Articles | Volume 10, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Mar 2014
Research article |
| 28 Mar 2014
Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation
G. Strandberg
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
E. Kjellström
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
A. Poska
Department of Earth and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
S. Wagner
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
M.-J. Gaillard
Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
A.-K. Trondman
Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
A. Mauri
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
B. A. S. Davis
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
J. O. Kaplan
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
H. J. B. Birks
Department of Biology and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Environmental Change Research Centre, University College London, London, UK
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Environmental Change Research Centre, University College London, London, UK
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
A. E. Bjune
Uni Climate, Uni Research AS and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
R. Fyfe
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
T. Giesecke
Department of Palynology and Climate Dynamics, Albrecht-von-Haller Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
L. Kalnina
Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
M. Kangur
Institute of Ecology, Tallin University, Tallin, Estonia
W. O. van der Knaap
Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
U. Kokfelt
Department of Earth and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
Center for Permafrost, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
M. Lata\l owa
Laboratory of Palaeoecology and Archaeobotany, Department of Plant Ecology, University of Gdańsk, Gdańsk, Poland
L. Marquer
Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
F. Mazier
Department of Earth and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
GEODE, UMR 5602, University of Toulouse, Toulouse, France
A. B. Nielsen
Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
Department of Geology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Department of Earth and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
H. Seppä
Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
S. Sugita
Institute of Ecology, Tallin University, Tallin, Estonia
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Anne Sophie Daloz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Priscilla Mooney, Susanna Strada, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, 2022
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Snow plays a major role in the regulation of the Earth's surface temperature. Together with climate change, rising temperatures are already altering snow in many ways. In this context, it is crucial to better understand the ability of climate models to represent snow and snow processes. This work focuses on Europe and shows that the melting season in spring still represents a challenge for climate models and that more work is needed to accurately simulate snow–atmosphere interactions.
Priscilla A. Mooney, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Anne Sophie Daloz, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 1383–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, 2022
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We use multiple regional climate models to show that afforestation in sub-polar and alpine regions reduces the radiative impact of snow albedo on the atmosphere, reduces snow cover, and delays the start of the snowmelt season. This is important for local communities that are highly reliant on snowpack for water resources and winter tourism. However, models disagree on the amount of change particularly when snow is melting. This shows that more research is needed on snow–vegetation interactions.
Esther Githumbi, Ralph Fyfe, Marie-Jose Gaillard, Anna-Kari Trondman, Florence Mazier, Anne-Birgitte Nielsen, Anneli Poska, Shinya Sugita, Jessie Woodbridge, Julien Azuara, Angelica Feurdean, Roxana Grindean, Vincent Lebreton, Laurent Marquer, Nathalie Nebout-Combourieu, Miglė Stančikaitė, Ioan Tanţău, Spassimir Tonkov, Lyudmila Shumilovskikh, and LandClimII data contributors
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1581–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1581-2022, 2022
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Reconstruction of past land cover is necessary for the study of past climate–land cover interactions and the evaluation of climate models and land-use scenarios. We used 1128 available pollen records from across Europe covering the last 11 700 years in the REVEALS model to calculate percentage cover and associated standard errors for 31 taxa, 12 plant functional types and 3 land-cover types. REVEALS results are reliant on the quality of the input datasets.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Sandy P. Harrison, Roberto Villegas-Diaz, Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Daniel Gallagher, David Kesner, Paul Lincoln, Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Daniele Colombaroli, Adam Ali, Chéïma Barhoumi, Yves Bergeron, Tatiana Blyakharchuk, Přemysl Bobek, Richard Bradshaw, Jennifer L. Clear, Sambor Czerwiński, Anne-Laure Daniau, John Dodson, Kevin J. Edwards, Mary E. Edwards, Angelica Feurdean, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Mariusz Gałka, Michelle Garneau, Thomas Giesecke, Graciela Gil Romera, Martin P. Girardin, Dana Hoefer, Kangyou Huang, Jun Inoue, Eva Jamrichová, Nauris Jasiunas, Wenying Jiang, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Niina Kuosmanen, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Martin Lavoie, Fang Li, Jianyong Li, Olga Lisitsyna, José Antonio López-Sáez, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Gabriel Magnan, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Alekss Maksims, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Jenn Marlon, Scott Mensing, Joanna Miroslaw-Grabowska, Wyatt Oswald, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Sanna Piilo, Anneli Poska, Xiaoguang Qin, Cécile C. Remy, Pierre J. H. Richard, Sakari Salonen, Naoko Sasaki, Hieke Schneider, William Shotyk, Migle Stancikaite, Dace Šteinberga, Normunds Stivrins, Hikaru Takahara, Zhihai Tan, Liva Trasune, Charles E. Umbanhowar, Minna Väliranta, Jüri Vassiljev, Xiayun Xiao, Qinghai Xu, Xin Xu, Edyta Zawisza, Yan Zhao, Zheng Zhou, and Jordan Paillard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, 2022
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We provide a new global data set of charcoal preserved in sediments that can be used to examine how fire regimes have changed during past millennia and to investigate what caused these changes. The individual records have been standardised, and new age models have been constructed to allow better comparison across sites. The data set contains 1681 records from 1477 sites worldwide.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
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In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
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The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
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As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Adrian Gustafson, Paul A. Miller, Robert G. Björk, Stefan Olin, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 6329–6347, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, 2021
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We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021
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Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and for carbon storage. In Europe, forests are intensively managed. To understand how management influences carbon storage in European forests, we implement detailed forest management into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We test the model by comparing model output to typical forestry measures, such as growing stock and harvest data, for different countries in Europe.
