Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-935-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-935-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 May 2026
Research article |
| 06 May 2026
| 06 May 2026
Northern Greenland transect stacked ice cores as a proxy for winter extreme events in Europe
Alessandro Gagliardi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Norel Rimbu
Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Gerrit Lohmann
Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Physics Department, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Monica Ionita
Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Forest Biometrics Laboratory – Faculty of Forestry, Ştefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania
Related authors
No articles found.
Yufei Liu, Hu Yang, Haowen Dang, Gerrit Lohmann, Tao Lian, Zhengyao Lu, Xiaoxu Shi, Jiping Liu, Hang Wang, Feng Jiang, Xinyue Deng, Xiaoming Hu, and Dake Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7865695/v1, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7865695/v1, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Observations and reconstructions show that ENSO is influenced by astronomical precession in addition to anthropogenic warming. Using ~10,000-year simulations, we reconstruct a full tropical precession cycle and find that present ENSO activity is relatively strong within it. This results from asymmetric continental heating that alters the background climate and the threshold for ENSO development, linking astronomical forcing to tropical climate variability.
Monica Ionita, Bogdan Antonescu, and Viorica Nagavciuc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1457, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that the winter of 2025/26 in Romania was not historically exceptional in thermal terms, despite intense media claims to the contrary. Using long instrumental records, we show that January and February 2026 were both markedly warmer than the 1971–2000 average, while the main high-impact event, the 18th of February 2026 blizzard, was driven by a Mediterranean cyclone and strong moisture transport rather than an extreme cold outbreak.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Faranak Tootoonchi, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-955-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-955-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent, showing how organisations with preparedness measures in place responded faster and more effectively.
Lianne Sijbrandij, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, Lu Niu, Shan Xu, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174861028.86292675/v2, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174861028.86292675/v2, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Towards the end of the last ice age large proglacial lakes formed at the margins of the retreating ice sheets, staying cold due to the influence of melting ice. Modeling shows these lakes lowered summer air temperatures, increased snowfall, and in total reduced surface melt by 18–27 % for nearby ice sheets. If lakes stayed below 4 °C, melt dropped by 23–35 %, providing a substantial negative feedback for retreating of ice sheets.
Ruijian Gou, Yaocheng Deng, Yingzhe Cui, Qi Shu, Hong Wang, Shengpeng Wang, Lixin Wu, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5296, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Under anthropogenic warming, Arctic warming is nearly four times faster than global average. One key reason is the ice-albedo feedback – sea ice melting reveals the darker ocean water, which absorbs more solar radiation. Using a climate model of more refined grids, we find that the ocean absorbs more solar radiation. We attribute it to the better represented short-term extreme ocean warming events. They cause more short-term sea ice melting, allowing the ocean to absorb more solar radiation.
Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek
Ocean Sci., 21, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2895-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for about 25 % of the poleward ocean heat transport. Currently, the AMOC strength is mostly calculated in depth space (z-AMOC). However, we argue that, in warmer climates, the AMOC should be calculated in density space (ρ-AMOC). We performed simulations with CO2 forcing of 280 ppmv (PI) and 1120 ppmv of (4xCO2) and find that ρ-AMOC provides more physical and meaningful information about the AMOC in warmer climates.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel J. Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris E. Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid J. Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4475–4501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4475-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4475-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The DitA (Drought in the Anthropocene) network's study on the 2022 European drought reveals growing risks, varied impacts, and fragmented, short-term management. Based on a survey of water managers, it explores risk, impacts, strategies, and their evolution. While challenges persist, signs of improvement show readiness for change. The authors call for a European Drought Directive to unify and guide future drought risk management.
