Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Sep 2018
Research article |
| 24 Sep 2018
| 24 Sep 2018
Towards high-resolution climate reconstruction using an off-line data assimilation and COSMO-CLM 5.00 model
Bijan Fallah
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Emmanuele Russo
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Walter Acevedo
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Achille Mauri
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D – Sustainable Resources – Bio-Economy Unit, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
Nico Becker
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Ulrich Cubasch
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Basil A. S. Davis, Marc Fasel, Jed O. Kaplan, Emmanuele Russo, and Ariane Burke
Clim. Past, 20, 1939–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the last ice age (21 000 yr BP) in Europe, the composition and extent of forest and its associated climate remain unclear, with models indicating more forest north of the Alps and a warmer and somewhat wetter climate than suggested by the data. A new compilation of pollen records with improved dating suggests greater agreement with model climates but still suggests models overestimate forest cover, especially in the west.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Schmitz Benjamin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-120, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tree fall events have an impact on forests and transport systems. Our study explored tree fall in relation to wind and weather conditions. We used tree fall data along railway lines and meteorological data from ERA5 and radar to build a logistic regression model. We found that high and prolonged wind speeds, wet conditions and high air density increase tree fall risk. These factors might change in the changing climate which in return will change risks for trees, forests and transport.
Bijan Fallah, Christoph Menz, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-227, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We tried to contribute to the local climate change impact study in Central Asia, a water-scarce and vulnerable region to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in Central Asia.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 19, 835–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation distribution is uneven in monsoon and westerlies-dominated subregions of Asia. Multi-model data from PMIP3 and CMIP5 show a distinct inverse pattern of climatological conditions after NHVAI, with an intensified aridity in the relatively wettest area but a weakened aridity in the relatively driest area of the AMR. The hydrological impacts relate to the dynamical response of the climate system to the radiative effect of volcanic aerosol and the subsequent local physical feedbacks.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Ulrich Cubasch
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 70, 225–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-70-225-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-70-225-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Flohn's publication discusses the state of knowledge of the Pleistocene climate from the perspective of atmospheric sciences, which in 1963 was mainly based on geological and geomorphological evidence. The paper discusses to what extent Flohn's conclusions are still valid and how new findings, methods, and ideas have added to our present-day picture of the Pleistocene climate.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Basit Khan, Sabine Banzhaf, Edward C. Chan, Renate Forkel, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Mona Kurppa, Björn Maronga, Matthias Mauder, Siegfried Raasch, Emmanuele Russo, Martijn Schaap, and Matthias Sühring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1171–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1171-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1171-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An atmospheric chemistry model has been implemented in the microscale PALM model system 6.0. This article provides a detailed description of the model, its structure, input requirements, various features and limitations. Several pre-compiled ready-to-use chemical mechanisms are included in the chemistry model code; however, users can also easily implement other mechanisms. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the new chemistry model in the urban environment.