Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 12 Nov 2024
| 12 Nov 2024
The comparative role of physical system processes in Hudson Strait ice stream cycling: a comprehensive model-based test of Heinrich event hypotheses
Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1B 3X7, Canada
Lev Tarasov
Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1B 3X7, Canada
Related authors
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3268, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To simulate the past evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during past warm and cold periods, a modelling analysis was performed that compared thousands of AIS simulations to a large collection of field observations. As the AIS changes, so does the surface load which leads to crustal deformation, gravitational and sea-level change. The present-day rate of bedrock deformation due to past AIS changes is used with satellite observations to infer AIS changes due to contemporary climate change.
Ryan Love, Glenn A. Milne, Parviz Ajourlou, Soran Parang, Lev Tarasov, and Konstantin Latychev
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8535–8551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8535-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8535-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A relatively recent advance in glacial isostatic adjustment modeling has been the development of models that include 3D Earth structure, as opposed to 1D structure. However, a major limitation is the computational expense. We have developed a method using artificial neural networks to emulate the influence of 3D Earth models to affordably constrain the viscosity parameter space. Our results indicate that the misfits are of a scale such that useful predictions of relative sea level can be made.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 ka by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~10,000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to present of 9.2 to 26.5 meters equivalent sea-level relative to present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing ice problem.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model the sediment-ice-climate system over North America for the last 2.58 Myr showing that ice sheets are capable of excavating features the size of the Hudson bay. This work provides a basis for reconstructing past landscapes important to climate modelling efforts, helping us to understand past earth system change.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Benoit S. Lecavalier, Lev Tarasov, Greg Balco, Perry Spector, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Christo Buizert, Catherine Ritz, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Robert Mulvaney, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Michael J. Bentley, and Jonathan Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3573–3596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution constraint database version 2 (AntICE2) consists of a large variety of observations that constrain the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last glacial cycle. This includes observations of past ice sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. The database is intended to improve our understanding of past Antarctic changes and for ice sheet model calibrations.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This overview: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have little interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out some tractable inferential steps for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This review: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have limited interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out tractable Bayesian inference for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Ryan Love, Heather J. Andres, Alan Condron, and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 17, 2327–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability and climate transitions. We track the routing of glaciologically constrained freshwater volumes in glacial ocean simulations. Our simulations capture important generally not well-represented small-scale features (boundary currents, eddies). We show that the dilution of freshwater as it is transported to key climate regions reduces the freshening to 20 %–60 %.
Taimaz Bahadory, Lev Tarasov, and Heather Andres
Clim. Past, 17, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of last glacial inception simulations using a fully coupled ice–climate model for the Northern Hemisphere. The ensemble largely captures inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. Notable features include an ice bridge across Davis Strait and between Greenland and Iceland. Via an equilibrium climate response experiment, we also demonstrate the potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Heather J. Andres and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 15, 1621–1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Abrupt climate shifts of large magnitudes were common during glacial states, with explanations centred on the oceans. However, winds drive ocean surface currents so shifts in mean wind conditions could also have played a critical role. In a small ensemble of transient deglacial simulations, we find abrupt shifts in both jet stream location and variability over the North Atlantic. We show that the eastern North American ice sheet margin strongly constrains regional jet characteristics.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Taimaz Bahadory and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3883-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new coupling between the Glacial Systems Model and the
LOVECLIM intermediate complexity climate model. The coupling is
distinguished from that of previous studies by greater completeness
and accuracy, with the intent of capturing the major feedbacks between
ice sheets and climate on glacial cycle timescales. The fully coupled
model will be used to examine the ice/climate phase space of past
glacial cycles.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Mark Kavanagh and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3497–3513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3497-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate BrAHMs (BAsal Hydrology Model): a new
physically based basal hydrology model, which captures the two main
types of subglacial drainage systems (high-pressure distributed systems and
low-pressure channelized systems). BrAHMs is designed for continental
glacial cycle scale contexts, for which computational speed is
essential. This speed is accomplished, in part, by numerical methods
novel to basal hydrology contexts.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Mohammad Hizbul Bahar Arif, Lev Tarasov, and Tristan Hauser
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-276, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This study is a first step answer to the following question: Can you
use emulators (machine learning techniques) to make the output of fast
simple climate models (a 2-D energy balance model in this test case)
indistinguishable from that of a much more computationally expensive
General Circulation climate model (GCM) within the uncertainties of
GCMs? Our preliminary test of this concept for large spatio-temporal
contexts gives a positive answer.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Masa Kageyama, Didier M. Roche, Paul J. Valdes, Andrea Burke, Rosemarie Drummond, W. Richard Peltier, and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript presents the experiment design for the PMIP4 Last Deglaciation Core experiment: a transient simulation of the last deglaciation, 21–9 ka. Specified model boundary conditions include time-varying orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, ice meltwater fluxes and other geographical changes (provided for 26–0 ka). The context of the experiment and the choices for the boundary conditions are explained, along with the future direction of the working group.
