Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2561-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Distinct winter North Atlantic climate responses to tropical and extratropical eruptions over the last millennium in PMIP simulations and reconstructions
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- Final revised paper (published on 08 Dec 2025)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 22 Jul 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3471', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Aug 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Qin Tao, 08 Oct 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3471', Anonymous Referee #2, 31 Aug 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Qin Tao, 08 Oct 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (20 Oct 2025) by Julien Emile-Geay
AR by Qin Tao on behalf of the Authors (22 Oct 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (21 Nov 2025) by Julien Emile-Geay
AR by Qin Tao on behalf of the Authors (23 Nov 2025)
Manuscript
Summary: The study analyses the response of volcanic eruptions in a set of climate model simulations , comparing them with proxy-based temperature and circulation reconstructions, over the past millennium. The study distinguishes between tropical and extratropical eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere. The main results are, in my interpretation, that the qualitative response is , first, strongly dependent on whether or not the eruptions have been tropical; it also strongly depends on the model, and on the forcing data set of past volcanic aerosols.
The study is motivated by a series of prior publications that also target the response of the atmospheric circulation to volcanic eruptions, which have found somewhat contradictory results. Whereas it seemed clear that the reconstructions did show a shift towards a positive NAO state and thus an Eurasian warming after eruptions. The modelled response was not that clear. Some studies, e.g., Tejedor et al. and Polvani et al., suggested that there was no response at all, and that the signal from the reconstructions, at least at the surface level, is just random internal variability.
This study offers an alternative interpretation, suggesting that the unclear signal derived from simulations may be due to differences among models and to differences in the volcanic aerosol data sets used to force the models. They find that the more recent forcing data, along with a focus on the most realistic models, allow them to identify a consistent signal, particularly for tropical eruptions.
Recommendation: I found the study interesting, and the manuscript is well-written. It can be somewhat controversial, as it does not agree with those previous studies, but I am happy to recommend it for publication. I have a few suggestions that the authors may want to consider:
1) If my interpretation of the framing of the study is correct, I would suggest stating more clearly in the abstract
the conceptual links to those prior analyses, explaining briefly why this study is important. The current abstract sounds correct, but it does not clearly convey the present backdrop and where this study fits.
2) In my opinion, one key figure of the manuscript is Figure 5 (also Figure 6). However, I had to stare at Figure 5 for a long time to fully grasp the message. First, it won't be easy for many readers to see all the details. The purportedly grey dashed lines showing the sigma and 2xsigma bounds can barely be discerned; actually, what the reader sees are other grey dashed lines marking the zero anomalies for both axes. Additionally, the zero grey lines are not visible in all panels, and the reader may wonder if there is a hidden meaning behind this omission. The explanation of the circle colour is also left to the figure inlet in the first panel, and it is not mentioned in the caption. The caption also states that the circle sizes, displaying the magnitude of the eruptions, are normalised to the Samalas eruption. Thus each panel should have one largest red circle of the same size (the Samalas eruption). However, this does not seem to be the case for all panels, e.g., not for MPI-ESM-P CEA or ACCES evolv2k.
My recommendation is that the authors give further thought to this complex yet important figure.
3) One of the previous hypotheses is that there is no NAO response or Eurasian temperature response. This study retorts that the choice of model and forcing data is, or can be, important, and that the signal may have been smeared out by different model responses and differences in the forcing data. One way to contribute to clarifying this question is to look at a one-model simulation ensemble. If the MPI-ESM-P model, according to the authors, is one of the more realistic models in this regard, would it be possible to examine the ensembles of historical simulations with this model for the Pinatubo eruption? What is the spread in that ensemble? Marking the Pinatubo eruption (perhaps with green colour) in the panels of Figure 5 would also help.
4) The resolution of the figures needs to be improved. Many of them are multiple panels of relatively small size. A finer resolution would help the reader