Vojtěch Abraham, Sheila Hicks, Helena Svobodová-Svitavská, Elissaveta Bozilova, Sampson Panajiotidis, Mariana Filipova-Marinova, Christin Eldegard Jensen, Spassimir Tonkov, Irena Agnieszka Pidek, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Marcelina Zimny, Eliso Kvavadze, Anna Filbrandt-Czaja, Martina Hättestrand, Nurgül Karlıoğlu Kılıç, Jana Kosenko, Maria Nosova, Elena Severova, Olga Volkova, Margrét Hallsdóttir, Laimdota Kalniņa, Agnieszka M. Noryśkiewicz, Bożena Noryśkiewicz, Heather Pardoe, Areti Christodoulou, Tiiu Koff, Sonia L. Fontana, Teija Alenius, Elisabeth Isaksson, Heikki Seppä, Siim Veski, Anna Pędziszewska, Martin Weiser, and Thomas Giesecke
Biogeosciences, 18, 4511–4534, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4511-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4511-2021, 2021
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We present a continental dataset of pollen accumulation rates (PARs) collected by pollen traps. This absolute measure of pollen rain (grains cm−2 yr−1) has a positive relationship to current vegetation and latitude. Trap and fossil PARs have similar values within one region, so it opens up possibilities for using fossil PARs to reconstruct past changes in plant biomass and primary productivity. The dataset is available in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database.
Jed O. Kaplan and Katie Hong-Kiu Lau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3219–3237, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021, 2021
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Lightning is an important atmospheric phenomenon and natural hazard, but few long-term data are freely available on lightning stroke location, timing, and power. Here, we present a new, open-access dataset of lightning strokes covering 2010–2020, based on a network of low-frequency radio detectors. The dataset is comprised of GIS maps and is intended for researchers, government, industry, and anyone for whom knowing when and where lightning is likely to strike is useful information.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
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This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 2181–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, 2021
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes changes in the sea surface temperature patterns of the Pacific Ocean. This influences the global weather, impacting vegetation on land. There are two types of El Niño: central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP). In this study, we explored the long-term impacts on the carbon balance on land linked to the two El Niño types. Using a dynamic vegetation model, we simulated what would happen if only either CP or EP El Niño events had occurred.
Gustav Strandberg and Petter Lind
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, 2021
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Precipitation is a key climate variable with a large impact on society but also difficult to simulate as it depends largely on temporal and spatial scales. We look here at the effect of model resolution on precipitation in Europe, from coarse-scale global model to small-scale regional models. Higher resolution improves simulated precipitation generally, but individual models may over- or underestimate precipitation even at higher resolution.