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Basil A. S. Davis, Manuel Chevalier, Philipp Sommer, Vachel A. Carter, Walter Finsinger, Achille Mauri, Leanne N. Phelps, Marco Zanon, Roman Abegglen, Christine M. Åkesson, Francisca Alba-Sánchez, R. Scott Anderson, Tatiana G. Antipina, Juliana R. Atanassova, Ruth Beer, Nina I. Belyanina, Tatiana A. Blyakharchuk, Olga K. Borisova, Elissaveta Bozilova, Galina Bukreeva, M. Jane Bunting, Eleonora Clò, Daniele Colombaroli, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Stéphanie Desprat, Federico Di Rita, Morteza Djamali, Kevin J. Edwards, Patricia L. Fall, Angelica Feurdean, William Fletcher, Assunta Florenzano, Giulia Furlanetto, Emna Gaceur, Arsenii T. Galimov, Mariusz Gałka, Iria García-Moreiras, Thomas Giesecke, Roxana Grindean, Maria A. Guido, Irina G. Gvozdeva, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kari L. Hjelle, Sergey Ivanov, Susanne Jahns, Vlasta Jankovska, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Ikuko Kitaba, Piotr Kołaczek, Elena G. Lapteva, Małgorzata Latałowa, Vincent Lebreton, Suzanne Leroy, Michelle Leydet, Darya A. Lopatina, José Antonio López-Sáez, André F. Lotter, Donatella Magri, Elena Marinova, Isabelle Matthias, Anastasia Mavridou, Anna Maria Mercuri, Jose Manuel Mesa-Fernández, Yuri A. Mikishin, Krystyna Milecka, Carlo Montanari, César Morales-Molino, Almut Mrotzek, Castor Muñoz Sobrino, Olga D. Naidina, Takeshi Nakagawa, Anne Birgitte Nielsen, Elena Y. Novenko, Sampson Panajiotidis, Nata K. Panova, Maria Papadopoulou, Heather S. Pardoe, Anna Pędziszewska, Tatiana I. Petrenko, María J. Ramos-Román, Cesare Ravazzi, Manfred Rösch, Natalia Ryabogina, Silvia Sabariego Ruiz, J. Sakari Salonen, Tatyana V. Sapelko, James E. Schofield, Heikki Seppä, Lyudmila Shumilovskikh, Normunds Stivrins, Philipp Stojakowits, Helena Svobodova Svitavska, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Ioan Tantau, Willy Tinner, Kazimierz Tobolski, Spassimir Tonkov, Margarita Tsakiridou, Verushka Valsecchi, Oksana G. Zanina, and Marcelina Zimny
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2423–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2423-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Eurasian Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) contains pollen counts and associated metadata for 8134 modern pollen samples from across the Eurasian region. The EMPD is part of, and complementary to, the European Pollen Database (EPD) which contains data on fossil pollen found in Late Quaternary sedimentary archives. The purpose of the EMPD is to provide calibration datasets and other data to support palaeoecological research on past climates and vegetation cover over the Quaternary period.
Björn Maronga, Sabine Banzhaf, Cornelia Burmeister, Thomas Esch, Renate Forkel, Dominik Fröhlich, Vladimir Fuka, Katrin Frieda Gehrke, Jan Geletič, Sebastian Giersch, Tobias Gronemeier, Günter Groß, Wieke Heldens, Antti Hellsten, Fabian Hoffmann, Atsushi Inagaki, Eckhard Kadasch, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Basit Ali Khan, Christoph Knigge, Helge Knoop, Pavel Krč, Mona Kurppa, Halim Maamari, Andreas Matzarakis, Matthias Mauder, Matthias Pallasch, Dirk Pavlik, Jens Pfafferott, Jaroslav Resler, Sascha Rissmann, Emmanuele Russo, Mohamed Salim, Michael Schrempf, Johannes Schwenkel, Gunther Seckmeyer, Sebastian Schubert, Matthias Sühring, Robert von Tils, Lukas Vollmer, Simon Ward, Björn Witha, Hauke Wurps, Julian Zeidler, and Siegfried Raasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1335–1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we describe the PALM model system 6.0. PALM is a Fortran-based turbulence-resolving code and has been applied for studying a variety of atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers for about 20 years. The model is optimized for use on massively parallel computer architectures. During the last years, PALM has been significantly improved and now offers a variety of new components that are especially designed to simulate the urban atmosphere at building-resolving resolution.
Giovanni Forzieri, Matteo Pecchi, Marco Girardello, Achille Mauri, Marcus Klaus, Christo Nikolov, Marius Rüetschi, Barry Gardiner, Julián Tomaštík, David Small, Constantin Nistor, Donatas Jonikavicius, Jonathan Spinoni, Luc Feyen, Francesca Giannetti, Rinaldo Comino, Alessandro Wolynski, Francesco Pirotti, Fabio Maistrelli, Ionut Savulescu, Stéphanie Wurpillot-Lucas, Stefan Karlsson, Karolina Zieba-Kulawik, Paulina Strejczek-Jazwinska, Martin Mokroš, Stefan Franz, Lukas Krejci, Ionel Haidu, Mats Nilsson, Piotr Wezyk, Filippo Catani, Yi-Ying Chen, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Gherardo Chirici, Alessandro Cescatti, and Pieter S. A. Beck
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 257–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-257-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-257-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Strong winds may uproot and break trees and represent a risk for forests. Despite the importance of this natural disturbance and possible intensification in view of climate change, spatial information about wind-related impacts is currently missing on a pan-European scale. We present a new database of wind disturbances in European forests comprised of more than 80 000 records over the period 2000–2018. Our database is a unique spatial source for the study of forest disturbances at large scales.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Robin Noyelle, Uwe Ulbrich, Nico Becker, and Edmund P. Meredith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 941–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the formation of the Mediterranean hurricane that developed between Balearic Islands and Sardinia in October 1996, with a particular focus on the influence of sea surface temperature. We show that increased sea surface temperatures lead to greater probabilities of appearance and a greater strength of the resulting hurricane, suggesting that the processes for Mediterranean hurricanes at steady state are very similar to tropical cyclones.