André Düsterhus, Alessio Rovere, Anders E. Carlson, Benjamin P. Horton, Volker Klemann, Lev Tarasov, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Tom Bradwell, Jorie Clark, Andrea Dutton, W. Roland Gehrels, Fiona D. Hibbert, Marc P. Hijma, Nicole Khan, Robert E. Kopp, Dorit Sivan, and Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Clim. Past, 12, 911–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This review/position paper addresses problems in creating new interdisciplinary databases for palaeo-climatological sea-level and ice-sheet data and gives an overview on new advances to tackle them. The focus therein is to define and explain strategies and highlight their importance to allow further progress in these fields. It also offers important insights into the general problem of designing competitive databases which are also applicable to other communities within the palaeo-environment.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
K. Le Morzadec, L. Tarasov, M. Morlighem, and H. Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3199–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A long-term challenge for any model of complex large-scale processes
is accounting for the impact of unresolved sub-grid (SG) processes.
We quantify the impact of SG mass-balance and ice fluxes on glacial
cycle ensemble results for North America. We find no easy solutions to
accurately capture these impacts. We show that SG process
representation and associated parametric uncertainties can have
significant impact on coarse resolution model results for glacial
cycle ice sheet evolution.
H. Beltrami, G. S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath, and J. E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 10, 1693–1706, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, 2014
R. Briggs, D. Pollard, and L. Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 7, 1949–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Ice Dynamics | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Sensitivity of Heinrich-type ice-sheet surge characteristics to boundary forcing perturbations
Ocean-driven millennial-scale variability of the Eurasian ice sheet during the last glacial period simulated with a hybrid ice-sheet–shelf model
Impact of millennial-scale oceanic variability on the Greenland ice-sheet evolution throughout the last glacial period
The Antarctic Ice Sheet response to glacial millennial-scale variability
The role of basal hydrology in the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet
Clemens Schannwell, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, and Marie-Luise Kapsch
Clim. Past, 19, 179–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heinrich-type ice-sheet surges are recurring events over the course of the last glacial cycle during which large numbers of icebergs are discharged from the Laurentide ice sheet into the ocean. These events alter the evolution of the global climate. Here, we use model simulations of the Laurentide ice sheet to identify and quantify the importance of various climate and ice-sheet parameters for the simulated surge cycle.
Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Rubén Banderas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 15, 957–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-957-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The last glacial period was marked by the existence of of abrupt climatic changes; it is generally accepted that the presence of ice sheets played an important role in their occurrence. While an important effort has been made to investigate the dynamics and evolution of the Laurentide ice sheet during this period, the Eurasian ice sheet (EIS) has not received much attention. Here we investigate the response of the EIS to millennial-scale climate variability using a hybrid 3-D ice-sheet model.
Ilaria Tabone, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 15, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-593-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-593-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
By using a 3-D hybrid ice-sheet–shelf model, we investigate the impact of millennial-scale oceanic variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) evolution during the last glacial period (LGP). We show that the GrIS may have strongly reacted to oceanic temperature fluctuations associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, contributing to sea-level variations of more than 1 m. Our results open the chance for a non-negligible role of the GrIS in millennial-scale oceanic reorganisations during the LGP.
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 15, 121–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-121-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-121-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The LGP is a period punctuated by the presence of several abrupt climate events and sea-level variations of up to 20 m at millennial timescales. The origin of those fluctuations is attributed to NH paleo ice sheets, but a contribution from the AIS cannot be excluded. Here, for the first time, we investigate the response of the AIS to millennial climate variability using an ice sheet–shelf model. We shows that the AIS produces substantial sea-level rises and grounding line migrations.