Angelica Feurdean, Roxana Grindean, Gabriela Florescu, Ioan Tanţău, Eva M. Niedermeyer, Andrei-Cosmin Diaconu, Simon M. Hutchinson, Anne Brigitte Nielsen, Tiberiu Sava, Andrei Panait, Mihaly Braun, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 18, 1081–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1081-2021, 2021
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Here we used multi-proxy analyses from Lake Oltina (Romania) and quantitatively examine the past 6000 years of the forest steppe in the lower Danube Plain, one of the oldest areas of human occupation in southeastern Europe. We found the greatest tree cover between 6000 and 2500 cal yr BP. Forest loss was under way by 2500 yr BP, falling to ~20 % tree cover linked to clearance for agriculture. The weak signs of forest recovery over the past 2500 years highlight recurring anthropogenic pressure.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, 2021
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Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, Erik Kjellström, Changgui Lin, Daniela Matei, Anders Moberg, and Evangelos Tyrlis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, 2020
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Two long-lasting high-pressure systems in summer 2018 led to heat waves over Scandinavia and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on both agriculture and human life. Using five climate model ensembles, the unique 263-year Stockholm temperature time series and a composite 150-year time series for the whole of Sweden, we found that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer, such as the one observed in 2018, occurring in Sweden.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
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To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Basil A. S. Davis, Manuel Chevalier, Philipp Sommer, Vachel A. Carter, Walter Finsinger, Achille Mauri, Leanne N. Phelps, Marco Zanon, Roman Abegglen, Christine M. Åkesson, Francisca Alba-Sánchez, R. Scott Anderson, Tatiana G. Antipina, Juliana R. Atanassova, Ruth Beer, Nina I. Belyanina, Tatiana A. Blyakharchuk, Olga K. Borisova, Elissaveta Bozilova, Galina Bukreeva, M. Jane Bunting, Eleonora Clò, Daniele Colombaroli, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Stéphanie Desprat, Federico Di Rita, Morteza Djamali, Kevin J. Edwards, Patricia L. Fall, Angelica Feurdean, William Fletcher, Assunta Florenzano, Giulia Furlanetto, Emna Gaceur, Arsenii T. Galimov, Mariusz Gałka, Iria García-Moreiras, Thomas Giesecke, Roxana Grindean, Maria A. Guido, Irina G. Gvozdeva, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kari L. Hjelle, Sergey Ivanov, Susanne Jahns, Vlasta Jankovska, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Ikuko Kitaba, Piotr Kołaczek, Elena G. Lapteva, Małgorzata Latałowa, Vincent Lebreton, Suzanne Leroy, Michelle Leydet, Darya A. Lopatina, José Antonio López-Sáez, André F. Lotter, Donatella Magri, Elena Marinova, Isabelle Matthias, Anastasia Mavridou, Anna Maria Mercuri, Jose Manuel Mesa-Fernández, Yuri A. Mikishin, Krystyna Milecka, Carlo Montanari, César Morales-Molino, Almut Mrotzek, Castor Muñoz Sobrino, Olga D. Naidina, Takeshi Nakagawa, Anne Birgitte Nielsen, Elena Y. Novenko, Sampson Panajiotidis, Nata K. Panova, Maria Papadopoulou, Heather S. Pardoe, Anna Pędziszewska, Tatiana I. Petrenko, María J. Ramos-Román, Cesare Ravazzi, Manfred Rösch, Natalia Ryabogina, Silvia Sabariego Ruiz, J. Sakari Salonen, Tatyana V. Sapelko, James E. Schofield, Heikki Seppä, Lyudmila Shumilovskikh, Normunds Stivrins, Philipp Stojakowits, Helena Svobodova Svitavska, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Ioan Tantau, Willy Tinner, Kazimierz Tobolski, Spassimir Tonkov, Margarita Tsakiridou, Verushka Valsecchi, Oksana G. Zanina, and Marcelina Zimny
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2423–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2423-2020, 2020
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The Eurasian Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) contains pollen counts and associated metadata for 8134 modern pollen samples from across the Eurasian region. The EMPD is part of, and complementary to, the European Pollen Database (EPD) which contains data on fossil pollen found in Late Quaternary sedimentary archives. The purpose of the EMPD is to provide calibration datasets and other data to support palaeoecological research on past climates and vegetation cover over the Quaternary period.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Pengfei Liu, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8827–8838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, 2020
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Using a coupled vegetation–fire–climate modeling framework, we show a northward shift in forests and increased lightning fire activity in northern US states, including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Our findings suggest a large climate penalty on ecosystem, air quality, visibility, and human health in a region valued for its national forests and parks. The fine-scale smoke PM predictions provided in this study should prove useful to human health and environmental assessments.