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
Stella Babian, Jens Grieger, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6749–6760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most prominent asymmetric features of the southern hemispheric (SH) circulation is the split jet over Australia and New Zealand in austral winter. We propose a new, hemispherical index that is based on the principal components (PCs) of the zonal wind field for the SH winter. The new PC-based index (PSI) suggests that the SH split jet is strongly associated with the AAO. Furthermore, both flavors of ENSO and the PSA-1 pattern produce favorable conditions for a SH split event.
Walter Acevedo, Bijan Fallah, Sebastian Reich, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 13, 545–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-545-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to contribute to the present knowledge of paleo data assimilation techniques by addressing the following two questions: (i) Does the off-line regime naturally appear for the assimilation of tree-ring-width records into an AGCM? (ii) Is the fuzzy logic (FL)-based extension of a forward model still useful to improve the performance of a time-averaged ensemble Kalman filter technique when a climate model is used?
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
B. Fallah and U. Cubasch
Clim. Past, 11, 253–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that state-of-the-art climate model simulations are able to capture historically recorded Asian monsoon failures during the past millennium at the right time and with a comparable spatial distribution. During the Little Ice Age, both model and proxy reconstructions point to fewer monsoon failures. The results suggest an influential impact of volcanic eruptions on the atmosphere-ocean interactions throughout the past millennium.
S. Polanski, B. Fallah, S. Prasad, and U. Cubasch
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-703-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-703-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Instrumental Period
Dynamical downscaling and data assimilation for a cold-air outbreak in the European Alps during the Year Without a Summer of 1816
Extreme springs in Switzerland since 1763 in climate and phenological indices
Building a long-time series for weather and extreme weather in the Straits Settlements: a multi-disciplinary approach to the archives of societies
Statistical reconstruction of daily precipitation and temperature fields in Switzerland back to 1864
Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Climate of migration? How climate triggered migration from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century
Jens Esmark's Christiania (Oslo) meteorological observations 1816–1838: the first long-term continuous temperature record from the Norwegian capital homogenized and analysed
Influence of proxy data uncertainty on data assimilation for the past climate
Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France
Peter Stucki, Lucas Pfister, Yuri Brugnara, Renate Varga, Chantal Hari, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 20, 2327–2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2327-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2327-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our work, we reconstruct the weather of the extremely cold and wet summer in 1816 using a weather forecasting model to obtain high-resolution, three-dimensional weather simulations. We refine our simulations with surface pressure and temperature observations, representing a novel approach for this period. Our results show that this approach yields detailed and accurate weather reconstructions, opening the door to analyzing past weather events and their impacts in detail.
Noemi Imfeld, Koen Hufkens, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 20, 659–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-659-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and weather in spring are important because they can have far-reaching impacts, e.g. on plant growth, due to cold spells. Here, we study changes in climate and phenological indices for the period from 1763 to 2020 based on newly published reconstructed fields of daily temperature and precipitation for Switzerland. We look at three cases of extreme spring conditions, namely a warm spring in 1862, two frost events in 1873 and 1957, and three cold springs in 1785, 1837, and 1852.
Fiona Williamson
Clim. Past, 17, 791–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-791-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the recovery of instrumental weather records available for Singapore and Malaysia (Straits Settlements) from the late 1780s to 1917. Taking a historical approach, the paper explores the types of records available, the circumstances of their production and their value to the scientific community.
Lucas Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Mikhaël Schwander, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Pascal Horton, and Christian Rohr
Clim. Past, 16, 663–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-663-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims to reconstruct high-resolution daily precipitation and temperature fields for Switzerland back to 1864 using a statistical approach called the analogue resampling method. Results suggest that the presented method is suitable for weather reconstruction. As illustrated with the example of the avalanche in winter 1887/88, these weather reconstructions have great potential for various analyses of past weather and climate impact modelling.