Hu Yang, Xiaoxu Shi, Xulong Wang, Qingsong Liu, Yi Zhong, Xiaodong Liu, Youbin Sun, Yanjun Cai, Fei Liu, Gerrit Lohmann, Martin Werner, Zhimin Jian, Tainã M. L. Pinho, Hai Cheng, Lijuan Lu, Jiping Liu, Chao-Yuan Yang, Qinghua Yang, Yongyun Hu, Xing Cheng, Jingyu Zhang, and Dake Chen
Clim. Past, 21, 1263–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
For 1 century, the hemispheric summer insolation is proposed as a key pacemaker of astronomical climate change. However, an increasing number of geologic records reveal that the low-latitude hydrological cycle shows asynchronous precessional evolutions that are very often out of phase with the summer insolation. Here, we propose that the astronomically driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by summer insolation but by shifting perihelion.
Lutz Schirrmeister, Margret C. Fuchs, Thomas Opel, Andrei Andreev, Frank Kienast, Andrea Schneider, Larisa Nazarova, Larisa Frolova, Svetlana Kuzmina, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Vladimir Tumskoy, Heidrun Matthes, Gerrit Lohmann, Guido Grosse, Viktor Kunitsky, Hanno Meyer, Heike H. Zimmermann, Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Stuart Umbo, Sevi Modestou, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Anfisa Pismeniuk, Georg Schwamborn, Stephanie Kusch, and Sebastian Wetterich
Clim. Past, 21, 1143–1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Geochronological, cryolithological, paleoecological, and modeling data reconstruct the Last Interglacial (LIG) climate around the New Siberian Islands and reveal significantly warmer conditions compared to today. The critical challenges in predicting future ecosystem responses lie in the fact that the land–ocean distribution during the LIG was markedly different from today, affecting the degree of continentality, which played a major role in modulating climate and ecosystem dynamics.
Wee Wei Khoo, Juliane Müller, Oliver Esper, Wenshen Xiao, Christian Stepanek, Paul Gierz, Gerrit Lohmann, Walter Geibert, Jens Hefter, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 21, 299–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using a multiproxy approach, we analyzed biomarkers and diatom assemblages from a marine sediment core from the Powell Basin, Weddell Sea. The results reveal the first continuous coastal Antarctic sea ice record since the Last Penultimate Glacial. Our findings contribute valuable insights into past glacial–interglacial sea ice responses to a changing climate and enhance our understanding of ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and dynamics.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Maria Rădoane, Cătălin-Constantin Roibu, Mihai-Gabriel Cotos, and Monica Ionita
Biogeosciences, 22, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-55-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-55-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed drought conditions for the past 200 years for central and eastern parts of Europe (Romania) using δ18O in oak tree ring cellulose from Romania, revealing periods of both extreme wetness (e.g., 1905–1915) and dryness (e.g., 1818–1835). The most severe droughts occurred in the 19th and 21st centuries, likely linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation. This research highlights the potential of tree rings to improve our understanding of long-term climate variability in Europe.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Yugeng Chen, Pengyang Song, Xianyao Chen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 20, 2001–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a period with higher tidal dissipation. Despite increased tidal mixing, our model simulations show that the AMOC remained relatively shallow, consistent with paleoproxy data and resolving previous inconsistencies between proxy data and model simulations. This research highlights the importance of strong ocean stratification during the LGM and its interaction with tidal mixing.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 5131–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We compare components of the surface energy balance from two datasets, ERA5 and ERA-Interim, which can be used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). ERA5 differs significantly from ERA-Interim, especially in the melt regions with lower temperatures and stronger shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS SMB from ERA-Interim need to be carefully recalibrated before conversion to ERA5 forcing.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals how a decline in autumn sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas leads to severe winters in Europe. Using observational data, we illustrate that Arctic sea ice loss isn't just a local issue – it impacts harsh winter conditions globally. Current climate models struggle to reflect these effects accurately, indicating a need for more research. Gaining a more nuanced understanding of this relationship will enhance our climate predictions and preparation for future extremes.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Pengyang Song, Dmitry Sidorenko, Patrick Scholz, Maik Thomas, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 383–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tides have essential effects on the ocean and climate. Most previous research applies parameterised tidal mixing to discuss their effects in models. By comparing the effect of a tidal mixing parameterisation and tidal forcing on the ocean state, we assess the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. Our results show that tidal mixing in the North Pacific Ocean strongly affects the global thermohaline circulation. We also list some effects that are not considered in the parameterisation.