2019. a
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C.,
Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., Vertenstein, M.,
Worley, P. H., Yang, Z.-L., and Zhang, M.: The Community Climate System Model
Version 4, J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1,
2011. a
González-Rouco, F., von Storch, H., and Zorita, E.: Deep soil temperature
as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the
last thousand years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2116,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018264, 2003. a
González-Rouco, J. F., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E., and von Storch, H.:
Simulation and inversion of borehole temperature profiles in surrogate
climates: Spatial distribution and surface coupling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, l01703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024693, 2006. a, b
González-Rouco, J. F., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E., and Stevens, M. B.: Borehole climatology: a discussion based on contributions from climate modeling, Clim. Past, 5, 97–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-97-2009, 2009. a
Gregory, J. M., Stouffer, R. J., Raper, S. C. B., Stott, P. A., and Rayner,
N. A.: An Observationally Based Estimate of the Climate Sensitivity, J. Climate, 15, 3117–3121,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3117:AOBEOT>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Harris, I., Jones, P., Osborn, T., and Lister, D.: Updated high-resolution
grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset,
Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623–642, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711,
2014. a
Harris, R. N. and Chapman, D. S.: Mid-latitude (30∘–60∘ N) climatic warming inferred by combining borehole temperatures with surface
air temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 747–750,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012348, 2001. a, b, c
Hartmann, D., Klein Tank, A., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L., Brönnimann,
S., Charabi, Y., Dentener, F., Dlugokencky, E., Easterling, D., Kaplan, A.,
Soden, B., Thorne, P., Wild, M., and Zhai, P.: Observations: Atmosphere and
Surface, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor,
M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P.,
Sect. 2, 159–254, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.008,
2013. a
Hawkins, E., Ortega, P., Suckling, E., Schurer, A., Hegerl, G., Jones, P.,
Joshi, M., Osborn, T. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mignot, J., Thorne, P., and
van Oldenborgh, G. J.: Estimating changes in global temperature since the
pre-industrial period, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1841–1856, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1, 2017. a
Hourdin, F., Mauritsen, T., Gettelman, A., Golaz, J.-C., Balaji, V., Duan, Q.,
Folini, D., Ji, D., Klocke, D., Qian, Y., Rauser, F., Rio, C., Tomassini, L.,
Watanabe, M., and Williamson, D.: The Art and Science of Climate Model
Tuning, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 589–602,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1, 2017. a
Hu, X., Taylor, P. C., Cai, M., Yang, S., Deng, Y., and Sejas, S.: Inter-Model
Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity,
Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 4300, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04623-7, 2017. a, b, c
Huang, S., Pollack, H. N., and Shen, P.-Y.: Temperature trends over the past
five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures, Nature, 403,
756–758, https://doi.org/10.1038/35001556, 2000. a, b, c
Jungclaus, J. H., Fischer, N., Haak, H., Lohmann, K., Marotzke, J., Matei, D.,
Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., and von Storch, J. S.: Characteristics of the
ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean
component of the MPI-Earth system model, J. Adv. Model.
