Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025
Rapid communication
 | 
25 Jun 2025
Rapid communication |  | 25 Jun 2025

Rapid communication: Nonlinear sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation across climate states

Gabriel M. Pontes, Pedro L. da Silva Dias, and Laurie Menviel

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Cited articles

Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., and Arkin, P.​​​​​​​: The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147–1167, 2003. 
Burke, K. D., Williams, J. W., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., and Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 13288–13293, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809600115, 2018. 
Cai, W., Wang, G., Dewitte, B., Wu, L., Santoso, A., Takahashi, K., Yang, Y., Carréric, A., and McPhaden, M. J.: Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming, Nature, 564, 201–206, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0776-9, 2018. 
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Short summary
El Niño events are the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability. Understanding how El Niño activity is affected by different climate states is of great relevance to agriculture, water, ecosystem, and climate risk management. Through analysis of past and future climate simulations, we show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sensitivity to mean state changes is nonlinear and, to some extent, shaped by atmospheric CO2 levels.
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