Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Rapid communication
| 
25 Jun 2025
Rapid communication |
| 25 Jun 2025
| 25 Jun 2025
Rapid communication: Nonlinear sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation across climate states
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Pedro L. da Silva Dias
Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Laurie Menviel
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Related authors
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Zanna Chase, Karen E. Kohfeld, Amy Leventer, David Lund, Xavier Crosta, Laurie Menviel, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jacob Jones, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Elisabeth Sikes, Louise C. Sime, and Luke Skinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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The impact of recent dramatic declines in Antarctic sea ice on the Earth system are uncertain. We reviewed how sea ice affects ocean circulation, ice sheets, winds, and the carbon cycle by considering theory and modern observations alongside paleo-proxy reconstructions. We found evidence for connections between sea ice and these systems but also conflicting results, which point to missing knowledge. Our work highlights the complex role of sea ice in the Earth system.
Bartholomé Duboc, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Babette Hoogakker, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 21, 1093–1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, 2025
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We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–115 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e (∼ 336–321 ka). The global ocean is overall less oxygenated compared to the preindustrial simulation. Large regions in the Mediterranean Sea are oxygen deprived in the Last Interglacial simulation, and to a lesser extent in the MIS 9e simulation, due to an intensification and expansion of the African monsoon and enhanced river runoff.
Iuri Gorenstein, Ilana Wainer, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Luciana F. Prado, Pedro L. S. Dias, Allegra N. LeGrande, Clay R. Tabor, and William R. Peltier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Using a new approach based on information theory we study climate variability in the tropical and South Atlantic by examining broad patterns in ocean and rainfall data at decadal scales. Four climate models under mid‐Holocene and pre‐industrial conditions show that shifts in vegetation and dust yield varied weather responses. Our findings indicate that incorporating large-scale patterns provides a framework for understanding long-term climate behavior, offering insights for improved predictions.
Himadri Saini, David K. Hutchinson, Josephine R. Brown, Russell N. Drysdale, Yanxuan Du, and Laurie Menviel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1990, 2025
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This study examines how large ice sheets during the last Ice Age influenced global weather patterns. We found that the presence of these ice sheets affected rainfall patterns in regions like Eurasia and Australia. By altering wind and weather systems, they shifted the position of the tropical rainbelt and impacted the circulation of air in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Our research helps us understand past climate changes and their potential effects on future climate patterns.
Ana-Cristina Mârza, Laurie Menviel, and Luke C. Skinner
Geochronology, 6, 503–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-503-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-503-2024, 2024
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Radiocarbon serves as a powerful dating tool, but the calibration of marine radiocarbon dates presents significant challenges because the whole surface ocean cannot be represented by a single calibration curve. Here we use climate model outputs and data to assess a novel method for developing regional marine calibration curves. Our results are encouraging and point to a way forward for solving the marine radiocarbon age calibration problem without relying on model simulations of the past.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
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Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving southern high latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 changes and AMOC changes are the primary drivers of the major warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The multi-model analysis highlights the model’s sensitivity of CO2, AMOC to meltwater, and the meltwater history on temperature changes in southern high latitudes.
Laurie C. Menviel, Paul Spence, Andrew E. Kiss, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Hakase Hayashida, Matthew H. England, and Darryn Waugh
Biogeosciences, 20, 4413–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, 2023
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As the ocean absorbs 25% of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on the flux of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere. Here, we use a very high-resolution ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model to show that the capability of the Southern Ocean to uptake CO2 has decreased over the last 40 years due to a strengthening and poleward shift of the southern hemispheric westerlies. This trend is expected to continue over the coming century.
Carolina B. Gramcianinov, Joanna Staneva, Celia R. G. Souza, Priscila Linhares, Ricardo de Camargo, and Pedro L. da Silva Dias
State Planet, 1-osr7, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-12-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-12-2023, 2023
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We analyse extreme wave event trends in the south-western South Atlantic in the last 29 years using wave products and coastal hazard records. The results show important regional changes associated with increased mean sea wave height, wave period, and wave power. We also find a rise in the number of coastal hazards related to waves affecting the state of São Paulo, Brazil, which partially agrees with the increase in extreme waves in the adjacent ocean sector but is also driven by local factors.