Earth Sy., 5, 422–446, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20023, 2013. a
Jungclaus, J. H., Lohmann, K., and Zanchettin, D.: Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 10, 2201–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014, 2014. a
Knutti, R. and Sedláček, J.: Robustness and uncertainties in the new
CMIP5 climate model projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 369–373,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716, 2012. a
Knutti, R., Rugenstein, M. A. A., and Hegerl, G. C.: Beyond equilibrium climate
sensitivity, Nat. Geosci., 10, 727–736, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3017,
2017. a, b
Kohl, T.: Transient thermal effects below complex topographies, Tectonophysics,
306, 311–324, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1951(99)00063-3,
1999. a
Koven, C. D., Ringeval, B., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Cadule, P.,
Khvorostyanov, D., Krinner, G., and Tarnocai, C.: Permafrost carbon-climate
feedbacks accelerate global warming, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 108, 14769–14774, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103910108, 2011. a
Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., and Stern, A.: Analysis of Permafrost Thermal
Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models,
J. Climate, 26, 1877–1900, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00228.1,
2013. a, b, c
Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Conley, A., Lawrence, P. J.,
Rosenbloom, N., and Teng, H.: Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in
CCSM4, J. Climate, 26, 1085–1111, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00326.1,
2013. a
Li, J. and Heap, A. D.: A review of comparative studies of spatial
interpolation methods in environmental sciences: Performance and impact
factors, Ecol. Inform., 6, 228–241,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2010.12.003,
2011. a
MacDougall, A. H. and Beltrami, H.: Impact of deforestation on subsurface
temperature profiles: implications for the borehole paleoclimate record,
Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 074014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7394, 2017. a
MacDougall, A. H., Beltrami, H., González-Rouco, J. F., Stevens, M. B., and
Bourlon, E.: Comparison of observed and general circulation model derived
continental subsurface heat flux in the Northern Hemisphere, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D12109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013170, 2010. a
MacDougall, A. H., Avis, C. A., and Weaver, A. J.: Significant contribution to
climate warming from the permafrost carbon feedback, Nat. Geosci., 5,
719–721, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1573, 2012. a
Mardikis, M. G., Kalivas, D. P., and Kollias, V. J.: Comparison of
Interpolation Methods for the Prediction of Reference Evapotranspiration—An
Application in Greece, Water Resour. Manag., 19, 251–278,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-005-3179-2, 2005. a
Mareschal, J.-C. and Beltrami, H.: Evidence for recent warming from perturbed
geothermal gradients: examples from eastern Canada, Clim. Dynam., 6,
135–143, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00193525, 1992. a
Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A.,
González Rouco, J., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T.,
Osborn, T., Otto-Bliesner, B., Quinn, T., Ramesh, R., Rojas, M., Shao, X.,
and Timmermann, A.: Information from Paleoclimate Archives, in: Climate
Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.,
Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., Sect. 5,
383–464, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New
York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.013,
2013. a
Mauritsen, T., Stevens, B., Roeckner, E., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M.,
Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Klocke, D., Matei, D., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D.,
Pincus, R., Schmidt, H., and Tomassini, L.: Tuning the climate of a global
model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 4, m00A01,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012MS000154, 2012. a, b, c
McCullough, I. M., Davis, F. W., Dingman, J. R., Flint, L. E., Flint, A. L.,
Serra-Diaz, J. M., Syphard, A. D., Moritz, M. A., Hannah, L., and Franklin,
J.: High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional
climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes, Landscape Ecol., 31,
1063–1075, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0318-x, 2016. a
McFarlane, N.: Parameterizations: representing key processes in climate models
without resolving them, WIRES Clim. Change, 2,
482–497, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.122, 2011. a
Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Bauer, S. E.,
DelGenio, A. D., Kelley, M., Lo, K. K., Ruedy, R., Shindell, D. T., Aleinov,
I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L.,
Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis,
A. A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Menon, S., Oinas, V., Pérez
García-Pando, C., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A.,
Russell, G. L., Sato, M., Sun, S., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis,
A., Yao, M.-S., and Zhang, J.: CMIP5 historical simulations (1850–2012) with
GISS ModelE2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 6, 441–477,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000266, 2014. a
Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D. M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N. M., and Karlén,
W.: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-
and high-resolution proxy data, Nature, 433, 613–617,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03265, 2005. a
Nalder, I. A. and Wein, R. W.: Spatial interpolation of climatic Normals: test
of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest, Agr. Forest
Meteorol., 92, 211–225,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(98)00102-6,
1998. a, b
PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 11, 1673–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015, 2015. a
Pickler, C., Beltrami, H., and Mareschal, J.-C.: Laurentide Ice Sheet basal temperatures during the last glacial cycle as inferred from borehole data, Clim. Past, 12, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, 2016. a, b
Price, D. T., McKenney, D. W., Nalder, I. A., Hutchinson, M. F., and Kesteven,
J. L.: A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of
Canadian monthly mean climate data, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 101,
81–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(99)00169-0,
2000. a, b
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011. a
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov,
I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y.-H.,
Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Del Genio, A., de Fainchtein, R., Faluvegi, G.,
Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., LeGrande,
A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Matthews, E. E., Menon, S., Miller, R. L.,
Oinas, V., Oloso, A. O., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Putman, W. M., Rind,
D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Syed, R. A., Tausnev,
N., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M.-S., and Zhang, J.:
Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5
archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 6, 141–184,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014. a
Schmidt, G. A., Bader, D., Donner, L. J., Elsaesser, G. S., Golaz, J.-C., Hannay, C., Molod, A., Neale, R. B., and Saha, S.: Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3207-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Séférian, R., Gehlen, M., Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Marti, O., Dunne, J. P., Christian, J. R., Doney, S. C., Ilyina, T., Lindsay, K., Halloran, P. R., Heinze, C., Segschneider, J., Tjiputra, J., Aumont, O., and Romanou, A.: Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827-1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016. a, b
Sen Gupta, A., Muir, L. C., Brown, J. N., Phipps, S. J., Durack, P. J.,
Monselesan, D., and Wijffels, S. E.: Climate Drift in the CMIP3 Models,
J. Climate, 25, 4621–4640, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00312.1, 2012. a
Sen Gupta, A., Jourdain, N. C., Brown, J. N., and Monselesan, D.: Climate
Drift in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 8597–8615,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.1, 2013. a, b, c
Slater, A. G. and Lawrence, D. M.: Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost
from Climate Models, J. Climate, 26, 5608–5623,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00341.1, 2013. a, b, c, d
Smerdon, J. E.: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction
methods: pseudoproxy experiments, WIRES Clim.
