Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-495-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-495-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
CO2-driven and orbitally driven oxygen isotope variability in the Early Eocene
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA
Christopher J. Poulsen
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA
Jiang Zhu
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
Jessica E. Tierney
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
Jeremy Keeler
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA
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Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Christopher Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, and can be used in case of large eruption in the future.
Xiaodong Zhang, Brett J. Tipple, Jiang Zhu, William D. Rush, Christian A. Shields, Joseph B. Novak, and James C. Zachos
Clim. Past, 20, 1615–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024, 2024
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This study is motivated by the current anthropogenic-warming-forced transition in regional hydroclimate. We use observations and model simulations during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) to constrain the regional/local hydroclimate response. Our findings, based on multiple observational evidence within the context of model output, suggest a transition toward greater aridity and precipitation extremes in central California during the PETM.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Jonathan King, Jessica Tierney, Matthew Osman, Emily J. Judd, and Kevin J. Anchukaitis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5653–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5653-2023, 2023
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Paleoclimate data assimilation is a useful method that allows researchers to combine climate models with natural archives of past climates. However, it can be difficult to implement in practice. To facilitate this method, we present DASH, a MATLAB toolbox. The toolbox provides routines that implement common steps of paleoclimate data assimilation, and it can be used to implement assimilations for a wide variety of time periods, spatial regions, data networks, and analytical algorithms.
Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Jian Sun, Richard Forbes, Zachary McGraw, Jiang Zhu, Trude Storelvmo, and John Dennis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, 2023
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Clouds are a critical part of weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the description of clouds used in several Earth system models. These updates include the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs), changes to the numerical description of precipitation, and a correction to the ice number. There are big improvements in the computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration.
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 19, 323–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, 2023
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The relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum and the sensitivity of climate models to a doubling of CO2 can be used to estimate the true sensitivity of the Earth. However, this relationship has varied in successive model generations. In this study, we assess multiple processes at the Last Glacial Maximum which weaken this relationship. For example, how models respond to the presence of ice sheets is a large contributor of uncertainty.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Jiang Zhu and Christopher J. Poulsen
Clim. Past, 17, 253–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-253-2021, 2021
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Climate sensitivity has been directly calculated from paleoclimate data. This approach relies on good understandings of climate forcings and interactions within the Earth system. We conduct Last Glacial Maximum simulations using a climate model to quantify the forcing and efficacy of ice sheets and greenhouse gases and to directly estimate climate sensitivity in the model. Results suggest that the direct calculation overestimates the truth by 25 % due to neglecting ocean dynamical feedback.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Cenozoic
The warm winter paradox in the Pliocene northern high latitudes
Evolution of continental temperature seasonality from the Eocene greenhouse to the Oligocene icehouse –a model–data comparison
Impacts of Tibetan Plateau uplift on atmospheric dynamics and associated precipitation δ18O
Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction
A model–model and data–model comparison for the early Eocene hydrological cycle
A massive input of coarse-grained siliciclastics in the Pyrenean Basin during the PETM: the missing ingredient in a coeval abrupt change in hydrological regime
The relative roles of CO2 and palaeogeography in determining late Miocene climate: results from a terrestrial model–data comparison
Regional climate model experiments to investigate the Asian monsoon in the Late Miocene
The early Eocene equable climate problem revisited
High resolution climate and vegetation simulations of the Late Pliocene, a model-data comparison over western Europe and the Mediterranean region
Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Ulrich Salzmann, Aisling M. Dolan, and Tamara Fletcher
Clim. Past, 18, 1385–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022, 2022
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The mid-Pliocene (MP; ∼3.0 Ma) had CO2 levels similar to today and average temperatures ∼3°C warmer. At terrestrial high latitudes, MP temperatures from climate models are much lower than those reconstructed from data. This mismatch occurs in the winter but not the summer. The winter model–data mismatch likely has multiple causes. One novel cause is that the MP climate may be outside the modern sample, and errors could occur when using information from the modern era to reconstruct climate.