Himadri Saini, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, and Karin Kvale
Clim. Past, 19, 1559–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1559-2023, 2023
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Understanding the changes in atmospheric CO2 during the last glacial cycle is crucial to comprehend the impact of climate change in the future. Previous research has hypothesised a key role of greater aeolian iron input into the Southern Ocean in influencing the global atmospheric CO2 levels by impacting the changes in the marine phytoplankton response. In our study, we test this iron hypothesis using climate modelling and constrain the impact of ocean iron supply on global CO2 decrease.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
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Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Dipayan Choudhury, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Matthew Chamberlain, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 18, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, 2022
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We investigate the effects of a warmer climate from the Earth's paleoclimate (last interglacial) on the marine carbon cycle of the Southern Ocean using a carbon-cycle-enabled state-of-the-art climate model. We find a 150 % increase in CO2 outgassing during this period, which results from competition between higher sea surface temperatures and weaker oceanic circulation. From this we unequivocally infer that the carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean will reduce under a future warming scenario.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Jun Shao, Lowell D. Stott, Laurie Menviel, Andy Ridgwell, Malin Ödalen, and Mayhar Mohtadi
Clim. Past, 17, 1507–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1507-2021, 2021
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Planktic and shallow benthic foraminiferal stable carbon isotope
(δ13C) data show a rapid decline during the last deglaciation. This widespread signal was linked to respired carbon released from the deep ocean and its transport through the upper-ocean circulation. Using numerical simulations in which a stronger flux of respired carbon upwells and outcrops in the Southern Ocean, we find that the depleted δ13C signal is transmitted to the rest of the upper ocean through air–sea gas exchange.
André Seiji Wakate Teruya, Breno Raphaldini, Victor Chavez Mayta, Carlos Frederico Mendonça Raupp, and Pedro Leite da Silva Dias
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-21, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The dynamics of the equatorial troposphere is incredibly complex. Several types of waves constitute the core of the theoretical understanding of tropical dynamics. Signatures of these waves are observed in the spectrum of atmospheric variables. We decompose the atmospheric winds into their wave contributions. A spectral analysis of these fields reveal important departures from the linear theory of equatorial waves, suggesting a possible role of nonlinearity in the propagation of these waves.
Nicholas King-Hei Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Andréa S. Taschetto, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021
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The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is characterised by strong orbital forcing compared to the pre-industrial period (PI). This study compares the mean climate state of the LIG to the PI as simulated by the ACCESS-ESM1.5, with a focus on the southern hemispheric monsoons, which are shown to be consistently weakened. This is associated with cooler terrestrial conditions in austral summer due to decreased insolation, and greater pressure and subsidence over land from Hadley cell strengthening.
Shannon A. Bengtson, Laurie C. Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Lise Missiaen, Carlye D. Peterson, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021
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The last interglacial was a warm period that may provide insights into future climates. Here, we compile and analyse stable carbon isotope data from the ocean during the last interglacial and compare it to the Holocene. The data show that Atlantic Ocean circulation was similar during the last interglacial and the Holocene. We also establish a difference in the mean oceanic carbon isotopic ratio between these periods, which was most likely caused by burial and weathering carbon fluxes.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
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As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Daniel P. Lowry, Nicholas R. Golledge, Laurie Menviel, and Nancy A. N. Bertler
Clim. Past, 15, 189–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-189-2019, 2019
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Using two climate models, we seek to better understand changes in Antarctic climate and Southern Ocean conditions during the last deglaciation. We highlight the importance of sea ice and ice topography changes for Antarctic surface temperatures and snow accumulation as well as the sensitivity of Southern Ocean temperatures to meltwater fluxes. The results demonstrate that climate model simulations of the deglaciation could be greatly improved by considering ice–ocean interactions and feedbacks.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
L. Menviel, A. Timmermann, T. Friedrich, and M. H. England
Clim. Past, 10, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Pleistocene
More is not always better: delta-downscaling climate model outputs from 30 to 5 min resolution has minimal impact on coherence with Late Quaternary proxies
Simulated ocean oxygenation during the interglacials MIS 5e and MIS 9e
A stretched polar vortex increased mid-latitude climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum
Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling
Contrasting responses of summer precipitation to orbital forcing in Japan and China over the past 450 kyr
Investigating similarities and differences of the penultimate and last glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model
Last Glacial Maximum climate and atmospheric circulation over the Australian region from climate models
Uncertainties originating from GCM downscaling and bias correction with application to the MIS-11c Greenland Ice Sheet
Surface mass balance and climate of the Last Glacial Maximum Northern Hemisphere ice sheets: simulations with CESM2.1
A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years
Atmosphere–cryosphere interactions during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) in the European Alps
Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka