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, 2020
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Regional Climate Models constitute a downscaling tool to provide high-resolution data for impact and adaptation studies. However, there is no unique definition of the added value of downscaling as it depends on many factors. We investigate the impact of spatial resolution and model formulation on downscaled rainfall in Africa. Our results show that improvements in downscaled rainfall compared to the driving reanalysis are often related to model formulation and not always to higher resolution.
Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, and Minchao Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020
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A new regional climate modelling system, HCLIM38, is presented and shown to be applicable in different regions ranging from the tropics to the Arctic. The main focus is on climate simulations at horizontal resolutions between 1 and 4 km, the so-called convection-permitting scales, even though the model can also be used at coarser resolutions. The benefits of simulating climate at convection-permitting scales are shown and are particularly evident for climate extremes.
Angelica Feurdean, Boris Vannière, Walter Finsinger, Dan Warren, Simon C. Connor, Matthew Forrest, Johan Liakka, Andrei Panait, Christian Werner, Maja Andrič, Premysl Bobek, Vachel A. Carter, Basil Davis, Andrei-Cosmin Diaconu, Elisabeth Dietze, Ingo Feeser, Gabriela Florescu, Mariusz Gałka, Thomas Giesecke, Susanne Jahns, Eva Jamrichová, Katarzyna Kajukało, Jed Kaplan, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Petr Kuneš, Dimitry Kupriyanov, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Carsten Lemmen, Enikö K. Magyari, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Aidin Niamir, Elena Novenko, Milena Obremska, Anna Pędziszewska, Mirjam Pfeiffer, Anneli Poska, Manfred Rösch, Michal Słowiński, Miglė Stančikaitė, Marta Szal, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Ioan Tanţău, Martin Theuerkauf, Spassimir Tonkov, Orsolya Valkó, Jüri Vassiljev, Siim Veski, Ildiko Vincze, Agnieszka Wacnik, Julian Wiethold, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 17, 1213–1230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1213-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1213-2020, 2020
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Our study covers the full Holocene (the past 11 500 years) climate variability and vegetation composition and provides a test on how vegetation and climate interact to determine fire hazard. An important implication of this test is that percentage of tree cover can be used as a predictor of the probability of fire occurrence. Biomass burned is highest at ~ 45 % tree cover in temperate forests and at ~ 60–65 % tree cover in needleleaf-dominated forests.
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
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The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Erika Coppola, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa L. Jach, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Kai Radtke, Mario Raffa, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Tölle, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 183–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, 2020
Sergio Cohuo, Laura Macario-González, Sebastian Wagner, Katrin Naumann, Paula Echeverría-Galindo, Liseth Pérez, Jason Curtis, Mark Brenner, and Antje Schwalb
Biogeosciences, 17, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-145-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-145-2020, 2020
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We evaluated how freshwater ostracode species responded to long-term and abrupt climate fluctuations during the last 155 kyr in the northern Neotropical region. We used fossil records and species distribution modelling. Fossil evidence suggests negligible effects of long-term climate variations on aquatic niche stability. Models suggest that abrupt climate fluctuation forced species to migrate south to Central America. Micro-refugia and meta-populations can explain survival of endemic species.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
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Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Maria Pyrina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Xianyong Cao, Fang Tian, Furong Li, Marie-José Gaillard, Natalia Rudaya, Qinghai Xu, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 15, 1503–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1503-2019, 2019
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The high-quality pollen records (collected from lakes and peat bogs) of the last 40 ka cal BP form north Asia are homogenized and the plant abundance signals are calibrated by the modern relative pollen productivity estimates. Calibrated plant abundances for each site are generally consistent with in situ modern vegetation, and vegetation changes within the regions are characterized by minor changes in the abundance of major taxa rather than by invasions of new taxa during the last 40 ka cal BP.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1129–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, 2019
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Reconstructions try to extract a climate signal from paleo-observations. It is essential to understand their uncertainties. Similarly, comparing climate simulations and paleo-observations requires approaches to address their uncertainties. We describe a simple but flexible noise model for climate proxies for temperature on millennial timescales, which can assist these goals.