Hans Visser, Sönke Dangendorf, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Bram Bregman, and Arthur C. Petersen
Clim. Past, 14, 139–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global temperature well below 2.0 °C. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets, model choices, choices for pre-industrial and warming definitions have been varied. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in global temperature since pre-industrial time.
Rüdiger Glaser, Iso Himmelsbach, and Annette Bösmeier
Clim. Past, 13, 1573–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the extent to which climate, harvest and prices influenced the major migration waves from southwest Germany into North America during the 19th century, a century of dramatic climatic and societal changes.
Geir Hestmark and Øyvind Nordli
Clim. Past, 12, 2087–2106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2087-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2087-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The detailed and continuous meteorological observations of Jens Esmark from the capital of Norway in the period 1816 to 1838 are evaluated, homogenized and reanalysed with modern methods to characterize the weather in Oslo in this period.
Anastasios Matsikaris, Martin Widmann, and Johann Jungclaus
Clim. Past, 12, 1555–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1555-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1555-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have assimilated proxy-based (PAGES 2K) and instrumental (HadCRUT3v) observations into a General Circulation Model (MPI-ESM-CR). Assimilating instrumental data improves the performance of Data Assimilation. No skill on small spatial scales is however found for either of the two schemes. Errors in the assimilated data are therefore not the main reason for this lack of skill; continental mean temperatures cannot provide skill on small spatial scales in palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Laurie Caillouet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Eric Sauquet, and Benjamin Graff
Clim. Past, 12, 635–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-635-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-635-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a daily high-resolution reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France from 1871 onwards. A statistical method linking atmospheric circulation to local precipitation is refined for taking advantage of recently published global long-term atmospheric and oceanic reconstructions. The resulting data set allows filling in the spatial and temporal data gaps in historical surface observations, and improving our knowledge on the local-scale climate variability.
Cited articles
Acevedo, W.: Towards Paleoclimate Reanalysis via Ensemble Kalman Filtering,
Proxy Forward Modeling and Fuzzy Logic, PhD thesis, Geosim, available at:
http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/receive/FUDISS_thesis_000000099753
(last access: 20 September 2018), 2015. a
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Identification of climatic state with
limited proxy data, Clim. Past, 8, 1141–1151,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, 2012. a
Asharaf, S., Dobler, A., and Ahrens, B.: Soil Moisture-Precipitation Feedback
Processes in the Indian Summer Monsoon Season, J. Hydrometeor., 13,
1461–1474, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-06.1, 2012. a
Barth, A., Alvera-Azcárate, A., and Weisberg, R. H.: Assimilation of
high-frequency radar currents in a nested model of the West Florida Shelf, J.
Geophys. Res., 113, C08033,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004585, 2008a. a
Bhend, J., Franke, J., Folini, D., Wild, M., and Brönnimann, S.: An
ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions, Clim. Past, 8, 963–976,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-963-2012, 2012. a, b
Bonfils, C., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Guiot, J., and Bartlein, P.: Some
mechanisms of mid-Holocene climate change in Europe, inferred from comparing
PMIP models to data, Clim. Dynam., 23, 79–98,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0425-x, 2004. a, b
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt,
J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt,
C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O.,
Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.:
Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial
Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3,
261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007. a
Brönnimann, S.: Towards a paleoreanalysis?, ProClim-Flash,
1, 16, available at: http://www.wiso.unibe.ch/unibe/portal/fak_naturwis/e_geowiss/c_igeogr/content/e39603/e68757/e179306/e201975/e288406/Flash2011_ger.pdf
(last access: 20 September 2018), 2011. a
Cheddadi, R., Yu, G., Guiot, J., Harrison, S. P., and Prentice, I. C.: The
climate of Europe 6000 years ago, Clim. Dynam., 13, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050148, 1996. a
Chen, X., Xing, P., Luo, Y., Nie, S., Zhao, Z., Huang, J., Wang, S., and Tian,
Q.: Surface temperature dataset for North America obtained by application of
optimal interpolation algorithm merging tree-ring chronologies and climate
model output, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 127, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1634-4, 2015. a, b
Colin, J., Déqué, M., Radu, R., and Somot, S.: Sensitivity study of
heavy precipitation in Limited Area Model climate simulations: influence of
the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique, Tellus
A, 62, 591–604, 2010. a
Davis, B., Brewer, S., Stevenson, A., and Guiot, J.: The temperature of Europe
during the Holocene reconstructed from pollen data, Quaternary Sci.