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Jan Streffing, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, Patrick Scholz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Nikolay Koldunov, Thomas Rackow, Joakim Kjellsson, Helge Goessling, Marylou Athanase, Qiang Wang, Jan Hegewald, Dmitry V. Sein, Longjiang Mu, Uwe Fladrich, Dirk Barbi, Paul Gierz, Sergey Danilov, Stephan Juricke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6399–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, AWI-CM3. Our model is significantly more computationally efficient than its predecessors AWI-CM1 and AWI-CM2. We show that the model, although cheaper to run, provides results of similar quality when modeling the historic period from 1850 to 2014. We identify the remaining weaknesses to outline future work. Finally we preview an improved simulation where the reduction in computational cost has to be invested in higher model resolution.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Sebastian Hinck, Evan J. Gowan, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Proglacial lakes were pervasive along the retreating continental ice margins after the Last Glacial Maximum. Similarly to the marine ice boundary, interactions at the ice-lake interface impact ice sheet dynamics and mass balance. Previous numerical ice sheet modeling studies did not include a dynamical lake boundary. We describe the implementation of an adaptive lake boundary condition in PISM and apply the model to the glacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Justus Contzen, Thorsten Dickhaus, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1803–1820, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are of paramount importance to predict future climate changes. Since many severe consequences of climate change are due to extreme events, the accurate behaviour of models in terms of extremes needs to be validated thoroughly. We present a method for model validation in terms of climate extremes and an algorithm to detect regions in which extremes tend to occur at the same time. These methods are applied to data from different climate models and to observational data.
Daniel Balting, Simon Michel, Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Vapor pressure deficit is a key component of vegetation dynamics, soil science, meteorology, and soil science. In this study, we reconstruct the variability of the vapor pressure deficit in the past and examine the changes in future scenarios using climate models. In this way, past, present and future changes of the vapor pressure deficit can be detected locally, regionally, and continentally with higher statistical significance.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Nele Lamping, Juliane Müller, Jens Hefter, Gesine Mollenhauer, Christian Haas, Xiaoxu Shi, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Gerrit Lohmann, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 17, 2305–2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed biomarker concentrations on surface sediment samples from the Antarctic continental margin. Highly branched isoprenoids and GDGTs are used for reconstructing recent sea-ice distribution patterns and ocean temperatures respectively. We compared our biomarker-based results with data obtained from satellite observations and estimated from a numerical model and find reasonable agreements. Further, we address caveats and provide recommendations for future investigations.
Petru Cosmin Vaideanu, Mihai Dima, Monica Ionita, and Mirela Voiculescu
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-75, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Observing clouds and their properties is not straightforward, however, these are important for reducing climate models uncertainties. Ground-based observations are spatially limited while satellite data are accompanied by various artefacts. In this paper, we use corrected observational and state-of-the-art reanalysis cloud data to show that the recent evolution of total cloud cover on a global scale is linked to the Eastern Pacific and the Central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Xiaoxu Shi, Dirk Notz, Jiping Liu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4891–4908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The ice–ocean heat flux is one of the key elements controlling sea ice changes. It motivates our study, which aims to examine the responses of modeled climate to three ice–ocean heat flux parameterizations, including two old approaches that assume one-way heat transport and a new one describing a double-diffusive ice–ocean heat exchange. The results show pronounced differences in the modeled sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere states for the latter as compared to the former two parameterizations.
Monica Ionita and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1685–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing the joint frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over Central Europe and the Mediterranean region. This, together with the projected increase in potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events over these regions.