William H. G. Roberts, Antony J. Payne, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 12, 1601–1617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
There are observations from ocean sediment cores that during the last ice age the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which sat over North America, periodically surged. In this study we show the role that water at the base of an ice sheet plays in these surges. We show that with a more realistic representation of water drainage at the base of the ice sheet than usually used, these surges can still occur and that they are triggered by an internal ice sheet instability; no external trigger is needed.
Cited articles
Alley, R. B. and MacAyeal, D. R.: Ice-rafted debris associated with binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, Paleoceanography, 9, 503–511, https://doi.org/10.1029/94PA01008, 1994. a
Alley, R. B., Anandakrishnan, S., Christianson, K., Horgan, H. J., Muto, A., Parizek, B. R., Pollard, D., and Walker, R. T.: Oceanic forcing of ice-sheet retreat: West Antarctica and more, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sc., 43, 207–231, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060614-105344, 2015. a
Alvarez-Solas, J., Charbit, S., Ritz, C., Paillard, D., Ramstein, G., and Dumas, C.: Links between ocean temperature and iceberg discharge during Heinrich events, Nat. Geosci., 3, 122–126, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo752, 2010. a
Álvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M., Ritz, C., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Nisancioglu, K., Dokken, T., and Ganopolski, A.: Heinrich event 1: An example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes, Clim. Past, 7, 1297–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1297-2011, 2011. a
Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., and Ritz, C.: Iceberg discharges of the last glacial period driven by oceanic circulation changes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 16350–16354, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1306622110, 2013. a, b, c
Bazin, L., Landais, A., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H., Veres, D., Parrenin, F., Martinerie, P., Ritz, C., Capron, E., Lipenkov, V., Loutre, M.-F., Raynaud, D., Vinther, B., Svensson, A., Rasmussen, S. O., Severi, M., Blunier, T., Leuenberger, M., Fischer, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Chappellaz, J., and Wolff, E.: An optimized multi-proxy, multi-site Antarctic ice and gas orbital chronology (AICC2012): 120–800 ka, Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013. a
Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., Petoukhov, V., Claussen, M., and Greve, R.: Large-scale instabilities of the Laurentide ice sheet simulated in a fully coupled climate-system model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016078, 2002. a, b
Clement, A. C. and Peterson, L. C.: Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period, Rev. Geophys., 46, RG4002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000204, 2008. a
Courant, R., Friedrichs, K., and Lewy, H.: Über die partiellen Differenzengleichungen der mathematischen Physik, Mathematische Annalen, 100, 32–74, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01448839, 1928. a
Cuesta-Valero, F. J., García-García, A., Beltrami, H., González-Rouco, J. F., and García-Bustamante, E.: Long-term global ground heat flux and continental heat storage from geothermal data, Clim. Past, 17, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, 2021. a, b
Davies, J. H.: Global map of solid Earth surface heat flow, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 14, 4608–4622, https://doi.org/10.1002/ggge.20271, 2013. a, b, c
Deblonde, G., Peltier, W. R., and Hyde, W. T.: Simulations of continental ice sheet growth over the last glacial-interglacial cycle: Experiments with a one level seasonal energy balance model including seasonal ice albedo feedback, Global Planet. Change, 6, 37–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(92)90021-2, 1992. a
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016. a
Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Lenaerts, J. T., Ligtenberg, S. R., Van Den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G.: Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12567, 2013. a
De Vernal, A., Hillaire-Marcel, C., Turon, J. L., and Matthiessen, J.: Reconstruction of sea-surface temperature, salinity, and sea-ice cover in the northern North Atlantic during the last glacial maximum based on dinocyst assemblages, Can. J. Earth Sci., 37, 725–750, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes-37-5-725, 2000. a
