Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 03 Dec 2024
| 03 Dec 2024
A global Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns from 21 000–0 BP (DAMP-21ka) using lake level proxy records
Christopher L. Hancock
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
Michael P. Erb
School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
Nicholas P. McKay
School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
Sylvia G. Dee
Department of Earth, Environmental, & Planetary Sciences, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA
Ruza F. Ivanovic
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Related authors
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
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To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Laura Endres, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Anna L. C. Hughes, Hai Cheng, and Heather Stoll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3911, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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Stable isotope data of a precisely dated stalagmite from northwestern Iberia indicate gradual North Atlantic meltwater input during the last glacial maximum, followed by abrupt surges early in the last deglaciation. The first abrupt surge was followed by cooling about 850 years later – unlike later events – which reveals that the Atlantic circulation’s sensitivity to meltwater is variable and related to the evolving background climate boundary conditions.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
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This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Alice R. Paine, Joost Frieling, Timothy M. Shanahan, Tamsin A. Mather, Nicholas McKay, Stuart A. Robinson, David M. Pyle, Isabel M. Fendley, Ruth Kiely, and William D. Gosling
Clim. Past, 21, 817–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-817-2025, 2025
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Few tropical mercury (Hg) records extend beyond ~ 12 ka, meaning our current understanding of Hg behaviour may not fully account for the impact of long-term hydroclimate changes on the Hg cycle in these environments. Here, we present an ~ 96 kyr Hg record from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana. A coupled response is observed between Hg flux and shifts in sediment composition reflective of changes in lake level, suggesting that hydroclimate may be a key driver of tropical Hg cycling over millennial timescales.
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 627–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, 2025
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During the Last Deglaciation, global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 °C over several millennia. We show that changes in year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in 15 climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater, and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Stephen Cornford, Jonathan Owen, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, and Robin S. Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3896, 2025
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Simulations of the last two glacial periods are ran using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The model is able to produce ice sheet volumes, extents and dynamics in good agreement with data. Sensitivity analysis is undertaken and shows the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet size is particularly sensitive to the albedo of the ice in the model but the different ice sheets display different sensitivities to other processes.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Owen, Robin S. Smith, Oliver G. Pollard, Lachlan C. Astfalck, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2191–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, 2024
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Simulations of the last two glacial periods are run using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The results show that the initial conditions used in the simulations are the primary reason for the difference in simulated North American ice sheet volume between each period. Thus, the climate leading up to the glacial maxima and other factors, such as vegetation, are important contributors to the differences in the ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima.
Laura J. Larocca, James M. Lea, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Megan Phillips, Kara A. Lamantia, and Darrell S. Kaufman
The Cryosphere, 18, 3591–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, 2024
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Here we present summer snowline altitude (SLA) time series for 269 Arctic glaciers. Between 1984 and 2022, SLAs rose ∼ 150 m, equating to a ∼ 127 m shift per 1 °C of summer warming. SLA is most strongly correlated with annual temperature variables, highlighting their dual effect on ablation and accumulation processes. We show that SLAs are rising fastest on low-elevation glaciers and that > 50 % of the studied glaciers could have SLAs that exceed the maximum ice elevation by 2100.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
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Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Michelle O'Donnell, Kelsey Murphy, James Doss-Gollin, Sylvia Dee, and Samuel Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-153, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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We investigate the skill of CESM1 in simulating hydrologic processes over the Mississippi River basin. Model simulated discharge is seasonally delayed relative to observations: model biases are diagnosed using hydroclimate variables from reanalysis data and attributed primarily to precipitation and runoff related processes. We also show that the seasonality of simulated runoff in several CMIP6 models is improved relative to CESM1.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
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Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Rachel M. Walter, Hussein R. Sayani, Thomas Felis, Kim M. Cobb, Nerilie J. Abram, Ariella K. Arzey, Alyssa R. Atwood, Logan D. Brenner, Émilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Bethany Ellis, Julien Emile-Geay, Matthew J. Fischer, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jessica A. Hargreaves, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Hedwig Krawczyk, Nicholas P. McKay, Andrea L. Moore, Sujata A. Murty, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Riovie D. Ramos, Emma V. Reed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Sara C. Sanchez, Jens Zinke, and the PAGES CoralHydro2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2081–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, 2023
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Accurately quantifying how the global hydrological cycle will change in the future remains challenging due to the limited availability of historical climate data from the tropics. Here we present the CoralHydro2k database – a new compilation of peer-reviewed coral-based climate records from the last 2000 years. This paper details the records included in the database and where the database can be accessed and demonstrates how the database can investigate past tropical climate variability.
Jan Petřík, Katarína Adameková, Sándor Kele, Rastislav Milovský, Libor Petr, Peter Tóth, and Nicholas McKay
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-118, 2023
Preprint archived
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Our analysis of the Santovka sedimentary record in Slovakia uncovered two major climate shifts at 8.2 and 7.4 ka BP. These shifts likely impacted temperature and humidity, and/or air mass circulation, and were caused by the drying of the lake at 7.4 ka BP. The sedimentary infill provides important information on the region's past climate, and future research must focus on its impact on the last hunter gatherers and first farmers in the context of spreading agriculture in Europe.