Liisa Ilvonen, José Antonio López-Sáez, Lasse Holmström, Francisca Alba-Sánchez, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, José S. Carrión, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-33, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In the Iberian Peninsula, precipitation is a key driver of vegetation changes. Here, we use a pollen-climate calibration set and fossil pollen data from seven sites in Spain to reconstruct annual precipitation values for the last 15 000 years using two different quantitative methods. The results suggest that the precipitation changes have occurred in pace with the temperature changes in northern Europe, with warm periods in the North corresponding with humid periods in the Iberian Peninsula.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, 2019
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Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Michael Boy, Erik S. Thomson, Juan-C. Acosta Navarro, Olafur Arnalds, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Jaana Bäck, Frank Berninger, Merete Bilde, Zoé Brasseur, Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Dimitri Castarède, Maryam Dalirian, Gerrit de Leeuw, Monika Dragosics, Ella-Maria Duplissy, Jonathan Duplissy, Annica M. L. Ekman, Keyan Fang, Jean-Charles Gallet, Marianne Glasius, Sven-Erik Gryning, Henrik Grythe, Hans-Christen Hansson, Margareta Hansson, Elisabeth Isaksson, Trond Iversen, Ingibjorg Jonsdottir, Ville Kasurinen, Alf Kirkevåg, Atte Korhola, Radovan Krejci, Jon Egill Kristjansson, Hanna K. Lappalainen, Antti Lauri, Matti Leppäranta, Heikki Lihavainen, Risto Makkonen, Andreas Massling, Outi Meinander, E. Douglas Nilsson, Haraldur Olafsson, Jan B. C. Pettersson, Nønne L. Prisle, Ilona Riipinen, Pontus Roldin, Meri Ruppel, Matthew Salter, Maria Sand, Øyvind Seland, Heikki Seppä, Henrik Skov, Joana Soares, Andreas Stohl, Johan Ström, Jonas Svensson, Erik Swietlicki, Ksenia Tabakova, Throstur Thorsteinsson, Aki Virkkula, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Yusheng Wu, Paul Zieger, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2015–2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2015-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2015-2019, 2019
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The Nordic Centre of Excellence CRAICC (Cryosphere–Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate), funded by NordForsk in the years 2011–2016, is the largest joint Nordic research and innovation initiative to date and aimed to strengthen research and innovation regarding climate change issues in the Nordic region. The paper presents an overview of the main scientific topics investigated and provides a state-of-the-art comprehensive summary of what has been achieved in CRAICC.
Vanessa Haverd, Benjamin Smith, Lars Nieradzik, Peter R. Briggs, William Woodgate, Cathy M. Trudinger, Josep G. Canadell, and Matthias Cuntz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, 2018
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CABLE is a terrestrial biosphere model that can be applied stand-alone and provides for land surface–atmosphere exchange within a climate model. We extend CABLE for regional and global carbon–climate simulations, accounting for land use and land cover change mediated by tree demography. A novel algorithm to simulate the coordination of rate-limiting photosynthetic processes is also implemented. Simulations satisfy multiple observational constraints on the global land carbon cycle.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, 2018
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Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018
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Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
Emeline Chaste, Martin P. Girardin, Jed O. Kaplan, Jeanne Portier, Yves Bergeron, and Christelle Hély
Biogeosciences, 15, 1273–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, 2018
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A vegetation model was used to reconstruct fire activity from 1901 to 2012 in relation to changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation in eastern Canada's boreal forest. The model correctly simulated the history of fire activity. The results showed that fire activity is ignition limited but is also greatly affected by both climate and vegetation. This research aims to develop a vegetation model that could be used to predict the future impacts of climate changes on fire activity.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Karin T. Rebel, Stefan C. Dekker, Benjamin Smith, Arthur H. W. Beusen, and Martin J. Wassen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1121–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, 2017
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Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO2 concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gabriel Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Caitlin Moore, Youngryel Ryu, Simon Scheiter, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 14, 4711–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, 2017
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This paper attempts to review some of the current challenges faced by the modelling community in simulating the behaviour of savanna ecosystems. We provide a particular focus on three dynamic processes (phenology, root-water access, and fire) that are characteristic of savannas, which we believe are not adequately represented in current-generation terrestrial biosphere models. We highlight reasons for these misrepresentations, possible solutions and a future direction for research in this area.
Philipp S. Sommer and Jed O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3771–3791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3771-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3771-2017, 2017
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We present GWGEN, a computer program for converting monthly climate data into estimates of daily weather, using statistical methods. The GWGEN weather generator program was developed using a global database of more than 5 million observations of daily weather, and it simulates daily values of minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models.