Aurel Perşoiu, Nenad Buzjak, Alexandru Onaca, Christos Pennos, Yorgos Sotiriadis, Monica Ionita, Stavros Zachariadis, Michael Styllas, Jure Kosutnik, Alexandru Hegyi, and Valerija Butorac
The Cryosphere, 15, 2383–2399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme precipitation events in summer 2019 led to catastrophic loss of cave and surface ice in SE Europe at levels unprecedented during the last century. The projected continuous warming and increase in precipitation extremes could pose an additional threat to glaciers in southern Europe, resulting in a potentially ice-free SE Europe by the middle of the next decade (2035 CE).
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, Christian B. Rodehacke, Shan Xu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The surface mass balance scheme dEBM (diurnal Energy Balance Model) provides a novel, computationally inexpensive interface between the atmosphere and land ice for Earth system modeling. The dEBM is particularly suitable for Earth system modeling on multi-millennial timescales as it accounts for changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.
Daniel F. Balting, Monica Ionita, Martin Wegmann, Gerhard Helle, Gerhard H. Schleser, Norel Rimbu, Mandy B. Freund, Ingo Heinrich, Diana Caldarescu, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 17, 1005–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To extend climate information back in time, we investigate the climate sensitivity of a δ18O network from tree rings, consisting of 26 European sites and covering the last 400 years. Our results suggest that the δ18O variability is associated with large-scale anomaly patterns that resemble those observed for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We conclude that the investigation of large-scale climate signals far beyond instrumental records can be done with a δ18O network derived from tree rings.
Cited articles
Andersen, K. K., Azuma, N., Barnola, J.-M., Bigler, M., Biscaye, P., Caillon, N., Chappellaz, J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Flückiger, J., Fritzsche, D., Fujii, Y., Goto-Azuma, K., Grønvold, K., Gundestrup, N. S., Hansson, M., Huber, C., Hvidberg, C. S., Johnsen, S. J., Jonsell, U., Jouzel, J., Kipfstuhl, S., Landais, A., Leuenberger, M., Lorrain, R., Masson-Delmotte, V., Miller, H., Motoyama, H., Narita, H., Popp, T., Rasmussen, S. O., Raynaud, D., Rothlisberger, R., Ruth, U., Samyn, D., Schwander, J., Shoji, H., Siggard-Andersen, M.-L., Steffensen, J. P., Stocker, T., Sveinbjörnsdóttir, A. E., Svensson, A., Takata, M., Tison, J.-L., Thorsteinsson, T., Watanabe, O., Wilhelms, F., White, J. W. C., and members, North Greenland Ice Core Project: High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 431, 147–151, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02805, 2004. a
Aoun, A., Christian, Natalia, xavier, marev711, Bärring, L., bekozi, Bourgault, P., Gasteratos, P., Irving, D., and bascrezee: cerfacs-globc/icclim: 7.0.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11093617, 2024. a, b
Appenzeller, C., Stocker, T. F., and Anklin, M.: North Atlantic Oscillation dynamics recorded in Greenland ice cores, Science, 282, 446–449, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5388.446, 1998. a, b
Bakke, S. J., Ionita, M., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Recent European drying and its link to prevailing large-scale atmospheric patterns, Sci. Rep.-UK, 13, 21921, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-48861-4, 2023. a
Barlow, L. K., White, J. W. C., Barry, R. G., Rogers, J. C., and Grootes, P. M.: The North Atlantic Oscillation signature in deuterium and deuterium excess signals in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Ice Core, 1840–1970, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 2901–2904, https://doi.org/10.1029/93GL03305, 1993. a
Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., and Huth, R.: Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009789, 2008. a
Bradley, R. S.: Chapter 13 – tree rings, in: Paleoclimatology, edited by: Bradley, R. S., Academic Press, San Diego, 3rd edn., https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-386913-5.00013-2, 453–497, 2015. a
Brönnimann, S., Franke, J., Valler, V., Hand, R., Samakinwa, E., Lundstad, E., Burgdorf, A.-M., Lipfert, L., Pfister, L., Imfeld, N., and Rohrer, M.: Past hydroclimate extremes in Europe driven by Atlantic jet stream and recurrent weather patterns, Nat. Geosci., 18, 246–253, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01654-y, 2025. a, b, c, d, e
Casado, M. and Orsi, A. J.: New perspectives on the isotopic paleothermometer, Past Global Changes Magazine, 31, 100–101, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.31.2.100, 2023. a