Drew, M.: The role of fully coupled ice sheet basal processes in quaternary glacial cycles, PhD thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland, https://doi.org/10.48336/74Z6-9585, 2023. a
Drew, M. and Tarasov, L.: Surging of a Hudson Strait-scale ice stream: subglacial hydrology matters but the process details mostly do not, The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023. a, b
Enderlin, E. M. and Howat, I. M.: Submarine melt rate estimates for floating termini of Greenland outlet glaciers (2000–2010), J. Glaciol., 59, 67–75, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J049, 2013. a
Flowers, G. E.: A multicomponent coupled model of glacier hydrology, PhD thesis, University of British Columbia, https://doi.org/10.14288/1.0053158, 2000. a
Flowers, G. E. and Clarke, G. K. C.: A multicomponent coupled model of glacier hydrology 1. Theory and synthetic examples, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 107, ECV 9-1–ECV 9-17, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001jb001122, 2002. a
Gibb, O. T., Hillaire-Marcel, C., and de Vernal, A.: Oceanographic regimes in the northwest Labrador Sea since Marine Isotope Stage 3 based on dinocyst and stable isotope proxy records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 92, 269–279, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.12.010, 2014. a, b
Goutorbe, B., Poort, J., Lucazeau, F., and Raillard, S.: Global heat flow trends resolved from multiple geological and geophysical proxies, Geophys. J. Int., 187, 1405–1419, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05228.x, 2011. a, b
Grousset, F. E., Labeyrie, L., Sinko, J. a., Bond, G., Duprat, J., and Cortijo, E.: Patterns of Ice-Rafted Detritus in the Glacial North Atlantic (40–55° N), Atlantic, 8, 175–192, https://doi.org/10.1029/92PA02923, 1993. a
Gwiazda, R., Hemming, S., and Broecker, W.: Provenance of icebergs during Heinrich Event 3 and the contrast to their sources during other Heinrich episodes, Paleoceanography, 11, 371–378, https://doi.org/10.1029/96PA01022, 1996. a
Hank, K.: Supplementary material for “The comparative role of system processes in Hudson Strait ice stream cycling: a comprehensive model-based test of Heinrich event hypotheses”, Zenodo [video supplement], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10214928, 2023. a, b, c, d
Hank, K.: Simulation output of the reference setup in “The comparative role of physical system processes in Hudson Strait ice stream cycling: a comprehensive model-based test of Heinrich event hypotheses”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13840063, 2024. a
Heinrich, H.: Origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean during the past 130,000 years, Quatern. Res., 29, 142–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(88)90057-9, 1988. a
Hesse, R., Klauck, I., Khodabakhsh, S., and Piper, D.: Continental slope sedimentation adjacent to an ice margin. III. The upper Labrador Slope, Mar. Geol., 155, 249–276, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(98)00054-1, 1999. a
Hillaire-Marcel, C., De Vernal, A., Bilodeau, G., and Wu, G.: Isotope stratigraphy, sedimentation rates, deep circulation, and carbonate events in the Labrador Sea during the last ∼200 ka, Can. J. Earth Sci., 31, 63–89, https://doi.org/10.1139/e94-007, 1994. a
Hodell, D., Evans, H., Channell, J., and Curtis, J.: Phase relationships of North Atlantic ice-rafted debris and surface-deep climate proxies during the last glacial period, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 3875–3886, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.09.006, 2010. a
Hulbe, C.: An ice shelf mechanism for Heinrich layer production, Paleoceanography, 12, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.1029/97PA02014, 1997. a, b
Jaupart, C., Mareschal, J. C., Bouquerel, H., and Phaneuf, C.: The building and stabilization of an Archean Craton in the Superior Province, Canada, from a heat flow perspective, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 119, 9130–9155, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011018, 2014. a, b
Jessop, A. M. and Judge, A. S.: Five Measurements of Heat Flow in Southern Canada, Can. J. Earth Sci., 8, 711–716, https://doi.org/10.1139/e71-069, 1971. a, b
Lawson, D. E., Strasser, J. C., Evenson, E. B., Alley, R. B., Larson, G. J., and Arcone, S. A.: Glaciohydraulic supercooling: a freeze-on mechanism to create stratified, debris-rich basal ice: I. Field evidence, J. Glaciol., 44, 547–562, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000002069, 1998. a
Lazeroms, W. M., Jenkins, A., Hilmar Gudmundsson, G., and Van De Wal, R. S.: Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelvesusing a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes, The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018. a