Rev., 22, 1701–1716,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00173-2,
2003. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P.,
Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C.,
Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B.,
Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park,
B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart,
F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Dolman, A. M. and Laepple, T.: Sedproxy: a forward model for sediment
archived climate proxies, Clim. Past Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-13, in review, 2018. a
Evans, M., Tolwinski-Ward, S., Thompson, D., and Anchukaitis, K.: Applications
of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology, Quaternary
Sci. Revi., 76, 16–28,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024,
2013. a, b
Evensen, G.: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic
model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 99, 10143–10162, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JC00572,
https://doi.org/10.1029/94JC00572, 1994. a
Evensen, G.: The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical
implementation, Ocean Dynam., 53, 343–367,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9, 2003. a
Fallah, B. and Cubasch, U.: A comparison of model simulations of Asian
mega-droughts during the past millennium with proxy reconstructions, Clim.
Past, 11, 253–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, 2015. a
Fallah, B., Sodoudi, S., and Cubasch, U.: Westerly jet stream and past
millennium climate change in Arid Central Asia simulated by COSMO-CLM model,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 124, 1079–1088,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1479-x, 2016. a, b
Fischer, N. and Jungclaus, J. H.: Evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle
in a transient Holocene simulation: orbital forcing and sea-ice, Clim. Past,
7, 1139–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1139-2011, 2011. a
Franke, J., Brönnimann, S., Bhend, J., and Brugnara, Y.: A monthly global
paleo-reanalysis of the atmosphere from 1600 to 2005 for studying past
climatic variations, Scientific Data, 4, 170076,
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.76, 2017. a
GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER) research group: Optimal interpolation Fortran module with Octave interface,
available at: http://modb.oce.ulg.ac.be/mediawiki/index.php/Optimal_interpolation_Fortran_module_with_Octave_interface, last access: 20 September 2018.
Goosse, H.: An additional step toward comprehensive paleoclimate reanalyses, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 8, 1501–1503,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000739, 2016. a, b
Goswami, P., Shivappa, H., and Goud, S.: Comparative analysis of the role of
domain size, horizontal resolution and initial conditions in the simulation
of tropical heavy rainfall events, Meteorol. Appl., 19, 170–178,
2012. a
Hakim, G. J., Emile-Geay, J., Steig, E. J., Noone, D., Anderson, D. M., Tardif,
R., Steiger, N., and Perkins, W. A.: The last millennium climate reanalysis
project: Framework and first results, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121,
6745–6764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751, 2016. a
Hamill, T. M.: Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation, in: Predictability
of Weather and Climate, edited by: Palmer, T. and Hagedorn, R., Cambridge
University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511617652.007, 2006. a
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D.,
and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface
temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113,
D20119,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201, 2008. a, b
Hollweg, H., Boehm, U., Fast, I., Hennemuth, B., Keuler, K., Keup-Thiel, E.,
Lautenschlager, M., Legutke, S., Radtke, K., Rockel, B., Schubert, M., Will,
A., Woldt, M., and Wunram, C.: Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the
Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios, Tech. rep.,
M und D Technical Report 3, World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ, https://doi.org/10.2312/WDCC/MaD_TeReport_No03, last access: 20 September 2018. a
Hughes, M., Guiot, J., and Ammann, C.: An emerging paradigm: Process-based
climate reconstructions, PAGES news, 18, 87–89, 2010. a
Huntley, H. and Hakim, G.: Assimilation of time-averaged observations in a
quasi-geostrophic atmospheric jet model, Clim. Dynam., 35, 995–1009,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0714-5, 2010. a
Jones, P. D. and Mann, M. E.: Climate over past millennia, Rev. Geophys., 42,
RG2002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004. a
Kaspar, F. and Cubasch, U.: Simulation of East African precipitation patterns
with the regional climate model CLM, Meteorol. Z., 17,
511–517, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0299, 2008. a
Larsen, M. A., Thejll, P., Christensen, J. H., Refsgaard, J. C., and Jensen,
K. H.: On the role of domain size and resolution in the simulations with the