Agathe Toumoulin, Delphine Tardif, Yannick Donnadieu, Alexis Licht, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Lutz Kunzmann, and Guillaume Dupont-Nivet
Clim. Past, 18, 341–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-341-2022, 2022
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Temperature seasonality is an important climate parameter for biodiversity. Fossil plants describe its middle Eocene to early Oligocene increase in the Northern Hemisphere, but underlying mechanisms have not been studied in detail yet. Using climate simulations, we map global seasonality changes and show that major contemporary forcing – atmospheric CO2 lowering, Antarctic ice-sheet expansion and particularly related sea level drop – participated in this phenomenon and its spatial distribution.
Svetlana Botsyun, Pierre Sepulchre, Camille Risi, and Yannick Donnadieu
Clim. Past, 12, 1401–1420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1401-2016, 2016
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We use an isotope-equipped GCM and develop original theoretical expression for the precipitation composition to assess δ18O of paleo-precipitation changes with the Tibetan Plateau uplift. We show that δ18O of precipitation is very sensitive to climate changes related to the growth of mountains, notably changes in relative humidity and precipitation amount. Topography is shown to be not an exclusive controlling factor δ18O in precipitation that have crucial consequences for paleoelevation studies
Guido W. Grimm and Alastair J. Potts
Clim. Past, 12, 611–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-611-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-611-2016, 2016
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We critically assess, for the first time since its inception in 1997, the theory behind the Coexistence Approach. This method has reconstructed purportedly accurate, often highly precise, palaeoclimates for a wide range of Cenozoic Eurasian localities. We argue that its basic assumptions clash with modern biological and statistical theory and that its modus operandi is fundamentally flawed. We provide guidelines on how to establish robust taxon-based palaeoclimate reconstruction methods.
Matthew J. Carmichael, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Malte Heinemann, Jeffrey Kiehl, Allegra LeGrande, Claire A. Loptson, Chris D. Roberts, Navjit Sagoo, Christine Shields, Paul J. Valdes, Arne Winguth, Cornelia Winguth, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 12, 455–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we assess how well model-simulated precipitation rates compare to those indicated by geological data for the early Eocene, a warm interval 56–49 million years ago. Our results show that a number of models struggle to produce sufficient precipitation at high latitudes, which likely relates to cool simulated temperatures in these regions. However, calculating precipitation rates from plant fossils is highly uncertain, and further data are now required.
V. Pujalte, J. I. Baceta, and B. Schmitz
Clim. Past, 11, 1653–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1653-2015, 2015
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An abrupt increase in seasonal precipitation during the PETM in the Pyrenean Gulf has been proposed, based on the occurrence of extensive fine-grained siliciclastic deposits. This paper provides evidence that coarse-grained siliciclastics were also delivered, indicative of episodes of intense rainy intervals in an otherwise semiarid PETM climate. Further, evidence is presented that PETM kaolinites were most likely resedimented from Cretaceous lateritic profiles developed in the basement.
C. D. Bradshaw, D. J. Lunt, R. Flecker, U. Salzmann, M. J. Pound, A. M. Haywood, and J. T. Eronen
Clim. Past, 8, 1257–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1257-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1257-2012, 2012
H. Tang, A. Micheels, J. Eronen, and M. Fortelius
Clim. Past, 7, 847–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-847-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-847-2011, 2011
M. Huber and R. Caballero
Clim. Past, 7, 603–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-603-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-603-2011, 2011
A. Jost, S. Fauquette, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, G. Ramstein, J.-P. Suc, and S. Violette
Clim. Past, 5, 585–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-585-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-585-2009, 2009
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Short summary
In this study, we use climate modeling to investigate the relative impact of CO2 and orbit on Early Eocene (~ 55 million years ago) climate and compare our modeled results to fossil records to determine the context for the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, the most extreme hyperthermal in the Cenozoic. Our conclusions consider limitations and illustrate the importance of climate models when interpreting paleoclimate records in times of extreme warmth.
In this study, we use climate modeling to investigate the relative impact of CO2 and orbit on...