Maria Pyrina, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 13, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017, 2017
Kerstin Engström, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, John Hassler, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 773–799, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, 2017
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Applying a global carbon tax on fossil was shown to lead to increased bioenergy production in four out of five scenarios. Increased bioenergy production led to global cropland changes that were up to 50 % larger by 2100 compared to the reference case (without global carbon tax). For scenarios with strong cropland expansion due to high population growth coupled with low technological change or bioenergy production, the biosphere was simulated to switch from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
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The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Minchao Wu, Guy Schurgers, Markku Rummukainen, Benjamin Smith, Patrick Samuelsson, Christer Jansson, Joe Siltberg, and Wilhelm May
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 627–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, 2016
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On Earth, vegetation does not merely adapt to climate but also imposes significant influences on climate with both local and remote effects. In this study we evaluated the role of vegetation in African climate with a regional Earth system model. By the comparison between the experiments with and without dynamic vegetation changes, we found that vegetation can influence climate remotely, resulting in modulating rainfall patterns over Africa.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gab Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko Duursma, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Youngryel Ryu, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 13, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, 2016
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In this study we assess how well terrestrial biosphere models perform at predicting water and carbon cycling for savanna ecosystems. We apply our models to five savanna sites in Northern Australia and highlight key causes for model failure. Our assessment of model performance uses a novel benchmarking system that scores a model’s predictive ability based on how well it is utilizing its driving information. On average, we found the models as a group display only moderate levels of performance.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
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We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
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We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Zhen Zhang, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Jed O. Kaplan, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 13, 1387–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, 2016
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This study investigates improvements and uncertainties associated with estimating global inundated area and wetland CH4 emissions using TOPMODEL. Different topographic information and catchment aggregation schemes are evaluated against seasonal and permanently inundated wetland observations. Reducing uncertainty in prognostic wetland dynamics modeling must take into account forcing data as well as topographic scaling schemes.
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, Sebastian Wagner, and Juan José Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 12, 317–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016, 2016
V. Haverd, B. Smith, M. Raupach, P. Briggs, L. Nieradzik, J. Beringer, L. Hutley, C. M. Trudinger, and J. Cleverly
Biogeosciences, 13, 761–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, 2016
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We present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation in savannas, and test it using data from the OzFlux network. Model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant physiology and vegetation dynamics, in response to resource availability, and not from imposed hypotheses about the controls on tree-grass co-existence. Results indicate that resource limitation is a stronger determinant of tree cover than disturbance in Australian savannas.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
J. Azuara, N. Combourieu-Nebout, V. Lebreton, F. Mazier, S. D. Müller, and L. Dezileau
Clim. Past, 11, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1769-2015, 2015
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High-resolution pollen analyses undertaken on two cores from southern France allow us to separate anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts on environments over the last 4500 years. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the late Holocene, and three superimposed arid events are recorded around 4400, 2600 and 1200cal BP coinciding in time with Bond events. Human influence on vegetation is attested since the Bronze Age and became dominant at the beginning of the High Middle Ages.
S. Olin, M. Lindeskog, T. A. M. Pugh, G. Schurgers, D. Wårlind, M. Mishurov, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, B. Smith, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015
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Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being. Properly managed they can supply food, store carbon and even sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Conversely, if poorly managed, croplands can be a source of nitrogen to inland and coastal waters, causing algal blooms, and a source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, accentuating climate change. Here we studied cropland management types for their potential to store carbon and minimize nitrogen losses while maintaining crop yields.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
M. J. McGrath, S. Luyssaert, P. Meyfroidt, J. O. Kaplan, M. Bürgi, Y. Chen, K. Erb, U. Gimmi, D. McInerney, K. Naudts, J. Otto, F. Pasztor, J. Ryder, M.-J. Schelhaas, and A. Valade
Biogeosciences, 12, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, 2015
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Studying century-scale ecological processes and their legacy effects requires taking forest management into account. In this study we produce spatially and temporally explicit maps of European forest management from 1600 to 2010. The most important changes between 1600 and 2010 are an increase of 593 000km2 in conifers at the expense of deciduous forest, a 612 000km2 decrease in unmanaged forest, a 152 000km2 decrease in coppice management and a 818 000km2 increase in high stand management.