Chylek, P., Folland, C. K., Dijkstra, H. A., Lesins, G., and Dubey, M. K.: Ice-core data evidence for a prominent near 20 year time-scale of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047501, 2011. a, b
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.: An ensemble version of the E-OBS temperature and precipitation data sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 9391–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018. a, b
Davini, P.: MiLES – Mid Latitude Evaluation System, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2578139, 2019. a, b, c
DelSole, T. and Tippett, M.: Statistical Methods for Climate Scientists, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-1-108-47241-8, 2022. a
Dong, B. and Sutton, R. T.: Drivers and mechanisms contributing to excess warming in Europe during recent decades, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 41, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00930-3, 2025. a
Faranda, D., Messori, G., Jezequel, A., Vrac, M., and Yiou, P.: Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2214525120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120, 2023a. a
Faranda, D., Pascale, S., and Bulut, B.: Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 034030, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbc37, 2023b. a
Franke, J., Valler, V., Brugnara, Y., and Brönnimann, S.: Ensemble Kalman Fitting Paleo-Reanalysis Version 2 (EKF400_v2), https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/EKF400_v2.0, World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ [data set], 2020. a
García-Burgos, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., and García-Herrera, R.: Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2023JD039304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039304, 2023. a
Hatvani, I. G., Topál, D., Ruggieri, E., and Kern, Z.: Concurrent changepoints in Greenland ice core δ18O records and the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past millennium, Atmosphere-Basel, 13, 93, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010093, 2022. a
Holme, C., Gkinis, V., Lanzky, M., Morris, V., Olesen, M., Thayer, A., Vaughn, B. H., and Vinther, B. M.: Varying regional δ18O–temperature relationship in high-resolution stable water isotopes from east Greenland, Clim. Past, 15, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-893-2019, 2019. a, b
Ionita, M. and Nagavciuc, V.: 2024: the year with too much summer in the eastern part of Europe, Weather, 80, 288–295, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.7696, 2025. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2023. a
Jekel, C. F. and Venter, G.: pwlf: A Python Library for Fitting 1D Continuous Piecewise Linear Functions, https://github.com/cjekel/piecewise_linear_fit_py (last access: September 2025), 2019. a
Kadow, C., Hall, D. M., and Ulbrich, U.: Artificial intelligence reconstructs missing climate information, Nat. Geosci., 13, 408–413, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0582-5, 2020. a
Karamperidou, C.: Extracting paleoweather from paleoclimate through a deep learning reconstruction of Last Millennium atmospheric blocking, Communications Earth and Environment, 5, 535, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01687-y, 2024. a
Kautz, L.-A., Martius, O., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., and Woollings, T.: Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022. a, b
Kornhuber, K. and Messori, G.: Recent increase in a recurrent pan-Atlantic wave pattern driving concurrent wintertime extremes, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E1694–E1708, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0295.1, 2023. a
Lockwood, M., Harrison, R. G., Woollings, T., and Solanki, S. K.: Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 024001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001, 2010. a
Ma, Q., Chen, Y., and Ionita, M.: European summer wet-bulb temperature: spatiotemporal variations and potential drivers, J. Climate, 37, 2059–2080, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0420.1, 2024. a
Meeker, L. D., Mayewski, P. A., Twickler, M. S., Whitlow, S. I., and Meese, D.: A 110,000-year history of change in continental biogenic emissions and related atmospheric circulation inferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Ice Core, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 102, 26489–26504, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01492, 1997. a
Ortega, P., Swingedouw, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Vinther, B., Yiou, P., Vautard, R., and Yoshimura, K.: Characterizing atmospheric circulation signals in Greenland ice cores: insights from a weather regime approach, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2585–2605, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2074-z, 2014. a, b