HIRHAM region climate model, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2903–2918, 2013. a
Latif, M., Claussen, M., Schulz, M., and Brücher, T.: Comprehensive Earth
system models of the last glacial cycle, Eos, 97, https://doi.org/10.1029/2016EO059587, 2016. a, b
Masson, V., Cheddadi, R., Braconnot, P., Joussaume, S., and Texier, D.:
Mid-Holocene climate in Europe: what can we infer from PMIP model-data
comparisons?, Clim. Dynam., 15, 163–182,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050275, 1999. a
Matsikaris, A., Widmann, M., and Jungclaus, J.: On-line and off-line data
assimilation in palaeoclimatology: a case study, Clim. Past, 11, 81–93,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, 2015. a
Matsikaris, A., Widmann, M., and Jungclaus, J.: Influence of proxy data
uncertainty on data assimilation for the past climate, Clim. Past, 12,
1555–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1555-2016, 2016. a
Mauri, A., Davis, B., Collins, P., and Kaplan, J.: The climate of Europe
during the Holocene: a gridded pollen-based reconstruction and its
multi-proxy evaluation, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 112, 109–127,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.01.013, 2015. a, b, c
Mazza, E., Ulbrich, U., and Klein, R.: The Tropical Transition of the October 1996
Medicane in the Western Mediterranean Sea: A Warm Seclusion Event, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 2575–2595, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0474.1,
2017. a
Miguez-Macho, G., Stenchikov, G. L., and Robock, A.: Spectral nudging to
eliminate the effects of domain position and geometry in regional climate
model simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109,
D13104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004495, 2004. a
Okazaki, A. and Yoshimura, K.: Development and evaluation of a system of
proxy data assimilation for paleoclimate reconstruction, Clim. Past, 13,
379–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d
Pardowitz, T., Befort, D. J., Leckebusch, G. C., and Ulbrich, U.: Estimating
uncertainties from high resolution simulations of extreme wind storms and
consequences for impacts, Meteorol. Z., 25, 531–541,
https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0582, 2016. a
Perkins, W. A. and Hakim, G. J.: Reconstructing paleoclimate fields using
online data assimilation with a linear inverse model, Clim. Past, 13,
421–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-421-2017, 2017. a, b
Prömmel, K., Cubasch, U., and Kaspar, F.: A regional climate model study
of the impact of tectonic and orbital forcing on African precipitation and
vegetation, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 369, 154–162,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.10.015,
2013. a
Renssen, H., Isarin, R., Jacob, D., Podzun, R., and Vandenberghe, J.:
Simulation of the Younger Dryas climate in Europe using a regional climate
model nested in an AGCM: preliminary results, Glob. Planet. Change, 30,
41–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(01)00076-5, 2001. a
Russo, E.: Mid-to-Late Holocene Climate and Ecological Changes over Europe,
PhD thesis, Freie Universität of Berlin, Berlin, Germany, 2016. a
Samartin, S., Heiri, O., Joos, F., Renssen, H., Franke, J., Brönnimann,
S., and Tinner, W.: Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers inferred from
fossil midge assemblages, Nat. Geosci., 10, 207–212,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2891, 2017. a, b, c
Steiger, N. and Hakim,
G.: Multi-timescale data assimilation for atmosphere–ocean state estimates,
Clim. Past, 12, 1375–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1375-2016,
2016. a, b
Steiger, N. J. and Smerdon, J. E.: A pseudoproxy assessment of data
assimilation for reconstructing the atmosphere–ocean dynamics of
hydroclimate extremes, Clim. Past, 13, 1435–1449,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1435-2017, 2017. a
Talagrand, O.: Assimilation of observations, an introduction, J. Meteorol. S.
Jpn. Series 2, 75, 81–99, 1997. a
Verbunt, M., Walser, A., Gurtz, J., Montani, A., and Schär, C.:
Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction
system: selected case studies, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 897–909,
2007. a
Wang, Y., Bellus, M., Wittmann, C., Steinheimer, M., Weidle, F., Kann, A., Ivatek-Sahdan, S.,
Tian, W., Ma, X., Tascu, S., and Bazile, E.: The Central European limited-area ensemble
forecasting system: ALADIN-LAEF, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 483–502, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.751, 2011. a
Short summary
We try to test and evaluate an approach for using two main sources of information on the climate of the past: climate model simulations and proxies. This is done via data assimilation (DA), a method that blends these two sources of information in an intelligent way. However, DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Here, we tested the ability of a computationally affordable DA to reconstruct high-resolution climate fields.
We try to test and evaluate an approach for using two main sources of information on the climate...