On the importance of moisture conveyor belts from the tropical eastern Pacific for wetter conditions in the Atacama Desert during the mid-Pliocene
Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial
No changes in overall AMOC strength in interglacial PMIP4 time slices
The role of ice-sheet topography in the Alpine hydro-climate at glacial times
Simulating glacial dust changes in the Southern Hemisphere using ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3
Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model
The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe
Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Simulating Marine Isotope Stage 7 with a coupled climate–ice sheet model
Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations
Hypersensitivity of glacial summer temperatures in Siberia
Distorted Pacific–North American teleconnection at the Last Glacial Maximum
Understanding the Australian Monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum with a multi-model ensemble
Effect of high dust amount on surface temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum: a modelling study using MIROC-ESM
The role of regional feedbacks in glacial inception on Baffin Island: the interaction of ice flow and meteorology
Quantifying the influence of the terrestrial biosphere on glacial–interglacial climate dynamics
Intra-interglacial climate variability: model simulations of Marine Isotope Stages 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15
A GCM comparison of Pleistocene super-interglacial periods in relation to Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Arctic Russia
Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene
Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years
Simulating last interglacial climate with NorESM: role of insolation and greenhouse gases in the timing of peak warmth
Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics
Assessing the impact of Laurentide Ice Sheet topography on glacial climate
Interdependence of the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glaciation: the role of atmospheric circulation
Different ocean states and transient characteristics in Last Glacial Maximum simulations and implications for deglaciation
Why could ice ages be unpredictable?
Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate
The last interglacial (Eemian) climate simulated by LOVECLIM and CCSM3
LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
Tropical vegetation response to Heinrich Event 1 as simulated with the UVic ESCM and CCSM3
Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model
A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum
Modelling snow accumulation on Greenland in Eemian, glacial inception, and modern climates in a GCM
Modelling large-scale ice-sheet–climate interactions following glacial inception
Sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate to Greenland Ice Sheet melting during the Last Interglacial
Lucy Timbrell, James Blinkhorn, Margherita Colucci, Michela Leonardi, Manuel Chevalier, Andrea Vittorio Pozzi, Matt Grove, Eleanor Scerri, and Andrea Manica
Clim. Past, 21, 1185–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1185-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1185-2025, 2025
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Scientists study past climate change using proxies (e.g. pollen) and models. Proxies offer detailed snapshots but are limited in number, while models provide broader coverage but at low resolution. Models are typically downscaled to 30 arcmin, but it is unclear if this is sufficient. We found that increasing models to 5 arcmin does not improve their coherence with climate reconstructed from pollen data. Optimal model resolution depends on research need, balancing detail with error.
Bartholomé Duboc, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Babette Hoogakker, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 21, 1093–1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, 2025
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We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–115 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e (∼ 336–321 ka). The global ocean is overall less oxygenated compared to the preindustrial simulation. Large regions in the Mediterranean Sea are oxygen deprived in the Last Interglacial simulation, and to a lesser extent in the MIS 9e simulation, due to an intensification and expansion of the African monsoon and enhanced river runoff.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, Heikki Seppä, Zhen Li, and Xingrui Li
Clim. Past, 21, 67–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-67-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-67-2025, 2025
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The upper and lower atmospheres interact. The polar regions, with high-speed, cyclonically rotating winds, provide a window through which upper winds affect surface weather and climate variability. By analysing climate model results, we found that ice sheets induced anomalous upward wave propagation and stretched the rotating winds towards North America, increasing the likelihood of cold-air outbreaks at the mid-latitudes. This accounts for the enhanced winter cooling at these latitudes.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Owen, Robin S. Smith, Oliver G. Pollard, Lachlan C. Astfalck, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2191–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, 2024
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Simulations of the last two glacial periods are run using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The results show that the initial conditions used in the simulations are the primary reason for the difference in simulated North American ice sheet volume between each period. Thus, the climate leading up to the glacial maxima and other factors, such as vegetation, are important contributors to the differences in the ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima.
Taiga Matsushita, Mariko Harada, Hiroaki Ueda, Takeshi Nakagawa, Yoshimi Kubota, Yoshiaki Suzuki, and Youichi Kamae
Clim. Past, 20, 2017–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2017-2024, 2024
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We present a climate simulation using version 2.3 of the Meteorological Research Institute's Coupled General Circulation Model (MRI-CGCM2.3) to examine the impact of insolation changes on East Asian summer monsoon variability over the past 450 kyr. We show that changes in summer insolation over East Asia led to distinct climatic responses in China and Japan, driven by altered atmospheric circulation due to the intensification of the North Pacific subtropical high and the North Pacific High.