Paik, S., Min, S.-K., Son, S.-W., Lim, E.-P., McGregor, S., An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., and Yeh, S.-W.: Impact of volcanic eruptions on extratropical atmospheric circulations: review, revisit and future directions, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 063003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd5e6, 2023. a
Peixoto, J. P. and Oort, A. H.: Physics of Climate, American Institute of Physics, New York, NY, USA, ISBN 978-0883187128, 1992. a
Pfahl, S.: Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1461–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, 2014. a
Plésiat, É., Dunn, R. J. H., Donat, M. G., and Kadow, C.: Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records, Nat. Commun., 15, 9191, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53464-2, 2024. a, b
Polvani, L. M., Banerjee, A., and Schmidt, A.: Northern Hemisphere continental winter warming following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption: reconciling models and observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6351–6366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019, 2019. a
Rex, D. F.: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effect upon regional climate, Tellus, 2, 196–211, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v2i3.8546, 1950. a
Rimbu, N. and Lohmann, G.: Decadal variability in a central Greenland high-resolution deuterium isotope record and its relationship to the frequency of daily atmospheric circulation patterns from the North Atlantic region, J. Climate, 23, 4608–4618, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3556.1, 2010. a, b
Rimbu, N., Lohmann, G., and Grosfeld, K.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in ice core accumulation records from northern Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029175, 2007. a
Rimbu, N., Lohmann, G., Werner, M., and Ionita, M.: Links between central Greenland stable isotopes, blocking and extreme climate variability over Europe at decadal to multidecadal time scales, Clim. Dynam., 49, 649–663, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3365-3, 2017. a, b
Rimbu, N., Ionita, M., and Lohmann, G.: A synoptic scale perspective on Greenland ice core δ18O variability and related teleconnection patterns, Atmosphere-Basel, 12, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030294, 2021. a, b
Robock, A. and Mao, J.: Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 2405–2408, https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02627, 1992. a
Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model Description, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, ISSN 0937-1060, 2003. a
Scaife, A. A., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Moberg, A., and Knight, J. R.: European climate extremes and the North Atlantic oscillation, J. Climate, 21, 72–83, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1631.1, 2008. a
Schalamon, F. R., Scher, S., Trügler, A., Hartl, L., Schöner, W., and Abermann, J.: The role of large-scale atmospheric patterns for recent warming periods in Greenland from 1900–2015, Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1075–1088, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1075-2025, 2025. a, b
Schaller, N., Griesser, T., Fischer, A., Stickler, A., and Onnimann, S.: Climate effects of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption: historical and present perspectives, Vierteljahrsschrift der Naturforschenden Gesellschaft in Zürich, 154, 31–40, 2009. a
Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., and Davies, H. C.: Perspicacious indicators of atmospheric blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019341, 2004. a, b, c
Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Giese, B. S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Yin, X., Vose, R., Titchner, H., Kennedy, J., Spencer, L. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Crouthamel, R., Domínguez-Castro, F., Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E., Jones, P. D., Jourdain, S., Kaplan, A., Kubota, H., Blancq, F. L., Lee, T.-C., Lorrey, A., Luterbacher, J., Maugeri, M., Mock, C. J., Moore, G. K., Przybylak, R., Pudmenzky, C., Reason, C., Slonosky, V. C., Smith, C. A., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Valente, M. A., Wang, X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K., and Wyszyński, P.: Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 2876–2908, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598, 2019. a, b
Tejedor, E., Polvani, L. M., Steiger, N. J., Vuille, M., and Smerdon, J. E.: No evidence of winter warming in Eurasia following large, low-latitude volcanic eruptions during the last millennium, J. Climate, 37, 5653–5673, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0625.1, 2024. a