Levy, F., Jaupart, C., Mareschal, J. C., Bienfait, G., and Limare, A.: Low heat flux and large variations of lithospheric thickness in the Canadian Shield, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 115, 1–23,https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JB006470, 2010. a, b
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001071, 2005. a
Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., He, F., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R., Clark, P. U., Carlson, A. E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E., Erickson, D., Jacob, R., Kutzbach, J., and Cheng, J.: Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bolling-Allerod Warming, Science, 325, 310–314, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1171041, 2009. a
Lucazeau, F.: Analysis and Mapping of an Updated Terrestrial Heat Flow Data Set, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 20, 4001–4024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GC008389, 2019. a, b
MacAyeal, D. R.: Binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide Ice Sheet as a cause of the North Atlantic's Heinrich events, Paleoceanography, 8, 775–784, https://doi.org/10.1029/93PA02200, 1993. a, b, c
Maier, N., Gimbert, F., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Gilbert, A.: Basal traction mainly dictated by hard-bed physics over grounded regions of Greenland, The Cryosphere, 15, 1435–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1435-2021, 2021. a
Marcott, S. A., Clark, P. U., Padman, L., Klinkhammer, G. P., Springer, S. R., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Carlson, A. E., Ungerer, A., Padman, J., He, F., Cheng, J., and Schmittner, A.: Ice-shelf collapse from subsurface warming as a trigger for Heinrich events, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 13415–13419, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1104772108, 2011. a, b, c
Meyer, C. R., Robel, A. A., and Rempel, A. W.: Frozen fringe explains sediment freeze-on during Heinrich events, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 524, 115725, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115725, 2019. a
Naafs, B. D., Hefter, J., and Stein, R.: Millennial-scale ice rafting events and Hudson Strait Heinrich(-like) Events during the late Pliocene and Pleistocene: A review, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 80, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.08.014, 2013. a
Payne, A. J.: Limit cycles in the basal thermal regime of ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 100, 4249–4263, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JB02778, 1995. a, b
Pollack, H. N., Hurter, S. J., and Johnson, J. R.: Heat flow from the Earth's interior: Analysis of the global data set, Rev. Geophys., 31, 267–280, https://doi.org/10.1029/93RG01249, 1993. a, b
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1273–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1273-2012, 2012. a, b, c, d
Pollard, D. and Deconto, R. M.: Improvements in one-dimensional grounding-line parameterizations in an ice-sheet model with lateral variations (PSUICE3D v2.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6481–6500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6481-2020, 2020. a, b
Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., and Alley, R. B.: Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 412, 112–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035, 2015. a
Rasmussen, T. L. and Thomsen, E.: The role of the North Atlantic Drift in the millennial timescale glacial climate fluctuations, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl. Palaeoecol., 210, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2004.04.005, 2004. a
Reese, R., Winkelmann, R., and Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.: Grounding-line flux formula applied as a flux condition in numerical simulations fails for buttressed Antarctic ice streams, The Cryosphere, 12, 3229–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, 2018. a
Roberts, W. H., Valdes, P. J., and Payne, A. J.: A new constraint on the size of Heinrich Events from an iceberg/sediment model, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 386, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.10.020, 2014. a, b, c
Roberts, W. H., Payne, A. J., and Valdes, P. J.: The role of basal hydrology in the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, Clim. Past, 12, 1601–1617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, 2016. a
Sanford, B. and Grant, A.: Paleozoic and Mesozoic geology of the Hudson and southeast Arctic Platforms, Geological Survey of Canada, https://doi.org/10.4095/210108, 1998. a