Aurélien Quiquet and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 20, 1365–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024, 2024
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In this work, we use the same experimental protocol to simulate the last two glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model. Major differences among the two terminations are that the ice sheets retreat earlier and the Atlantic oceanic circulation is more prone to collapse during the penultimate termination. However, for both terminations the pattern of ice retreat is similar, and this retreat is primarily explained by orbital forcing changes and greenhouse gas concentration changes.
Yanxuan Du, Josephine R. Brown, and J. M. Kale Sniderman
Clim. Past, 20, 393–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-393-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-393-2024, 2024
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This study provides insights into regional Australian climate variations (temperature, precipitation, wind, and atmospheric circulation) during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 kyr ago) and the interconnections between climate variables in different seasons from climate model simulations. Model results are evaluated and compared with available palaeoclimate proxy records. Results show model responses diverge widely in both the tropics and mid-latitudes in the Australian region.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
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An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
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To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Costanza Del Gobbo, Renato R. Colucci, Giovanni Monegato, Manja Žebre, and Filippo Giorgi
Clim. Past, 19, 1805–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1805-2023, 2023
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We studied atmosphere–cryosphere interaction during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Alpine region, using a high-resolution regional climate model. We analysed the climate south and north of the Alps, using a detailed map of the Alpine equilibrium line altitude (ELA) to study the mechanism that sustained the Alpine glaciers at 21 ka. The Genoa low and a mild Mediterranean Sea led to frequent snowfall in the southern Alps, thus preserving the glaciers and lowering the ELA.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
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It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
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In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Zhiyi Jiang, Chris Brierley, David Thornalley, and Sophie Sax
Clim. Past, 19, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, 2023
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This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. We show that there are no robust changes in the overall strength of the circulation. We also show that the circulation hardly plays a role in changes in the surface climate across the globe.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
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We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
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We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021
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In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice-sheet–climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events, and rapid warming at high latitudes is here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
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This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, 2021
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The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) critically depends on its mean state. We simulate the response of the AMOC to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations under different glacial boundary conditions. We find that a closed Bering Strait greatly increases the AMOC's sensitivity to freshwater hosing. Further, the shift from mono- to bistability strongly depends on the chosen boundary conditions, with weaker circulation states exhibiting more abrupt transitions.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Dipayan Choudhury, Axel Timmermann, Fabian Schloesser, Malte Heinemann, and David Pollard
Clim. Past, 16, 2183–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, 2020
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Our study is the first study to conduct transient simulations over MIS 7, using a 3-D coupled climate–ice sheet model with interactive ice sheets in both hemispheres. We find glacial inceptions to be more sensitive to orbital variations, whereas glacial terminations need the concerted action of both orbital and CO2 forcings. We highlight the issue of multiple equilibria and an instability due to stationary-wave–topography feedback that can trigger unrealistic North American ice sheet growth.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Robert Beyer, Mario Krapp, and Andrea Manica
Clim. Past, 16, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, 2020
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Even the most sophisticated global climate models are known to have significant biases in the way they simulate the climate system. Correcting model biases is therefore essential for creating realistic reconstructions of past climate that can be used, for example, to study long-term ecological dynamics. Here, we evaluated three widely used bias correction methods by means of a global dataset of empirical temperature and precipitation records from the last 125 000 years.
Pepijn Bakker, Irina Rogozhina, Ute Merkel, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, 2020
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Northeastern Siberia is currently known for its harsh cold climate, but remarkably it did not experience large-scale glaciation during the last ice age. We show that the region is also exceptional in climate models. As a result of subtle changes in model setup, climate models show a strong divergence in simulated glacial summer temperatures that is ultimately driven by changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport to northeastern Siberia.
Yongyun Hu, Yan Xia, Zhengyu Liu, Yuchen Wang, Zhengyao Lu, and Tao Wang
Clim. Past, 16, 199–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, 2020
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The paper shows, using climate simulations, that the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection was distorted or completely broken at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results suggest that ENSO would have little direct impact on North American climates at the LGM.