Tibaldi, S. and Molteni, F.: On the operational predictability of blocking, Tellus A, 42, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x, 1990. a, b, c
Trevisiol, A., Gilli, L., and Faggian, P.: Short and long-term projections of Rossby wave packets and blocking events with particular attention to the Northern Hemisphere, Global Planet. Change, 209, 103750, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103750, 2022. a
Valler, V., Franke, J., Brugnara, Y., and Brönnimann, S.: An updated global atmospheric paleo-reanalysis covering the last 400 years, Geosci. Data J., 9, 89–107, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.121, 2022. a, b, c
Vautard, R., Cattiaux, J., Happé, T., Singh, J., Bonnet, R., Cassou, C., Coumou, D., D'Andrea, F., Faranda, D., Fischer, E., Ribes, A., Sippel, S., and Yiou, P.: Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends, Nat. Commun., 14, 6803, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3, 2023. a
Vinther, B. M., Johnsen, S. J., Andersen, K. K., Clausen, H. B., and Hansen, A. W.: NAO signal recorded in the stable isotopes of Greenland ice cores, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016193, 2003. a, b
Vinther, B., Jones, P., Briffa, K., Clausen, H., Andersen, K., Dahl-Jensen, D., and Johnsen, S.: Climatic signals in multiple highly resolved stable isotope records from Greenland, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 522–538, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.002, 2010. a
Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2, 1981. a
Weißbach, S., Wegner, A., Opel, T., Oerter, H., Vinther, B. M., and Kipfstuhl, S.: Spatial and temporal oxygen isotope variability in northern Greenland – implications for a new climate record over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 12, 171–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-171-2016, 2016. a
Wilks, D. S.: “The stippling shows statistically significant grid points”: how research results are routinely overstated and overinterpreted, and what to do about it, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 2263–2273, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00267.1, 2016. a
Woods, O. T. and Baldini, J. U. L.: The impact of hemispherically asymmetrical volcanic aerosol injections on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Sci. Rep.-UK, 15, 31329, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-16232-w, 2025. a
Woollings, T., Lockwood, M., Masato, G., Bell, C., and Gray, L.: Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044601, 2010. a, b
Xu, G., Broadman, E., Dorado-Liñán, I., Klippel, L., Meko, M., Büntgen, U., De Mil, T., Esper, J., Gunnarson, B., Hartl, C., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Ljungqvist, F. C., Ludlow, F., Panayotov, M., Seim, A., Wilson, R., Zamora-Reyes, D., and Trouet, V.: Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 CE, Nature, 634, 600–608, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x, 2024. a
Yan, H., Liu, C., An, Z., Yang, W., Yang, Y., Huang, P., Qiu, S., Zhou, P., Zhao, N., Fei, H., Ma, X., Shi, G., Dodson, J., Hao, J., Yu, K., Wei, G., Yang, Y., Jin, Z., and Zhou, W.: Extreme weather events recorded by daily to hourly resolution biogeochemical proxies of marine giant clam shells, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 7038–7043, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916784117, 2020. a
Yao, Y. and Luo, D.: An asymmetric spatiotemporal connection between the Euro-Atlantic blocking within the NAO life cycle and European climates, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35, 796–812, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7128-9, 2018. a, b
Yiou, P. and Nogaj, M.: Extreme climatic events and weather regimes over the North Atlantic: when and where?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019119, 2004. a
Yiou, P., García de Cortázar-Atauri, I., Chuine, I., Daux, V., Garnier, E., Viovy, N., van Leeuwen, C., Parker, A. K., and Boursiquot, J.-M.: Continental atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Little Ice Age inferred from grape harvest dates, Clim. Past, 8, 577–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-577-2012, 2012. a
Short summary
This study shows that stable oxygen isotope ratios from Greenland ice cores can help identify extreme winter events in Europe. In years with a lack of the heavier oxygen isotope, we found changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe. These changes bring warmer, wetter conditions to the Norwegian coast and colder, drier conditions to southern Europe. The pattern appears in both recent and past periods, staying stable over the last 400 years.
This study shows that stable oxygen isotope ratios from Greenland ice cores can help identify...