Change, 3, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.149, 2012. a
Smerdon, J. E., Pollack, H. N., Enz, J. W., and Lewis, M. J.:
Conduction-dominated heat transport of the annual temperature signal in soil,
J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 108, 2431,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB002351, 2003. a, b
Soden, B. J., Collins, W. D., and Feldman, D. R.: Reducing uncertainties in
climate models, Science, 361, 326–327, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau1864,
2018. a
Stevens, M. B., González-Rouco, J. F., and Beltrami, H.: North American
climate of the last millennium: Underground temperatures and model
comparison, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 113, f01008,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000705, 2008. a
Stieglitz, M. and Smerdon, J. E.: Characterizing Land–Atmosphere Coupling and
the Implications for Subsurface Thermodynamics, J. Climate, 20,
21–37, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3982.1, 2007. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the
Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93,
485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2011. a
Vasseur, G., Bernard, P., de Meulebrouck, J. V., Kast, Y., and Jolivet, J.:
Holocene paleotemperatures deduced from geothermal measurements,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 43, 237–259,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-0182(83)90013-5,
1983. a
Vincenty, T.: Direct and Inverse Solutions of Geodesics on the Ellipsoid with
Application of Nested Equations, Surv. Rev., 23, 88–93,
https://doi.org/10.1179/sre.1975.23.176.88, 1975. a
Wang, J. and Bras, R.: Ground heat flux estimated from surface soil
temperature, J. Hydrol., 216, 214–226,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00008-6,
1999. a
Wu, T., Li, W., Ji, J., Xin, X., Li, L., Wang, Z., Zhang, Y., Li, J., Zhang,
F., Wei, M., Shi, X., Wu, F., Zhang, L., Chu, M., Jie, W., Liu, Y., Wang, F.,
Liu, X., Li, Q., Dong, M., Liang, X., Gao, Y., and Zhang, J.: Global carbon
budgets simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model for the
last century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4326–4347,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50320, 2013. a
Wu, T., Song, L., Li, W., Wang, Z., Zhang, H., Xin, X., Zhang, Y., Zhang, L.,
Li, J., Wu, F., Liu, Y., Zhang, F., Shi, X., Chu, M., Zhang, J., Fang, Y.,
Wang, F., Lu, Y., Liu, X., Wei, M., Liu, Q., Zhou, W., Dong, M., Zhao, Q.,
Ji, J., Li, L., and Zhou, M.: An overview of BCC climate system model
development and application for climate change studies, J.
Meteorol. Res., 28, 34–56, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-3041-7, 2014.
a
Xiao-Ge, X., Tong-Wen, W., and Jie, Z.: Introduction of {CMIP5} Experiments
Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center,
Advances in Climate Change Research, 4, 41–49,
https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.041,
2013. a
Yukimoto, S., Adachi, Y., Hosaka, M., Sakami, T., Yoshimura, H., Hirabara, M.,
Tanaka, T. Y., Shindo, E., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Mizuta, R., Yabu, S.,
Obata, A., Nakano, H., Koshiro, T., Ose, T., and Kitoh, A.: A New Global
Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM; Model
Description and Basic Performance, J. Meteorol. Soc.
Jpn. II, 90A, 23–64, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A02, 2012. a, b
Short summary
A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE...