Mi Yan, Bin Wang, Jian Liu, Axing Zhu, Liang Ning, and Jian Cao
Clim. Past, 14, 2037–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, 2018
Rumi Ohgaito, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Toshihiko Takemura, Akinori Ito, Tomohiro Hajima, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 14, 1565–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, 2018
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The behaviour of dust in terms of climate can be investigated using past climate. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21000 years before present) is known to be dustier. We investigated the impact of plausible dust distribution on the climate of the LGM using an Earth system model and found that the higher dust load results in less cooling over the polar regions. The main finding is that radiative perturbation by the high dust loading does not necessarily cool the surface surrounding Antarctica.
Leah Birch, Timothy Cronin, and Eli Tziperman
Clim. Past, 14, 1441–1462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1441-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1441-2018, 2018
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We investigate the regional dynamics at the beginning of the last ice age, using a nested configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a simple ice flow model. We find that ice sheet height causes a negative feedback on continued ice growth by interacting with the atmospheric circulation, causing warming on Baffin Island, and inhibiting the initiation of the last ice age. We conclude that processes at larger scales are needed to overcome the regional warming effect.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Andy Ridgwell, Joy Singarayer, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 13, 1381–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, 2017
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We present the first model analysis using a fully coupled dynamic atmosphere–ocean–vegetation GCM over the last 120 kyr that quantifies the net effect of vegetation on climate. This analysis shows that over the whole period the biogeophysical effect (albedo, evapotranspiration) is dominant, and that the biogeochemical impacts may have a lower possible range than typically estimated. This emphasises the temporal reliance of the balance between biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects.
Rima Rachmayani, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 12, 677–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, 2016
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A set of 13 interglacial time slice experiments was carried out using a CCSM3-DGVM to study global climate variability between and within the Quaternary interglaciations of MIS 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15. Seasonal surface temperature anomalies can be explained by local insolation anomalies induced by the astronomical forcing in most regions and by GHG forcing at high latitudes and early Bruhnes interglacials. However, climate feedbacks may modify the surface temperature response in specific regions.
A. J. Coletti, R. M. DeConto, J. Brigham-Grette, and M. Melles
Clim. Past, 11, 979–989, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, 2015
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Evidence from Pleistocene sediments suggest that the Arctic's climate went through multiple sudden transitions, warming by 2-4 °C (compared to preindustrial times), and stayed warm for hundreds to thousands of years. A climate modelling study of these events suggests that the Arctic's climate and landscape drastically changed, transforming a cold and barren landscape as we know today to a warm, lush, evergreen and boreal forest landscape only seen in the modern midlatitudes.
P. A. Araya-Melo, M. Crucifix, and N. Bounceur
Clim. Past, 11, 45–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, 2015
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By using a statistical tool termed emulator, we study the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon during the the Pleistocene. The originality of the present work is to consider, as inputs, several elements of the climate forcing that have varied in the past, and then use the emulator as a method to quantify the link between forcing variability and climate variability. The methodology described here may naturally be applied to other regions of interest.
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
P.M. Langebroek and K. H. Nisancioglu
Clim. Past, 10, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, 2014
I. Suter, R. Zech, J. G. Anet, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 1183–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, 2014
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 10, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, 2014
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 9, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, 2013
M.-O. Brault, L. A. Mysak, H. D. Matthews, and C. T. Simmons
Clim. Past, 9, 1761–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, 2013
I. Nikolova, Q. Yin, A. Berger, U. K. Singh, and M. P. Karami
Clim. Past, 9, 1789–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1789-2013, 2013
K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa
Clim. Past, 9, 1697–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, 2013
D. Handiani, A. Paul, M. Prange, U. Merkel, L. Dupont, and X. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, 2013
T. Tharammal, A. Paul, U. Merkel, and D. Noone
Clim. Past, 9, 789–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-789-2013, 2013
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013
H. J. Punge, H. Gallée, M. Kageyama, and G. Krinner
Clim. Past, 8, 1801–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1801-2012, 2012
J. M. Gregory, O. J. H. Browne, A. J. Payne, J. K. Ridley, and I. C. Rutt
Clim. Past, 8, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, 2012
P. Bakker, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, and H. Renssen
Clim. Past, 8, 995–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, 2012
Cited articles
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Short summary
El Niño events are the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability. Understanding how El Niño activity is affected by different climate states is of great relevance to agriculture, water, ecosystem, and climate risk management. Through analysis of past and future climate simulations, we show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sensitivity to mean state changes is nonlinear and, to some extent, shaped by atmospheric CO2 levels.
El Niño events are the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability. Understanding how El...