Schannwell, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., and Kapsch, M.-L.: Sensitivity of Heinrich-type ice-sheet surge characteristics to boundary forcing perturbations, Clim. Past, 19, 179–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, 2023. a, b, c
Schannwell, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Kapsch, M. L., and Ziemen, F.: A mechanism for reconciling the synchronisation of Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, Nat. Commun., 15, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47141-7, 2024. a, b
Schoof, C.: Marine ice-sheet dynamics. Part 1. The case of rapid sliding, J. Fluid Mech., 573, 27–55, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112006003570, 2007. a, b
Shapiro, N. M. and Ritzwoller, M. H.: Inferring surface heat flux distributions guided by a global seismic model: Particular application to Antarctica, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 223, 213–224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.011, 2004. a, b
Tarasov, L. and Goldstein, M.: Assessing uncertainty in past ice and climate evolution: overview, stepping-stones, and challenges, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, 2023. a
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: A high-resolution model of the 100 ka ice-age cycle, Ann. Glaciol., 25, 58–65, https://doi.org/10.3189/s026030550001380x, 1997. a, b
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Impact of thermomechanical ice sheet coupling on a model of the 100 kyr ice age cycle, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 9517–9545, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200120, 1999. a
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Coevolution of continental ice cover and permafrost extent over the last glacial-interglacial cycle in North America, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000661, 2007. a
Tsai, V. C., Stewart, A. L., and Thompson, A. F.: Marine ice-sheet profiles and stability under Coulomb basal conditions, J. Glaciol., 61, 205–215, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J221, 2015. a
Veres, D., Bazin, L., Landais, A., Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Parrenin, F., Martinerie, P., Blayo, E., Blunier, T., Capron, E., Chappellaz, J., Rasmussen, S. O., Severi, M., Svensson, A., Vinther, B., and Wolff, E. W.: The Antarctic ice core chronology (AICC2012): an optimized multi-parameter and multi-site dating approach for the last 120 thousand years, Clim. Past, 9, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013, 2013. a
Virtanen, P., Gommers, R., Oliphant, T. E., Haberland, M., Reddy, T., Cournapeau, D., Burovski, E., Peterson, P., Weckesser, W., Bright, J., van der Walt, S. J., Brett, M., Wilson, J., Millman, K. J., Mayorov, N., Nelson, A. R. J., Jones, E., Kern, R., Larson, E., Carey, C. J., Polat, I., Feng, Y., Moore, E. W., VanderPlas, J., Laxalde, D., Perktold, J., Cimrman, R., Henriksen, I., Quintero, E. A., Harris, C. R., Archibald, A. M., Ribeiro, A. H., Pedregosa, F., van Mulbregt, P., Vijaykumar, A., Bardelli, A. P., Rothberg, A., Hilboll, A., Kloeckner, A., Scopatz, A., Lee, A., Rokem, A., Woods, C. N., Fulton, C., Masson, C., Häggström, C., Fitzgerald, C., Nicholson, D. A., Hagen, D. R., Pasechnik, D. V., Olivetti, E., Martin, E., Wieser, E., Silva, F., Lenders, F., Wilhelm, F., Young, G., Price, G. A., Ingold, G.-L., Allen, G. E., Lee, G. R., Audren, H., Probst, I., Dietrich, J. P., Silterra, J., Webber, J. T., Slavič, J., Nothman, J., Buchner, J., Kulick, J., Schönberger, J. L., de Miranda Cardoso, J. V., Reimer, J., Harrington, J., Rodríguez, J. L. C., Nunez-Iglesias, J., Kuczynski, J., Tritz, K., Thoma, M., Newville, M., Kümmerer, M., Bolingbroke, M., Tartre, M., Pak, M., Smith, N. J., Nowaczyk, N., Shebanov, N., Pavlyk, O., Brodtkorb, P. A., Lee, P., McGibbon, R. T., Feldbauer, R., Lewis, S., Tygier, S., Sievert, S., Vigna, S., Peterson, S., More, S., Pudlik, T., Oshima, T., Pingel, T. J., Robitaille, T. P., Spura, T., Jones, T. R., Cera, T., Leslie, T., Zito, T., Krauss, T., Upadhyay, U., Halchenko, Y. O., Vázquez-Baeza, Y., and SciPy 1.0 Contributors: SciPy 1.0: fundamental algorithms for scientific computing in Python, Nat. Meth., 17, 261–272, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2, 2020. a
Short summary
The ice-rafted debris signature of Heinrich events in marine sedimentary cores is usually attributed to massive ice discharge from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, the driving mechanism of this pulsed discharge remains unclear. We compare three previously proposed hypotheses and examine the role of relevant system processes. We find ice stream surge cycling is the most likely mechanism, but its character is sensitive to both the geothermal heat flux and the form of the basal drag law.
The ice-rafted debris signature of Heinrich events in marine sedimentary cores is usually...