P. Achakulwisut, L. J. Mickley, L. T. Murray, A. P. K. Tai, J. O. Kaplan, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7977–7998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, 2015
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The atmosphere’s oxidative capacity determines the lifetime of many trace gases important to climate, chemistry, and human health. Yet uncertainties remain about its past variations, its controlling factors, and the radiative forcing of short-lived species it influences. To reduce these uncertainties, we must better quantify the natural emissions and chemical reaction mechanisms of organic compounds in the atmosphere, which play a role in governing the oxidative capacity.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
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We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
J. Tang, P. A. Miller, A. Persson, D. Olefeldt, P. Pilesjö, M. Heliasz, M. Jackowicz-Korczynski, Z. Yang, B. Smith, T. V. Callaghan, and T. R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 12, 2791–2808, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2791-2015, 2015
S. Olin, G. Schurgers, M. Lindeskog, D. Wårlind, B. Smith, P. Bodin, J. Holmér, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015
A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, N. Fischer, K. Haberkorn, S. Wagner, M. Pfeiffer, L. Jin, V. Khon, Y. Wang, and U. Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 11, 305–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, 2015
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
P. Bragée, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, P. Rosén, D. Fredh, A. Broström, W. Granéli, and D. Hammarlund
Biogeosciences, 12, 307–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-307-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-307-2015, 2015
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, P. M. Collins, and J. O. Kaplan
Clim. Past, 10, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, 2014
W. Zhang, C. Jansson, P. A. Miller, B. Smith, and P. Samuelsson
Biogeosciences, 11, 5503–5519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, 2014
H. S. Sundqvist, D. S. Kaufman, N. P. McKay, N. L. Balascio, J. P. Briner, L. C. Cwynar, H. P. Sejrup, H. Seppä, D. A. Subetto, J. T. Andrews, Y. Axford, J. Bakke, H. J. B. Birks, S. J. Brooks, A. de Vernal, A. E. Jennings, F. C. Ljungqvist, K. M. Rühland, C. Saenger, J. P. Smol, and A. E. Viau
Clim. Past, 10, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, 2014
N. Korhonen, A. Venäläinen, H. Seppä, and H. Järvinen
Clim. Past, 10, 1489–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, 2014
V. Haverd, B. Smith, L. P. Nieradzik, and P. R. Briggs
Biogeosciences, 11, 4039–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, 2014
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
L. T. Murray, L. J. Mickley, J. O. Kaplan, E. D. Sofen, M. Pfeiffer, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014
K. Steffens, M. Larsbo, J. Moeys, E. Kjellström, N. Jarvis, and E. Lewan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 479–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-479-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-479-2014, 2014
Y. Wang, U. Herzschuh, L. S. Shumilovskikh, S. Mischke, H. J. B. Birks, J. Wischnewski, J. Böhner, F. Schlütz, F. Lehmkuhl, B. Diekmann, B. Wünnemann, and C. Zhang
Clim. Past, 10, 21–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-21-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-21-2014, 2014
T. Hoffmann, S. M. Mudd, K. van Oost, G. Verstraeten, G. Erkens, A. Lang, H. Middelkoop, J. Boyle, J. O. Kaplan, J. Willenbring, and R. Aalto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 1, 45–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-45-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-45-2013, 2013
M. Lindeskog, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, K. Waha, J. Seaquist, S. Olin, and B. Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013
M. Scherstjanoi, J. O. Kaplan, E. Thürig, and H. Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1517–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013, 2013
V. Beck, C. Gerbig, T. Koch, M. M. Bela, K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, J. O. Kaplan, C. Prigent, P. Bergamaschi, and M. Heimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7961–7982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7961-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7961-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
M. Pfeiffer, A. Spessa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
D. Fredh, A. Broström, M. Rundgren, P. Lagerås, F. Mazier, and L. Zillén
Biogeosciences, 10, 3159–3173, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3159-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3159-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
A global Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns from 21 000–0 BP (DAMP-21ka) using lake level proxy records
New probabilistic methods for quantitative climate reconstructions applied to palynological data from Lake Kinneret
Internal climate variability and spatial temperature correlations during the past 2000 years
Mid-Holocene climate change over China: model–data discrepancy
The 4.2 ka BP event in the Levant
Climate change and ecosystems dynamics over the last 6000 years in the Middle Atlas, Morocco
The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene– comparison of different transient climate model simulations
Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study
Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene
Proxy benchmarks for intercomparison of 8.2 ka simulations
Influence of orbital forcing and solar activity on water isotopes in precipitation during the mid- and late Holocene