Suzanne Robinson, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Julia Tindall, Tina van de Flierdt, Yves Plancherel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Kazuyo Tachikawa, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1231–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023, 2023
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We present the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes into the ocean model of FAMOUS (Nd v1.0). Nd fluxes from seafloor sediment and incorporation of Nd onto sinking particles represent the major global sources and sinks, respectively. However, model–data mismatch in the North Pacific and northern North Atlantic suggest that certain reactive components of the sediment interact the most with seawater. Our results are important for interpreting Nd isotopes in terms of ocean circulation.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
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To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Suzanne Robinson, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Lachlan Astfalck, Tina van de Flierdt, Yves Plancherel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, and Kazuyo Tachikawa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937, 2022
Preprint archived
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The neodymium (Nd) isotope (εNd) scheme in the ocean model of FAMOUS is used to explore a benthic Nd flux to seawater. Our results demonstrate that sluggish modern Pacific waters are sensitive to benthic flux alterations, whereas the well-ventilated North Atlantic displays a much weaker response. In closing, there are distinct regional differences in how seawater acquires its εNd signal, in part relating to the complex interactions of Nd addition and water advection.
Stephanie H. Arcusa, Nicholas P. McKay, Charlotte Wiman, Sela Patterson, Samuel E. Munoz, and Marco A. Aquino-López
Geochronology, 4, 409–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022, 2022
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Annually banded lake sediment can track environmental change with high resolution in locations where alternatives are not available. Yet, information about chronology is often affected by poor appearance. Traditional methods struggle with these records. To overcome this obstacle we demonstrate a Bayesian approach that combines information from radiocarbon dating and laminations on cores from Columbine Lake, Colorado, expanding possibilities for producing high-resolution records globally.
Darrell S. Kaufman and Nicholas P. McKay
Clim. Past, 18, 911–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022, 2022
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Global mean surface temperatures are rising to levels unprecedented in over 100 000 years. This conclusion takes into account both recent global warming and likely future warming, which thereby enables a direct comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions on multi-century timescales.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
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We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Nicholas P. McKay, Julien Emile-Geay, and Deborah Khider
Geochronology, 3, 149–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021, 2021
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This paper describes geoChronR, an R package that streamlines the process of quantifying age uncertainties, propagating uncertainties through several common analyses, and visualizing the results. In addition to describing the structure and underlying theory of the package, we present five real-world use cases that illustrate common workflows in geoChronR. geoChronR is built on the Linked PaleoData framework, is open and extensible, and we welcome feedback and contributions from the community.
Chris S. M. Turney, Richard T. Jones, Nicholas P. McKay, Erik van Sebille, Zoë A. Thomas, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, 2020
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The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) experienced global temperatures and sea levels higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) are uncertain. We report a global network of sea surface temperatures. We find mean global annual temperature anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1˚C and an early maximum peak of 0.9 ± 0.1˚C. Our reconstruction suggests warmer waters contributed on average 0.08 ± 0.1 m and a peak contribution of 0.39 ± 0.1 m to global sea level.
Andy R. Emery, David M. Hodgson, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Carol J. Cotterill, Janet C. Richardson, Ruza F. Ivanovic, and Claire L. Mellett
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 869–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-869-2020, 2020
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During the last ice age, sea level was lower, and the North Sea was land. The margin of a large ice sheet was at Dogger Bank in the North Sea. This ice sheet formed large rivers. After the ice sheet retreated down from the high point of Dogger Bank, the rivers had no water supply and dried out. Increased precipitation during the 15 000 years of land exposure at Dogger Bank formed a new drainage network. This study shows how glaciation and climate changes can control how drainage networks evolve.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Ilkka S. O. Matero, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4555–4577, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4555-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4555-2020, 2020
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The Northern Hemisphere cooled by several degrees for a century 8000 years ago due to the collapse of an ice sheet in North America that released large amounts of meltwater into the North Atlantic and slowed down its circulation. We numerically model the ice sheet to understand its evolution during this event. Our results match data thanks to good ice dynamics but depend mostly on surface melt and snowfall. Further work will help us understand how past and future ice melt affects climate.
Bronwen L. Konecky, Nicholas P. McKay, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Laia Comas-Bru, Emilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Georgina M. Falster, Matt J. Fischer, Matthew D. Jones, Lukas Jonkers, Darrell S. Kaufman, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, Belen Martrat, Thomas Opel, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Hussein R. Sayani, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Diane M. Thompson, Jonathan J. Tyler, Nerilie J. Abram, Alyssa R. Atwood, Olivier Cartapanis, Jessica L. Conroy, Mark A. Curran, Sylvia G. Dee, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Zoltán Kern, Trevor J. Porter, Samantha L. Stevenson, Lucien von Gunten, and Iso2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2261–2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, 2020
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Short summary
We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data–model disagreement in east Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns, as well as orbital forcing, are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation...