Simulated oxygen isotopes in cave drip water and speleothem calcite in European caves
Mechanisms for European summer temperature response to solar forcing over the last millennium
Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks
On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change
Christopher L. Hancock, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Sylvia G. Dee, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Clim. Past, 20, 2663–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, 2024
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We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data–model disagreement in east Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns, as well as orbital forcing, are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
Timon Netzel, Andrea Miebach, Thomas Litt, and Andreas Hense
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1790, 2023
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New probabilistic methods for local quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions are presented in a Bayesian framework and applied to plant proxy data from Lake Kinneret. We use recent climate data and arboreal pollen from the sediment of this lake as predefined boundary conditions. The result shows a climate reconstruction of the mean December–February temperature and annual precipitation with the corresponding uncertainty ranges during the Holocene in this region.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
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Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Yating Lin, Gilles Ramstein, Haibin Wu, Raj Rani, Pascale Braconnot, Masa Kageyama, Qin Li, Yunli Luo, Ran Zhang, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 15, 1223–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, 2019
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The mid-Holocene has been an excellent target for comparing models and data. This work shows that, over China, all the ocean–atmosphere general circulation models involved in PMIP3 show a very large discrepancy with pollen data reconstruction when comparing annual and seasonal temperature. It demonstrates that to reconcile models and data and to capture the signature of seasonal thermal response, it is necessary to integrate non-linear processes, particularly those related to vegetation changes.
David Kaniewski, Nick Marriner, Rachid Cheddadi, Joël Guiot, and Elise Van Campo
Clim. Past, 14, 1529–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1529-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1529-2018, 2018
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Studies have long suggested that a protracted drought phase, termed the 4.2 ka BP event, directly impacted subsistence systems (dry farming agro-production, pastoral nomadism, and fishing) and outlying nomad habitats, forcing rain-fed cereal agriculturalists into habitat-tracking when agro-innovations were not available. Here, we focus on this crucial period to examine whether drought was active in the eastern Mediterranean Old World, especially in the Levant.
Majda Nourelbait, Ali Rhoujjati, Abdelfattah Benkaddour, Matthieu Carré, Frederique Eynaud, Philippe Martinez, and Rachid Cheddadi
Clim. Past, 12, 1029–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1029-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1029-2016, 2016
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The present study is related the climate changes and their environmental impacts during the last 6 ky from a fossil record collected in the Middle Atlas, Morocco. We used the reconstruction of three climate variables and geo-chemical elements to evaluate the relationships between all the environmental variables. In summary, this present study confirms the overall climate stability over the last 6 ky and highlights the presence of a short and abrupt climate event at about 5.2 ka cal BP.
A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, N. Fischer, K. Haberkorn, S. Wagner, M. Pfeiffer, L. Jin, V. Khon, Y. Wang, and U. Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 11, 305–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, 2015
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, D. M. Anderson, B. A. Bauer, R. Buckner, E. P. Gille, W. S. Gross, M. Hartman, and A. Shah
Clim. Past, 9, 423–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-423-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, G. Lohmann, S. Riechelmann, A. Borsato, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 8, 1781–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1781-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1781-2012, 2012
D. Swingedouw, L. Terray, J. Servonnat, and J. Guiot
Clim. Past, 8, 1487–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1487-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1487-2012, 2012
M.-J. Gaillard, S. Sugita, F. Mazier, A.-K. Trondman, A. Broström, T. Hickler, J. O. Kaplan, E. Kjellström, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, C. Lemmen, P. Miller, J. Olofsson, A. Poska, M. Rundgren, B. Smith, G. Strandberg, R. Fyfe, A. B. Nielsen, T. Alenius, L. Balakauskas, L. Barnekow, H. J. B. Birks, A. Bjune, L. Björkman, T. Giesecke, K. Hjelle, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, T. Koff, P. Lagerås, M. Latałowa, M. Leydet, J. Lechterbeck, M. Lindbladh, B. Odgaard, S. Peglar, U. Segerström, H. von Stedingk, and H. Seppä
Clim. Past, 6, 483–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-483-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-483-2010, 2010
J. C. Hargreaves and J. D. Annan
Clim. Past, 5, 803–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-803-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-803-2009, 2009
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